Kind: captions
Language: en
is not any kind of mode to be in if you
actually want to solve issues climate
change is a problem but it's not going
to be the end of the world
you wrote a book called best things
first what and we'll definitely get into
the specific things that you recommend
but even more importantly than that what
I liked about the book is that you're
helping people take a new way of
thinking which I think is incredibly
important so I want to linger for a
second on the strategy that's being
deployed right now I think you and I
agree that for the most part uh I'll be
very generous and say I think people are
well intentioned but it does not seem to
be working so I wanna what do you think
is their point are they trying to uh
scare people more and more and more
because they think that's the only way
to get people to act if you listen to
all those stories you would be panicked
I totally understand why people think oh
my God but what you need to understand
is that if you actually look at the data
most things are getting better and
better around the world and pretty much
all kinds of ways both in obvious ways
we live longer not shorter we're better
better off we're better educated all
these things and there's still lots and
lots of stuff that needs to be done
we're not nearly well educated enough
we're still dying needlessly from lots
of different things and yes climate
change is a problem but again not the
end of the world how many people die
from climate related disasters well we
have pretty good data over the last
hundred years for people dying from
floods drought storms and wildfires if
you look at how many people dying it
used to be about half a million people
each and every year on average than the
1920s today that number is down to
around 18
000. so we've seen a reduction of about
97 in deaths this is very little to do
with climate but everything to do with
the fact that we've become much smarter
we've become much more resilient uh
We've lifted a lot of people out of
poverty and that means they can actually
afford to make sure they don't die from
these very preventable uh problems and
that's of course The crucial Point
climate change will create more problems
but it will create more problems in a
world that's headed in the right
direction it'll simply slow progress
slightly that's a very different kind of
thing than saying it's the end of the
world so I think these guys so Greta
tunberg and others aren't just simply
scared because they see this in the
media picture you also ask why are a lot
of other people uh pushing this agenda
if your thing is global warming or
something
do you want people to spend money on
that uh and so you're gonna push all the
stories that give you more leverage on
that front uh but so hold on because
there's there's an assumption that you
made there and I think this is part of
the problem so what I I want to tease
out and honestly I'm talking to myself
as much as I'm talking to anybody I have
lately become very paranoid about AI I'm
normally a super optimistic guy and I
can just feel the pull of my concern and
I have a a rule in my own life where I
distrust my own emotions and when I the
reason I distrust my own emotions is I
know that I have a negativity bias I
know that I am going to be way more
likely to believe that something
negative is true I know that I'm way
more likely to click on a link that says
that we're all going to die like I get
it and as somebody building a YouTube
channel I know that if I put a way more
like Doom and Gloom terrifying headline
that people are going to click on it but
going back again to your book best
things first the thing that draws me to
you and and I really do want to stand
this point for a second about the way
that people think how to get them to
take action what the right actions are
to take I think it is important to
understand why we are where we are first
so that people can begin to unwind it
okay so I'm talking to myself what I'm
trying to say is okay look you have a
negativity bias people are going to try
to rile you up through the negativity
because that is the thing that's going
to get you to take action but what you
just said if you're somebody who's
really gotten sucked into this your mind
is taken over by the panic and you think
I want people to spend money on my
problem that to me is where this breaks
and this is where as an entrepreneur I
in fact I just tweeted out today I'm not
trying to motivate or inspire people I'm
trying to empower them with
goal-oriented solutions that actually
work and so it's that that actually work
thing that I think we have to tease
apart so my point here is I don't think
I really hope
that people don't want you to spend
money on something I hope that money
spent for them is a proxy for that's how
we get results and I think the very
problem is we have to get people to stop
talking about this is where I want you
looking this is where I want you
spending money and asking themselves
what actually works
does that make sense it totally makes
sense and and this of course is exactly
the way that I would think as well you
know it's about where do you get the
biggest bang for your buck where do you
actually get a lot of efficiency uh for
every uh uh uh motivation and and time
and uh money spent rather than where you
don't
um but I but I think so what I was
trying to talk about is if you've sort
of gotten engulfed in this one thing
that's going to do mankind uh and that
could be climate change or it could be
AI then clearly you think there's a big
meteor hurtling towards Earth there's
nothing else that matters right so I I
get that idea and that's why I think we
need to sort of take a time out and say
well that's not actually the case
certainly not for climate change I would
actually uh I I don't know if you know
those guys there's a it's an existential
uh threats uh Center at uh Oxford
University they've looked into this and
they they would probably agree with you
a lot more with AI this is not at all my
thing but that is actually something we
should be concerned about Toby ORD makes
a very sort of rough what is going to
