Kind: captions
Language: en
of radical
um political movement of which there
will always be a lot in the country
has managed to do something that a
radical movement is not supposed to be
able to do in the U.S which is they've
managed to hijack institutions all
across the country and hijack medical
journals and universities and
you know the ACLU you know saying all
the you know activist organizations and
non-profits and many tech companies and
the way I view a liberal democracy is it
is that it is is a bunch of these
institutions that were that were trial
and error crafted over you know hundreds
of years
and they all rely on trust public trust
and there's certain kind of feeling of
unity that actually is critical to a
liberal democracy's functioning and with
I see this thing is as a parasite on
that that whose goal is and I'm not
saying each by the way each individual
in this is I don't think they're bad
people I think that it's it's the
ideology itself has the property of its
goal is to tear apart the pretty
delicate workings of the liberal
democracy and Shred the critical lines
of trust
the following is a conversation with Tim
Urban his second time in the podcast
he's the author and illustrator of the
amazing blog called wait but why and as
the author of a new book coming out
tomorrow called what's our problem a
self-help book for societies we talk a
lot about this book in this podcast but
you really do need to get it and
experience it for yourself it is a
Fearless insightful hilarious and I
think important book in this divisive
time that we live in the Kindle version
the audiobook and the web version should
be all available on day of publication
I should also mention that my face might
be a bit more beat up than usual I got
hit in the chin pretty good since I've
been getting back into uh training Jiu
Jitsu a sport I love very much after
recovering from an injury so if you see
marks on my face during these intros or
conversations you know that my life is
in a pretty good place
this is the Lex Friedman podcast to
support it please check out our sponsors
in the description and now dear friends
here's Tim Urban
you wrote an incredible book called
what's our problem a self-help book for
societies
in the beginning you uh present this
view of uh human history as a thousand
page book
where each page is 250 years
and it's a brilliant visualization
because almost nothing happens for most
of it so what blows your mind most about
that visualization we just sit back and
think about it it's a boring book so 950
Pages 95 of the book hunter-gatherer is
kind of doing their thing I'm sure
there's you know there's some there's
obviously some major cognitive
advancements along the way in language
and I'm sure you know the bow and arrow
comes around at some point you know so
so tiny things but it's like oh now a
400 Pages tell the next thing but then
you get to page 950 and things start
moving recorded history starts at 9.76
right right it's basically the bottom
row is when anything interesting happens
there's a bunch of Agriculture for a
while before we know anything about it
and then recorded history starts yeah 25
pages
of actual like recorded history so when
we think of prehistoric we're talking
about pages one through 975 of the book
uh and then history is Page you know 976
to 1000. if you were reading the book it
would be like epilogue a d you know the
last little 10 pages of the book and we
think of a d is super long right 2000
years the Roman Empire 2 000 years ago
like that's so long yeah human history
has been going on for over 2 000
centuries
like that is it's just it's hard to wrap
your head around
um and this is I mean even that's just
the end of a very long road like you
know uh the hundred thousand years
before that it's not like you know it's
not like that was that different so it's
just there's been People Like Us that
have emotions like us that have physical
Sensations like us
um
for for so so long and who who are they
all and what was their life like and
it's you know I think we have no idea
what it was like to be them the the
thing that's craziest about the people
of the far past is not just that they
had different lives they had different
fears they had different dangers and
different responsibilities and they
lived in tribes and everything but they
didn't know anything like we just take
it for granted that we're born on top of
this Tower of knowledge and from the
very beginning we
we know that the Earth is a ball
floating in space um and we know that
we're going to die one day and we know
that
um you know we evolved from animals and
all the those were all like incredible
you know epiphanies quite recently and
the people a long time ago they just had
no idea what was going on and like I'm
kind of jealous because I feel like it I
mean it might have been scary to not
know what's going on but it also I feel
like would be you'd have a sense of awe
and wonder all the time and and you
don't know what's going to happen next
and once you learn you're kind of like
oh that's like it's a little Grim but
they probably had the same capacity for
Consciousness to experience the world
to wander about the world maybe to
construct narratives about the world and
myths and so on
they just had less grounded systematic
effects to play with they still probably
felt the narratives the myths they
constructed as intensely as we do oh
yeah they also fell in love they also
had friends and they had falling outs
with friends they didn't shower much
though they did not smell nice uh maybe
they did
maybe beauty is in the eye of the
beholder yeah maybe it's all like
relative so how about how many people in
history have experienced a hot shower
like almost none that's like when we're
hot showers invented 100 years ago
like less
um so like like George Washington never
had a hot shower it's like it's just
kind of weird like he he took cold
showers all the time or like
um and again we just take this for
granted but that's like an unbelievable
life experience to have a rain a
controlled little booth where it rains
hot water on your head and then you get
out and it's not everywhere it's like
contained
um that was like you know they a lot of
people probably lived and died with
