Kind: captions
Language: en
you could be the seventh best player in
the whole world like literally seven
best player but if you're playing with
the other six you're the sucker you are
you are the like the worst player in the
game right so like there's a lot of
players
for example like the Dan bilzerians of
the world right he's not a top level
player like you know these guys you see
on TV but he probably makes more money
than they do because he plays with
people that are far below his skill
level so part of the part of the skill
of being a poker player is finding
situations where you're profitable you
know regardless of your skill level
the following is a conversation with
Daniel negrano one of the greatest poker
players of all time this is the Lex
Friedman podcast to support it please
check out our sponsors in the
description and now dear friends here's
Daniel negrono
everything everyone does at the poker
table conveys information so let me ask
sort of the big overview question what
are the various sources of information
that you project and others project at
the table that convey information well
there's several different things there's
the ones that are conscious and then
there's the ones that are subconscious
right like on the conscious level it
might be something someone says right
you know you ask them a question and
they say oh you know you shouldn't call
me here you should so there's the verbal
tells there's also the more you know
subconscious stuff body posture right
the eyes the throat the pulse
um various things that are you know less
controllable I find I use a combination
of both to try to gain information but
generally when I have somebody more
comfortable they give off more when like
everyone has a different approach Phil
Ivey likes to intimidate I go the other
way I want my opponents to be relaxed so
that they'll give me more in that regard
so Phil Ivey likes to perturb the system
like mess with it to see what comes out
I think Phil has an aura about him where
he wants you to know that he's watching
you be afraid be uncomfortable because
when you're uncomfortable I got you
right and that's sort of his shtick
where he you know and people do like
when you sit at a table with Phil Ivey
it's it's intimidating he likes to rule
by fear and you like to rule by uh what
is it love that's a really good way to
put it I never had anyone put it like
that but it makes a lot of sense yeah
you know fear Phil Ivy and then with me
it's fine don't worry I'll take your
money but you're gonna enjoy it it's
great so that's what the talking at the
table is about us get him to be relaxed
and get some of that gray area between
the Consciousness and the subconscious
to reveal something yeah there's that
too and also just you know and this is
just part of who I am anyway like I like
to talk to people but one of the
byproducts is the more I know about you
the more I likely know about how you
think about different situations right
so what do you do for a living oh I'm a
lawyer I defend criminals okay so this
guy probably spends a lot of his time
twisting the truth trying to find you
know and then so then you know you
already have a mindset of like this guy
might be more likely to Bluff or he's
probably comfortable doing that very
subtle things like that and you start to
uh pick up cues on what nervousness
looks like for this person what the
nervousness communicates all that kind
of stuff so we're talking about physical
test here
the secondary thing though I was more
specific like player profiling right
instead of understanding the type of
mind that I'm dealing with right
um so again somebody who's a lawyer is
is used to trying is is fine with being
deceptive as part of a game right
whereas maybe somebody's a Sunday school
teacher and you know they don't feel
comfortable they maybe they think
bluffing might be dishonest right so
they're less likely to try some
Shenanigans against you so and then the
other thing too is what type of person
is this in terms of their
um you know out like view on life right
are they positive do they feel like
things go their way or they're not right
there's those people that always well of
course I lost I always lose with this
hand and those types of people you can
manipulate because when a card comes
that you don't you don't have them beat
right but you can pretend because
they'll believe it like of course you
beat me so you bet all your chips
against them knowing that you can scare
them because they're they they already
feel like they're gonna lose the
inherent like the cynicism exact
cynicism is easier to play against
because you can convince them that their
cards suck yeah when somebody believes
that they're a loser or they're unlucky
right and that bad things happen to them
always and they never catch a break well
you know you can just help them make it
true
what do you think about the rounders
Teddy KGB when he does the Oreo tell do
players at the high level communicate
that kind of stuff do you think it's
realistic to be able to have a tell like
this that's partially subconscious so
first of all I love Brian koppelman who
made the film and uh I think what they
were going for is something obvious to
the general visually right like okay
it's very clear you know he eats the
cookie he doesn't eat the cookie and it
means one or the other at the highest
levels something that you know blatant
you're not gonna find you're going to
find a lot more subtle things maybe with
posture or or timing or you know
different things like that but at the
lower levels you know you know you might
see some you might see you know with a
lot of people when they're in a hand and
they've bet whether they drink water in
the hand is going to tell you something
generally speaking it's such an intimate
part of the human experience that I feel
like if you have food you're going to
reveal something about yourself through
the way you eat I feel like that's a
dangerous thing to have with the table
well the thing is generally speaking
people don't eat food in the middle of a
hand like they're not gonna bet and then
just like I need a burger right what
they will do though is you know they bet
and it's up to you and then they're
whether they're on you know
uncomfortable or they do it
unconsciously they just want to do
something to make themselves look
relaxed or whatever and you know they
grab a water where they don't really
