Kind: captions
Language: en
how do we make sure it doesn't kill us
well how does it make sure it doesn't
enslave us or how does it make sure that
it doesn't give us Eternal suffering and
I realized this could be the real thing
that unlocks Humanity AI is not going to
replace humans humans with AI will
replace humans that don't use AI
AI is thrilling it's very exciting but
there is a non-zero chance that it poses
a existential threat to the human race
so over the next three to five years how
disruptive do you think it will be and
what are people not prepared for I think
that's an excellent question so you know
the future is always hard to predict an
existential is a big word existential
means no more humans so I personally
think the AI will be absolutely fine as
a base case it'll be like that movie her
if it ever gets this artificial general
intelligence like humans are kind of
boring goodbye and thanks for all the
gpus but you could be wrong because what
we're doing is creating something that's
more capable than us in narrow fields
and the question is does that generalize
and then become
viral
we've seen an instance of covid and that
expansion we've seen programs that can
explode nuclear reactors like stuxnet
and others what happens if you start
combining these and you get a
misalignment so it's got a strange
objective function
our organizations already are like slow
down my eyes
you know and like Germans are the most
sensible people that we probably know
and yet they committed the Holocaust and
we see this over and over again where
organizations chew up people what if an
AI
takes over an organization
and then decides to do something
disruptive or something terminal such as
creating a virus
we don't know about that but that's at
the extreme when we look at impact we
have the Mormon day
the more mundane is
what happens to programmers when
everyone becomes a programmer just like
photographers you know now you can take
amazing pictures with your thing what
happens when Google's med-pom 2 model
now can outperform doctors and medical
diagnosis
but also empathy according to the latest
paper in nature
this is a fundamental reworking of
information flows that's going to be
massively disruptive and deflationary
even with what we have now with no more
advances as it becomes Enterprise ready
and we have a Continuum from that
disruption to the productivity enhances
to potential existential threat if we
keep doing the models as we do now which
is we're not exactly sure how they work
or their capabilities but we keep
building anyway now I want to get very
specific about what the level of
disruption is going to be so when I look
out at this and I think about okay we're
creating something that is going to be
smarter than we are certainly in a
narrow way but possibly in a more
General way but even if it's just narrow
is there going to be any job function
that isn't going to be at a minimum
augmented by AI I think if you look at
the employment share of Industry
something like oil and gas has like
three percent it's mostly like building
giant machines
this how massively affected by this AI
at the edges yes things like programming
where you're talking to computers
massively
I mean now basic programming the bar is
Raising fast fast fast and so you've got
everything from knowledge work to heavy
industry I think it affects just about
everything but some areas far more than
others the two areas that I think will
affect the most are probably Healthcare
and education
neither of those are fit for purpose
we're in America we know that you know
but across the world no one's really
happy with their kids schooling and
again medical care we all if anything
goes slightly wrong outside the norm we
all know how frustrating it is we can
finally have personalized education and
Health Care at a fraction of the price
and the two biggest drivers of U.S
inflation over the last decade
educational Health Care they make up
about 80 of the increase
so that will be disruptive and then like
I said any type of knowledge work will
be disruptive and we're not sure enough
those work because when so my own self
uh what we do is education that's a big
part of it but also just content
creation and so when I look at the fact
that we can already clone my voice yeah
we can already create a tombot that will
answer questions I have answered before
in a very similar fashion to how I will
answer them in our video game Flow we're
already making 3D objects which so when
we looked at I don't know two months ago
I thought okay this is still 12 to 18
months away 45 days later we're using it
actively in our pipeline
um you've got text to video which still
a little awkward but it's getting better
insanely fast we do all of our concept
art now in
um in AI so we have as a company that
doesn't even have like an AI expert on
board we're just learning as we go we're
already deploying it like crazy and when
I look out not even you know three years
when I look out a year all of this stuff
starts to very rapidly become a
centralized point and so we're already
saying I don't need to hire more people
I just need to make my people more
efficient yeah and so that
an entertainment company didn't even
make the list that you just said so
there's a lot of people that I think are
going to get disrupted by this uh that
may not be like the most extreme but
how far down do you see this trickling
anything you can do in front of a
computer
basically
goes away or just becomes augmented the
ball lifts the quality expectations are
higher
AI is not going to replace humans humans
with AI will replace humans that don't
use AI because you can see that in your
workflows right now there was a paper by
open AI where they estimated 15 to 50
percent of tasks get automated or
improved and so you know it affects
people in different ways you have a
company where you've built a culture and
you again you're building 3D assets it
becomes amazingly more efficient we just
released uh we contributed and
collaborated on a 10 million 3D object
