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Language: en
if you want to be successful you've got
to be paranoid think about the fraud
verdict that was just handed down in the
FTX case a lot of paranoia during the
due diligence process would have gone a
long way also there are just so many
warning signs in the economy right now
that people really need to be paranoid
about what comes next right now 86% of
Executives believe a recession is coming
seven stocks alone account for 28% of
the S&P 500 debt has reached just
absolutely dizzying Heights and here to
discuss all of this and more and what
you should do about it is Patrick Bet
[Music]
David FTX Sam bankman freed just gets
convicted on all seven counts absolute
Madness uh obviously fraud at the
deepest level as I look at what's
happening it feels like yet another one
of these pieces of instability on um an
economic chest board right now that is
all over the map with a whole lot of
things going on I'm curious to get your
take not only on FTX but how you think
this ultimately fits into a landscape
that feels very unsustainable with the
amount of debt and printing uh that we
have going on right now so one uh uh
that's great news is accountability as
long as accountability is being done
that's a good that's good this guy stole
8 billion on people's money we're not
talking $8 million or $80 million eight
billion dollars and he was practically
buying politicians is what he was doing
left and right uh second biggest donor
behind uh Geor George Soros George Soros
gave I don't know what his number was
but this guy was in a 29 million range
is what he was he one time uh uh offered
Trump how much do I have to give you to
not run I don't know if you're aware of
this or not I did hear that yeah and
then Trump jokingly said a billion
dollars he said I would give you money
for you not to run think about what he
wanted to do behind closers he literally
looked at everybody as a pawn as a way
to move them so the guy getting 100
years we're going to see obviously what
happens when this thing ends but did you
did you ever see the paper that his
mother wrote years ago uh uh about
personal responsibility do you remember
that I didn't read it but I heard about
it and that's one of those things super
distressing did you read the book going
infinite no I did not really really
interesting it got bad reviews so I'm
not sure sure why it got B going
infinite I'm almost certain that's the
name of the book if somebody can fact
check me on that um but it was really
fascinating to hear how this was
somebody who was completely unemotional
on the inside um who I'm going to guess
just literally had no feelings or
thoughts about taking the money and he
was so going back so this idea of people
having a Messianic complex people become
so convinced that they know what's right
for the world that oh whatever we need
to do I'm going to be able to work this
out I'm smart enough to figure this out
it's worth whatever risk um and really
trying to completely remake the world in
his own image and do I think that it was
fraud in the way that Bernie moff
committed
fraud no
but did he just blatantly steal people's
money in order to put people's money at
risk in order to uh shape the world the
way that he wanted it yes was just
absolutely crazy hearing the detail like
page after page of somebody who just not
didn't even seem to know where all the
money was going just used everything
like his own piggy bank and was
splashing so much money around and had
the sense it was going to last forever
really really pretty horrifying yeah but
but two things that makes me think about
one the people who are in that space who
did some similar things are sitting
around same saying I don't want this
thing to bring more attention to me on
what happened with me so this is going
to scare a lot of other Bad actors that
are worried if they're going to be found
out company-wise there's some other
companies that are also a little bit
concerned about uh uh how they're going
to be doing the financing but I want to
read this to you his his mother spf's
mother was a Stanford law professor once
wrote an article Beyond blame and she
said we have to move past this whole
concept of personal responsibility okay
her word we have to get past this
concept of personal respon the limits of
personal responsibility the fact that we
have gotten so little in return for our
blame mongering at least opens up the
possibility that people would be
receptive to a new approach the next
time something goes terribly wrong like
your son going to jail for 100 years and
stealing 8 billion suppose that instead
of immediately asking who is to blame we
were to ask how can we fix this problem
yes Mom how did you raise a son like
this that stole $8 billion from people
so to me this is multi-dimensional I
don't know his mother I've never broke
bread I don't know who she is if Mom is
a Stanford law that means this is a
smart mom and if he is able to convince
this many people to give him this much
money you know and convinces guys like I
don't know if it's shamat or the or one
of these guys that he raised all this
money and they said hey we recommend you
having a board and he says go f yourself
I don't need a board to tell me what I'm
doing who the hell in the first place
trusted giving this guy this much money
without a board who so so for the people
that are upset I cannot believe I lost
this much money for my client next time
you given somebody to manage money for
you ask them any reason why we're giving
this guy at this age this much money and
you don't have a single board seat let
me get to straight you guys don't have a
single board seat yes we don't have a
single board who negotiated this deal
who the hell is this guy has he done
four is he the modern day Steve Jobs
with three other exits in the past that
you're going to say yeah this guy we can
depend on is he Elon Musk no he's just a
regular guy okay so the people who did
that you have to kind of give a little
bit of blame to them for not you know
get in greedent by the way this is a lot
of smart people that were involved we're
not talking about regular people uh but
but uh the fact that this has taking
place where this guy went from being the
modern day what did the Kramer called
them
he called him the Moder day JP Morgan
Chase do you remember this Kramer called
him the modernday JP Morgan Chase if you
can quote that it may be somebody else
but I think it was Kramer and he was
screaming off the top of his lungs and
all these people that got FTX money um
that uh you know they're going to have
to come back and maybe that's going to
show up again but I I don't really put a
lot of blame on those guys they're just
getting sponsorship money you either
pick the money or you don't pick the
money you're picking the CEO but uh it's
pretty wild to see what's going on here
but the best news is a certain level of
account accountability for this to be
taking place no doubt yeah going back to
the idea that they didn't uh even demand
a board seat I mean this is really
ultimately what the um the Euphoria look
like now I had never been through a
market cycle of euphoria I had no idea
what the signs were I mean now obviously
I'm familiar with the when your Sho
shine guy starts giving you stock tips
that's when it's time to sell um and it
really did have that sense of like
nobody wanted to miss out on the you
know the one grand slam that was going
to come out of this and that reading
going infinite was utterly fascinating
about like what he was really like how
awkward he was and how people started
reading that as like genius and that of
course he really was smart it's not like
he wasn't bright but he was I mean yeah
I don't know how much of this ties to
the idea of his mom and nobody's taking
blame I don't know there's something
very undisciplined like if if I were
just going to take it down to uh do I
think he's nefarious or do I just think
he believed he could do no wrong
believed he was the smartest guy in the
room which ended up being the punchline
to Enron I think the documentary is
called the smartest guys in the room and
it's like you this is so my thesis one
thing I'm really banging a drum on now
is just getting people to distrust
themselves like I I set my company up
where anybody can tell me when they
think I'm doing something wrong I
fortunately am not smart enough to run
this company where I'm going to make
every decision and be right every time
and so I constantly need people being a
checks and balance system letting me
know when they think I'm doing something
stupid so that I'm not
blinded and it feels like when you have
this messy on a complex put together
with somebody who really believes that
they're the smartest person in the room
and who's going to tell them otherwise
like you guys don't know what I do and
look at all this success that I've had
and I'm a singular mind and I'm going to
be able to do this and if you have those
two things together that really is how
you go off the terrifying deep end three
things uh one uh is uh wework I don't
know if you're following weor with what
they're going through and
2017 they were valued at $47 billion you
know how much soft Bank gave them in
2017 you know what they raised 18
billion 1.9
billion they raised they missed a 90 5
million interest payment they're about
to shut down we work okay um Andy
Fastow who was a CFO vron okay one day
I'm in a uh uh Four Seasons in Dallas
I'm doing a business planning session
and once a quarter I would go away I'm
at the hotel 20 miles away from my house
but I would have a room full of stickers
stuff on the board and I'm just writing
what we're going to be doing so I go
down I'm swimming then I go to the sauna
I'm sitting there how you doing how you
doing good what are you do I'm this oh
no wait yeah how long you been in the
financial industry 20 28 years who are
you with Morgan sany d right you know
I'm looking at a couple speakers to
bring to my event who would you
recommend oh who I'm going to tell you
you're going to think I'm crazy who's
that Andy fastel which Andy fow the CFO
of Enron the CFO of Enron yes do you buy
any chance to have his number he says if
I give you his number please don't tell
them I give you his number I said let me
call this guy I'll tell him I got the
number from uh uh somewhere but I won't
give the name I call Andy Andy is
paranoid he doesn't know who I am yeah 3
years later I bring Andy as a keynote
speaker at Vault conference last year
you know how I opened this up I said the
reason why I brought Andy in is to help
you guys not go to jail Andy gets up he
opens it up this way he says in this
year the number one CPA magazine of the
year I was the CFO of the
year he says then the next thing I want
to show you this is my jail card wow my
jail ID card one year I'm the CFO of the
Year running in around with 100,000
employees next year you know I'm
um I'm in jail and they they found a way
to kind of scare his wife as well and
they kind of separated him and he had to
go do six eight years whatever it was
anyways the moral of the story is
this study very closely who you're in
business with uh quby raised billions of
dollars and went out of business in no
time they were paying actors $100,000 a
minute to do 12 minute movies do you
remember those days with Kevin and all
that stuff and katberg and all these
guys were involved in it but if if you
see something coming in that even the
brightest of the brightest of the
brightest minds are getting involved in
ask some of the questions do we have a
board seat who's in the ear of the CEO
who's talking to the CEO what are his
values and principles does his mother
believe in personal responsibility what
are we dealing with here so ask more
questions before you jump in with
excitement because other people are
getting involved well so here's another
fascinating thing that um I I think
we'll have more things to say on this
topic later but the idea that what you
have are a set of ideas because they
were effective altruists and I didn't
know anything about it until I read the
book but reading the book it was like
okay he was an effective altruist he
hired a bunch of effective altruists
some of the people that helped them
raise money were effective altruists and
so there was this mindset and I won't be
able to do effective altruism Justice
enough but it's basically what is the um
I think they take a utilitarian approach
so what's the best good that can be done
with this so what's the most good you
can do with your life what's the most
good you can do with the money and so in
trying so interesting because this ties
into your idea of selfish versus
selfless and so they really believe that
they were the most selfless people
around and that they were just trying to
run everything through an equation of
like what's the the greatest number of
good that this can go off and do and in
some weird way it breaks and so even
though it really does sound awesome like
you're really saying I'm not going to
live a lavish life I'm going to give all
this money away in all these different
ways but and now I'm just really
hypothesizing here this wasn't in the
book but as I was reading the book I I
kept getting this feeling that I think
part of what ended up happening is the
algor them running in the back of your
mind is as long as these dollars go do
the most good it doesn't matter sort of
where they end up and so he had largely
a political agenda and was just like oh
these dollars will be best spent there
not thinking like well we only have so
many dollars that we can spend and there
are or should be Capital restrictions
you can't mix funds right that all got
way farther back got pushed way farther
back into the recesses of his mind
versus what's the highest good in his
mind that this money could be put
towards now again I'm super speculating
he didn't say any of that I don't know
that but that's how it felt reading the
book and these are the results these are
the results that we experience now for
me a basic red flag you know earlier we
were talking you and I if I ask you for
$10 million I say I'm going to take $5
million off the table you don't get any
board seats and I'm going to pay myself
$500,000 you all the red flag red flag
red flag red red flag
versus no here's where it's going to go
this is what we're going to be doing how
do you not have when you're given that
kind of money how do you not have a
board seat and accountability to hold a
young entrepreneur Co accountable how I
can answer that question so you are in a
position where you have a lot of capital
because this is a time where capital is
just flying everywhere so you have a ton
of capital that you have to deploy you
start hearing of this wonderkind who it
just has this crazy investing strategy
where he's arbitraging in South Korea
and it all sounds absolutely brilliant
and uh he is the next big thing he's an
effective altruist he's not even doing
