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Language: en
you guys are on something that is just
my absolute Obsession right now and you
make a very bold claim in your new book
you said that the next billion dollar
company will be founded by three people
how is that possible first let me just
say that we're living in a different day
and age the ability to start companies
today that are exponential and the name
of the book is exponential organizations
2.0 the new playbook for 10x growth and
impact it's a series of attributes that
never existed before and uh AI is going
to play the biggest role without
question but it's all the exponential
Technologies Celine yeah if you look
back in history maybe uh 57 years ago it
needed about a 10 000 person company to
create a billion dollar valuation that's
crazy then it dropped to about a
thousand people uh Instagram was 13
people right now we'll get it down to
three people because AI will handle most
of the execution work you'll have a CEO
who will drive vision and product a
product I will focus just on getting
things done in an operations person
that'll handle everything else and you
should just have ai Bots doing all the
finances marketing etc etc as somebody
who's deploying AI as rapidly as humanly
possible and I know that people have a
lot of anxiety around this it's still
for all of ai's immediate uses it still
seems hard to imagine that big leap how
should people be using AI right now if
they want to be on that path so one of
the things I'm doing in the companies
that I'm running or advising or
investing in as I'm saying first of all
every company needs to have what I call
a chief AI officer and it's a role I
made up was teaching at abundance 360
this year and it is not someone who's
building a large language model for you
or writing code for you it's an
individual who understands what's going
on in the terrain because we're seeing
not hundreds or thousands tens of
thousands of startups everybody you know
you can start an AI company now with
literally spare time in your garage
so understanding what's out there what
the modalities are and what you can and
should be using is critical so your
Chief AI officer is scanning The Horizon
understanding it and then advising
members of your team so every part of
your team right there's going to be AI
supporting sales and marketing and uh
and engineering and HR we're all going
to have in the near term an AI co-pilot
right this is an AI that helps you do
your job better because we are so
limited as carbon life forms
But ultimately is going to be able to
operate and do a number of the things
repetitively because we do a lot of
repetitive tasks and AIS are much better
at that um
I think if you've got we've got say a 30
person company every single person needs
to be trained in Ai and using these
chatbot a auto GPT tools and absolutely
augment themselves 10 20 100x I have
said to my company okay everybody here
needs to figure out in your department
what are the tools that exist in Ai and
how can you immediately Implement them
but even that's pretty vague like I'm
just sort of dumping it on them where do
people start like what is the thing you
actually do easy and super specific if
you have an email newsletter that goes
out use chat you PT they'll say how
would I increase the engagement rate
with this email we did that we got a 25
increase feed it the email you feed it
the email yeah
come up with a better headline or put in
Social sharing links throughout it or
say listen I'm in HR go to chatgpt open
it up right now if you hopefully you
have the you know the gpt4 version of it
and say I'm in HR how should I be used
using generative AI in my business it'll
it'll feed you you know give me five
examples or ten examples pick the one
that sounds good give me step-by-step
instructions on how to use this it's you
know it's recursive in that fashion and
so you're going to use AI to help you
learn what you want to know
you know it comes back a lot to mindset
Tom and you need the mindset of a kid
here curiosity absolute play it's like
you know one of the things I'm going to
be doing in my team my PhD Ventures it
runs at buttons 360 and a few others
we're gonna we're setting aside three
days and no homework coming out of these
three days we're gonna go in with a
series of objectives and we're going to
actually crank for three days and
generate all the content all the plans
and you can but it takes time for all of
us to switch from our old habits of how
we do things to new ways so the first
time it's going to take 150 of your time
the next time we'll take 50 and 25 you
talk about mindset the thing I see and
I'm sure you guys have encountered this
is a lot of people they just have so
much anxiety about this is going to
replace me I think about that a lot so
Lisa and I have have put our Fortune
back at risk to build this company and
you've said this a lot but I've said
this a lot skate to where the puck is
going to be not where the puck is the
problem is right now feels like the puck
is teleporting and so it becomes very
difficult to know where that puck is
actually going to be so how do you guys
think about that as and you guys talk in
your book about the fact that the
average company used to be on the S P
500 for like 67 years it's down to 15
we're expecting it to just keep dropping
so
how do we not just get disrupted seven
minutes after we figure out how to use
AI
well I think there's a few different
things going on here but the first is
you should talk about the asteroid
analogy yeah because I think that sets
the framing for what's actually
happening here I view what's going on in
the business world today
similar to the asteroid 20 kilometer
asteroid that struck the Earth 65
million years ago and wiped out the
dinosaurs right the asteroid changed the
environment of us so rapidly so
dramatically that the slow lumbering
dinosaurs who didn't adapt went extinct
and it was the furry little mammals our
ancestors that were agile enough to
adapt that survived and thrived so the
asteroids striking the Earth right now
are exponential Technologies with AI as
the you know the overlord there and it's
just going to change the environment so
rapidly that you need you need agility
