Transcript
Kra4ZpBYy3Q • "How The US Destroyed Men's Futures." - DEI, Population Collapse, Gen Z Men | Richard Reeves
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Kind: captions Language: en if you want to put a human being in Hell Rob them of meaning and purpose and don't let them kill themselves the political class as a whole has fundamentally failed to recognize the real problems of poys and Men there's lots of discussion of AI girlfriends not much discussion of AI boyfriends which I think is pretty good evidence that there are differences between men and women the MTV show 16 and Pregnant had a huge impact on pregnancy rates much more than any any recognizable government policy I want to start with just a a simple question men are struggling right now what has the US done to set men up for failure right with the US is uh actually by paying not enough attention to what's happening to workingclass men especially in terms of their employment by neglecting ISS Rising issues of of men's health um basically turning a blind and eye to the way men have fallen behind in higher education so I guess what I would say is the way you frame the question is more like a sin of commission right is more a kind of deliberate thing and I think it's much more an accumulated set of sins of omission I think it's the neglect and the failure to address what were obvious and growing and real problems facing boys and men that has allowed them to deepen and fester in many cases now it's still a sin the sin of omission is is a sin as well as a sin of commission but it's important to the the way I think about this not to immediately start with a sort of finger pointing right or or or to assume that it was somehow kind of deliberate I think it was more you know so I think it's more an act of neglect than or of kind of malice if I can put it that way interesting so this is something that drives my team here at impact Theory crazy but I'm a big believer that you point fingers you need to point fingers not with malice but so that you can understand uh before we get to the the people what kind of sin this is I would love to get into the weeds of uh so you gave us some highle stuff of of the omissions but what are the problems help set the table for where men are today the boys and men have have to fallen way behind in education every stage from prek to postgrad you see big gender gaps and that in every single case is with boys and men behind so in the average school district in the US now the boys are almost a grade level behind in English and literacy uh if you take the top 10% of high school students measured by GPA twoth thirds of girls onethird of boys among the 10% of high school students who do the worst twoth thirds of boys a third of girls that plays out in College college campuses are 640 female male now uh and in fact there's a bigger gender gap on college campuses today than the was in the early '70s in 1972 when we passed Title 9 to help women into college since then the gaps closed and then reopened and so that the specific data point is that women are about 16 percentage points more likely now to get a college degree than men whereas in the 70s it was 133% per more likely that men would get a college degree than women so we've reversed the old gender gap and and then widened it and so what we see is a growing Gap in the share of men and women who have gone to college graduate so educationally we just see huge drop and and it's not just in relative terms since 2010 college enrollments dropped by about 1.2 million and that's for all kinds of reasons good and bad uh but of that drop a million is meant so of the 1.2 million drop million of its men whoa It's much wider HBCU so actually this is some work we haven't published yet but there are actually fewer black men going to HBCU colleges historically black colleges today than they were in 1976 whoa and there are there are as many non-black students going to historically black colleges non-black students than there are as many as there are black men uh and so when you to look at it by race it gets kind of worse and then just kind of briefly on a couple of other areas one is that employment we've just seen male wages stagnating in the middle of the distribution and at the bottom a little bit better in recent years actually we've seen some good wage growth at the bottom of the distribution just in the last few years but over the last few decades seriously stagnating wages for men and then in Family Life we've just seen an absolute transformation in family life I'm sure we'll get to this but for most um for most people who don't have a four-year college degree uh the norm is now for children to be born outside marriage Jesus so that's just and that's a transformation right so we only have to go back you know two or three decades um when that wasn't the case but it's now more usual for a kid to be born out outside marriage than inside marriage unless they have a mom with a four-year college degree now among those with four-year college degrees it's only 10% of kids born outside marriage but it's the majority of those outside much higher for black kids of course when you think about race and so across these different dimensions what you're seeing and we can get into some of the things that maybe lie Behind these These are the data points that I sometimes see as like the it's the it's the eruption of the volcano or it's the Tremor of the ground but there's something happening beneath that there are some tectonic plates shifting which I think are more cult and I'm pretty sure we're going to get into that but but the data points that kind of Pop to the surface of just cratering uh educational achievement certainly relative to women really really low wages I should have added declining employment as well so lower labor market participation men less likely to work than their fathers and then just this dramatic shift in family life which has left a lot of men uncertain about what their role is in the family in 20124 yeah that that I think is going to be a big part of this story um so when you think about the first Domino because I think you're right there's culture there's policy uh if I think from a policy perspective do you think that title 9 with obviously wonderful intentions was the lead Domino that began the rise of women and the unintended consequences became the downfall of men or is it something else so I think what Title 9 has done has mostly been good in terms of just trying to raise the educational aspirations expectations and opportunities for girls and women I think that's it's important to kind of recognize that that was that was part of the mission of the women's movement and the same the same with the rise of women's economic independence the way I think about this is that not enough attention was paid to a well what if the line keeps going what happens if the gender gap flips and will we update our view of the world quickly enough when that's when that happens and in education I think what's happened is that the view about about what gender equality looks like on college campuses now has not updated with the data now it's interesting that actually Title 9 itself doesn't specify women and so you're now seeing more and more sex discrimination claims under Title 9 being brought on behalf of men in college campuses and with some success so Title Nine is actually now becoming a bit of a double-edged sword if you're a women's rights campaigner and but I'd see the kind of deeper Point here is that there has been a failure to recognize that as we've seen kind of women rise in education and we've seen a massive decline in the share of male teachers and Men falling behind we need to change our approach we need to start worrying more about the men we need to start thinking about men as the ones who need more help and unfortunately for a generation who are kind of raised in the world where all the attention needed to go to women and girls it's incredibly hard to update your priors I think this is a big theme that might underpin a lot of what we're going to talk about Tom which is that just it's very hard to update your view of the world when the data changes especially if it changes quickly and I just think there's a lot of people who are who are stuck in their view about what gender equality looks like and they're stuck in the 80s or the 70s or 90s or whatever and they just haven't updated it for what the real world looks like in 2024 and that applies to title N9 yeah that's a a note I've taken here in Mark twice now is we're getting the data points but we're not we're either not responding or the narrative that we're talking about with the data points to your point isn't updating in a way that makes any sense um so getting to the underlying drivers my base assumptions are that when you try to top down manipulate a system through incentives you will get second and third order consequences that are very surprising and often horrific uh and we are now engaging in Social Engineering in the same way that we've engaged in financial engineering and I think I I can give you a very compelling argument on the financial side that we have a moral obligation not to manipulate the the currency and to at a minimum have a non-inflatable currency I think there's a a moral argument to be made there um what is your argument on cultural manipulation should we be trying to say hey we need more women in education in stem in firefighting in fighter jet Pilots we need more men in heel which you'll know the acronym better than I but education uh nursing things like that where traditionally you won't find men do we actually need to intervene or should we leave it alone well that's a great question that we could SP we could spend a lot of time on and and the way I think about this is Ideal World we shouldn't need to intervene we should be confident that the patterns that we see emerging are the result of people having pretty unconstrained choices and that they're revealing their preferences in a way that is consistent with their own ideals and their own values and their own skills so the question then so I think the the default should be non-intervention so I think we'll probably share that default the question then is okay where are there circumstances where you would want to intervene socially engineered to use that term and I think that that the bar for that should be when you've got pretty strong evidence that there are some artificial barriers here uh to people right so you would worry if you see for example only 5% of Engineers are women right you'd worry about that you might not necessarily conclude that's a problem but you might conclude it is a problem you might say it matters that engineering has more diversity or you might not or you might say well how on we suspect that we're leaving some Talent on the table here we ECT there are actually more women who' be good Engineers than is being represented by that 5% so let's go find out and I'm very struck by a couple of pieces of evidence here one is that in this is the so-called stem Paradox which uh you may have heard of David gir and others done this work where you actually find that in countries that have done the most in terms of gender equality the Scandinavian countries you start to see a slight decline in the share of women going into stem and it's a paradox because it say well hold on you'd expect actually that as you become more and more gender equal that the share of women going to stand would just increase but it looks like it just kind of levels off and even drops a bit and their interpretation of it is that that probably just means that you're now reflecting actual levels of Interest right you've reached a point where you can feel confident that actually if women in Sweden are choosing not to go into engineering it's not because they're being discriminated against or being discouraged from becoming Engineers it's because they don't want to be Engineers um and so that's a point at which you can kind of chill a little a little bit perhaps and not say everything has to be 50/50 and so I think it's partly an empirical question which is like you look at a pattern and you and you look at the evidence for it and you say a does that pattern look like it might just be emerging as a result of natural choices and B um do we care and the other piece of evidence is some work by some psychologist James rounds and the lead author is wrong Sue where they actually looked at personality differences between men and women and interests especially on the people versus things Dimension which people talk a lot about on average men are a bit more into things women are a bit more into people that's true but of course it's an average and the distributions overlap so they said look imagine a world where that was driving your choice to either be an engineer or a nurse what percentage of Engineers would be women and what percentage of nurses would be men and it was about 30% 25 25 to% to 30% so if you assume that that personality distribution is accurately capturing the preferences of men and women for people and things and that nursing and Engineering are accurate proxies for people and things then actually you should start to chill about 25% 30% men in nursing and 25% 30% women in engineering but you shouldn't chill at 5% and you shouldn't insist on 50% and of course that's a very nuanced position to take where most people would say it's either 50% or there's something wrong or yeah 5% is fine you know women's Brains don't work that way which is what I think the men's rights people make the mistake of of doing so on the one hand you get people who o overstate the role of biology and natural differences between men and women in explaining these differences and others who understate it so to Circle all the way back I actually think that the case for intervention has to meet a couple of criteria and this is helpful I'm thinking out loud here but is that one you should feel like there's something there that suggests there some artific artificiality something getting in the way of personal preferences right and then secondly it's an area that we care about so we might care about nursing we might care about engineering but we might not care about deep sea fishing right which is almost all men and we might decide as a society the fact that deep sea fishing like off Alaska these kind of long trips or my other favorite example is smoke jumping do you know what smoke jumpers are I do y they're people who there people who jump out of perfectly serviceable airplanes into a raging Inferno to give people an idea David gogin is a smoke jumper so that's the kind of oh yeah yeah yeah yeah you want to talk about somebody fin absolutely does not need to do that and yet does it it tells you a lot about the type of person that's drawn to that yeah and it just turn and it's basically almost all men uh there's a few women and it turns out that if you have an occupation that that asks you to you know jump out of an airplane into a Inferno you just select on certain characteristics which are almost entirely male now let's it's hard to get good numbers on it but let's say 2% of smoke jumpers of women right so you can be a smoke jumper if you're a woman there's nothing stopping you and you know they get encouraged if they do it but as a society how much do we care about the fact that most of our smoke jumpers are men I would suggest we don't care very much all we care about is that they go and put the fire out and God bless them and we should honor their courage um but I don't think that is a societally there isn't a social welfare issue at State there in gender balance but I think of things like politics in stem you know Tech interested in your views on Tech like I think it's it does matter to have some representation um for social reasons and so that's the second test like do we care yeah do we care so I will say that I think you put your finger on the right thing which is what we should care about is whether there are barriers to entry but I think and this is a problem I see in companies this is a problem I see in government you need to state in a very simple sentence this is the barrier to entry name it don't don't be vague don't say there are barriers to entry this is the barrier to entry it's Tech is an all boys club uh women are more drawn to people and not things cool list them out and then it becomes a question of okay well how do we remove those barrier entries so now if people want to go in they can what I have a problem with is I think that incentives come from the right place I'll just assume incentives come from the right place I won't even get into the nuttiness of people that are drawn to politics I will just assume that people have good intentions but the second and third order consequences of incentivizing something I think is where you get derangements uh I don't want to turn this into uh an episode about financial stuff but you need only look at the financial markets to understand how massively you can derange them by trying to meddle with them in the hopes of stopping there being a big crash and in the hopes of helping their only ever being soft Landings and avoiding bad things I get it but you completely the the system that we have financially is to steal from everyone to protect wealthy people from Ever experiencing a crash that's what's happened to the financial system and