Jared Kushner: Israel, Palestine, Hamas, Gaza, Iran, and the Middle East | Lex Fridman Podcast #399
co_MeKSnyAo • 2023-10-11
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Kind: captions Language: en the following is a conversation with Jared Kushner former senior adviser to the president during the Donald Trump Administration and author of breaking history a White House Memoir he's one of the most influential and effective presidential advisers in modern history helping conduct negotiations with some of the most powerful leaders in the world and deliver results on trade Criminal Justice Reform and historic progress towards peace in the Middle East on Thursday October 5th we recorded conversation on topics of War and Peace history and Power in the Middle East and Beyond this was about a day and a half before the Hamas attack on Israel and then we felt we must sit down again on Monday October 9th and add a discussion on the current situation we open the podcast with the second newly recorded part my heart goes out to everyone who has and is suffering in this war I pray for your strength and for the long-term peace and flourishing of the Israeli and Palestinian people I love you all this is Alex Freedman podcast and now dear friends here's Jared Krishna we did a lot of this conversation before the Hamas attack on Israel and we decided to sit down again and finish the discussion to address the current situation which is still developing if I may allow me to SU omiz the situation as it stands today it's morning Monday October 9th on Saturday October 7th at 6:30 a.m. Israel time Hamas fired thousands of rockets into Southern Israel the rocket attack served as cover for a multi-pronged infiltration of Israel territory by over 1,000 Hamas militants this is shortly after at 7:40 a.m. the Hamas militans went door too in Border towns killing civilians and taking captives including women and children in response to this Israeli Air Force began carrying out strikes in Gaza also fighting on the ground in Israel to clear out Hamas militants from Israel territory and preparing to mobilize Israeli troops for potential ground attack on Hamas and Gaza now of course this is what it appears to be right now and this along with other things might change because the the situation is still developing the IDF is ordering civilian residents of Gaza to evacuate their homes for their safety Benjamin n yahu declared war in several statements and warned Israelis to brace themselves for a long and difficult War just today Israeli ministers ordered a quote Complete Siege of Gaza interrupting supplies of electricity food water and fuel from Israel to Gaza as of now October 9th the death toll is over 1,200 people and over 130 hostages taken to Gaza by Hamas uh so as I said the events are rapidly unfolding so these numbers will sadly increase uh but hopefully our words here can at least in part speak to the the Timeless underlying currents of the history and uh as you write about the power dynamics of the region so for people who don't know Gaza is a 25 mil long 6 Mi wide strip of territory along the Mediterranean Sea it borders Israel on the east and north and Egypt on the Southwest it's densely populated about 2.3 million people and there's been a blockade of Gaza by Israel and Egypt since 2007 when Hamas took power I could just summarize that Hamas is a Palestinian militant Group which rules the Gaza Strip it originated in 1988 and it came to power in Gaza in 2006 as part of his Charter it's SW War to the destruction of Israel and it is designated by the United States European Union UK and of course Israel as a terrorist group so given that context what are your feelings as a human being uh and what is your analysis as the former senior advisor to the president under the Trump administration of the current situation in Israel and Gaza so I I think you did an excellent job of summarizing a lot of the the context but watching what's unfolded over the last 48 hours has been truly heartbreaking to see we're still in the early stages of what's developing but seeing the images uh on X of um you know militants terrorists going door too with machine guns gunting down innocent civilians uh seeing beheaded Israeli soldiers seeing uh young 20-year-olds at a rave uh a dance party to celebrate peace uh with militants flying in and then you know shooting machine guns to to kill people indiscriminately uh seeing uh young children uh captive and then held prisoner seeing 80-year-old grandmothers a holocaust Survivor also being taken captive uh these are just images and actions that we have not seen in this world since uh 911 this is a terror attack on the scale of which uh we have not seen and it's been incredibly hard for a lot of people to comprehend um my heart goes out obviously to uh all of the the families of the victims uh to the families of those who are held uh in captive now and uh to all of Israel because one of the beautiful things about the state of Israel is that when one Israeli is hurting the entire nation comes together uh it's a shame that it's taking an action like this to unify the nation but I have seen uh incredibly uh beautiful signs over the last 48 hours of a country coming together uh the Jewish people have been under oppression before uh the Jewish people know what it's like and seeing people rally together to uh fight for their Homeland to to to try to reestablish safety uh is is um is a very beautiful thing to watch I wish it wasn't something we had to watch but it is uh with that being said though the backdrop I've been speaking to friends over the last couple days I have one friend I spoke with um last night who was saying that uh you know a good friend messaged him saying I'm going in we're going to do some operations to try to free some of the hostages held in one of the kutes messaged him the next morning he was one of the first through the door to try to free these hostages and he was killed by a Hamas militant and sadly we're going to be hearing many many more stories of Brave Israeli soldiers trying to uh get these terrorists out of Israel trying to free innocent civilians who unfortunately are risking their lives to do it and um you know they're all heroes but some will