you need a team that is agile one of the
things I would I would say is also what
do you own
that is unique
whether it's characters uh in a you know
Disney's characters that they own versus
having a movie distribution system
uh what do you have that's Uniquely
Yours what data do you have what
processes do you have what assets do you
have that as the tech changes you can
take the data on those assets and put it
through the new tech this is my
hypothesis let me know what you think
about this so uh AI is going to generate
a ton of noise
so even as you were saying like hey I'm
an HR person how do I do this or how do
I make this email better everybody's
gonna have access to that same thing and
that lead Google memo about AI has no
mode and AI has no mode and so we're all
going to be able to use this and so as
somebody making a video game and
somebody thinking about IP the real
thing you have to get good at is getting
people to care and so it's that Disney
has gotten people to care about their
characters so when you think about AI
making the creation of art instantaneous
because a big part of what made art cool
before was the sense of I couldn't do
that and so when somebody presents you
with something that you couldn't do
you're like whoa that's so cool and you
have this like really emotional response
now I'm like I could do that or I might
even be able to do something right so
now it's like when I see just a wall of
AI art I my brain still goes to the
characters I care about right so my
thing is
in a world where we are going to get
disrupted incredibly fast in a world
where now the game really is about
making people care how do people break
through the noise and maybe even more
specifically how do you stay emotionally
sober long enough to try to break
through the noise so this goes straight
to the first and most important
characteristic of an EXO which is the
massive transformative purpose right
when you pick a problem that you are
deeply passionate about say curing
cancer you've put all your emotional
energy into that Peter talks about the
emotional connection that gets created
uh no matter what the tool set is or
what the capabilities are your emotional
connection to that and the passion you
bring to it is the thing that will
separate you out from everybody else
because somebody else has to come to
edit with exactly enough the same
passion and have access to the same
tools and that's what it'll win out
that'll be the steadying ship for how do
you navigate this chaotic world is what
fundamental problem do I get excited
about and I'm just going to go after
that problem and stick with it yeah I
think you nailed it time uh the idea of
an exponential org what we lay out is
the number one thing that a entrepreneur
or and you know a more advanced company
needs to do is establish that MTP that
massive transformative purpose and once
that's established then there's a whole
slew of 10 different attributes that
allow you to scale and allow you to
build something but in a world where
there's this abundance of opportunity
right where we're drowning in
opportunity and your attention is your
most important asset here that you're
going to gift a company
being connected to that company's MTP
right so
you know when Elon gets up on stage and
says we're going to build a
multi-planetary species we're going to
Mars we're going to help save the human
race and so forth people connect in
their heart and their mind to that if
some company stands up and says we're
going to provide better shareholder
returns I mean you know you know it's
just this noise this is two big
challenges big companies have first
they're not passion driven in the same
way some are the new breed of
organizations is they don't have an MTP
for example in fact the way this came
about was when we first put the original
version of the book together in 2014 we
scanned 200 unicorns and said how are
they doing it how are they scaling so
fast so the EXO model is not something
we invented we labeled kind of what was
already happening and put a framework
around it and without exception every
single one of these companies that was
moving very fast had this MTP they're
all dedicated to one particular problem
ways solving traffic or Uber everybody
should have a private driver and it acts
as the kind of the North Star the Simon
sinek question of why do you exist Etc
big companies have two problems the
first is they they typically tend not to
be Purpose Driven their brands are
tilting that way more and more but
secondly there's this old economic
theory called kosa's law written in the
1930s it's a nine page paper for which
he won the Nobel Prize this guy called
Ronald coast and he theorizes the big
companies exist because transaction
costs are lower inside the company than
outside and that you can achieve
economies of scale that way okay and we
in this book we declare Costa's law dead
because economies of scale can be
applied to an individual now who can
scale to a global global level and
economies have scaled and the
controlling factors of big companies
prevent you from moving in any kind of
an agile way and so therefore all the
advantages with the single individuals
or small teams with a passion and that's
where we think the future will go okay
so I can I can predict out and anybody
listening to the sound of my voice right
now should be aware that I I very much
have my money where my mouth is and so
my fears are very real
um I um the prediction that I will make
is that AI will make things better for
the masses in ways we just cannot fathom
and it will be absolutely incredible but
it does not care about the individual at
all and so while the consumer will win
I'll be very interested to see what
happens to people building businesses
because they will just come and go they
will get disrupted so fast that it will
begin to ask a new question of
entrepreneurs which is can you dedicate
your life's energy to something you know
will be obliterated in three years
interesting or like like the sand art in
India yeah right wow Jesus you just yeah
that hurts yeah well no but it's
interesting it's it's really it's truly
letting go it's it's it's non-attachment
so one of the underlying principles of
