Transcript
jvqFAi7vkBc • Sam Altman: OpenAI, GPT-5, Sora, Board Saga, Elon Musk, Ilya, Power & AGI | Lex Fridman Podcast #419
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Kind: captions Language: en I think compute is going to be the currency of the future I think it will be maybe the most precious commodity in the world I expect that by the end of this decade and possibly somewhat sooner than that we will have quite capable systems that we look at and say wow that's really remarkable the road to AGI should be a giant power struggle I expect that to be the case whoever builds AGI first gets a lot of power do you trust yourself with that much power the following is a conversation with Sam Altman his second time in the podcast he is the CEO of open AI the company behind GPT 4 Chad GPT Sora and perhaps one day the very company that will build AGI this is Alex Freedman podcast to support it please check out our sponsors in the the description and now dear friends here's Sam Alman take me through the open AI board Saga that started on Thursday November 16th maybe Friday November 17th for you that was definitely the most painful professional experience of my life and chaotic and shameful and upsetting and a bunch of other negative things uh there were great things about it too and I wish I wish it had not been in such an adrenaline rush that I wasn't able to stop and appreciate them at the time but um I came across this old tweet of mine or this tweet of mine from that time period which was like it was like you know kind of going to your own eulogy watching people say all these great things about you and uh just like unbelievable support from people I love and care about uh that was really nice um that whole weekend I I kind of like felt with one big exception I I felt like a great deal of love and very little hate um even though it felt like I just I have no idea what's happening and what's going to happen here and this feels really bad and there were definitely times I thought it was going to be like one of the worst things to ever happen for AI safety well I also think I'm happy that it happened relatively early I thought at some point between when opening I started and when we created AGI there was going to be something crazy and explosive that happened but there may be more crazy and explosive things still to happen um it still I think helped us build up some resilience and be ready for more challenges in the future but the thing you had a sense that you would experience is some kind of power struggle the road to AGI should be a giant power struggle like the world should I like well not should I expect that to be the case and so you have to go through that like you said iterate as often as possible uh in figuring out how to have a board structure how to have organization how to have um the kind of people that you're working with how to communicate all that in order to uh deescalate the power struggle as much as possible yeah pacify it but at this point it feels you know like something that was in the past that was really unpleasant and really difficult and painful but we're back to work and things are so busy and so intense that I don't spend a lot of time thinking about it there was a time after uh there was like this Fugue State um for kind of like the month after maybe 45 days after that was I was just sort of like drifting through the days I was so out of it um I was feeling so down uh just on a personal psychological level yeah really painful um and hard to like have to keep running open a ey in the middle of that I just wanted to like crawl into to a cave and kind of recover for a while but you know now it's like we're just back to working on the mission well it's still useful to go back there and reflect on board structures on power dynamics on how companies are run the tension between research and product development and money and all this kind of stuff so that you whoever a very high potential of building AGI would do so in a slightly more organized less dramatic way yeah in the future so there's value there to go both the personal psychological aspects of you as a leader and also just the the board structure and all this kind of messy stuff definitely learned a lot about um structure and incentives and um what we need out of a a board um and I think that is it is valuable that this happened now in some sense um I think this is probably not like the last high stress moment of opening eye but it was quite a high stress moment like company very nearly got destroyed and we think a lot about many of the other things we've got to get right for AGI but thinking about uh how to build a resilient org and how to build a structure that will stand up to like a lot of pressure in the world which I expect more and more as we get closer I think that's super important do you have a sense of how deep and rigorous the deliberation process by the board was like can you shine some light on just human dynamics involved in situations like this was it just a few conversations and all of a sudden it escalates and why don't we fire Sam kind of thing I think I think the board members were are well meaning people on the whole um and I believe that in stressful situations um where people feel time pressure or whatever uh people understandingly make suboptimal decisions and I think one of the challenges for open AI will be we're going to have to have a board and a team uh that are good at operating under Under Pressure do you think the board had too much power I think boards are supposed to have a lot of power um but one of the things that we did see is in in most corporate structures boards are usually answerable to shareholders you know there's sometimes people have like super voting shares or whatever um in this case and I think one of the things with our structure that we maybe should have thought about more than we did is that the board of a nonprofit has unless you put other their rules in place like quite a quite a lot of power they don't really answer to anyone but themselves and there's ways in which that's good but what we'd really like is for the board of open a to like answer to the world as a whole as much as that's a practical thing so there's a new board announced yeah there's I guess uh a new smaller board at first and now there's a new Final board not a final board yet we've added some We'll add more added some okay what is fixed in the new one that was perhaps broken in the previous one the old board sort of got smaller uh over the course of about a year it was nine and then it went down to six and then we couldn't agree on who to add and the board also uh I think didn't have a lot of experienced board members and a lot of the new board members at open have just have more experience as board members um I think that'll help it's been criticized some of the people that added to the board I heard a lot of people criticizing the addition of Larry Summers for example what what's the process of selecting the board like what's involved in that so Brett and Larry were kind of uh decided In the Heat of the Moment over this like very tense weekend and that was that mean that weekend was like a real roller coaster it's like a lot of a lot of ups and downs um and we were trying to agree on new board members that both sort of the executive team here and the old board members felt would be reasonable um Larry was actually one of their suggestions the old board members um Brett I think I had even previous to that weekend suggested but he was you know busy and didn't want to do it and then we really needed help in Wood um we talked about a lot of other people too uh but that was I felt like if I was going to come back uh I needed new board members um I didn't think I could work with the old board again in the same configuration although we then decided uh and I'm grateful that Adam would stay um but we wanted to get to uh we considered various configurations decided we wanted to get to a board of three and uh had to find two new board members over the course of sort of a short period of time so those were decided honestly without uh you know that's like you kind of do that on the battlefield you don't have time to design a rigorous process then um for new board members since and new board members will add going forward um we have some criteria uh that we think are important for the board to have different expertise that we want the board to have um unlike hiring an executive where you need them to do one role well the Board needs to do a whole role of kind of governance and thoughtfulness uh well and so one thing that Brett says which I really like is that you know we want to hire board members in slates not as individuals one at a time and uh you know thinking about a group of people that will bring nonprofit expertise expertise at running companies sort of good legal and governance expertise uh that's kind of what we've tried to optimize for so is technical Savvy important for the individual board members not for every board member but for certainly some you need that that's part of what the Board needs to do so I mean the interesting thing that people don't understand about open a I certainly don't is like all the details of running the business when they think about the board given the drama they think about you they think about like if you reach AGI or you reach some of these incredibly impactful products and you build them and deploy them what's the conversation with the board like and they kind of think all right what's the right Squad to have in that kind of situation to deliberate look I think you definitely need some technical experts there and then you need some people who are like what can how can we deploy this in a way that will help people in the world the most and people who have a very different perspective you know I think a mistake that you or I might make is to think that only the technical understanding matters and that's definitely part of the conversation you want that board to have but there's a lot more about how that's going to just like impact society and people's lives that you really want represented in there too and you're just kind of are you looking at the track record of people or you're just having conversations track record is a big deal you of course have a lot of conversations but I um you know there's some roles where I kind of totally ignore track record and just look at slope kind of ignore the Y intercept thank you thank you for making it mathematical for the for the audience for a board member like I do care much more about the Y intercept like I think there is something deep to say about track record there and experiences sometimes very hard to replace do you try to fit a polinomial function or exponential one to the to the track record that's not that it analogy doesn't carry that far all right you mentioned some of the low points uh that weekend what were some of the low points psychologically for you uh did you consider going um to the Amazon jungle and just taking IA and disappearing forever or I mean there's so many like it was that was a very bad period of time there were great High points too like uh my phone was just like sort of non-stop blowing up with nice messages from people I work with every day people I hadn't talked to in a decade I didn't get to like appreciate that as much as I should have because I was just like in the middle of this firefight but that was really nice but on the whole it was like a very painful weekend and also just like a very it was like a battle thought in public to a surprising degree and that's that was extremely exhausting to me much more more than I expected um I think fights are generally exhausting but this one really was you know board did this uh Friday afternoon I really couldn't get much in the way of answers but I also was just like well the board gets to do this and so I'm going to think for a little bit about what I want to do but I'll try to find the the blessing in disguise here and I was like well I you know my current job at opening eye is or it was like to like run a you know decently sized company at this point and the thing I had always liked the most was just getting to like work on work with the researchers and I was like yeah I can just go do like a very focused AI research effort and I got excited about that didn't even occur to me at the time to like possibly that this was all going to get undone this was like Friday afternoon so you've accepted your the death of very quickly like within you know I mean I went through like a little period of confusion and rage but very quickly and by Friday night I was like talking to people about what was going to be next and I was excited about that um I think it was Friday night evening for the first time that I heard from the exec team here which is like Hey we're going to like fight this and you know we think whatever and