I'm speaking as one of the wealthy people and I'm just telling you it's a terrible system so now I think you will run into those same second and third order consequences but at a minimum you need to name the barrier not insist on outcomes which is how we're steering now and then read the data so if we see data points that say Hey this is working for women that's super helpful but oh by the way this is devastating to men it's like okay now we have to figure out what we're going to do in the face of that um what if you had to put name to it what are and I'll let you pick whatever you think is the most obvious the least controversial but what are the barriers to entry for women that we were trying to overcome and what policies actually overcame them yeah so in the case of of women uh the question is probably a little bit easier than it will be maybe if we turn to men um going the other way because for a long periods of human history of course women weren't allowed to do some of these jobs so the barrier to entry into certain professions was you weren't permitted to do so right and so women couldn't go to medical school for until the second half of the 20th century right so this is why the women's rights movement kind of makes sense as a phrase and the men's Rights Movement doesn't right because women did actually lack rights they couldn't you know get a credit card without their husband's permission until 1974 still B um and you see like and it's really interesting I talked to a friend recently and like her mom was the kind of first chemistry professor at at a kind of college right and she my friend is a dean of a school at a university and no one thinks twice about the fact that 50% of professors of women now increasing like getting towards 50% and presidents of colleges no one thinks anything of that but a generation ago it was hard for women and they actually faced Leal so in some case there were literally rules laws laws and or institutional laws preventing the second barrier was that because those professions yeah that's take any any you want but science Etc because they were so male and had been so male they had a male culture now what does that mean know very hard to measure but is some pretty clear evidence that until you get to about 30% representation and both ways by the way an occupation will tend to have a culture that is a bit more male and a bit more female in in communication style in the level of competitiveness Etc um and so like being the one woman in a engineering class of 100 that was hard right just as it's hard to be the one man in a education school now so I think there was second barrier was just that that there were these culture and there was some stigma and resistance um I actually think those have both been largely addressed so then the third question is are there barriers for women say in Tech or in some consulting or law Etc which I would say now they're less about them as women and more about the fact that women have very different patterns of caring and working especially in their 30s um and there I think it's less about fact they're women but they disproportionately affected as women because they still do most of the early years child care and so that is preventing a lot of women rising up career Ladders because those career ladders were designed for people who didn't have caring responsibilities and again that's no one's fault it's not some plot it's not a plot to exclude women at this point and it's not active discrimination right the evidence that women are discriminated against in any of those spaces is is now zero right so we're not talking about a discrimination problem anymore we're not talking about a rule problem now we're talk about either a cultural problem or the inadvertent consequence of career ladders that are just designed for people who who don't have kids basically um or who don't have to worry about their kids and so that's now the new Battleground I think but as I say I'm very struck by the fact that's true of Single Sex parents as well right so that's not about women anymore that's just about having caring responsibilities getting in the way of your career uplift and that's a diff that's a kind of different question so that would be my sort of three-fold attempt to to is this kind of History really of the barriers that kind of women have faced and a history of progress that we've made over the last 50 years extraordinary progress on getting women into those professions like half the doctors half the lawyers half the scientists are now women that's an incredible achievement in a very short short period of time okay so it's interesting a lot of this comes down to what are the goals you're trying to achieve when I hear you talk and as somebody who uh is married to a very successful female entrepreneur who does not have kids we certainly don't have a traditional family structure yet when I step back and I look at everything that's happening um at a societal level birth rates dropping which um not to over dramatize but literally the human civilization cannot move forward if we don't continue having kids and if you look back over different Empires that have crumbled it's almost always tied to a radical decrease in population either because of birth rate uh famine um pandemic whatever the case may be but when you have a precipitous drop in birth rate you are really in trouble uh and when I look at what's happening right now this is a tale of second and third order consequences so we give um rightly so we pursue women being able to control their own reproduction I love that the most is somebody who leveraged birth control very effectively to create the life that I want uh I'm not mad about it but at the same time um you now have this breakdown in what is the male role and I think that that's the thing that lurks behind the scenes in terms of what's going wrong for men you remove these barriers for Women Amazing they're able to control their reproduction amazing they go into the workforce to your point about getting um access to all that Talent not wanting to leave anything on the sidelines amazing um however it's broken the the way that the um the way that religion and the family transmitted a set of values that said this is everybody's role this is what you do and this is how you please God uh and I'm not religious but I see the value in the transmission of that Meme and so everybody understands what their role is there are some frustrations obviously um but as that narrative breaks down because when it to a woman it's like there's nothing you can do God has touched you with this blessing of being able to create a child to have children is to honor God and what what a magical role that you play man you are here to protect your family to provide for your family and that is how you honor God okay cool like everybody knows what they're supposed to do now all of a sudden you make progress and religion starts to diminish uh in certainly Western culture in terms of people following those precepts in order to live the good life so people are not as many people are living in accordance with the teachings of the religions you begin to have a breakdown of what is my role highquality protein is the most important part of any diet that's why you'll always find my freezer stocked with butcher box they deliver it right to my doorstep and the shipping is always free in my family it is critical that we know exactly what's in our food we trust butcher box because their cuts are mainly raised with no antibiotics or 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know how you frame this which is you you talked about the the rise of women in two important ways one in terms of control of fertility and the second in terms of kind of control of economic Destiny because of the rise of economic power for women and you said amazing amazing amazing and then you said however what does that mean about the change in roles what does it mean for the roles of men Etc and the amazing however move that you just made there is what's been lacking and that there's a real resistance to the idea that you can have changes in society that on net amazing but that still have second or third order consequences which can be challenging difficult and that it's it's the ultimate cultural naivity to think that massive social and economic changes don't come they you don't break some glass along the way right and you have to deal with the negative consequences of even overall positive social changes there's a kind of blindness to that which is a real problem and in this case I think I think you're right that what's happened is that the the sense of what the roles were that they that's just been absolutely transformed incredibly quickly The more I've thought about this the deeper I think this transformation really goes since the 60s and the 70s so since since the changes in in ability to control fertility you've mentioned and the economic rise of women so just to put a point like 40% of women today in the US earn more than the average man so that's not 50% it's not full equality but that compares to 133% of women in 1979 and so just since 1979 you know the the the chances of a woman being earning more than the average man has quadr almost quadrupled it's tripled right and it's gone from being quite unusual to being pretty normal and the result of that has been I think to just completely upend the traditional scripts the scripts that were provided sure by religion but I think more importantly in this case by kind of family role so my dad like he knew his role he was all kinds of things but he knew his basic core role was economic provider that was his core role and my mom knew her core role which was to raise the kids and be the main person on the domestic front she also worked they had an incredibly equal relationship but it was an equal relationship based on almost unquestioned roles right they as you said they knew their all I think what's happened is that we've expanded the script for women we've said let's ter this old script of wife and mother and replace it with a new script of you can be whatever you want to be right the sky the limit massive empowerment a hugely positive message of empowerment you go girl you know Etc and that has just I think been wonderful to watch and so what we've said to girls and women effectively is like you're not trapped by the old script that your mom's or Grandmom's had you can be anything we've replaced the old female script with a new script about empowerment and indep attendance we've replaced we've torn up the old male script protector provider bread winner and we've replaced it with absolutely nothing there is no new script there is no new role and and and and we've just I think we're in this really difficult transition phase now and what I would say is that there's a real difficult balance now because a lot of people are hearkening back to the era when we knew our role we knew our place when things were clearer you know when we had institutions telling us what to do and the hankering for that is real and in many cases Noble but it is ill I think it's ill- fated turning the clock back is not generally very successful so I think on the by contrast we should be going forward we need to keep going and we need to adjust our views about the role of men in accordance with the rise of women rather than thinking that for men to rise we need to kind of somehow turn back the clock on women that is in my view not effective but also immoral so we are where we are and right now we're in a really difficult moment right the average 27y old guy has much less of a clue about what he's supposed to be doing he has a pretty good clue about what he's not supposed to do interestingly now we have a long we do have a long list of don'ts for young men but he has a very little sense about what as a man he's supposed to do and that's created a huge vacuum in our culture and it's been filled in some unfortunate ways in many many quarters because there a M there's a massive cultural question hanging over the role of men which we're not responsibly answering okay so this idea moving forward I think is really important um I'd love to get clarity from you about what a positive vision of masculinity looks like um one thing at a high level I want to see and as an entrepreneur this is how I engage with this debate uh which I want to see men and women compete all out on a fair playing field and right now there's a sense of like men should not be pushing as hard don't follow those Natural Instincts for competition or for really responding to gamification uh which I think is a big part of why more men play video games man I just I hyper respond to gamification in a way that my wife just does not and I have a feeling that that is uh that will carry out across the broad population um one how do you feel about just like all right boys and girls go at it in a fair fight but go at it full bore every individual regardless of male or female you should be trying to win your ideal job um and if that isn't part of the path forward of defining um masculinity in a positive sense what is yeah so the way I think about it h is well there's so many things I could say here the first thing is to not end up sort of shrinking ourselves I think there been this dangerous Trend in some quarters to say that somehow for women to rise and to expand men need to fall or to contract that men need to become less in order for women to become more less you know sure of themselves less assertive less competitive um no less physical that whatever just to be just don't be less of you right I think that's one of the problems of some of the tropes we see around kind of toxic m masculinity and mansplaining and so on which is not to say there isn't some substance there but that the the message that too many kind of men are getting is could you just be less you could you be less male and instead I think what we need to be doing is kind of creating a situation where like we're in shared environments and if there is ways in which on average kind of men act in a particular way um as opposed to girls or women that's okay it's just as okay and one example from that you just alluded to is the men and boys are on average a bit more competitive right and they respond this is why the gamification thing is important they respond a little bit better to competition um and they're more seeking that kind of competition well and girls and women a little bit less so right the evidence that is really clear men are Al men and boys are also quite a bit more risk-taking on average than women and girls is one good or is one bad no is the answer but what we don't want is to lose some of that magic right some of that magical Difference by somehow saying there's something wrong with attribute a or b risk-taking or competition because it's associated with men what we need to do is to say those are not the only attributes that matter and those shouldn't run the whole economy so I'll give you two examples one one is uh from business which is uh we may have talked about this before but there's some evidence that companies that are run by women uh with CEO CEO and coo uh CFO uh female they're a little bit less profitable but they're also less likely to go under those that are run by men are on average a bit more profitable but they're also a bit more likely to go under so know there's a little bit riskier right now so you could conclude from that you could say oh we shouldn't have women in leadership because their companies are just boring right we don't get the kind same entrepreneurship we don't get the risk taking um you know sure it'll be fine but the profits will never be that great so you could say like you shouldn't have women in the boardroom but that reason or you could say look these guys are just recklessly acting out and doing Boyhood fantasies and they're crashing all our companies yes sure they're more profitable when they work but look the heck how many companies or or you could say maybe we need a bit of both maybe that's a reason why you need a mix in a boardroom right and here again I'm I need to say that the distributions overlap example I was in a school recently and this female cor Coral teacher said she needed the boys as a middle school she needed the boys to sing soprano and none of the boys wanted to do that they're very self-conscious they're going through puberty and they didn't want do that and didn't want and the girls were around as well and so anyway so she did two things she kicked the girls out and just said okay I'm just going to work with the boys and then what she said was we're going to have a competition to see who can sing the highest and I'm going to give a prize to the boy that can sing the highest immediately they're all doing it so I love that story because what's that saying if here's a teacher that's recognizing sometimes there's a space for single sex but also okay so boys are more competitive let's use that instinct for more competitive for a positive end rather than saying it's bad to be competitive let's say okay boys are more competitive how do we channel that to good social ends um and that was a long kind of slightly rambling answer but there's something there about just not apologizing for those differences and finding ways to channel that energy in those differences in ways that kind of benefit all of us rather than pathologizing