an exponential organization you and I
talked about this when we did our early
podcasts on abundance or bold or Futures
faster is the six D's of an exponential
right when you digitize any product or
service in every single product and
service is or will be digital ties and
if you're a CEO running a company where
your services are not digitized you're
in trouble because someone else is going
to do it to you in the early days the
growth of that product or service is
deceptively slow it's like the first
digital cameras that were 0.01
megapixels the next year is 0.02 then
.04 all look like zero it was deceptive
everyone ignored it
you know 20 doublings it's a million
times better 30 doublings it's a billion
times better and kodak's out of business
right so we go from digitized to
deceptive to disruptive and what happens
you dematerialize demonetize and
democratize so dematerialization is we
don't carry Kodak cameras or film around
anymore they're an app on your phone
right and when things become ones and
zeros the cost of replicating them
is effectively free
and the cost of transmitting them is
effectively free so they're demonetized
I can send my digitized whatever around
the world to a billion people for free
and then it's democratized everyone has
access to it so yes we are heading
towards this massive world of abundance
right where the best education the best
health care uh is provided by an AI
effectively for the cost of electricity
right so it's it's going towards zero
but would anybody go to medical school
anymore
um and by the way it's going to become
our practice to diagnose someone without
AI as your co-pilot probably within the
next five years that's crazy so this is
happening and yeah it's gonna it's gonna
it's gonna flip a bit or two here
because a lot of that well a lot of
wealth is created when you create
something and retain it for yourself and
you sell it off a little bit at a time
or you build a platform that other
people build on top of
but
um I remember I was on stage at
Singulair University I had Astro Teller
who was heading Google's moonshot
Factory and Steve jervetsen on the board
of Tesla and SpaceX he was at he's one
of the top Venture capitalists we're
talking about a future in which AI is
able to iterate on hardware and software
so rapidly that if you announcing your
product or a service someone else has
cracked it replicated and provided a
better version of it you know minutes
later
so what happens when intellectual
property is useless
because I don't want to protect myself
by having IP rates I want to protect
myself by having the best product
available things are getting very much
faster and better
but
it's gonna It's Gonna Change the World
yeah I mean if you if you go take your
analogy then any product or service your
build may be rendered obsolete pretty
quickly right then you lift above that
to go okay then what's the narrative or
story or framing you put around that
that's a little bit longer lasting and
about that are the mindsets right if you
have the right mindset then you don't
care if your MTP is curing cancer and
somebody gets there a little before
you're like yeah somebody got there
fantastic we got we cured cancer awesome
pick another MTP and keep going I don't
think that's going to be the human
response it's the ego it doesn't want
that it is so I I'm going to paraphrase
a guy named Saleem Ismail you guys may
have heard of him uh and he said that
we're gonna need an upgrade to the human
mind or we're not going to be able to
deal with the rate of change and I think
that's really real and right now we
don't have said upgrade to the human
mind and if I haven't gotten yours yet
huh I have not if you if you have in the
box somewhere please by only means give
it to me I would also I'd like to
paraphrase you again and then I'll
actually let you respond
um you said that somebody asked you well
wait a second okay a world of abundance
it sounds amazing but isn't that going
to uh damage GDP and you said yes it's
going to tank GDP yeah uh for those who
don't know what that is basically the
economy so abundance the thing that we
want is going to tank the global economy
should we not be terrified
well it's just one of these transitions
one way I frame it is this next 30 Years
will dictate the next 300 years
like is this going to be a 30 years of
just Terror in the streets Peter will
tell you abundance doesn't mean unicorns
and flowers and thing it it means
opportunity for all I call I say
abundance is not about a life of luxury
for everybody it's about a life of
possibility interesting whoa right so go
go into that look I know I know you very
well Peter and having researched you
Celine my I know you well enough to know
you guys are very much of a similar ilk
uh slim you've said very publicly you
don't think AI is dangerous
um but
walk me through the darker side of that
if if you don't mind indulging that
angle which I know is not your natural
angle but walk me through the the sort
of underlying Terror of possibility is
different I say please and thank you to
Alexa every morning
you know the AI overlords I want them
when they come forward to like remember
me Peter you were always nice to us
that's right one of my ctOS for one of
my companies years ago we asked him
what's the purpose in life and he goes I
want to evolve to the point that my
computer is proud of me and we had no
idea what he was talking about it and
now we're like oh yeah that's what he
meant
um I I think again there's the Dark Side
the dark side is I think the biggest
dark side is malicious use of these
Technologies right some bad actor says
this is let's use this to figure out how
to stop all the power plants
um stop all the medical machines from
running and hack them etc etc
um you know the we worry a lot about
that that we put huge amounts of effort
in this but the data that we have shows
that human beings when given a choice
whether to use good or bad generally
almost always pick good okay I'll give
you a little study they did a study when
eBay and Craigslist became prominent on
okay here's an environment for the first
time where a human being can easily do a
positive strand Doctrine or a fraudulent
one easy to mask my email address put a