it to get wealthy he'll show up in these
meetings in like cargo shorts and no
shoes not having yeah and so all of a
sudden it's like okay is he crazy or is
he a crazy genius and so the narrative
starts swinging to he's a crazy genius
and so yes he shows up and yes he's
going to play video games while he's on
the call with you
but that's because his brain works so
fast that he has the basically he's able
to fractal his mind and do the video
game over here and so as that becomes
the narrative people are buying the
story and so people will buy the best
story to quote um Morgan howel again
Morgan says it's never the right data
point it's not even the right answer
it's the best story that's going to win
and so the story they were telling about
this guy because I remember I was really
on the periphery of of hearing about him
and it was like he was the good guy he
was the guy that had all the right
incentives all the right reasons was
just doing good with his money wasn't
trying to be rich didn't live a lavish
life which wasn't entirely true um but
the story was there and when the story
is there everyone's euphoric number only
go up you've got a ton of capital you
have to deploy you find a once in a
generation genius he's being validated
on stages with Bill Clinton and whoever
and all of a sudden it's like okay well
the cost of being able to get in on this
is that we're not going to get a board
here's a crazy thing though the question
is is he going to get pardon the
question is is he going to be able to
get released the question is how many
people did he give money to that are
afraid if he leaks information of what
happened that maybe campaign funding
could come out maybe he has more control
of over other people is he kind of a
modern day Epstein not the kid stuff but
more how he held people hostage with
money information on the back end uh the
next thing is going to be who's going to
turn on him that took money from him and
how they're going to react um because if
things start getting weird it tells you
he's got a lot of intel on some very
powerful politicians in America yeah
yeah so we only have to wait a few days
for at least sentencing and then we'll
see beyond that all right as I think
about all this it it goes back to what I
started with we're we're on sort of
Shifting Sands here we've got a very
complex macro uh
environment and what what does all that
mean do you still think that we have uh
a recession coming and if so what do we
do about it good question so let's go
through
this you know how uh a doctor uh has
seen 5,000 patients over the last 20
years okay and he's got a very Niche
thing that he does it could be skin it
could be you know uh uh kids it's but
it's very specific and a lady comes in
and she says this part of my body hurts
no problem but 420 people have come and
I've said this part of their body hurts
in his mind out of the 420 it breaks
down to four different things it's
either this this this this so now as a
doctor he's going to use a process of
elimination let me test this that tells
me it's not this boom boom boom great
it's not this let's take blood and urine
it's not this let's take an MRI it's not
this let me take a sample it's this
great now you know okay what's the worst
thing a doctor can tell you when you go
to him the doctor says what I don't know
I don't know that's the worst thing when
he says I don't know what's wrong with
you I've never seen this before that's
like the last thing you want to hear
tell me I have this or I have this or I
have this but do not tell me I've never
seen this before for so today's economy
when was the last time we had this case
study let's look at case studies okay
what's different between today and 2008
market crash 2008 market crash was about
no income no assets Nina loans Banks
were giving them money left and right
hey uh stated income you're trying to
qualify for a $720,000 loan how much
money did you make last year Tom I'm a
school teacher
$48,000 you're not going to get
qualified for this time I going to ask
this question one more time how much
money did you last year I just told you
$48,000 do you want to get qualified for
this or not yeah okay one more time how
much money did you make last year
62 that's what it was no income no
assets in 2008 right 2007 and then I
remember the month when I knew it's over
because the one guy in La who was making
400 Grand a month uh had an office in
Tanga Valley in Tanga or Koga 30,000 ft
of Office Space November of 2007 he
shuts it down oo and this is right after
you're seeing WAMU Countrywide you know
all these other companies that are doing
what they're doing very problematic when
that took place so then you saw cities
like Riverside Community Riverside
County
65% houses foreclosure oh then you had
loone modification then you have people
that were buying five six homes paying
the negative amortization payment which
means if you got a loan this was a
program that came here from
Australia with the story you always hear
about that this program was in Australia
we brought it in America it was meant to
only be for people who are affluent okay
you got a $20 million loan on a house
you got $40 million in a bank account
I'll give you 20 million no problem you
got four payments to make you got your
15year loan which is going to be the
biggest loan you got your 30-year fix
which is going to be reasonable but it's
not a 15-year loan then you have your
interest only that you're literally only
paying interest and the loan stays the
same amount or you got your negative
amortization payment which means the
loan gets bigger every month that you
pay it because it's negative
amortization every month the loan gets
bigger okay so for example for the
average person in America would have
been something like this it would have
been neam payment was 1,200 bucks a
month interest only was 1,800 bucks a
month 30-year fix was $3,100 a month and
15E was $4,500 a month okay so people
are like dude buy another house and
another house and another so I got five
houses that I'm paying 1,200 bucks on I
can afford to do that except that was
only for two or three or five years and
then all of a sudden your 1,200 payment
goes to $4,200 Time 5
houses how do you pay $20,000 a month
you can't do it boom foreclosure
foreclosure foreclosure so that's not
the case study of today the case study
of today is somehow some way the
government thought it's a good idea to
lower interest rates to
1% and we had 3% loans that were going
on and then we talk about 128 month
expansion by the way if there's no coid
that would have been 150 month expansion
that we would have had that's not good
to have 150 month expansion because
during that cycle that we went out
Tom money was so cheap that people were
just picking up money and buying stuff
left and right it was so cheap go get a
house go get a car rates were low you
these big companies are getting $50
million lines $100 million lines $200
million lines go get as much money as
you can then Co hits when Co
hits philosophically it was a [ __ ] show
go work from home 18 months that's what
you got to do essential
non-essential and then when that took
place companies like Twitter and many
others said at Twitter under Jack dorsy
you can work from home for the rest of
your life what a Noble company that's
what we got to do and then so we go
through that cycle and then people
started abusing employers and they had
two jobs of they weren't telling anybody
but they're making 82 here and 88 here
so they're making $170,000 thinking they
can do this fraud that they're doing for
the rest of their lives and then they're
living a $170,000 year lifestyle not
realizing that's not going to be around
forever and then the money that they put
into the system all of a sudden people
have cash in a bank like never before so
we had $2.2 trillion of cash Americans
every quarter that thing went from 2.2
trillion to 1.7 trillion to 1.4 trillion
to 1.1 trillion and our savings as a
nation kept going lower and lower and
lower and lower so then we have um more
money being printed into the economy and
then we have the election then now Co is
gone now we got to get people to come
back to work they don't want to come
back to work they want to work from home
then companies like David Solomon
Goldman Sachs they start saying no you
got to be there for accountability on
Monday morning and all this other stuff
if you don't you're not getting your
bonus people started kind of getting
creative that's unfair that's not cool
I'm going to go get another job many did
then some companies came out and said no
we're just not doing that and then you
know that is taking place and then you
have a bit of War you have craziness
going on with another War you have all
of these things taking place and then
suddenly Jerome Powell sees inflation's
going to
8% wait a minute what's going on here we
got to lower it to 2% how do you lower
it to 2% let's start increasing interest
rates we raise this is crazy we raised
4.88% in the shortest amount of time
ever in the history of
America there's a chart on statistic you
got to see this it's a great Visual and
it shows historically when we've had to
increase rates it's over a three-year
span or it's over a six-year span or a
three and A2 year span no no this is
over a 12 month 15mon span
4.88% boom like this hoping inflation
goes down okay inflation moves a little
bit sales of homes to the lowest than 20
years mortgage applications lowest than
27 years people who were doing loans I
don't know if you have friends who were
doing loans or mortgages or real estate
these are guys that were making a half a
million dollars 3 years ago per month
they're not making nothing right now
guys who are making $100,000 a month are
having a hard time making $8,000 a month
right now loans there is no loan
application because even new homes are
not being sold to do the loans of new
homes so home sales are down because
typically when refi comes down people
will sell homes no one's selling homes
today why are they not selling homes
today because they're still sitting on
some cash and they don't want to give up
that 3% loan they got a year and a half
ago and then you look at the data okay
let's just say I do sell this house I
got to go buy another house but I got to
get that house at 8% I'm not willing to
do it why would I do it so I'm not going
to there is no motive to sell the house
so now what's the ticking Time Bomb a
few things
one Jerome Powell is trying to increase
rates hope fin hoping unemployment
increases because that's what we need
they need the unemployment to increase
it's not moving still 3.7 3.5 3.8 3.9
it's not moving it's right
there okay so either we need
unemployment to go up or we need people
to run out of money if people run out of
money and they're stressed out guess
what they they do they're going to sell
the house so today numbers came out
saying it's 55% more cheaper to rent
than buy this is the highest we've had
ever wow it's
55% cheaper to rent than to buy today
this is not a buying season this is a
renting season okay this a Wall Street
Journal many of these other articles
we'll talk about okay meanwhile
the economy is growing the econom is
going up Dow Jones oh it's killing it
based on seven companies magnificent
7even and you know who these Magnificent
Seven companies are Nvidia you got these
Facebooks the Amazon the apples these
seven companies that are preventing the
company from country uh the market from
having a crash then while all this stuff
is taking place um Powell now is dealing
with a war he's afraid he wants to raise
the rates a quarter but due to the war
that took place in Israel he doesn't and
then data shows which is by far the most
interesting data to answer your question
here is how much after these five
situations where we raised the rates
multiple times in a span this being the
shortest uh in the most condensed time
frame how long does it typically save is
there a formula of when recession comes
if at all here's what they realize
recession usually comes on average 11
months after the last month they raised
the rates so what does this mean if
Powell's no longer going to raise the
rates and the last time they raised the
rates was September let's just say that
means recession is going to come when
not October so you got October November
December January February March April
May June July August August of next year
three months before election that's if
it follows the trends of the last five
times when they raised interest rates so
how did I start off the story I talked
about the doctor that has met 4,000
different patients and the 420 or you're
kind of going through this the problem
of everything I just told you could be
completely wrong because there's a fifth
when the doctor says I've never seen
this before so we've never seen current
climate current climate before for us to
be able to put it and say well according
to this and according to that we've
never had this situation before yeah
that's the thing that makes me really
tense but there are fundamentals that
when I look at I think oo like there it
isn't possible to sustain this so the
thing that I just just keep coming back
to is debt and interest and when you
look at the charts that show the
interest payments and how they're going
to go up and up and up and even people
that locked in you know say three-year
fixed rates at really low rates in the
corporate Market that all goes away in a
few years and so you start looking at
just the absolute Behemoth numbers that
are going to be due to service that
money and it becomes completely
untenable and the bad news is it becomes
untenable both at the individual level
where we're more in debt than I forget
ever or close to it but individuals are
in psychotic amounts of debt
corporations are in ridiculous amounts
of debt and the nation is in a
ridiculous amount of debt all while
we've had two major printing events
since 2008 and so now you really have a
very unstable market so there's a great
quotes called Minsky Financial
institutional hypothesis instability
hypothesis excuse me uh and he said when
an economy is stable people get
optimistic when people are optimistic
they go into debt when they go into debt
the economy becomes unstable and now
that's even without the crazy rising in
interest rates so we have like this for
me it seems self-evident that there is
going like that that gravity insists
that things come back down but they
haven't yet and so just when I want to
get bullish and be like hey obviously
this is all going to come crashing down
it just keeps not and not and not
um my intuition is that a recession is
inevitable but the market can remain
crazy longer than you can remain solvent
whatever the quote is um why hasn't it
happened yet and how do you think about
because obviously you have the you have
similar concerns that I have only the
paranoids survive but how do we turn
paranoia into an action
plan yeah so everything is right now