kill mankind this century and his uh
climate change probably has a one in a
hundred chance uh of uh of doing that AI
could be a third you know 33 that's
that's a pretty big thing so clearly
over the century we should probably be
spending more time looking into that I
have nothing smart to say about that
that's just not my thing as well so I'll
I'll beg to differ with you on that so I
have often heard people in my position
that are on camera for a living say look
the way that I protect myself is I just
never talk about things I don't know
about and I think that's the wrong
approach so the reason I believe that so
I uh for a while I was teaching a
business class that I called business
decision making the reason that I taught
that class because it is hard to
convince people that that is the class
they need because if I said um
copywriting 100 million dollar
copywriting tactics people will sign up
for that class all day long now the
reason I don't teach that class is that
you can hire somebody else to do that
but if you want to be an entrepreneur
you have to be able to Think Through
novel problems so meaning not only a
problem you've never thought about
before a problem no one has thought
about before now correct me if I'm wrong
but what I see you doing in your shift
because everything that I know about you
up until best things first is climate
climate climate but best things first is
not read like a climate book at all to
me so I was like ooh here is a guy that
I again I'm gonna put words in your
mouth for a second and then you can
speak for yourself so here's how it
feels from the outside for people that
don't know you and I met 90 seconds
before we started rolling we do not know
each other at all uh but reading your
book watching a ton of interviews all of
that the thing that I put together is
you beat your head against the climate
thing forever and ever and ever and it
didn't work and you now have stepped
back to say the point I've been trying
to make this whole time is you just have
to prioritize and so I think so going
back to just to tie these ideas together
I don't think you should at all worry
about talking about a subject that you
don't know as long as you're approaching
it from a framework of thought
perspective here is how I would approach
that problem because my gut instinct is
that trying to tell people that there
isn't an asteroid hurtling towards Earth
in the form of AI in the form of uh
climate change whatever that's a losing
proposition it's never gonna people are
in the grips of panic so now my thing is
just like okay cool there's an asteroid
hurtling towards Earth it is climate
change now what do we do about it now I
understand the nuances of your argument
well enough to know the reason that
you're trying to de-escalate people is
because when panicked you make
short-term decisions because if you
think we're only going to be here for
five years you only think about
solutions that can be enacted in five
years so I get that but I want to stay
at a 30 000 for view on the way to think
through a novel problem first and then
we can sort of get sucked into the weeds
we are going to for people listening we
are going to go through the 12 things
we're going to talk about what you need
to to do but I want to do it as an
example of how to apply your framework
of thought against incredibly difficult
novel problems so one how does that
sound in terms of beat my head against
the wall with climate forever and ever
and now I'm just switching my pitch up
instead I'm going to get you excited
about things that will actually work and
it is a bit of a magic trick of like
okay I'm just going to take you over to
to the thing that is going to hopefully
get you excited about saving Millions
potentially billions of people with way
easier Solutions so there's a lot of
truth to this I I should just say I've
actually been doing both so I've both
been talking about climate for the last
20 years and I've been talking about all
the other problems like you know
tuberculosis and education in the third
world for at least uh 18 years of
thereabouts uh so but but the point is
everyone in the rich world only ever
want to talk about climate change
because that's that's what interests
people in the rich World whenever I talk
in the poor half of the world they all
want to hear about all these uh
Solutions so in that sense I'm just
happy that best things first is the
first real chance I've gotten to to make
this argument for everyone else as well
uh so I've been trying to do both things
at the same time and I think it's the
same it's the flip side of of that coin
look climate change is a real problem
but we shouldn't let that dominate so
much that we end up only spending money
or primarily spending all of our
resources there just like TB and you
know sorry tuberculosis and educational
these other things are big problems but
they shouldn't suck up all our attention
they should suck up some of our
attention and we should spend it
correctly uh and and so I'm I'm
basically trying to say you know worry
less about climate but be smart about it
and and there are some amazing ways you
can actually help uh fix climate change
but likewise be maybe a little bit more
concerned about tuberculosis and
education than we are right now oh but
there are really really smart ways to do
that and here are some of them so I
think it's the same sort of approach as
simply to say what works what do we know
actually work and I think that's
probably the the difference between what
I've been talking about in book and I've
been talking about the last 20 years
there are a lot of things we know either
work or don't work on on the AI side I'm
a little worried and again I'm talking a
little bit out of my field uh but my
sense is we don't know what works and
what doesn't work uh in in the same way
so it's much more sort of a probing
place and that's yeah so I like to sort
of basically support myself on all these
other Smart Guys who've actually already
looked across the field and said you
know what that policy and climate
doesn't work you know what that policy
for tuberculosis is incredible but I I