never experiencing hot water maybe they
had a way to heat water over a fire but
like then it's I don't know it's just
like there's a there's so many things
about our lives now that are completely
just total anomaly it makes me wonder
like what is the thing they've noticed
the most I mean the sewage system like
it doesn't smell in cities so
what does the sewer system do I mean it
gets rid of waste efficiently Etc we
don't have to confront it both with our
with any of our senses and that's
probably wasn't there I mean what else
plus all the medical stuff associated
with yeah I mean how about the disease
yeah how about the the Cockroaches and
the rats and the and the disease and the
the plagues and you know and and then
when they got so they they caught more
diseases but then when they caught the
disease they also didn't have treatment
for it so they often would die or they
would just be in a huge amount of pain
they also didn't know what the disease
was they didn't know about microbes that
was this new thing the idea that these
tiny little animals that are causing
these diseases so what did they think
you know in the the Bubonic plague you
know and the black death
um the 1300s people thought that it was
an act of God because you know God's
angry at us because why would you know
why would you not think that if you
didn't know what it was
um and so the crazy thing is that these
were the same primates so I do know
something about them I know in some
sense what it's like to be them because
I'm a human as well and to know that
this particular primate that I know what
it's like to be experienced such
different things it's and and like this
isn't our life is not the life that this
primate has experienced almost ever so
it's just uh it's a bit strange I don't
know I I have a sense that we would get
acclimated very quickly like if we threw
ourselves back a few thousand years ago
it would be very uncomfortable at first
but the whole hot shower thing you'll
get used to it after a year you would
not even like miss it because uh was
there's a few uh trying to remember
which book that talks about hiking that
Appalachian Trail
but you kind of miss those hot showers
but I have a sense like after a few
months after a few years well you use
your scale recalibrates yeah yeah I was
saying the other day to a friend that
whatever you used to you start to think
that oh that the people that have more
than me are more fortunate like it just
sounds incredible I would be so happy
but you know that's not true because you
experience what would happen is you
would you would you would get these new
things or you would you would get these
new opportunities and then you would get
used to it and then you would this the
hedonic treadmill you'd come back to
where you are and likewise though
because you think oh my God what if I
had to you know have this kind of job
that I never would want or I had this
kind of marriage that I never would want
you know what if you did you would
adjust and you get used to it and you
might not be that much less happy than
you are now so on the other side of the
you being okay going back you know you
we would survive if we had to go back
um you know we'd have to learn some
skills and but but we would buck up and
you know people have gone to war before
that were in the you know shopkeepers
the year before that they were in the
trenches the next year
but on the other hand if you brought
them here
you know I always think it'd be so fun
to just bring forget the hunter
gatherers bring a 1700s person here and
tour them around take them on an
airplane and show them your phone and
all the things it can do show them the
internet show them the grocery store
imagine taking them to A Whole Foods
likewise I think they would be
completely awestruck and on their knees
crying tears of joy and then they'd get
used to it and they'd be a complaining
about like they don't you don't have
these oranges in stock is like you know
and that's you know the grocery store is
a tough one to get used to like when I
when I first came to this country the uh
the abundance of bananas was the thing
that struck me the most or like
fruits in general but food in general
but banana somehow struck me the most
that you could just eat them as much as
you want that took a long time for me
probably took several years to really
like get get acclimated to that is that
why didn't you have bananas uh the
number of bananas fresh bananas I don't
that that wasn't available bread yes
bananas no
yeah it's like we don't even know what
to have like we don't even know the
proper levels of gratitude yeah you know
walking around the grocery store I don't
know to be like the bread's nice but the
bananas are like we're so lucky I don't
know I'm like oh I could have been the
other way I have no idea well it's
interesting then where we point our
gratitude
in the west in the United States
probably
do we point it away from materialist
possessions towards or do we just Aspire
that to do that towards other human
beings that we love because in the East
and the Soviet Union growing up poor is
having food is the gratitude
having transportation is gratitude
having warmth and shelters gratitude
and now but see within that the Deep
gratitude is for other human beings it's
the Penguins huddling together for
warmth in the cold I think it's a person
by person basis I mean I'm sure yes of
course in the west we will on average
feel gratitude towards different things
or maybe a different level of gratitude
maybe we feel less gratitude than some
than countries that
um you know obviously I think the
easiest that the person that's most
likely to feel gratitude is going to be
someone who's on who's whose life
happens to be one where they just move
up up throughout their life a lot of
people in the greatest Generation you
know people who were born in the 20s or
whatever and a lot of the Boomers too
the story is the greatest Generation
group dirt poor and they often ended up
middle class and the Boomers some of
them started off middle class and many
of them ended up quite wealthy and I
feel like that life trajectory
is naturally going to
Foster gratitude right
um because you're not going to take for