have a less good fate than others uh sadly so it's a very very heartbreaking moment um and I do think that it's very important at this moment in time for the entire world to stand behind Israel I think that Hamas has shown uh the entire world who they really are I think what they're is what they're willing to do um and you know all of the uh strong security that Israel's put in place over the last years which in some instances was criticized I think is now being validated that um that there was a real threat that they were looking to deter so um short answer is my heart is broken uh praying for peace praying for strength praying for um praying for Israel to do what it needs to do to avoid being in this situation again which is either eliminating or severely degrading hamas's capabilities uh there there cannot be peace in Israel and in the Middle East while there is a terror group um that is being funded by Iran that is allowed to uh flourish and is allowed to plan operations that are going to aim to kill innocent civilians and so as somebody who was formerly in this position who uh was intimately involved with Israel with uh the strategies to to minimize uh attacks from Hamas and to try to uh turn the region around and I think we did do a very substantial job under President Trump the Middle East went from one of the most chaotic regions in the world you had uh Isis uh in 2016 Isis had to califate the size of Ohio they were beheading journalists they were um they were they were killing Christians um they controlled 8 million people they were planning attacks um uh all over the world from their their Cali F they were uh using the internet to radicalize people we had the San Bernardino shooting in America we had the Pulse Nightclub shooting uh in in in Orlando and there was real threat and then you had Iran which was given $150 billion in a Glide path to a nuclear weapon and they were using their new found riches to fund Hamas hasbalah the houthis uh different Rebels uh all over the the region that were looking to dest further Syria was in a civil war where 500,000 people were killed Yemen was destabilized syri Libya was destabilized and it was just a mess and all of America's allies had felt betrayed president Trump came into power we rebuilt the the trust and the relationships with all of our traditional allies and we were able to eliminate Isis the Cal territorial caliphate and then we were able to project strength in the region really go after Iran's uh wallet uh we were able to stop uh through through crushing sanctions a lot of their financial resources which they were using to fund all these Terror groups and so we left the Middle East uh with six piece deals and and a fairly uh peaceful world so seeing what's happening I think it was completely avoidable I think it's horrible to see that it's occurring uh and I pray that those in power will make the right decisions to uh to to to restore safety but also to potentially create uh a better Paradigm uh for peace in the future so I have a lot of questions to ask uh you about the journey towards this historic progress towards peace with the Abraham Accords but first on this situation to step back at some of the history uh is there things about the history of Hamas and Gaza that's important to understand what is happening now just your comments your thoughts your understanding of Hamas I I think you did an excellent job Lex of of really giving the summary just a couple things maybe I'll add to it is that Hamas was originally found did from the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt uh which is a group that's caused a lot of issues uh in the region um they've uh they've attacked Israel many times in the past there's a lot of discussion about how Israel uh is an occupying power well in Gaza in 2005 they withdrew from all the land and then they say Israel's an apartheid state well Israel then gave governance of the region to the Palestinians and then what's happened is is the Palestinian people's lives have now gone down not up since then uh I will say that under uh hamas's leadership uh in in Gaza the people who have suffered the most are the Palestinian people and I see I've I've watched cries uh throughout my time in government from people saying we want to see the Palestinian people live a better life I agree with those people I think that the Palestinian people in Gaza are essentially hostages in uh in Gaza you have basically 2. you know two million people that are being held hostage by 30,000 Hamas a terrorists and that's really the problem and I would just encourage people to uh to push their attention and energy in this moment and their anger towards Hamas those are the people who are killing innocent civilians who are uh murdering indiscriminately and those are the people who have held back the Palestinians from having a better life and just finally what I would say is you know what we saw with Hamas was that if you go back to 2007 they basically had just one plan that they did over and over and you know we were very careful to try to monitor very closely and stop the Iranian money and the resources from coming in and again we took a little bit of criticism from the International Community from keeping the Border tight but unfortunately every time you'd allow construction materials to go into Gaza they'd use them to build tunnels not homes you would have equipment that would come in to build pipes they turn it into bombs so um it was very very hard to figure out how do you get the resour resources into Gaza to help people live a better life while at the same time the leadership in Gaza was taking all those resources and turning it into military equipment to attack Israel what role does Iran play in this war in this connection to Hamas it can you speak to the connection between Hamas and Iran that's important to understand especially as this most recent attack unfolds sure so the correlation I mean there's reports that Iran is behind the attack Hamas has has thanked Iran for their support and um and it's been very well known that Iran supports the destruction of the state of Israel and I won't say Iran as a country I'll talk about Iran in the leadership there's actually a beautiful thing I saw on