don't I haven't seen anything that says
in in in AI this is what stupidly
doesn't work or this is what really
works uh it it seems more like a
nebulous kind of we worry but we're not
quite sure what to do and then I I'm not
the right guy to come because I
basically just try to say here's a lot
of period research that shows us this is
dumb this is smart let's do the SMART
stuff first
yeah so that's why I think you're the
guy to talk to and I get it look I get
the impulse and maybe one day I will get
drugs so much in the public sphere that
I'll be like I give up but uh business
has taught me one immutable truth you
must learn to Think Through novel
problems which means you need a rubric
by which you think through things you
have not yet encountered so I would not
expect you or right now quite frankly
anybody to know what the answer is to
um to AI for sure maybe not even to
climate change but I would very much
expect there to be a bifurcation between
people that know the data and then
people that simply know how to approach
the problem and so um you know I beseech
everyone watching this interview you may
not know the data on a subject but if
you can build a rubric by which you know
how to approach a problem uh then you
really have something so that's what I I
want this interview to be that you and I
are going to approach these these very
difficult problems so that we can expose
the way you think again I don't know you
personally but you have quickly become
one of the people where I'm like whoa I
see the way by which you approach
problems and I find it very very useful
one of the things you've said that I
think will be a big theme as we talk
today is data is my religion I don't
even know if you remember saying it
because it was like an offhanded comment
to somebody that was like trying to push
you in a different direction uh you were
like I don't know anything about
religion data is my religion I was like
a word uh so uh I I took that note and I
was like yes so as an entrepreneur
if your data if if data isn't your
religion you will fail like that that is
just a guarantee okay so
um framing the problem within that idea
I want to to start building the basis by
which I think people ought to approach
hard problems and you let me know if
this makes sense to you so first and
foremost I don't think you can have a
conversation about solving any problem
until you say what I'll call your North
Star what is your North Star meaning
what are you optimizing for because
earlier you were saying I just want to
do what works
what do you mean works so like you you
have to Define that so one I would like
to know
what is your North Star and what when
you say do the best things first the
best for what
yes that's a very good question that is
really the the fundamental point so what
I really try to get people to think
about is there is a methodology uh that
has been used for at least half a
century which is called benefit cost
analysis that basically tries to look at
how much does a solution or a policy or
something cost
and how much good does it do and I'll
get back to just defining what exactly
is good uh but but it it sort of makes
sense if you just think about it without
you know uh probing too too deeply we
all do this in our private lives and you
know if you run a business clearly you
need to ask how much is this going to
cost how much good is it going to
deliver and then get a ratio that's why
we typically talk in in sort of you
spend a dollar and you get how many
dollars are good for the world back so
the basic is really really simple then
the question is what is the good the
cost is typically fairly obvious that's
often that you actually have to hand out
dollars it's also that you have to spend
time you have to spend other people's
time uh you have to inconvenience them
in a lot of different ways and we we
have a lot of ways that we try to
calculate that but mostly
side is a different thing and that's
where you say good good for who what
what is it that works
and and there you know again uh
economists have spent a long time on
doing this it's not the same thing to
say that they're all right or this is
the only way to think about it but I
think it's a pretty reasonable way to
try to estimate it so we say look there
are three important things in most
people's evaluation of what's good it's
good if you can make people save
people's lives or save them from having
pain or suffering in some way or another
uh that's the social impact if you will
then it's good if you can save the
environment that is you know you have
more Wetlands or you have less pollution
or something uh that you uh that you
don't kill off species those kinds of
things so environmental benefits and
then it's good if you get people out of
poverty if you give them more resources
do you have more opportunity that's
economy or uh as the UN likes to say
it's people planet and prosperity
so it's a way to try to say there are
these three different areas and we try
to model those very specifically so uh
for instance for people we try to
estimate what is the value of saving on
average one human life
very clearly most people tend to say but
that's infinite uh but if you actually
if you're going to spend money and try
to see if I spend money here I can save
on average one life and if I can save uh
spend money here I can save three lives
then it's kind of obvious I should
probably do the three lies but if you
could also spend that money say on
education or something else and make
people thirty thousand dollars richer
then what should you do well we probably
all agree well you should save three
lives rather than make thirty thousand
dollars but what it was 30 million
dollars would that be better you know at
some point there's going to be a a a
changeover certainly uh 30 billion
dollars we'd probably say yeah we should
probably do the 30 billion dollars and
we do this all the time in in you know
uh and public works for instance
um you have States deciding I come from
a place here in Sweden where the state
runs a lot more so uh excuse me if if
I'm running a little afoul of some of
the the U.S uh-centric ways of thinking