about mapping out different
possibilities so for example if we're
right now in a conference room and we
got bored to write on we would write on
you and I would write on and we would
say okay uh World War III takes place
what do you think are the chances of
this taking place Ray doio says 50% yes
okay does a um Jamie Diamond says this
is the most danger Dangerous times we've
had in America in decades okay cool so
if World War III happens what happens to
the economy who's going to be the
parties involved are we going to be
involved purely through proxy or is
there going to be attack here then you
write down the possibilities okay if
this happens what are you going to do if
this happens what are you going to do
then next what happens if unemployment
all of a sudden goes to 7% 6% what
happens if inflation goes down what
happens if Powell starts lowering rates
back down to 5 4% holy [ __ ] that's
that's going to be crazy what Happ so
you got to write all of these different
scenarios down but here's a couple
things that we have to be thinking about
and you said which was fascinating one
so credit card debt highest it's ever
been you know what's the craziest thing
about uh uh credit card de being being
the highest it's ever been tell the
average interest rate on credit card is
the highest it's ever been Jesus forget
about the debt so people are worried
about the debt so imagine the interest
rates in the last 5 years has gone like
this to 23% or the average is 23% on
credit card you know what 23% means that
means the debt doubles about 2 and a
half years that's like loone shark
number that's loone shark three years
your debt is doubling right but that's
what we got right now credit cards okay
so our debt is
record-breaking the forgiveness for your
uh loan school loan is gone so now you
have to start paying for it that's $3
$400 a month that people are expecting I
think October November starting then
let's set that part aside go to the
corporations you were talking about that
are borrowing money this year they're in
interest payment on corporation that
borrowed money is going to end up being
around $530 billion just interest oh my
God next year it's going to 730 next
year it's going to 1.1 trillion in the
next five years it's going between 1.3
to$ 1.5 trillion just on the corporate
debt that we're talking about by the way
next part car payment a credit no one's
affected good credit they're making the
credit payments on
time mortgages we're not saying anything
crazy with people would credit not
making payments we're still good car
payments and subprime they're seeing a
spike in defaults where people are not
making car payments the first sign
you're seeing on what's taking place no
problem let's go to the next one that's
the scariest one us has $33 trillion of
debt worst that's ever been the highest
that's ever been no problem what does
that really mean nobody can really
figure it out here's what it means of
the money that we have about eight
trillion of it the rates are gonna
re-calibrate and we're going to have to
have new rates that we going every
single time the rates go up one point
just one point for the US government our
interest payments Tom increases by $320
billion Jesus so imagine we raise rates
by three points just interest it's a
trillion doll more per year if it's 6%
$2 trillion more per year that's that
then last thing that I'll just kind of
get you to be thinking
about
um so anytime you want to know if the
economy is back to normal go to
Vegas Vegas is humming like okay we're
good and always whenever you go to Vegas
talk to cab drivers and talk to the
drivers who are doing Uber always ask
how's conventions doing how are you
seeing with traffic are you noticing
things canceling no this has been crazy
for us the last 3 months everything's
good but if they start seeing a downturn
they're typically an indicator of what's
to come Transportation industry we
consult for a lot of Transportation
companies at BV Consulting one of my
friends I'm about to go meet with them
right after
this they're their con their
construction company that's very well we
have these three clients that we have
who are doing
Transportation two of them are doing a
100 million 80 million a year numbers
are down 40
50% one of them is doing a billion a
year their revenue is down 70% oh so
let's actually talk about transport why
would Transportation be down
70% aren't Walmart Amazon companies
ordering stuff to ship it from here to
there why would that be lowering what do
they know that we don't know again these
are people who have data to Insider
stuff that we can sit there and say
these are great indicators when you're
studying these things on what's going on
does this mean recession is going to
come here like I told you earlier when
we were talking my bigger fear is a
reverse market crash which Venezuela
just went
through which all of a sudden the rates
get lowered and DOW an S&P goes and DOW
goes from 33 40 45 50 55 just goes Voom
is that just the dollar losing its
purchasing power yes exactly that's what
happens the more we're printing like for
example a Michael Jordan um card uh
years ago a bgs 9 a half sold for
$78,000 I like oh my God that's crazy
but then all of a sudden all of these
boxes kept entering the
marketplace of 1986 Fleer so guys
started buying these things and they
were sending more to get graded at
Becket and PSA the more they got cards
graded that $78,000 card bgs 9 and half
became a $60,000 card $50,000 card
$40,000 card $330,000 card you can
probably buy bgs 9 and a half today for
$20,000 $25,000 okay so the
inventory increases the more we print
money the more you print dollars and
it's more accessible the less it's value
the less it's worth so these are some
things that's going on uh today uh so
you know like I you you sit there you're
like okay so does this mean guys are not
going to make a lot of money no no
you're going to see the first
trillionaire in the next 24 months
because none of this is going to affect
the guys at the top none of it this
printing money every time they print
money the guys at the top make more
money every if there's anybody that
should be against printing money it's
low and middle- income families if
there's anybody that should be against
printing money is them if there's
anybody that's for printing money guess
who it is the guys at the top why
because the poor in Middle America can't
keep money they spend it and when they
spend it what do they buy a product
owned by somebody in the S&P 500 or
other people who have businesses money
flows up they can keep printing money
all they want so when low and middle-
income families are like look at these
guys all they care about is themselves
let that bill pass for $2.7 trillion you
simply look at them and you say you have
no clue how money works you have no idea
how money works
guess what let's print $1
trillion Rich are okay with it you ain't
going to get the rich complaining about
printing $10 trillion or $5 trillion
black Rock's going to be like all right
cool we're at8 to1 trillion of money in
our ETFs and we're buying up a bunch of
different companies we're buying up all
these properties today right now it's
going to be nothing but in the next few
years you have to go through us and we
dictate the market and we're going to
own it all and what are you going to do
about it you know this these are these
are a lot of different moving parts that
is going on to me and again for me um
the the idea of Middle America not being
able to make the money they need to make
to be able to afford a house send their
kids to school live in a nice place
enjoy some of their dreams maybe not the
biggest ones but some of their dreams
are going to become a reality Middle
America is getting smaller and smaller
and smaller every single time we print
money you can reboot your life your
health even your career anything you
want all you need is discipline I can
teach you the tactics that I learned
while growing a billion doll business
that will allow you to see your goals
through whether you want better health
stronger relationships a more successful
career any of that is possible with the
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Theory University join the thousands of
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today for people that don't understand
the mechanisms of printing money it goes
like this you are you have to have a
mechanism by which you put this new
money that you created out of thin air
by Fiat literally just saying it now
exists uh you have to put it into the
system the way it's put into the system
is by buying assets because typically
low and middle income people don't buy
assets they buy products like you were
saying then they aren't beneficiary of
that unless there are stim stimulation
checks now those they will get sent
directly to them so there are ways to
put it in their pocket but what you're
effectively doing is socializing losses
so you are spreading the loss out across
everybody because while I get it that
um because I own assets I'm going to be
disproportionately either protected or
actually gain the gain isn't real and so
it's really I'm looking at the price is
going up and it makes me feel like oh I
really did something but in the end I
didn't in the end it just my dollar buys
less and so it takes more dollars to buy
the same thing because nothing
fundamentally happened the business that
I own a piece of did not become more
productive and therefore can actually
generate more by adding more value to
the world so once you understand that
like I actually as a wealthy person do
complain when people print money because
I'm like hey there is a point at which
you break everything because the money
is just going to hyperinflate and it
isn't only going to be the stock market
that goes up it's going to be the cost
of bread and gas and taking your family
to a movie and all of that and so um
look I I'm conflicted in fact Patrick
Bet David you're going to educate me
here I'm conflicted about money printing
because the only reason I got into doing
Financial content and quite frankly
learning about financial content or
Finance in general uh was because of
coid when coid happened this was me not
being very far out from having worked at
Quest and I had a thousand employees in
the inner cities and I was like they're
all going to get obliterated I'll be
fine I'll still be rich on the other
side of this but they're going to get
wiped out because I didn't know money
printing I didn't know that they were
going to socialize losses and in doing
that that actually kept us from going
into something that probably should have
been worse than the Great Depression and
they money printed their way out of it
and we ended up being okay because it
was spread across a lot of people now I
hate that I was t taxed
without um without it being acknowledged
as a tax and I feel that I've paid an
inordinate amount of money but if that's
what stops everybody from going into a
horrendous depression I don't know I
don't know that it was a bad idea but I
know that it because I am such a student
of Ray doio I know that governments once
they start money printing they can't
stop and every time in human history
that it's been used as a tool it's used
Until It Breaks Until It Breaks every
time without exception and that
typically as it's racing towards
breaking I think it's what eight out of
the last 14 times it's ended up in a hot
War so usually as the debt the big debt
cycle go watch R Delio's video as the
big debt cycle comes to an end and and
uh money's inflating away to nothing
debt is completely out of control nobody
can make their payments everybody's
defaulting you have to have a complete
reset of
the wealth which is I think why
everybody calls this the great reset or
the big reset or whatever because we are
we are actually stopping we are
forestalling catastrophe right now by
printing but we are only forestalling it
and nobody I've had a lot of people on
the show nobody can tell me how you pull
out of this death spiral other than
austerity and no one's going to do
[ __ ]
austerity
yeah well I mean Ray when he uh uh did
that one video if you've never seen that
one video it's like 32 minutes where he
explains the history of money and
finances and what's going on if you by
way it's got like 20 or 30 million views
very few 32 minute uh Finance videos are
going to have that manys everybody must
watch it
but yeah so how can you fix this thing
well the the question my question would
be is it a how do you fix this thing in
a year no one's going to know how to fix
it because it's not going to happen how
do you address this and make progress
towards you know getting better that
over a 20year span okay now we're
talking 40e span even better then you
have to forecast and see what Solutions
are going to be needed the next 20 30 40
years the problem with America today is
the following here's one of the problems
with America which by the way is a
beautiful thing but it's also pral
whoever that gets elected we have
cyclical Cycles okay you got Carter gets
elected then it's Reagan senior then you
have Clinton then you have have Bush
then you have Obama then you have Trump
then you have Biden so Republican
Democrat Republican Democrat Republican
Democrat so every time you do this every
eight years the system is like changing
so Cycles are changing whatever you're
doing is changing so you can't really
consistently build on a philosophy over
a 20-year period because in America you
you can't put a 20-year plan in place
there is no such thing as a 20-year plan
in America cuz whoever's the next guy
that's going to come take your job is
going to say no we're not building that
wall no we're not going to do that no
we're going to cut those benefits no
we're going to add these benefits no we
are going to spend more money no we are
going to do that no we are going to
leave this war no we are going to get
into this war the these things the the
complexity of what we're asking
about is challenging because no one
leader is going to run for 20 years we
just don't have that okay would you want
it in a in a way when it comes down to
the economy uh uh yes I would want it
selfishly for me and you because we're
alive today is it good for America long
term absolutely not okay absolutely not
because if that one person's a shitty
person that gets into office for 20
years this thing's gone it's destroyed
okay so at least this allows us to not
be able to go super extreme because you
have to get it through Congress and
Senate and it's already complicated
enough to do that but to fix this thing
you're never going to have both sides
agree philosophically e on what they're
going to be doing over a 20e span all
right let's go to the next side that
we're talking about while all this stuff
is going on you have uh um the the war
right now with China and India that is
also taking place with iPhones are now
being made in India you can now get
