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Language: en
global conflict is on the rise because
people are losing their minds if you are
eating a daily Buffet of information
that's been highly processed by social
media and the News you are going to
break your own brain just like how
highly processed food destroys your body
a junk food diet of triggering slanted
information is going to destroy your
ability to think well you've got to
train yourself to avoid traps and see
through the BS to that end behavioral
economists Dan arieli and I dive into
how to think clearly even in dangerous
times so the breathing ground for Mis
misbeliefs is
stress and I don't mean the stress of
I'm so
busy the stress is like job I don't
understand the world why is the world
not better to me why why are things not
working my way why is my significant
others so unhappy with me my kids my
work why is health I mean across the
range um and now what happens in those
condition of stress people feel a need
for an
answer even even just cognitively you
know if we give people a a picture with
black white and gray dots what's called
White Noise right just dots and we say
do you see a
pattern the more stressed people are the
more they see a pattern when people go
parachuting the closer they are to
jumping the more they see patterns
interesting when there's violence in the
country the more people see so so we
need a we need a story we need to like
like the the stress of what is going on
here we want to resolve
it and we don't need just any story we
prefer a story with a villain because
it's not our fault it's somebody else's
fault and oddly we prefer a complex
story to a simple one now now that's
strange right because usually we think
people love simple stories why do people
want a complex on these people feel like
underdogs something is wrong with me
something is not okay so on feeling that
they're the only one who understand the
complex story gives them a feeling of
superiority so we have this stress and
then people want a story with a villain
and a complex story and thanks to the
internet for example they can find
examples of that so that's the starting
point need for a story and and they find
a story the next part is the cognitive
part and it has confirmation bias right
we look at the information that is going
to confirm our
hypothesis we have motivated reasoning
we needed we can bend the story to fit
what we believe even if that's not what
the story is saying we can just distort
the facts and and then we have
overconfidence in in what we believe
even when it's not justified I actually
like the term corrosive information when
people use the term misinformation
there's this feeling that oh we could
fix it here's misinformation here is the
truth will fix it when you think about
corrosive you say people are different
on the other side of this and and
there's really no no going back so so
maybe I'll say a little bit about my
history with with covid and and this the
origin of this book um so here I am
beginning days of covid and the world is
crazy and people from everywhere realize
that social science is important how do
we get people to wear masks and how do
we do distance education and how do we
reduc domestic violence I sit there with
my laptop and two phones just trying to
help and I feel at the top of my career
I am like being the most helpful person
I can imagine ever all of a sudden I get
an email that says D what happened to
you what's wrong with you how can you be
how did you become this person and I say
what do you mean and I get back a list
of links I'll just describe one of them
that link shows pictures of me in
Hospital very badly
burned uh and then it goes to say that
because of my injury I started hating
healthy people and that's why I joined
the cabal and Bill Gates and the
Illuminati to try and kill as many
healthy people as possible and that's
what the pandemic is is all about and I
I get this and and lots of other links
and I I look at all of them and very
hard to believe right it's a here's a
view of myself that doesn't coincide
with what I think of myself
myself and I I spent a month trying to
argue with these people trying to give
them my facts and my side of things and
so on and of course I failed and I only
got things worse by the way a few of my
friends experts told me don't do it and
I did it anyway and then I went on a
basically a two-year long um
adventure of visiting some of the
darkest cor corners of the internet
meeting with lots of people talking to
about 20 misbeliever in a very deep and
repeated way trying to understand the
mechanism I call it the funnel of
misbelief what takes people and and
change them in some fundamental way but
some
people trust themselves they see
something and they say it feels like the
truth it must be the truth and some
people question themselves so guess what
the people who trust themselves are more
likely to go the final of misbelief and
then there's a couple of other personal
traits interestingly people who are
complete the picture like something that
is really good for artist you see a few
things and you can draw connections and
you see things that were not there but
is as connected to the story all of
those things make it more likely that
people would go down the The Funnel of
misbelief and then the the final
component is the social
component what is the social component
so if we think about stress is the the
breeding ground and we think about
cognitive and personality is kind of
making it further the social is really
what SEALs the
deal so what what are the elements
within the social uh part and the first
one is ticism
and and you remember the story about
ticism the guy who kind of started the
the big research on on ticism
describes uh a day in the park he goes
with his dog to the park
um and he sees two people playing
frisbee they play Frisbee they play
Frisbee he walks by the Frisbee Falls
next to his feet picks it up throws it
to one of them and to his surprise they
throw it back to him and the three of
them for a few minutes play
Frisbee and then they stop throwing it
to him and he feels rejected what now he
