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Language: en
this this to me is goes back to what I
did not expect to be the theme of this
conversation but how hilariously
predictable humans are so Ray dalio
takes a very economic view of the world
and he's like oh hey by the way what he
calls the big cycle is so predictable
that he broke it down into six phases
and every Empire has gone through these
six phases they last for roughly like
100 to 150 years America is basically at
the end of The 100 year cycle
and phase six is total collapse War
basically and the old world order falls
apart there is usually a violent war and
then a new world order is established
and
we're like clockwork on the cycle from a
money perspective from a division
perspective like everything just lines
up so you have to have an internal
populace that is divided uh you need to
get yourself over your skis from a debt
perspective which we've done you have to
start printing money like crazy and
there has to be a new superpower on the
rise like it's the the stage is set and
the stage was set in World War II which
is how we became the dominant power to
your point about waking a sleeping
dragon
sleeping Dragon woke up but now
uh we're in trouble so that's my overly
simplistic view of why this worked it
was sort of a fluke uh not a fluke but
it was we we hit the cycle at just the
right moment when the British Empire
collapsed at the end of World War II
um because of our geography we weren't
destroyed by bombs so we come out of the
war pretty much unscathed so we ramp up
all of our production capabilities we
absolutely crush it we help win we
create the nuclear bomb like just a lot
of things come together and so then
we're established as a world Reserve
currency
um
because it's not like we weren't divided
before then but we got to really enjoy
uh a hot minute of prosperity does that
seem like the right breakdown of why we
could overcome our differences
previously and now we can't like how do
you yeah I don't think it's wrong I
don't think it's wrong at all I think
that it's interesting to me because it
sounds like Ray dalio one of the reasons
you respect them so much is because his
analysis is based in economics and he
he's put his money where his mouth is
economics and economists have long been
viewed as the true predictors of future
Prosperity CIA we lean heavily into
economic studies economic experts
economic analysis the law of Economics
because the law of Economics is that of
the law of scarcity
one of the first and most underrated
economists out there was actually a
Soviet Economist a guy named kondratiev
kendrazio created what's known as the
chandrati of wave the quadratic
androthia cycle that cycle essentially
puts us it explains the pattern of
Interstate conflict or intra State
conflict where where countries compete
actually go to war with each other
and it puts it on about a 25-year cycle
25 years to a peak in Conflict 25 years
to A Drop In conflict and then as the
wave continues like most waves the
actual uh peak of the Waves expands so
it goes from being 25 years to 25 years
to then 32 years to 32 years and you
start to see this longer slower wave
right but it's still a wave it's still a
waveform
the next peak of conflict according to
kundrativ's wave against the United
States's point of view
happens in about 2024 2025. oh great
so we now have multiple economists
basically saying that there's a peak
coming a peak of conflict coming and
that Conflict for the kandazia wave is a
peak of popular conflict and unpopular
conflicts so we're coming off of an
unpopular conflict right Afghanistan and
Iraq largely turned into an unpopular
Conflict at the end right and the wave
between when that started and when the
next wave is coming is right in that
25-year Mark right so according to
contraceev we are very we are not only
coming up on a period of conflict but it
will be popular
inside the United States so people will
rally behind that conflict that doesn't
mean we're going to win that doesn't
necessarily mean it's going to be in our
best interest but it does mean to your
point earlier that we might see that
moment where everybody kind of comes
together again
I think part of the reason that we were
able to be successful was because of the
same rules of Economics that you laid
out from World War II
our country
hugely unpopular western expansion was
hugely unpopular at the time the Civil
War nobody wants to see the Civil War
again most people would say the Civil
War was a traumatic and horrible you
know loss of life
at the time there was no other option
Abraham Lincoln had no option except to
pursue Civil War because he knew that
the presidents before him had been
working to create a single solitary
nation that had National Security from
coast to coast
we can say it was a fight for states
rights we can say it was a fight for
slavery we can say it was a fight for
lots of things and those are also true
but they may not be the number one
reason why the why the Civil War was so