need it in that moment but they're
trying to take your mind off of the
situation
so they in the movie wanted to show a
simplistic version of something that
does happen something that's visually
sort of uh clear yeah because I think
one of the things rounders got right is
that it's a poker movie right but you
don't have to be great at poker really
understand poker to enjoy the movie and
that you know Oreo cookie tell like
everyone gets that like okay that's
simple if he would have went with
something more subtle you know like
licking your lips or looking to the
right and I think it might have been
lost on the audience and they didn't
actually explicitly
say that that was a tell I don't think
they thought they did everything to let
you know right with the music and slow
motion and he's staring at it and he's
like aha yeah but they didn't actually
say you know this is an obvious tell
like uh my famous characters at the very
end of it yeah you know after he he says
how the fuck did you lay that down
monster right and he's like he's he's
like he's like you're not hungry not
hungry KGB he's like I keep on you know
he sort of references it and then he
takes the cookies he notices he's like
ah he got me and he breaks the you know
the racket well probably if you had that
kind of tell on him you wouldn't in Matt
Damon's character would not reveal well
he says in the movie he says normally I
wouldn't reveal a tale but I don't have
that much time like I've got to Rattle
him some way yeah so that that was one
way to do that how hard is it to do that
to uh in the KGB accent uh to lay down a
monster in those situations in general
how hard is it to lay down a really
strong hand just psychologically yeah no
I mean I think it's incredibly difficult
for the vast majority of people you know
part of what makes professionals really
really good is recognizing a situation
that's very very dangerous and they need
to you know jump ship like what happens
to a lot of players is you get married
to a hand let's say you have pocket aces
which is the best possible hand right
but the board runs out where it's seven
eight nine and then there's a Jack and
then there's a six it's like you have a
great hand to start but you don't
anymore so one of the difficult things
for the average player is you know once
they've put money in cutting their
losses and saying okay let's move on to
the next hand it's very very difficult
thing for a lot of people at every stage
of like pre-flop all the way through be
able to just make a decision on at that
point so yeah essentially not being
attached okay I've already put in forty
thousand dollars in this pot and this
guy's bet another 20. well I mean I got
to get my 40 back right except you know
in some cases you have to reassess
individually this situation and realize
all right well this is a bad investment
so I got to cut my losses by the way I
should I should mention that you have
you have an incredible YouTube channel
where you explain a lot of stuff you do
a podcast you do a lot of really awesome
stuff my probably favorite thing that
you've done is your master class uh that
people should definitely check out
masterclass.com Lux there you go uh no
but it really is
one of my favorite Master Class courses
but also just a great introduction
overview of Poker it's great for people
that like me who are beginners
essentially but it's probably really
good for intermediate people too I mean
there's a lot of really good detail
there anyway what are hand ranges and uh
how do you begin to estimate the range
of hands that your opponents have yeah
so I actually speaking to YouTube I did
a video on specifically this yeah
familiar with Rangers and essentially
you know back in my day the old days we
didn't talk about poker that way we're
like I think he's got this or I think
he's got that right uh nobody thought of
like the range of hands a player can
have so I guess the best example is
Imagine like all the potential hands as
being a part of a grid right so the
first player to act they could have any
one of those hands right anyone randomly
dealt right but let's say now that that
player raised to three thousand dollars
okay well you can eliminate now from
this grid a whole bunch of hands that
this player can no longer have because
if they had a two and a three they
wouldn't do that so you can say okay he
probably has a big pair he has Ace King
you know you've you've narrowed the
range of hands down right now through
every action on the Flop on the turn and
on the river based on the decisions they
make you narrow it down even further so
the range of hands is the whole uh the
entirety of all the possibilities that
this player you believe could have and
sometimes they fool you or they have a
hand that you don't expect them to have
in their range and you know maybe a
little bit uh unorthodox doing some
things you don't expect to throw you off
but a range is essentially all the
possibilities and it Narrows as by the
time before the Flop it's endless player
raises okay it's minimized and now a
player bets the Flop okay it's minimized
further and then by the river you know
you can narrow down the entire range to
you know just maybe even a few hands is
it always shrinking or is there sort of
as you get surprised I mean it's always
just an estimate so is does it ever
expand based on sort of chaotic
unpredicted surprising behavior of the
players it really should never expand
the range of hands should always get
smaller right like again we start with
with the the full the full scope and
then you should factor in like okay
these are all the possible hands you can
have on the Flop now right we can't have
new hands on the turn and if you if you
get to that point where you think oh
well maybe he has this hand then you
then you sort of misjudged his range
prior so you're not thinking clearly it
should always shrink from the full scope
to you know hopefully just a couple well
in that video you'll also talk about it
used to be that you would play your hand
but now you're playing a range that
you're representing a range you're not
even just playing your hand so what does
it mean to represent a certain range
yeah so that's another big thing that's
different about poker from you know my
day to today is that back in our day we
would like put people on one hand like
you probably have King nine or you have
jax or something like that now people
are cognizant of the idea that you could