iPhones where on the back of it it says
Made in India first time not made in
China says Made in India really guess
who blocked Tik Tock in their country
India guess who's blocked 100 apps of
China India India is not afraid of China
now why does China not like India why do
they always be on closed doors talk [ __ ]
yet at the same time they're part of
bricks you got Brazil you got Russia you
got India you know you got China and I
think it's South Africa that's part of
the bricks right okay so they're part of
the same thing but there's also a way of
you know competing the reason why I like
India a lot and I think India is going
to play very important role here is
because India has seen how China
negotiated with us and they realized
we're not doing that but India's also
seen the mistakes China made with the
one child Rule and
overexpansion and what's going on with a
lot of these properties that they build
out in cities that looks like just like
Paris I don't know if you've seen the
city they build in China it's a city
everything Paris has it has it looks
identical to Paris if you Google this
same kind of architecture if I tell you
if I show you the picture you would
think it's
Paris they spend billions of their own
money to build a city replicating
exactly Paris that's what China did okay
wow so we're talking about you know the
whole everything everything they have
they have a sh same exact model that
they have over there exactly when you
see the pictures like when we're done I
can't wait for you to see these pictures
to see what that looks like so China
overexpanded very quickly India is
watching China they had their one child
one child
policy the average age of a Chinese per
right now is 38.4 years old India is
2728 okay India's uh IIT Institute is
producing incredible Engineers many
companies here will hire Indian
engineers and they're rock stars better
than m in many cases so I think India is
very important for the next 20 30 40
years very important as long as India is
there China's going to hate it they
they're not going to like it the fact
that Tim cook right now has got a very
hard job I think Tim Cook in the span of
four weeks lost $350 billion of
valuation for apple in four weeks $350
billion okay one because iPhone 15
didn't do what they expected it to do
two because China is now giving them a
hard time because China is their number
one market of iPhones they sell now
China is sitting there saying wait a
minute we sell more iPhones in this
country than anywhere else yet you're
giving our business to India who the
hell do you think you are right then on
the back end the real war that's taking
place is the semiconductor chips and
there's different levels to the
semiconductor chips that's being built
and China's specialized in the cheapest
kind to make the easiest kind to make
where some countries have specialized on
a tough kinds to make when it comes on
to semiconductor chips this is why China
can't stand Taiwan being there this is
why China wants Taiwan because Taiwan
specializes in building the extremely
technical semiconductor chips that the
rest of the world uses and then there's
complete other aspects to this that you
can get even deeper on so taiwan's going
to play play a very important role you
know we can't have a Russia Ukraine or a
you know Israel Palestine Gaza Armenia
aeran turkey we can't have that taking
place with Taiwan Taiwan needs to stay
separate that needs to stay protected
how we do that I don't know how we're
going to do that we're getting involved
in one too many wars but if if Taiwan
stays free and China relies on them
because China destroyed the world during
Co absolutely destroyed we realize 80%
of medications being built there 80% the
technology that we need is being built
there they controlled everything car
pricing use prices went up 50% like what
are you talking about you mean to tell
me I bought this car for $90,000 it's
used you're willing to pay me $130,000
yes are you serious yes why we don't
have chips to make cars are you kidding
me no Rolexes they were making Rolexes
for 18 months they didn't have equipment
to make Rolexes you go to a Rolex shop
that had one one watch like what do you
have we only have one watch can I order
Rolex no we're 12 months you're not
going to get are you serious yes nothing
this is what was going on at Rolex store
so again the stuff that gets me
optimistic is
India is Taiwan is we're committed to
the semiconductor business here uh the
things that concern me is China is
erdogan being wanting to be involved in
the Israeli War because most people
don't realize the most powerful military
in the Middle East is not Israel Israel
is powerful but Israel has 300,000
soldiers of which I think 150 is
reserved turkey has nearly 400 active
350,000 active Soldiers the number one
military in the Middle East if Turkey
gets involved you know so we have all
these dead things that we're looking at
obviously the military-industrial
complex which aenar talked about where
be careful with these companies like Ron
and Boeing and General Dynamics and
these guys that are making a lot of
money when there's Wars we have to be
careful with that taking place we have
to be very careful with that when that's
taking place
but uh yeah it's very complicated very
complex Ray doio says a depression could
be possibly around the corner a lot of
these guys are fearing what is taking
place today Michael bur shorted the S&P
500 $1.6 billion of his client's money
and now he did it in a way where you
know you're kind of protected but still
he's not optimistic about the S&P 500
what it's going to be doing uh one too
many moving parts for us to sit there
what will happen the rich are still
going to get rich the innovators are
still going to find a way to you know
win the people who learn how to use AI
on their side they're going to advance
and Excel even more the acceleration and
the disparity between the rich and the
poor is going to get wider and wider and
wider why because most people are going
to spend majority of their lives on
Instagram on YouTube on Tik Tok they're
not going to learn a new skill set
they're not studying AI right now
they're not studying technology right
now they're not learning new skill sets
right now Harvard
did an article Harvard Business Review
did an article saying to stay
competitive right now every 18 months
you have 10 new skill sets to learn as
an executive it wasn't like that it used
to be 10 new skill set every 5 years now
we have to learn 10 new skill sets every
18 months how the hell do we keep up so
so that this is the part where you know
we talked about the only the paranoid
survival like right now you have to be
looking at this shit's out there what
part of it do I control what part of it
do I have not no control over if not a
billionaire or a hecta or a
decamillionaire man I got to figure out
a way to increase my market value or
else I'm going to get crushed you're
going to over the next 10 20 years if
you're going to spend more time on
Netflix more time watching all these
shows more time playing all these games
more time watching all these Tik Tok
Instagram if you're going to spend more
time on that than building value for
yourself and learning new skill sets yes
the Market's not going to favor you the
next 18 to 36 months but if you do that
fortunately for that Community they're
going to be okay this doesn't mean a
recision is still not coming though okay
so let's start pulling apart some of the
issues so the geopolitical part of this
comes down to is there something that we
can do to position ourselves um you were
talking earlier about we create a matrix
and it's like okay do we go to war how
bad is it like all the different
scenarios and we run through them um so
but let's sort of put the pieces on the
table we have um global conflict
and that's going to do what it's going
to do we need to think about what the
plan of attack is there how we position
ourselves well we have the debt crisis
which is just probably the thing that
weighs the heaviest on my mind it seems
the most inevitable and because it's so
in plain sight and not at all sexy but
nobody's freaking out that one makes me
the most nervous because you can just
run the math and it seems inevitable
that it things have to break for that to
work um
you've got the what we'll call the Cold
War of manufacturing and where that's
going Apple China India all competing
but ultimately how do people begin to
actually put together a battle plan so
one of the you you had a really good
video about advice for young men and one
of the things that you said was you need
to be aware of what's going on and I
really woke up to that at the beginning
of co co was a grand uh uh moment where
it's like look behind the curtain
there's The Wizard of Oz and I began to
see how things were actually um
happening that was very revelatory and
just as if you want to be an
entrepreneur the ironic advice that I'm
going to give you is you need to learn
about the body because if you can get
control of your body if you can change
your physique you're going to find
discipline consistency you're going to
see that it really adds up to an actual
transformation and you can apply all of
that to um business ones are yeah to
business to anything really once you
begin to understand how the world
actually works now you can begin to
position yourself to whether any storm
but you really do have to understand how
the pieces move around the chessboard
how you're being manipulated um and I
don't it certainly has not then provided
me a sense of Clairvoyance and oh I know
exactly what to do but I feel like it
makes me ask a better caliber of
question to me the caliber of question
right now is
what is the position someone should be
working themselves into so I'll paint
the picture that I think and then tell
me if you disagree if there's a better
thing okay number one I think because
only the paranoid survive there's
actually two things you need to be
paranoid about right now paranoia number
one is you can pull out of the market
too soon and Miss real opportunities and
since no one is going to be able to
accurately forast the timing you have to
be thoughtful about that so one strategy
might be just that you dollar cost
averag in every day make sure that you
have a certain amount of savings so that
you're not going to find yourself in a
panic situation and as Morgan hous said
uh the the whole purpose of having cash
in a bull market is to make sure that
you don't have a force sale in a bare
market and I thought that was a a really
wise way so U what I'm going to present
to people is there's so many variables
on the table and I don't know how
they're going to go I just want you to
be in a position where you have
optionality so we're going to optimize
for options to do that you're going to
want to be largely in um cash and index
funds which is not going to sound sexy
and when I say cash I'm talking money
market treasury bills something like
that five points right now yep which is
[ __ ] amazing yep all day every day
I'll take it uh now would not be the
time in my opinion to invest in anything
where you're not just an absolute
complete expert where you have so much
disproportionate knowledge that you're
able to really recognize a deal when you
see it so I've heard you talk a lot
about some commercial real estate stuff
that you're looking at because you know
things are going to go on sale you oddly
enough I still find this so fascinating
you really understand the baseball card
market so you'll know a deal when you
see a deal so it's like that to me
optionality cash um only investing
either sort of blindly in index stocks
not just completely removing yourself
because you could miss you know it could
be six months a year before two years
before this is who who knows we really
can't predict it but that we are in a
time of such volatility that if you are
not taking every step with sort of
Maximum paranoia uh you're making a
mistake so that's I'm sure if somebody
were here they'd have a lot of questions
for that but that's my rough guidance to
myself I think that was fantastic I
think it was fantastic and we're very
aligned look I mean here here's also the
thing right like where you're you're
sitting there watching some of these
guys sitting on a lot of cash why are
they sitting on a lot of cash are they
they're sitting on a lot of cash in in
case [ __ ] it's the fan is that what
they're doing or they just kind of
sitting on a lot of cash wondering I
don't really know what's going when I
say people I mean work bshar haway I
mean these these guys have a lot of cash
right now they're sitting on the table
and uh you know maybe they're not buying
value stocks yet because they don't yet
believe value stocks are here Burkshire
hathway okay if you're not in this
business if if you're not in the
business of Investments financial
adviser broker day trader don't play
around do not play around and get crazy
about it um crypto a lot of people got
into crypto and NFD and that was not
their world they didn't know about it
they lost a lot of money I mean couple
guys made $90 million but the people
that bought their stuff lost $89 million
but they got their money there's a lot
of guys that made the money in nfts but
it was a gamble for everybody and
everybody's like oh my God but I believe
it in all this other stuff okay great
that's pretty crazy you know what about
this and what about that now does that
mean nfts are going away absolutely not
my kids still buy stuff on robloxs and
skins and all that there's an element of
it that is not going to go away
guaranteed is there 95% of nfts that are
not coming back yes probably some of
them are going to be gone again my
opinion I I have interest
in things I know
about and I'm interested in like right
now you know I'm looking at stuff the
card Market got destroyed the last 6
months destroyed guys are sitting on big
cards they were thinking they're going
to make a lot of money on it they're not
right now okay cars that would have sold
for $2 million two years ago are selling
for $400,000 today but they're going to
end up selling for that value they're
not going away because it's art it's
non- duplicatable assets you can't
duplicate these pieces especially if
it's things that are very few of okay so
if one of one they're not going to go
away art Jamie Diamond's got a $900
million art art collection why Dave Dana
White is telling me about a picture he
has in his uh office he showed me this
yesterday that he paid $200,000 for it
that picture is probably worth $8 to $10
million today art money in art being
made again non duplicatable assets are
very very valuable whatever there's few
of very valuable but only touch it if
you know a lot about it if you don't
don't even get close to it if you know
nothing about crypto don't even get
close to it don't get too crazy oh my
God I'm hearing you know Bitcoin is
going to go to 100,000 it may go to
