Kind: captions
Language: en
let me ask the movie Leave the World
Behind which was produced by the Obamas
paints a pretty distressing picture of
how you could turn America against
itself in Three Easy Steps step three
being civil war how easy do you think it
is in reality to destabilize the us or
any other major country I love that you
start with this question and I love that
you didn't give me any hints that you
were going to start with this question
cuz I recently watched Leave the World
Behind and I thought it was just a
brilliant piece of The Human Experience
right first of all to answer your
question directly destabilizing the
United States would be very difficult
because at the end of the day the US is
a we are a strong unifying culture when
we are attacked it supersedes all other
things that's that we saw that with 911
we saw it in the Vietnam War we saw it
time and time again right when we are
act it unifies us that's not like that's
not the same cultural response every
country has so if we were to see a large
scale hack if TVs were to suddenly go
down radios were to suddenly go down if
the whole network and infrastructure
started to fall apart if Tesla started
self-driving themselves and blocking
roads the last thing we would do is
start killing each other if anything we
would all unify because at our core we
are a fighting culture it's one of our
biggest flaws and one of our biggest
strengths we are a Waring culture here
in the United States now that said the
the part of the of the movie that to me
was so preent was that instead of us
having one
enemy we faced a
Unity a Unity force of enemies that were
all collaborating and coordinating the
attack together so that's what the
movie's premise was right what if it
wasn't one bad guy what if it was an
amalgam of people who don't like you
essentially what if 10 bullies attacked
you instead of one bully I think that is
getting to the heart of What conflict
really looks like now and What conflict
will look like for the United States for
the Next Generation tell me more about
that I've heard you talk about this
you've said something that unfortunately
uh Rings a little too true to me which
is that World War II has already begun
uh if that's true it certainly doesn't
feel like it so um what do you mean by
that what does world what do you think
World War II will
or does look like so it's interesting
that you say that because when when I
hear people say it doesn't feel like
World War I has
started World War II when it started
also didn't feel like World War II had
started for America if you recall
America didn't get involved in World War
II until after all of Europe had
basically been ingested by the Nazi
party Only After Japan attacked Pearl
Harbor did World War II start being felt
by Americans World War II is very
similar what we're seeing right now is a
a wh scale attack on American resources
the US dollar uh American influence
American
dominance and any war is really about
bringing your bringing your opponent
down in terms of influence and power and
at the same time increasing your own
influence and power what World War II
where World War III looks different than
World War II is that World War III is
being fought through these proxy wars
Third Country battles often times poor
or impoverished battles that are being
bankrolled by large world leaders if you
look at Libya if you look at Syria if
you look at Afghanistan if you look at
Yemen all these fit the proxy war model
and those are just major conflicts there
are minor conflicts happening all over
Asia Latin America and South America or
Latin America and uh and Africa that
show even more active involvement by the
United States the Russians the Chinese
uh North and South Koreans uh Turks
Germans waging conflict through third
countries all over the planet and what
are they fighting for what makes it
worthwhile for the United States to
engage in a in a conflict against the
houthis and Yemen what makes it worth it
for Iran to invest in the same conflict
the reason it's a good investment is
because they are increasing their own
influence and power without risking
their own Nationals or without risking
their own military successes or failures
it's it's easier to fund a civil war
from outside than it is to uh engage in
what's known as interstate War which is
when your nation state invades another
nation state like we're seeing with
Russia and Ukraine okay Civil War uh
this is a it's the idea that really
stood out to me in the movie Leave the
World Behind uh it's something I've
thought a lot about my audience has
heard me talk at nauseum about Ray
Delio's growing um percentage prediction
of Civil War here in the US it's
interesting that you call us a Waring
culture that we're very good at uniting
because we are also proving that we're
very good at splitting almost exactly
right down the middle which I have a
whole thesis about which maybe we'll get
into um but while I agree with you that
I think the movie Leave the World Behind
is just exceptionally unrealistic in
terms of it's like oh first isolation
and just oh just take out all their
Communications no big deal uh that would
be brutally difficult and of course if
somebody could they would have
already but it it's one of those where
from a movie perspective the suspension
of disbelief to point out a human truth
I think is really precious I don't think
it is accidental that the Obamas are
behind this somebody that's been in the
War Room somebody that really
understands uh what the darker side of
human nature can look like when
um nudged in the right direction and the
it's it's very theatrical I do not want
anybody to think I'm saying hey that's a