data sets so by next year you'll be
generating 3D literally live in a couple
of years you'll have HD movies we can
finally remake Game of Thrones season 8
and other such travesties you know
but the speed of this is something
whereby it's happening in every media
type at the same time and it's easy to
use
web3 had some great ideas but it tried
to create a system outside the existing
system and all the money was made and
lost at the interface this is just so
seamless because there's no friction
your mum can use this technology you can
use this technology you don't need to be
an expert because it came and was
trained from our content and our
Collective content as it were and now
it's just easy to implement and use
so I think this is the big
differentiator between this and other
massive advances because they required
infrastructure the internet there was
the big lift up you know you had the
consumption period of web 2 and the cost
of consumption dropped to zero now the
cost of creation is dropping to zero and
humans plus AI can massively outperform
humans that don't yep it's a forcing
function which means everyone has to use
it and this again is dual in that it can
be disruptive but it can also create
massive value
yeah so I'll agree with that I think
that so I guess let me lay out my whole
thesis for you and for everybody
listening because I want to take us
through what I think is very real Doom
and Gloom and I'm not doing it to be a
naysayer I'm doing it because I think
these are going to be the things we have
to contend with and if people go into
this blindly which I think they're doing
right now I think most people are
burying their head in the sand they are
not paying attention to this and they're
going to wait until something really
forces their hand and by then it's too
late yeah the way that I put that is
this is like covered before Tom Hanks
yes very well said everyone's talking
about this your mom's talking about this
but the Tom Hanks and the NBA made it
real
very true and then we had a very poor
response which I have a feeling will be
very similar to what we do now yeah okay
so here's how I see this going I think
right now for the next year let's call
it uh it's gonna be you need to learn
how to use it this will be your window
to get efficient companies probably
aren't going to start lopping people off
yet but I'll just say within my own
company so when I think about filmmaking
I went to film school so I'm I'm very
experienced in this flow and even in a
3D World to create uh let's say a short
cinematic so it's like a mini movie but
done digitally
I mean you might have 35 people touch
that thing from the creation of the
assets through the moving of the camera
special effects you might have 50 people
touch that and if that really does
become text to Output Now 50 people
become one yeah and so when you get a 50
to 1 ratio in certain areas obviously
it's not going to be like that
everywhere but when you have certain
areas that go from 50 to 1 take
programmers I've heard you say Pro there
will be no programmers because writing
code is just a way to talk to a computer
and if you have ai that will interface
with the computer for you why would you
ever need to write code so
that that's going to steam roll through
society that is just going to mow people
over so again I'll give them 12 months
but even in my own company if you're not
actively trying to find a way to
integrate it into your job function I'm
already looking at you sideways a year
from now if you're not really good at
either documenting how it is completely
useless in your job function or showing
how you're using it we will find
somebody that can do it I'll be shocked
if a year from now we don't have a head
of AI so three years from now I think
this has created a crisis of meaning for
a lot of people and I don't know if you
remember that the whole learn to code uh
thing where it was like Hey ai's going
to put drivers out of work they're going
to be the first to go and everybody's
like teach them how to code
now the way people responded to that
always confused me because that was the
right answer at the time now knowing
what I know about code replacing not so
much but you have to go learn a new
skill there there is no other option
other than going on the Dole right so
you're either gonna learn something new
or you're just gonna forfeit your career
basically so
I what what do you think about that do
you agree that that is a very real thing
that's going to sweep through I I do
agree I think that again we're not sure
exactly how this is going to pan out but
probably the best mental model I figured
out to think about this technology it's
like really talented grads that
occasionally go a bit funny
they can draw they can code they can
make 3D models how would your business
be affected if you could push a button
and infinite grads came out how would
your personal life your society and this
is why I think it's quite deflationary
the only question is can we create new
jobs to make up for that
and that's difficult because you still
think we can I doubt we can to be honest
I think this is an e-commeric disruption
that's far bigger than covid and the
important thing here is covered you have
the disruption that everything bounced
back you're at record employment now and
things like that with this there's a lot
of never the same again
it's like you talk to your kid's school
teacher
I can't set essays for homework anymore
because of chat GPT and there's no way
to stop that so what is never the same
again and it's happening everywhere all
at once so this technology isn't just
like you know there's a bar of Entry
where you needed to have a modem you
know you need the latest smartphone or
something like that it has an embedded
base that it's seamlessly going into
look how fast Microsoft Implement on the
consumer side but Enterprise is not
ready yet it's like the iPhone 2g stage
you just got copy paste and next year
and the year after you suddenly at the
iPhone 10.