500,000 but don't do it because you're
guessing cuz somebody else said it do it
because you've done a lot of due
diligence in it so if you don't want to
have that kind of a risk tolerance
indexing is the way to go to play it
safe now to to the small community of
crazies that have an itch and a
tolerance for madness
Okay this isn't everybody this is some
when you have a certain amount of money
I'm talking to my Goldman guy he comes
in we're having our conversation he says
hey here's what I think we can do with
this amount of money I said okay what
about
it he says here's a strategy we can use
the next 90 days I said okay I said do
you have any questions for me he says I
got one question for you are you okay if
in the next six months we lose $55
million in
this what a great question just straight
up I'm
like no I'm not okay with this that's a
big nut he says uh no problem totally
get it then we can't go the way that
this is one of the options we can go in
because what do you think are the chance
of a World War II happen next 6 to 12
months I don't know man I don't know if
I'm at 50% but I'm at 10% well 10 is
pretty high yeah I agree okay if that
happens how bad is it going to be you
know like during Co that went to 18,000
I don't know if you remember for that
minute that down went to 18,000
everybody's like holy [ __ ] what's going
on but very quickly went back to 32,000
so it recovered very quickly okay so
what does this mean if you think a
possibility of craziness is going to
happen that you keep cashing it happens
you can buy in dollar cost average okay
yes you think you're that brilliant that
you can time it historically very few
people have been able to do it and those
who did got purely lucky do you want to
be part of that camp because most people
historically what happened to them they
missed being in the market on the five
best days right and missing those five
best days ended up costing the
difference between making 133% over a
20-year period to making 7.8% correct
and that's a lot of money by the way
between those two so if that's not the
world you want to play don't do it don't
at all do it for me the game we're
playing is a different game the game
is there's going to be a lot of assets
for sale the next couple years okay and
if you made the right choices and you
have cash and some of these assets
don't perform the next couple years
there's the opportunity to pick up
assets there's the opportunity to pick
up small businesses I'm talking to a guy
who runs
a you know a a business that they're
doing 34 million a year and I said how
many companies are there in the
marketplace that you could buy right now
that are between 5 to10 million there's
at least eight how many of them can't
stand you one of them we never talk I
said okay the other seven how many of
them love you three of them do the other
four know you they know of me but don't
have a relationship get it close to them
as soon as possible make the following
phone call he said what do I tell these
guys this what the call sounds like hey
John listen man we're both in the same
industry how's business and you'll know
by their answer how it's doing and
you're going to say oh great unlike XYZ
we did 32% last month over last year
approv okay great guess what that's not
who you want to talk to next call you
got six more left okay hey Larry how are
things oh um yeah I mean look I mean
some areas we're doing good some
areas why what what's going on did
somebody tell you something okay boom
check what's the conversation Larry
here's what's going on the reason why
I'm calling you we're getting calls from
guys in our space and some of them are
not want are not doing as well as they
thought they were going to do and
they're about to run out of cash and
they're calling us because we have
access to certain relationships and
contracts and technology that they want
to take advantage of I thought just to
give you a call because we're within the
same space are you in a place right now
where you want to entertain possibility
of a partnership where we can help you
with our company or no if no list I'm
not going to impose but if you are maybe
we can have that
conversation 5c
pause uh you know about nine months ago
I would have told you to go to hell but
uh yeah maybe we can talk
perfect um when do you want to come to
the office or would J us to come to your
office would it be okay if we first met
at a coffee shop away from everybody no
problem let's do that then you go sit
down what's going on look man I don't
know if I want to do because I heard
this and I heard that and I heard this I
don't want to be ripped off and I don't
want to be this and I don't want that
bro let's just see what we can do with
the numbers if we can't great it we can
we'll support you go do your thing then
the conversation starts so there's
different levels right now the
marketplace if you have cash a lot of it
companies are going to be for sale the
next three six 12 months and there's
going to be a lot of opportunities for
you to increase your market share within
the industry if not you're somebody that
doesn't have a very high risk tolerance
do not screw around the next 6 12 months
thinking you are no stradamus and you
can predict the future because the
market is going to destroy you it's
undefeated yeah yeah timing the market
is a ludicrous proposition people
nonetheless do it but what I find is
that it actually attracts people that
have a gambling mentality that was my
biggest surprise getting into crypto
because I don't have have a gamblers
mentality at all uh so I just had a
failure of theory of mind so I did not
see that coming and then I was in a chat
group and I realized oh my God all of
these people are poker players I was
like this is the same mentality like to
them they're getting a gambler's high
right now of taking a risk on some crazy
coin and you know rolling the dice and
seeing if they can time everything
correctly and I just thought whoa okay
that's a a very different Beast so yeah
in given that my goal is to help people
put together ideas that are actually
going to help serve them um this to me
feels like the time to learn what
paranoia positive paranoia really is
success is really a game of mixing
optimism and paranoia you're going to
need both and if you don't have a
constant sense of this could all go
wrong I could be wrong I could have the
timing wrong maybe there really will be
a recession maybe there won't be a
recession
um if right now feels like Peak
predictability you're really in trouble
that would be the thing I would just red
flag instantly if you feel like you have
a real sense of what's going on uh yeah
I would say not the right move and so
figuring out okay how do we deal in a
time of massive uncertainty what I find
so interesting about Ray Delio and it
makes me very sad that he doesn't like
to talk about this is that Ry is
extraordinarily good at understanding
the historical trend
the problem is everything is sort of
plus or minus 50 years and it's like
when you've got a swing like that
there's just almost nothing you can do
with it but let me ask you do you see
because I think one of the real um one
of the real roads maybe it's a 0.1%
chance maybe it's a 70% chance uh what
do you think the odds that we are
already in some sort of Roman Empire
like decline meaning already in it and
that it will happen in the next 10 to 15
years
um I don't I don't know if we're there
I'm not in I'm not in the Doom and Gloom
yet
why because um the great thing about
capitalism is what here's the best thing
about capitalism cap ISM prevents you
from
doing stupid things because it's going
to hurt your capital
okay when I recruited salespeople over
the years I gave score there's a scoring
system in this book choose your enemies
wisely on who you can have your running
mates 15 qualities for running mates and
you score them based on six different
qualities okay I would look at guys and
I would say which one of the people I
work with is going to give me the least
amount of headaches and here's what I
learned okay extremely good-looking guys
and girls single in their 20s gave me
the biggest headaches why because
everybody wanted to be with them and
testosterone levels high at that level
and guess what they're going to fool
around you may be high one month and
kill it next month you're dating three
girls in the office and one of my best
girls who made a lot of money last year
you just broke her heart you left her
for another girl she can no longer come
to the office cuz she's embarrassed and
she left us to
company so do that for about 3 years and
then go see 17 therapist who have no
clue what sales is like then you're
going to realize I have to change my
Approach then I'm sitting there and
saying man that guy over there is so
boring dude he is so boring nothing's
exciting about him but he went from
making $500 a month selling Insurance to
$1,000 a month three months later to
making $2,000 a month 3 months later to
making $4,000 a month a year later then
he's making $6,000 a month 6 months
later then a year later he's making
$8,000 a month then three and a half
years lat is making $18,000 a month
steady man you are there's nothing about
you that inspires me but you know what
here's what I learned he was married and
he had
kids so what's the point he has to make
it
work he has to make it work cuz he has
to protect those two kids that he has he
has a mortgage he has to make it work he
can't go screw around he's married the
likelihood of him going and clubbing and
partying with all the other single
people and smoking and doing ecstasy is
lower so I realized I have to invest my
time in people who are the most bankable
longterm stable home stable relationship
more things to live for more things to
work hard for more things that'll
prevent you from making stupid decisions
perfect now bring that into the Roman
Empire following all this other stuff
okay Jamie Diamond is not going to want
to screw up what he's doing and his
legacy is going to matter to him because
there's no way in the world he's going
to let Sandy wild be able to say I told
you guys that guy failed he was a nobody
he's not going to let that happen and
he's running the most you know company
that every day s trillion dollar they
see come in and out JP Morgan Chase
right um
Apple
Amazon Gates
Microsoft these guys have assets are
they going to let something crazy happen
to it I don't know
musk who is standing up against the
establishment he's not okay with what
the establishment is trying to do and
with social media a lot of this
bullshit's being exposed whether it's
talking about ESG and what Black Rock
and you know they're trying to do or
open Society Foundation or these Dei
scores CI scores which California is
famous for they're getting exposed right
and people are talking about it so
social media is allowing us to hold
people accountable I don't know if you
saw what just happened right now this
week with Supreme Court having a
discussion to say social media companies
cannot take anything off their websites
whoa this week so censorship at the
highest level you don't have the right
to take anything down people can post
whatever they want that's crazy if we go
that direction was that a preliminary
preliminary it's not yet no it's fully
preliminary you got to look into it yes
so you got my attention so so because
Supreme Court is now what 5'4 right so
now it's kind of like they can impose
and kind of push the envelope there okay
and they can protect sanity in America
with some of the ways that businesses
have been bullying people during coid Co
what it did do which was great it was so
awesome in one area you know what it was
what's that quote you know absolute
power you know uh reveals what this
person's driven by right you know and
and Lincoln said if you want to test
someone's character give him power and
see what they do guess what during coid
who did we give power to fouchy CDC
California New York uh governors of some
states little it too much better they
were like Emperors pretty much you know
hey if somebody in La you see them
without wearing a mask text this word
and we'll find him and d d what are you
talking about you're paying people in LA
to snitch on other people it's a
part-time job what do you do for a
living I snitch I make six grand a month
really yeah what an incredible way of
making money
so during Co if we're not oblivious and
not naive we realize what the people of
power really wanted to do and we saw
that in Europe everybody's walking
around with their coid passport and
they're kind of doing this kind of stuff
um so to me it was fantastic to really
see them show their cards oh this is
what you're trying to do to America
we're not going to let that happen what
did that do it got guys like Rogan to
flip I'm no longer on your side you got
guys like Elam musk oh so you were full
of [ __ ] the entire time I thought you
were trying to do something good got it
I'm not part of your Camp I'm GNA go by
Twitter Scott Galloway this guy's full
of [ __ ] Professor Galloway there's no
way in the world he's going to buy he's
bluffing all of you he's fooling all of
you there's no way he's going to buy
Twitter Elon Musk bought 100% of Twitter
and now Scott Galloway on Bill Mah last
week with Andrew Kom saying we need to
show some Grace we were wrong during Co
we were wrong during Co I'm sorry
Professor Galloway did you show Grace
did you show Grace oh now you want Grace
but you never gave everybody Grace and
you're this professor from New York
who's had exits of a couple companies
and you've not taken salary from UC
Berkeley respect you you simply go and
do the work I've seen the money you've
given to Berkeley three and a half $4
million but you don't have any Grace you
didn't show people Grace so what
happened now but it was beautiful you
saw what universities were doing Harvard
got exposed during Co no more campus you
guys got to go home okay so does that
mean the annual tuition is still 60,000
or is discounted to 20,000 no no still
60,000 what for what you're not giving
me food you're not giving me place to
stay you still want me to pay $60,000
yes we do Bingo you just showed your
true colors beautiful that was fantastic
hey we want you guys to go and work from
home really yes all right [ __ ] so I'm
living in New York I'm working for x
company they're pay me 250 Grand a year
I can't live normal life in New York
I'll go live in Florida work from home
except now I'm not paying the taxes oh
no no no no we don't want you to work
from home why now I can work from home
from Florida no we want you to come back
to New York now got it so you screwed up
the policies but now I'm in Florida I'm
not coming back to New York because I
actually love Florida and I'm stuck here
and people from California went and work
from home in Texas and now they're
saving at 133% now they're not coming
back so they were like oh people going
to come come back they never came back