didn't know them he didn't come to play
with them but he felt
rejected and it's a very interesting
feeling so he went to the lab and he
tried to recreate it how did he recreate
it he got two people to work for him and
one
participant and the participant came to
an experiment say look the experiment is
not ready please wait outside with these
other two people and these other two
people pick a ball and start throwing it
between the three of them they throw
throw throw the ball in one condition
they keep on playing for 10 minutes in
the other condition they play between
the three of them for five minutes and
then they stop and they just play
between the two of them taking the real
participant and getting him to be
ostracized and now the experiment starts
and now the question is how does that
person feel and that person feels more
lonely and less connected less
optimistic about the world with less
confidence they're less likely to help
they're more likely to cheat all kinds
of terrible things so so when we think
about the the social element ticism is
the first part and and I don't know
about you but when I realize that I also
realized that when some people are
starting to go down the final of
misbelief I sometimes not by not in
intentionally I ostracize them
interesting somebody is is coming up
with a with a strange belief and I try
to crush it no not crush it me but I How
Could You Poss you know something
something like that now for me it's a
little joke
for them it's probably a big offense so
so the social part start with ticism and
we've all done it and by the way with
coover we did it a lot um now when
people feel
ostracized what do they need supportive
community so where do they go mostly
somewhere online that gives them this
this
support now it gets worse why does it
get worse because people now part of a
group and they want to get to a good
position in that group how do they do it
by saying something
extreme this is where uh this term we
use is
shibolet and the the story in the Bible
they come from the Bible this word is
that there were two tribes that had a
very bloody war at the end of the tribe
each of them was in a different side of
the river but they didn't know if all
their people were on this side and none
of the others on that side and and these
two tribes differed in their
pronunciation of the word
shibolet one of them said shibolet and
one of them said
seet so imagine we walk around and I
show you the plant and I say how do you
pronounce this if you said it the way I
do
it everything is good and you get to
live if you say it the wrong way I maybe
chase you away or try to kill you and
and this term shibolet were using it for
things that are not about what the word
is but about showing identity so I ask
you what's the name of this plant I
don't care about the name of the plant I
care about your tribal
belonging so now we're in a group and
now we want to show our belonging and we
want to be extreme and maybe we say
things that are not true but show
identity because if you just say like
the run of the mil things everybody
agrees with you you're not showing
yourself you have to say something
outrageous
in order to show your true identity so
you know imagine that
you're um you know saying something
about being a vegan or whether you say
something about gun control or a gender
identity or whatever H people often say
things that they don't necessarily
believe but are signaling their identity
but then of course once they repeat them
they become accepted truth or new
standard and they start believing them
themselves
and then there's the last
component and the last component is
cognitive dissonance of course everybody
knows cognitive dissonance but just to
to to refresh let's think about
festinger's original
observation and his original observation
was about this woman who said that on a
particular date the Earth will be
destroyed and only she and her followers
will be saved because aliens would come
and take them
away and festinger wondered what would
happen the day after when the earth is
not destroyed and her followers realize
that nothing happened now if we think
about two types of followers we say
there's the extreme followers the die
hard ones the one that gave up all their
money and say goodbye to their family
and sold their homes and so on and was
just ready to to take off and this on
the fense followers the standard
prediction is that the Die Hard
followers will be the most disappointed
they would say she she lied to us and
they would just leave and uh so so
followers we said you know we never
really believed it she's a fine woman
let's
stay but festinger predicted the
opposite he said that the Die Hard
Believers could not say to themselves I
was wrong they did so
much that they would have to adjust
their beliefs and and cognitive
dissonance is about if we act in a
certain way our beliefs follow now
usually we think that our beliefs direct
dire actions I believe X therefore I
work in that direction but festing as
show it can also go in the other way
which is we act in a certain way then
then our beliefs follow and
that that's the last social component
which is basically saying that once
people have invested so much of their
time and social capital in a particular
misbelief you can't just say I'm closing
shop I'm coming I'm going back you
basically change so so in in in her
example with festinger the the Die Hard
believer the next day said she saved us
it was all thanks to her and now they
went to recruit more more people in the
same way that with
Co people have moved on to the next
thing oh you know it's not covid of
course the real thing was the World
Health Organization or the real he thing
is global warming or it's the
government's control with crypto or they
come up with with bigger and bigger
stories and moving in with it so so so
if we think about it there's this
Machinery that basically Taps all of
psychology like this book is not
everything but it's almost like an
introduction to psychology textbook
because every element of our psychology
is
attacked to get us down to this funnel
of misbelief and the amazing thing is
not the people who go down that the