you know entire app stores get built
because of the demand because it's
valuable What's Happening Here Again
with the comparison to web3 you had to
bootstrap value because it wasn't
valuable and you hope the value would
come there's product Market fit today
you're using it in your own company and
so this is one of my big concerns and
that's one of the reasons I decided to
do open source so I could stimulate
growth
you know because I think the only thing
that can basically fill the Gap is if we
stimulate entrepreneurs to create brand
new businesses brand new jobs so I think
demand will stay for a while demand for
what demand for good things good assets
with the way that money flows around the
economy so I was speaking at can a few
weeks ago film festival and you know I
love movies my first job I was a movie
reviewer you know really yeah uh Bish
independent film Awards rain dance Film
Festival other things I never begin to
video game investing I did not know that
you were a film critic I love stories
that's how I kind of understood people
because my Asperger's and other things
and so I said to this the video game
industry has gone from 70 billion to 180
billion over the last decade and the
average Metacritic score has gone from
69 to 74 percent
the average movie is 6.4 on IMDb for the
last decade
and the industry has gone from 40
billion to 50 billion
what happens when you can make better
movies I think the market expands
because the limiting factor is awful
movies in my opinion
all right let me run something by you
yeah okay so I have I have a really dark
view of uh not the next 12 months so
call it year two to year six so it'll be
uh a three to four year sort of span
where I think there there's going to be
emotional Devastation and probably
economic Devastation but even if the
economic Devastation doesn't happen
because of productivity gains I think
the emotional Devastation is going to be
hard to come back from and I think that
as the emotional Devastation sets in the
government is going to try to regulate
to protect people's jobs and there
you're going to get like some real
weirdness I also think kids are going to
have a junior year existential crisis of
what do I do how do I future proof
myself what is the world going forward
look like I think there could be a
massive loss of enthusiasm where a
feeling of malaise settles over young
people who are just like why bother I'm
I'm just going to get destroyed by AI AI
they're going to be able to do it better
than me okay so in the movie industry
specifically and this is indicative of a
big problem that I think that we have
coming and I think the problems really
stack individual and societal yeah so at
the individual level the big problem
you're going to have is this massive uh
massive fractionation of right now
movies are even less now than they were
when I was a kid movies were it's only a
few big movies for the year now they're
gonna Niche down if anybody can type out
a movie in you know take them 20 minutes
to write the prompt and then maybe a day
to render who knows how fast that's
going to get so now all of a sudden you
can make a Hollywood quality film for an
audience of one
and once you start doing that now it's
what does that do to the industry I
think it it erases it I don't think the
industry changes I think it goes away
yeah I think there's a few kind of
components here right so the cost of
Music consumption went to zero you saw
the Spotify model yeah you still have
music stars
you've got even more crap music now kind
of coming and hitting Spotify and other
things but people rise to the top you
know just like you see top podcasters
top other creators I think that'll
continue because people like common
stories
yes okay so this is a very interesting
idea so let's stick with music for a
second
music is still hard to make it's easier
to make than it was before it's also
still hard to get people's attention but
music now is no longer a shared thing so
music is part of what led me to the
conclusion that I'm at now which is man
as kids it used to be you were either
into the mainstream pop and there was
you know seven to ten hot bands at one
time or you were into the alternate pop
and there was seven to ten hop bands in
that Arena and you you fit into one or
the other bucket there wasn't the
infinite buckets now you can find kids
that are 25 and they listen to Frank
Sinatra uh and I'm I'm always tripped
out by that so they don't even have
their own sort of shared lexicon of what
music they're into it's it's all
spreading really wide so it's really
wide and an inch deep yeah I think it's
really one inch deep and you see the
primary methods of monetization are
tools merchandising Community
effectively you know this is the
interesting thing about nfts when they
took off and bounce down and things like
that it was the quickest way to join a
community even if it did have bad
incentive design so in an era where you
can create anything something becomes
important what that something is we have
to find out now right because again I
think it's some common stories but I
could be wrong I think the deeper thing
that you said was this crisis of meaning
where is my path forward what is an
American Dream we're quite privileged
those are probably listening to this and
that's one here most people don't really
care about this technology I think on a
survey 17 of people had heard about chat
GPT last month
how is that possible well a third of the
world still doesn't have internet
that's terrifying but again like it is
kind of average 1.5 million people still
use AOL
you know like fair enough so we kind of
look at it but there's something that
can reverberate very very quickly and
then as you said there's a sense of
malaise because
you're not sure what's happening
and again the future becomes uncertain
and when the future is certain things
are stable you decide based on risk you
do a probability estimation in your own
head this is the percentage of that
percentage of that and then you optimize
for that we do well uncertainty you
minimize for regret given these options
what am I going to regret least and
suddenly there are no options
again I'm at school programming and then
programming's disrupted what's it going