right the people never came back so this
this Empire is falling the great
equalizer
Tom is social media if social media
sticks around and they can't silence
people from sharing their thoughts and
opinions I'm not talking about people
getting up there and saying we should go
do this I'm not talking about that I'm
saying hey what about this and we start
questioning things then the people of
power that revealed their cars not
everybody but the establish that wants
to control more the people they're like
yeah we're not we're not doing that bro
you know what do you do if you're
playing poker with somebody okay and
you're going for the river and you
didn't hit you know F you know whatever
uh uh pick something you didn't hit your
three of a kind okay you missed
everybody you got two pair it's a jack
you got a jack you got a jack on the
board all of a sudden you're about to
Bluff the guy maybe go in 50% of what
the chip is you know there
but one card accidentally falls on the
ground and you see it it's an Ace and
there's an ace on what are you going to
do what are you going to
do you already know you lost so guess
what the establishment revealed their
cards and we saw it and if we
don't realize it and do something with
it and they still move their agenda it
was our fault all along but if we site
and we unify and we come together saying
hey guys we the people have the power
they ain't going to push us around we
love this country let's fight for what
makes this country great let's go and
support what this country was great
about let's bring it back to that let's
be a little bit more responsible let's
have better incentive programs let's
expect better policies from them let's
hold them accountable to what they say
they're going to do now we can go in the
better Direction and we encourage
certain people to run and get involved
in politics and office so I don't think
it's going to happen because I think on
one end capitalist the rich people are
not going to want to lose all them all
their money to their eventually going to
be like yeah I don't support what you're
doing Soros yeah I don't support what
you're doing Charlie Munger said
something very interesting he says look
I love Larry thinkink but I don't want
him as my Emperor what a thing to say
Munger here's a guy that's 94 years old
I don't know how old he is but mid 90s
he saying hey I respect Larry fin but I
don't want him as an emperor because
they know what Larry's trying to do
people are not dummies right so those
types of people I think are going to
fight each other enough and if we keep
our eyes open
this will continue to be the greatest
country in the world and hopefully even
better if we rise up to it if not the
best days are behind us if we don't
learn our lesson from the last three
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Theory it's interesting I have a
slightly different take if I put my I'm
paranoid hat on uh so I think that at
some point we started attacking the very
idea of structure itself which is how
you end up getting into the gender
conversation and once you start if it
takes hold and it's a very difficult
argument to figure out how to be both
both compassionate and draw hard
boundaries you put lines and boundaries
and one thing we didn't talk about is
you create rituals that create lines
that I'm no longer a child I'm now an
adult like really clear demarcation
points instead of like oh transition
effortlessly anytime from anything to
anything it's one of those ideas that
sounds awesome and it sounds loving and
it sounds caring but the outcome of it
is is to tear at the um infrastructure
that holds the society up and so it's
pretty interesting this is something
that um Douglas Murray who I have not
ever sat down with but in very familiar
with his work he's talked a lot about
Camille laalia uh has talked a lot about
this that in
endstage Empires they become obsessed
with pulling apart the um structures of
the society and it tends to manifest as
a conversation around the ultimate
structure which is male female so this
is one of those it's a a positive
feedback loop and again I'm I'm just
wearing my paranoid hat I'm I'm not
betting against America I love it I want
to be here um in fact I I this is going
to be weird I can't believe I'm about to
say something that's going to sound
political it is not meant to be
political but I want to fly an American
flag I want to remind people that this
is a beautiful country and that it's
worth fighting for ideals of personal
freedom etc etc uh and that the way that
we rebuild is by putting structure in
place that has a metric associated with
it so we can see whether we're moving in
the right direction or not that would be
the the thing so anyway it this feels
like a positive feedback loop I don't
have a clear picture on how at a
societal level we unwind it but I do
understand it at the individual level
and the things that we as an individual
person can do uh to make sure that we
are doing something that will be very
sweet you're very
sweet and here's what I mean by it
um I am so confused when I hear a guy
who created thousands of jobs created a
billion dollar of value for people who
owned
Equity that you're worried about saying
I don't want to be political about the
American flag because it may offend
somebody no I didn't say that I know
that but what I'm saying to you is even
the fact that you gave that
qualification to me is
um is where I uh I don't think we need
to be there here's what I mean by it I'm
talking at this Christian School that my
kids go to and the the dean what is what
is above a Dean whatever the what do
they call the person that runs the
school what's I thought it was Dean no
there's one other guy there's something
about it that uh whatever it is the dean
reports to this guys do you guys know
what that's called or no not principal
it's a different name they have for him
Headmaster is it Headmaster sure okay so
Headmaster and uh he gets up there and
he's giving this talk to 600 kids and
he's bringing me up Veterans Day he's
likew you know America's not perfect and
we have this and we have flaws and all
this like peak of Co like a year and a
half ago I'm standing there I'm like
dude like where have you lived you know
have you lived in Iran have you lived in
other places like what what they think
about this place and I get up and I and
I say first of all thank you for this
and ba and I said America is the
greatest country in the world okay
and you know we don't care if you're a
Christian I don't know what your faith
is we're getting along I'm Middle
Eastern bro you're white every time
we're together we get along best
conversations when I'm talking to you
fantastic convers I got so much respect
for you to build what you build your
wife came in sweetheart gave me a hug
warm welcome your peers your people here
how you working how you're moving what
you're doing having a blast creating
great content great conversations but
but I do think we need
to we need to have some um pride in how
great of a country we live in I think we
need to sell it I had Governor Des
sentus on the podcast two days ago we
did an hour live podcast he flew into
the office and it was a great
conversation he's one of the candidates
that's U you know potentially
presidential candidate and I said can
you sell America please sell America and
you know he did his best to sell America
and his point of view but I think we
need to do a better job selling America
saying selling the ideas of America
here's what happened the last couple
years I'm having this conversation I
don't know if I'm having this
conversation with Rogan or whoever I'm
having maybe it was on the Rog yeah it's
on the Rogan podcast we're talking on
communities that hurt America okay I
said one is the tolerant
Christians who hurt America they're like
it's okay it's okay it's you're either a
Christian or you're not you can say
whatever you want about Muslim Muslims
but what guess guess what Muslims are
they believe their religion okay you're
not going to be able to say things about
their Prophet you can't go say something
about Prophet Muhammad see what happens
go say something about Jesus see what
happens yeah it's okay he's just upset
you know okay cool all right the other
one is Libertarians because Libertarians
who are like do your thing bro as long
as you do your thing I'm good do your
thing do your thing do your thing do
your thing do your thing all right now
they're doing their thing with your kids
now what do you want to do it's too late
it's in your school well no no no I
didn't say that well I'm sorry you said
libertarian to each his own well no no
no that doesn't mean you come and do
this to my kids no it's called as long
as you do your thing I'm good to do your
thing they came back and haunted you
through your kids no I'm not cool with
that well then maybe maybe you're not
really a Libertarian maybe there's a
different element to your politics that
you got to really reconsider the the the
wealthy you know conservatives who raise
good kids who all of a sudden
have all this money but they're
afraid God forbid it leaks that they
have an element of conservative oh my
God I may lose my Audi I may lose this I
may L and go we won't be invited to
those parties and they're not going to
like us and today I'm having a
conversation with Chris Cuomo CUO and I
have turned into very good friends we
don't agree together politically we have
a great conversation to get I'm at his
house in in uh Sag Harbor and we have
lunch and we go to his place and all of
a sudden he surprised me with a call
with Robert down Junior hey what's up
pbd what's up Robert down and I say hey
kids come see what this is oh my God
it's imagine a reaction of kids who
watch Iron Man die and they're like
crying saying he's alive he's alive he's
alive right here in the flesh but we're
having these conversation I'm s thinking
to myself did these guys know my
political positions that I take and
we're getting along it's okay it's not
the end of the world this is what I
believe in you know but these
Republicans that conservatives that took
their money and and they're like look as
long as we protect our money just buy
real estate have some assets but don't
do anything with all this money we have
no problem the other guys went and
bought New York Times the other guys
went and bought wo Time Magazine China
owned Forbes 95% of Forbes was owned by
China and 20121 international woman of
the year is who Hillary Clinton what she
doesn't run a business how about Oprah
winfy how about Cheryl Sandberg you give
it to Hillary what what did she do in
business Forbes is all business the guy
who ran Forbes the son the guy who
started it was his father but the guy
that ran it that took it to the next
level he had a jet Google this it says
capitalist tool his jet on the corner
the name of the plane was capitalist
tool his yacht it would said capitalist
tool the helicopter said capitalists
tool these are the tools a capitalist
use he had all biggest collection of
those eggs you know the Russian eggs
there's a name for those Russian eggs
Fab Fab that was estimated to be half a
billion dollars W this he had he had 15
of them his best friend was Elizabeth
Taylor best friend for his 7 birthday
bir party if you've never seen this
guy's documentary his 70th birthday
party everybody's there you know what he
gives to everybody on his birthday party
a Rolex who does that this guy's a
capitalist at the core and guess what we
admired back then wow life of the Rich
and Famous today is life of the poor and
the Miserables no we're admiring things
that people are grown up to want to
pursue no we got to edify the guys that
busted their tailes to build a company
we got to edify the people that are
creating economy we got to edify people
that are going out there being good net
positive to society we need more Tom
biles in America but those three
communities and I can keep going with a
couple other communities but I'll stick
to those three
communities I think they have they have
they have a u they have given others a
lot of power as a as a as a guy who was
an atheist for 25 years of my life in
the Army I've told this story before in
the Army I was invited to go to this uh
uh uh camp with this man 70-year-old man
and you know we were able to jump into
into this Lake and play poool and all
this stuff but every night for 1 hour he
had to sit down with him and listen to
him read the Bible and I would sit in
the back I'm like dude you can tell me
about Bible all you I want you go back
to Iran and see what I saw when we got
bombed on go ahead go see what I saw go
see the parks I used to go to and these
buildings that were torn down when I see
what's going on right now in Palestine
Israel I live this I the whole
alarm T Jo tab Jo
ales attention attention red signal
means that planes have crossed the
border the enemy is here you know what
that does when I listen to this I I go
to YouTube sometimes and listen to to
see how quickly I can go to the
8-year-old kid and see it the other day
my sister sends me a picture says hey
this is me and you at 8 years old you
remember this I said okay what's the big
deal with this picture we got a lot of
pictures like this she says you know how
you always talk about the windows dad
used to tape look at the windows I see
the windows it's the tapes from my dad
they put the tapes because when bombs
would explode they didn't want the glass
to explode all over us they wanted to
stick together that's what we did in
Iran and you know so
today when you see this whole concept
of you know I'm at this camp in the
military you know he gives me a Bible he
says this my parents gave me this Bible
December 24th of 1974 and son I think
you need this more than me I said sir I
promise you're giving it to the wrong
guy he says just please take it from me
you need this I said I don't need this
keep it it's a gift your parents gave
you I have the Bible till today he gives
it to me I don't read the Bible it sits
at my barracks in the Army but I started
praying three times a week three times a
day every day and here's how my prayer
was God I don't believe you exist I
think it's for weak people but if you do
exist cool let's see what you got if you
don't it's going to feel good talking to
myself anyways because I know nobody in
boot camp now from Iran there's not a
lot of Iranians in boot camp
So eventually that idea of having faith
is what Hitler feared he did not want
people to have faith the whole Dietrich
Bon Hofer story if you read what he did
he didn't want people to have faith he
wanted to eliminate having faith does
that remind you of anything we can't
pray anymore we can't do the pledge
allegiance when kids go to school oh but
we should learn about lgbtq stuff yeah
it makes a lot of sense let's take out
faith and let's replace it with somebody
may be gay you may be gay your mommy and
daddy don't know so guess what happens
parents in Florida are saying we don't