have an entire range of hands so then
you ask yourself in situations all right
I know what I have but what I could have
in his mind or my opponent's mind is any
one of these hands what would I do with
the entirety of the these hands and so a
lot of people that are trying to play
optimally you know game three optimal
they think in terms of what their range
of hands would do rather than their very
specific hand
so as is bluffing in that context
essentially misrepresenting the range of
hands that you have no is that how you
think about it not exactly because so an
optimal range like if I bet the river if
I'm playing game three optimal a portion
of my range is going to be I have it I
got I got the best hand and a portion of
my range is going to be Bluffs and
they'll be balanced so in theory no
matter what you do okay no matter what
you do if you call or you fold in theory
it's just you're printing a zero as we
say you're not you're not getting
gaining or losing any EV if you were to
do it that way what's EV Eevee is
expected value right so every play that
you make you know it either is going to
in the long run you know make you some
money or it's it's just a losing play
and as a professional you try to make
the fewest amount of minor CV plays you
can and the only reason you would make
these minor CV plays is potentially if
you're trying to set up your opponent
for something later right so I might
make some minor CV plays right so that I
can exploit you later right so you're
building up building up an image a
player profile that's false in some way
something that I'm gonna I'm gonna plant
seeds in your mind so that I can exploit
them later so for example why would
players like show a big Bluff yeah like
what would be the reason for that they
show a big Bluff so that you know
they're capable of it but maybe in their
mind they're never going to do that
again but now they think you know he
bluffed me last time maybe he's doing it
again but that's a what we call like a
level a leveling War because it you know
you can go back and forth with whether
or not okay this guy might know that
like he showed a bluff because he's
never going to Bluff me again so that
that's where it gets a little so that's
a little bit different though when we're
talking about hand Rangers that's
different than
building up a mental model of what your
opponents what your opponents think of
you
and what your opponents think that you
think of them and and so on so forth are
you trying to construct those kinds of
method models and is that separate from
the hand ranges they go hand in hand
right so if any given in a given
situation right my range has this many
value hands and this many Bluffs okay so
in theory if I want to be balanced you
know this is my range and this is what
it looks like I'll bet this 50 of the
time bet this 50 time however if I know
that you
think that I Bluff too much right then
I'm not going to Bluff as much I'm going
to start instead of betting these hands
that I would 50 50. now what I'll do is
I'll do like 70 30 where I'm basically
value betting most of the time against
you you know or vice versa if I know you
always fold because you think I have it
I'm going to Veer the other way and
instead of bluffing fifty percent I left
70 80 percent of the time to take
advantage of your perception of me so to
be successful do you have to construct a
solid model of all the players in the
game or can you ignore them I think it's
really important like when I play I have
in my phone I have a player profile of
everyone that I play with whenever I
pick up whether it's physical tells or
Tendencies they like to you know that
they have
um and overall that's just gonna you
know that's gonna allow you to exploit
more right so like if I played with
somebody I've never played before I'm
probably just going to play optimally or
at least as optimal as I know how until
I start to you know gain some
information on that player so that I can
start to exploit them so what's the when
you say optimally what does optimally
mean versus so Game Theory optimal
versus
um exploitative yeah so that's like sort
of the big debate in poker we call it
for short GTO Game Theory optimal versus
exploitative play so GTO Game Theory
optimal is the idea that no it like I'm
gonna set up my play so that no matter
what you do you cannot exploit me so
essentially that's playing rock paper
scissors right and throwing 33 of each
every time right nothing you do can beat
that nothing you'll never be able to
beat that right exploitative play is
starting to notice that okay well you
know what this guy loves Rock he loves
playing Rock so I'm gonna go pay for a
little more so I'm going to take
advantage of them so I won't be through
but now all of a sudden when I do that
I'm no longer playing optimal because if
you knew that I was making that
adjustment now you can exploit me so
that's where the sort of what we call
the leveling War happens where people
Veer from you know the optimal line of
okay 33 each for each one you can't beat
that but you also can't win with that
either so you're always trying to be at
the at the cutting at the Leading Edge
of sub-optimal play You're yeah you're
going back and forth and listen at the
highest levels like online that these
guys play like they're trying to play
pretty close to like Game Theory optimal
because it's very difficult to do first
of all no human being will ever be able
to compute at the level that computers
can it's just never going to happen so
that's where like the human mind has to
come into play and say all right well
you know if I was playing against the
robot I would do X but I'm not I'm
playing against U so I have to adjust so
this game theory optimal only look at
the the betting and the hands in the
current
hand
or does it look at the history so if you
were to play optimally optimally would
you need to look at the history of the
individual players or just every hand is
taken afresh see that's why I love
playing exploitatively for the most part
because with GTO it anything that's
happened in the past has no bearing on
this situation it's simply based on what
is the optimal play in a vacuum in this
spot whereas exploitatively okay this
guy Bluffs way too much in these spots
so now I can make an adjustment and call
more you know based on past information
GTO doesn't take into account history at
all so like in a tournament how quickly