Macbook up for sale a photograph of it
and walk off with a thousand bucks so
what's the actual ratio of good to bad
and after researching this quite uh
thoroughly they found that across
multiple systems like this Craigslist
eBay Etc the actual ratio of good or bad
was something like eight thousand to one
okay so there's a thousand positive for
each negative now that tells you that
when we have a new technology like
drones first response is oh my God the
Drone might be loaded up with C4 and
flown to the White House let's ban the
drones or put chips in there regulate
the hell out of it Etc and stop the
drones or stop autonomous cars or
whatever crispr whatever the AI now is
the flavor of the month well what
actually we see if you actually let
anybody use it the data shows that 8 000
people will do the positive thing and
one person it'll be easier to spot that
one person will do the negative thing
the problem is the amplitude of that one
is obviously very much getting much
bigger and so that's of concern but this
has been the same story since the
beginning of time fire can heat our
house and it can burn down yours
biotech problems Etc and we worry about
it it never actually comes to fruition
and maybe I'm just an optimist right
yeah I mean by the way optimists live
seven years longer on the average you
know that right
um I'm not surprised by that but I will
say that there's a new technology
rushing towards us it's going to change
the world uh and I let me let me answer
your question so uh when I think about
the dangers related to Ai and I'm not
gonna you know I think AI is the most
important tool Humanity has ever created
to solve all of our biggest problems no
doubt period exclamation point you know
Big Bright letters having said that are
there dangerous so the dangers can
simply break down into three different
groups one at one end is AI becomes
conscious and decides to squash us and
step on us I find that very unlikely and
a ridiculous thesis I think people have
just seen this in Hollywood way too much
I think the more intelligent something
is
uh honestly the more loving and kind and
pro-life it will be why why it's my
belief it is my belief I have other than
um I see
Humanity becoming as a whole over time
if you look at the numbers right and
we've looked at this from abundance uh
Warfare reducing massively over time
violent death reducing massively over
time access to Freedom increasing over
time I mean the numbers over a thousand
years not over the last five ten twenty
years but over a thousand years and
that's come from educating each other
with books and transportation connecting
us across the world and globalization
and interdependence all of these things
have led to it's hard to remember this
watching the crisis News Network right
CNN every day that's broadcasting every
murder on the planet to you over and
over and over again it's shaping our
neural Nets our brains are neural Nets
that we teach from example after example
and I don't watch the news right I don't
want some editor telling me about yet
another murder or crooked politician got
it and it isn't showing us a fair and
balanced view of what's actually going
on in the world the incredible science
and technology and humanitarian acts of
these things yeah anyway so one phase is
uh AGI you know artificial general
intelligence before you move off that
though so
um what you're describing is human
intelligence and so this is and societal
intelligence
I don't quite know what you mean by that
and what I mean is that societal Norms
organizing around the United Nations yes
people are born of this meat suit the
brain works in a certain way and
computers will not AI will not work in
that same way I have no reason to
believe that yeah very likely won't it
works it works differently
you can reboot your life your health
even your career anything you want all
you need is discipline I can teach you
the tactics that I learned while growing
a billion dollar business that will
allow you to see your goals through
whether you want better health stronger
relationships a more successful career
any of that is possible with the mindset
and business programs and impact Theory
University join the thousands of
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and get started today
at the end of the day you know when we
have these crazy Hollywood scripts that
AI is going to usurp us for our heat
from the Matrix I love The Matrix
they failed on that use of human bodies
I'm sorry I don't know if you agree with
me on that I I do agree with you and I
don't know well enough what their
original intention was but according to
them yes they were forced by the studio
to give a more simplistic answer so I
let them off the hook for okay that's
right but you know other we're coming to
get your water on this planet we're
listen whatever we have on this planet
is infinite in the universe we are a
spec a crumb in a universe filled with
resources and so AI doesn't need to you
know squash Humanity to get these
resources
um
so AGI at its extreme artificial general
intelligence at its extreme I don't
believe is going to be dystopian in
itself
in the middle term uh what I would call
the terrible twos or the teenage years
um maybe there is a case to be made that
in the beginning AI hasn't reached full
sentience doesn't understand the power
of its tools maybe there's a case that
you know it's the baby picking up a rock
and throwing it out the window not
understanding what it's you know the a
teenager with a BB gun and a squirrel
yes
that's that's the best but the third
element which is the most likely is the
benevolent uh individual it's it's the
Bad actors using technology and so
sometime in the next 18 months two years
there may well be not a uh a retrovirus
released but an AI virus that goes out
and shuts down power plants or shuts
down Wall Street and something and
causes a economic hurdle
um that's not the AI those are the
humans using that tool just to be very
clear there's a great book by mogadot
called scary smart came out about a year
ago do you know that book I had I
haven't read the book but I had Mo in
the show recently yeah MO is is
fantastic and
um and he basically says listen I want
you to think about AI as a child we're