the internet where at one of the soccer games in Iran they were trying to you know rally support for the Hamas uh Terror attacks and a lot of people in the crowds were chanting you know Fu to the regime because I think the Iranian people the Persian people generally are peaceloving people who don't want to see this focus on destruction and Annihilation but uh you saw this in 2015 2016 when the Iranian government had resources the region was less safe and since you know now uh there's been more resources allowed to go to the Iranian regime uh by lack of enforcement of sanctions and as a result Iran is funding Hezbollah Hamas um they were funding the houthis now there's a little bit of a Daton between Saudi and Iran which has led to that going down which only further proves that Iran was behind the houthis which is what the Saudis had been saying for years and Iran was denying so there's a very strong um relationship between the two and we always knew that the way that Iran fights Wars or fights conflicts is never directly it's usually through its proxies and in this case Hamas has been a proxy for Iran who wanted to obviously see the destruction of Israel but also does not want to see the Israelis and the Saudis uh come together for a peace agreement so the name of this operation of the Hamas operation ation is alaa flood referring to the aloa mosque how much of this attack is about the alaa mosque in actuality I don't think any of it is but the aloa mosque is is something that uh all of the uh Shia jihadists have used for years in order to justify their actions that are aggressive towards Israel so uh this is something I'll maybe even take a step back and go through when I was working uh initially in my first year on the peace plan I was doing a lot of listening and quite frankly a lot of what people were saying to me didn't make sense and the reason why I was trying to figure out they were talking about uh sovereignty over ala mosque the Ala mosque is a mosque that's built in the holy of holies the Haram Al Sharif uh in Israel where the the Jewish betam mdash the Holy Temple was built in a very religious place about after the temple was destroyed um then there was a big mosque built there and it's one of the more uh holy places in Islam uh now so uh so the big uh thing everyone was saying is what do you do with this land where you have a mosque built over a very big Jewish site and I was hearing all of the experts and you know I always say experts with quotes because only in Washington can you work on something for a decade and continue to fail and then you basically leave and are considered an expert um but that's one of the problems with Washington which maybe we could talk about later but the notion here was I went and I said let me try to understand what the issue is with the Israeli Palestinian conflict with the people right I always felt the politicians were a little disconnected so I commissioned several focus groups one in in Aman one in Cairo One in Dubai and one in rala and I asked you know people U Muslims what is the is Arab what is the Israeli Palestinian conflict about and time and time again the most popular thing that they said was that Israel was not allowing access to the mosque for Muslims to pray and what was interesting was is that Israel's policy is to allow anyone who wants to come and pray peacefully at the SES to come and pray sometimes they have security issues when there's provocations um but by and large since 1967 when Israel um was able to take back Jerusalem in a defensive War just to be very clear they were attacked um in the South and they were attacked uh uh from from the East and they basically were able to beat back the jordanians and the Egyptians and and then reconquer uh the old city of Jerusalem and during that time immediately after uh Israel then passed the protection of holy places law which was they basically took resources they didn't have and they said we're going to uh restore the Christian sites the Muslim sites the the Jewish sites and they worked to allow everyone access to the mosque so today um any Muslim who wants to come can come and pray at the mosque the mosque is um Israel's acknowledge that King Abdullah uh the King of Jordan uh is uh is the custodian of of the mosque and as long as people want to come to the country and pray peacefully they're able to do that but if you look at a lot of the propaganda that's been used by ISIS or Iran to uh to recruit um uh terrorists or to justify their incursions they often say they're doing it in the name of liberating the aloa mosque but from an operational and pragmatic uh perspective today any Muslim who wants to go to the mosque you can book a flight to Israel now through Dubai because there's flights between Israel and Dubai and as long as your country has relations with Israel and they'll accept your passport in there you can come and pray and that's what Israel wants Israel wants Jerusalem to be a place where all religions can come and celebrate together but you have a lot of actors that look to find ways to use these religious tensions uh in order to se Division and justify violent Behavior I wonder how it's possible to lessen the effectiveness of that propaganda message that a lot of the war a lot of the attacks about access to the alaka mosque is there something you can speak to why that message hasn't disseminated across the the Arab world so Israel is good at a lot of things they're not very good traditionally with public relations um you know after the Abraham Accords you know we made the first Abraham Accords deal in August 2020 and then we made uh five other deals we first did uh United AB Emirates then we did a deal with Bahrain then we did a deal with uh Kosovo then we did a deal with um with Sudan then we did a deal with Morocco um and then we got the GCC deal done as well the deal the the tension between Qatar Saudi UAE Egypt and Bahrain and that was allowing us to create a pathway to then pursue the Israeli Saudi normalization so we had so much momentum then that the goal was just keep getting more countries to normalize relations with Israel uh once you create the connection between people and create the ability for people to do business together the