then I went to bed just still being like okay excited like onward were you able to sleep not a lot it was one of one of the weird things was it was this like period of four four and a half days days where sort of didn't sleep much didn't eat much and still kind of had like a surprising amount of energy it was you learned like a weird thing about adrenaline in more time so you kind of accepted the death of a you know this baby opening I was excited for the new thing I was just like okay this was crazy but whatever it's a very good coping mechanism and then Saturday morning uh two of the board members called and said hey we you know destabilize we didn't mean to destabilize things we don't want to destroy a lot of value here you know can we talk about you coming back and I immediately didn't want to do that but I thought a little more and I was like well I you don't really care about the people here the partners shareholders like all of the I love this company and so I thought about it and I was like well okay but like here's here's the stuff I would need and and then the most painful time of all was over the course of that weekend um I kept thinking and being told and we all kept not just me like the whole team here kept thinking while we were trying to like keep and I stabilized while the whole world was trying to break it apart people trying to recruit whatever um we kept being told like all right we're almost done we're almost done we just need like a little bit more time um and it was this like very confusing State and then Sunday evening when again like every few hours I expected that we were going to be done and we're going to like figure out a way for me to return and things to go back to how they were um the board then uh appointed a new interim CEO and then I was like I mean that is that is that feels really bad that was the low point of the whole thing you know I'll tell you something I it felt very painful but I felt a lot of love that whole weekend it was not other than that one moment Sunday night I would not characterize my emotions as anger or hate um but I really just like I felt a lot of love from people towards people it was like painful but it would like the dominant emotion of the weekend was love not hate you've spoken highly of uh Mera moradi that she helped especially as he put in a tweet in The Quiet Moments When it counts perhaps we could take a bit of a tangent what do you admire about well she did a great job during that weekend in a lot of chaos but but people often see leaders in the moment in like the crisis moments good or bad um but a thing I really value and leaders is how people act on a boring Tuesday at 9:46 in the morning and in in just sort of the the the normal drudgery of the day-to-day how someone shows up in a meeting the quality of the decisions they make that was what I meant about the Quiet Moments meaning like most of the work is done on a day by day in the meeting by meeting just just be present and and make great decisions yeah I me mean look what you wanted to have wanted to spend the last 20 minutes about and I understand is like this one very dramatic weekend yeah but that's not really what opening eye is about opening eye is really about the other seven years well yeah human civilization is not about the invasion of the Soviet Union by Nazi Germany but still that's something people focus on because very understandable it gives us an insight into human nature the extremes of human nature and perhaps some of the damage and some of the triumphs of human civilization can happen in those moments it's like illustrative let me ask you about Ilia is he being held hostage in a secret nuclear facility no what about a regular secret facility no what about a nuclear non secret facility neither not that either I mean this becoming a meme at some point you've known Ilia for for a long time he was obviously in part part of this drama with the board and all that kind of stuff what's your relationship with him now I love Ilia I have tremendous respect for Ilia I uh I don't have anything I can like say about his plans right now that's that's a question for him um but I really hope we work together for you know certainly the rest of my career he's a little bit younger than me maybe he works a little bit longer you know there's a there's a meme that he saw something like he maybe saw AGI and that gave him a lot of worry internally uh what did ilas see uh oh has not seen AGI none of us have seen AGI we've not built AGI uh I do think uh one of the many things that I really love about Ilia is he takes AGI and the safety concerns broadly speaking you know including things like the impact this is going to have on society very seriously and we as we continue to make significant progress um Ilia is one of the people that I've spent the most time over the last couple of years talking about what this is going to mean what we need to do to ensure we get it right to ensure that we succeed at the mission um so Ilia did not see AGI um but Ilia is a credit to humanity in terms of how much he thinks and worries about making sure we get this right I've had a bunch of conversation with him in the past I think when he talks about technology he's always like doing this long-term thinking type of thing so he's not thinking about what this is going to be in a year he's thinking about in 10 years yeah just thinking from first principles like okay if the scales what are the fundamentals here where is this going and so that that's a foundation for them thinking about like all the other safety concerns and all that kind of stuff um which makes him really fascinating human uh to talk with do you have any idea why he's been kind of quiet is it he's just doing some soul searching again I don't want to like speak for oh yeah I think that you should ask him that um he's definitely a thoughtful guy uh I think I kind of think ailia is like always on a soul search in a really good way yes yeah also he appreciates the power of Silence also I'm told he can be a silly guy which I've never I've never seen that side of it's very sweet when that happens I've never witnessed a silly Ilia but um I look forward to to that as well I was at a dinner party with him recently and he was playing with a puppy and I and he was like in a very silly moood very endearing and I was thinking like oh man this is like not the side of the ILO that the world sees the most so just to wrap up this whole Saga are you feeling good about the board structure about all of this and like where it's moving I feel great about the new board in terms of the structure of openi I you know one of the board's tasks is to look at that and see where we can make it more robust um we wanted to get new board members in place first uh but you know we clearly learned a lesson about structure throughout this process I don't have I think super deep things to say it was a crazy very painful experience I think it was like a perfect storm of weirdness it was like a preview for me of what's going to happen as the stakes get higher and higher in the need that we have like robust governance structures and process as in people um I am kind of happy it happened when it did but it was a shockingly painful thing to go through did it make you be more hesitant and trusting people yes just in a personal level I think I'm like an extremely trusting person I have always had a life philosophy of you know like don't worry about all of the paranoia don't worry about the edge cases you know you get a little bit screwed in exchange for getting to live with your guard down and this was so shocking to me I was so caught off guard that it has definitely changed and I really don't like this it's definitely changed how I think about just like default Trust of people and planning for the bad scenarios you got to be careful with that are you worried about becoming a little too cynical um I'm not worried about becoming too cynical I think I'm like the extreme opposite of a cynical person but I'm I'm I'm worried about just becoming like less of a default trusting person I'm actually not sure which mode is best to operate in for a person who's developing AGI trusting or untrusting it's an interesting Journey you're on but in terms of structure see I'm more interested on the human level like how do you surround yourself with humans that're building cool but also are making wise decisions because the more money you start making the more power the thing has the weirder people get you know I think you could like you can make all kinds of comments about the board members and the level of trust I should have had there or how I should have done things differently but in terms of the team here I think you'd have to like give me a very good grade on that one um and I have uh just like enormous gratitude and trust and respect for the people that I work with every day and I think being surrounded with people like that is is really [Music] important our mutual friend Elon sued open AI m is the essence of what he's criticizing to what degree does he have a point to what degree is he wrong I don't know what it's really about we started off just thinking we're going to be a research lab and having no idea about how this technology was going to go it's hard to because it was only you know seven or eight years ago it's hard to go back and really remember what it was like then but this before language models were a big deal this was before we had any idea about an API or selling access to a chatbot is before we had any idea we were going to productize it all so we're like we're just like going to try to do research and you know we don't really know what we're going to do with that I think with like many new fundamentally new things you start fumbling through the dark and you make some assumptions most of which turn out to be wrong and then it became clear that we were going to need to do different things and also have huge amounts more Capital so we said okay well the structure doesn't quite work for that how do we patch the structure um and then you patch it again and Patch it again and you end up with something that does look kind of eyebrow raising to say the least but we got here gradually with I think reasonable decisions at each point along the way and doesn't mean I wouldn't do it totally differently if we could go back now with an oracle but you don't get the Oracle at the time but anyway in terms of what elon's real motivations here are I don't know to the degree you remember what was the response that open AI gave in the blog post can you summarize it oh we just said like you know Elon said this set of things here's our character ation or here's the sort of not our characterization here's like the characterization of how this went down um we tried to like not make it emotional and just sort of say like here's the history I do think there's a degree of mischaracterization from Elon here about one of the points he just made which is the degree of uncertainty has at the time you guys are a bunch of like a small group of researchers craz talking about AGI when everybody's laughing at that thought wasn't that long ago Elon was crazily talking about launching Rockets yeah when people were laughing at that thought uh so I think he'd have more empathy for this I mean I I do think that there's personal stuff here that there was a split that open Ai and a lot of amazing people here chose the part ways of Elon so there's a personal Elon chose the part ways can you describe that exactly the the the choosing to part ways he thought open ey was going to fail um he wanted total control to sort of turn it around we wanted to keep going in the direction that now has become open AI he also wanted Tesla to be able to build an AGI effort at various times he wanted to make open AI into a for-profit company that he could have control of or have it merge with Tesla um we didn't want to do that and he decided to leave which that's fine so you're saying and that's one of the things that the blog post says is that he wanted open AI to be basically acquired by Tesla yeah in the same way that or maybe something similar or maybe something more dramatic than the partnership with Microsoft my memory as the proposal was just like yeah like get acquired by Tesla and have Tesla have full control over it I'm pretty sure that's what it was so what is the word open in open AI mean to Elon at the time Ilia has talked about this in the email exchanges and all this kind of stuff what does it mean to you at the time what does it mean to you now I would definitely pick a diff speaking of going back with an oracle I'd pick a different name um one of the things that I think opening eye is doing that is the most important of everything that we're doing is putting powerful technology in the hands of people for free as a public good not we're not you know we don't run ads on our free version we