either so a patriarchy might be a society where more typically feminine traits are seen as lesser than and matriarchy would be where it was the other way around and we don't want either of those things we we really don't want a patriarchy or a matriarchy we want a society that genuinely honors the differences and I talked about risk and courage you talk we talked about smoke jumpers awesome that that we have people that are willing to do that and the fact that they're almost all men amazing and we shouldn't have any apology about saying that yeah totally agree so when you were talking about the business corporations run by women are going to be less profitable but more stable and and the flip for ones run by men uh and then you said what we want is a little bit of both or maybe what we want I think is what you said we want a little bit of both how do we decide because as somebody who builds companies invests in companies um I would say I literally do not care if the person running the company is male or female I care very much about the metrics that we agreed that we are going to hit and who is more capable of hitting those metrics so um I I don't care if every single Fortune 500 company is run by a man I don't care if every Fortune 500 company is run by a woman what I care about is whether those people were allowed to compete in a relatively unbridled fashion I I'm not a no government guy uh so I do believe in in sensible regulation um so with within sensible regulation I would want them to really be able to go in and compete um would you be uncomfortable in a world where the men and women were allowed to compete sensibly with an even starting point of Education I'm talking when they're five years old uh but that all Fortune 500 companies in the end are run by men would that bother you it would bother me for the reasons that we talked about earlier which is let's assume that there's a certain set of attributes that make you more likely to be a good CEO of Fortune 500 company right and let's assume let's assume that the market is selecting reasonably rationally on that right and so that the people who are getting to be CEOs are being selected against a certain set of characteristics if if every single one of those CEOs is male then I think you'd have very good reason to worry that the the number of women who also have those characteristics is not being reflected in those numbers that something is happening to artificially hinder the progress of women up the corporate hierarchy such that we are missing some potential leadership Talent all right but if you looked at everything and you did not see any barriers to entry uh would it bother you um if you didn't see any barriers to entry well this is where I think things get a little bit difficult around representation I'm thinking about politics as well right maybe you could apply this to politics but I don't want to seem like I'm kind of moving away from the question um I'm just thinking of other areas where does representation matter in and of itself in certain roles because the absence of women in CEO positions whether we like it or not sends a cultural signal to other women and to girls that that's not a job for you but where do you think we should solve that problem so here would be my pitch uh that is that is true I think representation actually matters but I don't think it matters enough to engage in Social Engineering except at the family level at the family level I want to see parents tell their kids hey just because you don't see somebody that looks like you in this thing I assure you this is about can you get so good at something that people can't stop you from doing it and look at Mom and Dad like we do these things that are very unexpected and we did that because we got so good that people couldn't stop us from doing it now if that message were propagated with ferocity and then people were educated in a way that didn't make me want to headbutt uh the head of the educational system then I I would be here for it but the thing I worry about is people are so concerned about their being representation that they end up doing the social engineering that has all these crazy distorting KnockOn effects that end up ultimately being worse okay yeah I think that's right and I think that's why in the end um end up being against as a general proposition quoters whether they're kind of hard or soft quoters obviously that can work in different ways in say a business setting now of course in Europe and many countries there are you quotas soft or hard that are set and in some Scandinavian countries by law a certain percentage of the directors of publicly traded companies have to be women now um and so you do get these kind of that's a hard quer system but you also get soft coder systems where it's kind of implicit that you're trying to get to certain number so I that's not the solution because it doesn't actually address the problem IT addresses the symptoms of the problem artificially um by by actually it actually skips over the problem so rather than asking ourselves the question if we think that the representation of a certain group and it could be people of color it could be whatever uh in a certain if we think it's suspiciously low right it's low enough to make us think that doesn't look like it could have happened unless there going on here like if all of the members if all board members of Fortune 500 companies are white men I wish they were not that long ago that's reason to be suspicious about the fact that there are things getting in the way of uh black Hispanic women uh and men getting into those no could that be the education system all the way back maybe could it be what happens in the labor market maybe could it be middle management maybe could it be discrimination in hiring whether adverse maybe let's go find out and let's try and do everything we can to kind of remove those artificial barriers but you wouldn't solve that by saying okay we're just going to have x% of that group in there because actually in the end that doesn't solve what might be leading to that outcome and I think it's just so it's impr practical but in politics I feel different because in a representative democracy the people who are making the decisions about the laws under which we live I think there's a strong moral case that there should be decent levels of representation in a representative democracy and so there I think there's a case for some pretty strong social engineering in order to try and get to that and get to it quicker than might happen naturally but I don't think that that argument that I would make in politics and in representative democracies applies to say boardrooms or or other places where I think the argument would go the other way okay so how do you social engineer then when are you going to go to a district and say you guys have to elect a woman that's what the labor party did in the UK where I'm I'm from it's be very interesting to see what happens now this is actually this is a really good test case actually of the theory so let's put it on the table so when Margaret Thatcher became a uh prime minister only 5% of members of parliament were women so that tells you something about Margaret Thatcher no kidding uh at the time right I mean this is extraordinary for all kinds of reasons but just to come from like one in 20 of even MPS were women and she managed to become not only leader of the conservative party but prime minister for most of my childhood um now it's about a third of MPS are women and the majority of all the other parties except the conservatives uh are now women so actually this is above 50% women in in all the other parties but the labor party still has a policy of women only short lists and so in certain constituencies or districts to use the US language they actually they actually say that District can only have a woman and so it's exactly what you just said which is that like you have to so the primary in The District in the US would would could only be women and so it's very interesting now now that the labor party is actually slightly more female than mail what do they do about that policy and that's something that's being kind of discussed right now and I think you can let get rid of the policy my view is well mission accomplished right um but once the policy's in place it's really difficult to get rid of and so I would I was in favor of all women short lists at the time to just try and move the needle a bit on women's representation in Parliament but job done and pretty pretty quickly in terms of labor party so like great now we can get rid of them but they haven't gotten rid of them yet and so that's a good test of whether or not you were serious about this just as a means to an end rather than an end in itself wow uh I am I am shocked that you were for a where you are quite literally distorting the Democratic process now this may be your British upbringing uh but to an American ear that hits gnarly that people I already have a problem with the way that the two-party system works and the way that like we effectively just witnessed uh the Democratic party give no option like hey it's going to be kamla Harrison that's that I hope you enjoy um that's really bad if people are like you can vote for anyone as long as it's a woman it's like the um the Henry Ford quote you can have any color you want for your car as long as it's black it's like whoa that in politics man that's that's pretty crazy so make me a Believer how is it possibly a good idea to tell the voting public you guys are too stupid to elect the right person and so we're going to artificially narrow the choice to one gender yeah so of course what they could do is in in these seats where there was a woman only short list and so the labor candidate was going to be a woman in those constituencies so you could of course vote for the Conservative candidate or the Lial Democrat candidate who might be male but you're right that what's happening there is that the party is deciding that it cares sufficiently about representation that it's going to change its own internal processes it's going to socially engineer its candidate selection process to significantly increase the share of women because what they were finding is that that the constituency parties the districts who who made the decision so it's not like a primary system it was it was made by kind of a pretty small group of kind of local party members but they were kind of they weren't choosing that many women and so there was some top- down social engineering now of course that's been true in lots of countries actually why why is Mexico uh 50/50 female male in its Parliament now because of quotas and so it's something that's not very controversial in other countries the reason I was in favor of it was because yeah yeah wow okay um it's very common um and it's actually one of if you look at kind of if you look at the countries that are just like Rwanda Mexico um that have just made massive just like overnight almost changes in the share of women in politics they've almost always had some sort of quota system put in place um as an accelerant uh to get there and it clearly works as an accelerant now are there downsides we can obviously discuss that but the reason I was I was in favor of it until now now now I think the mission accomplished and so it can go now is because it just felt a bit stuck it felt like the political system was stuck and that the lack of representation of women in politics specifically just in politics in a representative democracy was a problem in and of itself it wasn't just a it wasn't just a symptom of a broader of another problem which is what we've been talking about up to the point it was a problem in itself but how do we have a representation problem when Margaret Thatcher was prime minister it it's the same way that it feels to me when we say that racism is as bad in America as it's ever been oh except for the fact that we just had a two-term black president it's like I cannot reconcile that those two things are true I can say hey it's still a problem and we need to keep going yeah word but I cannot say that it's just as bad as it's ever been so anybody African-American would look at that in America and be like oh my God this is amazing uh representation in the extreme anybody that's a woman in the UK looking at Margaret Thatcher being in office not briefly being in office for a long ass time at the like one of the most pivotal moments in the history of most people that are alive today right so obviously post World War II but this was not a flash in the pan this was not just sort of a forgotten time in history I mean the Faulkland War like this is this is somebody that was like in the thick of it so any young girl growing up is like I can be that obviously so why in a postm Margaret Thatcher world would we need quotas quotas to up that number yeah and to be clear again it's quotas at the party level it's because despite Margaret Thatcher and her rise the share of women in politics remained very low and was growing pretty slowly and so one party the labor party the most Progressive Party decided to take it upon itself to accelerate share of women into it through social engineering what do you think was the barrier to entry because to me it seems like the barrier is voters is there something that I'm missing was there a barrier in the party itself it yeah it seemed to be in the selection process so it seemed to be in kind of I'll try and use us language like in the in the district that was deciding who was going to be their labor candidate that there was a a distinct skew in favor of the male candidates H now maybe it's because the male candidates were better and they were making kind of good choices right that we can't get inside that kind of the black box of the decisions that were happening in every constituency across the country um and it it was felt and I agreed with it at the time that actually something we needed a shortterm accelerant to get the share of women in politics to a point where we could feel comfortable about the fact that politics felt like it was a place that women could go it also as a result of the share of women in politics did start to change the culture of British politics and it started to change you know the provision of things like child care in the House of Commons um the ability to kind of take time off I don't think that David Cameron would have taken paternity leave as prime minister in 2010 if the culture of British politics hadn't changed sufficiently maybe we can get back to whether the you think that was a good or a bad thing but let let me turn the tables a little bit if you felt confident that there were no legal barriers to or formal barriers to women entering politics in the in the US as now and every single member of the House of Representatives and every single Senator and every single cabinet minister was male if we had an all male Congress would that trouble you the first question I would ask is what is the outcome that I'm aiming at for me it's human flourishing next I would ask are we achieving human flourishing if yes I have no problem whatsoever literally none if no then I start asking okay something has to change what is going to be the thing that changes and on my list of very early questions to ask would be is this being a male dominated field creating a problem are we being blindsided to the way that women think and could that be just wildly advantageous to us moving towards human flourishing but that's the primary question that I'm asking is where am I trying to end up what reason do I have to believe that the following experiment would actually yield that outcome and then PS if we were to run this experiment and go yes we're going to try this and right now let's say we're at 12% women uh by the time we're 20% 25% I'm going to check in and be like Are We Now moving towards human flourishing because if we're not if moving that wild because that would be a true doubling if moving that wildly in that direction is not yielding an outcome I will just tell you right now from a a entrepreneur up against the market perspective you have not identified the real solution so at that point I would have said ah it has not led us to where we want to go what I fear we have is this is a luxury belief people are complaining about a luxury item we are in such an amazing time in human history that people can actually worry about the uh gender makeup of their government instead of fighting tooth and Claw just to exist which is that's the tale of human history so yeah I would be really thoughtful to map out here's where I want to go here is what I think is causing the problem again if there is a problem uh and then this is a hypothesis more women will help us and I'm going to when I bring women on this is a key that people always lose sight of I'm going to run this experiment and I expect this outcome so once I have doubled the number of women in Parliament I would expect to see this Improvement do I see that Improvement and if I don't you have not identified the right problem but people just get so myopically focused on the outcome they actually want is 50% representation or 70% representation or secretly it's being driven by people that want 100% representation and just like any man that says women in politics uh you know that's terrible and they can never be a good leader they are