about it right but the state will go in
and say uh here's a pretty track
dangerous traffic area where people are
uh there's an intersection and there's
quite a number of people that die if we
put in a roundabout or you do you call
it a traffic Source we do we call it a
roundabout but we basically don't have
them so I'm married to a Brit so I'm
very familiar but the average American
is like what yeah yes but you know so
you drive around in a circle instead it
slows you a little bit down but it also
pretty much excludes all uh accidents so
you can save people's lives putting in a
roundabout or a traffic circle but it
also has cost it has cost and actually
putting it up and it also slows people
down there's a very clear trade-off and
a lot so people you know so the
Department of Transportation in the US
and many other places actually have very
clear routines for how much are they
willing to uh pay to put up this
roundabout or put a sender divider into
a busy road so people don't uh
accidentally go into the uh opposing
traffic and cause huge uh can I ask you
something though that I think uh some
people are going to be thinking is it
not evil to put a price on human life
be doing that but not doing that and I
think that's that's back to your sort of
30 000 feet view not putting a price on
human lives just saying everything is
important gives you no Direction because
what we're really trying to do is to
give you a sense of how much good will
you achieve if you spend the dollar here
where you'll have some people that are
lifted out of poverty some environmental
benefits and some live saved compared to
this other place where you can get the
same sort of things but in different
proportions how are you going to compare
those two if you don't actually make it
into a an explicit conversation about
how much are you willing to do and and I
think it's also important to say we all
do this individually one way to say that
is if people take more dangerous jobs
they ask for a wage increase this is you
know happens universally but people are
also happy to do a more dangerous job if
you get what uh the Brits call danger
pay yeah if you get a little more money
all right then I'll take a little more
risk or or perhaps the best way to look
at it you know you're willing to cross
the street to buy a candy bar uh but
crossing the street has a non-zero risk
of death you're essentially saying I'm
willing to take on a slight risk of
death
to have candy right and we we do these
things all the time
I am a freak for efficiency so let me
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you that so I'm obsessed with something
I call frame of reference so we all have
a frame of reference that is built of
our beliefs and values those are the two
biggest ones but usually people build
their frame of reference entirely by
accident it's based on where they grew
up what their parents celebrated the uh
you know potential lover that scorned
them whatever you you end up crafting a
view of what it is true about yourself
in the world and what ought to be true
about usually the world so you you craft
this framework but you don't realize
you've done it you don't realize that
you're making all these trade-offs all
the time and when you go to especially
in a political realm when you go to
campaign for a policy or something like
that no one ever talks about this idea
of the North Star I am optimizing for
this and in business you learn real
quickly you've got to talk about
some gnarly things because it's like we
just have to ruthlessly prioritize we
just I'm going to do this I'm willing to
spend that because when I think about my
own product for instance so one of the
things that we sell is education and I'm
like why don't we give it away for free
and the answer is because my employees
won't work for free why won't my
employees work for free like if they
could really do good but it's it's a
self-evident question but nobody stops
to go okay I get how this whole chain
works I get that nobody's going to work
for free and that's okay and so
beginning to pull all these things into
the light stop letting them be invisible
assumptions and visible values and and
this is why I think you have to ask a
question is it evil to put a price on a
human life your answer is correct you
can't do anything unless you know what
your trade-offs are but and and now this
is where I know your punch line is that
there uh I forget the group the U.N put
out 169 sustainable goals right and give
ourselves 30 years to get there
um yeah 50 okay and 15 yeah we're
halfway there and we we have basically
made no progress and so that's where
it's like well we spend a lot of money
but we haven't made the demand that we
get results so again this is why I say
you have to pull your North Star into
the light now the one thing is you gave
me three and this is part of where I
think people go awry so I'm very curious
so we've got people Planet Prosperity I
love those but I you people are going to
have to knowingly bring that balance out
of the realm of the just sort of we
assume we're not really talking about it
into let's talk about it like where are
the breaking points because I so I have
a North star everything I do in my life
is about increasing human flourishing
and decreasing human suffering for as
many people as possible while at the
same time I'm the center of my life
right so I don't give everything away to
become a popper to make sure that
everybody else taken care of them maybe
that makes me a worse person I'm I'm
perfectly willing to entertain that
argument but I'm at least honest with
myself about what I do
um so for me human flourishing is
already sort of this balanced equation
between people and life I think is a
less uh easy way to remember it maybe
but life so you're not dying and
prosperity and I think I don't know if
everybody will agree with this but to me
the environment is merely people sort of
groping around for what helps with life
and prosperity and I think they go to
well if the planet isn't here if we're
damaging it and we diminish our ability
over time to live and be prosperous so