ability for flights to fly between then you would just start naturally having people coming and everyone has a smartphone today so they can then post and combat the uh the misinformation that's been out there but this misinformation is not something that's new you know one of the characters who played a very big role in in spreading the anti-Semitism and the violence and uh in Israel in the 1920s was a guy named Haj Amin Al husseini who was a known as the grand Muti of Jerusalem he was uh very close with Hitler and melini and he was working with them to try to get some claims to the Middle East once the Jewish people were annihilated and what he did for a very long time was he did the same shtick only it was before you had smartphones and YouTube where he would say the mosque is under intact these imperialist zionists are coming in to try to destroy the mosque and he would use that to raise money from Indonesia from Pakistan from all over the world and then use that that threat to justify recruiting you know groups of young vulnerable Muslim men and then you know getting them in the name of of religious rights to go and kill people which is not which really is more of a perversion of the religion than I think the true essence of what Islam is I think Islam at its core is a peaceful religion and I think that's where a lot of the great leaders in Islam want to take it but the people who use Islam or the the mosque or as a justification for violence uh those are people who I think are are really um they are disrespecting the the Islam religion as you said you helped make major strides towards peace in the Middle East with the Abraham Accords can you describe what it took to accomplish this and maybe this will help us understand what broke down and led to the tragedy this week yeah so you know I always believed in foreign policy I I learned very quickly that the difference between a political deal and a business deal is that in a business deal you have a problem set you come to a conclusion and then if you buy or sell something you either have you know more cash or you have uh a company so more to do less to do political problem set is very different where you know the conclusion of a problem set is essentially the beginning of a new paradigm so when I would think about how do you how do you move pieces around the board you couldn't say let me just solve the problem you have to think about what happens the day after the signing and how do you create a paradigm that has positivity to it so uh the biggest piece of what president Trump did during his uh four years in office was uh he really strengthened the relationship with Israel number one and he did things like uh recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of of Israel he moved the embassy to Jerusalem he recognized the Goan Heights he got out of the Iran deal um we did an economic conference in Bahrain where we brought Israelis uh to meet with you know Saudi and Emira and Qatari businessmen and everyone came together and and each one of these instances were Unthinkable previously and everyone said that if you did it the world was going to end and every time president Trump did one the next morning the sun rose the next evening the sun set and things moved on and so by doing that what president Trump did was he he slaughtered a lot of the Sacred cows of these these false barriers that people had erected and showed people that the vast majority of the people in the Middle East whether they're Jewish Muslim Christian whatever religion they are they just want to live better lives and so what we basically did was create a paradigm where the voices for peace the voices for together now finally had a forum in where they were able to do it and we did that in the backdrop the way we're able to be successful was we severely limited the resources of Iran and they were focused more internally and they couldn't cause the trouble that they were causing everywhere else since we've left obviously the Dynamics have changed but um the the way you get to peace is obviously number one through strength and number two by finding a way for people to be better off tomorrow than they are today and what I found was that most of the voices looking for violence or trouble were people who were just focused on what happened two years ago 20 years ago 70 years ago a thousand years ago people who are trying to solve those problems in that context uh often we're we're looking more to use those past grievances as a justification for their power and for the bad behavior that they were looking to perpetuate so managing as we have talked about extensively managing the power dynamics of the region and providing a plan this is something you did with the economic plan titled peace to Prosperity a vision to improve the lives of the Palestinian and Israeli people can you first of all describe what's in the plan sure so this was something I took on uh I was working on the political framework between the Israelis and the Palestinians and trying to understand what were the issues and the issues were were not very many it basically was you had a land dispute yes you had to figure out where do you put borders ultimately uh you had a security uh Paradigm which I was much more favorable to Israel's perspective on uh and obviously the events of the past 48 Hours have fully Justified that um that that that bias um and then uh in addition to that you had to deal with the religious sites but I felt operationally that wasn't actually as complicated as people made it because you wanted to just leave it open for everybody then I went through and I I felt that the Palestinian leadership was fairly disincentivized to make a deal because there was just this Paradigm where for they had been millions of dollars coming in from the International Community and I think that they feared that if they made a deal they would lose their relevancy internationally and the money would stop flowing into the country so what I tried to do is to say you know my my Approach when I would get into a hard problem say how do I understand all the different Escape patches how do I try to eliminate them and then build a golden bridge that becomes really the the only but also the most desirable