can you construct a player profile that
you've never played before depends on
the level of the buy-in really right so
the higher the buy-in generally speaking
you can assume if they're professionals
that they're going to have pretty
similar profiles because you know
everyone's playing you know if you're
playing this game well it looks similar
right at the lower levels you know
playing say in a 1 000 or 1500 buying or
less you know within a half an hour an
hour I have an idea of all right just by
seeing how some players played a few
hands that you know so here's the thing
with pokers like I can see one clue of
what he did and it tells me so much
about what he'll do in a vast number of
scenarios and you're saying at the high
level people don't give too many Clues I
mean well at the highest level is people
are so much more similar in terms of
their style of play they try to find
some kind of balance between the GTO and
now with all that we've seen on TV right
like people get to watch streams and
whatever so you get to watch all the top
players play so if you want to learn how
to play better guess what you do you
copy what they're doing essentially like
oh he's only raising this much I'm gonna
do the same they're betting this much
I'm gonna do the same so as a result
what you end up having is sort of uh
you know every everyone deciding like I
guess it's similar in chess with
openings right people figure out okay
this is an opening this is what you do
and that's it you know and then
everyone's similar to that and then you
have of course the outliers who try to
do things a little differently and
confuse people
it seems like the outliers like we
talked offline the Magnus in order to
win Magnus Carlsen has to play
sub-optimally in the openings to to take
it take his opponents out of the comfort
zone so he can he can play what he calls
Pure Chess as quickly as possible was
just both short and deep calculations
purely you're looking at the board
versus memorized openings and memorized
lines is it the case that
the best poker players are the ones that
are able to at the right time
play really sub-optimally or really
um an orthod or unorthodox yeah
specifically there's one guy who last
year sort of took the poker World by
storm and his name is Michael Adamo and
he was doing things like I said you know
most of the top pros play very similarly
with the way that they you know
construct ranges and their bet sizing
and all these kind of things he was
doing some crazy things that nobody else
was doing so he studied you know sort of
a different form of Poker and it it was
unorthodox and it you know it throws
people off because he's in his comfort
zone with these bet sizes and different
things whereas everyone else they're
they're not well studied in those spots
so as a result of him being unorthodox
he became like a monster and very
difficult to play against because he
really knew what he was doing with it in
tournament or cash games it was
tournaments yeah he was crushing
tournaments he was going against the
norm in terms of what is like you know
this is what you should do as a poker
player in the spot he wasn't doing that
he was doing what he thought was best
and he was doing things outside the norm
that again in a vacuum you could look at
that and you go that that's incorrect
that he should not do that is a
clear-cut mistake even you know the
solvers or the computers or Game Theory
would say this is wrong what he's doing
but it's not wrong if he's doing it in a
way that he's exploiting other players
tendencies so for example with him say
he's playing far too aggressively okay
that's not good unless your opponents
are playing way too passively so if your
opponents are playing passively the
answer is to be more aggressive with
them and that's I think one of the you
know biggest advantages he had was he
was willing to do that
so in a spot where somebody would make
it a thousand he's he's making it twenty
two thousand like what what is this this
makes no sense and then people kind of
know he has nothing but they they're too
afraid to uh call him on it well and
then sometimes what happens is this is
where the leveling comes in you're like
man this guy's crazy he's bluffing like
nuts then he bets to 22 000. and you say
ah I'm taking my stand I call and then
he shows you like you know four of a
kind or something like that yeah so he
gets people out of their comfort zone
and I really enjoy watching him play
he's probably my favorite player to
watch um today watching a guy like that
what aspect of his play have you been
able to incorporate into your own like
what do you learn from that because
you're constantly learning you're
constantly adjusting yeah well no and I
love it and as I said so I think a lot
of players sort of come to the same
conclusions about this is how you play
the spot but he doesn't and I love
watching and thinking in terms of like
why he's doing this and one specific
thing for example is
he's willing to really go for it so in a
spot where let's say he bets 2 000 he
knows he'll get you call 2000 right
but he wants it all he wants it all so
he says you know what I'll give up the
2000 that's guaranteed and I'll bet 50
000. and maybe if you call that now you
know so listen you lose the two thousand
seven eight times but if I get called
for the 50 just once you know I'm
profiting from that and it also sets the
uh you know the template for you to
really sort of be a player that people
are afraid to play against he he knocked
me out in a tournament very early on in
a huge event and he had he was so far
ahead he was one step ahead of my
thought process in hand and he did
something that makes no sense whatsoever
I looked it up on the computer huge
mistake if you will but not a mistake
because he was taking advantage of my
tendency do you remember the cars is it
an example I remember the whole thing
yeah I remember like this yesterday can
you take it like through an example hand
that sure really demonstrates it so I'll
explain the hand here so I uh I'm on the
button and I have Ace King which is a
very good hand and I raise and he calls
from the big blind
the Flop is nine seven five so I have
nothing really here he checks I check
behind the turn card's an ace
he checks I bet half the pot there were
six thousand there I bet three thousand
okay
now this is not a typical thing you see
people do but he raised me to 36 000.