amazing is kind of the people who don't
you know what what what is the strength
H that some people have to uh to stay
with our uh with our convictions yeah
that that's what I want to um cover
today so in the book you lay them out
super succinctly so you've got basically
the mind works in a certain way and this
is one of the things that's drawn me to
your work is I have an absolute
obsession with understanding how the
brain works so that I can Master my own
mind not be tricked by the cognitive
distortions my biases motivated
reasoning all that um and so
what I really want to get to today is
okay so we just walked through the
problem now I want to better understand
like what is it in the cognitive
architecture that leaves us this way um
why do we think so emotionally but why
does it feel like it's not emotional
what comes first the Intuition or the
rationalization then once we have that
mapped out then we can get into okay now
how do I avoid these traps so um I have
the Good Fortune of having read your
other books and uh arguably your most
famous book predictably irrational
basically lays out that we are wildly
emotional creatures we think we're using
rationality but in reality we're not the
rationality comes post Hawk that's right
walk us through that one how does how
does the sequencing work and then two if
you have any evolutionary insights as to
why that would have been advantageous I
think that'd be really helpful okay so
so let's talk outside of misbelief for a
second about about the the our nature of
making
decisions so emotions in general are
basically rules of thumb they're not
accurate they're not designed to be
accurate they're designed to dictate a
particular behavior that is almost
instinctual you're at the edge of the
Jungle you see a tiger you don't want to
take out an Excel spreadsheet and start
Computing anything you want a stimulus
response you see a tiger start running
running you can figure out later that
you're afraid like that we we don't even
want the fear to come first we want you
to just start running and that's true
for lots of things we have this very
quick intuitive
system that gets us to act because
that's what nature wants now if you ask
the evolutionary question why there's a
cost and benefit right so what's the
benefit of figuring out the absolute
correct
answer what's the what's the cost of
making a mistake and staying there for
too long and meeting the tiger right
there's there's some there's some very
very high symmetry in that by the way
that was the world a long time ago it's
not necessarily the current world right
in the current world we can make very
different mistakes right evolutionary
speaking if you think about nature
evolving our cost benefit trade-off it's
not the same it's not the same as now
and another example by the way with more
about Mis
belief is think about
Communication in nature communication
always has a true
signal what what do I mean by that the
the most famous example is the tail of
the peacock the peacock has this long
very dysfunctional tail in fact if you
take young peacocks and you Stitch long
long tails on them they get eaten faster
right because the tail is a
handicap now you say okay why why would
peacocks adopt a dysfunctional tail that
makes it difficult to to run and escape
and and so on because it's a true signal
so if you're a strong verile male you
can
carry a long tail and you will not be
eaten because you're strong if you're a
weak peacock and you try to carry a long
tail it would not work out so if you
think about the tail of the
peacock it's really Comm
communicates what kind of a male you are
and if you cheat you'll cheat for a
short time and then you'll be
eaten now now contrast that to
Facebook where you can say whatever you
want and there's not
necessarily real there's not a real
signal in it now we can do what's called
cheap talk hey I'm just saying like
imagine that we all went on Facebook and
we said how long is our taale whatever
the the modern analogy you could say oh
mine is 10 meters and here look at even
a picture that that that supports this
the communication in nature by the way
start not from the The Entity that
creates the signal but from the entity
that receives it the female in this case
uh the the communication starts with
what the female would believe it doesn't
start with what the male feel they're
going to talk about or to communicate it
starts with The Listener and then the
the transmitter of the signal have to
give a true a true signal now um we're
in a different world we still trust
signals you know I don't know about you
but my first instinct actually it's true
for everybody but you know how gullible
we are I'm very
gble but but even the people who are not
that
Gible our first instinct is to trust why
do we trust because we grew up in an
evolutionary
environment in which signals were true
signals maybe not 100% but but to a
large to a large degree so we evolved in
a certain environment we we evolved in a
certain environment with costs and
benefit we evolved in the environment in
which emotions were very helpful
decision making in which signals were
very true and now we created a very
different environment
and just as another example think about
the
cookie uh we created the
cookie an optimal combination of salt
sugar and fat so much that we want one
and after we eat one we want to keep on
eating the next
one we but it basically uh hijacks our
emotions right it hijacks our taste buts
it's not a cognitive process where a
cookie manufacturer is saying look at
the cost and benefit of eating a cookie
they are attacking our emotions our
emotion developed for this decision
making quick decision- making
process uh but now of course they're
being used by other entities and by
other entities you mean advertising
companies social media apps everything
everything right so um you know imagine
imagine you're a
supermarket and uh um you know I go to
the supermarket and I have have a plan
of what I want to to buy but the
supermarket also has a plan and the
Super Market plan is different than mine
what kind of tools could they use to
most likely get me to do what they want