pathway for the uh decision makers to walk through and it wasn't always hard and sometimes have to go and you know hold their hand or you try to pick them up and walk them across but but but a lot of these leaders are very reluctant to change um and the Dynamics of the Palestinians also were such that uh I think they were fairly stuck where they were so we developed a business plan for uh Gaza the West Bank uh we threw in some some uh improvements for Jordan and Egypt as well I was based it off of the vision 2030 uh that they did in Saudi Arabia which I thought was a Visionary document I went back through this process and I studied uh basically every um economic project in the post World War II period so we looked at what they did in South Korea why it was successful with some strong industrial planning we looked at Japan we looked at Singapore we looked at Poland why it was successful we spent a lot of time on the Ukraine uh plan for the country and why it wasn't successful and that was mostly because of governance and Corruption which actually resembles a lot of what's gone wrong uh with the Palestinians where there's no property rights there's no rule of law and what we did is we built a plan to show you know it's it's not that that hard right in the sense that between the West Bank and Gaza you had 5 million people and um and we put together a plan I think it was about $27 billion uh we got together a conference I had the head of AT&T we had Steve schwarzman from Blackstone came which was very gracious of them with had all the leading Arabic businessmen the leading Builders leading developers and the general consensus of that um of that of that uh of that conference was that this is very doable you know we think that for Gau in particular cost maybe maybe 7 to to8 billion doar to rebuild the entire Place uh we felt we could reduce the poverty rate in half we can create over a million jobs there um the only thing that people said was holding it back wasn't Israel what was holding it back was governance and people wouldn't have confidence investing there with uh with the rule that uh that Hamas was was perpetuating so I encourage people actually to look at the plan it was very thoughtful it was 181 Pages we went project by project uh each project is costed out uh it's a real plan that could be implemented but you need the right governance and all of the different Arabic countries were willing to fund it the International Community is willing to fund it because they've just been throwing so much money at the Palestinians for years that's never been outcomes based or conditions based it's just been you know entitlement money and unfortunately it hasn't really achieved any outcomes that have been successful so it's a great business plan it just shows too rebuilding Gaza you know could be easy but like I said you know the problem that's held Palestinian people back and that's made their lives terrible uh in Gaza has not been Israel it's really been hamas's leadership or lack of leadership and their desire to focus on trying to kill Israelis and start war with Israel Over improving the lives of the Palestinian people in the current approach of Hamas the more violence they perpetrate the more they can hold on to power versus improving the lives of people so they as you said maybe can comment on they do not propose an economics plan I mean Hamas has been running it now for 16 years um and they don't have a lot to show for it and you know our posture with them was basically a very simple deal you know if you think about what's the end state in Gaza um it's actually not that complicated it's you know there's no territorial disputes right the border is the Border there's no religious issues uh there as well you know you're not dealing with Jerusalem uh you're basically just dealing with the fact that um you know Israel wants to make sure that there's no threat from Gaza so it's a demilitarization or some kind of security guarantee um from a credible Source where Israel doesn't feel like Gaza can be used to Stage attacks into Israel or to uh fire Rockets into Israel and by the way these are things I was saying you know three four years ago uh that that was the objective and that was really the fear now that's been proven you know unfortunately the fear has has manifested um and in exchange you can rebuild the place and you can give the people a much better life but Hamas has not shown a desire for that or a capability for that and I don't think there's enough trust to allow them to do that which is why you know under the Karm circumstances if you do want to have peace there Hamas has to be either eliminated or severely degraded uh in terms of their milit military capabilities I would love to ask you about leadership especially in the on the side of the United States what is um the current Administration the Biden Administration done different than the Trump Administration as you understand uh that may have contributed to the events we saw this week so all I can talk about are are where we left them right we left them a place where they had tremendous momentum in the Middle East uh I met with them during the transition and said you know look you know we even got the um the Qatar Saudi conflict done which was a big no peace between Israel and Saudi would have been possible without that so we even got that done uh in in our lame duck period and um and they came in and they said look we want to focus on the three C's which is coid climate change and China and I said that's that's great but you know the Middle East we have an amazing place right now at stable there's momentum uh Iran is is basically broke uh we put such crippling sanctions on Iran that they went from about I think it was 2.6 million barrels a day of oil they were selling uh to um to about 100,000 under Trump so their their foreign Cur foreign currency reserves were basically depleted and they were broke uh same with the Palestinians we stopped funding to uh to to to the to to unra the UN agency which is totally corrupt it's it's you know we've put $1 billion in there over time I did a poll um in the Middle East in uh Gaza to say okay we've invested $1 billion do here as a country are we popular right uh the