a there's nothing that I have seen at the population level that tells me that that would be true but it is equally true to say that men are all toxic and we have to get them out of politics both are stupid yeah so there's two there's two issues that stake here one is the uh just a kind of moral Claim about who should be making the laws that we all have to live under and should should that should it should we have a degree of representation about the people who making the laws and what and the second question is are we making better laws for human flourishing there a more of a kind of performance side of it too is is this institution performing well against this this outcome right which you've said is human flourishing and I guess you would feel the same about juwes right so if it was if all our juries were men if everybody's tried under a jury and there it's 12 good men right T SE old and we didn't have women on juries as we have to now I'm pretty sure we have to actually I'm saying this and someone needs to fact check this but like I don't know what the rules are but I don't think we can have all male juries or all female juries um and you can imagine some trials but that would really matter but you'd feel the same about that if if all the if all the members of juries in Trials were male if you felt confident that Justice was being done and that this justice system was working and that people being treated fairly men and women you know whatever were being treated equally fairly by these all male jewries then you wouldn't have a problem with it not in the slightest because before you get to that let me say why I don't think that I would have a beef why I would not have a beef with that it is an adversarial system that creates that pool of jurors so you have both sides saying I need this juror on and both sides saying I absolutely cannot have a given juror and so they're battling to make sure that they have a pool that they think is most likely to win for their side if they both agree this is all women this is all men this is all Asian people this is all black people whatever rad I don't care that that that is the nature of the adversarial system and that's what I'm talking about in politics that's what I'm talking about in business I want people to compete against the marketplace so we pick a metric for the nation whether it's um happiness r whether it's GDP whatever but we say here are the metrics that we think matter and here are the probably policies way before people here are the policies that are getting us there and here are the people that H happen to represent those policies that we believe in and by the way you the people via a representative democracy I'm here for that but that's how we're getting there so yes what whatever the constitution of humans whether it's race or gender that move us towards the metrics that we want human flourishing by my vote then that is what it is yeah so you're being you're being entirely and consistently instrumental about this and consequentialist about it and applying that to all these institutions whereas I'm I'm doing a carve out for representative democracy from that um and saying that I think it's a it's a different a different creature than some of these other institutions we we've talked about whereas I think you're applying the same you're applying the same moral logic to Politics As You Are to business as you I have a feeling you are as well I don't think you are uh and and let let me ask a clarifying question um do you want women in government for the sake of representing the people's wishes or do you want women in government simply because you believe that it is a moral good to have uh like literally pure representation so if the women that made it into Parliament voted exactly the same as their male counterparts brought exactly the same ideas as their male counterparts uh would you be perfectly fine with that or would you say okay this actually didn't do the thing I wanted which was to get a feminine perspective yeah that's a great clarifying question because I presume in my argument for greater gender representation some like politics that that is bringing different perspectives to the process of making laws I'm presuming that and that that is a good thing and the same in jurs and that that is a good thing because it has a good outcome or for some other reason because it's a good outcome yeah it has a good out you and I are saying the exact same thing so we we are both saying outc I have an outcome that I desire and I think by doing this thing we get that outcome the only difference is I'm saying uh I think social engineering is a bad way you're going to guess poorly you're going to think it's this but there are second and third or Consequences that probably don't lead you there and you're saying no no no there are things that we can know and getting both perspectives is inherently more likely to lead us to the desired outcome but we're both instrumental we are both driving towards an outcome yeah that's that's correct it's that I I guess I don't feel very confident that I could identify external metrics of performance against which we could kind of measure the success and so I'm kind of betting quite heavily on the fact that that there will be improved outcomes as a result of diversity um such that I would I would not be comfortable with an all male uh Congress um even if we could somehow invent some sort of external measure that said okay well that Congress is doing just as well as one with women in it because I don't know how we would ever know and so because I don't think we would ever know I think we have to ER on the side of in in representative democracy to be clear uh on the side of representation because then at least we can we can eliminate the risk that we're underperforming if we think that diversity is bringing more performance to it but I will say one more thing and this might Bridge us to some other issu so some other areas that I worry about which is it's back to year we had the conversation about kind of barriers to entry into a kind of particular profession and one of the ones I identified was if you don't see you know this is one of the feminist mantras is you can't be it if you can't see it I think there's some truth to that I think that one of the barriers that there might be to entering a certain kind of profession or a certain activity might be that you just don't see anybody like you doing it it's one of the reasons I worry for example about the kind of lack of male teachers because at a certain point if you ever never see men in classroom then you grow up thinking that's not something men do uh and I worry a lot about that I worry that it gets harder and harder to get people to go into those professions if they just don't see anyone like them so I do also worry about these Tipping Point effects and these can't be it if you can't see it effects and so if you have a profession that's all male or all female it just gets really hard to persuade people to go into that profession if it's going against that grain and in some professions I think that really matters so we talked a lot about politics where I think it matters but I think it matters in something like education or the Mental Health Professions which are increasingly becoming female does it matter if there aren't any male teachers like how would we feel about an all female teaching profession I wouldn't feel great about it and there's a number of reasons I wouldn't but one of the reasons that's relevant to this discussion that I wouldn't feel great about it is because it's going to get much harder to persuade a boy that he could become a teacher if that's really what his vocation could be and what his skill set would lead him to if he would be literally the only male teacher in the US right it's just going to get very very hard to persuade him so there is a bit of a v there is a bit of a vicious and and a virtual cycle here which again I don't think leads you to say you have to have quotas or you have to have 50% but I think it means you have to be attentive to areas where there is a very low representation of one gender and worry a lot that there's something going on there that is leading to such low representation and try to do everything you can to reduce those barriers so you shouldn't fetishize 50% and you shouldn't have quotas but you should worry if it's 3% if it's an area you care about so we've already talked about smoke jumpers don't care broadly speaking education politics science medicine and I do care if it's only 3% of one sex or the other and as I say that's partly because it then just becomes intergenerationally a vicious cycle it took ages for me to persuade one of my sons that men could be doctors because he'd only seen female doctors and then we saw a male doctor I can't remember how old he was but like seven or something and we went and on the way home he said dad that I didn't know men could be doctors wow could be Physicians my how things have changed I said what are you talking about because he'd only ever seen and so of course of course he drawn the rational conclusion if you only see people of one sex doing doing a thing you naturally assume that that's a thing that that sex does and if you're of the opposite sex you assume that's not for me and that's a problem in itself I think I don't know quite how to think about that in terms of the numbers or the shares um and as I say there is about there does seem to be some evidence for like a 30% Tipping Point but I worry about that just in terms of the messages we're sending to the next generation and that's a social Norm effect rather than a it's not a legal barrier or a or a formal barrier but it can be an informal barrier if you think you're going to be a freak by choosing to be the one female engineer or the one male primary school teacher yeah okay so uh I think that all of the problems of letting people sort themselves out into um what they want to do the the barriers for women they go away when you remove any and all laws that say that they can't be financially independent so we've already talked about that that's an absolute must glad it happened it has happened certainly here in the US uh and then the next one is now that women have control over their reproductive um timing you do those two things and now greedy capitalists are going to take over because if somebody comes into my company and they are smarter than the next person they are more capable than the next person and they happen to have a uterus I'm here for it like I don't care I just want the most intelligent driven uh like person that's a great teammate that elevates the other people here makes them play at a higher level like I just don't care so I feel like people want to do the social engineering rather than just letting the fact that we've solved that problem already run its course and the fact that we have in places quotas that we have scholarships incentives and things like that that are meant to act as accelerants and quite frankly they do but now you get this huge pendulum Swift swing that is inevitably going to go too far and then you start doing damage which is how we open this conversation men are struggling and I would say after researching you now multiple times uh that what I see is all the things that were meant to be accelerants for girls worked extraordinarily well but now the narrative that we told was that men were creating these barriers men are the problem and now men are withdrawing they are tapping out they are not engaging and so all that talent that we were worried about leaving on the sideline we've just changed it's now not the females that are being left on the sideline it's the men and the thing I would hope people take away from my worldview that they are welcome to reject but I would love them to understand it is just that when you Tinker with a system that is as complicated as what jobs are filled by what gender that oh dear lord there's no way you're going to avoid very problematic second and third order consequences now what's my solution my solution is this is to a hammer every problem is a nail I understand that but to me the solution is storytelling you need to tell stories of the little boy who never sees a female or never sees a male doctor and thinks that men can't be doctors and then oh my gosh you have story and that book makes its way into households or they read it online or they see the cartoon or whatever that kind of telling a new story so that people can see beyond the limitations that they see now I think that's incredibly potent and is probably one of the greatest services that art can perform for society yeah I I strongly agree with that and actually I've just been writing a little bit about um um Pamela Harris's pick for her VP her running Tim wal he's getting a lot of attention for having been a he's a former High School teacher uh and a high school uh football coach and my son is just starting his career as a public school teacher also social studies which is what um Tim Waltz go and he texted me to say Hey Dad I might end up being vice president um and it was just a kind of jokey text but it but it was very interesting to see like okay you can be a high school teacher you can be a public school teacher so the storytelling around to him I think is going to be quite important and quite interesting so here we agree is that actually the stories you tell about what kinds of people can be teachers nurses um Tech Etc I think is important but I guess a lot of this will come down to what we think what tinkering means right so one of the things I'm very interested in is the programs that are really encouraging young men to consider teaching as a career by having kind of Role Models go into schools and talk to them um I'm actually in favor of even some Financial incentives to get more men to go into teaching I that's where we'll disagree just as there are some Financial incentives to going to women into to stem so it's not a it's not a quota it's an incentive uh and it's deliberately trying to incentivize an underrepresented group in this case men in teaching to go into teaching when they wouldn't otherwise through a kind of financial incentive sounds like we might we might agree that it's not great if there aren't any men in teaching and it's down to 23% now was 33% when Tim Walls became a teacher in the in the Reagan Era and fall in I would be in favor of some tinkering to use your term if that means some Financial incentives some messaging some storytelling some soft power around trying to make teaching a more uh attractive profession to men also making lateral moves into teaching more attractive because a lot of men come in later from other professions and so you do that specifically try and get more men in what would be your reaction to that that's the kind of tinkering I'm in favor of to try and address that gender imbalance and it sounds like you'd probably be against and you just want to let the market keep doing its thing around teaching which would probably mean fewer and fewer men yeah uh so that would very much be my instinct is okay there's an outcome that I want because I share your desire for it not to be only women um so the question is how do I culturally incentivize people to recognize that it would be useful now I don't I don't trust myself enough in my ability to see what is true where I would want to Tinker so one base assumption you have to understand about me for anything that I say to make sense is that I think every human being needs to wildly distrust themselves and it is mostly not entirely but it's mostly in the aggregate that we find our way to something sensible so I would want the opportunity to write stories tell stories do podcasts all of that put ideas out into the system and say hey I really believe that we need more men as school teachers we really need more women as Pilots whatever I don't believe that one but if I did that I would put that idea out into the marketplace and I would very much be as passionate as I can tell that story as convincingly and compellingly and just data rich as I can get it in front of as many people as possible and then get them at a Grassroots level with their own children to go to the school and make demands I know your own story is that uh you ended up going to a school cuz the new Headmaster came around and said hey dear neighborhood I need you to send your kids to this aien school that I am going to turn around but I need you guys to send me your kids and that kind of Grassroots a parent making the decision about their own child that's what I'm talking about so let putting the idea into the world fighting for it as as just passionately and and convincingly as possible but then knowing I don't want people to just believe me I want people to push back and then I want old Ely people to make their own decisions in their own lives what do you make so I I I agree with all of that I think that a lot of what we are very often attempt to do through tinkering policy making incent changing incentives is actually much more effectively done at a kind of cultural level um and I'll I'll I'll give an example of that from a paper that Melissa Carney did she's a Maryland Economist who's actually you'd love her work I think her recent book is called two privilege and it's all about this issue of marriage and family and she's really taken on this kind of very