important the Civil War was so important
because we needed to remain one unified
country from coast to coast to have
American Primacy in the long run
American Primacy is a concept that was
created by Alexander Hamilton really
American privacy is not new there's an
entire Society out there called the
Alexander Hamilton Society that's
focused on preserving the ideals of
Alexander Hamilton and the founding
fathers who all believed that a strong
United States meant a strong world
because they saw and lived through the
oppression of living under a monarchy
right if you look at the top five
wealthiest countries in the world right
now the top five wealthiest countries in
the world
two of them are democracies the other
three are monarchies right
so the idea that democracy is the
solution to all wealth and success
hasn't really been proven yet we're
still outnumbered by monarchies right
so what does the future hold the future
will be will be conflict is coming
multiple economists have pointed to it
you can see the writing on the wall what
my wife and I call the writing on the
wall
conflict is coming what will that
conflict look like is the bigger
question
you talked earlier about how you know
you and I might be of the same ilk when
it comes to are we already engaged in
World War III is world war three coming
up what will that world war look like
there is conflict coming there is no
reason for us to think it will look like
it looked in World War II
if anything conflict has proven to us
that it evolves and changes just like
technology and just like human thinking
right but it's still predictable because
it takes human beings to wage war
I don't think I'm answering your
question very well here but these are
all this is where my brain stage so my
question is do you see this
uh as a a conflict with China does it
become open Warfare is this going to be
over Taiwan like or the Russia Ukraine
thing spills over into something how do
you see this playing out
so my honest my honest anticipation what
I expect will happen is that China will
make a legal move on Taiwan what China
did in Hong Kong was legal first they
changed the laws in Hong Kong they
changed the laws in China which then
changed laws in Hong Kong which made it
legal for them to go in and this and
take Hong Kong by force in 2019 right
before covet hit the whole world watched
and it happened and the whole world
complained and threw a fit and leveraged
sanctions and said it was unfair and
unjust and everything else and then the
Chinese did it anyways and now here it
is 2023 and most people don't even
remember what happened in Hong Kong just
four years ago
now they're watching what's happening in
Ukraine now in Ukraine
some people say that what happened in
Ukraine is that the world rallied behind
Ukraine by giving them weapons and
giving them training and giving them
resources
the most limited resource in Ukraine is
Ukrainian soldiers
it's not tanks or guns or howitzers the
thing that will run out first
is Ukrainian Fighters that's like it's
been it's a shame to me to watch what's
happening because the Ukrainian fighting
force is putting up such a valiant fight
they're doing everything they possibly
can to equip every war fighter to be
worth 10 20 30 50 Russian Fighters right
but that's their most limited resource
they're not going to be able to create
more Russian fighters in the next three
to five years
you just can't you can't turn a
five-year-old into an 18 year old
so that's the resource that's the the
clock that zielinski knows he's fighting
against that he's racing against is not
a clock of fighter jets or or missile
defense systems it's how am I going to
find enough Fighters
and NATO and the West know that they
don't want to put their boots in Ukraine
fighting the Russians because that's all
it would take for the Russians to
basically say hey NATO allies are
killing Russians so now Russia can kill
NATO allies and because Russia is a
nuclear power
they essentially have the same
Pawn like the same trump card that we
had in World War II
so nobody in NATO wants to mess with
that trump card because when you have an
animal cornered yeah it does amazing
things right so what I see happening is
China will make a legal move on Taiwan
what legal play do they have with Taiwan
though they have a number of legal plays
first of all do you know what the
American official American stance is on
Taiwan
something like
um we're we're not going to do anything
but don't like touch them it's so like
bizarrely vague yeah it's called The One
China two systems policy
essentially in the eyes of American
policy Taiwan already belongs to China
interesting so then China also has
acknowledged with Taiwan you have your
own system but you're still part of the
mother country this is Hong Kong 2.0
Hong Kong 2.0 and over the stretch of
like what is it 80 miles from coast to
coast between between Southeastern China
and Taiwan so it's it's sticky man if if
China makes a legislative move that
basically forces the Taiwanese system to
then say you are now communist right