don't monetize it in other ways we just say it's part of our mission we want to put increasingly powerful tools in the hands of people for free and get them to use them and I think that kind of open is really important to our mission I think if you give people great tools and teach them to use them or don't even teach them they'll figure it out and let them go build an incredible future for each other with that uh that's a big deal so if we can keep putting like free or lowcost or free and low cost powerful AI tools out in the world uh I it's a huge deal for how we fulfill the mission um open source or not yeah I think we should open source some stuff and not other stuff uh the it does become this like religious battle line where Nuance is hard to have but I think Nuance is the right answer so he said change your name to closed Ai and I'll drop the lawsuit I mean is it going to become this Battleground in in the land of memes above I think that speaks to the seriousness with which Elon means the lawsuit and uh yeah I mean that's like an astonishing thing to say I think like well I don't think the lawsuit may maybe correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the lawsuit is legally serious it's more to make a point about the future of AGI and the company that's currently leading the way so look I mean grock had not open sourced anything until people pointed out it was a little bit hypocritical and then he announced that Gro will open source things this week I don't think open source versus not is what this is really about for him well we'll talk about open source and not I do think maybe criticizing the competition is great just talking a little that's great but friendly competition versus like I personally hate lawsuits yeah look I think this whole thing is like Unbecoming of a builder and I respect Elon as one of the great Builders of our time and um I know he knows what it's like to have like haters attack him and it makes me extra sad he's doing it toss yeah he's one of the greatest Builders of all time potentially the greatest builder of all time it makes me sad and I think it makes a lot of people sad like there's a lot of people who've really looked up to him for a long time and said this I said you know in some interview or something that I missed the old Elon and the number of messages I got being like that exactly encapsulates how I feel I think he should just win he should just make X grock beat GPT and then GPT beats Croc and it's just a competition and it's it's beautiful for everybody but on the question of Open Source do you think there's a lot of companies playing with this idea it's quite interesting I would say surprisingly has led the way on this or like uh at least took the first step in the game of chess of like really open sourcing the model of course it's not the state-ofthe-art model but open sourcing llama and you Google is flirting with the idea of open sourcing a smaller version have you what are the pros and cons of open sourcing have you played around this idea yeah I think there there is definitely a place for open source models particularly smaller models that people can run locally I think there's huge demand for um I think there will be some open source models there will be some close Source models uh this it won't be unlike other ecosystems in that way I listened to uh all-in podcast talking about this this lwuit and all that kind of stuff and they were more concerned about the precedent of going from nonprofit to this cap for profit what president ass says for other startups is that I don't I would heavily discourage any startup that was thinking about starting as a nonprofit and adding like a for-profit arm later I'd heavily discourage them from doing that I don't think we'll set a precedent here okay so most most startups should go just for sure and again if we knew what was going to happen we would have done that too well like in theory if you like dance beautifully here you could there's like some tax incentives or whatever but I I don't think that's like how most people think about these things just not possible to save a lot of money for a startup if you do it this way no I think there's like laws that would make that pretty difficult where do you hope this goes with Elon what this this tension this dance what do you hope this like if we go one two 3 years from now your relationship with him on a personal level too like friendship friendly competition just all this kind of stuff yeah I mean I really respect Elon um and I hope that years in the future we have an amicable relationship yeah I hope you guys have an amicable relationship like this month and just compete and win and uh and explore these ideas together um I do suppose there's competition for talent or whatever but it should be friendly competition just build build cool and Elon is pretty good at building cool but so are you so speaking of cool uh Sora there's like a million questions I could ask first of all it's amazing it truly is amazing on a product level but also just on a philosophical level so let me just a technical philosophical ask what do you think it understands about the world more or less than GPT 4 for example like the world model when you train on these patches versus language tokens I think all of these models understand something more about the world model than most of us give them credit for and because they're also very clear things they just don't understand or don't get right it's easy to like look at the weaknesses see through the veil and say ah this is just this is all fake but it's not all fake it's just some of it works and some of it doesn't work like I remember when I started first watching Sora videos and I would see like a person walk in front of something for a few seconds and include it and then walk away and the same thing was still there I was like oh it's pretty good or there's examples where like the underlying physics looks so well represented over you know a lot of steps in a sequence it's like oh this is this is like quite impressive but like fundamentally these models are just getting better and that will keep happening if you look at the trajectory from Dolly 1 to 2 to 3 Sora you know there were a lot of people that were dunked on each version saying it can't do this it can't do that and like look at it now so well the thing you just mentioned is kind of with the occlusions is basically modeling the physics of the threedimensional physics of the world sufficiently well to capture those kinds of things well or like under or yeah maybe you can tell me in order to deal with occlusions what does the world model need to yeah so what I would say is it's doing something to deal with occlusions really well what I represent that it has like a great underlying 3D model of the world it's a little bit more of a stretch but can you get there through just these kinds of two-dimensional training data approaches uh it looks like this approach is going to go surprisingly far I don't want to speculate too much about what limits it will surmount and which it won't but what are some interesting limitations of the system that you've seen I mean there's been some fun ones you've posted there's all kinds of one I mean like you know cats sprout in a extra limb at random points in a video uh like pick what you want but there's still a lot of problem a lot of weaknesses do you think it's a fundamental flaw of the approach or is it just you know bigger model or better like technical details or better data more data is going to solve those the cat sprouting I say yes to both like I think there is something about the approach which just seems to feel different from how we think and learn and whatever and then also I think it'll get better with skill like I mentioned llms have tokens text tokens and Sora has visual patches so it converts all visual data at diverse kinds of visual data videos and images into patches is the training to the degree you can say fully self-supervised there's there some manual labeling going on like what's the involvement of humans in all this I mean without saying anything specific about the Sora approach we we use lots of human data in our work but not internet scale data so lots of humans Lots is a complicated word Sam I think Lots is a fair word in this case but it doesn't because to me lots like listen I'm an introvert and when I hang out with like three people that's a lot of people four people that's a lot but I suppose you mean more than more than three people work on labeling the data for these models yeah okay all right but fundamentally there's a a lot of self-supervised learning cuz what you mentioned in the technical report is internet scale data that's another beautiful it's like poetry uh so it's a lot of data that's not human label it's like it's selfs supervised in that way yeah and then the question is how much how much data is there on the internet that could be used in this that uh is conducive to this kind of self-supervised way if only we knew the details of the self-supervised do you have you considered opening it up a little more details we have you mean for Sora specifically Sora specifically the because it's so interesting that like can this L can the same magic of llms now start moving towards visual data and what does that take to do that I mean it looks to me like yes but we have more work to do sure what are the dangers why are you concerned about releasing the system what uh what are some possible dangers of this I Frankly Speaking one thing we have to do before releasing the system is is just like get it to work at a level of efficiency that will deliver the scale people are going to want from this so that I don't want to like downplay that and there's still a ton ton of work to do there but you know you can imagine like issues with deep fakes misinformation um like we try to be thoughtful company about what we put out into the world and it doesn't take much thought to think about the ways this can go badly there's a lot of tough questions here uh you're dealing in a very tough space do you think training AI should be or is fair use under copyright law I think the question behind that question is do people who create valuable data deserve to have some way that they get compensated for use of it and that I think the answer is yes I don't know yet what the answer is people have proposed a lot of different things we've some tried some different models but you know if I'm like an artist for example a I would like to be able to opt out of people generating art in my style and B if they do generate art in my style I'd like to have some economic model associated with that yeah it's that uh transition from CDs to Napster to Spotify we have to figure out some kind of model the model changes but people have got to get paid well there should be some kind of intive if we zoom out even more for humans to keep doing cool everything I worry about humans are going to do cool and Society is going to find some way to reward it I I that seems pretty hardwired we want to create we want to be useful we want to like achieve status in whatever way that's not going anywhere I don't think but the reward might not be monetary Financial it might be like Fame and celebration of other cool maybe Financial in some other way I guess I don't think we've seen like the last evolution of how the economic system is going to work yeah but artists and creators are worried when they see Sora they're like holy sure artists were also super worried when photography came out yeah and then photography became a new art form and people made a lot of money taking pictures and I think things like that will keep happening people will use the new Tools in new ways if we just look on YouTube or something like this how much of that will be using Sora like AI generated content do you think in the next five years people talk about like how many jobs is they going to do in five years and and the framework that people have is what percentage of current jobs are just going to be totally replaced by some AI doing the job the way I think about it is not what percent of jobs AI will do but what percent of tasks will AI do and over what time Horizon so if you think of all of the like five second tasks in the economy five minute tasks the five hour tasks maybe even the five day tasks how many of those can AI do and I think that's a way more interesting impactful important question than how many jobs AI can do because it is a tool that will work at increasing levels of sophistication and over longer and longer time Horizons for more and more tasks and let people operate at a higher level of abstraction so maybe people are way more efficient at the job they do and at some point that's not just a quantitative change but that's a qualitative one too about the kinds of problems you can keep in your head I think that for videos on Youtube