granted these things because you didn't
have them
um you know I didn't go out of the
country really in my childhood very much
um you know like you know we traveled
but it was to Virginia to see my
grandparents or Wisconsin to see other
relatives or you know maybe Florida
after going on to the beach and then I
started going out of the country like
crazy in my 20s because I I really you
know
okay my favorite thing and I feel like
because I if I had grown up always doing
that it would have been another thing
I'm like yeah that's just something I do
but I I still every time I go to a new
country I'm like oh my God this is so
cool and in another country this thing
I've only seen on the map I'm like I'm
there now and so I feel like it it it's
a lot of times it's a product of what
you didn't have and then you suddenly
had but I still think it's Case by case
in that there's a there's like a meter
in in everyone's had you know uh that I
think on on a
at a 10 you are you're experiencing just
immense gratitude right which is a
euphoric feeling it's a great feeling
um and it's
um it makes you happy it's it's to savor
what you have to look down at the
mountain of stuff you have that you're
standing on right to look to look down
at and say oh my God I'm so lucky and
I'm so grateful for this and this and
this and I you know obviously that's a
happy exercise now when you move the
meter down to six or seven maybe you
think that sometimes but you're you're
not always thinking that
um uh because you're sometimes looking
up at this cloud of things that you
don't have and the things that they have
but you don't or the things you wished
you had or you thought you were going to
have or whatever and that's the opposite
direction to look right and and that's
the either that's that's Envy that's
yearning
um or often it's it's if you think about
your past
um it's it's grievance right and so then
you go into a one and you have someone
who feels like a complete victim they
are just a victim of the Society of the
their their their their siblings and
their parents and their their loved one
um and they are
um they're wallowing in
everything that's happened wrong to me
everything I should have that I don't
everything that has gone wrong for me
and so that's a very unhealthy mentally
unhealthy place to be
um anyone can go there you know there's
an endless list of stuff you can you it
can be aggrieved about and an endless
list of stuff you can have gratitude for
and so it's it's in some ways it's a
choice and it's a habit and maybe it's
part of how we were raised our natural
demeanor but it's such a good ex you are
really good at this by the way your
Twitter is like go on well like uh like
you're you you you were constantly just
saying man I'm lucky or like I'm I'm so
grateful for this and that's it's it's a
good thing to do because you're
reminding yourself but you're also
reminding other people to think that way
it's like we are lucky
um you know and um and so anyway I think
that scale can go from one to ten and I
think it's hard to be a ten I think
you'd be very happy if you could be but
I think trying to be above a five and
looking down at the things you have
more often than you are looking up at
the things you don't or being you know
resentful about the things that people
have wronged you and well the
interesting thing I think was an open
question but I suspect that you can
control that knob for for the individual
like you yourself can choose like the
stoic philosophy you could choose where
you are as a matter of habit like you
said but you can also probably control
that in a scale of a family of a tribe
of us of a nation of a society I mean a
lot you can describe a lot of the things
that happens in Nazi Germany and
different other parts of History through
sort of societal envy and resentment
that builds up maybe certain narratives
pick up and then they infiltrate your
mind and then now your knob goes to from
the gratitude for everything it goes to
resentment and envy and all Germany
between the two World Wars you know like
like you said the Soviet
um
kind of mentality
um so yeah and then when you're soaking
in a culture so there's kind of two
factors right it's
um
it's it's what's going on in your own
head and then what's surrounding you and
what's surrounding you kind of has
concentric circles there's your
immediate
group of people because that group of
people if they're a certain way if they
feel a lot of gratitude and they talk
about it a lot that kind of insulates
you from the broader culture because you
know the the the people are gonna have
the most impact on you are the ones
closest
but often they're all the all the
concentric circles are saying the same
thing the people around you or they're
feeling the same way that the broader
Community which is feeling the same way
as the broader country
um and you know them I think this is why
I think American patriotism
you know nationalism you know can be
tribal can be very not not a good thing
patriotism
um I think is is a great thing because
really what is patriotism I mean it's if
you love your country you should love
your fellow countrymen you know Patriot
you know that's a Reagan quote it's like
patriotism is like I think a feeling of
like
um Unity
um and but it also comes along with an
implicit kind of concept of gratitude
because it's like we are so lucky to
live in you know people you know think
it's chauvinist to say we live in the
best country in the world right and you
know yes when Americans say that no one
likes it right but actually it's not a
bad thing to think it's a nice thing to
think it thinks it's a way of saying I'm
so grateful for all the great things
this country gives to me in this country
has done and and I think you know if you
heard the Philip you know a Filipino
person say you know what the Philippines
is the best country in the world no one
in America would say that's chauvinist
they'd say awesome right because when
you're coming from someone you know
who's not American it sounds totally
fine
um but I think I think you know national
pride is actually good now again that
can quickly translate into xenophobia
nationalism and so you know you have to
make sure it doesn't go off that Cliff
