Kind: captions
Language: en
the United States has
1,770 nuclear weapons deployed meaning
those weapons could launch in as little
as 60 seconds and up to a couple minutes
some of them on the bombers might take
an hour or so Russia has
1,674 deployed nuclear weapons same
scenario their weapon systems are on par
with
ours that's not to mention the 12,500
nuclear weapons amongst the nine nuclear
armed Nations the sucking up into the
nuclear stem 300 mph winds you're
talking about people miles out getting
sucked up into that stem when you see
the mushroom cloud Lex that would be
people 30 40 mile wide mushroom cloud
blocking out the Sun and that speaks
nothing of the radiation poisoning that
follows in addition to the launch on
warning concept there's this other
insane concept called sole presidential
Authority and you might think in a
democracy that's impossible right you
can't just start a war well you can just
start a nuclear war if you're the
commanderin-chief the president of the
United States in fact you're the only
one who can do that we are one
misunderstanding one miscalculation away
from nuclear Armageddon no matter how
nuclear war starts it ends with everyone
dead the following is a conversation
with Annie Jacobson an investigative
journalist polit surprise finalist and
author of several amazing books on war
weapons government secrecy and National
Security including the books titled Area
51 Operation Paperclip the pentagon's
brain phenomena surprise kill vanish and
her new book nuclear
war this is Alex Freedman podcast to
support it please check out our sponsors
in the description and now dear friends
here's Annie
Jacobson let's start with a an immensely
dark topic nuclear war how many people
would a nuclear war between the United
States and Russia kill so I'm coming
back at you with a very dark answer and
a very big
number and that number is 5 billion
people you go second by second minute by
minute hour by hour what would
happen if the nuclear war
started so uh there's a lot of angles
from which I would love to talk to you
about this at first how would the deaths
happen in the short term and the long
term so to start off the reason I wrote
the book is so that readers like you
could see in appalling detail just how
horrific nuclear war would be and as you
said second by second minute by wi
minute the book covers nuclear launch to
nuclear winter I purposely don't get
into the politics that lead up to that
or the National Security Maneuvers or
the posturing or of that I just want
people to know nuclear war is insane and
every Source I interviewed for this book
from Secretary of Defense you know all
retired nuclear subforce commander
stratcom commander FEMA director except
on and on and on nuclear weapons
Engineers they all shared with me the
common denominator that nuclear war is
insane you know first million then tens
of millions then hundreds of millions of
people will die in the first 72 minutes
of a nuclear war and then comes nuclear
wi winter where the billions happen from
starvation and so the shock power of all
of this is
meant for each and every one of us to
say wait what this actually exists
behind the veil of National Security and
I don't know you know most people do not
think about nuclear war on a daily basis
and yet hundreds of thousands of people
in the nuclear command and control are
at the ready in the event it happens but
it doesn't take too many people to start
one in the words of Richard Garwin who
was the nuclear weapons engineer who
drew the plans for the ivy Mike
thermonuclear bomb the first
thermonuclear bomb ever exploded
1952 Garwin shared with me his opinion
that all it takes is one nistic madman
with a nuclear Arsenal to start a
nuclear war and that's how I begin the
scenario what are the different ways it
could start like literally who presses a
button and what does it take to press a
button so the way it starts is in space
meaning the US defense department has a
early warning
system and the system in space is called
cbers a constellation of satellites that
is keeping an eye on all of America's
enemies so that the moment an ICBM
launches the satellite in space and I'm
talking about on10th of the way to the
Moon that's how powerful these
satellites are in
geosync they see the hot rod rocket
exhaust on the
ICBM in a fraction of a second after it
launches a fraction of a
second and so there begins this
horrifying
policy called launch on warning right
and that's the US Counterattack
meaning the reason that the United
States is so ferociously watching for a
nuclear launch somewhere around the
globe is so that
the nuclear command and control system
in the US can move into action to
immediately make a Counter Strike
because we have that policy launch on
warning which is exactly like it says it
means the United States will not wait to
absorb a nuclear attack it will launch
nuclear weapons in response
before the bomb actually hits so the
president as part of the launch on
warning policy has 6
minutes I guess can't launch for 6
minutes but at 6 Minute mark from that
first
warning the president
can launch and that was one of the most
remarkable details to really nail down
for this book when I was reporting this
book and talking to Secretary of
defenses for example who are the people
who advise the president on this matter
right you say to yourself wait a minute
how could that possibly be and so let's
unpack that right so in addition to the
launch on warning concept there's this
other insane concept called sole
presidential Authority and you might
think in a democracy that's impossible
right you can't just start a war well
you can just start a nuclear war if
you're the commander-in-chief the
president of the United States in fact
you're the only one who can do that and
we can get into later why that exists I
was able to get the origin story of that
concept from Los Alamos they
Declassified it for the book um but the
idea behind that is that nuclear war
will unfold so fast only one person can
be in charge the president he asks
permission of no one not the Secretary
of Defense not the chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff not the US Congress so
built into that is this extraordinary
speed you talk about the six-minute