that one to me is already sort of that's
a maybe path to these two things but
these two things are ultimately the one
that we have to pull into the light and
focus on agree or disagree
I mostly agree I I think you're
absolutely uh correct if if you think
for instance about air pollution uh the
most damaging part about air pollution
is that you die so again it's really
interesting uh and and uh and likewise
uh you just mentioned if you know if
there are no uh life forms uh we're all
gonna die because of that so that's why
we would sort of selfishly really uh
want to preserve them uh but I do think
that the environment conversation goes
further than that uh so once you're out
of extreme poverty and you sort of uh
get into uh the middle class or or the
rich part of the world uh you can also
start saying I'd actually like to know
that there are whales out in the ocean
even though I'm never gonna meet them
and I don't really care about them and
they're not you know in any reasonable
way going to impact my life or not I
just like the fact that they're there or
I like the fact that there's uh you know
a lot of uh uh tropical jungle in uh and
Brazil even if I'm never going to see it
and it's certainly not really going to
impact my so we also have this this
value that it's just good stuff is there
uh and and so I think uh it's it's more
a way of really uh making sure that
everyone comes into this conversation
that we're saying we're actually valuing
all of these things so not just it can
come across as a little crass and very
uh uh human-centered look if the
Penguins really don't do anything for me
um you know kind of thing but we can
actually like the fact that they're just
penguins and and it's cooler there there
and I'm willing to spend something
remember
we're not willing to spend everything
right we we certainly care more about
making sure that our own kids and our
own surroundings are well done but I
think it's fine to bring in all of them
but obviously uh you know for most
people it's more about life than it's
about uh prosperity and then it's about
environment
okay so as you begin to try to
prioritize those things what is the
methodology that you look at it seems
that cost benefit analysis which is
where you started is one of the sort of
big pillars for you so given because I I
want to acknowledge this is incredibly
complicated and even as we pull our
North Star into focus and we can all say
we can debate obviously at the level I
don't expect everyone to share my
breakdown of what I think the North Star
ought to be but at least then we can
debate it because it's a known quantity
um but whatever anybody comes up with
actually implementing that when you have
whatever eight and a half billion people
that all have sort of competing ways of
going about something competing views
Etc et cetera competing levels of
awareness
um it it just it gets incredibly
complicated very very fast so again
going back to the framework for the
conversation for me is how do we begin
to untangle these very difficult
situations okay so Northstar we we've
got it you've laid out yours I've laid
out mine that next thing then becomes
how do you uh I'll put words in your
mouth again and tell me how close I'm
getting you use cost benefit analysis as
the way to uh not decomplexify but
navigate the complexity of the real
world which we probably have to talk
about because I think present in your
thinking is the assumption that
implementing fixes is brutally difficult
and so having fantasy like wouldn't it
be great if we could XYZ is nonsensical
and I feel like that's what you're
approaching with the idea of doing the
best things first
yeah I heard
I hear it I'll get back to that in just
a second so
we say
this is not very complicated in
principle it's of course very very
complicated if you actually have to do
the Excel sheet yes but fortunately you
know you can sort of say look I I trust
that really smart guys have done this
I'd like to just look a little bit over
their shoulder and see some of the
things that have gone into the to the
mix but then you know I can sort of see
people doing that but the simple part
the the sort of conceptual part is
actually fairly simple and that is all
there is to this conversation for me uh
and again remember this is not how I
live my life I'm not saying that's the
only way you should live your life but
that's the that's the way that I'm
trying to help the policy conversation
of what should we do uh as a community
or as a nation or as philanthropist or
whatever this is being being helped by
looking at the uh costs and the benefits
and in some sense we we compare this a
little bit to to saying imagine going
into a restaurant and getting this big
menu of all the things that you can get
but there's no prices and no sizes in
there right you have no idea what you're
going to pay for all these things that
you might order and you have no idea
what size you're going to get so when
you order a pizza you have no idea if
it's a dollar or a thousand dollars for
this pizza and you have no idea if it's
like you know this tiny little pizza or
this you know the big thing that'll feed
your whole group and more
you need to know so we're basically
trying to put prices and sizes on
society's menu we're going to tell you
it'll cost this much based on a lot of
evidence and stuff and it'll do this
much good now at the end of the day you
might still then end up saying look I I
get that you're telling me uh you know
uh
spinach is incredibly cheap and it's
good for you but I don't like spinach
I'm just not gonna buy it and that's
fine you know we we can then sort of go
through that menu afterwards and say no
I'm not going to have that but at least
we'll give you some direction to make
smarter choices I think that's that's
how we think about it and and the cost
and benefit analysis is really just a
very simple way of giving us something
where we can see ooh this gives a lot of
bang for the buck this gives a very
small bang for your butt maybe we should
do the big bang for the buck first
on that then comes some of the those
those sort of things that go into the