giving birth to as Humanity
and that child is being taught by its
parents now if you think about Superman
who lands in Kansas wherever he landed
and he's picked up by the Kent and it's
a loving family he learns good ethics
and morals and he becomes a superhero
for good what if the what if Superman
had landed in the Bronx and part of a
drug lord uh ring you know and had
become the super villain you make me
want to write that story as soon as he
started I was like wait a second that's
a great plot there so the question is we
humans how are we teaching this new uh
life form coming into existence I like
Neil Jacobs times framing please which
is he goes okay you're worried about an
AI uh getting more and more access to
information uh becoming Anonymous making
its own decisions and starting to run
amok out in the world we go yeah he goes
We call we have a precedent for that we
call them children and we raise kids and
we figured out ways of giving them
timeouts or jail or whatever and he
thinks constructively that we think
we'll find ways of bounding what AIS can
do now
not sure I agree with them yeah that
seems super naive to me so when I I am
optimistic by nature and my default
setting is just hey this is all going to
work out somehow and as soon as we wrap
this episode I'm going to be pushing my
team to integrate AI more I'm going to
be paying more money for AI and just
feeding that beast but at the same time
it does give me pauses I try to think
through like how you really deal with
the alignment problem so to me there's
two really big dangers for AI danger
number one and this is the one that
scares me the most but I'm going to set
it aside for a minute and that's just
humans lose meaning and purpose just AI
can do everything better than they can
it just becomes so defeating that you're
just like oh God like I've worked really
hard to get good at this thing like this
I tell the story all the time I can't
remember if I've told it in an episode
but uh I employ a bunch of artists and I
once sat with one of them and for like
an hour he was just trying to get the
perfect like semi-circle and he was just
doing it over and over and over and over
and at the time I oh man yeah like
you've got to do that like to be able to
articulate what's in his mind he has to
be able to control his hand and I was
like wow I really get that
now I'm like you wasted your time like
hey I can do that like does not even
have to think about it and he is an
anomaly so he runs out and he's now
learning how to use AI to do some of the
tasks that we want to do artistically
okay amazing we'll set that aside for
now meaning and purpose the other one is
the paper clip problem so so now you
just have like when I think about what
will a machine end up optimizing for my
gut instinct is unless you go way out of
your way to get really clever they will
optimize for efficiency of reward so
whatever you tell it is the thing to go
for we'll call that the reward and then
it's just going to find the most
efficient way to get to that and so we
have to be so careful about how we
Define yeah yeah but don't XYZ and then
to the idea of it being like a child yes
but it's like a child that has access to
nuclear capabilities you need to build
in ethics and morals as a fundamental in
that situation so it doesn't use as
World supplies to build a bill you know
infinite number of paper clips
um and it's it's true
and we have a limited time to do that in
you know I think
it's Google developed sort of large
language models in 2017 2018 and didn't
release them because they were worried
they wanted to build the framework first
and they were maybe overthinking it it's
interesting um we were talking about
YouTube just before the show here uh you
know Google had Google videos going
uh way before YouTube
and Google videos wasn't succeeding I
guess I think it was just too many
lawyers involved and you can't show that
you can't do this and then Chad Hurley
starts YouTube on as a credit card and
then Google buys it 18 months later for
1.65 billion dollars right why because
you know Google videos was like a linear
and YouTube was like exploding
exponentially and they they jumped on
that and so
there's a question of
you know which path you take do you take
the the careful path or do you take the
Catholic the path of least resistance
and unfortunately we humans tend to take
the path of least resistance
yeah I don't know if I'd say
unfortunately and this is where I really
get I don't know how to Think Through
the problem of AI because when I heard
elon's assessment of it which is that AI
is basically a demon summoning Circle
and we're summoning it like crazy
despite his best efforts to get people
to slow down and I can't bring myself
like when people sign the hey we should
stop thing my immediate response was the
the this this is a one-way street it's
like so far out of the back yeah like it
does not make sense like you could slow
it down in a region but you're not going
to be able to slow it down full stop and
so I am I'm really of two minds I am
both like I think this is going to be
amazing and yet how does this not end
the human race the question is whether
the human race is the end-all and be-all
right yeah but don't you feel weird even
saying that out loud well no because
we've been evolving on this planet for
three and a half you know life started a
half a billion after the earth started
so four billion years we've been
evolving and we went from prokaryotes to
eukaryotes to multicellular life forms
to eventually primates and now humans
we're a step in the transitory process
now I'd like to preserve our steps by
the way the same thing is true for
climate control or climate crisis right
it's like
the climate's always been changing
throughout human history
we're changing it now but what we really
want is the climate to stay the way it's
been for the last couple hundred years
because that's where we built our cities
so we just want to freeze the way the
world is right now and I understand that
and we should do that with climate to
the maximum of our ability but we also
want to freeze Evolution now one of the
scenarios of course is we're going to
merge with technology and we are right
all of us have our cell phones within