window and some people say oh that's
ridiculous how do we know that
six-minute window well here's the best
sort of you know hitting the nail on the
head statement I can give you which is
in President Reagan's Memoirs he refers
to this six-minute window and he says he
he calls it irrational which it is he
says how can anyone make a decision to
launch nuclear weapons based on a blip
on a radar scope his
words to unleash Armageddon and yet that
is the reality behind nuclear war just
imagine sitting there one
person because a president is a human
being sitting there just got the warning
that Russia
launched you have six
minutes you know I I meditate on my
immortality every day and here you would
be sitting and meditating contemplating
not just your own mortality but the
mortality of all the people you know
loved ones just imagining like what what
would be going through my head is all
the people I know in
love like personally and knowing that
there'll be no more most likely and if
they somehow
survive they will be suffering and will
eventually
die I guess the question that kept
coming up is how do we stop this is it
inevitable that it's going to be
escalated to a full-on nuclear war that
destroys everything and it seems like it
it will be it's inevitable in the
position of the president it's almost
inevitable that they have to respond I
mean one of the things I found shocking
was how little apparently most
presidents know about the responsibility
that literally lays at their feet right
so you may think through this six-minute
window I may think through this
six-minute window but what I learned
like for example former Secretary of
Defense Leon Panetta was really helpful
in explaining this to me because before
he was SEF he served as the um director
of the
CIA and before that he was the white
house chief of staff and so he has seen
these different roles that have been so
close to the president but he explained
to me that when he was the white house
chief of staff for President
Clinton he noticed how President Clinton
didn't want to ever really deal with the
nuclear issue because he had so many
other issues to deal with um and that
only when Panetta became Secretary of
Defense he told me did he really realize
the weight of all of this because he
knew he would be the person that the
president president would turn
to were he to be notified of a nuclear
attack and by the way it's the launch on
warning it's that it's the the ballistic
missile seen from Outer Space by the
satellite and then there also must be a
second confirmation from a ground radar
system but in that process which is just
a couple minutes everyone is getting
ready to notify the president and one of
the first people that gets notified by
noad or by stratcom or by nro these
different parties that all see the early
warning data one of the first peoples
that's notified is the Secretary of
Defense as well as the chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff because those two
together are going to brief the
president about you know sir you have
six minutes to
decide and that's where you realize the
immediacy of all of this is so counter
to Imagining the
scenario and again all the presidents
come into office I have learned
understanding the idea that of
deterrence this idea that we have these
massive arsenals of nuclear weapons
pointed at one another ready to launch
so that we never have nuclear war but
what we're talking about now is what if
we did what if we did and what you've
raised is like
this really spooky eerie subtext of the
world right now
because many of the nuclear armed
nations are in direct conflict with
other nations and for the first time in
decades nuclear threats are actually
coming out of the
mouths of leaders this is
shocking so deterrence the polite
implied assumption is that nobody will
launch and if they did we would launch
back and everybody would be dead but
that assumption falls apart completely
the whole philosophy of it falls apart
once the first launch happens absolutely
then you have six minutes to decide wait
a minute are we going to hit back and
kill everybody on Earth or do we turn
the other cheek in the most horrific way
possible well when when nuclear war
started there's no like battle for New
York or battle for Moscow it's just
literally it you know it was called in
the Cold War push button War fair but in
essence that is that is what it is let's
get some numbers on the table if you
don't mind right because when you're
saying like wait a minute we're just
hoping that it holds right let's just
talk about Russia and the US the
arsenals that are literally pointed at
one another right now right so the
United States has one
1,770 nuclear weapons deployed meaning
those weapons could launch in as little
as 60 seconds and up to a couple minutes
some of them on the bombers might take
an hour or so Russia has
1,674 deployed nuclear weapons same
scenario their weapon systems are on par
with
ours that's not to mention the 12,5 00
nuclear weapons amongst the nine nuclear
armed Nations but when you think about
those kind of arsenals of just between
the United States and Russia you real
and you realize everything can be
launched in seconds and minutes then you
realize the madness of Matt that this
idea that no one would launch because it
would assure everyone's destruction yes
but what if someone did and in my
interviews with scores of top tier
National Security advisers people who
advise the president people who are
responsible for these decisions if they
had to be made every single one of them
said it could happen they didn't say
this would never
happen and so the
idea is worth thinking about
because I believe that it pulls back the
veil on
on a fundamental security that if
someone were to use a tactical nuclear
weapon oh well it's just an
escalation it's far more than
that so to you the use of a tactical
nuclear weapon maybe you can draw the
line between a tactical and a strategic
nuclear weapon that could be a catalyst
like that's a very difficult thing to
walk back from oh my God almost
certainly and again any every person in
the National Security environment tells
we we'll agree with that right certainly
on the American side um strategic