but yeah there's good ways to formulate
that like you talk about we'll talk
about like high wrong progressivism
higher on conservatism those are two
different ways of
of uh embodying patriotism so you could
talk about maybe loving the tradition
that this country stands for or you
could talk about loving the people the
uh that ultimately push progress and
those are
from an intellectual perspective a good
way to represent uh patriotism we've got
to zoom out because this this graphic is
epic a lot of images in your book are
just Epic on their own is brilliantly
done but this one has uh famous people
for each of the cards
foreign
like the best of yeah uh for you by the
way good for them to be the person yeah
that that it's not that I could have
chosen lots of people for each card but
I think most people would agree you know
that's a pretty fair choice for each
each page and to good for them to be
able you know you crushed it if you can
be the person for your whole 250 year
page so well I noticed you put Gandhi
didn't put Hitler I mean there's a lot
of people gonna argue with you about
that particular last page true yes
you're right I could have I could have
put a I actually I was thinking about
Darwin there too though
um yeah exactly you really could have
put anyone anything about putting
yourself for a second yeah I should have
I should have that would have been
awesome I'm sure that would have
endeared the readers to me from right
from the beginning of the first page of
the book a little bit of a Messianic
complex going on but yeah so the list of
people just you know so these are 250
year chunks the last one being from 1770
to 2020 And So It Goes Gandhi
Shakespeare Joan of Arc Genghis Khan
Charlemagne Muhammad Constantine Jesus
Cleopatra Aristotle
it's so interesting to think about this
very recent human history that's 11
pages so it would be 27.50 almost 3 000
years just that there's these figures
that stand out and then Define the
course of human history and it's like
the create the craziest thing to me is
that like Buddha was a dude he was a guy
with like
arms and legs and fingernails that he
may be bit and like he likes certain
foods and maybe he got like uh you know
he had like digestive issues sometimes
and like he got cuts and they stung and
like he was a guy
um and he had hopes and dreams and he
probably had a big ego for a while
before he gets Buddha totally overcame
that one but like
and it's like who knows you know you
know what the myth the mythical figure
who knows how similar he was but the
fact same with Jesus like this was a
good guy like to me it's he's a primate
yeah what uh impact he was a cell first
and then a baby yeah and he was a fetus
at some point he's a dumb baby trying to
learn how to walk yeah like having
tantrum yeah um because he's frustrated
because he's in the terrible twos Jesus
was in the terrible twos who didn't
never had a tantrum let's be honest the
myth the mother was like this this
Baby's great like
wow let's figure something out it just I
mean this I mean listen hearing learning
about Genghis Khan it's incredible to me
because it's just like this was some
um Mongolian
you know herder guy who was it taken as
a slave and he was like dirt poor you
know catching rats is it you know young
teen with you know to feed him and his
mom and his I think his brother
um and it was just like
the the the odds
on when he was born he was just one of
you know probably tens of thousands of
random teen boys living in Mongolia in
the 1200s the odds of that person any
one of them being a household name today
that we're talking about
it's just crazy like what had to happen
um and for that guy to for that poor
dirt poor herder to take over the world
I don't know so history just like
continually blows my mind like you know
and here's the reason you and I are
related probably yeah no I mean we're
it's it's also that's the other thing is
that some of these dudes by becoming
King by being having a better Army at
the right time you know William the
Conqueror whatever has is in the right
place at the right time with the right
Army you know and there's a weakness at
the right moment and he comes over and
he exploits it and ends up probably
having you know I don't know a thousand
children and those children are high up
people who might be have a ton
this species is different now because of
him like if that if I forget England's
different or you know European borders
look different like like we are like we
look different and because of a small
handful of of people um you know yeah
certain when I sometimes I think I'm
like oh you know this part of the world
I can recognize someone's Greek you know
someone's Persian someone's wherever
because you know they kind of have
certain facial features and I'm like it
may have happened I mean obviously it's
that's a population but it may be that
like someone 600 years ago that looked
like that really spread their seed and
that's why the ethnicity looks kind of
like that now sorry anyway
yeah yeah do you think individuals like
that can turn the direction of History
or is that an illusion that narrative
would tell ourselves
well it's both I mean so I said William
the Conqueror right or Hitler right
it's not that Hitler was born and
destined to be great at all right I
think in a lot of cases he's um
frustrated artist with a temper who's
turning over the table in his studio and
hitting his wife and being kind of a
dick uh and a total nobody right
um I think almost all the times you
could have put Hitler baby on Earth he's
uh he's a rando right you know and maybe
he's a you know maybe sometimes he
becomes a you know some kind of you know
he uses the speaking ability because
that ability was going to be there
either way but maybe he uses it for
something else
but
um but that said I don't also do I think
you but it's not that um oh World War II
was gonna happen either way right so
it's both it's that like these
circumstances were one way and this
person
came along at the right time and those
two made a match made in in this case
hell but it makes you wonder
yes it's a match in hell but are there
other people that could have taken this
place or do these people that stand out
they're the rare spark of uh