feel comfortable because our kids want
to transition and Governor the santis
doesn't allow so we're moving to
California they're coming to your state
and people have started making decisions
saying it's okay if they take these
pills under 18 years old what are you
talking about what are you talking about
so an under under 18 years old I can't
own a gun I can't join the Army I can't
under 16 I can't own a car I can't have
a driver's I can't drink alcohol but I
can change my sex you tell me somebody
who has Common Sense sell that to me
over 18 go do it totally get it under 18
in what
logical manual of a group of a 100
people that can reason they could say
this makes sense there is no none of
that gaslighting so we have to sit there
and listen to it and say and by the way
I know this is offbrand for you this is
not the kind of conversations you have
on on you know I don't want you to get
uncomfortable but I am completely
comfortable for me I think we need to go
back to square
one we need to go sit there and like I
was having this conversation with a
group of people who are not Christians
and I said you got five countries to
live in where do you want your kids to
be raised a country that's atheist they
don't believe in anything a country
that's Catholic a country that's Muslim
a country that's this a country that's a
country country that's Christian what do
you want to raise your
kids where do you want to raise your
kids they're like well probably more
country that's this okay why why because
the values and principles are XYZ great
no problem even we had a the debate the
other day had two Muslims and had two
Christians on a podcast and they're
debating each
other and the guy's talking about all
these things and then I said listen I I
I have a lot of Muslim friends I have
great conversations
why don't people immigrate to Muslim
countries why do Muslims come to America
I don't know why do we in America have
all these different denominations all
over the place nobody cares why don't
they move in to these other places oh
it's purely economical okay why AR we
moving into many of these other places
that economically they have a lot of oil
why are we not doing that well it's this
this that totally get it by the way to
the Christians who get upset and like
well you know but you don't understand
what Muslims are doing and they're going
to do this and eventually they're going
to run America of course they are how
could you say that they're having 2.9
kids per women and the rest are not not
even close so mathematically yes we're
eventually going to have a Muslim
president if we haven't already had one
eight years ago we're going to have
Congress being controlled by them and
that's also Senate on the competitive
side instead of being upset about it why
don't you start having more kids we're
not having enough kids so the people
that should be having more kids are not
having having enough kids and the people
that shouldn't be having kids are having
way too many kids this is also a problem
that we're not talking about so to me we
have a lot of
issues some we can address the next 3 to
five years some that we can fix and make
progress on the next 10 years some of
it's going to be 20 and then some of it
is what Bray doio talks about and that
he's talking Investments but I'm talking
a cycle of 50 years that it's going to
take us but these are the types of
things that we should have open dialogue
about we should be comfortable selling
uh America we got 53 million immigrants
in America more than any other country
in the world and it's not even close
there's a reason for we can ask the
question why maybe we offer the best
thing in the world and we need to
protect of that and people who come here
it shouldn't be I'm having this
conversation with one guy on my podcast
I said if an immigrant comes to America
who owes who does America owe immigrant
something was the Immigrant that owes uh
the the country something oh America was
the Immigrant America doesn't owe
immigrant
nothing
nothing the person coming here owes
America everything cuz they let you
in that's who owes the other person well
no you you're how could you think like
that you're thinking like what they did
a 100 years ago no no it's called
logic it's called logic you're allowing
me to come into your Homeland and you
owe me dude you don't owe me I owe you
thank you so how do you show gratitude
how how are you going to show gratitude
so you're an immigrant Now in America
how are you going to make America a
better place like like what we had
before when you would go to you know uh
um what's that island that you would go
to and you would show what talents
you're bringing and then would let you
into America Ellis Island Ellis Island
right okay so all what do you bring to
the table you know nothing I'm just
excited about the benefits you guys
offer but what do you bring to the table
we need to kind of present this argument
why should you earn the right to come to
America and what can we do to get the
best best immigrants coming here what
can we do to get the most educated
people coming here who are from IIT
graduate people what can we get the
people that are best in math that are
bringing something here these are very
basic Common Sense conversations that
the last three years people from
Academia and universities have confused
the hell out of kids where kids coming
out of college today are questioning
common sense at a guy that's one of my
seite Executives every time would talk
to him I would say how's your daughter
doing how's your daughter doing how's
your daughter doing he says breaks my
heart I said tell me why my daughter and
I were like this I spent $200,000
sending her to this XYZ School in
Illinois every year my daughter hated me
more by the fourth year she didn't even
want to come back to the house she moved
to LA wow I said you got to be kidding
me he says Pat I spent $200,000 to lose
my daughter now here's the thing odds
are my daughter's probably going to come
back but she may come back at 30 2 I
could lose 10 years of my daughter's
life at this age at this age I will look
at his face this is a performer this is
a rockstar he's a leader he's a multi
he's had multiple exits he's a leader
successful guy but you could see the
anguish on his face that's not cool
that's not cool so you want me to send
my kids to you and you pin them against
me and I'm the one that paid the money
to go to your college that's not okay
while you're sitting on $60 billion of
money in your endowment that you can
afford to pay every single student's
College tuition for the next 100 Years
yet you want us to pay you $60,000 per
you and I stay home instead of go to
your college yeah you you showed us who
you are and I I am not going to forget
it I'm going to impose and I'm going to
keep talking about this stuff and enough
people are going to sit there and say
that was an interesting conversation you
know maybe we need to think about that
babe did you hear what he just said did
you hear what she just said and then
collectively 2 3 4 5 10 years down the
line like I used to not be awakened to
see what's really taking place cuz my
head's down buil building a business I
don't care about politics I'm just
simply trying to build a business and
then all of a sudden you're like no man
I got four kids an 11 10 and a
7-year-old and a
2-year-old we got to kind of be involved
I know I went off tangent but when you
made that comment about I don't want to
be political
America I think you're the prime example
of what makes America great and we need
more people like you yeah so let me um
make sure what I said is clear so what I
said was I can't believe that this is a
political statement but it is loving
America shouldn't be political I wish I
could say who the following person is
because people know him uh but I have uh
somebody I'm friendly with I would not
call him a friend I just don't know him
well enough but uh people certainly know
his family and he said oh I put an
American flag up in front of my house
and I was like I guarantee that's going
to get torn down he was like yeah it
already has been and I I was like H I
hated that I that that was obvious that
in Los Angeles flying a flag is a
political statement that for many
borders on right-wing
extremist and that is so startling to me
as a child of the 80s where I was
supremely proud to be an American it was
awesome and I could take it for granted
I mean obviously not everybody in
America loved America but that's how it
seemed I thought all of us like there
was just enough people that were so
proud of America that you could take for
granted so I never knowingly ran into
anybody that didn't love America as a
kid it was an awesome feeling and as
that has waned I've often said to my
employees like I'm sad that you guys
didn't get a grow up in the 80s when you
knew and look true not true almost
doesn't matter but you knew America was
the greatest country in the world that
the world was going to get better by the
day you knew who the bad guys were you
knew who the good guys were and you were
it like we were exporting our culture
everywhere everybody wanted to come to
America it was awesome and to have
watched that flag is crazy now for me
the way that the you you speak as a um
Warrior for the cause that's my language
clearly not yours but like that's how
you feel to me and that isn't my natural
voice and I get a lot of [ __ ] from
people I respect a lot um in the natural
way that I talk uh you said I was very
sweet I'm actually not trying to be
sweet I'm trying to exist in the world
of actually understanding all the pieces
that are rep place so I can build a
strategy that will actually be effective
and so what I see is that you're you're
in a a fight over values and as long as
you understand that you're in a fight
over values and then you can either
realize you have to convert them
religiously because values are religion
you have to convert them religiously or
you have to defeat them I won't even get
into what that means but those are your
options and so I'm simply trying to be
honest with myself about what what the
battle really is because it isn't that
they don't understand your position it's
that they think you are wrong and that
you are going to ruin lives and I think
that's how you think about them that it
is uh they are wrong and they're going
to ruin lives and I will say people with
ineffective ideology are wrong and
they're going to ruin lives that's
certainly my stance so then it just
becomes a question of where do we where
are we all drawing lines about what's
right and what's wrong but once you want
like to me there are only two conflicts
you can have there is um much to do
about nothing where you just have
different base assumptions so we believe
different things to be true but we don't
even realize it so I believe the world
works this way you believe the world
works that way and if we could at least
least explain that to each other then we
could be like oh wow if the world really
did work that way then I would
understand why you see it that way
Collision of values is there is a God
God is good God is right and God gives
us these Commandments in a book and if
you adhere to them you're good and if
you don't adhere to them you're bad now
if I don't have that value now we've got
a problem because there's it's not that
you don't understand what I'm saying
like I don't believe in God I as far as
I can tell it is just self-evident that
there there is no God now however and
this gets where [ __ ] I drive people
crazy but since I know everyone has a
god-shaped hole in their heart and that
you eject religion at your [ __ ] Peril
and what we are living through right now
is this is what it looks like when you
eject religion it will get filled with
something because people have a
god-shaped hole in their heart they are
going to have a religion they are going
to have something that makes them feel
like a messiah 100% And the fact I've
heard heard you talk about this so I
know you know George S Soros literally
referred to himself as a God and said
that I have a messiah complex uh that I
worry sometimes will get out of control
it's like yeah that's the Human
Condition and so we all want to feel
like we have done something so Grand and
so joyful to this world that we feel a
bit of that Messiah complex
and I'm team be paranoid distrust
yourself that's my team I think people
blind themselves and act a [ __ ] fool
and they take everybody down with them
now I'm also optimistic and I know that
we're capable of love and so right now I
have kind of a uh a dark hat on because
I want people to understand what my
position is my position is people are
[ __ ] stupid they do dumb [ __ ] all the
time and I'm one of those dumb people
and so I'm really trying to understand
what's actually happening CU I have my
God as you said earlier they have their
God and I could get them to understand
my God which is probably rounded closest
to
freedom and they're still going to
disagree and now because I know how
violent and destructive humans can be
for the last three years I have been
like
oo you know when an earthquake first
starts you don't know if it's going to
be bad or really minor
when 2020 popped
off I'm very fortunate to have an
extraordinary view but from that
extraordinary view I could see La
burning and one of the photos on Twitter
was a picture of my house and it said
burn the
rich and I'm watching La burn as I'm
reading that tweet and I'm like well
then I feel the ground slipping
underneath me and I don't know how bad
it gets and
so I opened all this with Now's the Time
for paranoia I don't know what the
future holds maybe tomorrow everything's
great and Israel diffuses and Ukraine
and Russia diffuse and all is well and
Taiwan gets left alone for another
generation maybe that'd be awesome and I
don't know I don't know I can't predict
the future but godamn can I feel the
Sands moving under my feet Yes do I know
if it's about to be big or small no why
do create
content why did I start or why do I do
it now why do you do it now you don't
have to do it you you you have plenty of
money why do you do it you trying to be
famous I don't think so I don't have why
do you create content I need to be
famous uh I create content because I I I
don't think that's you I I don't see you
as a guy that's doing it because you
want can I take a selfie with you Tom I
don't see you as a guy like that yeah uh
I do it for one reason and one reason
only I really believe that I am of
average intelligence and the thing that
separates me and and my beautiful house
and all my money is that separates me
and all of that from an average person
is a set of ideas and these ideas don't
feel like they are mine I feel like I am
a steward of uh if I were really going
to put like hard language to it I'm a
steward of the Dow deing meets Carol
DW's mindset book with a little bit of
Angela Duckworth and Joo willink thrown