weapons those are like big Weapons
Systems the America has a nuclear Triad
we have our icbms which are The Silo
based missiles that have a nuclear
warhead in the nose cone and they can
get from one continent to the other in
roughly 30 minutes then we have our
bombers b52s and b2s that are nuclear
capable um those take travel time to get
to another continent those can also be
recalled the icbms cannot be recalled or
redirected once launched that one is a
particularly terrifying one so land
launched missiles Rockets with a warhead
can't be recalled cannot be recalled or
redirected and speaking of how little
the presidents generally know as we were
talking a moment ago President Reagan in
198 3 gave a press conference where he
misstated that submarine launched
ballistic missiles could be recalled
they cannot be recalled so that gives
you here's the guy in charge of the
Arsenal if it has to get let loose and
he doesn't even know that they cannot be
recalled so this is the kind of
misinformation and disinformation and
and you know un Secretary General
Antonio gutterz recently said when he
was talking about the conflicts Rising
around the world he said We Are One
misunderstanding one miscalculation away
from nuclear
Armageddon so just to sort of Linger on
the previous point of tactical nukes so
you're describing strategic nukes land
launched bombers submarine launched what
are tactical nukes so that's the Triad
right and we have the Triad and Russia
has the Triad
tactical nuclear weapons are smaller
Warheads that were designed to be used
in battle and that is what Russia is
sort of threatening to use right now
that is this idea that you would you
know make a decision on the battlefield
in an operational environment to use a
tactical nuclear weapon you're just sort
of upping the ante but the problem is
that all treaties are based on this idea
of no nuclear use right you cannot cross
that line and so the what would happen
if the line is crossed is so devastating
to even
consider I think that the conversation
is well worth having among everyone you
know that is in a power of
position how as you know the UN
Secretary General said this is madness
right this is madness we must come back
from the brink we are at the
brink uh can we talk about some other
numbers so you mentioned the number of
Warhead so land launched how long does
it take to
travel across the
ocean from the United States to to
Russia from Russia to the United States
from China to the United States uh how
approximately how long when I was
writing an earlier book on DARPA the the
Pentagon science agency
um I went to a
library down in San Diego called the gel
library to look at herb York's papers
herb York was the first Chief scientist
for the Pentagon for DARPA then called
arpa and I had been trying to get the
number from the various agencies that be
to answer your like what is the exact
number and how do we know it and like
does it change and you know as
technology advances does that number
reduce all these kinds of questions and
no one will answer that question on an
official level and so much to my
surprise I found the answer in herb
York's like Dusty Archive of papers and
this is information that was jealously
guarded I mean it didn't it was not it's
not necessarily classified but it
certainly wasn't out there and I felt
like wow herb York left these behind for
someone like me to find right and what
the process of he wanted to know the
answer to your question and as the guy
in charge of it all so he hired this
group of scientists who then and still
are in many ways like the Pent the
Supermen scientists of the Pentagon and
they're called the Jason scientists many
conspiracies about them abound I
interviewed their founder and have
interviewed many of them but they
whittled the number down to seconds
okay specifically for her York and it
goes like this cuz this is where my jaw
dropped and I went wow okay so 26
minutes and 40 seconds from a Launchpad
in the Soviet Union to the east coast
and it happens in three phases very
simple and interesting to remember
because then suddenly all of this makes
more sense boost phase midcourse phase
and then terminal phase okay boost Phase
5 minutes that's when the rocket
launches so you just imagine a rocket
going off the Launchpad and the fire
beneath it again that's why the
satellites can see it okay now it's
becoming visual now it makes sense to me
right five minutes and that's where the
rocket can be tracked and then Imagine
Learning wait a minute after 5 minutes
the rocket can no longer be seen from
space the satellite can only see the hot
rocket exhaust then the missile enters
its midc phase 20 20 minutes and that's
the ballistic part of it where it's kind
of flying up at between 500 and 700
miles above the Earth and moving very
fast and with the Earth until it gets
very close to its Target and the last
100 seconds are terminal phase it's
where the Warhead reenters the
atmosphere and
detonates 26 minutes and 40 seconds now
in my scenario I open with North Korea
launching a one Megaton nuclear warhead
at Washington DC that's the nealis
madman maneuver that's the bolt out of
the blue attack that everyone in
Washington will tell you they're afraid
of and North
Korea is a little has a little bit
different geography and so I had MIT
Professor ameritus Ted postal do the
math 33 3 minutes from a Launchpad in
Pyongyang to the east coast of the
United States you get the idea it's
about 30 minutes but hopefully now that
allows readers to suddenly see all this
as a real you you almost see it as you
know as poetry as terrible as that may
sound you can visualize it and suddenly
it makes sense and I think the sense
making part of it is really what I'm
after in this book because a want people
to understand on the the one hand it's
incredibly simple it's just the people
that have made it so complicated but
it's one of those things that can change
all of world history in a matter of
minutes we just don't as a human
civilization have experience with
that
but it doesn't mean it'll never happen
it can happen just like that I mean I
think what you're after and I couldn't
agree more with is
like why is why is
this fundamentally
annihilating system a system of mass
genocide as John rubel you know in the