that genius whether to take us towards
evil towards good whether those figures
singularly Define the trajectory of
humanity you know what defines the
trajectory of humanity in the 21st
century for example might be the
influence of AI might be the influence
of nuclear war negative or positive
not in the case of a nuclear war but uh
the bioengineering
nanotech
virology
what else is there maybe the structure
of governments and so on maybe the
structure of universities I don't know
there could be singular figures that
stand up and lead the way for human
there will be but I wonder if the
society is the thing that manifests that
that person or that person really does
have a huge impact I think it's probably
a spectrum where there are some cases
when a circumstance was such that
something like what happened was gonna
happen if you pluck that person from the
earth I don't know whether the Mongols
is a good example or not but maybe it
could be that if you plucked Genghis
Khan as a baby
there was because of the specific way
Chinese civilization was at that time
and the specific
you know climate you know that was that
was causing a certain kind of pressure
on the Mongols and the way they they
still had their great archers and they
had their horses and they had a lot of
the same advantages so maybe it was like
it was waiting to happen right it was
going to happen either way and uh may
not have happened to sit to the extent
or whatever so maybe or you could go the
full other direction and say actually
this was probably not gonna happen
um and you know I think World War II is
an example right I kind of think World
War II really was kind of the the work
of it of course it relied on all these
other circumstances you had to have the
resentment in German you have had the
Great Depression but like
um I think if you take Hitler out I'm
pretty sure World War One World War II
doesn't happen
well then it seems like easier to answer
these questions when you look at history
even recent history but let's look at
now let's look at I'm sure we'll talk
about social media so who are the key
players in social media Mark Zuckerberg
what's the name of the Myspace Guy Tom
Tom yeah
um there's a meme going around where
like Myspace is like the perfect social
media because no algorithmic involvement
everybody's happy and positive but also
Tom did it right yeah at the time you're
like oh man Tom only made like a few
million dollars he sucks to not be Zuck
Tom might be living a nice life right
now where he doesn't have this in
nightmare that these other people have
yeah and he's always smiling his profile
picture
and then so there's like Larry Page so
with Google that's kind of intermingled
into that whole thing into the
development of the internet Jack Dorsey
now Elon
um who else I mean there's people
playing with the evolution of social
media and to me that seems to be
connected to the development of AI and
it seems like those singular figures
will Define the direction of AI
development and social media development
with social media seeming to have such a
huge impact on our collective
intelligence it does feel in one way
like
individuals have an especially big
impact right now in that a small number
of people are pulling some big levers
um and you know there can be a little
meeting of three people at Facebook and
they come out and they come in they come
out of that meeting and make a decision
that totally changes the world right on
the other hand you see a lot of a lot of
Conformity you see a lot of you know
they all pulled the plug on Trump the
same day right
so that suggests that there's some
bigger force that is also kind of
driving them in which case it's less
about the individuals I think you know
this is what you know what is leadership
right I mean to me leadership
is the ability to move things in a
direction that the cultural forces are
not already taking things right A lot of
times people seem like a leader because
they're just kind of hopping on the
cultural wave and they happen to be the
person who gets to the top of it now it
seems like they're but actually the the
wave was already going like real
leadership is when
um is is when someone actually changes
the wave changes the shape of the wave
like I think Elon with you know SpaceX
and and with Tesla like genuinely like
shaped a wave you know maybe you could
say that EVS were actually like they
were gonna happen anyway but it's
there's no it's not much evidence about
at least happening when it did uh you
know if we end up on Mars you know you
can you can say that Elon was a genuine
like leader there and so there are
examples now like Zuckerberg definitely
has done a lot of leadership along the
way
he's also
um potentially kind of like caught in a
a storm that is happening and you know
he's one of the figures in it so I don't
know and it's possible that he is a big
shaper if the metaverse becomes a
reality if in 30 years we're all living
in a virtual world to many people it
seems ridiculous now that that was a
poor investment we talked about getting
you know 10 you know I think it was
something like a billion people with um
a VR headset in their pocket and by you
know I think 10 years from now back in
2015 so we're hyper behind that but when
I he was talking about that and honestly
I I
this is something I've been wrong about
because I I went to like one of the
Facebook conferences and tried out all
the new Oculus stuff and I was like you
know pretty early talking to some of the
you know major players there because I
was going to write a big post about it
that then got swallowed by this book but
um but I would have been wrong in the
post because in what I would have said
was that this thing is when I tried it I
was like this is you know some of them
were suck some of them make you nauseous
and they're just not that you're you
know the headsets were big and you know
but I was like the times when this is
good it is I have this feeling I haven't
had it reminds me of the feeling I had
when I first was five and I went to a
friend's house and he had Nintendo and I
and he gave me the controller and I was
looking at the screen and I pressed a
button and Mario jumped and I said I
said
I can make this something on the screen