US had a 7% approval rating us Aid had a 70% approval rating but it just felt like a waste of our taxpayer dollars and again we wanted to make it conditions based the Biden Administration came in uh number one uh they they they they started insulting uh you know Saudi and Russia oil prices went up at the same time what they did was they stopped domestic production of oil uh they made it they disincentivized a lot of oil and Shale uh uh production uh with regulations they they stopped pipelines oil prices went up um they stopped enforcing the sanctions against Iran probably to get the oil prices lower to make up for what they were doing they ran to Iran to try to make a deal uh they started funding the Palestinians again right away and I even said you know if you're going to fund them if that's your policy I I respect that again elections have consequences and uh you can take a different policy but what I would recommend is get some conditions make them do some reforms make them uh give property rights to people make them you know do real economic Investments for people but they just went right away so they were funding the Palestinians not enforcing the sanctions uh and then overall just projecting a lot of weakness uh in the region so uh one of the the most um embarrassing examples is what happened in the United Arab Emirates again an amazing probably one of America's best allies over the last you know 20 30 years uh they fought with us in in Afghanistan they were the first Muslim country to stand up and do that after 911 because they didn't want it to be a war of the West against uh against uh the Muslim uh Muslim religion so they joined the fight because they saw it as a fight between right and wrong uh they have rocket shot into their country uh from from from uh from uh from from the houthis and they basically don't get a call from the US for 17 days they need their equipment that they buy from the US which creates job in the US they need it restocked we don't call so they've severely degraded the trust that we had to rebuild with our allies I think they've been working now to get it back they after two years started working with with Saudi and Israel uh which I think was good you know I think that they realized after uh stint that maybe the the process that President Trump had created in the region was the right policy and keep in mind you know president Trump's policy was uh that I was working on was very strongly criticized uh during the first three years before we're able to achieve the results because it was departure from the failed policies of the past and so first there was Return To those policies appease Iran um let's criticize Saudi Arabia then they started embracing and working on the Israel Saudi deal which I was was was really exciting I think we're all very excited about it um but they did it in public and I think that that also was something and I didn't have access to their intelligence so assumed that by doing it so publicly they thought that they'd either had to deal with Iran because they were letting them get all this Revenue where Iran wouldn't be a problem but one of the reasons with the Abraham Accords we kept it so quiet during the whole time was because we always felt like the troublemakers in the region particularly Iran who we thought would would be disadvantaged by having uh UAE Saudi Israel altogether Israel's uh nuclear power you have you know other strong economies it Iran seeks instability they seek looking to create uh division in the region and if you can create that economic sphere where you have security from hia to Muscat from Israel to Oman all the way through with Saudi Jordan UAE Qatar um Egypt that's an incredibly powerful block if you can make it secure and then get economic integration that really could be a Middle East that thrives so Iran obviously wanted nothing to do with that and that's why they've been working to disrupt so I think the Administration has they took an incredibly stable situation with momentum I think they underestimated um the uh the the way that Iran would approach the region to undermine I think they gave way too much rope to Iran and I think that they didn't seize when they had an opportunity of strength with the Palestinians to try to drive to a conclusion that I believe could have prevented uh us being where we are today not to mention that you know even just three weeks ago I mean it's a bad look that they uh they just you know basically gave $6 billion doar to Iran uh in exchange for hostages and then Iran's basically funding these Terror attacks are killing American citizens you have uh in Israel and um and it's just it's a heartbreaking situation again totally avoidable and one that I think has been uh very badly mismanaged to date if Trump was currently president you were still working with him on this part of the world what actions would you take what conversations would you have what ideas would you be working with in order to unite the the various allies that you mentioned in the Middle East over this tragedy and um not let it be a thing that divides the Middle East but uh make it a thing that catalyzes progress towards peace further progress towards Peace So I want to say one thing Lex I have a lot of friends who are fans of trump we not fans of trump but one thing I want to say with absolute certainty is that if president Trump Trump was in office this never would have happened and uh when President Trump was in office anyone who supports Israel uh or who wants to see you know Jewish people not be innocen slaughtered uh he would never have allowed that to happen it did not happen when he was in power and I hope people recognize that um as as something that's that's very very true um how I would play the ball where it lies right now keep in mind we we transferred the ball it was on the green now it's almost like it's gone back you know 15 yards and it's in a sand trap I think the way that I would play the ball right now is uh number one is you have to show strength I actually think uh President Biden's words were the right words I see that they're moving uh aircraft carriers to the region again the purpose of having a strong military uh I believe obviously you know if you get into a