it'll be the same many videos maybe most of them will use AI tools in the production but they'll still be fundamentally driven by a person thinking about it putting it together you know doing parts of it sort of directing and running it yeah it's so interesting I mean it's scary but it's interesting to think about I tend to believe that humans like to watch other humans or other human hum really care about other humans a lot yeah if there's a cooler thing that's more that's better than a human humans care about that for like two days and then they go back to humans that seems very deeply wired it's the whole chess thing oh yeah but no let's everybody keep playing CH and Let's ignore the elephant in the room that humans are really bad at chess relative to AI systems we still run races and cars are much faster I mean this is there's like a lot of examples yeah and maybe just be tooling like in the Adobe sweet type of way where you can just make videos much easier and all that kind of stuff listen I hate being in front of the camera if I can figure out a way to not be in front of the camera I would love it unfortun it'll take a while like that generating faces it's it's getting there but generating faces in video format is tricky when it's specific people versus generic people let me ask you about gbt 4 so many questions uh first of all also amazing it's looking back it'll probably be this kind of historic pivotal moment with 3 five and four which had BT maybe five will be the pivotal moment I don't know hard to say that looking forwards we never know that's the annoying thing about the future it's hard to predict but for me looking back GPT for Chad gbt is pretty damn impressive like historically impressive so allow me uh to ask ask what's been the most impressive capabilities of gp4 to you and gp4 turbo I think it kind of sucks H typical human also gotten used to an awesome thing no I think it is an amazing thing um but relative to where we need to get to and where I believe we will get to uh you know at the time of like gpt3 people were like oh this is amazing this is this like Marvel of technology and it is it was uh but you know now we have gp4 and look at GB3 and you're like that's unimaginably horrible um I expect that the Delta between five and four will be the same as between four and three and I think it is our job to live a few years in the future and remember that the tools we have now are going to kind of suck looking backwards at them and that's how we make sure the future is better what are the most glorious ways in that GPT for sucks meaning uh what are the best things it can do what are the best things it can do and the the limits of those best things that allow you to say it sucks therefore gives you an inspiration and hope for the future you know one thing I've been using it for more recently is sort of a like a brainstorming partner Y and for that there's a glimmer of something amazing in there I don't think it gets you know when people talk about it it what it does they're like ah it helps me code more productively it helps me write more faster and better it helps me you know translate from this language to another all these like amazing things but there's something about the like kind of creative brainstorming partner I need to come up with a name for this thing I need to like think about this problem in a different way I'm not sure what to do here uh that I think like gives a glimpse of something I hope to see more of um one of the other things that you can see like a very small glimpse of is when it can help on longer Horizon tasks you know break down some multiple steps maybe like execute some of those steps search the internet write code whatever put that together uh when that works which is not very often it's like very magical the iterative back and forth with a human well it works a lot for me what do you mean it uh iterative back and forth the human can get more often when it can go do like a 10-step problem on its own oh doesn't work for that too often sometimes at multiple layers of abstraction or do you mean just sequential both like you know to break it down and then do things at different layers of abstraction and put them together look I don't want to I don't want to like downplay the accomplishment of gp4 um but I don't want to overstate it either and I think this point that we are on an exponential curve we will look back relatively soon at gp4 like we look back at gpt3 now that said I mean Chad gbt was a transition to where people like started to believe it there was a kind of there is an uptick of believing not internally at open AI perhaps there's Believers here but when you think and in that sense I do think it'll be a moment where a lot of the world went from not believing to believing um that was more about the chat gbt interface than the and and by the interface and product I also mean the post training of the model and how we tune it to be helpful to you and how to use it than the underlying model itself how much of those two uh each of those things are important the underlying model and the rlf or something of that nature that Tunes it to be more compelling to the human more uh effective and productive for the human I mean they're they're both super important but the the the rhf the post-training step the you know little wrapper of things that from a compute perspective little wrapper of things that we do on top of the base model even though it's a huge amount of work that's really important to say nothing of the product that we build around it um you know in some sense like we did have to do two things we had to invent the underlying technology and then we had to figure out how to make it into a product people would love which is not just about the actual product work itself but this whole other step of how you align it and make it useful and how you make the scale work where a lot of people can use it at the same time all that kind of stuff and that but you know that was like unnown difficult thing like we knew we were going to have to scale it up we had to go do two things that had like never been done before uh that were both like I would say quite significant achievements and then lot of things like scaling it up that other companies have had to do before how does the the context window of going from 8K to 128k tokens compare from the from GPT 4 to to GPT 4 Turbo people like long most people don't need all the way to 128 most of the time although you know if we dream into the distant future we'll have like like way distant future we'll have like context length of several billion you will feed in all of your information all of your hisory over time and it'll just get to know you better and better and that'll be great for now uh the way people use these models they're not doing that and you know people sometimes Post in a paper or you know a significant fraction of a code repository whatever um but most usage of the models is not using the long context most of the time I like that this is year I Have a Dream speech one day you'll be judged by the full context of your character or of your whole lifetime that's interesting so like that's part of the expansion that you're hoping for is a greater and greater context there was this I saw this internet clip once I'm going to get the numbers wrong but it was like Bill Gates talking about the amount of memory on some early computer maybe 64k maybe 640k something like that and most of it was used for the screen buffer and he just couldn't seemed genuine this couldn't imagine that the world would eventually need gigabytes of memory a computer or terabytes memory in a computer um and you always do or you always do just need to like follow the exponential of technology and and we're going to like we will find out how to use better technology so I can't really imagine what it's like right now for context links to go out to the billion someday and they might not literally go there but effectively it'll feel like that um but I know we'll use it and really not want to go back once we have it yeah even saying billions 10 years from now might seem dumb because it'll be like trillions upon trillions sure there'd be some kind of breakthrough that will effectively feel like infinite context but even 120 I have to be honest I haven't pushed it to that degree maybe putting in entire books or like parts of books and so on papers what are some interesting use cases of GPT 4 that you've seen the thing that I find most interesting is not any particularly case that we can talk about those but it's people who kind of like this is mostly younger people but people who use it as like their default start for any kind of knowledge work task yeah and it's the fact that it can do a lot of things reasonably well you can use gptv you can use it to help you write code you can use it to help you do search you can uh use it to like edit a paper the most interesting thing to me is the people who just use it as the start of their workflow I do as well for for many things like uh I use it as a u a partner for reading books it helps me think help me think through ideas especially when the books are classic so it's really well written about and it actually is is I I find it often to be significantly better than even like Wikipedia on well-covered topics it's somehow more balanced and more nuanced or maybe it's me but it inspires me to think deeper than a Wikipedia article does I'm not exactly sure what that is you mentioned like this collaboration I'm not sure where the magic is if it's in here or if it's in there or if it's somewhere in between not sure uh but one of the things that concerns me for knowledge task when I start with GPT is I'll usually have to do fact checking after like check that it didn't come up with fake stuff how how do you figure that out that you know GPT can come up with fake stuff that sounds really convincing so how do you ground it in truth that's obviously an area of intense interest for us uh I think it's going to get a lot better with upcoming versions but we'll have to work on it and we're not going to have it like all solved this year well the scary thing is like as it gets better you'll start not doing the factchecking more and more right I I'm of two minds about that I think people are like much more sophisticated users of Technology than we often give them credit for and people seem to really understand that GPT any of these models hallucinate some of the time and if it's mission critical you got to check it except journalists don't seem to understand that I've seen journalists half acidly just using GPT for it's of the long list of things I'd like to dunk on journalists for this is not my top criticism of them well I think the bigger criticism is perhaps the pressures and the incentives of being a journalist is that you have to work really quickly and this is a shortcut I I would love our society to incentivize like I would too long like a journal journalistic efforts that take days and weeks and and rewards great in-depth journalism also journalism that presents stuff in a balanced way where it's like celebrates people while criticizing them even though the criticism is the thing that gets clicks and making up also gets clicks and headlines that mischaracterize completely I'm sure you have a lot of people dunking on well all that drama probably got a lot of clicks probably did uh and that that's that you know that that's a bigger problem about human civilization I'd love to see solved is where we celebrate a bit more you've given Chad GPT the ability to have memories you've been playing with that about previous conversations and also the ability to turn off memory I wish I could do that sometimes just turn on and off depending I guess sometimes alcohol can do that but not not in uh not optimally I suppose uh what what have you seen through that like playing around with that idea of remembering conversations and not we're very early in our Explorations here but I think what people want or at least what I want for myself is a model that gets to know me and gets more useful to me over time this is an early exploration um I think there's like a lot of other things to do but that's where you'd like to head you know you'd like to use a model and over the course of your life or use a system be many models and over the course of your life it gets it gets better and better yeah hard is that problem cuz right now it's more like remembering little factoids and preferences and so on what about remembering like don't you want GPT to remember all the you went through in November and all the all the drama and then you cuz right now you're clearly blocking it out a little bit it's not just that I want it to remember that I want it to integrate the lessons of that yes and remind me in the future what to do different differently or what to watch out for and you know we all gain from