move and the same feeling I had the
first time someone showed me how to send
an email it was like really early and
he's like you can send this and I was
like it goes I can press enter on my
computer and something happens on your
computer those were obviously you know
when you have that feeling it often
means you're you're witnessing a
paradigm shift and I thought this is one
of those things
and I still kind of think it is but it's
kind of weird that it hasn't you know
like where's the VR Revolution like yeah
I'm surprised because I'm I'm with you
my first and still instinct is this
feels like it changes everything VR
feels like it changes everything but
it's not changing anything like and a
dumb part of my brain is genuinely
convinced that this is real but then the
smart part knows it's not but that's why
the dumb part was like we're not walking
off that Cliff the smart part's like
you're on your rug it's fine the dumb
part of my brain is like I'm not walking
off the cliff so it's like it's crazy I
feel like it's waiting
for like that revolutionary person who
comes in and says I'm going to create a
headset like honestly yeah Steve Jobs
iPhone of honestly a little bit of a
Carmack type guy which is why it was
really interesting for him to be
involved with with Facebook is basically
how do we create a simple dumb thing
that's a hundred bucks but actually
creates that experience and then there's
going to be some viral killer app on it
and that's going to be the Gateway into
a thing that's going to change
everything I mean I don't know what
exactly was the thing that changed
everything with the personal computer
does that understood why that maybe
Graphics what well was the use case I
mean exactly it wasn't it wasn't the the
not 84 Macintosh like a a moment when it
was like this is actually something that
normal people can and want to use
because it was less than five thousand
dollars I think it was and I just think
it had some like Steve Jobs user
friendliness already to it that other
ones hadn't had I think Windows 95 was a
really big deal yet they I remember like
because I I'm old enough to remember the
MS-DOS when I was like kind of
remembered the command and then suddenly
this concept of like a window you drag
something into or you double click an
icon which now seems like so obvious to
us was like revolutionary because it
made it it made it intuitive so you know
I don't yeah Windows 95 was good it was
crazy yeah I forget what the big leaps
was because those Windows 2000 it sucked
and then Windows XP was good I moved to
Mac around 2004 so I stopped I sold your
soul to the devil I see well us the
people still use uh Windows and Android
uh the device in the operating system of
the people not you elitist folk with
your books
and your uh what else and success okay
uh
you write more technology means better
good times but it also means better bad
times and the scary thing is if the good
and bad keep exponentially growing it
doesn't matter how great the good times
become if the bad gets to a certain
level of bad it's all over for us can
you elaborate on this why why is there
why does the bad have uh that property
that if it's all exponentially getting
more powerful then the bat is going to
win in the end was is my misinterpreting
that no so the first thing is I noticed
a trend
which was like
the centuries the good is getting better
every Century like the 20th century was
the best Century yet in terms of
prosperity in terms of GDP per capita in
terms of life expectancy in terms of
poverty and disease and every metric
that matters the 20th century was
incredible it also had the biggest Wars
in history the biggest genocide in
history the biggest existential threat
yet with nuclear weapons right you know
it the Depression was you know probably
as big an economic so it's this
interesting thing where the stakes are
getting higher in both directions and so
the question is like if you get enough
good does that protect you against the
bat right the the the the dream and I do
think this is possible too is the good
gets so good you know have you ever read
the culture series The Ian Banks books
not yet but I get criticized on a daily
basis but some of the mutual folks we
know for not having done so lots and I
feel like a lesser man for it yes I need
to say so that that that's how I got
onto it and I read six of the ten books
um and they're great but the thing I
love about them is like it just paints
one of these
futuristic societies where the good has
has gotten so good that the bad is no
longer even an issue like basically and
the way that this this works is the AI
you know the AIS
um
are benevolent and they control
everything and so like there's one
random anecdote where they're like you
know what happens if you murder someone
in because he's still you know there's
still people with rage and jealousy or
whatever so so someone murdered someone
um first of all that person's backed up
so it's like they help to get a new body
and it's it's annoying but it's like
it's not death and secondly that person
what are they gonna do put them in jail
no no they're just gonna send a slap
drone around which is this little like
tiny you know random drone that just
will float around next to them forever
and by the way kind of be their servants
like it's kind of fun to have a slap
drone but just making sure that they
never do anything and it's like I was
like oh man it could just be everyone
could be so safe and everything could be
so like you know you want a house you
know the as will build your house
there's endless space there's endless
resources so I do think that that could
be part of our future that's part of
what excites me is like there is like
today would seem like a utopian to
Thomas Jefferson right Thomas
Jefferson's world would seem like a
Utopia to a caveman
there is a future and by the way these
are happening faster these jumps right
so the thing that would seem like a
Utopia to us we could experience in our
own lifetimes right like it's especially
a female life extension it combines with
exponential progress
um I want to get there and I think if in
that part of what makes it Utopia is you
don't have to be as scared of the the
worst bad guy in the world trying to do