book refers to it why is it still
exist you know we've had 75 years since
there have been two superpowers with the
nuclear bomb um so that threat has been
there for 75 years and we have managed
to stay alive one of the reasons why so
many of the sources in the book agreed
to talk to me people who had not
previously gone on the record about all
of this was because they are now
approaching the end of their lives they
spent their lives dedicated to
preventing nuclear World War II MH and
they'll be the first people to tell you
we're closer to this as a reality than
ever before and so on the bright the
only bright side of any of this is that
like the answer lies most definitely in
communication so there's a million other
questions here uh I think the details
are fascinating and important to
understand so one you also say uh
nuclear submarines you mentioned about
30 minutes 20 26 33 minutes but with uh
nuclear submarines that number can be
much much lower so how long does it take
for a warhead to missile to reach the
east coast of the United States from a
submarine just when you thought it was
really bad yeah and then you kind of
realize about the submarines I mean the
submarines are what are called second
strike capacity right and you know it
was descri submarines were described to
me this way they are as dangerous to
civilization and let me say a nuclear
armed nuclear powered submarine is as
dangerous to civilization as an asteroid
okay they are un stoppable they are
unlocatable the former Chief of the
nuclear submarine forces Admiral Michael
Connor told me it's easier to find a
grapefruit sized object in space than a
submarine Under the Sea okay so these
things are like hell
machines and they're moving around
throughout the oceans ours Russia's
China's maybe North Korea constantly and
we now know they're sneaking up to the
east and west coast of the United States
within a couple hundred miles how do we
know that why do we know that well I
found a document inside of a budget um
that the defense department was going to
Congress for more money recently and
showed maps of precisely where these
submarines how close they were getting
to the Eastern Seaboard so wait wait
wait so nuclear subs are getting within
200 miles couple hundred miles yes they
weren't precise on the number but when
you look at the map yep and that's when
you're talking about under 10 minutes
from launch to to strike undetectable
and they're undetectable the the map
making is done after the fact because of
a lot of underwater surveillance systems
that we have you know but in real time
you cannot find a a nuclear submarine
and you know just the way a submarine
launches goes 150 ft below the surface
to launch its ballistic missile I mean
it comes out of the missile tube and
with enough thrust that the the
thrusters the boo they ignite outside
the water and then they move into boost
and so the technology involved is just
stunning and shocking and again
trillions of dollars spent so that we
never have a nuclear war but my God what
if we
did as you right they're called the
handmade of the
Apocalypse what a terrifying label I
mean
uh you want one of the things you also
write about so for the land launched
ones they're presumably
underground so the silos how long does
it take to go from like pressing the
button to them emerging from underground
for launch and is is that part
detectable or it's only the the heat so
what's interesting about the silos
America has 4 00 silos right we've had
more um but we have 400 and they're
underground and they're called Minutemen
right after the Revolutionary War Heroes
but the sort of joke in Washington is
they're not called Minutemen for nothing
because they can launch in one minute
yeah right so the president orders the
launch of the icbms ICBM stands for
intercontinental ballistic missile he
orders the launch and they launch 60
seconds later and then they take 30 some
odd minutes to get to where they're
going the submarines take about 14 or 15
minutes from the presidential from the
launch command to actually launching and
that has to do I surmise with the
location of the submarine its depth some
of these things are so highly classified
and others other details are shockingly
available if you look deep enough or if
you ask enough question questions and
you can go from one document to the next
to the next and really find these
answers not to ask top secret questions
but uh to what degree do you think the
Russians know the locations of the silos
in the US and vice versa Lex you can you
and I can find the location of every
Silo right now they're all there and
before they were there on on you know
Google they were there in maps because
we're a democracy and we make these
things known Okay now what's tricky is
that Russia and North Korea rely upon
what are called Road Mobile launchers
right so Russia has a lot of underground
silos you know all of the scenario takes
you through these different facilities
that really do exist and they're all
sourced with how many weapons they have
and their launch procedures and whatnot
but in addition to having um underground
silos they have Road Mobile launchers
and that means you just have one of
these giant icbms on a 22
axle truck that can move stealthily
around the country so that it can't be
targeted by the US defense department we
don't have those in America because
presumably the average you know American
isn't going to go for like the ICBM Road
Mobile Launcher driving down the street
in your town or city um which is why the
defense department will justify we need
the second strike capacity capability
the uh submarines right because you know
the I mean the wonky stuff that is worth
looking into as a if you really dig the
book and are like wait a minute it's all
footnoted where you can learn more about
how these systems have changed over time
um and why more than anything it's very
difficult to get out of this catch22
conundrum that you know we need nuclear
weapons to keep us safe that is the real
Enigma
because the other guys have them right
and the other guys have sort of more
Sinister ways of of using them or at
least that's what the nomenclature out
of the Pentagon will always be when