mix of how do we do that one is as we
talked about what's the value of a human
life uh and uh there's a lot of
legislation and and uh uh uh uh uh
analysis of this in the U.S uh uh for
instance in in 911 uh there was that
whole question of what should you
compensate the uh uh the families of the
people who died in 911 how much should
they be compensated and should people
who made more money be compensated more
because they didn't have as much they
would have they've lost them yeah this
is a big you know a sort of
philosophical but very clearly a very
big issue here what most people would
say is that most of the value there's
certainly some value in Lost income in
the future but most of the value is
simply a value that we ascribe that all
human beings have that all human beings
are in some sense equally worth and and
so in the U.S that number both from the
Environmental Protection Agency and from
uh Department of Transportation many
others uh and and it also comes out of
that whole thing of how much are you
willing to uh get paid extra for a
dangerous job that sort of suggests that
it's about 10 million dollars per Life
this does not mean that you would
imagine anyone being willing to sort of
sign off their life for 10 million
dollars that's not what that means but
it means that we as a society sort of
say look if we can save one life for
less than 10 million we'll probably put
up that roundabout or that Center
divider or whatever
if it's going to cost us a lot more than
10 million we'll probably not if if
it'll just save one life that's how
that's about the cutoff point and this
is going to make people feel
uncomfortable but there has to be a
cut-off Point somewhere you know if
you're willing to spend uh a million
sure uh 100 million no we're not going
to do it somewhere in between there has
to be that cutoff point and that with a
lot of research seems to be about uh uh
uh 10 million dollars now it's important
before we go on that this is true for a
very wealthy country like the US not
true for really poor countries one way
you can see that is if you go to the US
uh everybody drives fairly safe cars and
they'll just have one person in each
seat and they'll have a seat belt and
all kinds of stuff and they'll have
airbags and stuff go to you know India
or another uh much poorer country and
you you'll have people sitting all over
trucks uh with no airbags and no seat
belts and stuff and it's not because
they don't want they they care less
about dying than we do it's just that
they can't afford to care as much
because they have many other competing
demands and so it turns out that in
India and many other places uh the value
of a human life where the cutoff point
is is much much lower and so in our
estimates for the poor half of the world
the low and lower middle income
countries uh is about a hundred and
twenty sorry I should know this number
and now I'm getting old I'm getting
uncertain about it it's 128 000 that
feels very un unreasonable surely it
should be the same in the rich in the
poor countries but no if it was if we
really meant that we would spend all of
our health care spending all of our
money that we're currently spending in
the US we've been spending it in India
and we're not because again as we talked
about most people in America care about
people in America most people in Sweden
care most about people in Sweden and so
on and that's there's nothing wrong
about that we just got to be honest and
putting this out in the open is both
going to make it very honest and obvious
but it's also going to be a little
uncomfortable
okay so to that point I think this is a
big part of the strategy of panic and I
don't want to be naive I know that there
are some people that use Panic as a
power grab so if they can get you
worried they can get you controlled
under their thumb and doing what they
want but but again for the sake of this
conversation and just for my own sort of
sanity and world view I'm going to set
that aside and just assume that people
have good intentions so
to wrap that idea up we have people that
and I want to Steel Man the argument for
a second so you have people that are
um they really believe that there is an
asteroid headed towards Earth and again
I don't care what they think is the
worst thing nuclear war AI climate is is
irrelevant I think the you think through
the problem the same way so there is uh
an existential threat that we're facing
and the only way to get people to pay
attention and to act is by really
getting them worried they understand
that we have a negativity bias they
understand that I mean I I can triple
quintuple views on a video just by
putting a fear-inducing headline which
to anybody that follows me hey we are we
are doing our best to back way away from
that
um but
that is it's really effective and so
they look at that as a tool and they say
look I have their best interests at
heart hey everybody I'm I'm trying to
help you sincerely and I'll say you put
them in an fmri machine and they they
pass like they really are trying to help
you their empathy centers are lit up
their compassion centers are lit up they
they are trying to do good in the world
and so in an effort of trying to do good
they're they want to panic you and then
when that gets them let's say 10 of the
where they want to go they go oh I need
to panic you ten times more and so they
just keep like really freaking people
out
um so I actually understand the tactic
so what I want to understand is do you
think a little bit of panic is good and
it's a spectrum and it breaks do you
think that that's just fundamentally the
wrong way to think about it
um how do we because I as we get into to
best things first and the specifics
I think you have sort of abandoned that
strategy altogether
yes
so I I would I I guess I guess my answer
would be twofold so I I would I I
certainly try to not deal in panic uh
because as as we started off talking
about it's very hard to imagine that
that actually helps you make smarter
decisions
um uh but also I think in some ways it's
not like me saying we shouldn't panic
and we should take that Panic out that
there's not going to be a lot of panic