massive raise bigger than the size of
the pot what was the Flop again so nine
seven five okay turn an ace what is he
representing exactly well he could have
a straight he could have three three of
a kind he could have you know aces up he
could have a whole bunch of hands so he
check raises me big to thirty six
thousand I call the bet so now there's
something like 75 000. the river is a
five so the board pairs okay
he thinks for a while and he bets all of
it which is three times the pot he bets
225 000. there's only 75 000 now right
and in theory he should never ever have
a hand that can do that right so he
confused me and I was like okay well
this guy's aggressive he likes to Bluff
and all this kind of stuff so I made the
call with the Ace King and he turned
over six eight so we had a straight
but here's the thing in theory that
River card is bad for him when I call
the turn I have a lot of the time three
of a kind two pair that just made a full
house so he was risking that and the
reason he did it was because he thought
I would perceive him to be bluffing a
lot so he just went for it and it worked
he was able to double up right away and
knock me out of the tournament like an
hour in do you think he thought you
might fold like what I think specific I
think it was it came down to this it's
as simple as this
he was cognizant of His Image as being a
wild aggressive lover right and he was
fully taking advantage of me
knowing that my tendency in these spots
is to be curious and I want to call and
I want to see it so he was fully taking
advantage of the fact that he thought I
would call too often because otherwise
his play makes no sense a small bet a
medium-sized bet those make sense but
the bet that he made
in theory is indefensible it's just like
clearly a mistake but that's why poker's
so fascinating because he makes this
play and it wasn't a mistake it was
Above the Rim that's what it was do you
think he put you on Ace something I
think exactly what he thought I had was
Ace King or something like that you know
oh that is so fun that is so fun that
the two players at such a high level
were able to mess with each other's mind
how how old is he he's young he's in his
20s I feel like that takes a lot of guts
to uh take risks like that well that's
what's great about him he certainly
never accused of not having the guts to
put it in and that's scary to play
against right the easiest opponent to
play against is one who's just
straightforward passive you know not
wild and crazy playing against him he's
going to put you in the blender as we
say
uh how can you control
what you're perceived as representing
what hand you're perceived of as
representing so if we're if the game of
modern poker is
others are representing certain hands
through the information they convey and
you're representing a certain hand range
sorry uh through your play how can you
control that or is that not
is that the wrong way to think about it
but it isn't but laughing in bed sizing
and all that kind of stuff essentially
controlling what others perceive as the
hand range you have
ultimately in terms of like controlling
people's perception of you you can't
fully control it but you can do things
to
um sway it right as I said earlier
showing Bluffs and things like that you
know leads your opponent to think maybe
you do this more often than you're
supposed to or whatever the case may be
but in terms of like controlling
um you know
what your opponent can think about your
hands in certain spots I don't really
think it equates that way it doesn't
really you know I think what people do
when they're playing a hand is they
think in terms of all right
what does my range look like here okay
so my range has value so you you look at
what you know the actual hand you have
secondarily so you say okay well I could
have this I could have this I actually
have this right but I could have all
these hands so my opponent if he's
thinking on a high level he knows I
could have all these hands and I have
this one so what do I do with this one
right in the bigger scope of things I
guess I'm trying to understand
if you're betting isn't a bet pre-flop
your bet doesn't that narrow the hand
ranges doesn't matter what you have
absolutely Narrows the the end
absolutely and if you bet big
combined with the perception of you at
the table doesn't that represent the
hand range uh-huh absolutely so like you
can with betting essentially control
what people estimate you to have sure so
that makes it easy so yeah so that's
that's true so for example one of the
most extreme examples is we have uh we
do there's like there's there's spots
where there's a bit that's considered
polarizing right so
let's say there's a thousand in the pot
and you bet ten thousand which is crazy
big right that's saying one of two
things I either have the absolute best
possible hand or absolutely nothing
because any of the hands in the middle I
wouldn't do that with
so I'm essentially telling you when I
bet that I'm like I either got it or you
know I got I don't have a mediocre hand
like just a pair of nines or a pair of
tens I have a royal flush or I have nine
high so with my bet sizing I can control
how my opponent is perceiving what my
range is going to be so for example you
know similarly if I bet small right well
that could be a lot of hands right that
can represent a big part of my range
the bigger the bet the more uh the
narrower the range apparently the more
polarized it is yeah yeah uh
how far could you get without looking at
your cards do you think how well could
you do
it depends on who I'm playing with right
so if I was playing in a tournament with
mediocre or weak players I think I could
probably do pretty well but even like
world class world class I don't think
you'd have much of a chance really I
mean the question is trying to get at
like how important is it the actual
hands you have versus the the the hands
you're representing right so that's the
question of essentially if you're not
looking at your hand pre-flop you're