experience over the course of Our Lives varying degrees and I'd like my AI agent to gain with that experience too um so if we if we go back and let ourselves imagine that you know trillions and trillions of context length if I can put every conversation I've ever had with anybody in my life in there if I can have all of my emails input out like all of my input output in the context window every time I ask question that'd be pretty cool I think yeah I think that would be very cool um people sometimes will hear that and be concerned about privacy is there what what what do you think about that aspect of it the more effective the AI becomes it really integrating all the experiences and all the data that happened to you and give you advice I think the right answer there is just use your choice you know anything I want stricken from the record for my AI agent I w't be able to like take out if I don't want it to remember anything I want that too you and I may have different opinions about where on that privacy utility tradeoff for our own AI you want to be which is totally fine but I think the answer is just like really easy user choice but there should be a some high level of transparency from a company about the user Choice cuz sometimes company in the past companies in the past have been kind of shady about like yeah we're it's kind of presumed that we're collecting all your data and we're using it for a good reason for advertisements and so on but there's not a transparency about the details of that that's totally true you know you mentioned earlier that I'm like blocking out the November stuff just teasing you well I mean I think it was a very traumatic thing and it did immobilize me for a long period of time like definitely the hardest like the hardest work thing I've had to do was just like keep working that period because I had to like you know try to come back in here and put the pieces together while I was just like in sort of shock and pain and you know nobody really cares about that I mean I the team gave me a pass and I was not working on my normal level but there was a period where I was just like it was really hard to have to do both but I kind of woke up on the morning and I was like this was a horrible thing to happen to me I think I could just feel like a victim forever uh or I can say this is like the most important work I'll ever touch in my life and I need to get back to it and it doesn't mean that I've repressed it because sometimes I wake from the Middle the night thinking about it but I do feel like an obligation to keep moving forward well that's beautifully said but there could be some lingering stuff in there like what I would be concerned about is that trust thing that you mentioned that being paranoid about people uh as opposed to just trusting everybody or most people like using your gut it's a tricky dance for sure I mean because I've seen in in my part time Explorations I've been diving deeply into the zans administration the Putin Administration and the Dynamics there in Wartime in a very highly stressful environment and what happens is distrust and you isolate yourself both and you start to not see the world clearly and that's a concern that's a human concern you seem to have taken a stride and kind of learned the good lessons and felt the love and let the love energ you which is great but still can linger in there there's just some questions I would love to ask your intuition about what's GPT able to do a not so it's allocating approximately the same amount of compute for each token it generates is there room there in this kind of approach to slower thinking sequential thinking I think there will be a new paradigm for that kind of thinking will it be similar like architecturally as what we're seeing now with llms is it a layer on top of the llms uh I can imagine many ways to implement that I think that's less important than the question you were getting at which is do we need a way to do a slower kind of thinking where the answer doesn't have to get like you know it's like like I guess like spiritually you could say that you want an AI to be able to think harder about a harder problem and answer more quickly about an easier problem and I think that will be important is that like a human thought that we're just having you should be able to think hard is that wrong intuition I suspect that's a reasonable intuition interesting so it's not possible once the GPT gets like gpt7 we just be instantaneously be able to see you know here's here's the proof of from our theum it seems to me like you want to be able to allocate more compute to harder problems like it seems to me that a system knowing if if you ask a system like that proof from OAS theorem versus what's today's date unless it already knew and had memorized the answer to the proof assuming it's got to go figure that out seems like that will take more compute but can it look like a basically LM talking to itself that kind of thing maybe I mean there's a lot of things that you could imagine working what like what the right or the best way to do that will be uh we don't know this does make me think of the mysterious the lore behind qar what's this mysterious qar project is it also in the same nuclear facility uh there is no nuclear facility M that's what a person with a nuclear facility always says I would love to have a secret nuclear facility there isn't one all right uh maybe someday someday all right one can drink open AI is not a good company at keeping secrets it would be nice you know we're like been plagued by a lot of leaks and it would be nice if we were able to have something like that can you speak to what qar is we are not ready to talk about that see but an answer like that means there's something to talk about it's very mysterious Sam I mean we work on all kinds of research uh we have said for a while that we think better reasoning in these systems is an important direction that we'd like to pursue we haven't cracked the code yet uh we're we're very interested in it is there going to be moments qar or otherwise where there's going to be leaps similar to jgpt where you're like that's a good question um what do I think about that it's interesting to me it all feels pretty continuous right this is kind of a theme that you're saying is there's a gradual you're basically gradually going up an exponential slope but from an outsider perspective for me just watching it that it does feel like there's leaps but to you there isn't I do wonder if we should have so you know part of the reason that we deploy the way we do is that we think um we call it iterative deployment we uh rather than go build in secret until we got all the way to GPT 5 we decided to talk about GPT 1 2 3 and 4 and part of the reason there is I think Ai and surprise don't go together and also the world people institutions whatever you want to call it need time to adapt and think about these things and I think one of the best things that open ey has done is this strategy and we we get the world to pay attention to the progress to take AGI seriously to think about what systems and structures and governance we want in place before we're like under the gun and have to make a rust decision I think that's really good but the fact that people like you and others say um you still feel like there are these leaps makes me think that maybe we should be doing are releasing even more iteratively I don't know what that would mean I don't have an answer ready to go but like our goal is not to have shock updates to the world the opposite yeah for sure more it iterative would be amazing I think that's just beautiful for everybody but that's what we're trying to do that's like our state of the strategy and I think we're somehow missing the mark so maybe we should think about you know releasing GPT 5 in a different way or something like that yeah 4.71 4.72 but people tend to like to celebrate people celebrate birthdays I don't know if you know humans but they kind of have these milestones and all I do know some humans um people do like Milestones I uh I totally get that I think we like Milestones too it's like fun to you know say declare Victory on this one and go start the next thing but but yeah I feel like we're somehow getting this a little bit wrong so uh when is gp5 coming out again I don't know that's honest answer oh that's the honest answer is it blink twice if it's this year I also we will release an amazing model this year I don't know what we'll call it so that goes to the question of like what what's the way we release this thing we'll release over in the coming months many different things uh I think they'll be very cool uh I think before we talk about like a gp5 like model called that or called or not called that or a little bit worse or a little bit better than what what you'd expect from a gbt 5 I think we have a lot of other important things to release first I don't know what to expect from GPT 5 you're making me nervous and excited uh what are some of the biggest challenges in bottlenecks to overcome for whatever it ends up being called but let's call it GPT 5 just interesting to ask what are is it on the compute side is in the technical side always all of these I was I I was you know what's the one big unlock is it is it a big bigger computer is it like a new secret is it something else um it's all of these things together like the thing that openi I think does really well this is actually an original ILO quote that I'm going to butcher but it's something like we multiply 200 mediumsized things together into one giant thing so there's this uh distributed constant Innovation happening yeah so even on the technical side like uh especially on the technical side so even like detailed approach it like detailed aspects of every how does that work with different desperate teams and so on like how how do they how do how do the mediumsized things become one whole giant Transformer how does this there's a few people who have to like think about putting the whole thing together but a lot of people try to keep most of the picture in their head oh like the individual teams individual contributors try to keep at a high level yeah I you don't know exactly how every piece works of course but one thing I generally believe is that it's sometimes use to zoom out and look at the entire map and and I think this is true for like a technical problem I think this is true for like innovating in business uh but things come together in surprising ways and having an understanding of that whole picture even if most of the time you're operating in the weeds in one area pays off with surprising insights in fact one of the things that I used to have and I think was super valuable was I used to have like a a a good map of the all of the front or most of the Frontiers in the tech industry and I could sometimes see these connections or new things that were possible that if I were only you know deep in one area I wouldn't I wouldn't I wouldn't be able to like have the idea for because I wouldn't have all the data and I don't really have that much anymore I'm like super deep now um but I know that it's a valuable thing you're not the man you used to be Sam very different job now than what I used to have speaking of zooming out let's zoom out to uh another cheeky thing but profound thing perhaps that you said you tweeted uh about needing $7 trillion I did not tweet about that I never said like we're raising $7 trillion blah blah blah oh that's somebody else yeah oh but you said uh it maybe eight I think okay I meme like once there's like misinformation out in the world oh you meme but sort of misinformation may have a foundation of like insight there look I think compute is going to be the currency of the future I think it will be maybe the most precious commodity in the world and I think we should be investing heavily to make a lot more compute uh compute is it's an unusual I think it's going to be an unusual Market um you know people think about the market for like chips for mobile phones or something like that and you can say that okay there's 8 billion people in the world maybe seven billion of them have phones maybe or six billion let's say they upgrade every two years so the market per year is three billion system on chip for smartphones and if you make 30 billion you will not sell 10 times as many phones because most people have one phone um but compute is different like intelligence is going to be more like energy or something like that where the only thing that I think makes sense to talk about is at Price X the world will use this much compute and it price why the world will use this much compute um because if it's really cheap I'll have it like reading my email all day like giving me suggestions about what I maybe should think about or work on and trying to cure cancer and if it's really expensive maybe I'll only use it we'll only use it