the worst damage because we have
protection
but that said
um I'm not sure how that happens like
it's it's
either easier said than done Nick
Bostrom uses the example of if nuclear
weapons could be manufactured by
microwaving sand for example
we'd probably be in the Stone Age right
now because
0.001 of people would love to destroy
all Humanity right some 16 year old with
huge mental health problems who right
now goes and shoots up a school would
say oh even better I'm going to blow up
a city and now suddenly there's copycats
right and so
that's like as our technology grows it's
going to be easier for the worst bad
guys
to do and tremendous damage and it's
easier to destroy than to build so it
takes a tiny tiny number of these people
with enough power to do bad so that to
me I'm like the stakes are going up
because the the what we have to lose is
this incredible Utopia but also like
dystopia is real it happens the Romans
ended up in a dystopia they've probably
earlier thought that was never possible
like
we should not get cocky and so to me
that that trend
is the exponential Tech is a
double-edged sword it's so exciting I'm
happy to be alive now overall because
I'm an optimist and I find it exciting
but it's really scary and we and and the
the the the the dumbest thing we can do
is not be scared dumbest thing we can do
is get cocky and think well my life is
always the last couple Generations
everything's been fine
stop that
what's Your Gut what percentage of
trajectories take us towards the as you
put unimaginably good future versus
unimaginably bad future is I think are
you as an optimist it's really hard to
know I mean it all like you know one of
the things we can do is look at history
and
on one hand there's a lot of stories
actually listening to a great podcast
right now called the fall of
civilizations
um and it's literally every episode is
like you know a little like two hour
Deep dive into some civilization some
are really famous like the Roman Empire
some are more obscure like the the Norse
in Greenland but
um but it's each one is so interesting
but what's
it's I mean there's a lot of
civilizations that had their Peak
there's always the peak right when
they're thriving and they're they're Max
size and and and they have their
waterways and they have their civilized
and it's representative and it's fair
and whatever I'm not not always but it's
it's uh the peak is a great you know if
I could go back in time you know it's
not that you don't you know the farther
you go back the worse it gets no no you
want to go back to a civilization during
I would go to the Roman Empire in the
year 100. it sounds great right you
don't want to go to the Roman Empire in
the year 400. we might be in the peak
right now here whatever honestly I I
think about like the 80s you know the
70s the 80s Here We Go the music no no
it's so much better no the 80s culture
is so annoying it's just like I'm I'm
when I re when I listen to these things
I'm thinking you know the 80s and 90s
America the 90s was popular if people
forget that now like Clinton was a
superstar around the world Michael
Jordan was exported internationally then
basketball was everywhere suddenly you
had like music the sports whatever it
was a little probably like the 50s you
know you're coming out of the World War
and the depression before it was like
this kind of like everyone was in a good
mood kind of time you know it's like a
finish a big project and it's Saturday
it was like I feel like the 50s was kind
of like everyone was having it you know
the the
um 20s I feel like everyone was in good
mood randomly
um then the the 30s everyone was in a
bad mood
um but the 90s I think we'll look back
on it as a time when everyone was in a
good mood and it was like you know again
of course at the time it doesn't feel
that way necessarily but I look at that
I'm like maybe that was kind of
America's Peak and like no maybe not but
like it hasn't been popular since really
worldwide um it's gone in and out
depending on the country but like it
hasn't reached that level of like
America's awesome around the world and
the political you know situations gotten
you know really ugly and you know maybe
it's social media maybe who knows but I
I wonder if it'll ever be a simple
and and positive as it was then like
maybe we are in the in the you know it
feels a little like maybe we're in the
beginning of the downfall or not because
because these things don't just go it's
not a perfect smooth Hill it goes up and
down and up and down so maybe we're
there's another big upcoming and it's
unclear whether public opinion which is
kind of what you're talking to is uh
correlated strongly with influence as
you could say that even though America's
been on a decline in terms of public
opinion the exporting of Technology
that America has still with all the talk
of China has still been leading the way
in terms of AI in terms of social media
in terms of just basically any software
related product like chips yeah chips so
hardware and software I mean America
leads the way you could argue that
Google and Microsoft and Facebook are no
longer American companies they're
International companies but they really
are still at the you know headquarters
in Silicon Valley broadly speaking so uh
in Tesla of course and just all of its
all the technological innovation still
seems to be happening in the in the
United States although culturally
and politically
it this is not it's not it's not good
well maybe that could shift at any
moment when all the technological
development can actually be
create some positive impact in the world
yeah that can shift it with the right
leadership and so on with the right
messaging
yeah I I think um
I I don't feel confident at all about
whether no no I don't mean that I don't
mean I don't feel confident in my
opinion that we may be on the downswing
or that we may be I truly don't know
it's like I think the people
foreign
stories that are really hard to see when
you're inside of them it's like it's
like being on a beach and and running
around you know a few miles this way
I've been trying to suss out the shape
of the coastline like it's just really
hard to see the big picture you know you
get caught up in the the the micro