anyone tries to say we just need to
really think about full disarmament
you've written about intelligence
agencies how good are the intelligence
agencies on this how much does CIA know
about the the Russian uh the Russian
launch sites and capability
and command and control procedures and
all this and vice versa I mean all of
this because it's decades old is really
well known if you go to the Federation
of American scientists they have a team
led by a guy called Hans Christensen who
runs What's called the nuclear notebook
and he and his team every year are
keeping track of this number of warheads
on these number of weapon systems and
because of the treaties the different
signatories to the treat all report
these numbers and of course the
different intelligence Community people
are keeping track of what's being you
know revealed honestly and and reported
with transparency and what is being
hidden the real issue is the new systems
that Russia is working on right now um
and that will lead us you know we are
kind of moving into an era whereby the
the threat of actually having new weapon
systems that are nuclear capable is very
real because of the escalating tensions
around the world and that's where the
CIA would guess is doing most of its
work right now so most of your research
is kind of looking at the the older
versions of the system and presumably
there's potentially secret development
of new ones hopefully which violates
treaties so yes that is where the
intelligence agencies but you know at a
point it's Overkill literally and
figuratively right people are up in arms
about these Hypersonic weapons well we
have a Hypersonic weapons program you
know Falcon Google blackswift right this
is loeds doing um you know we're
DARPA exists to create the vast weapon
systems of the future that is its job it
has been doing that since its Creation
in
1957 I would never believe that we
aren't ahead of everyone
call me you know over informed or naive
one or the other uh that would be my
position because DARPA works from the
chicken or the egg scenario you know
that like once once you learn about
something once you learn Russia's
created this you know Typhoon Submarine
which may or may not you know be viable
it's too late if you don't already have
one we probably talk about Dara a little
bit uh one of the things that makes me
sad about locki many things makes me sad
about locked um but one of the things is
because it's very top secret you can't
show off all the incredible engineering
going going on there the other thing
that's more philosophical DARPA also is
that war seems to stimulate most of our
not most but a large percent of our
exciting Innovation and engineering and
so but that's also the pragmatic fact of
life on Earth is that uh the risk of
Annihilation is is a great motivator for
for for Innovation for engineering and
so on but yes I would not discount uh
the United States in its ability to
build the weapons of the future nuclear
included again
terrifying can you tell me about the
nuclear football as it's called I think
Americans are familiar with the football
at least anyone who sort of you know
follows National Security Concepts
because it's a Satchel it's a leather
satchel that is always with a military
aid in Secret Service nomenclature
that's the mill Aid and he's trailing
around the president 247 365 days a year
and also the vice president by the way
with the ability to launch nuclear war
in that six-minute window all the time
okay um that is also called the football
and it's always with the president to
report this part of the book I
interviewed a lot of people in the
Secret Service that are with the
president and talk about this and the
director of The Secret Service a guy
called Lou merletti told me a story that
I just really found fascinating um he
was also in charge of the president's
detail President Clinton This was um
before he was director of The Secret
Service and he told me the story about
how he said the football is with the
president at all times S period okay
they were traveling to Syria and Clinton
was meeting with President Assad and
they got into an
elevator uh Clinton and the Secret
Service team and one of Assad's guys was
like no you know like about the mill Aid
and Lou said it was like a standoff
because there was no way they were not
going to have the president with his
football in an
elevator and it kind of sums up for me
anyways you you realize what goes into
every single one of these decisions you
realize the massive system of systems
behind every item you might just see in
in passing and glancing on the news as
you see the M Aid carrying that Satchel
well what's in that Satchel I really dug
into that to report this book what is in
that s okay so well okay first of all
that is you know people are say it's
incredibly classified I mean people talk
about UFOs it's incredibly I mean come
on guys that is nothing burger right you
want to know what's really classified
what's in that football right what's in
that Satchel but the peed presidential
emergency action directives right those
have never been leaked no one knows what
they are what we do know from one of the
mill AIDS who spoke on the record a guy
called Buzz Patterson he just describes
the president's orders right so if a
nuclear war has begun if the president
has been told there are nuclear missiles
one or more coming at the United States
you have to launch in a Counterattack
right the red clock is ticking you have
to get the blue in Impact clock ticking
um he needs to look at this list to
decide what targets to strike and what
weapon systems to use and that is what
is on according to Buzz Patterson a
piece of like sort of laminated plastic
he described it like a Denny's menu mhm
and from that
menu the president chooses targets and
chooses weapon
systems and it's probably super old
school like all uh top secret systems
are because they have to be tested over
and over and over and over and over yes
and it's non-digital non-digital it
might literally be a menu from hell
right and there's a meanwhile I learned
this only in reporting the book um there
is a identical black book inside the
stratcom bunker in Nebraska okay so let
me three command bunkers are involved
when when nuclear war begins right