in the world anyway uh so I I I tend to
see the world very much as a marginal
conversation and I'm simply trying to
set out some unpanic advice that in a
pretty panicked world can help us be a
little smarter uh and and I think that's
the right way to do it so I'm basically
saying well if you look at this world
and look at it without panic but simply
ask what kind of things can you do
and how much will they cost and how much
good will they do for people planning
prosperity and then you have a sense of
oh that might be the right thing to do
now again if if if you're then looking
at the the menu and I've said oh these
are very cost effective and these are
terribly cost ineffective maybe you've
just heard about did you hear about this
Aspartame is now giving you cancer which
is you know I don't know if you saw fa
uh FDA actually came out and said come
on guys you know that this is very
unusual it's just it's just one of those
many things you know that you you get
health advice but maybe you're going to
be looking at my menu and say oh but
that has aspartame in it so that's
that's the only thing I'm concerned
about fine you know if that makes sense
for you but at least I'm trying to give
you unpanic advice and I think that
that's helpful and if it helps some
people move to more towards smarter
policies that's great
okay so that makes a lot of sense to me
I want to take a biological approach to
this I think it um I think it's very
important for people to understand
you're having a biological experience if
you can understand yourself through the
lens of biology you're going to be able
to make way more rational decisions the
reason I think panic in the final
analysis is not the way to go is you're
triggering the sympathetic nervous
system you're putting people into fight
or flight like even looking and I am I
am but a headline reader when it comes
to climate in general and really just a
headline reader when it comes to Greta
um but you know seeing the the really
emotional outpouring
um the you know fear of like I don't
have a future and crying and really like
expressing a lot of distress
again assuming that that is all really
sincere and I have not seen anything
that makes me believe she is anything
but a hundred percent sincere
um
the blood is leaving your prefrontal
cortex which is the seat of higher level
cognition so you've moved yourself into
an incredibly emotional state which will
get you to act but it won't get you to
be rational it won't get you to do
cost-benefit analysis and as somebody
who really believes my mission in life
is to empower people with goal-oriented
things actually help them that work in
the real world
um lesson maybe not lesson number one
but lesson number two or three is you
you you must get control of your
emotions you must be really skeptical
emotions are necessary we can't make
decisions without them I'm not saying be
a robot some of the most amazing things
in life are are driven by emotion
um but you really have to have a
skeptical eye towards what emotions do
to your physiology and whether that puts
you in a position where you're making
the best decisions or not and I'll put
it to people like this let's say you're
on national television and you have to
win at a game of Jeopardy whatever uh do
you really want to be crying
hysterically during that do you want to
be anxiety through the roof or do you
really want to be
rational calm at ease and
I think part of what makes your message
um
struggle for the kind of attention I
will say I watched a debate with you
where the audience got to vote on who
was most persuasive from your opening
there were three of you uh you were the
most I would say just sort of rational
like hey we need to do things to improve
the world and we just have to be
cost-benefit analysis about it and the
other two were some variation of you
need to be really worried and this is
either sort of a a middle problem or
this is like full-blown panic and it
just ranked full-blown panic had the
most votes middle Panic had middle votes
and then your calm rational was in third
place and the more you guys talked the
more it just settled into those three
positions and so
the reason that I think
that you aren't
in positions like that you don't just
naturally spring to the top even though
I found your arguments the most
compelling uh is because it isn't
putting people in an emotionally
heightened state but is also more likely
to get a more thoughtful
useful path to execution
all right anything I said there that
feels incorrect for where you're at and
how you see things
I totally agree and and again I also
think uh uh I I get the idea of saying
I'm certainly not going to win any
popularity uh contest with uh with with
just sort of uh making a very rational
and calm argument but I think uh when
when a lot of people and I I hear this a
lot uh when you sort of give people this
alternative view then when you've calmed
down because you know you can't be in
panic all the time you st you start sort
of to think about well maybe that guy
who who just had that calm argument
that's not that's not totally off and
again my point is simply to take up a
world that's pretty panic and make us
slightly smarter and you know I'm I'm
all happy if if that helps a little bit
if we push ourselves in the right
direction by writing the book and this
is also uh my my Think Tank uh one of
our sort of core ideas uh our goal is
not to make everything right oh I love
that but it's about making the world
slightly less wrong uh so you know I'm
simply trying to push in the right
direction uh and anything I can do to to
help that that I'm happy no I love that
um one thing that I I am very troubled
by because of my own limited cognitive
abilities is another issue with the the
rational arguments that we're going to
go through here in best things first is
holding a nuanced position is very
difficult in that it's just hard to
explain it's hard to explain to other
people it's hard to explain to yourself
but it's very easy to say AI is going to
kill us all it's very easy to say that
um we're not all the ice caps are going