basically giving up in a fundamental
Advantage right where you're you're
going to be playing way sub-optimally in
terms of your hand selection right
because you don't look at your hand you
might have a two and a three that's not
good but now you're playing it so you've
invested whatever two three thousand
bucks with absolute garbage and it's
very difficult to climb that hill right
so it's much better to actually look at
your cards and go okay I'll throw away
the two and three and I'll play the ace
King speaking of garbage uh you're
you've said that 10-7 is your favorite
poker hand to place that's still the
case and what aspect of it is that you
enjoy yeah so it's one of those viewer
discretion is advised like 10-7 I've
just noticed throughout my life you know
it's a tendency thing that I've been
lucky with it so so that's just sort of
but it's not like I'm gonna look at 10 7
and go oh wow you know I'm gonna call it
all in or anything like that I'll play
it in situations where it makes sense
but you know it's rare because it's not
a very good hand but is there
some aspect of belief in the magic of
this hand manifests quality of play
so here's the thing it's you know poker
players some have said it's unlucky to
be superstitious but we're all a little
bit superstitious a little bit you know
and so I don't know maybe it is a case
where when I have 10-7 I feel somehow
energetically that you know I'm more
likely to catch something which may
actually make me more apt to be
aggressive and confident in the hand but
but you really shouldn't let yourself do
that like you're not supposed to fall in
love with any specific hands yeah but
you know uncertainty
is ruthless
and so you know the the fact that it's
uh
um a game of Statistics it
it can be too painful for the human
psychology so maybe you have to hold on
to certain superstitions
because you know I mean there's there's
a cold absurdity to the fact that you
can play up you can play extremely well
and still lose
I mean the actually this year you've
played uh what it what is it 50 days of
World Series of Poker and it seems like
at least from the perspective of me
looking at it through the internet it
seems like there's a lot of hands that
you were like 70 30 80 20 uh all in
hands that you just did not we're not
going your way that can sort of break
you mentally absolutely
yeah one of the hardest things
especially about playing because cash
games and tournaments are different one
of the most difficult things about you
know being a tournament player is
resilience because more often than not
like so if there's a tournament with a
thousand people to win the tournament
you have to get all of the chips that
means there's one winner and 999 losers
so it's very rare that you actually like
win all the chips so you're essentially
at some point in every tournament you
play gonna deal with like really bad
luck and disappointment and sometimes
those streaks can have you question
yourself and be introspective about okay
so I think I'm 47 now I think I've
gotten better as time went on between
distinguishing okay am I losing right
now because of bad luck
or is it fundamentally decisions I'm
making are not very good right and
that's one of the hardest things for
anyone who plays poker to get to right
why am I losing am I losing because of
my opponents being better I'm not
playing well or am I losing just because
of luck and because there's so much
variance in poker a lot of players can
be confused with on both sides of the
coin one guy's winning and he thinks
he's great he's really not wait till the
cards break even as we say you know I
think there's a lot of parallels to life
as well you don't if you get screwed
over over and over it's hard to know if
you're doing something wrong
or if it's just bad luck yeah I think
they did a study I remember there was
like a study it was supposed to be
related to gambling but it was mice and
they put them in a little maze and
they'd go down these three tubes and
they go down this one tube and there'd
be cheese right and then they'd go down
again cheese three times in a row there
was cheese there right the next time
there was an electric shock there not
cheese
the rat went you know the mouse went to
to get zapped he got zapped okay came
back he kept going back to get zapped
until he died like he kept going because
he found cheese there he has one there
so he continued to go chase that win
despite it being you know now all of a
sudden not worthwhile till uh till they
died and essentially what they said was
that is essentially how they uh compared
it to like you know the gambling brain
and how people think about gambling
you're chasing the wins you learn too
much you sort of over generalized the
lessons learned from the times you've
won so yeah like beginner's luck can be
detrimental if you if you have some
early luck and you believe that this is
just the way it's supposed to be forever
you know it can put you in a delusional
state where you know you you feel like
I'm I'm just great but no you're not you
were just lucky in the beginning I
actually played poker once in Vegas it
was a uh it wasn't a tournament but it
was a kind of tournament-like style I
already forgot what it was but what I do
remember is I had four of a kind so the
last hand I've ever played
in poker was I got a four of a kind and
there was uh a couple of others with
really strong hands so everybody went
all in and I think you get some kind of
bonus for getting four of a kind bad
beat jackpot yeah so something like this
I apologize if I don't know the details
but I just remember winning a lot of
money and I walked away from the table I
said I'm not playing poker again this is
great because I started to feel like
this is your I started to think even
though I haven't really played poker at
all that I'm I'm good and I was a really
dangerous feeling and everybody was
really mad for walking away from the
table one of the other things is I think
it's interesting about poker 2 is good
is relative right yeah so you could be
the seventh best player in the whole