difficult debate particularly on the left around two parents being better than one she does it brilliantly she did a study earlier where she showed that the MTV show 16 and Pregnant had a huge impact on teen pregnancy rates really much more than any any recognizable government policy and the reason that they were able to track that was because that show aired at different times in different states wow and so they had a wonderful natural experiment and so they could see that show a in you know Nevada at this point in time and then like in Illinois at this point in time and they saw the teen pregnancy rate drop and stay lower as a result of that MTV show so I think that's actually great data point for your position which is an MTV show can be much more powerful in shifting a narrative about the pros and cons of becoming pregnant as a teenager than any amount of government policy or government certainly government lecturing on it which tends to fall on kind of deaf ears and so I agree with that one of my questions for you is what do you think of the culture making institutions right now specifically around these kind of issues of of gender one of the criticisms that's made more from from the conservative side is that the commanding Heights of of the cultural economy already dominated by a very very Progressive World viiew um one that may not be kind of being updated and that's kind of making it harder to kind of get cut through with other cultural messages whether that's kind of pro marriage or Pro religion or I would say from my point of view like stories about men in teaching or or or whatever um so I just kind of be very interested given that you've made the case for culture and storytelling how would you rate the performance of our current cultural Industries against that metri um I don't have a problem with the culture engines per se what I have a problem with is um censorship so that you don't know are there cultural entities that would be putting great ideas into the system but that system is behind the scenes stopping them from finding Their audience that that would bother me a lot so I operate under the cultural belief that every period in time gets to create the world that they want and as I get older some of the changes that people want to make just seem absolutely absurd to me based on my metric of human flourishing I don't think the things are going that they're doing are going to lead to human flourishing uh case in point open borders case in point um uh the quotas in making sure that the only person you can vote for in a given district is female like that that that is crazy to me however I recognize I can't trust myself I don't want to be dictator like I want to be able to argue that idea and give you data and give you why I think that's absurd but then I want people to be able to make that decision and I just fully understand that when um when any generation has their moment of control they get to create the world that they want and so cool there it if you live long enough if you were that fortunate you will inevitably look back at the world and go you guys are making dumb decisions and that that is a question of frame of reference more than it is objective reality now that brings us to something that we just cannot move on unless we touch because you hit me so hard with something you said because I realized you have solved a problem for me of why uh so much the world seems like they have Roaches on their face to me uh which is we can't identify the right metrics and so this is me putting words to what you said so you're going to go by proxies instead so having 50% women in government is a proxy for human flourishing I think you'd be comfortable with that uh but since you'll never be able to identify those metrics or measure them accurately you just have to go by a proxy and I have a feeling you're just going off of gut instinct about what those proxies would be um my beef with that is that we can tell there are metrics so for instance I know somebody who wrote a really amazing book called of boys and men which details very compellingly statistics that you can look at that show boys and men are in real trouble and so I would say the data is out there for anybody that's willing to Define where they're trying to go to Define what metrics would indicate that we're headed in that direction and then have the courage to look at the data that we see now and either say yes we're moving in the right direction or no we are not right and so a lot here is going to hinge on our our selection of metrics yes um and and so uh if if you were to like we spent a lot of time talking about arcan aspects of British politics gender politics but you know you could say we increased the share we accelerated the share of women MPS and then entered a decade of the fastest economic growth that the UK has experienced for you know significant period of time do I think they're related no um but you could choose a metric uh particularly under an umbrella like human flourishing um that would that would give you what that would allow you to kind of post Hawk I there's a lot of post hwk rationalization going on in fact post hoc rationalization is the kind of ultimate postmodern skill and so you could do some post hoc rationalization to support that but I will say this that I I think that probably for reasons that are not related to tinkering or kind of social engineering that the political class as a whole has fundamentally failed to recognize the real problems of boys and men and the lack of flourishing in so many boys and men and so that that's an interest as to why that's happened like why that fa if if you agree a there are real problems facing boys and men B the political class as a whole has largely failed to acknowledge let alone address them why is that I think that's a a perfectly reasonable and a criticism I make a lot of the political class as a whole now as to why that is I don't know but I do know that it's true and I think that that failure on the part of the political class to recognize the problems of boys and men is in and of itself now part of the problem because it means that so many boys and men feel unseen and unheard and in a way I think that's a kind of mirror image of how a lot of women may have felt pre previously um which is that just I don't feel seen I don't feel heard I don't feel like the issues that kind of women are confronting this is a big part of the women's movement are being properly addressed and not being seen and not being heard and that's one of the reasons why there's a big argument for having more female representation because it's a sense that you're going to be seen and heard and so here I guess I'm going to argue against myself because although us politics is still skewed male there has been a huge failure in seeing male problems now as to why that is as I said I don't know but the downstream consequence of that failure are ones that we're still coming to terms with now if you run a small business and your goal is to stay competitive and grow effectively in 2024 then you need to make sure you have a killer CRM one that allows you to connect with your customers needs like never before HubSpot starter CRM Suite provides your small business with the essential tools education and support you need to grow efficiently attract new customers automate your Outreach save time and connect better with your customers with HubSpot the most powerful and easy to use customer relationship management system software with integrated marketing sales and customer service tools you have everything you need to efficiently build your business in no time find out why over 200,000 customers from more than 130 countries trust HubSpot to bring their team tools and data together all in one place and that includes the impact the team by the way click the link below to try HubSpot for free today well so I have a hypothesis about what happened it's something I'm sure you've heard about a lot of the audience will have heard about but you had a slow March through the institutions of a um hyper Progressive agenda to um Elevate marginalized so-called marginalized voices uh and when you have 30 40 Years of putting students through that cultural Machinery well on the other side is going to be a culture of people who believe that uh America as an oppressive Nation it was founded on oppression uh that men are problematic uh that men should feel bad about what they've done about uh they should feel bad about their um more masculine um impulses and tendencies and those things are bad and that men are basically broken women and if we're going to fix you you're going to act more feminine uh so people need a narrative they need to understand the world around them and a large way that they get that education is through the school system and so again if you spend 40 years putting people people through that system that A system that is increasingly that because first they go through a students then they come back as Educators so now the next bat of students has a sort of double reinforced thing um and it is not surprising to me that we've seen despite the fact that men remain in politics I would say largely because of biology uh so I'm sure you've seen these studies where it's like if you show uh God I can't remember if it's toddlers but you show real really young kids just pictures of a guy's face from a real election and they can accurately predict the person that's going to win just based on the features of their face so it's like usually the taller person wins like this this is not culturally inculcated stuff this is your history is a red and tooth and Claw thing and when you want somebody to lead you're going to want the person that's going to be out front of the battle that has military intelligence that knows how to take on a foe and so that that's just so ingrained in Us in the same way that we're afraid of snakes we turn to the bigger stronger more intelligent person to lead it just is what it is and I would say that the um same March to the institutions that has painted this oppressor oppressed narrative has also painted a picture of biology doesn't matter we're a blank slate uh it it's just it's it's all discombobulating it makes no sense and has led to the weird things that we see which is hey it's still all run by men for the biological reasons that I just laid out and men aren't thriving because of that shift of like well men you don't have any position all of your instincts you're told are bad and so you do that and you just get the the pulling back no sense of meaning and purpose not knowing what their role is which I think if you want to put a human being in Hell Rob them of meaning and purpose and don't let them kill themselves and I know that sounds terrible but living without meaning and purpose is horrific that's why people with no meaning and purpose commit suicide yeah so um the the points there's a point of disagreement and then a point of significant agreement I think between us on this so number one is around the kind of leadership uh leadership qualities and because we've been talking so much about the UK and I just you know have to go back to Margaret Thatcher when when the argentinians invaded the Faulkland Islands in 1982 every single man around her said we cannot get them back they're the other side of the world um it just costs so much money and lives and you know it's just not worth it prime minister they and and one of her Admirals we'd have to send in the whole Fleet and she said so send in the whole Fleet go get them back um so you know and that was a very impressionable time of my life and so kind of seeing Margaret Thatcher a woman overruled all the military men around her to send the nation to war and to Commander cruise ships um to fill them with soldiers to send them in some cases to their death to reclaim these Barren rocks of Ireland because by God they were British suggests that it's not only men that can have those characteristics and the distributions at the very least those distributions overlap in terms of those qualities so that may be the point of disagreement I I would violently with that that's why I'm saying these are all proxies I about the outcome so Margaret Thatcher and and a cabinet of women but she's bi but you said it was biolog you said it was biology correct and she's bi obviously biologically a woman correct that's but you have to admit that's the exception not the rule so I am for sure not saying that women can't do it 100% they can it is possible for any woman to be better than a man at something but once you start going onto the averages now all of a sudden it's like you the the averages begin to matter sure and I think that's the that's the point one of the points of agreement is and maybe this is a good way to kind of loop back some of the discussions we had earlier somebody once said that a huge amount of our problems stem from people's unwillingness or inability to imagine overlapping distributions and to imagine so when you say men are taller than women everybody knows what you mean by that what they know that what you mean is that on average men are taller than women right not that all men are taller than all women right um it means that very few of the people over six foot are women I don't know what the number is but it's tiny percentage of people over six foot but like a significant minority I wouldn't say the number because I get it wrong of women are taller than the median men right the distributions overlap in terms of height that's true of lots of the other characteristics we're talking about right so there is a difference on average between men and women on a bunch of characteristics and the distributions overlap and actually on many of those characteristics someone like Margaret Thatcher may have been more quotes male right or in my case I'm much more agreeable which is more a feminine trait than my wife she doesn't like me saying that on air so let keep that between us and and your listeners but she's much more disagreeable than I am right she's more male typically and so the point being that the distributions kind of hugely overlap and that that's just something that people really struggle to get their head arounds they either think men like this women like this or they think men and women are just the same and everything socialized we're tabular Raza and the only differences between men and women are the ones we learn and that's crazy I mean anyone that's been around men or women or raised them it's just it's in it's Insanity um to suggest that everything's socially determined as much as it is to suggest that everything's biologically determined so it's FR you know if I'm sound frustrated it's because it's just a stupid debate um where I think we can I agree with you is that recent Trends in a lot of political debate especially around gender especially on the left um have kind of framed this as quite zero some um and have have in fact kind of cast men as the problem rather than the system as a problem and and that's a real shift away I think from the best of the women's movement the best of the women's movement was kind of looking at structures and rules and various ways in which kind of women's opportunities were being enhanced and it was very much for women and I think in recent years it's become more framed more negatively and it's become more against men obviously against you know smash the patriarchy Etc um mansplaining tox the rise of the term toxic masculinity I think is a really good leading indicator of a very worrying Trend where it was actually about kind of pathologizing certain aspects or of male behavior and so I think that's been a really unfortunate turn uh in politics and I would i' have to add though that the reactionary right has very often done the same thing in saying that yeah men are struggling because women are doing too well and we have we know women have to get back we have to go back on women in order for men to rise again and so it's frustrating to see both sides very often playing a zero sum game but just from different sides right as if somehow for men to flourish women need to do worse or vice versa whereas actually we have to rise together um and we have to we have to see it interesting something interesting happened to me recently which is that Melinda French Gates who's one of the leading uh philanthropists around kind of women's rights tapped me to spend $20 million of her money on boys and men and that's a surprising move a lot of people were surprised by that but as she said publicly since it's because it's not good for women and girls if boys and men are struggle right and so there you have one of the world's leading feminists I think she would accept that later recognizing that we have to rise together and that women have a vested interest in male flourishing and vice versa and it's I think the ice is really breaking around this now I think people are over the zero some and they're ready for a a conversation which says if there is someone struggling to flourish if we if we're losing 40,000 men a year to Suicide that is a massive problem 40,000 every as many as many as we lose women to breast cancer different a problem but like in terms of scale um and Rising the fact that suicide among young men has risen by a third just since 2010 the fact that we lose so many male lives to drug poisonings now and deaths of Despair Etc