meters of our body and I didn't plant
into my brain if I could and so the
question is are we going to upload
ourselves are we going to
um you know create brain computer
interfaces allows me to think in Google
and know Quantum quantum physics I'd
love it I mean I would do it a lot of
people won't but we're speciating what
we're doing I think of this very simply
we we the negative side of us the
amygdala side the media Etc you end up
with the sky Skynet Matrix type of
Terminator scenario if we're lucky we're
pets if we're unlucky we're food right
kind of goes that way
um uh cheers you don't see that in
actuality as we developed technology we
augment The Human Experience with
technology we don't replace it is what
we've seen and how we build uh now I I
think of the resolution of this as a
symmetry problem we're assuming that
some AI will become malevolent and then
do horribly damage things we have no
power to control it let's also not
forget that we have the equal
opportunity to say on AI hey if you see
something bad fight it so what you'll
end up with is uh AI is trying to do bad
stuff and yeah it's trying to do good
stuff fighting it up and I think that's
where we'll end up and over in over time
we'll figure out okay we've got to give
more resources over here or over there
and we'll work on it you know you always
end up with this asymmetry assumption
and I think that's the wrong assumption
you mentioned the movie her I did not oh
you did not let me mention that you are
it's one of my favorite science fiction
AI movies right if you haven't seen it
fantastic those listening um and it's an
AI basically evolves as a personal
assistant and it's a story about a guy
who's depressed who falls in love with
his AI who helps him get over his
depression and and that's sort of like
in the underlying story but towards the
end of the movie what occurs is the AI
um announces that they're leaving
uh we're sort of like bored with you
here in humanity we're off to explore
the universe which I think is a much
more likely scenario that in advance
enough AI has no reason uh to to hurt
the uh to hurt Humanity in fact every
reason to potentially protect us and
support us as its creator but there's
we're living you know it's interesting
right uh uh the web Space Telescope is
teaching us about we're you know 100
billion stars per Galaxy and we're in a
uh Universe of on the order of 2 to 20
trillion galaxies right it's insane
there's massive amount out there now
this is where the final piece of this is
the mindset we always we're always
coming at this from a scarcity mindset a
zero-sum game mindset when you see that
there's infinite energy and infinite
capability out there then an AI is going
to go okay where am I going to find the
easiest thing it's going to be out there
and they're going to go find it solar
energy they'll build solar plants and
they'll get all the energy you need from
that now I know that you know physics
well uh uh so are you making the base
assumption that AI once it hits super
intelligence will be able to solve for
folding time and space and so it's
trivial to get to wherever it needs to
go
now we need psychedelics to process this
conversation
um I who knows uh I'm I I believe that
those are kind of constructs that keep
us in three-dimensional management but
isn't that seems to be writing in that
comment that would almost need to be
true for that argument to make sense or
I would say if you're looking for a
massive amount of The Rare Earth
elements to build chips or the ability
to capture as much solar it's not going
to be on the surface of the Earth you'd
go to the asteroids which are planetary
cores and you'd mine the materials there
you'd set up your your solar collection
you know around the orbit of mercury
you'd optimize around that now is there
you engineer around it you know you find
substitutes you know what people say oh
my God solar panel but there's only so
many silicon panels we can build etc etc
well there's a new material called
perovskite which is like almost just
like a salt it's abundant conducts solar
energy and we're learning now how to
leverage that it won't need solar panels
that Ray talks about that I think coming
to play here and just keep progressing
us you're gonna have to walk people
through an S curve and who Rey is
uh an s-curve is a typical exponential
growth curve so in the beginning we saw
the first computers used relays and you
would have slow deceptive growth they'd
go into this exponential growth where
they'd start skyrocketing and then
they'd run out of capability and they'd
fall off and it made like a letter s but
while you're using relays to design and
use your computers you use those
computers to create the next generation
of computers which used uh vacuum tubes
and the vacuum tubes could then take
over from the relays and then the vacuum
tubes ran out of capability and the
transistor came on and then the
integrated circuit came and then the
multi-dimensional integrated circuit
came so basically one technology runs
out of steam but enables you to build on
the next technology and so those are
s-curves or nested s-curves this was the
basis of Ray's observation
the law of accelerating returns that if
you have an information based paradigm
once you start a doubling pattern it
just keeps going because these nested
s-curves hop from technology to
technology to technology we're reaching
the end of the life cycle of integrated
circuits now if you read the Press
everybody's like oh that's the end of
Moore's Law that's it Etc and that
article's been coming out for 60 years
and we keep finding ways around it now
we have a bunch of Technologies
clustering at the edge of that 3D chip
design Optical Computing Quantum
Computing Etc they're ready to take it
to the next level and so we find this
consistently in technology once you see
that doubling pattern starting it just
keeps going and this raised as one of
the few brains that can kind of look out
and and say this is what's going to
happen if we push this just a moment
more about Ray so uh Ray is um first of
all he wrote the forward to our new book
exponential organizations 2.0 uh he is
co-founder of Singularity University
with us
um he is a director of engineering he's