to be I'm not sure and some people will
throw themselves in and they'll tool
themselves up and they'll become 10
times programmers
other people won't
and they'll be left behind and so I
think this is a real question that comes
at a time when again being in America
I'm from Britain but what is America
what does America stand for what are the
values these are some things that I
don't think America knows now I think
you've seen increased polarization from
free consumption and now as you get free
creation and you'll be hearing all sorts
of stuff fake news and more
what are people really going to think
and I think again this is a real
concernity said from an individual to
community to a society level because a
lot of people don't have an anchor
anymore and that's really scary
so how do you think that we process
through all of this
I'm not sure I think that's why we
needed to broaden the conversation
that's why I'm the only AIC here that
assigned both of the letters saying we
need to take a pause and broaden this
because as an example you mentioned
rodness brought in discussion get more
people involved we need to get more
people involved we need more points of
view because this affects us all it
shouldn't just be a few Tech CEOs that
control this and you shouldn't have to
trust that we do the right thing
because our models we make them once
they go everywhere
right again that what's the r naught of
generative AI
it's off the charts right we've never
seen anything like this it incubates
them boom and it comes for good and for
real the give you the example regulation
when we first started talking to
Regulators they were like how should we
regulate it
now it's a question of them asking us
how are we going to keep up if we
regulate it
because other jurisdictions won't what
do you say to that
I say you should still regulate it
because it has some real dangers and
harms and we have to work to mitigate
those you can't just have a
laissez-faire approach to this
because people will take it and they
won't be able to help themselves I'll
give you an example meta Facebook right
we all know the classic kind of stuff
they had a study where they had a
hypothesis 600 that if you see sad of
things on your timeline will it make you
post sad of things
so they took six hundred thousand of
their users and tried to make them
sadder and guess what if you see side of
things you post out of things
what do you think is going to happen now
that they have generative AI on threads
and things like that
and they can hyper Target you hyper
personalize it and whack Scarlett
Johansson's voice to tell you to buy
soap
this is a dangerous thing right what
happens to our kids again who are
growing up whereby they won't know
what's going on and they have very
malleable Minds
and none of that is illegal
but I think it's an undesirable outcome
right
and then you've got the Bad actors and
then you've got the politicians using
this technology and then it goes even
crazier than that so the answer is I'm
not sure nobody's sure but I think the
only way that we can try and figure this
out is to work together to make these
issues known again the existential stuff
gets the headlines we could all die no
one really understand what that means
but it can happen right okay there's a
probability of that but there's some
real harms today and real opportunities
today and we have to focus on
accentuating the opportunities and
getting the harms out there and dealing
with them yeah and I I definitely want
to spend a very extended period of this
talk talking about the opportunity and
how we capitalize on that so anybody
that's with us now trust me we're going
to get to that but uh I think we're
we're just beginning to scratch the
surface of how this goes wrong and I
really want to
um map out sort of where you think the
edges of this are so that then I can
hopefully get a sense what you think the
regulatory framework would be let me
give you one idea that somebody posted
today on Twitter and it really hit me
that people are even thinking about the
problem in the wrong way so uh there was
an artist and he was looking at some
post about Ai and he replied sort of
angrily that oh well people don't even
understand sure or there's going to be a
ton of like instantly generated crap but
it's all going to be bad because there's
still a very small number of people that
have good ideas and my response was if
you think that ideas are safe you're
really going to get caught off guard so
going back to the idea of what are
people unprepared for I think they are
unprepared for what you were just
talking about where the AI so the human
mind is a prediction machine it is
constantly trying to figure out what
what does this next movement of my foot
equate to am I going to stay up stay on
balance uh that rustling in the bush is
it a tiger what is it if I put money in
my 401k am I going to be able to retire
you're constantly predicting the future
constantly and whenever that prediction
engine breaks down there's going to be a
tremendous amount of anxiety and also I
think a pretty big unknown in terms of
how it's going to impact Society so
right now we have a we're building
something that is incredibly good at
recognizing the patterns that we kick
off so we are optimized to identify
patterns and move accordingly and I
would say people that are hyper
intelligent or people that they notice
patterns faster more subtle patterns and
they understand their implications and
how to make sense of them
now we're creating something that's
already proven to be so much better at
pattern recognition than we are just
take art so for people that don't
understand how the art is created it
looks at a field of noise here are all
the possible things that these could be
in any of these pixels and from that
field of possibilities it pulls forth
the most likely placement of pixels and
colors based on what you type that's
insane yeah so that level of pattern
recognition as evidenced by the art that
it can generate is is truly mind-blowing
so this guy's saying okay hey at least
ideas will be the last Bastion and
you'll never be able to get rid of me
the artist because I'm the one with
taste I'm the one with good ideas not