the fact that so many men feel unneeded to come back to your point being unneeded is death like it's either a social or literal death sentence people are ready to really pay attention to those issues and they're sick of being told that they can't otherwise it would mean they somehow don't care about women and girls anymore like I've really disc just in the last couple of years even even since we spoke last I've really felt that the ground is moving here and that people are perfectly willing to have a conversation about boys and men so I wrote about it and everyone said be careful now I've created a whole new Institute the American Institute for boys and men and initially people are not sure about that now they're like yeah sure fine it's becoming boringly normal now right we do research we do policy we're worried about the and Men sure and I think within a couple of years people will wonder why will wonder why we didn't exist before so in other words the normies are winning on this stuff we are winning I'm I'm a self- declared proud Normy and and I just think that being able to think two thoughts at once and recognize that paying attention real attention to the problems of boys and men in a respectful and a compassionate way does not Mark you out as a frothing at the mouth misogynist we're winning um but it's it's we haven't won there's still a lot of obstacles to this but I have to tell you I've been pleasantly surprised by people's willingness to have this conversation I love that it's great uh on the surface it I think we we agree on most things but I can tell you feel that there's a thing that we disagree on which we do to put a fine point on it it is the base Assumption of whether tinkering is going to lead us somewhere good or whether the second and third order consequences that can't be seen by default you should just assume they're going to be problematic I think that's where we disagree um but now that we've planted a flag um a because I'm extremely convincible uh and B even if you can't convince me I'm still very sincerely interested as a a self-proclaimed policy wonk somebody that is uh building an Institute to think about these things with the 2024 election coming um do you hear policies coming out of the Harris and Trump camps that make you optimistic about the future of uh a nonzero sum game for men and women no that's the short answer short answer is no not yet at a national level I find politics to be pretty Frozen in a zero some position on issues of gender and I think that that is likely to deepen um we we'll see obviously Harris W it's new um but certainly all the signs I've seen so far is if anything it will deepen because actually the Republicans are attracting a lot more support from young men um whereas young women are tending even tending more liberal obviously the Democrats are running on a very kind of pro-woman agenda not least around Reproductive Rights Etc but even things like College college deck can olation is massively popular among women not so much among men and so there's lots of issues where they're kind of trying to really trying to win by turning out women's votes to a very significant extent including Suburban women around some of those issues meanwhile there has been a move among men uh young as I said young men also Black and Hispanic men we'll see if that continues to the Republicans and so you'll see JD Vance in particular but kind of trump really doubling down I think on this kind of R anti-feminist rhetoric you know the childless cat lady stuff that we've heard from Vance and others and and they'll do that because they actually you know it's working to some extent they're actually kind of if there are men out there who feel like you know things have gone too far or that men aren't being treated properly or they're not being respected Etc then I think Trump and Vance can they have a certain AFF effect and a certain set of messaging that can draw them but when it comes to policy there's just nothing on either side um you know I just think they're they're just dug in and an example that would be I don't if you know Senator Josh Hy or his work at all he's the Missouri Senator he's written a book called manhood and he's very he's he's really very interested in these issues and what I find interesting is that when the when the bipartisan infrastructure bill was passed which was the first major piece of legislation really helped working-class men most of the benefit went to working-class men because it's construction Transit man you um and the Democrats did everything possible to avoid that conclusion right when they were asked about it they would really Dodge the question they wouldn't say this is good for workingclass men they couldn't say that and then Josh Hy and I would say Trump Vance who say that they're on on the side of workingclass men a lot of them are against and Josh voted against the infrastructure bill right and so this's this kind of weird issue here where the people who claim to be on on the side of boys and men actually don't have policies to do anything to help them and the people who are interested in policies the policy wonks more on the left actually just aren't right now addressing the issues of boys and men that said at the state level at the kind of Governor level at the state level there's a lot more going on you're seeing moves to try and get more men into teaching Washington state is considering a commission on boys and men and they're obviously more Progressive State um the governor of Utah has created a c a task force on the well-being of poisoned men and there are a number of Governors and education secretaries who kind of engaged in this so once you get away from the national level at a state level there's just a much better conversation going on so I've been really pleased by the movement there let's see what happens after November I'll give you one like if super nerdy it like this isn't just in the weeds this is in the weeds within the weeds this is in the roots of the weeds it's so boring but there's something in the White House called the gender policy Council it replaced the Council on women and girls renamed itself but only addresses issues of women and girls so it's called the gender policy Council but doesn't do anything about boys and men even when there are massive gender gaps going the other way it just won't do it it's baked in it will only do it one way I think it's quite likely that if Harris wins she'll just keep it like that and it's quite likely that Trump wins he'll abolish it he'll just say this is a bunch of woke nonsense I'm getting rid of that right I can imagine that actually working for his base You' probably agree too because it's very tinkery right it's a gender policy counsil for goodness sake it's another piece of the government I would want either of them to expand its remit to actually try and work across departments to tackle some of the isues facing boys and men right now I don't see either candidate being willing to keep the gender policy Council but broaden its remit that it actually looks at the problems of boys and men I think the Democrats will keep it in its current asymmetric mode and the Republicans are quite likely to abolish it I don't know they haven't stated a position on that and so I'll give you that as an example of what I would consider my sort of boringly moderate Centrist tinkerer position on this which is say the gender policy Council would expand it is unlikely to find favor at a national level but that's exactly the kind of thing that's happening at a state level I like to think of it as the sexy Center uh and as somebody who also finds himself right pole dancing in the sexy Center uh in the middle of the White House exactly um so that's troubling and it's troubling because it feels so accurate but what do you think about um Harris's historical I don't know if she's going to update her thinking but her historical um hard push for Dei equity um that really turns me off I am I am wildly opposed to equity meaning equal outcome I don't think there's any way to do that except tyrannical top- down control um but maybe you have a different read what do you think well I don't do I don't do political punditry the last um senior politician I advised was Nick CLE when he was Deputy Prime Minister of the UK and after I advised him his part went down to its biggest electoral defeat since um World War II so since you know my phone hasn't been ringing off the hook since then for political advice and I'm I'm genuinely nonpartisan one it's very easy to appear nonpartisan when you're actually nonpartisan I've discovered so I'm not um and so I I I obviously don't know what either campaign will say about this but I do have views about Dei and equity and my basic view on this is that if you if you feel as if this I think is consistent with our conversation if you feel like the push for diversity Equity inclusion obviously you have to Define what you mean by those terms but if it's basically about trying to ensure more opportunities leveling the playing field reducing barriers if you feel like that's being driven by the data by the empirical evidence rather than by a fixed ideology then I think it doesn't run into some of the challenges that's run into now and so for example on college campuses one of the things I will say to to kind of college leaders Etc they will sometimes find that their Dei programs and this is obviously happening in a lot of States now they're being shut down or defunded and so on and what I'll often say to them is well I've just we've seen your numbers right you have a huge problem with male enrollment with male completion your own surveys show that men do not feel included on your campus so where in your Dei strategy is the stuff for men right and if it isn't then then it's reasonable to worry that your strategy is not actually being driven by your data it's being driven by some fixed ideological views about who you should be providing Equity to and if you've baked into your definition of equity that it can't possibly include men then it's you've just revealed your hand and you've shown that your agenda is not being driven by evidence is being driven by ideology and that's a frustration for me because I do think that a lot of the arguments that are made around diversity inclusion and even Equity depending on how you define it are pretty strong it's just that it's not being applied even-handedly right so like where are the men's Resource Center where are the male success centers where's the Outreach to men what are you do like what are you doing for men on your campus uh as part of your Dei agenda and by the way just from a tactical point of view if you wanted to save your Dei office from being shut down by it would be largely kind of Republican lawmakers what if you could turn around to them and say well we're doing this whole thing for white rural men because we've discovered that white rural men are not doing well on our campus do you make it a bit harder for them to shut you down wouldn't it I'm not saying he wouldn't shut you down but it would make it harder because you could say look we just go away we we we've looked at our data we've seen where we lack diversity we've seen where we lack equity and we've seen who doesn't feel included and guess what a bunch of them turn out to be men and so a big part of that agenda is men but that never happens and so to some extent I think it so many of the people who are pushing the equity agenda are shooting themselves in the foot by not following the data so for what it's worth that's my current view on it and that means of course that we might as a horrible cliche throw the baby out with a bath water and and what I find interesting is that these very small efforts that we see on college campuses now to help men they're usually out of the D I office so they're getting shut down as well ironically so even in the places where they have done it too little they're getting shut down as well that's really interesting the idea of following the data obviously that is speaking my language uh I'm really here for that I just worry tremendously about trying to steer towards equal outcomes just because everybody is so different even if just at the level of um intellect level of Desire like you're never going to to get an entire population there unless you tell everybody to slow down to the lowest common denominator uh which I very much don't think we want to do um but speaking to actually helping men I want to put to you what I think is legitimately the hardest question in what's going on with men right now which is through all of human history we have averaged twice as many women having or us having twice as many female ancestors as we have male there have been times post agriculture where that number was as high as 17 women reproducing for every one male uh that those numbers are are terrifying beyond belief to me and one solution that I see that will make it very clear how people think through this problem is AI Companions and sex robots and especially one coming together because now for the first time in human history we may be 7 to 10 years away from every every man being able to have a thriving sexual they won't be able to reproduce but a thriving sexual relationship with a companion uh that they can be intimate with and and no one need be left behind from that perspective you the reproduction part is different but um what do you think about that terrified or encouraged yeah I have mixed feelings is the honest answer answer and I I the twice as many ancestors want fact as one I like I haven't heard the 17 to one one before I'd love to learn maybe you can send me something about that yeah absolutely one of the things that I one of things I actually one of things I find really striking is there's lots of discussion of AI girlfriends um not much discussion of AI boyfriends which I think is pretty good evidence that there are differences between men and women when it comes to sex but someone said yeah but said that they could the AI husbands um and then actually I have a friend who got the AI to talk to his wife when she was having trouble at work and she said actually the AI is doing a better job than you because he would get frustrated and just want to fix it and be he wanted to go and watch the the ball game um whereas the AI was just had all time in the world was very thoughtful and just said God that must have been so difficult for you tell me more about that and how did that make you feel so he just left the AI playing while he went to watch the ball game and so the intriguing idea is that AI might substitute better for husbands in terms of relationships but but substitute um uh for men in terms of sex so I've mixed the reason I've mixed feelings about it is because I think that to go back a little bit the problem of surplus men which is the one you're pointing to with those statistics is a problem that every society's had to deal with what do you do with the men who are you're not going to reproduce and of course monogamy basically as Joe Henrik shows really kind of largely solved that problem um by actually doing monogamy it meant that most men would at least have a chance of maing if not reproducing and that massively changed those numbers just in the last few centuries but it's still been a problem what do you do with the men uh and we've had this growing problem of surplus men in the last few decades as well kind of men who are not marrying maybe men who are not in the labor market but that's coincided with the rise of technology and in particular video games and pornography and so we may have talked about this before but I think it's quite interesting that as we've seen more and more men at a loose end or without clear role you would have predicted that we'd see a massive rise in crime and antisocial Behavior but the Opposites happened you know with few few obvious exceptions but like crime and disord has gone down during the period where more and more young young men especially have had less to do in every previous era of human history that would have predicted more disorder CME those men would have been acting out on the streets it would have been would been more like more like mad Ms you know on the streets but actually the opposite happened and I think part of that is because of games uh and they've had somewhere else to go um somewhere else in some ways quite attractive and quite enticing and so you could if if that's right if the screens have to some extent saved us from what would otherwise potentially been some of the worst cultural consequences of male lack of purpose redundancy almost okay maybe maybe the counterfactual would have been a lot worse let fast forward that to AI girlfriends well what's the counterfactual if the counterfactual is men with good healthy in-person relationships then AI girlfriends in my view worse if the counterfactual is nothing maybe better right and and I think that's a really difficult position to take I would suggest though that if we do end up with massive demand for artificial forms of intimacy including sex but more generally we should treat that very seriously as a symptom of a lack of human flourishing to use your good I I I don't want to be judgmental about it and I'm being quite careful what I say here but I would say in general the evidence would suggest to me that over the long run especially that