documentary on how this will go very
much not but once you grant them that
then you can look at okay when a country
is divided when people turn on
themselves it's the ultimate um
destabilizing factor and when I look at
less so honestly with Russia and Ukraine
which may be my ignorance but I don't
think so very much so with Israel and
Ham or Israel and Palestine depending on
how you want to think about it that one
to me feels like they have an anchoring
ideology which makes it effectively
impossible for them to get along and by
leveraging that you get some really dire
consequences and so we're seeing that
play out in real life and that to me is
what they're playing with in the movie
Leave the World Behind is okay just
grant me that they are divided and now
what does it look like once people begin
turning on each other tapping into the
tribalism tapping into this sense of
wanting to protect you and yours and
that is an algorithm running in the
human animal and so when you for people
that haven't seen you before which would
be shocking at this point uh but with
your background as a CIA agent
um how do you tap into that like when I
think about the velocity of information
created by social media my original
intro for this episode that I wrote was
that the internet really changed
everything because it it allows human
psychology to play out in a different
way and the way that the internet allows
human psychology to play out is is it is
so easy to confuse people it is so easy
to confuse people and if I'm looking at
forget the movie if I'm looking at
what's really happening I'm not even
saying it's coordinated I'm just saying
that the velocity of information that
comes across your social feed where you
have the algorithm from an AI
perspective colliding with the AI that
runs the human any individual human
yours is going to be different than the
next person but there's enough
similarity that we can really get some
flywheels going but the velocity of
information makes it very easy to
confuse people because people are
extraordinarily bad at understanding a
position from a nuanced place and so if
you were going to analyze the situation
that we're in now where you've got
someone like rello who has a lot of
credibility in my opinion saying okay uh
likelihood of civil war is going up
youve got your own take that World War
III is potentially already happening
that this is a proxy battle we've got
things popping off in the Middle East
we've got things popping off in Russia
um how do we pour fuel on a fire that's
already burning by confusing people with
fast information so what's really
interesting is is you're exactly right
that people get confused easily and
you're exactly right that velocity of
information is a fact factor in that
confusion where I would Challenge and I
don't think you were saying this
outright but I I want to make sure that
nobody misunderstands that velocity of
information and confusion existed long
before the internet long before social
media you don't I I will potentially
take exception to that and I will say
that the velocity of information that
you could get before would come from a
narrow band of sources correct and now
the velocity of information not only is
a 100 times a thousand times faster it
is coming from a thousand times more
sources and so it does feel unique this
moment I don't disagree with you yeah I
agree with you in terms of volume I it's
velocity that I'm focusing on right
volume absolutely we have more
information now in more channels and
more Avenues than ever before but think
about you think about our parents our
parents used to wait every day for the
morning newspaper and for the 5:00 news
I remember my dad rushing home for the
5:00 news
why because those two touch points were
essentially the only time they had in an
entire day to find out what was going on
anywhere else so when that 60-page
newspaper landed on the doorstep on
Sunday morning that was that was
everything that was the Holy Grail for
news for the week so if you think about
it in terms of velocity as fast as you
could read through those 60 Pages you
got all your new information everything
challenged what you previously knew and
everything set the stage for what you
were going to assume until the next
Sunday paper or until the next Monday
local paper same thing with the 5:00 or
6:00 news you you waited for that moment
and whatever update came in that 30
minute or 1 hour cycle became your
foundation of Truth for the next 24
hours we live in a world now where the
volume and the velocity combine so now
what you learn this second literally
changes when your feed refreshes half a
second later right so the the volume so
different and the velocity and the
volume combined exacerbate the what what
I think you correctly call the confusion
of information this is another element
when you ask me how I see this as a CIA
officer one of the core things that
people don't understand is that in an in
in a uh covert influence
campaign I mean that's for a CIA officer
covert influence is a tactical rule book
it's a it's a recipe here's how you make
it you crack two eggs you take two cups
of sugar and you have and you melt some
butter that's how you make a Cake cover
influence campaign has three parts one
of those parts is simply creating
information that that contradicts other
information that exists not by creating
something new but by exacerbating
something that's already
believed so you just take two existing
narratives and you pour fuel on one of
those narratives just to make it burn
and then as conflict erupts between
these two narratives then you pour fuel
on the other narrative just to keep the