world like literally seven best player
but if you're playing with the other six
you're the sucker you are you are the
like the worst player in the game right
so like there's a lot of players
for example like the Dan bilzerians of
the world right he's not a top level
player like you know these guys you see
on TV but he probably makes more money
than they do because he plays with
people that are far below his skill
level so part of the part of the skill
of being a poker player is finding
situations where you're profitable you
know regardless of your skill level
another connection to life uh do you
think Dan balzarian is telling the truth
about having made what is it 50 100
million dollars just a huge amount of
money playing poker considering what I
know about the private games
and the types of players who play in
these private games and the stakes that
they play I absolutely believe you know
Dan has made I don't know how many
millions but I you know whether it's 50
whatever but it wouldn't surprise me
that if you play in these games within a
year or you know you find the right
businessman who has way too much Bitcoin
money you know and you know in one night
you take them for 20 million I
absolutely could see it I don't see any
reason why listen where he got his money
initially you know that's up to
interpretation from his father or
whatever but what but has he made a
bunch of money playing poker absolutely
no question do you feel like as somebody
who loves the game do you think there's
something almost ethically wrong in
playing people much worse than you so
yeah that's a good question because you
know part of the reason I played poker
and wanted to become professional was
like I want to be make my mother proud
right and I don't think she would be
proud of me taking like Grandma Betty's
like last five dollars you know and
again down the street you know sending
her broke and taking her pension check
so I play at the high stakes against
people who can afford it they know who I
am I'm not a hustler I'm not pretending
I'm bad at poker to squeeze in like I
was thinking about this just yesterday
because I played in a game that if I
played that sort of role where a lot of
guys do Pros they sort of play down
their skill level pretend they're just
one of the guys these guys can make 20
30 million dollars in a year
legitimately like I believe that like if
I did that if I said you know what I'm
gonna go down that path get into these
games in La you know and travel and do
all this kind of stuff I can make 20
million a year but it feels a little
greasy right I don't like to kiss
anyone's ass I don't like to ask it for
anyone for a favor or things like that
so but but yeah like
I I feel listen a rich guy who wants to
sit down with a million bucks and get
drunk and lose it I have no empathy for
that I'm like I don't have any moral
qualms with that so if uh Grandma Betty
is a billionaire uh okay give me send it
send it right you know absolutely why
not
um well let me ask you about a tough uh
period of your recent life you had a
rough like we mentioned the World Series
of Poker uh losing 1.1 million dollars
over 48 days what were you going through
mentally during that
so here's the thing you know I do like
you said I do a YouTube Vlog every day
so I kind of share my thoughts and
listen I can edit that thing and keep
out the bad stuff but I think it's more
authentic and genuine to show people the
actual struggles and the pain that I go
through you know without it and I'd say
the one thing I'm most proud of
throughout the entire thing is the
resilience because there are moments you
see me where I'm broken I'm just like I
can't take it I broke a selfie stick
this year like I was filming it because
you know I do for my Vlog I smash the
stick threw it in the corner right it's
just that was my like hit rock bottom
moment and then I put the camera on me
and I was like all right I let people
see it but mentally it was very
difficult because
there was a feeling of hopelessness
where
you can I was making good decisions like
I genuinely felt like I'm playing really
really well but every time my money went
in and my opponent's money went in and
say I was 60 70 80 for about a two week
stretch I lost every one of those and
you start to wonder you're like I can't
win if I never win you know in these
spots so it was difficult luckily I have
you know 20 odd years of experience on
how to deal with it and so as I said I
wake up the next day ready to go it's as
if nothing happened to a certain degree
obviously you know the more the more it
happens in the higher binds like the one
where I broke the selfie stick I lost
500 000 in that tournament right and it
was like the last card it was painful I
think you lost yeah
I think he lost I agree what led up to
the uh selfies the gate like what you
just lost your shit for a like 100
milliseconds
like it was very brief you're just like
what the world wasn't making any sense
like how Mike do I keep losing kind of
thing how did you why did you lose your
shit you should never really think like
this but part of me felt like I deserved
to win this yes right so part of me was
like listen I've lost so many in the
last two weeks all right let you know
the poker Gods be kind to me right now
let me win this and it looked good yeah
I was in a great situation on the Flop
great situation on the turn I'm about to
be a competitor I'm gonna be a contender
in this tournament to win a big prize
pool and turn the whole thing around
it's all there for the taking and then
boom the last card it just you know it
was a couple weeks of frustration in the
moment of filming that I just had you
know sort of a visceral reaction you
know and I smacked uh smack the selfie
stick and then like I it was I see a
corner it's safe I threw the selfie
stick on the ground and of course social
media blows up about how you know I I
was a violent act yeah you know I mean
it's like if you've never watched Sports
have you never seen a guy on the golf
course smack his club or throw their