real human relationships are much more conducive to human flourishing than anything that you're likely to get with an AI and so if human flourishing is the goal that Trend where that to happen should really trouble us and if we see more and more young men resorting to that whilst it may not be bad in itself I think is a very bad sign it is a bad sign uh in terms of how many people are being left behind but if let's just assume that it's 50% and that um the because the stat that I was talking about I I think they're being very careful to denote that before agriculture no one could amass resources because resources you had to go kill in real time uh to eat but once agriculture comes along now you can amass real wealth uh and now suddenly one person I've heard you say I think it's utterly brilliant you mentioned it I think earlier but would you rather be the third or seventh wife of Jeff Bezos or the only wife to an unemployed steel worker um and that's what history is is uh up until agriculture it was probably two to one just given where we're at and then at some point it you're able to get these disproportion but it's really only in the last call it 10 to 12,000 years uh which is a blink in the eye of evolution okay so uh if it's a two to1 ratio yeah I'm not get yes no please no I was just saying that relates to the fertility question you raised earlier which is that one of the interesting Trends I just put the data point is that until about 10 or 15 years ago most of the decline in fertility uh was people having fewer children right so having two not three say but since since about 10 15 years ago it's been fewer people having children that's driving it and that's a that's a very different kind of ISS that's that that's a a big change kind of what's driving it I wasn't so worried about it when it was kind of people having fewer children I think it's a more troubling sign about human flourishing if it's more people not having children unless you had strong evidence they didn't want children right and that and the evidence for that is not that strong um it typically is people who otherwise otherwise probably would have had children but for whatever reason don't and one of the reasons they point to is because there aren't there aren't any there aren't any men around that they want to have children yeah yeah that that is uh probably too complicated for this interview it's it's worth an interview unto itself but um where I was going is if you have this 2:1 ratio then forever all throughout human history you've had this problem to deal with and up until now there really hasn't been a solution I don't think anybody except the most distressing among us uh would ever say well women should just marry a man that they're not into to make sure that that man isn't lonely um so assuming that no sociopaths are around and we are not suggesting that the very bad it's a very bad sales pitch to women isn't it h yeah terrible uh so assuming that we're not talking about that now you have literally for the first time ever you have an ability for those people not to get left behind and so for me even though I live in Perpetual Terror of second and third order consequences and I really cannot see around this corner and of course it will never be all the people that they maximized themselves did everything they could and they still can't find somebody that's interested in them them and so they turn to this it will be uh for many people just going to be the default because the the AI is not going to reject you it's going to embrace you um so I'm ecstatic that for the first time in human history we have a solution I'm terrified for all the questions that it begs but let's for the thought of a thought exercise or for the sake of a thought exercise let me put it to you this way um how would you want the AI companion stroke sex robot to be programmed so my wife for instance has shaped me and both through approval and disapproval would you want the AI wife we'll just assume wife would you want the AI wife or husband to shape their significant other through encouragement and discouragement to say that I'm out of my lane and comfort zone would be an understatement I just want to say one other thing maybe to buy a bit of time but um like we did have a solution uh it was called monogamy um and and it worked pretty well so we had polygamy for in most societies right and that's that caused this 5050 ratio that the two you know men only had a 50% chance of reproducing because you don't actually need that many men right so some men were doing a lot more reproducing with a lot more than one woman monogamy came along um larges of the church and and this I'm just really channeling Joe henrik's work here and so for a long that's sort of a pretty good solve and because women basically had to marry to survive then that lasted quite a long time as a solution quote unquote to this the problem of surplus men you didn't have Surplus men because the women had to marri to survive and they only and and men were only allowed to marry one right so do the math I think the issue is now is that we're entering a new phase and I talked bit about to Joe Henrik a bit about this myself which is that I don't think that we're going to go back to polygamy in any big way I mean obviously this discussion about polyamory I think instead what's going to come after monogamy is celibacy s single a single life for both men and women which is one of the reasons that we see this decline in fertility and and which I do think in the long run obviously there are lots of exceptions but it's kind of bad for long run human flourishing there's this phrase in kind of Chinese the empty branches I think it's either Japanese or Chinese like you get to old age you just don't have any relatives um and that's just not not great especially for flourishing in old age but I to come back to a question I just I'm desperately trying to draw on any kind of well of knowledge that would allow me to kind of answer that that question um about about kind of a ai ai robots and I just don't think I've got anything good to say about it um and so I think I'd probably better just duck the question Al together because it I I'll I'll be honest and say just I can't help but not feel a little bit dystopian um in even contemplating it and so it almost gives a bit too much Credence um to the idea that we're going to be reliant on AI for me to feel comfortable with it okay I'll see if I can draw you into those Waters in a minute but first I'll take the bait of what you've handed me uh so how is culturally enforced monogamy not forcing women to choose a man they would not otherwise be with say that again I didn't so we had said earlier that neither of us would want to see women be forced to choose a man that they don't want um sure in a world where dating apps have proven that women just aggregate to um sexual encounters with a very small number of men uh so that most men are not being successful on dating apps and when I say successful I mean penetration most men are not having sex with uh women and most women are gravitating towards a much smaller subset of men so one man is having sex with multiple women so women are saying when you give me this technology and the ability to choose I would rather be with the popular guy with the access to resources and be the 17th girlfriend then be the first and only girlfriend to somebody who I think is beneath me so they the question has been asked and answered so now that we know the question has been asked and answered uh and you have men being forced into celibacy and you have women that are saying no I'll have these flings or whatever and I may not end up having kids because I never find anybody to settle down with but I'm certainly willing to have these sexual dalliances with these very high status males okay so we are maybe we're not calling it polyamory seems like it Rhymes to me but if if that's where people left to their own devices settle out if we turn to monogamy and go well this was really a good solution how would that not be in the modern context forcing them to be with somebody they wouldn't otherwise be with now it's cultural enforcement it is not um governmental enforcements not be done by physical Force but how is that not enforcement nonetheless right so I think that I I think it's a mistake to extrapolate from what's happening in dating apps and Dianes um and very short-term relationships perhaps largely based around sex to people's preferences for long-term relationships and so I think you've described as far as I know what's happening on dating Maps very accurately but I take at face value the fact that most people will say that they do want a long-term relationship that they do want to probably have a family um and that very often what women say the problem is not on the demand side it's on the supply side and and that they just can't find men with whom they are willing to have children and that maybe they've expected men to do more of than maturing before the relationship before the marriage than in the past where the men would mature through marriage and so I actually do think there was something to the fact that kind of marriage kind of was a me institution that helped to help men to mature to kind of to be civilized to use some other language that people use whereas I think now women are saying no no no I'm my I'm I'm not civilizing you you get civilized first right you get mature first you you get your act together first and then then I might marry that's a massive change and I think that kind of a lot of men are really struggling with that shift even if they don't think about it that way and so no coercion but take it face value that is probably what most people want um and do everything we can to help men to be better partners and better husbands and be better prospects I mean I do think there's something to the fact that improving the kinds of men that are on the market to use this terminology is a big part is a big part of it and that that will be so I don't think we solve the problem by in any way in I mean you've made it clear you mean culturally but even culturally suggesting to women that they should marry men that they don't feel they want that they are happy with we should create men that they will be happy with and so that brings us back to I think where we started which is the challenges that men are facing in their physical health their mental health their education their sense of themselves their efficacy their all of the all of the things that men are really struggling with with are not only hurting them they're hurting the marital prospects of their female peers and I find it super interesting that when I talk about these issues of men middle-aged women sort of women in their 40s 50s 60s they're like really like is that right because they faced a lot of glass ceilings maybe kind that doesn't sound right women in their 20s regardless of their politics they get it straight away because I'm talking about that we're talking about their peers um and so it's interesting that you don't have to do as much convincing of the typical 25y old woman as you do the typical 55y old woman that young men are struggling um because it feels existential for those L those young women and I presume based on some pretty good evidence that most of those young women would actually prefer everything a equal at some point to find a partner and have children with that partner and raise those kids together that is still the stated preference of most young women so I don't think it's a problem of what people's preferences are I think it's a problem of finding someone who can do that I do worry a lot that right now young women and young men don't feel very aligned in their interests they don't they feel if anything like they're separating not only kind of physically and romantically but also and we saw and I said politically but just culturally I kind of think there's this kind of growing gap between young men and young women and that really troubles me from all kinds of perspectives not least family formation yeah so I think that you've got your fing on a potential solution which is for men to rise up uh let me ask do you think that China's policies are going to Output men that women will prefer compared to what we're doing here in the US currently which is letting them flounder which policies which policies do you have in mind specifically you may know more about this yeah so this is utterly fascinating in fact I have a quote here uh that I pulled during my prep so according to the BBC a top Chinese official said and I actually went and read this um so I I will agree this is what it says uh there is a trend among young Chinese males towards feminization which would inevitably endanger the survival and development of the Chinese Nation unless it is effectively managed uh and so they're doing all kinds of stuff that there's like a whole list of proposed policies I don't know how many of these they have or will implement but this was the um government the educational body making a proposal that they wanted the government to basically sanction and they said uh we want um more focus on physical education getting the boys out there playing sports being aggressive uh getting physically fit we want more um former athletes as physical education instructors uh they're putting huge limitations on the amount that um people under 18 can play video games um and there was a couple other things designed basically to get the PE oh uh getting stars that are uh represent a very masc UL muscular physique so that people that are being celebrated uh to the country represent that sort of um male traditional male they didn't say like 80s Action Hero and I doubt they mean something like that but the images at least in the article were just um guys that were ripped they had muscles and they were in the middle of doing very physical things um but just they are just stating outright that they're worried that um Chinese men are becoming uh feminized in and of itself is is pretty interesting and given that they are so prone to controlling their populace through policies that are very difficult to sidestep like they'll just shut off your internet or uh they won't let you spend money on things that they deem unworthy so uh do you think Draconian or not that that will end up outputting men that women are more satisfied with yeah I mean say they don't Tinker the Chinese they're not a little beyond that which is I mean at the very least as a social scientist I'm excited by the opportunity to research it agre and I what I hope they'll do what would be great is if they introduce these rules say the internet rules or the you the gaming rules at different times in different provinces so that again we get a nice natural experiment there is really good work showing the impact of the one child policy on the number of surplus men later uh and they could do that because it was the one child policy was introduced at different times in different Chinese provinces and so you could literally time it till 18 years later so look I mean as you go through the list of things and byy and Li I don't think starting off by kind of telling men that they become too soft and feminine is a great PR approach um so I would say that that's bad messaging um but in terms of like the the specific things you've mentioned like I think it's quite hard to argue against most of them I don't freak out about video games like some people people um I worry that it kind of pushes out some other activities I worry a lot about the lack of physical health um and phys you know boys and this is true for boys and girls but for kind of boys and men especially I think kind of lack of physical activity seems to be particularly damaging so I worry a lot about that so more of that would be good um so on the face of it some of this stuff looks looks interesting even the role model stuff seems okay it's just that you don't want to do that so here I'll end up agreeing with you you just generally don't want to do that through kind of top down policies and I think that if it feels top down it's much less likely to succeed than if it feels organic but one of the things I'm very interested in now if you look at people who are online and the kind of the sorts of podcasts perhaps including this one that that a lot of men kind of Might listen to or the sort of figures they turn to of course you've got the kind of extreme manosphere men's rights types but what I find quite interesting is how many people are attracted to more of the kind of Fitness types the kind and you know I'm thinking about people Andrew huberman and Peter AA you mentioned David Goggins earlier and so on too like these are these are men who no one would think of as in any way kind of crazy or reactionary or anything and they're all about like living well and a lot of Fitness stuff and so I'm very struck by how many young men are really into that kind of thing and so I think what's happening there is that a model of masculinity if you like that's largely being refracted through discussions about physical health and so it's not threatening to a lot of men but they embody a certain way of being male that's very attractive and very aspirational to boys and young men and that's good right we should want them to Aspire to be physically healthy to be strong right that's good that's just good for your health and