and not what I want it's emotion right
it's not a somebody giving a lecture on
the benefits of fruits and vegetables
it's about sugar fat salt that's the
that's the mechanism so we created a a
society that is very much built on
Temptation and
emotions everywhere not just not just in
social media and not just notification
on the phone and it's everywhere it's
it's an easier trigger to press than to
go through the cognitive route yeah I
think that's one of the most important
things that I've taken away from the way
the human mind works is that I'm GNA
have the Intuition or the emotion first
and then I'm going to put some sort of
rationalization on top of it I know that
um people have sort of discredited the
the sort of tril layer brain but it
certainly is a useful framework to think
through that I have a a more primeval uh
lizard Reptilian Brain at the center
then I've got my mamillion brain which
is very much the lyic system its
emotions um which the interesting way to
think about emotions for me
is emotions are the way that the sub
conscious mind speaks to the conscious
mind so if the conscious mind is
processing data in a faster and vaster
way it's not going to be able to
communicate through language which is a
much smaller bandwidth pipe instead it's
just going to make you feel something so
you're at the edge of the Jungle boom
tiger you turn and run even before you
realize what's going on you just had
this insane impulse to do it and you
take off running and then like you said
you'll worry about the truth of this
situation later and once I understood
okay wait a second uh this is the
impulses that I feel is a product of
evolution because Nature has one aim
which is to make sure that I Stay Alive
long enough to have kids it have kids
and so if it had to do that when I was
an amib boid and then you know something
coming out of the primordial ooze of the
ocean it's like on and on and on and
that's going to be the thing that's that
is consistent and Carries across the
different species that we move through
to become a human it's like okay that's
that's uh preserved because it's so
effective whereas if I'm going to
rationalize it I'm not necessarily going
to act and you'll probably know these
studies better than I but very
interesting to me that if you damage the
emotional centers of the brain a person
will be normal in every way but they
can't make a decision do I want steak or
fish and they'll rattle off all the
advantages to steak and all the
advantages to fish but ultimately they
can't make a decision because they don't
have that internal impulse towards one
or the other that when they have they'll
then give you a rationalization for but
the reality is it's the emotion that
allows you to make a decision and you
layer that on at the end yeah so I'll
give you I'll give you two two other
kind of stories for your
Arenal one is the question of
fairness so um you know your parents
pour a little bit more orange juice for
your sister than to you and you feel
that there's something unfair or
somebody at work is getting paid
unfairly or get promoted and it really
and really hurt us and you say why what
is this where is this coming from and it
turns out that if we want to work
together we need to trust that fairness
is inside you right so imagine you and I
are going hunting together and then at
some point we have to do something
separately I want to trust that when the
time comes you will have an instinct
toward fairness that I don't need to
supervise you so on so now you you you
can see how human human for Humanity to
work in a group you really want
everybody to be concerned with fairness
because I want to work only with people
who are concerned with with fairness and
I'll give you another example and this
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there's this amazing research I still
can't believe it but I've seen it so
soorry um you get people to meet new
people they meet new people they shake
hands just imagine the Gathering and
what they see in the videos is that
almost everybody at some point raises
their hand and
smells their the other person what yes
now I I saw this and I said I've never
done that never I've done it as well no
yes these are lies yeah these are lies
go ahead what go ahead
and take the next social Gathering that
you're doing install cameras and observe
it now here is the thing
smell Taps the emotional Center
extremely quickly and
directly H we all know that smell
predicts romantic
love with smell we can also predict who
your friends are going to be like you
know we think we don't smell well we
actually smell very well but we just
need to be close like you know we're far
away from the ground we not like dogs
but we have a very good sense of smell
and smell is incredibly
important again think about romantic
love and you would say there's something
about smell that is incredibly important
can you articulate it not really but
there's something very Primal about
smell and smell communicates genetic fit
I mean it communicates all kinds of
things so anyway there's lots of ways in
which our mind works and we're unaware
of it and you know smell is just one of
them but it's kind of an amazing example
because you say I don't think I've ever
smelled anybody but you you you have
that's so interesting okay so so so
basically if if we say if if we go back
to the funnel of misbelief we're saying
there's this mechanism that starts with
stress and and everything we stress in a
brain that reasons emotionally exactly
and and not only that the brain cannot
discern the the origin of the stress
it's not as if you say oh I'm stressed
because of my kids let me just realize
that stress is coming from there no
stress is kind of a general activity
that we have we feel stress it doesn't
matter where it comes from it
accumulates across the domains of life
and we just feel we need a story and an
answer and a villain and so on and and
this idea about the brain being a
Storyteller after the fact is part of
this right because if we understood what
the origin of stress is maybe we
wouldn't have this need to tell it but
we have this stress we don't H