war you want to win the war but the purpose of a very strong military primarily is to avoid a war um I don't know what kind of credibility the Biden Administration has uh to show the strength but right now you have to um support Israel completely you have to really um let people in the region know that there'll be consequences if they uh if they if they try to escalate again we saw a little bit of Rocket Skirmish from Lebanon from Hezbollah um but again this is the type of thing that they have to know there'll be severe consequences if they make this a multi-party fight uh and I think sending a strong message to Iran I think that they have to see some consequences from this and know that they're not going to be allowed to have a free reign to cause instability and that you know Iran doesn't usually fight face to face they usually do it through proxies um but let's just all be honest about where this is coming from and let them know that there will be a consequence if they um if they instigate these actions and again at least with the Biden Administration they've had contact with Iran they've been talking with Iran uh but they've allowed Iran I mean again the number I saw last year I think under Trump the number was maybe like four or five billion dollars of oil revenue and in total I think last year it was something like $45 billion in Revenue this year I think it'll be even more that's a combination of them driving up oil prices but also allowing much more sales uh you would think that they would find a way to get them to behave and allow them to to have this happen or if that's not the case then be tough go back to being tough that's what you have to do building off of Abraham Accords as you mentioned uh Israel Saud normalization there's been a lot of promising progress towards this what does it take to uh not allow this tragedy uh damage the progress towards Israel solity normalization I think right now it's probably not the best to think about that I think that we want to think about that after whatever is going to happen is going to happen now I think right now the number one priority for Israel has to be to uh fully regain uh Security in the country and then number two is to figure out how you can like I said eliminate or degrade uh the Hamas capability or other Iranian threats to make sure that you have your security apparatus I think that the Israeli leadership right now should proceed uh with that and I don't think that they should be thinking about normalization with Saudi at this moment um my instinct and I've been watching this Israeli Saudi uh normalization play out obviously just speaking with people and seeing what I've been reading um and watching with great excitement I think it would be a game Cher for the region I think it's uh it's one of Iran's worst nightmares to have Israel and Saudi uh Interlink together I think it'd be great for the Saudi people from a security perspective what they're discussing with America would be uh very strong the ability to you know get uh different elements across would be incredible so what I would say with it is that the industrial logic um held yesterday and I think it will hold again tomorrow so um you know I always expect countries to act in their interests I think that uh the deal that's on the table right now between Saudi Israel and America is in saudi's interests it's in America's interests and it's in Israel's interest uh what's going to happen now though is uh the political Dynamics are going to shift and I think that you know as we've seen with political Dynamics they come and go I think um let's get through this moment um and then I hope at the right time that those talks will be able to resume and conclude in an appropriate way and you know it's funny Lex when I was working on the US Mexico uh agreement for the trade you know we would have every day there'd be a you know TW that would go out or there would be an issue I mean people forget how how intense it was between um America and Mexico and I would speak to my counterpart of Mexico after a rough day and you know we're working on something we're making progress it'd get blown up and I'd speak to them and say you know what look they're not moving America they're not move in Mexico let's just you know let's stop for today let's pick up tomorrow and let's find a new way to bring this forward so I would just encourage everyone working on that not to give up uh to keep working hard at it um and to find a way but like I said I would take a little bit of a pause for the for the time being let's let the current situation play out and then hopefully uh there'll be a way for it to move forward I just hope there's still people on the US side picking up the phone and calling uh UAE Saudi Arabia just as human beings as friends as allies and just keeping that channel communication going cuz I uh maybe you can correct me but I just feel like there's just simple human dynamics that play out here the divisions can form and just run away from you over simple misunderstandings over um just inability to see a tragedy uh from the same perspective because of conversations that could have happened but didn't happen I think there'll definitely be communication but you know words on phone calls is is only worth so much it's really you know trust between people and power and obviously when you're in a position of power you represent your country country and your country's interests but the ability to have trusting relationships where people feel like they're okay taking you know more risks to help each other uh that's actually what's most important so communication I hope for but uh you know deepening and trusting relationships uh that's what I believe makes progress and keeps people safe and we talk quite extensively about the value of trust and negotiation and just working with leaders which I think is a fascinating conversation and you've taught me a lot about that let me ask you about the end here what are the various trajectories this war can take in your view uh what are some of the end States as you've said which are desirable and are achievable I I mentioned this earlier but whenever I would get a problem set in government I'd always think through from a first principles