Stories the little tiny you know ups and
downs that are part of some bigger Trend
and and also giant Paradigm shifts
happen quickly nowadays the internet you
know came out of nowhere and suddenly
was like
you know change everything so there
could be a changed everything thing on
the way it seems like there's a few
candidates for it and like but but I
mean it feels like the stakes are just
High it higher than it even was for the
Romans higher than it was for because
um that we we're more powerful as a
species we have god-like powers with
technology that other civilizations at
their Peak didn't have and so I I wonder
if those high stakes and Powers will
feel laughable to people that live
humans aliens cyborgs whatever lives 100
years from now that maybe maybe are a
little like this feeling of political
and technological turmoil is is nothing
well that's the big question you could
EAS so right now you know you know the
1890s was like a super politically
contentious decade in the U.S it was
like immense tribalism
um and the newspapers were all like
lying and telling you know you know
there was a lot of like what we would
associate with today's media the worst
of it
um and it was over gold or silver being
this I don't know it was very it's
something that I don't understand but
the point is it was a little bit of a
blip right it happened it felt it must
have felt like the end of days at the
time and then now we most people don't
even know about that uh versus you know
again the Roman Empire actually
collapsed and so the the question is
just like is yeah you know will in 50
years will this be like or like
McCarthyism oh they had like uh oh that
was like a crazy few years in America
and then it was fine
um or is this the beginning of something
really big and then that's what
well I wonder if we can predict uh what
the big thing is at the beginning it
feels like we're not we're just here
along for the ride and at the local
level and at every level of trying to do
our best how do we do our best what's
the that's the one thing I know for sure
is that we need to have our wits about
us and do our best and the way that we
can do that you know we have to be as
why is this possible Right to proceed
forward and wisdom
ever is an emergent property of
discourse so your proponent of wisdom
versus stupidity because you can make an
uh uh I can still man the case for
stupidity
do it I probably can't but there's some
I think wisdom and you talk about this
can come with a false confidence
arrogance I mean you talk about this in
the book that's too easy that's not
wisdom then if you're being arrogant
you're being unwise unwise yeah you know
I think I think wisdom is doing what
people a hundred years from now with the
hindsight that we don't have would do if
they could come back in time and they
knew everything it's like how do we
figure out how to have hindsight when we
actually are not what if stupidity is
the thing that people from 100 years
from now will see us wise
being naive and uh trusting everybody
maybe that well then you get lucky then
then you you know then maybe you get to
a good a good future by stumbling upon
it
um but ideally you you can get there
like I think a lot of we America the
great things about it are a product of
the wisdom of previous Americans you
know the Constitution was a pretty you
know pretty wise system to set up
there's not much stupid stumbling around
well there is I mean with the Huskies uh
the idiot Prince Michigan and uh
Brothers karmazov there's uh uh aliosha
you err on the side
of love
and almost like a naive trust in other
human beings and that turns out to be at
least in my perspective and long term
for the success of the species is
actually wisdom it's a compass we don't
know it's because you're in the fog in
the fog it's a compass yeah
love is a compass okay but but here's
the thing so I think we should have a
compass is nice but you know what else
is nice is a flashlight in the fog that
can help you can't see that far but you
can see oh you can see four feet ahead
instead of one foot and that to me is
discourse that is open vigorous like
discussion in a culture that Fosters
that is how the species is how the the
the the the American citizens as a unit
can be
as wise as possible can maybe see four
feet ahead instead of one foot ahead
that said uh Charles Bukowski said that
love is a fog that Fades with the first
light of reality so I don't know how
that works out but I feel like there's
intermixing of metaphors that works okay
uh you also write that quote as the
authors of the story of us which is this
thousand page book
we have no mentors no editors no one to
make sure it all turns out okay it's all
in our hands this scares me but it's
also what gives me hope if we can all
get just a little wiser together it may
be enough to nudge the story onto a
trajectory that points towards an
unimaginably good future
do you think we can possibly Define what
a good future looks like
I mean this is uh the problem with that
we ran into with Communism
of thinking of utopia
of having a
deep confidence about what a utopian
world looks like
well it's a deep confidence that was a
deep confidence about the instrumental
way to get there it was that you know I
think a lot of us can agree that if
everyone had everything they needed and
we didn't have disease or poverty and
people could live as long as they wanted
to and choose when to die
and there was no existential major
existential threat because we control I
think almost everyone can agree that
would be great that communism is a that
was they said this is the way to get
there and that is
that that's a different question you
know so the the unimaginably good future
I'm PR I'm picturing I think a lot of
people would picture and I think most
people would agree now not everyone
there's a lot of people out there who
would say humans are the scourge on the
earth and we should degrowth or
something but I think a lot of people
would agree that you know just again
take Thomas Jefferson bring him here he
would see it as utopia for obvious
reasons for the the medicine the the
food the transportation
um just how uh the quality of life and
the safety and all of that so
extrapolate t