understand it and then we have a drive
to tell a story with the villain and the
story needs to be complex So when you
say that we don't understand so take Co
I knew where the stress was coming from
I just didn't know what to do about it
and one of the things I found
interesting in the book and tell me if
you think this feeds into it is that it
it really is about control finding
patterns as you were saying you're about
to do something super dangerous you're
more likely to find patterns patterns
give you a sense oh these dots connect
and therefore I can understand it and if
I can understand it I can do something
about it yeah so I mean look just
intuition which I know to distrust trust
me after reading your book um but my
intuition would be that it it is more
that I'm I am going to apply a story and
whether that story ends up being
accurate or not may be important but I
I'm gonna I'm not I don't feel like oh I
don't know where the stress is coming
from I will stamp it with it's
this so so I think you you know at some
level that it's
covid um but but you don't really where
know where it's coming from so so is
this the unpredictability that makes it
it's it's it's the fact that again we
said say we feel an
emotion but all emotions have similar
connections and we don't know exactly
where they where they come from so I
give I give this this story in the book
about one of
the early early research on
misattribution of
emotion and there were basically men who
uh crossed the bridge and it was a very
narrow shaking Bridge like a hanging
bridge and they met a researcher they
didn't know they were going to be in an
experiment they just thought they were
walking but they met this a researcher
and she met them in the middle of the
bridge in the place where it's the most
shaking and so on and she asked him some
boring questions about the you know the
like research let me guess she happens
to be attractive she happened to be
attractive mhm and and then she said H
by the way if you want to call me later
and find out the results of the
experiment here's my number okay now
nobody cares about the result of the
experiment um and they compare it to a
non- shaking Bridge what happened many
more men call her from the shaky Bridge
from the shaky Bridge they basically
have an experience of something is
shaking my my heart is pounding my my
hands are sweaty I don't know where this
is coming from right knowing where the
emotion is coming from is not easy it's
not easy so yes during Co you could say
it's covid but is it coming from work is
it coming from worrying about China is
it coming from worrying about the US
economy you know where exactly is it is
it coming
and I'll give you one other example
there's a beautiful study showing that
the number of conspiracy theories about
covid have a strong correlation to how
much violence there is in the
country why so the more violent your
country the more conspiracy theories
you're likely to believe in the average
person is likely to believe in that's
right why because violence creates
stress and it's not as if people can say
oh this stress belongs to violence no it
just accumulates throughout by the way
if you think why does that make you more
like because I really I really want to
understand what is my brain doing so one
um Plato's Cave uh simulation hypothesis
like do you to me the you are living in
a simulation not in that I actually
think the world is a simulation but your
brain is creating a simulation you only
see
0.35% of the visible electromagnetic
spectrum or the available
electromagnetic spectrum you see such a
tiny fraction your brain is
oversimplifying the world in a massive
way emotions feel to me like no I can't
tell you I'm not going to react to the
quote unquote reality I'm not going to
try to explain it potential danger
potential mate whatever whatever um and
so the emotions are parsing these
incredibly complex things down into
something that I can feel and I can
react on immediately and if that's true
and I really am then in effect living in
the simulation of the reduced might be
the easiest way to explain it it's
simplified I'm just simp my bra isfy the
and say to this so not having to count
phons thatle off Surface in a wave
length it's blue or it's black or it's
red you just see the colors yeah that's
a gross simplification of what's really
beautiful mechanis beautiful metaphor
yes okay so if we're trapped in that
bubble how do we begin to parse out what
we can listen to what we can trust
because the one thing in the thesis of
book that we may disagree on is I think
everybody is prone to this I don't think
anybody escapes it I think everybody is
down some portion of the misbelieving
shoot you talk about humility in the
book which I think is
ultimately probably the only path out of
all this um which we will definitely
talk about because in the book you don't
give people the path out yes which which
is very horrible I am sorry about that
uh but we will we will for sure uh talk
about so you said so many things let's
let's H let's kind of let me go back to
them so the first thing you ask is why
why do I say that the Mind cannot
separate different sources of stress why
why would it be efficient in a world in
which the brain start tries to simplify
things and here is what I think is
happening and you know it's hard to
reason about evolutionary but here is
what I think is
happening imagine that you your brain
wants to separate whether you're in a
good place or or a bad place stay or go
eventually is the
decision if it's about this is a bad
place I don't care so much why it could
be stress because of kids or significant
other or work and so on there's a
there's a signal of Badness that is
incredibly important and the specifics
are less important now in the modern
world where we have lots of control and
so on it's more important but if you
think in an ancient world
the big the big decision you want to say
good or bad Stay Stay or Leave and the
and the reasons for that are less
important so that's why you say okay
there's some Badness here I don't care
so much where the Badness and and just
just go just go away um so so the the
the Mind basically gets signals of bad