perspective what's the logical outcome right and forget about all the reasons why it can't happen that's what everyone in governments always rush to talk about but I do think here number one Israel has to have a secure environment where they don't feel threatened from uh from from Gaza and number two is the people in Gaza need to have an environment where they feel uh like they can live a better life and have opportunities so that's the end State and so I think that the International Community should come together I do think that uh the people who are usually putting blame on Israel should now realize that maybe they've been a little bit of harsh here and that Hamas has been as big a threat if not an even bigger threat than Israel has been saying and I do think that if the International Community comes together and unites behind Israel and really forces Hamas and their Iranian backers to stop hostilities to stop saber rattling to stop um misrepresenting uh the history uh in order to justify their violent behavior and if they say instead we want to hold you accountable no more money and they all say that they're going to stand behind Israel's efforts to eliminate uh their National Security threats um and then we will all come together and only fund again into a framework that we believe can be a long-term solution where the Palestinian people really have a chance to live a better life that's really the best way to get there there's tons of complicated factors uh but that's the end state that the global Community should be looking to come together and it's very achievable it's very very achievable so there's uh as we stand here today there's a lot of different ways that this war can evolve if a ground Invasion happens uh by Israeli forces of Gaza and if the number is correct of 100,000 Israeli soldiers do you worry about various trajectories that can take uh of the consequences that might have of of an unprecedented ground troop attack yeah so I think as a leader you know you can't change yesterday but you have the ability to change tomorrow and that's a very important uh fundamental I mean that that's true for all of us not just leaders but you know we saw with uh with 911 how America was caught off guard uh by terrorist attack we acted um you know somewhat rationally somewhat emotionally uh which led to a 20-year war with trillions of dollars lost you know that I think almost a million lives lost not just American but all lives and it was a total tragedy what occurred um I think right now the Temptation is to to be strong I think that that's that's a necessity I do think eliminating risk is the right objective I think the goal should be to stay very clear about what the objective is but also um this attack was very well planned uh not to walk into another trap I think you have to be very smart very cautious I've been happy to see that uh what they've been doing uh in retaliation so far has been uh somewhat measured and they've taken their time to try to assess uh what's achievable again I don't have access to the intelligence and you know we're talking at a very early stage uh in this conflict so a lot could happen even by the time this is published but um but my My Hope Is that um they'll just stay very focused on what the objective is and try to make sure that they're acting appropriately in order to do that and I will say this too that this has been different than what I've seen in the past and that the uh the the attacks were so um heinous and so um so disgusting that I've seen the International Community rally around Israel more so than I ever have and I hope that Israel continues to keep the moral High ground and continue to communicate what they're fighting for why they're fighting um and I do hope that the international community supports the objective and they can work together to achieve it Benjamin and yahu BB somebody you've gotten to know well in negotiation in conversation uh he has made statements he has declared war he has uh spoken about this potentially being a long and difficult War uh what have you learned about the mind and Benjamin and yahu that might be important to understand here in this current War BB is definitely a historic figure you i' meet with a lot of different world leaders and some of them I would say they're they're very very special transformational figures and some I would say how the hell is this person running a country um and BB somebody who has has done a lot for the state of Israel he has a tremendous understanding of the security apparatus he has tremendous Global relations so for a crisis like this I think BB's the leader you want if you're Israel to be um to be in that seat I think he's um he's ambitious in what he's going to look to achieve um he understands his role in history as somebody who's helped strengthen Israel economically militarily and I don't think he wants to see his legacy be somebody who left Israel more vulnerable than it had to be so I think in that regard he'll be incredibly strong but I also think that he'll hopefully be calculating in the risk that he takes um and not um create more risk than than needed and that's easy to say you know the two of us sitting here having a conversation when you're sitting in that chair as a leader um in the fog of War it's a very very um it's a very hard decision to make uh he's been here before he um he he knows the weight of the situation I'm sure he knows the moment and I pray that uh that he'll do uh what's right here to bring the best outcome possible I wonder if you can comment on the uh internal political turmoil that BB has been operating in and how that relates to the uh the tragedy that we saw on the one hand the political turmoil is um it's a sign of a vibrant democracy I think it's been um actually nice to see how people have fought for their country and their beliefs in a democratic way you compare that to the Palestinians where there's no democracy there's no free speech there's no Free Press um you know you can't disagree with uh with the leadership um you know in Israel um if you want to you know be uh you know if you want to be homosexual you can have a uh you can have a go to a parade and live y
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