there's the bunker beneath the Pentagon
which is called the National military
command center okay mhm then there is
the bunker beneath Cheyenne Mountain
which everyone has you know or many
people have heard of because it's been
made famous in movies right that is a
very real bunker and then there is a
third bunker which people are not so
familiar with which is the bunker
beneath strategic command in
Nebraska and so it's described to me
this way the Pentagon bunker is the
Beating Heart the Cheyenne Mountain
bunker is the
brains and the stratcom bunker is the
muscle
the stratcom commander will receive word
from the president launch orders and
then directs the
150,000 people beneath him what to do
okay from the bunker in Strat beneath
stratcom that's before he run you know
he gets the orders then he has to run
out of the building and jump onto a
What's called the Doomsday plane we'll
get into that in a minute let me just
finish the I mean but again this is
right these are the details this is like
these are the systematic sequential
details that happen in seconds and
minutes and Reporting them I never
ceased to be amazed by what a system it
is you know a a follows B you know just
it's just numerical right yeah but as we
discussed this procedure each individual
person that follows that procedure might
lose the big picture of the whole thing
I mean especially when you
realize what what is happening y that
almost out of fear you just follow the
steps y or okay so imagine this imagine
being the president you got that six
minute wi you have to you're looking at
your list of strike options you're being
briefed by your chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff and your SAA and this
other really spooky detail in the
stratcom
bunker in addition to the Nuclear Strike
advisor who can answer very specific
questions if the president's like wait a
minute why are we striking that not that
there's also a weather officer and this
is the kind of human detail that kept me
up at night because that weather officer
is in charge of explaining to the
president really fast how many people
are going to die and how many people
are going to die in minutes weeks months
and years from radiation
Fallout because a lot of that has to do
with the weather system
yes yes and so these kinds of the
humanness you know balanced out with the
mechanization of it all MH
is it's just really grotesque
so the uh doomsday plane from stratcom
what's that where's it going it's on
it okay ready it's going to fly in
circles that's where it's going it's
flying in circles around the United
States of
America so that nuclear weapons can be
launched from the
air after the ground systems are taken
out by the incoming icbms or the
incoming
submarine launch ballistic missiles this
has been in play since the
50s this is these These are the
contingency plans for when nuclear war
happens so again going back to this
absurd Paradox nuclear war will never
happen you know Mutual assured
destruction that is why deterrence will
hold well I found a talk that the deputy
director of stratcom gave to a very
close nit group where he said yes
deterrence will hold but if it fails
everything
unravels and think about that word
unravels right and the unraveling is you
know the Doomsday plane launches the
stratcom commander jumps in he's in that
plane he's flying around the United
States and uh he's making decisions
because the pentagon's been taken
out at 911 by the way Bush was in the
Doomsday plane and uh bush had to make
decisions quickly but not so quickly not
as quickly as he would have need to have
done if there's a nuclear launch I mean
six
minutes it's basically happens in three
acts there's the first 24 minutes the
next 24 minutes and the last 24 minutes
and that is the reality of nuclear
weapons what is the Interceptor
capabilities of the United States how
many nuclear missiles can be
stopped I was at a dinner party with a
very informed person right like somebody
who really you know should have known
this and I this is when I was
considering writing and Reporting this
book and he said to me oh Annie that
would never happen because of our
powerful Interceptor system okay well
he's wrong let me tell you about our
powerful Interceptor system first of all
we have 44 Interceptor missiles total
period full stop let me repeat
44 okay earlier we were talking about
Russia's
1,670 deployed nuclear weapons how are
they how are those 44 Interceptor
missiles going to work right um and they
also have a success rate of around 50%
so they work 50% of the time there are
40 of them in Alaska and there four of
them at Vandenberg Air Force Base in
Santa Barbara okay and they are
responsible at about 9 minutes into the
scenario right after the ICBM has
finished that five- minute boost phase
we talked about now it's in midcourse
phase and the ground radar systems have
identified yes this is an incoming ICBM
MH and now the Interceptor missiles have
to launch right it's essentially
shooting a missile with a missile inside
the Interceptor which is just a big
giant rocket in its nose cone it has
what's called a the apply named EXO
atmospheric kill vehicle okay there's no
explosives in that thing it's literally
just going to take out the Warhead
ideally with Force
so one of them is going like you know
March 20 and the I mean the the speeds
at which these two moving objects
hurdling through space are going is
astonishing and the fact that that
interception is even possible is really
remarkable but it's only possible 50% of
the time is it possible that we only
know about 44 but there could be a lot
more no impossible that I would be
willing to bet and how well tested are
these interceptors well that's where we
get the success rate that's around 50%
because of the test right and actually
the Interceptor program is are you ready
for this it's on strategic pause right
right now meaning the Interceptor
missiles are there but developing them
and making them more effective is on
strategic pause because they can't be
made more effective right people have
these fantasies that uh we have a system
like the Iron Dome and they see this in
current events and they're like oh our
interceptors would do that it's just
simply not true why why can't an Iron