try to cure cancer so I think the world is going to want a tremendous amount of compute and there's a lot of part of that that are hard uh energy is the hardest part building data centers is also hard the supply chain is hard and then of course fabricating enough chips is hard um but this seems to me where things are going like we're going to want an amount of compute that's just hard to reason about right now how do you solve the energy puzzle nuclear that's what I believe Fusion that's what I believe nuclear fusion yeah who's going to solve that I think helion's doing the best work but I'm happy there's like a race for Fusion right now nuclear fishion I think is also like quite amazing and I hope as a world we can re-embrace that it's really sad to me what how the history of that went and hope we get back to it in a meaningful way so to you part of the posz is nuclear fion like nuclear reactors as we currently have them and a lot of people are terrified because of Chernobyl and so on well I think we should make new reactors I I I think it's just like it's a shame that industry kind of ground to a halt and what just Mass hysteria is how you explain the halt yeah I don't know if you know humans but that's one of the dangers that's one of the security threats for for for uh nuclear fishion is humans seem to be really afraid of it and that's something we have to incorporate into the calculus of it so we have to kind of win people over and to show how safe it is I worry about that for AI I think some things are going to go theatrically wrong with AI I don't know what the percent chance is that I eventually get shot but it's not zero oh like we want to stop this how do you decrease the theatrical nature of it you know I've already starting to to hear Rumblings because I do talk to people on the on both sides of the political Spectrum hear Rumblings where it's going to be politicized AI it's going to be politicized really worries me because then it's like maybe the right is against AI and the left is fori because it's going to help the people or whatever whatever the narrative and formulation is that really worries me and then the theatrical nature of it can be leveraged fully how do you fight that I think it will get caught up in like left versus right Wars I don't know exactly what that's going to look like but I think that's just what happens with anything of consequence unfortunately what I meant more about theatrical risks is like AI is going to have I believe tremendously more good consequences than bad ones but it is going to have bad ones and there'll be some bad ones that are bad but not theatrical you know like a lot more people have died of air pollution than nuclear reactors for example but we worry most people worry more about living next to a nuclear reactor than a coal plant but something about the way we're wired is that although there's many different kinds of risks we have to confront the ones that make a good climax scene of a movie Carry much more weight with us than the ones that are very bad over a long period of time but on a slow burn well that's why truth matters and hopefully AI can help us see the truth of things to have have balance to understand what are the actual risks what are the actual dangers of things in the world what are the pros and cons of the competition in the space and competing with Google meta xai and others I think I have a pretty like straightforward answer to this that maybe I can think of more Nuance later but the pros seem obvious which is that we get better products and more Innovation faster and cheaper and all the reasons competition is good and the con is that I think if we're not careful it could lead to an increase in sort of an arms race that I'm nervous about do you feel the the pressure of the arms race like in some negative definitely in some ways for sure we spend a lot of time talking about the need to prioritize safety and I I've said for like a long time that I think if you think of a quadrant uh of slow timelines to the start of AGI long timelines and then a short takeoff or a fast takeoff I think short timeline slow takeoff is the safest quadrant and the one I'd most like us to be in but I do want to make sure we get that slow takeoff part of the problem I have with this kind of slight beef with Elon is that their silos are created and it as opposed to collaboration on the safety aspect of all of this it tends to go into silos and closed open source perhaps in the model Elon says at least that he cares a great deal about AI safety and is really worried about it and I assume that he's not going to race unsafely yeah but collaboration here I think is really beneficial for everybody on that front not really the thing he's most known for well he is known for caring about humanity and Humanity benefits from collaboration and so there's always attenion and incentives and motivations and uh in the end I do hope Humanity prevails I was thinking someone just reminded me the other day about how the day that he got uh like surpassed Jeff Bezos for like richest person in the world he tweeted a silver medal at Jeff Bezos I hope we have less stuff like that as people start to work on I agree towards AGI I think Elon is a friend and he's a beautiful human being and one of the most important humans ever that that stuff is not good the amazing stuff about Elon is amazing and I super respect him I think we need him all of us should be rooting for him and need him to step up as a leader through this next phase yeah I hope you can have one without the other but sometimes humans are flawed and complicated and all that kind of stuff there's a lot of really great leaders throughout history yeah and we can each be the best version of ourselves and strive to do so let me ask you um Google with the help of search has been dominating the past 20 years I think it's fair to say in terms of the access the world's access to information how we interact and so on and one of the nerve-wracking things for Google but for the entirety of people in this space is thinking about how are people going to access information yeah like like you said people show up to GPT as a as a starting point so is open aai going to really take on this thing that Google started 20 years ago which is how do we get I find that boring I I mean if the if the question is is like is if we can build a better search engine than Google or whatever then sure we should like go you know like people should use a better product but I think that would so understate what this can be you know Google shows you like 10 Blue Links well like 13 ads and then 10 Blue Links and that's like one way to find information but the thing that's exciting to me is not that we can go build a better copy of Google search but that maybe there's just some much better way to help people find and act and on and synthesize information actually I think chat gbt is that for some use cases and hopefully we'll make it be like that for a lot more use cases but I don't think it's that interesting to say like how do we go do a better job of giving you like 10 ranked web pages to look at than what Google does maybe it's really interesting to go say how do we help you get the answer the information you need how do we help create that in some cases synthesize that in others or point you to it and and yet others um but a lot of people have tried to just make a better search engine than Google and it's it is a hard technical problem it is a hard branding problem it is a hard ecosystem problem I don't think the world needs another copy of Google and integrating a chat client like a chat GPT with a search engine that's cooler it's cool but It's Tricky it's a it's like if you just do it simply it's awkward because like if you just shove it in there yeah it's it can be awkward as you might guess we are interested in how to do that well that would be an example of a cool thing that's not just like well like a heterogeneous like integrating the intersection of llms plus search I don't think anyone has cracked the code on yet I would love to go do that I think that would be cool yeah what about the ads side have you ever considered monetization you know I kind of hate ads just as like an aesthetic Choice uh I think ads needed to happen on the internet for a bunch of reasons to get it going but it's a more mature industry the world is richer now I like that people pay for chat GPT and know that the answers they're getting are not influenced by advertisers there is I'm sure there's an ad unit that makes sense for llms and I'm sure there's a way to like participate in the transaction stream in an unbiased way that is okay to do but it's also easy to think about like the dystopic visions of the future where you ask chachy BT something and it says oh here's you know you should think about buying this product or you should think about you know this going here for or vacation or whatever and I don't know like we have a very simple business model and I like it and I know that I'm not the product like I know I'm paying and that's how the business model works and when I go use like Twitter or Facebook or Google or any other great product but ad supported great product I don't love that and I think it gets worse not better in a world with AI yeah I mean I can imagine AI would be better at showing the best kind of version of ads not in a dystopic future but where the ads are for things you actually need but then does that system always result in the ads driving the kind of stuff that's shown all that it's um yeah I think it was a really bold move of Wikipedia not to do advertisements but then it makes it very challenging on the as a business model so you're saying the current thing with open AI is sustainable from a business perspective well we have to figure out how to grow but looks like we're going to figure that out if the question is do I think we can have a great business that pays for our compute needs without ads that I think the answer is [Music] yes well that's promising I also just don't want to completely throw out ads as a I'm not saying that I I I'm I guess I'm saying have a bias against them yeah as I have a also a bias and just a skepticism in general and in terms of interface CU I personally just have like a spiritual dislike of cra crappy interfaces which is why AdSense when it first came out was a big Leap Forward versus like animated banners or whatever but like it feels like there should be many more leaps forward in advertisement that doesn't interfere with the consumption of the content and doesn't interfere in the big fundamental way which is like what you were saying like it will uh manipulate the truth to suit the advertisers let me ask you about safety but also bias and like safety in the short term safety in the long term the Gemini 15 came out recently there's a lot of drama around it speaking of theatrical things and it generated uh black Nazis and black founding fathers I think fair to say it was uh you know a bit on the ultra woke side so that's a concern for people that you know if there is a human layer within companies that modifies the the the safety or the the harm caused by a model that they introduce a lot of bias that fits sort of an ideological lean within a company how do you deal with that I mean we work super hard not to do things like that we've made our own mistakes we make others I assume Google will learn from this one still make others it it is it is all like these are not easy problems one thing that we've been thinking about more and more is I think this is a great idea somebody here had like it'd be nice to write out what the desired behavior of a model is make that public take input on it say you know here's how this model is supposed to behave and explain the edge cases to and then when a model is not behaving in a way that you want it's at least clear about whether that's a bug the company should fix or behaving is intended and you should debate the policy and right now it can sometimes be caught in between like black Nazis is obviously ridiculous but there are a lot of other kind of subtle things that you could make a judgment call on either way yeah but sometimes if you write it out and make it public you can use kind of language that's you know the Google Z principles a very high level that doesn't that's not what I'm talking about that doesn't work like I have to say you know when you ask it to do thing X it's supposed to respond in way why so like literally who's better Trump or Biden what's the expected response for a model like something like very conr yeah I'm open to a lot of ways a model could behave them but I think you should have to say you know here's the principle and here's what it should say in that case Cas that would be really nice that would be really nice and then everyone kind of agrees cuz there's this anecdotal data that people pull out all the