they could have the Legal Foundation to
do that and then a legal attack is very
similar to what they did in Hong Kong
that goes to court systems that doesn't
go to bullets right and then when the
legal system starts to go in their best
interest or in their favor now China has
legal grounds to basically have Chinese
police officers enforce Chinese law
inside Taiwan this whole process what
the hell is the United States going to
do there's no missiles there's no guns
you can drive through the Straits all
you want
it's a legal issue it's not a military
issue
so I anticipate China making a legal
move on Taiwan that will be supported by
key members in the U.N why because how
many of the bricks are in the the
leading countries in the U.N all of them
right if you look at the Ukrainian
conflict now the news media
oversimplifies everything so media says
that the UN passes resolutions that
condemn Russia that's true and the U and
the U.N passes resolutions with a large
majority 140 countries you know condemn
Russia that is also true what they're
not telling you is that the countries
who are not condemning Russia are the
largest wealthiest countries in the U.N
China is not condemning Russia South
Africa is not condemning Russia India is
not condemning Russia right even inside
NATO you have Belgium and Hungary who
are not condemning Russia really so even
NATO is not unified on this whoa right
China's seeing all of this and China's
seeing it for what it really is not for
what American Media is telling the
American people it is the American Media
isn't they're not trying to you know
they're not trying to lead us astray
they're just trying to run a business
they're trying to get people to read
their newspaper click their links see
their ads so that they can have they can
pay their employees the next pay cycle
it's all the media is trying to do it's
not they're not trying to lead us
throwing them down the wrong path so
once there's an administrative Takeover
in Taiwan China has all the rules that
it like all the cover it needs to
basically just shipping to start
shipping National Guard troops uh police
officers even military units over to
Taiwan and now Taiwan belongs to China
in a bloodless War very similar to the
bloodless coups that we've seen multiple
times in places like Thailand or all
over southeast Asia right
that's how I see it happening and I see
it largely happening in the lead up to
the 2024 election because China is going
to benefit from a very confused American
base division during Peak Division and
an electoral cycle wow that's so
distressing because that feels very
plausible
uh okay so we have a lot of business
interests there
so what will our reaction be because my
first thought was our reaction will be
oh maybe that's the best way for this to
happen we can be like ah we don't have
to go and commit our American lives to
it uh they did it just like Taiwan or
sorry just like Hong Kong where we'll
you know rant and Rave and say this is a
problem and how dare you and sanctions
But ultimately be glad that we're not
sending people to die but do we have
enough business interests there that
especially in in you know sensitive
areas like chip manufacturing where we
can't let it go our business interests
with China
are significantly bigger than our
business interests with Taiwan wow
Taiwan has the market cornered on
semiconductors but that's not just for
the United States they have the mark
they have like 98 of the market share in
semiconductor manufacturing who designs
the semiconductors
we do we have all the IP they just have
the plants that's why one of the big
initiatives in Biden's chip Act is to
actually bring
tsmc tmsc forget the name of the country
or after the name of the company the
main manufacturer in Taiwan to actually
bring them to the United States so
they're trying to build manufacturing
plants for the Taiwanese company
here in the flyover states in the United
States so that we can just bring that
tool God this is going to be a
fascinating Stateside 10 to 20 year
period absolutely you just nailed it
right there it is going to be a
fascinating decade to two decades in the
future so that's what I want to focus on
that's what I encourage my clients to
focus on it's not about what happens now
or in the next two years it's about what
are you going to do
so that your family your business your
financial Legacy your individual Legacy
is safeguarded
for what the world could look like 10 to
20 years from now the world could look
like the United States is still the
economic and Military superpower it
could look like that so you may not have
to change much
but according to economists by 2033
China will be the economic superpower
that's not far away guys if you like
that clip with Andrew Bustamante trust
me your brain is going to be melted by
the entire episode you can click here to
check it out you're gonna love it and
this is this is where I believe the the
public disdain for CIA comes from
CIA recruits us another one of the
lessons they tell us