realizing no no what AI is is a pattern
recognition machine it will recognize
the greatest ideas that have ever been
had what they have in common and will be
able to predict the next great idea
along that thing it doesn't even have to
just regurgitate what it's already seen
it can like figure out what that
sequence is and what that next part of
the sequence could be and on top of that
it's doing that with humans so AI will
get EX AI is already extraordinarily
good this is why people think their
phone's recording them when it serves an
ad oftentimes Target using their AI
knows that you're pregnant before you do
if you're a woman because they know what
to pick up on
so AI is going to get extremely good at
understanding us at an individual level
serving us up exactly what we want right
in that moment and
that gets dystopian really fast
really fast I mean again when you
combine it with the social credit score
as you've seen in kind of China and
other things you gamify life and you
have a system of complete social control
or panopticon as it were
the pattern recognition was the missing
bit whereby you had a level of pattern
recognition so for Taste what do you
have Tick Tock shine
100 billion dollar companies based on
Old School algorithms before even got to
generative AI which as you said it can
take images out of noise stable
diffusion you know the model that we
collaborate on now that we lead we took
a hundred thousand gigabytes of images
and the output was a two gigabyte file
that acts as a filter words go in images
come out because why why is that
discrepancy in size meaningful
fifty thousand to one compression is not
win zip
if you remember Silicon Valley on HBO
it's way beyond that they managed there
in terms of compression it's unheard of
compression is it compression or is it
something completely something different
it's intelligence it's learning the
principles how much information do you
see and then you learn the principles
and then spot the Tiger in the bush you
learn what's next literally GPT and
these language models they predict the
next word that's all they do they pay
attention they protect the next word and
that was the missing part to
intelligence that now is there we've had
the first studies now come out that show
that the language models score higher in
creativity than people
woof and again think about Tick Tock
think about shine think about how those
old school algorithms are already
targeting you
Facebook needs 17 data points to know
you better than your friend as he said
Target knows you're pregnant before and
that was old school now it's even better
and you think about where that leads to
as well
it's kind of crazy because it can be
more creative than you but are people
creative
one of the things I like to say in my
speeches have just been learned to do is
like
are you creative how many of you in the
audience are creative three to five
percent put up their hands maybe 10 to
20 if I'm like in a movie studio movie
filmmaker kind of milieu and I say how
many of you believe that every kid is
creative and everyone puts up their hand
and then I ask how many of you were kids
once and 1995 put up their hands so I
know who the cyborgs and the audience
come from the future to get me I'll make
a note of that for future something
happens or we're told we're not creative
and obviously some people are more
creative than others can tell better
stories than others but the reality is
that the average level
of barrier to this has dropped for every
human
but
much of what we consider art or much of
which we consider media shall we say
already is by the numbers I was at a
black Pink concert last weekend yeah I
took my daughter actually dare say
something bad about blackpink and they
are awesome
you know it was an awesome manufactured
experience it was a premium mediocre
it's how I kind of say this premium
mediocre premium mediocre that's
hilarious accurate it's nice but again
it's massively manufactured it's
entertaining right and so Macho media is
already that like true art
true artists you know that's something
different like is it the medium itself
and the aestheticness of it well AI can
make something more aesthetic than
anything can understand the nature of
aesthetic like how do you make an image
more aesthetic you say make it more
aesthetic
just like if you use a gpt4 you can say
make this punch here make this punch
here make this punch here you know you
can have a letter and then you say I'm
firing this person and I want to make
them feel okay about it and then it will
redraft it in those terms or you can say
I want to drive the knife in but not in
an appropriate way and it'll do that and
we can literally anyone on this call can
kind of listen to this can try that now
so I think this is just
as you said the wrong thing people are
thinking about the wrong model people
are thinking about as well and that's
why I always go back to this concept of
the really talented grad
because these models are a couple of
gigabytes big again stable diffusion
image model is two gigabytes and can
generate any image of anything
we'll get that out to 200 megabytes
gpt4 is probably 100 to 200 gigabytes
and they can pass the bar exam they can
go to freaking Stanford they can do
whatever
that's insane because it's not
compression like you said there isn't a
copy of all the Tater in there it's
figured out the essentialization of
these points and it's replicable this is
the thing
to clone Google or meta you need to have
a gigantic Data Center
and then much of the energy is in the
processing to Target you ads with these
we take Giant supercomputers and we
pre-process and package the information
so the output is this knowledge filter
that something goes in and something
comes out a prompt goes in and output
comes out that's something quite
different I don't think people
appreciate and again this is why I use
the grad example push a button and those
weights the file
the model gets replicated to 10 100 a
dozen a million and what happens when
rather than dealing with them one to one
you have a thousand of them
so in a year I want to really understand
what you're saying about the grad thing
so when you say that you say it in a way
that's kind of funny or cheeky but what