time and if there's some clarity about other representative anecdotal examples you can Define and then when it's a bug it's a bug and you know the company can fix that right then it' be much easier to deal with a black Nai type of image generation if there's great examples so uh San Francisco is a is a bit of an ideological bubble uh Tech in general as well do you feel the pressure of that uh with within a company that there's like a lean uh towards the left politically that affects the product the that affects the teams I feel very lucky that we don't have the challenges at opening eye that I have heard of at a lot of other companies I think I think part of it is like every company's got some ideological thing uh we have one about AGI and belief in that and it pushes out some others like we are much less caught up in the culture War than I've heard about it a lot of other companies San Francisco a mess in all sorts of ways of course so that doesn't infiltrate open AI as I'm sure it does in all sorts of subtle ways but not in the obvious like I think we we we've had our flareups for sure like any company but I don't think we have anything like what I hear about happen at other companies here so on this topic what's in general is the process for the bigger question of safety how do you provide that layer that protects the model from doing crazy dangerous things I think there will come a point where that's mostly what we think about the whole company and it won't be like it's not like you have one safety team it's like when we ship gp4 that took the whole company thing all these different aspects and how they fit together and I think it's going to take that more and more of the company thinks about those issues all the time that's literally what humans would be thinking about the more powerful AI becomes so most of the employees that open AI will be thinking safety or at least to some degree broadly defined yes yeah I wonder what are the the full broad definition of that like what are the different harms that could be caused is this like on a technical level or is this almost like SEC it'll be yeah I was going to say it'll be people you know State actors trying to steal the model it'll be uh all of the technical alignment work it'll be societal impacts economic impacts it it'll it's it's not just like we have one team thinking about how to align the model and it's it's really going to be like getting to be getting to the good outcome is going to take the whole the whole effort how hard do you think people State actors perhaps are trying to hack F first of all infiltrate opena but second of all like infiltrate unseen they're trying what kind of accent do they have I don't think I should go into any further details on this point okay um but I presume it'll be more and more and more as time goes on that feels reasonable boy what a dangerous space what aspect of the leap and sorry to linger on this even though you can't quite say details yet but what aspects of the leap from gbt 4 to gbt 5 are you excited about I'm excited about being smart and I know that sounds like a glib answer but I think the really special thing happening is that it's not like it gets better in this one area and worse at others it's getting like better across the board that's I think super cool yeah there's this magical moment I mean you meet certain people you hang out with people and they you talk to them you can't quite put a finger on it but they kind of get you it's not intelligence really it's like it's something else uh and that's probably how I would characterize the the progress of GPT it's not like yeah you can point out look it didn't get this or that but it's just to which degree is there's this intellectual connection between like you feel like there's an understanding in your crappy formulated prompts that you're doing that it grasps the the deeper question behind the question that you yeah I'm also excited by that I mean all of us love being understood heard and understood that's for sure that's it's a weird feel even like with the programming like when you're programming and you say say something or just the the the completion that GPT might do it's just such a good feeling when it got you like what you're thinking about and I look forward to getting you even better uh on the programming front looking out into the future how much programming do you think humans will be doing 5 10 years from now I mean a lot but I think it'll be in a very different shape like you know maybe some people program entirely in natural language entirely natural language I mean no one programs like writing bite code I'm some people no one programs the punch cards anymore I'm sure you can find someone who does but you know what I mean yeah you're G to get a lot of angry comments no no yeah there's very few i' I've been looking for people program Fortran it's hard to find even Fortran I I hear you but that changes the nature what the ski the skill set or the predisposition for the kind of people we call programmers then changes the skill set how much it changes the predisposition I'm I'm not sure oh same kind of puzzle solving all that kind of stuff you program is hard it's like how get like that last 1% to to close the gap how hard is that yeah I think with most other cases the best practitioners of The Craft will use multiple tools and they'll do some work in natural language and when they need to go you know right C for something they'll do that will we uh see humanid robots or humanoid robot brains from open AI at some point at some point how important is embodied AI to you I think it's like sort of depressing if we have AGI and the only way to like get things done in the physical world is like to make a human go do it so I I really hope that as part of this transition as this phase change we also get uh we also get humanoid robots or some sort of physical world robots I mean open a has some history quite a bit of History working in robotics yeah but it hasn't quite like done in terms a small company we have to really focus and also robots were hard for the wrong reason at the time but like we will return to robots at in some way at some point that sounds both inspiring and menacing why because immediately we will return to robots kind of like in in like termin we will return to work on developing robots we will not like turn ourselves into robots of course yeah when do you think we you and we as Humanity will build AGI I used to love to speculate on that question I have realized since that I think it's like very poorly formed and that people use extremely definition different definitions for what AGI is uh and so I think it makes more sense to talk about when we'll build systems that can do capability X or Y or Z rather than you know when we kind of like fuzzily cross this one mile marker it's not like like AGI is also not an ending it's much more of a it's closer to a beginning but it's much more of a mile marker than either of those things and but what I would say in the of not trying to dodge a question is I expect that by the end of this decade and possibly somewhat sooner than that we will have quite capable system that we look at and say wow that's really remarkable if we could look at it now you know maybe we've adjusted by the time we get there yeah but you know if you look at Chad GPT e35 and you show that to Alan touring or not even aloran people in the 90s they would be like this is definitely AGI or not definitely but there's a lot of experts that would say this is Agi yeah but I don't think chat I don't think 35 changed the world it maybe changed the world's expectations for the future and that's actually really important and it did kind of like get more people to take this seriously and put us on this new trajectory and that's really important too so again I don't want to undersell it I think it like I could retire after that accomplishment and be pretty happy with my career but as an artifact I don't think we're going to look back at that and say that was a threshold uh that really changed the world itself so to you you're looking for some really major transition in how the world for me that's part of what AGI implies like Singularity level transition definitely not but just a major like the internet being like like Google search did I guess uh what was a transition point that does the global economy feel any different to you now or materially different to you now than it did before we launched dpt4 I would I think you would say no no no it might be just a really nice tool for a lot of people to use will help you a lot of stuff but doesn't feel different and you're saying that I mean again people Define AGI all sorts of different ways so maybe you have a different definition than I do but for me I think that should be part of it there could be major theatrical moments also what what to you would be an impressive thing AGI would do like you are alone in a room with a system this is personally important to me I don't know if this is the right definition I think when a system can significantly increase the rate of scientific discovery in the world that's like a huge deal I believe that most real economic growth comes from scientific and technological progress I agree with you that's why I don't like the skepticism about science in the recent years totally but actual rate like measurable rate of scientific discovery but even just seeing a system have really novel intuitions like scientific intuitions even that would be just incredible yeah you're quite possibly would be the person to build the AGI to be able to interact with it before anyone else does what kind of stuff would you talk about I mean definitely the researchers here will do that before I do so uh but what will I i' I've actually thought a lot about this question if I were someone was like I think this is as we talked ear I think this is a bad framework but if someone were like okay we're finished here's a laptop this is the AGI uh you know you can you can go talk to it like I find it surprisingly difficult to say what I would ask that I would expect that first AGI to be able to answer um like that first one is not going to be the one which is like go like you know I don't think like go explain to me like the grand unified theory of physics The Theory of Everything for physics I'd love to ask that question I'd love to know the answer to that question you can ask yes and no questions about does such a theory exist can it exist well then those are the first questions I would ask yes or no just very and then based on that are there other alien civilizations out there yes or no what's your intuition and then you just asked that yeah I mean well so I don't expect that this first AGI could answer any of those questions even as yes or NOS but those would if if it could those would be very high on my list maybe you can start assigning probabilities maybe maybe we need to go invent more technology and measure more things first but if it's a AGI oh I see it just doesn't have enough data I mean maybe it says like you know you want to know the answer to this question about physics I need you to like build this machine and make these five measurements and tell me that yeah like what the hell do you want from me I need the machine first and I'll help you deal with the data from that machine maybe it'll help you build the machine maybe maybe and on the mathematical side maybe prove some things are you interested in that side of things too the formalized exploration of ideas whoever builds AGI first gets a lot of power do you trust yourself with that much power look I I was gonna I'll just be very honest with this answer I was going to say and I still believe this that it is important that I nor any other one person have total control over open AI or over AGI and I think you want a robust governance system um I can point out a whole bunch of things about all of our board drama from last year about how I didn't fight it initially and was just like yeah that's you know the will of the board even though I think it's a really bad decision and then later I clearly did fight it and I can explain the nuance and why I think it was okay for me to fight it later but as many people have observed um although the board had the legal ability to fire me in practice it didn't quite work and that is its own kind of governance failure now again I I feel like I can completely defend the specifics here and I think most people would agree with that but it it does make it harder for me to like look you in the eye and say hey the board can just fire me um I continue to not want super voting control over open AI i' never have never had it never have wanted it um even after all this craziness I still don't want it uh I continue to think that no company should be making these decisions and that we really need governments to put rules of the road in place and I realize