to melt and the sea level is going to
rise by six feet and we're just gonna
all be obliterated
um those are easy positions to hold on
to right like I saw a headline that said
hot takes in in a a world that's heating
up or something like that I was like oh
that's just so linguistically clever and
it like is easy to hold on to those
ideas but but it's far more difficult to
walk people through the nuanced position
of well Innovation is really going to
combat a lot of that and for a while I
don't know that it's still true but for
a while actually global warming was
causing more ice to form in Antarctica
so in the Arctic Circle it was melting
but in the Antarctic it was it was
freezing it didn't I don't think last
for very long but it's like you get
these very complicated things so that's
hard whereas the other side is easy and
again I'm talking to myself here like I
understand I'm over here taking notes
because ideas will pop into my head and
be oh God if I don't write this down
that sort of nuanced understanding of
this moment will will pass me by and so
I'm saying all of this because I really
want people to begin thinking through
how how is it that I Timmy Sally you
know Jimmy Jerome out there how do I
make decisions how do I think through
these different things and and really
begin to crystallize that in a way that
allows them to to think well through
problems okay so with that setup
you end up going from
being known for or having written books
about climate to now you're writing
books about these this other side that
you said that you've been dealing with
already for 18 plus years which
highlight your North Star as being
you've walked us through it so
um people Planet Prosperity are the
words typically used around these things
it feels like it sits pretty well with
your view
so how did you come up with the 12 I
know the 12 aren't in any particular
order if I remember correctly
um but what was the criteria for the 12
that you chose
and and if you can like even just run us
through a handful of them to orient
people to what this is so let me just
take take the background for this first
uh and that was what you mentioned with
the 169 uh targets uh so the UN has
actually set targets for all kinds of
things for 2030. uh you know this is a
well-intentioned list of saying we want
to make for a better work uh so it runs
from 2016 to 2030 so this year is we're
at halfway uh uh to these uh sorry we're
at halftime uh for these goals but we're
nowhere near halfway uh and that's
basically the point because the UN ended
up basically promising everything to
everyone so they talk about we should uh
you know get rid of poverty we should
get rid of hunger we should get rid of
corruption and War and climate change
and we should fix uh uh infectious
diseases oh and chronic diseases too and
we should also make sure that there's uh
there's no want for any other kind of
thing and we should have better
University education we should have good
jobs for everyone and we should have
organic apples for everyone and
Community Gardens and the whole thing
and you're sort of like really you know
yes of course you know I would love this
world where we had everything to
everyone but clearly if you're promising
everything to everyone you have no
priorities you're literally not giving
in a direction you're just saying all
good things in apple pie but why is that
bad so that that sounds amazing and I
think part of people's hang up is uh
what's the problem like that sounds
awesome yes let's do it and we have
Bjorn there are so many people in the
world there's so much wealth like come
on come on can't can't Elon Musk solve
these problems by himself
so so I I can put it to you in a way I
love which is just numbers uh so if you
try to cost how much this is going to
cost it'll probably cost an additional
10 to 15 trillion dollars to give you a
sense in proportion right now the Global
Tax intake of all governments in the
world
is 15 trillion dollars so we basically
have to double
Global Taxes I don't think anyone is
going to vote for that we just don't
have enough money to do all these things
so hold on because I think we have to
attack some of the common misconceptions
I think people are okay with that and I
think that they would say yeah uh I'm
middle class so it just doesn't really
apply to me but tax the corporations tax
the rich and we're good like I don't
think if you were to pull the world for
whatever that means uh I think they'd be
like yeah double taxes
actually ask people that question uh of
course you would end up paying at the
end of the day you know this given that
the global GDP is only this large about
a hundred trillion dollars this is you
know 15 of of of of global income each
and every year
this is gonna have to go out from
something else that you otherwise would
have had uh so this is real money that
is not going to be available to you
that's why I'm simply trying to make the
point of saying we don't have enough
resources to deliver everything to
everyone
and so we are going to end up making
hard priorities but if we don't talk
about them they'll end up being
priorities that are set instead by some
things grabbing a lot more attention
than the global sphere and they get some
funding and then lots and lots of things
get very little attention and hence we
don't end up spending any money on it
that's of course why we're failing on
all of these targets so the U.N
Secretary General they've been pushing
this for a very long time uh they came
out with what I thought was a
surprisingly honest uh report a couple
of months ago and basically said we're
failing on all of these targets uh we're
failing they didn't say this but we're
failing because we've tried to say let's
do everything which means there's no
Direction what should you spend on next
okay so I'm gonna I want to pause it
there for a second and then we'll
certainly get into why priorities matter
but I I want to address directly this
the taxing so whenever you can solve
something with a thought experiment do
and so I think in the answer that you
just gave there we've already run the
experiment of whether more taxes are
going