Dome like system be constructed for
nuclear warheads we have systems I write
about called the Thad system which is
groundbased and then the Eis system
which is on you know vessels and these
are great at shooting down some in you
know some Rockets but they they they can
only shoot them sort of one at a time
you cannot shoot the motherload as it's
coming in those are the smaller systems
right the tactical nuclear weapons and
by the way our systems are all deployed
overseas and our egis systems are all
out at Sea and again reporting that I
was like wait what you know you have to
really hunker down are we sure about
this people really don't want to believe
this it's an actual fact after 911
Congress considered putting and you know
egis missiles and maybe even Thad
systems along the west coast of the
United States to specifically deal with
the threats against nuclear armed North
Korea but it hasn't done so yet and
again you have to ask yourself wait a
minute this is insanity you know one
nuclear weapon Gets By any of these
systems and it's full out nuclear
warfare
so that's not the solution more nuclear
weapons is not the
solution I'm looking for a hopeful thing
here about North Korea uh how many
deployed nuclear warheads does North
Korea have so does the current system
with as we described it uh the
interceptors and so on have a hope
against the North Korean attack the one
that you mentioned people are worried
about so they North Korea has 50 let's
say 50 nuclear weapons right now some
NOS put it at more than a 100 it's it's
impossible to know because North Korea's
nuclear weapons program has no
transparency they're the only nuclear
armed nation that doesn't announce when
they do a ballistic missile test
everyone else does no one wants to start
a nuclear war by accident right so if
Russia's going to launch an ICBM they
tell us if we're going to launch one and
I'm I'm talking test runs here you know
with the dummy Warhead we we tell them
not North Korea that's a fact okay so
we're constantly up against the fear of
North Korea in the scenario I have the
incoming North Korean one Megaton you
know weapon coming in and the
Interceptor system tries to shoot it
down so there there's not enough time
and this by the way I ran through by all
you know generals from the Pentagon who
run these scenarios for no red right and
confirmed all of this as fact this is
not this is this is this is the
situation right so in the scenario I
have the nuclear ICBM coming in the
Interceptor missiles try to shoot down
the Warhead the capability is is not
like what's called Shoot you know and
look they can't there's not enough time
to go like and we're going to try to get
it we missed it okay let's go for
another one so you have to
go right so in my scenario we fire off
four which is about what I was told with
one to four because you're worried about
the next one that's going to come in
you're going to use up 10% of your
missile force of your Interceptor force
on one and all four Miss and that's
totally
plausible
right uh How likely are mistakes
accidents false alarms taken as real all
this kind of stuff in this picture so
like you've we've kind of assumed the
detection works
correctly How likely is it possible like
anywhere you you described this long
chain of events that can happen how
possible is it just to make a mistake a
stupid human mistake along the way there
have been at least six known like
absolute like like oh my God close calls
how how thank God this happened type
scenarios one was described to me with
an actual personal participant secretary
former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry
right and he described what happened to
him in
1979 he was not yet Secretary of Defense
he was the deputy director of research
and Engineering which is like a big job
at the Pentagon and it was the the the
night watch fell on him essentially
right and he gets this call in the
middle of the night he's told that
Russia has
launched not just icbms but submarine
launch ballistic missiles are coming at
the United States and he is about to
notify the president that the six-minute
window has to begin when he learns it
was a mistake the mistake was that there
was a training tape with a nuclear war
scenario right we haven't even begun to
talk about the nuclear war scenarios at
the Pentagon runs an actual VHS training
tape had been incorrectly insert it into
a system at the Pentagon and so this
nuclear launch showed up at that bunker
beneath the Pentagon and at the bunker
beneath stratcom because they're
connected as being real and then it was
like oh whoops it's actually a
simulation test tape and Perry described
to me what that was like the Paw in his
spirit and his mind and his heart when
he realized I'm about to have to tell
the president that he needs to launch
nuclear weapons and he learned just in
the neck of time that it was it was an
error and that's one of five examples
can you speak to maybe um is there any
more color to the feelings he was
feeling like what's your sense and given
all the experts you've talked to
what what can be said about the seconds
that one feels uh once finding out that
a launch has happened even if that
information is a is false information
for me personally that's the only
firsthand story that I ever heard
because it's so rare and it's so unique
and most people in the National Security
system at least in the past have been
loathed to talk about any of this right
it's like the sacred oath it's Taboo
it's taboo to go against um the system
of systems that is you know making sure
nuclear war never happens Bill Perry was
one of the first people who did this and
a lot of it I believe at least in my
lengthy conversations with him over we
had a lot of Zoom calls over covid when
I began reporting this and he had a lot
to do with me feeling like I could write
this book from a
human point of view and not just from
the mechanized systems because and I
only lightly touch upon this because
it's such a fast sweeping scenario but
Perry for example spent his whole life
dedicated to building weapons of war
only later in life to realize this is
madness and he shared with me that it
was that idea about one's grandchildren
inheriting these nuclear arsenals and