things are happening and they accumulate
and you want them to accumulate because
if if let's say you have two things you
have family and work if one of them is
half bad and the other one is half bad
um is it really different than all of
them one of them being 100% bad no the
whatever is bad you you want to just
just change
it so we we just categorize the goodness
and Badness of things across domains by
the way the same thing is true for pain
if if you have a pain in your leg and in
your hands and you're not a doctor you
say leave that place and do something
else right so so the the Mind
accumulates across domains doesn't care
so much where it's coming from and codes
for the goodness of Badness of this of
this whole thing and now when something
is bad it says okay let's figure out
what's a coping mechanism and the coping
mechanism becomes this um in in the case
of misbelief it becomes like a bad
response and and and the metaphor to
think about
this is obsessive compulsive order so so
how does that work imagine that I feel
uncomfortable going I out in the world
with my Burns right I worry and this is
true I I worry about how people would
react to my hand how people shake it
every time somebody shakes my hand it
kind of brings back the the notion that
I it reminds me that I'm injured that
people think about it differently they
don't know what to do and so so imagine
I have this um this work how will people
react to me what will people say and and
so on um and I find a solution and my
solution is to wash my hands now it
doesn't solve the problem but it gives
me a sense of control and so on and and
then it reinforces every time before I
go home before I meet people I shake my
I I wash my hands I I feel a bit more in
control that's the obsessive
compulsive mechanism right there's an
activity that gives us a sense of
control that helps us with something
else
what happens in in misbelief I feel
stressed I don't know what to do um I go
online I watch a video of somebody being
the villain with a story and so on but
this is where the metaphor breaks down
because the next time I watch the video
I don't necessarily watch the same one
and maybe I watch it for longer because
that's the nature of videos maybe
there's one video leading to another
leading to another and next time I watch
another one and it expands my cognitive
framework of how I understand things so
it starts with a sort of healthy
response to a bad situation but then it
really goes
away okay so uh I'm going to give you
back very succinctly The Funnel of
misbelief let me know if I've missed
anything yeah so it starts with a person
is they're stressed they're getting
overwhelmed to use today's language um
in their overwhelm if you want to
supercharge this if that overwhelm is
being generated by
Oster so that they are now hyp sensitive
to being left out they want to seek the
comfort of the known they're looking for
that pattern that's going to let them
regain some kind of control that they
have a narrative that makes this all
make sense um they find people that
resonate with their take and so hey the
JFK assassination or Co just to keep it
to something really uh masks are
ineffective I knew it I I knew that they
were ineffective and now instead of
being rejected by my family who's like
don't talk like that in this house like
that's crazy talk I get accepted the
world's starting to make more sense and
that feeling of unease I'm now putting a
layer of narrative over the top of that
that says that unease was I understood
something other people did not
understand they were unable to face the
truth these people really get it and so
now I'm being soothed by being accepted
I'm being soothed by understanding what
the path forward is I feel better about
myself because I understand a complex
story that other people do not
understand and now I reinforce reinforce
reinforce my identity with this new
group and now you end up with people on
Parallel paths that's right or I think
you called them parallel universes or
different universes and and and you
basically said it but but there's the
the cognitive part right you choose
which information to pay to attention to
and not and there's the personality part
that some people are more susceptible to
this than than others but that's that's
exactly the that's exactly the funnel
and now you say when I think about these
people in our lives that have turned out
to to be so different it's not because
they're so different it's because there
was something in their experience that
got them to be stressed and looking for
an answer and they started going down a
path and it helps us understand better
what what happened to them hopefully it
will help us understand understand
better when somebody is the initial
stage and we just see the dangers and
maybe we can still help them there's one
other thing that is is worth while
mentioning is that um as a
society uh we have less and less
resilience economic Inequality For
example is a big contributor to reduce
resilience right if you think about
what's the chances that you would go to
one of your neighbors and ask for for an
egg uh as economic inequality increases
even at the level of neighborhood people
are less likely to to ask for help and I
think we're moving into that direction
in general and Co specifically we we we
lost a lot of resilience so you're
saying the usual inoculation we have
against stress is support from other
people we had less of it during covid
but we also have less of it in
general okay
so H do I think we have less of it I
think that we have a more deranged form
of it because now people are turning to
social media and when I was reading the
book I thought one of the things that
we're really up against is what I call
velocity of information because one of
the notes I took when I was reading the
book and you never go into this but it's
like I have a base assumption that
people really are being lied to so just
because you're paranoid doesn't mean
they're not after you right and so I
think that there's also mixing into all
of this all the things you said about
being ostracized it em stress
emotionally sets you up to be ready for