in for good measure those ideas are so
powerful and so effective that if anyone
adopts them they will make their life
better now once you know that that is
true if you have my
wiring then you want to get those ideas
out as fast as you [ __ ]
can so a I love seeing other people have
that moment of Awakening where they
realize that they're capable of more and
I'll tell you a story and this is um
this is a true [ __ ] story and it's
one of my favorite stories it's
tragic but I know it was real uh
somebody I love and care about very much
who at a time when nobody knew who I was
and I'm driving a Ford Focus I meet a
former drug dealer and he's working for
me and I say look don't bring violence
to my floor and I'll give you every
opportunity in the world because I can
tell you're smart and so we have this
packed and he comes in and he works and
he's incredible and he helps me unify a
line made up of both cryp and bloods
long
story and he's like hey originally I was
going to use this job as a front for my
drug money but like you've really shown
me that I can actually leverage my
intelligence to to do something straight
ended up being awesome this guy turned
his life around turned his family's life
around it was unbelievable it's one of
the things I'm most proud of in my life
is just having been some small part of
this guy's transformation ends up
getting killed by two kids who stole a
car [ __ ] stupid but whatever at his
funeral his daughter came up to me and
said um actually she said this from the
front of the room I want to thank Tom
and Lisa we all know my dad was a
gangster and you she didn't say totm
ideas but just to bring It full circle
you taught him a set of ideas they
changed his life and they changed mine
and she ended up going from almost
getting kicked out of school to uh being
valid dictorian of her class like seven
years later I mean just absolutely
unbelievable she's like our lives will
never be the same because of these ideas
and dude my whole life because I believe
in meaning and purpose it's the most
important thing I'm highly verbal I know
I'm good at this and so eight years ago
I said put me in front of a camera and I
will get these ideas out to the world
aggressively and that's why I do
it interesting so um profound story with
that guy by the way you know if you
don't bring violence to your blood Crips
unified and steal in the car they kill
him
um you know I I I think there are
certain people
who have the ability to communicate a
message and get people to see uh things
that others cannot see are almost
responsible to do something with those
gifts you can choose to be 100% selfish
and not do anything with it or you can
choose to do with her which you are
doing a lot with with the ideas where
the daughter says you know set of ideas
that change the way I view things let's
set Faith aside forget Faith we're not
debating Faith or God this is not the
podcast to do Faith or God that's a
simply a different conversation over
dinner if we even ever do
it but if you're a math guy and you're a
data guy and you're a guy that knows x +
yal
z then you know what works and what
doesn't
work you know what philosophies work and
doesn't
work you can take the position of you
know Patrick you have your ideas and the
people in California have their own
ideas and you know they have their
reasons for that and you as a capitalist
you know Freedom all this stuff it's
this
great
but there has to be a way to
measure and see which ideas produce
better
results and then if you do which is
proven then what's our job to do is our
job to sit on the sidelines and not
offend the people who were
wrong and let them keep harping and
convincing others that they're right is
our job to sit on the sidelines and
allow them to keep confusing kids in
universities is that our job to do is
our job to allow these guys that keep
asking for $60,000 of tuition today
which when you're looking inflation and
cost of living where cost of living's
increased since 1980
212% but cost of education has increased
1200% a thousand you mean education has
improved 1,000% over the last 40 years
you and I know it hasn't you and I know
a four-year degree doesn't have any more
meaning today than it did in 1980s maybe
it had more meaning in 1980 than today
because today our teachers are more
political figures and they're more
social you know organizers dividing
people against each other yeah so I
think I think for me I'm not worried
about the faith conversation I know what
it is to be an atheist I Was Won for 25
years I have my own reasons for doing
what I did for me it's more about a
numbers guy a data guy who watched
everybody and my mother's side believed
in rich people were greedy and my dad's
side believed poor people are
lazy and for my mom's side who were
communist whose Bible was The Communist
Manifesto and my dad that was an
imperialist it took me 20 years to
realize who was right maybe even 25 30
years to realize who was right we had a
family relative of ours his name was
Luther alas amazing man this was my guy
I looked at okay when we were when I was
a kid would' go to his house in Upland
you know where Upland is Upland is uh
couple hours away from here San Antonio
Boulevard closer to like uh Rancho
kumonga is where it's at like an hour
and a half away from here okay without
traffic it's 45 minutes to an hour once
year we'd go to his house you'd go all
the way up San Antonio then you'd make a
left on the street and at the end it's
his house he had a massive 40 foot bird
nest here bird cage here you'd pull up
he always had a Cadillac Park here he
like jaguar and his one of his relatives
Alfred would live here above the parking
lot above the garage and then you walk
into the door to the right was his
office you walk a littleit more hallway
all the way down is his bedroom you had
a jacuzzi in his bedroom room living
room here you'd make a left come down
here is the kitchen Big Island I would
always sit closest to the uh window my
backs to the street I would sit here and
I would watch them talk cuz I'm not
family my dad was best friends with his
brother since they were born in
Iran so luter was an entrepreneur he
made a lot of money he owned golf
courses if you went straight you made a
left you came here there was a pool
table he had a picture on the wall
everybody was dressed white family dog
daughter son everybody and then he had a
picture with Al Gore even though he was
a conservative why do you have a picture
with Al Gore good friends with Al Gore
as a conservative okay and he would go
outside he had a big TV here we would
watch to Bulls play pool swimming pool
outside changing room here like a small
little one-bedroom PLS basketball court
tennis court here and he had a garden of
fruit and all this stuff and I would
watch him how he would be with his kids
he would always poke and challenge him
to debate issues he would says I no
longer believe in God at a moment today
you guys have been sold a bag of Li
Jesus wasn't real and his kid would they
would lose their minds and they would go
on a three-hour debate and he would say
okay I'm back to believeing again and he
would say next thing such and such
president is making a worst decision
ever how could you say that that and it
was always how could you say that and
the whole family was
debating I was fascinated every year I'd
see him so from 13 years old to 18 I saw
him seven times and I saw this guy as a
possibility one day I can be like him
anyway was later on in life I ended up
winning in business and he died four
years ago three or four years ago we're
at rafi's place in glendel and his
daughter sees me Jackie and his son
Vladimir who's a pastor now San Jose
when I was a troubl teenager he invited
me to be part of this basketball
organization called the centry city
Basketball Association centry City
basketball we would play at Echo Park
terrible Community Echo Park is like not
a safe place at that time not terrible
Community not a safe place so shootings
all this stuff blood crib black diamonds
everybody would be there and we' play
basketball all of us so he was patient
with me as a kid and then I joined the
army and boom so we're at rafi's
place and I said Jack you want to say
something to your dad he says great I
said you mind if I come over no problem
20 people sitting at that table to have
a big family I says Uncle Luther can I
tell you something he says yes he stands
up I speak to him in Assyrian and
English like it's like Assyrian English
together Aramaic
I said you don't know this but for 10
minutes I recite Vivid memories I have
of what this man did okay and I kept
saying you did this one time and you
would do this and you would do that and
you said this to your daughter one time
you said this to your son I was sitting
there when you confused them with faith
and business and this this that and this
is how you would watch Michael play and
Magic play and you would do this and I'm
describing his entire house he no longer
lives in that house he's crying I said
you don't know this but you're the
reason I'm a businessman today if it
wasn't for you I wouldn't be where I'm
at today my dad played a role of love
and being a man but you played the role
of me being an
entrepreneur he inspired me and at 33
years old I go to my mom and I said Mom
can I ask you a question yes why' you
always say bad things about
Luther what did he do to you you always
said he's Rich he's greedy he's this
he's that and my mom I respect her a lot
for what she said to me she says you
know what maybe because once he made the
money and he was running his companies
we never saw him again I said Mom he's
busy he's running businesses we're not
family to him said no you're probably
right but I didn't like the fact that
didn't see him because I actually liked
him like you tell me this at 33 years
old do you know how much this affected
me when I was 13 14 years old I thought
this was a bad man he says no you're
right we just had this conversation my
mom's no longer a communist but at that
time you know that's the what's the
point
here the point here is
if you have proof that a certain way of
ideas and philosophies Works sell it
constantly and protect it and defend it
don't play vanilla don't play neutral I
think sometimes us you're no longer a
smalltime guy bro you're a very big guy
we got a lot of influence you got a lot
of people that follow what you got to
say and you're are very you know when
you kind of you do your humble brag
you're a super smart guy yeah you're
like you're a super smart guy I'm not at
your level of you're a very very smart
guy on the way you process issues and
what way you can talk and you're very
reasonable and non-emotional you stay
you know where you are when you're
explaining
it um I think it's a risk for us not to
defend the logical things that prove
that way worked better and then we sell
it over and over and over again because
eventually you're going to produce 50
other Tom Bill use 100 other Tom Bill
use and that's all it's going to take
you're not going to need to have another
million Tom bilos you just need 100
tomilu if another 100 tomilu do what you
do then we're protected the next 20 40
years but if we're a little bit too
timid and too careful to defend ideas
that have proven to have worked again
set aside Faith you can take Faith any
way you want to take it I think we have
to
be um louder Warriors like you use I use
that word True Believer Crusaders of
guys people [ __ ] about the rich people
don't pay taxes you know what percentage
of taxes Rich pay the top 5% pays 80% of
taxes what are you talking about no AOC
said this no no this is pure data how
dare you say that no no how dare she say
that and confuse the [ __ ] out of you
this is data guys this is not for me
this is how taxes was paid to the IRS I
never knew you sure about this go verify
it it's on the US Government website
that's insane of course it is but they
sold you a bag of goods and you bought
it because it was for sale stop going to
Macy's and looking for sale ideas pay
full retail and don't buy these ideas
that are nonsense because they're
stealing decades away from your life
that's the only difference for me where
like I remember 5 years ago when I
started three years ago when I started
talking politics dude trust me I
remember what everybody in the
marketplace said about about me I know
exactly what people were saying about me
because Ward would come back to me and
they would say kiss of death for pbd
he's
done we had 3 million subscribers at the
time and I um decide to talk politics
and I'm like dude I don't know how to do
this part because I know it's going to
piss a lot of people off but I'm
respectful and I'm curious and I'll talk
to anybody I don't care who you are you
can be a communist Professor from you
know Riverside County you can be you
know slavo xek you can be anybody I'll
sit down with you let's have a
conversation Nom chsky come on down
let's talk I don't have any problem
right but we started the podcast on a
separate Channel with zero subscribers
our first live podcast was 57 people
watching us we got seven comments we
were so excited now imagine how hard
that is to do because you got a 3
million subscriber channel on this side
and now you have to start from scratch
right you know about this I know you
know about this and then all of a sudden
that grows
and now value taming just crossed 5
million today and pbd podcast is at 1.45
whatever it's at right and we're getting
you know however many eyeballs on a
monthly basis what happened was it a
risk yes did we get people thinking yes
people stop me nowaday like man I got to
tell you man I never missed the podcast
how about the entrepr I watched that
stuff but I really want to know what you
think about current events and very
interesting what does this
mean this means I think people want to
know a little bit more about what Tom
Bilu thinks that's all I'm saying maybe
they want to know a little bit more
because that brain has a lot to offer
and and the life you've experienced can
give people perspective but more from a
position of there is a
scoreboard this philosophy won but this
philosophy is louder don't let the noise
convince you that this philosophy is not
working this is the right way to live I
think we have to sell that and I think
some people are afraid of doing that at
that level pbd what a joy this has been
you've got the new book coming out in
December absolutely get it I read every
word it's fantastic uh where else can
people follow you I mean you can order
that on Amazon but you can find me
YouTube Twitter all over the place
Patrick B David O T I love it well worth
the time boys and girls speaking of
things that are well worth your time if
you haven't already be sure to subscribe
and until next time my friends legendary
take care peace to learn more about
these complex topics check out this
episode with the one and only Jordan
Peterson man I am beside myself with
excitement to have you
on