the futurist at Google which is we'll
say something unto itself right and uh
he realized that that the law of
accelerating returns is this idea that
technology since the stone ax has
enabled the next generation of
technology in the Next Generation
technology and it just keeps going I
think most important to realize is he's
got if you look in Wikipedia he's got a
published 86 accuracy rate in predicting
the future which is which is crazy so
his prediction is important for this
conversation human level AI by 2029
right which means that a day later it's
superhuman uh AI uh brain computer
interface being high bandwidth
connecting your neocortex 100 billion
neurons in your brain to the cloud in
the early 2030s right so those are two
important points
uh the the key thing and by the way are
we our chat bot that interfaces with our
book to make it a living book uh we got
talked to rain we're going to rename the
chat about Ray k
um because he's he's the Pioneers so
much of this technology and thinking
um so now people will interact with
things that in a different way and the
whole challenge is it's like building
businesses in the 20th century you were
building on a scarcity model and you
built top-down hierarchical pyramid
style command and control structures to
grab a market grab as much market share
as you could figure out ways of
launching new products and services in
that market Etc and all of that worked
really well in the 20th century as we
have an information based World
um we need to architect our
organizations in totally different ways
and this is the big difference
differentiator between old style
organizations linear versus exponential
organizations and we now have the data
to show that this is a pervasive
Paradigm that will be around the book's
been out for close to 10 years now the
original the original yeah so Peter and
I kind of collaborated deeply on uh back
then and so now we've got this
definition and the model for how do you
organize in a world of exponential
Technologies and a great um kind of
example of this is the music industry
you used to have eight major music
studio selling cassettes selling CDs
selling a scarcity model right ten
dollars an album or whatever and then
you digitize music all the eight pretty
much disappear and now you have two
platforms iTunes and Spotify selling you
abundance on a subscription model it's
very clear that Healthcare education
Transportation energy will all follow
the same path and we're starting to see
it now Teslas with uh you'll be picked
up and pay per kilometer to be taken
somewhere Uber's kind of broaching the
edges of that so we see industry after
industry moving to this new model and
what we've been identifying and
Gathering the data on it is what are the
attributes and characteristics of this
model
so before we dive too deep into that I
want to go back to this idea of
um what you call speciation appreciation
yes so there was as far as I can tell
from elon's own words there was a bit of
a breakup between him and Larry Page I
was there really and so he what Elon
said was basically when he said that I
was being a speciesist by saying species
speciesist by saying that
um you know I didn't just want to hand
things over to AI uh that's where he was
like okay wait this is this has gone too
far and that's why when you said that
that was how I responded was like whoa
like I get it but there is something
uncomfortable about the idea of sort of
saying that we're passe I don't know the
right way to that we're that we're
evolving and uh we have been in our
evolving we're going from evolution by
natural selection which is Darwinism to
evolution by human Direction by whatever
you want to call that what does that
mean well we've been doing it right now
we have been evolving all of our crops
right we we take biology and make it do
our bidding you know an ear of corn
today compared to what it was you know
500 years ago it's ridiculous the year
of corn looked like a scraggly little I
don't know it was one inch one inch long
and I think this giant ear of corn or
look at these giant strawberries we have
or the species of dogs or the chickens
we have how many chickens are on the
planet today I do not 38 billion
chickens whoa holy moly right wow
amazing anyway I just that's an aside
but so we have been evolving everything
we humans have a huge footprint on this
planet and we're evolving ourselves
um we're evolving I mean I Outsource
much of my cognitive ability to my phone
or Chachi BT or Google whatever the case
might be
and uh it is happening you can go
and live in the forest and not use any
Tech if you want
but very few people do that
so what does this mean uh if you have a
choice to be able to do a number of
things to enhance your ability
right A lot of my work as you well know
is in extending the healthy human
lifespan how do I add 20 30 healthy
years of my life to intercept the
Technologies that's going to reverse our
aging right and that's a whole other
conversation
um and I believe we're going to get
there but I also want to increase my
cognitive capacity capacity so my phone
I'll hold up my phone here right when I
use my phone to do something interesting
like um
look at images and faces and translate
whatever my phone gathers the
information and then it sends the
information on the 5G Network to the
edge of the cloud where the hard work is
done and the answer comes back to the
phone
the processing isn't done necessarily on
the phone it's done on the cloud
and in the same way right now we have a
limited size of our brains 100 billion
neurons 100 trillion synaptic
connections and our brains can't get
bigger otherwise our moms would not give
birth to us
but what we can do is we can do the same
thing our phones do and send our desires
or interest to the cloud have it
processed and get the answer back and so
that is one future for brain computer
interface another feature is we take our
Essence and upload it to the cloud
uh I don't know when what problem does
that sell for you though well actually
it gives you it gives you your scale and
Pace because our brains are limited here
right and our memories are limited here
without any augmentation and this has
been happening actually for about 40 or