this to go into the arms of the people
that accept you and you've got the
algorithms which literally funnel you
down a shoot so fast into the arms of
people that view the world like you yeah
um that that becomes just a a a greased
shoot so you've got all this information
coming at you some people really are
lying some of this stuff really is being
weaponized against people and now you're
able
to barrage people enough with enough
misinformation disinformation confusion
whatever you want to call it um
corrosive information you're able to hit
them with enough of that that the
average person isn't able to look into
the different claims it's coming too
fast and furious y they have to use a
heuristic uh rule of thumb just a fancy
word and as they come up with that
heuristic it's largely going to be based
on social proof so all of my friends
have said yeah uh or the news station
that I listen to has said or my favorite
podcaster has said whatever their rule
of thumb is and then you will more
likely because of the cognitive bias
around um I've now got some of my
identity tied up in this I've had
arguments with my family so now I'm
really to your point about the aliens
are coming it's the people that were
most hardcore about it that are least
likely to change so now the more that I
invest in this the more like
reason in that way and so now I'm
cherry-picking the data I'm the that I
to see and so this is where we get into
uh simulation Theory where what I I I'm
really trying to get people to
understand one simple fact about the
brain and that is you view the world
through what I call frame of reference
you have a frame of reference and the
easiest way to explain that is you're
wearing a pair of glasses that have
wildly distorted lenses wildly and over
the of your life you and people around
you have shaped those lenses to distort
the world in a certain way and your
problem is you've confused that with
objective truth yeah and so we all view
the world in a distorted fashion and we
all mistake it for reality and to me the
the only path forward is to understand
that as a social species there are
there's an array of personality types
for a reason and just to like think in
political lines for a second so you've
got can I can I stop you you're saying
so many things I just want to to to to
stop and and and dissect each of those
so um so so so the first thing you said
and you said it in a much more extreme
way than I say in the book is that this
funnel of misbelief is really
weaponized and in the same way that the
cookie is designed you you saying
everything we have around us is tapping
the weakest part of of the human mind
the cognitive the emotional the social
proof the loneliness the social support
to get us to believe strange things
right it's
almost you're saying it's almost as if
the world has been designed more and
more to get people down the funnel of
misbelief we have all of these things
that are very potent mechanism to get us
to believe things that are good for
somebody else maybe but certainly not
good for us or good for some purposes
but not not for real long-term
well-being so that's one important thing
and you're absolutely right and I think
it's a that's one of the big lessons is
that this we have created this
Machinery that has very undesirable
consequences and uh you know if the most
of the book is pessimistic because it
describes that look the way you describe
it is is even more pessimistic than I am
you use the term weaponize but it's a
it's a very it's to realize how much of
our
uh psychology is being attacked just
tell you how comprehensive this
Machinery is and now you say okay we
have to wake up and do something about
it so that that I think is part part
number one and very important to realize
the second thing you said is about these
glasses that we wear and we have to and
we have to recognize them and for me I
use the term misbelief to describe two
things at the same time one is a belief
in something that is not right that the
experts don't think so the majority
majority of the people don't think so
but the second one is that we hold it as
a central truth and through it we view
the rest of the
world so we're in California let's say I
hold the belief that kale is not that
healthy not the big deal maybe most
people in California believe that kale
is great I don't or or um what's the
other one Brussels Pro okay even even
more okay but let's say I believe that
kale is not that not that good not a
central tendency I don't view life
through that and so on but but the the
misbeliefs we're talking about that are
dangerous is not just that there's a
piece of data about kale that I believe
or not is are things that we start
believing is a core of my personality I
am a flat earther right so and and it's
not just that okay oh you know maybe the
Earth is flat maybe it's it's round I
don't I don't care no no no it's a
central tendency now of my life and it's
not just about the Earth being flat it's
about
NASA lying to us and every pilot lying
to us and every government and you know
now and and I view the world through
that so now when something bad happens
it's I don't view it objectively I view
it through that through that lens so so
this this understanding and it's easiest
with sports right if you don't know are
you a fan of some sports team uh not
really but I Sports analogies all the
time so go for it you know so you have
Team a and Team B and you're a fan of
Team a and Team B is your rival and you
have a game and the referee is calling
against a call against your team you you
can't see it objectively you can't see
it in the same way that somebody El you
have to see the game is you know the
refere is evil vile blind uh somebody
paid all something something like that
um and it's true how we view our kids
and all kinds of things like
that and
um and you're absolutely right that
these these glasses that we have it's a
good metaphor and color everything color
everything and to the extent that we
adopt these negative glasses they have a
lot of Downstream
consequences so uh if we adopt the
glasses that um everybody out there is
with a good