helmet like you know there was the
there's a guy Justin bonimo who's a
poker player yeah and he's a super for
lack of a better work offended by
everything and he was equating my
throwing a stick on the ground to
violence against women domestic abuse
and the idea that like this makes women
feel unsafe to play poker and so that
was kind of a running joke for the last
two weeks where every time I sat at a
table the guys would be like oh I feel
unsafe
yeah can you take me through the hand do
you remember what the hand was like what
was the yeah so it was a you know the
player on the button raised David Peters
very aggressive player he went all in
from the Blind and I had a pair of
pocket tens so I went with my tens and
he had Queen ten of Spades so I was good
I have way the best hand and the Flop
was like King nine three one Spade turn
was like the eight of spades so now he
has a flush draw and the river was
another Spade so he caught Spade spade
and he made he made a flush well but
statistically you were winning the whole
time yeah I was winning up until the
last card what did he go all in on was
it a bluff he made what's considered
like a pretty standard play in modern
poker where you know a guy raised and he
was just trying to pick up you know what
was there and he ran into a hand in the
big blind and you know he got lucky so
what was the throughout the strategy of
preparation and strategy of play so
you're playing so many days is are you
trying to ignore the results and stick
to a particular strategy yes for the
most part you know what I'm trying to do
is like if I formulate a strategy for
the whole seven weeks because there's a
very there's a varying degree of buy-ins
too like you have small ones like 1500
then you got like 250 000 buy-in so I
map out
the seven weeks and right I'll give a
little bit of mental energy to the 1500
which means I'll be on my phone I'm not
gonna I don't care as much about this
one but the 250k fully engaged fully
focused you know up against obviously
the higher the buy-in you know super top
competition and you know as far as
strategy goes focusing on each day
playing the best I can not the result
like because if you focus on the result
you're you're focused in the wrong place
your focus should be on the decisions
you actually make right and if you're
making good decisions consistently you
have to continue to do that the
frustrating part is this with poker
unlike chess or other things making the
best possible decision doesn't mean you
win often you lose you don't chest
well as a Magnus Carlson has also talked
about that
there's some
non-deterministic thing about Chess too
given a limited uh cognitive capacity of
the human mind so he he says that the
world championship should have 20 30 40
50 games not not the few that they have
it's too low of a sample so in that
sense the high stakes uh poker
tournaments are very too low sample sure
yeah well when you think of the World
Series of Poker so you like as you said
I lost about one million right in one
tournament that was 500 000. yeah so
then you know like a few others here of
high buying tournaments so the sample or
the amount was
you know 40 50 total tournaments with
you know High variants and if you don't
run well or do well in the highest
buy-ins you know you're going to have a
losing summer
so you did a podcast on the mental game
a few years ago and that's just
something you really care about so what
aspects of the mental gaming poker is
most difficult to master I think the
most difficult thing for people is
self-awareness
right and resilience self-awareness to
know okay so you know again is it am I
am I not doing as well as I could be
because of luck or is there things that
I can learn and I always look to
mistakes as opportunities I really do
when I make a mistake in a poker hand
right call it a breakdown or whatever
that's where breakthroughs happen we're
like oh you know what I could have done
here I could have done this and that
would have been really good and I'm
going to do that going forward so I
think like with anything
um you know when you start out playing
golf like your goal is to just hit the
ball right then you try to hit it in the
air then you're trying to hit it
straight then you're trying to hit it on
the green then you're trying to hit it
closer to the green to the point where
the pros get where you know they're so
finite they're trying to hit it 63 yards
and spin it back three yards they're in
it's imperfect like they don't hit the
perfect shot because the perfect shot
for them is it goes in
but they try and make the mistakes
smaller and smaller and smaller poker is
the same
we all make mistakes consistently the
goal is to minimize especially the big
ones
what was the lowest point for you
psychologically
in poker in general actually maybe it
was this year maybe it was in general do
you remember there was times in your
life speaking of resilience that were
extremely difficult to you mentally
yeah so early on you know as basically
as you know as a teenager I was playing
Toronto and then in my early 20s I'm
like I'm going to Vegas right and I
thought I was the best 21 years old I'm
like check me out right show up with
three thousand dollars 24 hours later
you know money's gone and I remember I
remember the moment vividly it was at
the Binion's Horseshoe it was about
three in the morning I was playing with
seven other people you know I lost my
last chips I went to the bathroom washed
up got out they all left and it was like
a moment where I realized like okay in
Toronto I was the big fish but here they
were playing because of me I was the
sucker I remembered every one of their
faces and then I remember not having
enough money to get back to Budget
Suites where I was staying so
I walked I didn't you know I walked and
in that moment I was thinking about like
is this something that I'll be able to
do am I good enough you know what am I
going to do now I'm in Vegas I don't
know anybody and I have no money right
so that was certainly like what felt
li