and if those men are also just they have a way of being in their conversation that's aspirational as well that's amazing and so I'm picking on Andrew huberman but like you take someone like hu huberman who's just all about the just geeky scientist Fitness guy but he's also you know fit and he talks a lot about his own Fitness and so on too he has a huge following of young men among young men that's awesome I don't think the Chinese government saying you should be like Andrew huberman or whoever the Chinese Andrew huberman is is a very effective strategy I think what's great is if Andrew huberman exists and millions of young men flock to him awwesome that's happening organically and it also shows you that is really what young men are interested in and will that help to create more marriageable men more metable men let's hope so yeah I agree I think putting it out into the well so let me State the answer to my own question simply yes I think that uh by focusing men on an Ideal that is more masculine that will pay off in terms of creating men that Wom women are far more likely to be attracted to now if you leave out things like emotional intelligence a desire to see your partner Thrive you're going to have problems so if you're hearkening back to sort of caveman Style no that's not going to work but um I think it is very instructive if men look at the uh female version of pornography which is the romance novel I'm sure some people will take exception to that until you read one and then you realize it really is pornography for women uh and and that like that breaks into these just super clear-cut archetypes of the pirate vampire werewolf billionaire doctor and I think there's one other but it's like that women just go Cowboy yeah basically women are going for it's the Beauty and the Beast archetype they want to tame the untamable man who through their sort of um feminine wilds and sexual prowess they are able to tame this all-conquering Beast that for nobody nobody else could get access to this sort of inner gooey Center of uh emotional communication and attachment that's the female fantasy and so once you understand oh you can actually become that but you all you have to be an integrated beast and have that gooey Center that can be access that you can be articulate and loving and committed um and if you can find a path to that integration then you've got a real shot and if you can't then you're going to be in trouble all right yeah it's I do I find those sort of fantasy things instructive and interesting as long as we always remember of course that they kind of fantasies but I was I I ran across a news article the other day which showed which said that romance novels are really booming among gen Z women so young women in particular seem to be kind of turning to those those novels and I was frustrated with the way it was reported because then it kind of talks about the lack of diversity in the authors um but and which I thought kind of missed the lead which is how interesting that kind of young women are turning to these kind of romance novels and so I talked to some young women about it um this one of my my son's friends were over and they were like well it's because a lot of those young women feel they lack it in real life um now of course you can have it in real life and still have want the fantasy and so on too I'm not suggesting that they are counterposed but but nonetheless it was instructive to me that there's a danger that in some of our slightly antiseptic approaches is to sex ed and to relationships and to a kind of risk aversion in some ways that we do take some of the romance out um uh and that actually being able to successfully navigate those romantic relationships is part of growing up we had a we we actually published a piece by Daniel Cox who's a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute on why he's worried that teens aren't dating as much so was it's good news that teen pregnancy's down um and and it may be good news that teens are having sex later it's not good news that they're dating less and the reason he believes that and I believe this too is that because it's through those earlier dating experiences that you you learn a lot of those skills like it's hard there's rejection there's misunderstanding there's kind of how do you how do you like it's it's one of the most difficult areas of human life to navigate right that kind of that entering the zone of kind of romance and I I worry a lot about deskilling I worry a lot the both young men and young women but perhaps are getting deskilled around that and then they hit they hit the kind of world of Romance the world of dating in their and actually Dan Cox is writing a book about this like in their mid 20s and they're still pretty unskilled right so they've maybe got the skill level of yesterday 17y old or whatever whatever you want to say and so they blunder and they don't really know what they're doing and they lack confidence and they they get it wrong and so anyway it's a it's a a long answer but I I'm I'm I'm really interested in what's happening to young people romantically and a bit troubled by the signs that there's been this Progressive deskilling because it's difficult right and you know I'm old and I'm my mid-50s and like you learn this stuff the hard way um by getting it wrong and learning how to take rejection and and so on and I worry that without the skills you you just Retreat and so this maybe brings us back to where we were a while ago which is the thing that worries me most about young men in particular but perhaps I shouldn't perhaps men generally is not the ones who are acting out there are a few of those but not many it's the ones who are checking in it's the ones who are retreating sometimes online spaces and I think it's that sense of male Retreat I think you maybe even use that term before are just kind of backing away from the challenges of work study life self-improvement right that is the most troubling of all right it's it's that it's the checked out men that we should be spending most of our time on but it's the acting out men who get the headlines uh rather than ones to just quietly giving up and sometimes most tragically giving up even on themselves what do you think they have in common have they em bibbed an idea that's holding them back are they um just getting clobber an education system that's wildly female I I think they're coming out of an education system that has not served them well and that has sent them the message that they're just not very good at this education system that has not provided them Alternatives I mean this is a very wonky point to make along the way but I think that I've written a lot about this that the lack of vocational training the lack of Hands-On learning opportunities has just been really bad news for boys and men um because the last year or two of high school is just basically just a massive cratering waste of time for a lot of boys and so they drop out I mean they just they fall off the end of the conveyor Bel of the K12 education system having basically felt like they failed um and then they may be trying and get some sort of post-secondary Education they really struggle in the labor market employers are actually a little bit less likely to want to hire young men than young women now um because they see them as slightly riskier highers they're struggling in the labor market wait can you I've never heard that before people consider men RIS yeah we've actually again I'm just advertising but um we just published a piece by Matt Darling which had a really nice natural experiment in it where they basically made it a bit more expensive for employers to fire people in one state compared to another state it changed the law around unemployment insurance and what that's an experiment what that tells you is if you make it slightly you you make it a little bit riskier to hire people then see what happens to hiring patents and what happened was by raising the cost of firing people employers became less likely to hire young men than young women and so the obvious conclusion there is they just see young men as a little bit riskier right that's the the natural conclusion is you just you raise the you raise the kind of like if am I am I going to have to fire this person and if so that's going to cost me more then you're going to be more careful who you hire right you're not going to take a risk and it turned out less like our young men so you can look at Matt darling's paper on that so but I think more generally there's just this sort of sense of deskilling a city and and also I just think back to this question that we've been I think talking about a lot in this conversation which is a lot of young men will say to me something along the lines of I've been told a lot about the things I shouldn't do and the things I shouldn't say so they've effectiv been given a long list of don'ts don't say this don't do that don't think this don't be like that right it's a long list largely negative and really no dos it's back to this point we made earlier about not having a script and so if they found themselves and their own sense of themselves as boys and men if it's defined at all defined largely in negative terms but still none less being a man right that leaves them really underpowered really risk averse really uncertain about how to engage and really worried that if they engage and they get it wrong that they'll be shouted down or they'll fail or they'll crash and burn so better not to try and so I do think that that kind of backing away from some of these challenging situations which is really what you see like young men just that young men are less likely to leave home than women they're less likely to move away than women they're less likely to study abroad than women um and so you're just seeing this kind of sort of wh you know the IDE the idea of the kind of Go West Young Man Adventurer thing is just completely flipped in terms of gender and it's great that women are doing that but it's not great that young you know 24 year old man is 10 percentage points more likely to be living at home than a 24 year old woman like it's 34% versus 24% wow and so there's just this Failure to Launch thing that's a Trope but true and I think it's because we're not telling a good story to come back to your point about how great it is to be a guy right I'll risk saying that right and if we're not telling if we don't have stories and Role Models about how fantastic it is to be male and we have a lot of stories about what's bad about being male the resulting asymmetry is incredibly disempowering especially for men who maybe don't have the resources or the skills to navigate and so we're navigating much much more difficult Waters now romantically and economically and socially and culturally and the guys who have the skills to navigate that water are going to do fine but the guys who don't are not going to do fine and they're the ones I'm really worried about why is it awesome to be male isn't it I think it is don't you think it for sure yeah but I also grew up in the 80s so I got a way better story yeah me too yeah I well I I think about a lot about male friends I think first like the the way the male friendships work the kind of banter and the just the kind of way we lovingly lay into each other I think that's and I have it with my sons now I think that's beautiful I think some of the kind of physicality of being male is great right I've kind of loved Sports and just like that sense of um uh yeah physical Adventure I think that's great um there's something about I mean obviously I can't put myself kind of in the the kind of Mind of a woman but I think just male sexuality um and sex drive U which is one of the kind of big differences I think obviously channeled appropriately all the usual caveats I think that's it's great it's kind of great to be interested in uh into sex and it's great to have desire and I think there's a lot of desire on the male side of the equation sexually and so I think that's that's great and I also think it's great to in some way feel like because of the physical differences that there are between men and women to feel like you can to some extent still if necessary be kind of physically protective um now of course fortunately that's much less necessary now actually I was on a I was on a panel recently with the governor of Maryland Wes Moore and he said um I don't if you know him but he's a former parat TR er a US paratrooper huge guy incredibly fit guy um and he said my wife actually says she never feels safer than when I'm at home with her and I said it's weird because my wife never says that about me but she would say that about you um where if Cy is a formidable physical presence but that's not quite true actually um and one of the things that I I think that it's okay to say is that there is a male responsibility to look after those who are weaker or more vulnerable um than themselves and so one of the things I've I've tried to do and I've said this in various places so I apologize if you heard me say this before but but that as I've raised my three boys all now grown men all in their 20s I've tried to raise them to have the courage to ask a girl out the grace to accept no for an answer there's no entitlement there and the responsibility to make sure but either way she gets home safely and so what's captured in that is the sense of like being willing to put yourself out there ask a girl out right just being willing to kind of just like go for it and that's that's not only okay it's good that you can win but then the second bit of it is Grace except no you have no sense of entitlement about that there is absolutely like she can say no it might not work out hopefully she'll she'll say no gracefully as long as you've done it gracefully there's a Grace to rejection but then either way like you need to make sure she gets home safe and I used to have an extension on their curfew they could get they could actually come home a little bit after their curfew this is when they were teenagers um if if I knew that was because they were getting someone home safely usually a girl and I'm sorry but like my son's are 6'4 and you know they they're big guys and maybe that's maybe size is not the thing it matters there but like if that meant getting someone safely that's great it's just a truth and just very recently I was at a conference and I was with a female colleague about the same age as mine and she was going to get her car um kind of in a coverboard garage and I went with her and I said would you like me to said thank God you asked right but I think a lot of men now actually wouldn't even ask for sure they'd be worried that that would be misconstrued they'd be worried that you're being sexist or creepy or whatever and she was like thank you for asking right because she didn't want to go in there on her own she just felt a bit safer to have someone go with her and and do that so anyway I'm going on a little bit and answer your question but there are some aspects of being kind of male that I've listed there that are just a little bit off the cuff um and that are great and you don't have to say them necessarily but you just have to show them and kind of be them and make sure that we're again that's not defining this in the wrong way I just had this um there's a feminist philosopher called Kate man and she just wrote something just today saying Tim Walls is a got a model of non-toxic masculinity um and I and I just like is that the best we can do like really like yeah and for her that was a concession but like non-toxic masculinity like know what an exciting Vision that you could actually not be poisonous you could actually not be a pathogen yay you too you too could be a non-toxic male I mean talk about a bad PR campaign and then we wonder why boys aren't attracted to those messages which is like we're going to teach you to not be toxic and again more deeply you're just framing this whole thing in negative terms it's like original sin it's like we're just we're going to we're going to we're going to show you how to not be not be bad well for the love of God could we not actually talk about how to show you how to be good and what it means to be a good man not just how to not be a bad man and that's been a big problem in our cultural discourse over the last couple of decades we've just done we have not done enough of how to be a good man and we've done too much of the how not to be a bad man I love it man I totally agree I always love my time with you where can people follow you read your work I'd love people to go to the to the brand new Think Tank the American Institute for boys and men and that's just aibm uh.org uh and I'm on all the usual places with Richard V Reeves and Twitter Etc and that's my website address too love the conversation took as always took us to places that were unusual and discomforting and Illuminating so I thank you for that truly my pleasure man thanks for joining me everybody out there if you haven't already be sure to subscribe and until next time my friends be legendary take care peace if you like this conversation check out this episode to learn more do you think men are being taught to be weak right now yes definitely what oh no it's worse than being taught they're being enticed toward that in every way tell me more and punished for not doing it well they're enticed to work