intention everybody wants our benefit
everybody wants to make the world better
that's probably not correct but but
think about those glasses compar to a
glass that everybody is against me um
both are incorrect they probably some
people against you some people and so on
but the negative one can have much more
dire consequences for you and for
society right because now if you look at
everything through a negative lens there
there's lots of things that you would
not participate in you would not help we
we can't get collaborative action all
kinds of things all kinds of things
happen and and you mention this this
notion of intellectual humility and the
term I don't like so much but that's
what that's what say why don't you like
the term feels so politically correct to
me oh I'm
intellect I have I have intellectual
humility
um I I think it's really about the
ability to hold multiple hypothesis in
mind and not being convinced too quickly
and I also think it's about reducing the
gap between confidence and knowledge
because the moment you you hold multiple
things in mind you basically say I don't
I don't know no you're talking about the
Dunning Krueger effect specifically so
so there's another version of it that
one is is also a great one there's
another version of it called the
illusion of explanatory depth and it
it's similar but it's different and and
the way I demonstrated it uh it's been
demonstrated a lot but but my version
was with a flash
toilet I would go to people and say do
you understand on a scale from let's say
1 to 100 how well do you understand the
flash toilet people gave a number
usually a very high
number and then I would say great
luckily for you we have all the pieces
of a flash toilet why don't you assemble
it what do you think is the percentage
of people who manage to assemble it
effectively zero exactly zero including
a daughter of a plumber she
was um but but that's not the important
part the important part is you go back
to people and you say how well do you
understand flash toilet and people say
not so much and and that's really
interesting
because it's very easy to say okay we
can teach people something and they will
learn maybe but in the illusion of
explanatory depth we don't teach people
anything we just ask them to
explain and and what they show is that
when you ask people to explain something
in a bigger depth most people say oh
maybe I didn't understand that as much
as I thought I would by the way if you
want if you want party tricks not party
tricks but if you want a way to talk
with your relatives and friends over the
holidays who are
misbeliever if you try to attack them
you know it's not going to work right
you're just going to ostracize them it
will only make things worse but going at
them with the illusion of explanatory
depth is actually quite useful you say
that the Earth is flat help me
understand how it works and what about
the other planets are are they all are
they all flat and so what happens to fly
I mean just help me understand not not
you're wrong help me
understand and there's another nice
trick which is to say
uh what would convince you to change
your
mind right when you're not saying this
you're saying you tell tell me what
would what would convince you those two
things are good for the
cognitive uh for the cognitive component
of of that to kind of reduce people's
confidence because you're absolutely
right if people are if we think that
misbelief or whatever is is about
adopting something very deeply
inside with high certainty and using it
as a lens to view everything else that's
what you want to stop like if people say
you know covid I'm 90% sure that it's
this and 10% sure 10% that maybe it's
not I don't think I don't think anybody
would become that extreme I don't think
anybody would create death rates I don't
think anybody would ER start to CH to
change the World Health Organization I
don't think people would start
organization that will get people to
stop immunizations or stopping can I see
now people going against standard Health
Care practices in all kinds of illnesses
right people people are going and off
the edge with their the distrust of the
medical
establishment right the moment you hold
two hypothesis and you say I'm not so
sure that's incredibly healthy not easy
to get to especially under stress where
people want an
answer so here's how I have gotten to
that in my life let me know if there's a
better
way I need to know what I need to know
what's true I understand that truth is
fishlyn the world most of what we
recognizes truth is perception and
interpretation so I see what I expect to
see so I'm over here looking at
something you might be looking at the
same thing but we are almost certainly
seeing different things having different
experiences and then on top of that
we're interpreting it so I walk away
seeing something and believing one thing
you walk away seeing something and
believing something else in the book you
give a great example of uh sleep
paralysis or night terrors and now some
people interpret that as abduction by
aliens and then other people like if
that happened to me I'd be like the one
thing I can tell you it was not an alien
abduction that doesn't fit my worldview
right so I would not be able to
accommodate that no matter how real it
felt I would walk away being like well
it was crazy I can't believe how much it
felt like I was levitating and like
there were aliens around the bed or
whatever all the normal signs are but
because my interpretation of that event
has to filter through my entire world
view I'd walk away going wow that's a
crazy trick of the brain to feel like
that this sounds like night terar sleep
paralysis whatever and so I'd walk away
with that but you might have that same
experience or somebody else and be like
100% I was abducted by aliens there's
literally nothing you could tell me that
would make me believe other wise I was
there I experienced it it's real I can
pass lie detector test so on and so
forth okay so that's how we end up with
these just wildly Divergent senses of
truth it's not even necessarily because
let's take the hard example it's not
that anybody's lying i