you mean is a really smart person is now
present in that role we have figured out
how to make human scale
that is what fundamental intelligent
humans scale yeah who can listen to
instructions
so you look at something like Claude 2
by anthropic
you have something the input is a prompt
when you type into gpt4 or stable
diffusion or mid-gen or something like
that
Claude anthropics model can take 10 100
000 tokens
it can take a prompt that's like 60 000
Words which is a whole book Jesus yeah
you can give it like the whole of
Ulysses and the whole of I don't know
the Odyssey by Homer and you can say
combine these to make another book
and it will do it and it will work
it can follow instructions really well
occasionally they hallucinate but even
Hallucination is a misnomer because when
you compress that much knowledge like
stupid people's probably 10 trillion
words 10 trillion 10
000 billion words in 100 gigabyte file
it's something else
and so I use the word grad because I
want to make it relatable but it is
literally like imagine if you had a
grand in the Philippines you know and
they're doing good work and they're
following instructions well that's great
but what if you had 100 of them looking
after each other's work and double
checking
meta had a paper called Cicero where
they took eight language models and got
them to check each other's work
outperformed humans in the game of
diplomacy the first time ever
in a year when we have this before it
you'll just say I want you to go and
look at everything Ahmad said for the
last year and figure out the stupidest
stuff he said so you know if I can avoid
it and the smartest most interesting
stuff according to what I know and all
of my podcasts
to give answers to give questions that
the audience will really like based on
my ratings
and based on what people look at through
the YouTube videos and things like that
and what they're most interesting and it
will just happen automatically
how many graduates that take you to do
and then what happens when they stop
being graduates and you can actually
train them up to be like you know
experienced members of the team how long
will that take
a couple of years you can reboot your
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this is why this is terrifying to me so
I I am a very optimistic person and
again I promise we are getting to how
you take advantage of this disruption
but I don't like to face a problem
naively I want to face it as head-on as
possible so that I know my Solutions are
real and when when I look at this from
my own perspective of okay I'm trying to
I'm trying to build a media company
which right about now is a very
terrifying time to do that yeah
and I'm thinking about okay it's
it's very optimistic when I look at oh
my gosh I as the founder of this company
I get access to all these grads as
you're calling it this just absolute
proliferation of very intelligent sort
of people that I can now put to work in
my company the problem is I'm now
competing against other people that have
the same thing and you you get in this
ever escalating arms race where
there there is a real chance for fatigue
and so I think what ends up happening
and we were talking before we started
rolling it's it is very important that
people understand the following thing I
think this is just a truth but people
certainly need to understand I believe
it this is a core belief that that
drives me
that we
you get to a point where you need to
know okay I matter I'm doing this thing
and that's how I'm contributing to the
world and I need to be in there working
hard accomplishing getting better moving
towards something and if I'm not moving
towards that thing then I'm gonna have a
profound sense of disease yeah and if
I'm not making that progress then I'm
Really Gonna fatigue out on something
and so if people are just Treading Water
because they're trying to build
something and they're competing against
somebody else that has these ten
thousand things and it's just constantly
changing and I can't predict the future
anymore and I don't feel like I'm making
progress I'm just gonna back off like
some part of me is just gonna be like ah
what am I doing all this for what am I
doing yeah I mean it's like the
Outsource Revolution right where so many
jobs were outsourced and a lot of people
felt that way like you know we'll
Outsource you to China will Outsource
you to India without social wherever
and again it just happens that there's a
computer on the other side of that
versus an Indian or a Chinese person
and so we've got kind of repetition of
that but at ridiculous scale affecting
almost every single industry that's
intermediated by a computer
and so this will cause as you said a
crisis of confidence to many and it
impacts white collar workers not blue
collar workers
it flips I think the global order to a
degree as well because here in the west
we've maxed out our credit cards we
weren't going to deflation I think
coming off high inflation and all of a
sudden we can't print our way out
because we just printed the last of our
money for covid whereas in the global
South what you have is this technology
can cause them to LeapFrog just like
they lit for Leapfrog to mobile missing
TC completely to intelligence
augmentation why can't we print more
money well because kind of we're just
coming up to a limit of what's literally
mathematically possible given the debt
to GDP ratios and others we can continue
but it's kind of interesting if you're
deflating then because so here's my
Layman's understanding but this is
something I really looked at so I'm a
pretty educated layperson at this point
uh inflation is largely some people will
say entirely but I'll say largely a
function of how much money you're
printing for people that are new to the
idea of printing money it's government
approved counterfeit so the government
is a allowed to print as much money as
they want they're literally just making
it out of thin air they're adding zeros
and ones to a database somewhere and
money Finds Its way into the system
beyond the scope of this conversation
but they there is no theoretical limit
to how much they can print now where
what you run into problems is the
hyperinflation of the currency but if