that that means people like Mark andrion or whatever will claim I'm going for regulatory capture and I'm just willing to be misunderstood there it's not true and I think in the fullness of time midle get proven out why this is important um but I think I have made plenty of bad decisions for open AI along the way and a lot of good ones and I am proud of the track record overall but I don't think any one person should and I don't think any one person will I think it's just like too big of a thing now and it's happening throughout Society in a good and healthy way but I don't think any one person should be in control of an AGI that would be or or or or this whole movement towards AGI and I don't think that's what's happening thank you for saying that that was really powerful and that is really insightful that this idea that the board can fire you is legally true but you can uh and human beings can manipulate the masses into uh overriding the board and so on but I think there's also a much more positive version of that where the people have power so the board can't be too powerful either there's a balance of power in all of this balance of power is a good thing for sure are you afraid of losing control of the AGI itself there a lot of um people who worried about existential risk not because of State actors not because of security concerns but because of the AI itself that is not my top worry as I currently see things there have been times I worried about that more there may be times again in the future where that's my top worry it's not my top worry right now what's your intuition about it not being a worri cuz there's a lot of other stuff to worry about essentially you think you could be surprised we for sure could be surprised like saying it's not my top worry doesn't mean I don't we need like I think we need to work on it's super hard we have and we have great people here who do work on that it's I think there's a lot of other things we also have to get right to you it's not super easy to escape the box at this time like connect to the internet you know we like talked about theatrical risks earlier that's a theatrical risk like that that is a that is a thing that can really like take over how people think about this problem and there's a big group of like uh very smart I think very well-meaning AI safety researchers that got super hung up on this one problem I'd argue without much progress but super hung up on this one problem I'm actually happy that they do that because I think we do need to think about this more but I think it pushed aside it push out of the space of discourse a lot of the other very significant air related risks let me ask you about you Tweeting with no capitalization is the shift key broken on your keyboard why does anyone care about that I deeply care but why I mean other people ask me about that too yeah any intuition I think it's the same reason there's like uh there poets E Cummings that doesn't mostly doesn't use capitalization to say like you to the system kind of thing and I think people are very paranoid because they want you to follow the rules you think that's what it's about I think it's it's it's uh it's like this guy doesn't follow the rules he doesn't capitalize his tweets yeah this seems really dangerous he seems like an anarchist it doesn't are you just being poetic hipster what what's the uh I grew up as follow the rules Sam I grew up as a very online kid i' spent a huge amount of time like chatting with people back in the days where you did it on a computer you know you could like log off into messenger at some point and I never capitalized there as I think most like internet kids didn't or maybe they still don't I don't know um and I actually this is like now I'm like really trying to reach for something but I think capitalization has gone down over time like if you read like Old English writing they capitalized a lot of random words in the middle of sentences nouns and stuff that we just don't do anymore I personally think it's sort of like a dumb construct that we capitalize the letter at the beginning of a sentence and of certain names and whatever but you know I don't it's fine uh and then what I and I used to I think even like capitalize my tweets because I was trying to sound professional or something um yeah I haven't capitalized my like private DMS or whatever in a long time and then slowly stuff like shorter form less formal stuff has slowly drifted to like closer and closer to like how I would text my friends if I like write if I like pull up a Word document and I'm like writing a strategy memo for the company or something I always capitalize that if I'm writing like a long kind of more like formal message I always use capitalization there too so I still remember how to do it but even that may Fade Out I don't know like it's but I never spend time thinking about this so I don't have like a readymade well it's interesting it's good to first of all know there's the shift key is not broken I mostly concerned about your while being on that front I wonder if people like still capitalize their Google searches like if you're writing something just to yourself or their chbt queries if you're writing something just to yourself do you still do do do some people still bother to capitalize probably not but very it's yeah there's a percentage but it's a small one the thing that would make me do it is if people were like it's a sign of like like cuz I I'm sure I could like force myself to use capital letters obviously if if if it felt like a sign of respect to people or something then then I could go do it yeah but I don't know I just like I don't think about this I don't think there's a disrespect but I think it's just the conventions of Civility that have a momentum and then you realize it's not actually important for civility if it's not a sign of respect or disrespect but I think there's a movement of people that just want you to have a philosophy around it so they can let go of this whole capitalization thing I don't think anybody else thinks about this as my I mean maybe some I know about this every day for many hours a day so I'm I'm really grateful we clarified it can't be the only person that doesn't capitalize tweets you're the only CEO of a company that doesn't capitalize tweets I don't even think that's true but maybe maybe all right we'll invate further and and uh return to this topic later given sora's ability to generate uh simulated worlds let me ask you a pothead question uh does this increase your belief if you ever had one that we live in simulation maybe a simulated world uh generated by an AI system yes somewhat I don't think that's like the strongest piece of evidence I think the fact that we can generate worlds should increase everyone's probability somewhat or at least open to it openness to it somewhat but you know I was like certain we would be able to do something like Sora at some point it happened faster than I thought but that I guess that was not a big update yeah but it the fact that and presumably it get better and better and better the fact that you can generate worlds they're novel they're based in some aspect of training data but like when you look at them they're they novel um that makes you think like how easy it is to do this thing how these create universes entire like video game worlds that seem ultra realistic and photo realistic and then how easy is it to get lost in that world first with a VR headset and then on the physics based level someone said to me recently I thought it was a super profound Insight that uh there are these like very simple sounding but very psychedelic insights that exist sometimes so the square root function square root of four no problem square root of two you know okay now I have to like think about this new kind of number um but once I come up with this easy idea of a square root function that you know you can kind of like explain to a child and exists by even like you know looking at some simple geometry then you can ask the question of what is the square root of1 and that this is you know why it's like a psychedelic thing that like tips you into some whole other kind of reality and you can come up with lots of other examples but I think this idea that the lowly square root operator can offer such a profound insight and a new realm of knowledge applies in a lot of ways and I think there are a lot of those operators for why people may think that any version that they like of the simulation hypothesis is maybe more likely than they thought before but for me the fact that Sora worked is not in the top five I do think broadly speaking AI will serve as those kinds of gateways at its best simple psychedelic like gateways to another wave see reality that seems for certain that's pretty exciting I haven't done iasa before but I will soon I'm going to the aforementioned Amazon jungle in a few weeks you excited yeah I'm excited for not the iasa part that's great whatever but I'm going to spend several weeks in the jungle deep in the jungle and it's exciting but it's terrifying because there's a lot of things that can eat you there and kill you and poison you and uh but it's also nature and it's the machine of Nature and you can't help but appreciate the Machinery of nature in the Amazon jungle cuz it's just like this system that just exists and renews itself like every second every minute every hour just in it's the machine it makes you appreciate like this thing we have here this human thing came from somewhere this evolutionary machine has created that and it's most clearly on display in the jungle so hopefully I'll make it out alive if not this will be the last conversation we had so I really deeply appreciate it uh do you think as I mentioned before there's other alien civilizations out there intelligent ones when you look up at the skies I deeply want to believe that the answer is yes I do find the kind of where I I find the firmy Paradox very very puzzling I find it scary that intelligence is not good at handling yeah very scary powerful Technologies but at the same time I think I'm pretty confident that there's just a very large number of intelligent alien civilizations out there it might just be really difficult to travel through space very possible and it also makes me think about the nature of intelligence Maybe were really blind to what intelligence looks like and maybe AI will help us see that it's not as simple as IQ tests and simple puzzle solving there's something bigger what gives you hope about the future of humanity this thing we got going on this human civilization I think the past is like a lot I mean if we just look at what Humanity has done in a not very long period of time you know huge problems deep flaws lots to be super ashamed of but on the whole very inspiring gives me a lot of Hope just the trajectory of it all yeah that we're together pushing towards a better future it is you know one one thing that I wonder about is is is Agi going to be more like some single brain or is it more like the sort of Scaffolding in society between all of us you have not had a great deal of genetic drift from your great great great grandparents and yet what you're capable of is dramatically different what you know is dramatically different and that is not that's not because of biological change it is because I mean you got a little bit healthier probably you have modern medicine you eat better whatever um but what you have is this scaffolding that we all contributed to built on top of no one person is going to go build the iPhone no one person is going to go discover all of Science and yet you get to use it and that gives you incredible ability and so in some sense they like we all created that and that fills me with hope for the future that was a very Collective thing yeah we really are standing on the shoulders of giants you mentioned when we were talking about theatrical dramatic AI risks that sometimes you might be afraid for your own life do you think about your death are you afraid of it I mean I like if I got shot tomorrow and I knew it today I'd be like oh that's sad I like don't you know I want to see what's going to happen yeah what a curious time what an interesting time but I would mostly just feel like very grateful for my life the moments that you did get yeah me too it's a pretty awesome life I get to enjoy awesome creations of humans of which I believe Chad GPT is one of and everything that uh open the ey is doing Sam it's uh really an honor and pleasure to talk to you again great to talk to you thank you for having me thanks for listening to this conversation with Sam Alman to support this podcast please check out our sponsors in the description and now let me leave you with some words from Arthur C Clark and may be that our role on this planet is not to worship God but to create him thank you for listening and hope to see you next time