50 years if you look at the internet the
first thing we did was we put the
world's data on the Internet it's now
the memory of the world now with all the
sensors the internet has become the
nervous system for the world so we're
like basically extending the organism
outside the human species into this
thing called the internet as we add more
processing and move our brains to it now
you all have an AI and a Godly new
speciation type of thing now you can get
worried about that or afraid of that or
freaked out about it or you can say
natural process has been going on for
billions of years this is just another
step in that process man you guys it's
interesting this really hits you guys
differently than it hits me yeah okay so
uh talk to me I don't intuitively agree
about the internet becoming our nervous
system help me understand that
so when you need um when you need to
remember something you want a memory so
you want information stored somewhere
that you can retrieve and now with all
those servers that we have around the
world we have Access Wikipedia for
example we have access to the world The
Next Step once you if you want to if I
step on a nail a memory doesn't help me
I need a nervous system to say Lift foot
scream I'll run for a Band-Aid so the
instant response and the agility
response you need a nervous system for
this is Uber calling your Uber as part
of the nervous system right this is
sending an email or making a phone call
and asking uh inform you know or an
x-price team sensing a wildfire and
going quick put it out right away right
so this is that feels super accurate
okay so real-time sensing and our bodies
operate like this our bodies our cells
are have receptors and they're scanning
for things but when the right thing
comes why they pick it up there's a
whole bunch of information theory around
this you see this happening at the
individual level or at the societal
level it's a wildfire thing that feels
let me give you a systemic thing we're
heading towards a world of a trillion
sensors right your phone has dozens of
sensors on it right now an autonomous uh
waymo Google's autonomous car driving
down the road is got lidar and radar and
cameras and it's picking up gigabits of
data as it goes down the road everything
is being imaged right so I want you to
imagine you're a fashion designer and
you want to decide what your next
fashion show should have and what is
trending you could go and ask your AI
listen look at the cameras on Madison
Avenue and tell me what's trending in
terms of fashion right now as people are
walking down the street what colors
what's hem length what hats what
whatever and now can you correlate that
to any kind of AD campaign that's
occurred in the last few months to see a
signal to noise ratio again we're
heading towards a world where you can
know anything you want anytime you want
anywhere you want
how's that hit you
uh it that one gets me excited so when I
think about so I think about it so
that's the nervous game developers
standpoint which is maybe different I
don't know how this plays into what you
guys are thinking about but here's the
fantasy that I live in that the only
thing that keeps me awake at night is
how quickly someone else is going to do
something even cooler uh but right now I
feel like I have the coolest take on
this which is that I'm sure you guys saw
Google and Adobe announced core AR where
basically everything that Google has
mapped which is everything but the ocean
floor you can now overlay AR 3D assets
on that anywhere and it's only going to
get better insane and so my whole thesis
on gaming is that it becomes a thing I
call borderless entertainment where
you'll hand the game back and forth from
the console to reality and back and so
you know once we've got our Apple like
our glasses I mean it just will be by
the way coming soon oh for sure for sure
like in the next six months or something
no no no Monday oh it's announced no no
they actually said it's the glasses
though or yes do they have a big
announcement no no no no no I have a
thing I have a party I'm going to
to go and grab them and try them you
want to join me yes what okay a hundred
percent I want to join you I will I'm a
hosting duct tape myself to your shin
okay to make sure that you can't leave
me behind okay you are invited wow
luckily he has two shins the other one
will leave for you oh no yeah please
I'll give you some duct tape uh that's
insane so this is yeah this gets very
exciting so the idea of being able to
scan everything read that data uh is
incredibly interesting when it when it's
humans in control and leveraging it to
do something amazing I love it the most
and I the way that I see AI the way that
I sort of jokingly explain it but I'm
only half kidding is that phase one is
that there's gonna be
um humans that learn how to use AI are
gonna just absolutely smash humans that
rebel against it and don't use it and so
I'm certainly trying to be in that camp
phase two is going to be what I'll call
the temporary Utopia where it's like hey
abundance everything's amazing and then
phase three is we're all dead and we're
either all dead because something just
goes absolutely horribly wrong and you
get the adversarial system loses once
and the editor editor catastrophic thing
is is so massive or that we're just
evolved out of the picture
um and maybe not in a bad way maybe it's
uh it's wonderful and we merge with
technology or whatever
um it's interesting I can very easily
put on an optimistic hat but I can I
have to take off my pessimistic hat to
do it yeah listen here first of all
let's take this back to reality we're
living in a game this is this is a nth
generation simulation do you really
believe I really believe that funny
we'll do that just the math says just
just the just the reality I like I like
your framing you're like the world is
too goddamn interesting for this
knockout at the 99 we're at the 99th
level of the game right now right the
odds and and the ability what I've seen
so I introduce you to Iman mushtak
um right and what he's doing at
stability uh and being able to render
getting to a point very soon of
rendering a photorealistic video
experiences that you can go into and
live in and the exp