you're saying it's a deflating currency
which actually makes sense to me given
what we're talking about then printing
seems to make a lot of sense seems to
buy me more room eventually so what's
going to happen is that you've got a
decrease in inflation now because of
Base effects it's like for going into a
bit of macroeconomics and then you'll
probably have a bounce back next year
because you've still got a lot of
inflationary pressure and then the
collapse occurs why because that's when
the job losses start hissing and the
question is can we create enough on the
other side we've got to have a
productivity boom from companies that
job losses are coming from uh AI or some
other force from AI
and from other forces as well again you
know what we've had is the Sugar Rush
post covid a good strong economy as all
of the excess savings go back in because
if you look at XX savings people saved
up a lot and that's almost now depleted
by the end of the year the excess
savings will be depleted you've got some
hangover effects from inflation then you
move into deflation the year after
and then it's a political Hot Potato
around printing more because this isn't
again like covid because what happens to
the job losses just start and they just
keep going it's not like you had a 20
2008 crash or you had a covid where
everyone's kind of suddenly going it's
like
it's a bit like boiling a frog you know
or a lobster
it's just gonna start and then it's
going to accelerate and then it's going
to be like at what point do you take the
big fiscal action
it takes a few quarters of the economy
actually shifting
so this is a lot of hypotheticals right
but the bottom line I think is this
the nature of U.S Society Western
Society will change
I think the biggest adopters and fastest
adopters of this will be the global
South because it allows them to create
value it allows them to financialize it
allows them to take a big leap forward
and so I think that's got some huge
implications geopolitically and others
but a lot of upside as well because I
think you can solve a lot of the world's
problems with this
but it's so messy
because fundamentally it comes down to
what you said as humans we're trying to
figure out what comes next
and we certainly have a computer that
can do that even better
as humans were storytellers we're made
up of the stories that make us up you're
a filmmaker you know I was a film review
all these kind of things this can tell
better stories
and that has such a big effect on our
societies that none of us can really
wrap our heads around it like I've got a
background in economics management a
whole bunch of different things I can't
wrap my head around it and so we're just
gonna have to see how it goes and then
try to mitigate but
nobody's got answers to this and in fact
as you said most of the people aren't
asking the right questions
yeah you have said that uh the show
happens next year
I have a feeling that what you were just
talking about is what you mean by the
show that we go deflationary
towards the end of the year yeah so
towards the end of 2024 yeah we've got
like a burst of productivity enhancement
and then you start seeing job losses you
start seeing question and meaning you've
got the US election next year my God
that's going to be awful yep terrible
timing well I mean you know what
you'll have is the week before the
election
fake videos appearing everywhere and
they'll say the same things you know so
and so has a brain infection or
something like that and they'll be
identified as false but it doesn't
matter it still discourages people from
polling
but then what do elections look like by
2028 when this technology is in every
single pollster's hands
yeah that's where we get into the
blockchain we'll save that for a little
bit down the road yeah okay so
now I feel like we're we're getting
close to the problem set being on the
table there's one more thing that I I
think it's important to put on the table
which is
I don't think that the amorphous thing
that is society As the World Turns
history the grand Arc history however
you want to think about the the real
long timelines so even if the long Arc
of History bends towards Improvement
which I think it does and think it still
will I don't think it cares at all for
any one period of time and that
unimaginable amounts of human suffering
happen routinely throughout our history
and I have deep concerns that if we are
not incredibly thoughtful uh that this
will be one of those moments and I look
at what's going on in France right now I
think it's dying down I can't tell if
it's dying down or the coverage is dying
down hopefully it's actually dying down
but France was like really having some
struggles and
if something like that pops off over uh
not in any way shape or form to make
light of what happened but it isn't Mass
joblessness which is going to have a far
wider impact what happens when you have
that and it's global
I mean I think that's the thing it's
every government has every education
minister in the world has to Grapple
with why can't I set my set kids essays
homework again
have we ever seen anything like that
before
so quickly I don't think we have and so
you could see this literally
parallelized around the world
or not we're not sure what really kicks
off some of these things like right now
we've got the Screen Actors Guild kind
of protesting uh today we just had a
couple of actors leave Oppenheimer part
of that's monetary but already you're
seeing AI fears like front and center
you wouldn't even have thought it six
months ago what's it going to be like in
a year when you can generate or two when
you can generate whole movies and then
just describe how you want it done and
it's Hollywood level
it's really difficult for governments to
react to this to adapt to this when like
in the US here we're still reacting to
section 230 on the internet they're just
getting together to the internet all of
a sudden AI just comes and sideswipes
things right
and I think again the only way to do
this is if you can create brand new jobs
quicker than anything
um this is one of the reasons again like
I said we focused on open source it's
why you need to have things like
regulatory sound boxes