the lack of you know
wisdom that comes with their or origin
stories right when you're involved in it
in the ground up
apparently it
has perhaps you're a different kind of
Steward of these systems than if you
just inherit them and they are you know
pages in a manual mhm people forget you
mentioned the kind of nuclear war
scenarios that the Pentagon runs I'd
love to what do you know about those I
mean again they are very classified
right I mean it was interesting coming
across information levels of
classification I didn't even know
existed like ECI for example is
exceptionally controlled information
right um but the Pentagon War nuclear
war gaming scenarios they're almost all
still classified one of them was
Declassified recently if you can call it
that I show an image of it in the book
and it's just basically
like almost all almost entirely redact
and then like there'll be a date you
know or it'll say like phase one um and
that one was called proud profit but
what was incredible about the
declassification process of that is it
allowed allowed a couple of people who
were there to talk about it okay and
that's why we have that information and
I write about proud profit in the book
because it was super significant in many
ways one it was happening right in 1983
there was an it was an insane moment in
nuclear Arsenal there were
60,000 nuclear weapons right now there's
12,500 so we've come a long way baby
right in terms of disarmament but there
were 60,000 and by the way that was not
the ultimate High the ultimate high was
70,000 okay this is insane and Ronald
Reagan was President and he orders this
war game called proud profit and um you
know this everyone everyone that
mattered was involved they were running
the war game scenarios and what we
learned learn from his
declassification is that no matter how
nuclear war starts there was a bunch of
different scenarios with you know NATO
involved without NATO with the all
different scenarios no matter how
nuclear war starts it ends in
Armageddon it ends with everyone
Deb I mean this is shocking when you
think
about that coupled with the idea that
all that has been done in the 40 mod
years s is okay this let's just really
lean in even harder to
this theoretical phenomena of deterrence
because that's all it is it's just a
statement Lex like deterrence will
hold okay well what if it
doesn't well we know from proud profit
what happens if it
doesn't so almost always so there's no
mechanisms in the human mind and the
human soul that stops IT in the in the
governments they've created it just keep
the procedure escalates always I mean
here's a crazy nomenclature jargon thing
for you ready escalate to deescalate
that's what comes out of it think about
what what I just said escalate to
deescalate okay so someone strikes you
with a nuclear weapon you're going to
escalate it right General heighton
recently said he was stratcom commander
you know if he was sort of saber
rattling with North Korea during Co and
he said they need to know if if they
launch one nuclear weapon we launch one
if they launch two we launch two but
it's actually more than that they launch
one we launch 80 yeah okay that's called
escalate to deescalate like pound the
you know what out of them to get them to
stop but I mean there
is to make a case for that there is a
reason to the
madness because you want to threaten
this gigantic response but when it comes
to it the seconds before there is still
a probability that you'll pull back
which brings us to the most
terrifying facts that I learned in all
of that and that has to do
with errors right not just not errors of
like we spoke about a minute ago with an
you know simulation test tape I'm
talking about if one new one madman one
nealis Mad Men were to launch a nuclear
weapon as I as I write in the scenario
um and we needed to escalate to
deescalate we needed to send nuclear
weapons at let's say North Korea as I do
in my scenario well what is completely
unknown to 98% of the planet is
that not only do the Russians have a
very flawed satellite system so that
they cannot interpret what is happening
properly but there is a Absol absolutely
existential flaw on the system which
Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta
confirmed with me which is that our
icbms do not have enough
range if they're if we launch a
Counterattack against say North Korea
our icbms must fly over
Russia they must fly over Russia so
imagine saying oh no no these 82 you
know Warheads that are going to actually
hit the strike the northern Korean
Peninsula are not coming for you Russia
our adversary right now that we're sort
of saber rattling with just trust
us and that is where nuclear war unfolds
into Armageddon and that hole in
National Security is shocking and as
Panetta told me no one wants to discuss
it and if one nuclear
weapon uh does does reach its Target I
presume communication breaks down
completely or like there's a high risk
of breakdown of communication well let's
back up we are both presumptuous to
assume that communication could even
happen prior to and let me give you a
very specific example during the Ukraine
war
okay if perhaps you remember I think it
was in November of
2022 news reports erroneous ly stated
that a Russian rocket a Russian missile
had hit Poland a NATO country right it
turned out to be a mistake but for
several hours this was actually the
information that was all over the news
breaking news
Okay 36 hours later the chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark
Millie gave a press conference and
talked about this and admitted that he
could not reach his Russian counterpart
during those 36 hours he could not reach
him how are you going to not have an
absolute Armageddon like
furer with nuclear weapons in the air if
people can't get on the
phone during a ground
war I I'd like to believe that there's
people in major
Nations that don't give a damn about the
of politics and can always just
pick up the phone sort of very close to
the top but not at the very top and just
cut through the of it in
situations like this I hope that's true
I doubt it is and let me tell you why
most and you neither you nor I are
political from what I gather right so I
just write about podus Pres