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Language: en
An asteroid might be on a collision
course to hit Earth in 2032, but what
exactly are the odds of disaster? And is
there anything we can do about it?
Asteroid 2024 YR4 measures between 130
and 330 ft long. It was spotted during
its orbit around the sun traveling away
from Earth in late December 2024. Thanks
to Atlas, a four telescope alert system
that identifies near-Earth objects,
space agencies estimate that there's
about a 2% chance that the asteroid will
hit Earth in December 2032. But as
astronomers continue to track the
asteroid and refine their calculations,
they say that probability is likely to
drop to zero. After astronomers
discovered the asteroid Apous in 2004,
they calculated it had about a 2.7%
chance of colliding with Earth. But
after months of observations, scientists
were able to update their predictions.
They determined that it'll pass very
close to Earth in 2029, but the chances
of collision are now zero. They expect
the same thing to happen with asteroid
2024 YR4.
But in the unlikely event the 2024 YR4
does strike Earth, it would impact at a
speed of around 38,000 mph and generate
an explosion equal to nearly 8 million
tons of TNT. That's 500 times the power
of the atomic bomb that was dropped on
Hiroshima during World War II. It
wouldn't be big enough to kickstart a
mass extinction like the one that led to
the end of the dinosaurs. That asteroid
was about 150 to 250 times larger, but
it would have the potential to destroy a
city. Or if it lands in the ocean, which
scientists think is more likely, the
resulting tsunami could devastate nearby
coasts. The damage from the explosion on
land could extend roughly as far as a 30
m radius from the impact site. NASA
astronomers have come up with a risk
corridor, an area where impact would be
most likely given the asteroid's current
path. This area goes from northern South
America across the Atlantic Ocean to
Africa, the Arabian Sea, and Southern
Asia. As the asteroid continues on its
orbit around the sun, it'll begin to
fade from view of Earth-based telescopes
by midappril 2025. It won't be visible
again until mid 2028, at which point
astronomers will be able to calculate a
more accurate trajectory. But what if
the likelihood of impact goes up and not
down as astronomers predict? What then?
In 2022, NASA successfully crashed a
spacecraft into an asteroid to change
its trajectory. Space agencies could try
and do something similar with asteroid
2024 YR4 to change its collision course.
This strategy is still experimental, but
it's a promising way to defend our
planet. Although astronomers think the
risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 actually
hitting Earth is very low, it highlights
a potential new trend. As telescopes and
cameras have gotten better at finding
objects wandering around the solar
system, this type of warning will likely
become more common. But don't take that
as a harbinger of doom. Just because
we're better at detecting potentially
hazardous asteroids doesn't mean our
risk is any greater.