so that you can experiment and try and
you need to stoke Innovation because you
don't you'll never get an innovation
phase like this either
I think this is a step change in a
regime change in the way that Society
operates
because we're originally an oral species
let me figure out how to write then we
have the Gutenberg Press
and it took all these words but it took
them down into black and white it made
society quite black and white because it
couldn't capture context
whereas these models can capture context
they can capture principles then capture
more
so again you know you're writing this
down you won't have to in a year or two
it'll just be automatically added to
your memex to your knowledge base right
also the AI will just be attached to my
head it will read the brainwave patterns
and know that that's what I need to
remember and that sounds crazy but like
we had mind vis a paper that we kind of
published from our medoc division
whereby you looked at a picture of a mug
took an fmri and then it reconstructed
it using our image model yeah that
doesn't sound crazy to me at all this is
what I'm saying about people do they're
not prepared for what's coming they are
not prepared for this level of change
and they really aren't prepared for the
rate of change and it isn't just like an
arc like that it's lots of s-curves all
at once all around the world where every
single company is now thinking what's my
generative AI strategy yes for when it
pops off correct and every government's
thinking how can I stay competitive
and this is why I said like
it's a race condition
where everyone is trying to do the same
thing or similar things and you can't be
left behind you can't not participate
and it's been a very long time since
we've seen that and there's a world
before this technology in a world after
this technology
like I don't think again you know I've
got a two kids what does the world look
like in five years let alone ten years I
have no idea and I'm in the middle of
this
because it's just impossible to see the
smartest people that I know they used to
be able to see years in advance they
can't see more than a year or two this
sounds again very apocalyptic but then
like I said we're gonna get to the good
fit in a second in every crisis there is
opportunity
our society is broken as it stands
already and I think this is a chance to
reshape it for the better and solve a
lot of the biggest problems that we've
been facing because of our slow Dumb AIS
because of our organizations and
institutions that we are all frustrated
with I think this is a big upgrade from
it the example I had to give is there's
the amazing poem by Ginsburg Hal about
moloch this carthaginian demon of
disorder
I think where that came in was text
because we had to essentialize
everything down and put people into
boxes because we couldn't have systems
to understand the context you can't have
personalized educational personalized
Healthcare
because you couldn't scale humans there
weren't enough talented humans
until now
and so I think that is the incredibly
dangerous part because all of a sudden
from economic pressures you flood the
market and it's the incredibly
motivating part whereby
there's a shortage of talent for
everything that's important
and there isn't any more
but in the nature of talent for jobs and
things will transform
and I think the economic abundance
that's created on that that's the flip
side of this as well as the ability to
fix our broken systems
all right I'm going to give you my
timeline
I think the next year is going to be uh
a lot of fun for people that embrace it
it'll be a period of time where some
people can ignore it and they probably
won't really notice they won't realize
how fast things are changing although
follow me on Twitter I uh I post
routinely like hey here's something I
didn't think that would happen for 18
months and we're now 45 days later we're
using it uh things are really really
moving faster but for the next year I
think people will be able to ignore it
and they won't realize that it's growing
with such Steam and ferocity uh then
year two to six I think it I think that
there is going to be pockets of extreme
suffering and I think uh deaths of
Despair are going to Skyrocket and I
hope it's not a the world is burning
riots kind of thing it'll probably be
more quiet and Insidious than that but I
really think that we're going to lose
people on the upper and lower ends I
think people that are old are going to
just completely check out and say I
can't keep up I'm too old I don't want
to learn this new stuff I think people
that are young it's the only thing they
know is change so fast that they can't
see around the corner I think that would
be absolutely terrifying to them and
they're going to retreat into the levels
of Entertainment sex bots
AI friends that are more loving and kind
than their other friends and they it
will be a collapsing inward
now as somebody who is prone to
collapsing inward the biggest thing
that's held me back as an entrepreneur
is that I like being alone with my own
thoughts yeah and that
if you then layer anxiety on top of that
and then you give me an AI that's
actually better to me than anybody in my
real life has ever been
and then you give me maybe some drugs I
will truly collapse in under my own
weight not me personally I have defenses
but yeah I'm saying like that
personality type is really going to
struggle so I think right there you sort
of you're You're Gonna Lose a generation
if I may be so bold on the upper and
lower ends
then either
on the 10 to 20 year time Horizon and I
leave it that long because look we're
any prediction that you make with the
timeline is guaranteed to be wrong so
I'll try to give myself at least a
little bit of buffer and I know that
everything I'm saying probably
directionally correct timeline probably
way off yeah but 10 to 20 years my rough
estimate that's where we're either in
Terminator and we're running from
radioactive Rubble to Radioactive Rubble
fighting the machines uh or it it really
is a Utopia and I think that there is a
real shot that we get to the closest
things that humans are going to get to
to a Utopia where things are so
plentiful yeah everything we want is
available we re