fire going and that's how you start a
covert influence campaign the goal of
covert influence is not to get people to
believe in something it's to get them to
get confused by everything so that you
can create General chaos because chaos
degrades the ability for unification
that's the real goal behind covert
influence how real is the threat of
covert influence it's not even a it's
not even a threat it's a guarantee it's
happening all the time it's happening
everywhere around us all the time so
organized organized disorganized
intentional unintentional statun
transnational government sponsored us
sponsored cover influence is happening
everywhere all the
time in 2016 I wasn't paying attention
to it I'll be honest I was just building
building building building
and uh I was very sort of caught off
guard in that moment of a sense of oh
wow like even whether or not Russia was
actually engaging in trying to influence
the election I had never considered that
somebody would try to influence the
election and so it made me go wait a
second like that's actually again
whether true or not it's a plausible it
it might even be smart to think about
how government agencies are using PR or
propaganda however you want to look at
it to influence what people think uh and
then on the back of all this I start
reading about history and the more I
read about history the more I get really
concerned about how things can and do go
off the rails in the most violent
horrifying ways possible and all of a
sudden it felt important to pay
attention not necessarily to be overly
paranoid and the last thing I want to do
is beat the drum of like hey everybody
need to panic no one should Panic right
but as you will have heard in my intro
to this episode if you want to win the
game of life you're going to need to pay
attention to the players and the pieces
and the the real essence of the game
that's being played what I would love is
for you to walk out using this moment
that we're in where we're building
towards an election
and there's at a minimum going to be um
just very straightforward simple desire
to influence the voting public to voting
for a given candidate let's even just
assume it's all above board it's no
one's trying to be um it's not a foreign
government it's just people are going to
try to sway your way of thinking how can
people anchor themselves to something so
that they can think through this problem
well you and I talked about this last
time we were together that to me is is
the whole shtick whether you want to a
good parent whether you want to be a
good uh partner in a relationship
whether you want to be a a great
entrepreneur you must be able to Think
Through novel problems well how so one
of the things I I always get excited
about and discouraged by is that your
questions are so good and there's so
many elements inside each question that
we could pick apart so like with what
you just said with with what you just
asked about how do we handle this well
prior to that you started talking about
kind of becoming aware of influence in
2016 um prior to that you mentioned uh
Palestine and Hamas
interchangeably right what I see is in
the question you actually start to
show how difficult it is to splice these
things apart Hamas and Palestine are two
totally different
things the government of Hamas and the
terrorist militant group of the alkim
Brigade within Hamas is completely
different than the Palestinian people
the Palestinian Authority the fat
government right those are all but all
of those are part of Palestine so just
to put in in the context of where I'm
steering us uh so trying to understand
how to think through a problem well
which we are all faced with you you have
two options put your head down you will
be used as a pawn pick your head up pay
attention you can hopefully navigate
this well what I hear you saying is you
have to accurately map out what is
really happening so in this case it's
and I wasn't trying to say that they're
indistinguishable what I was trying to
say is some people will talk about Hamas
other people will talk about Palestine
so however you want to think about that
right um but getting getting an
understanding of what what is actually
happening or an accurate assessment of
the players the pieces is how I
typically refer to it is that where
you're going like you just have to
really map the terrain yeah well that's
where I'm starting from that's where I'm
starting from for sure because even when
you talk about the 2016 elections and
how the whole world woke up to the fact
that influence was happening in
2016 but nobody seems to ask the
question of if we caught it in 2016 how
many previous elections were it happened
that we didn't catch it and why would we
ever think that any of our elections
were ever safe from cover influence just
because we didn't have social media just
because Facebook wasn't a giant in 2008
why do we think it we didn't also
experience something then too so the the
starting point to your to answer your
question question the starting point is
to understand that emotional decision
making is what the human brain wants to
do it wants to make emotional decisions
because emotional decisions require less
cognitive ability less like less
calories less time it's so much easier
to just fall back on what you were
conditioned as a kid to believe what you
have experienced as an adult what your
opinions are what your friends say it's
just the easiest fastest way to make a
decision the brain is inherently very
conservative of its energy we often joke
that the brain is lazy so the brain just
jumps to conclusions and when you give
it a way of jumping to a conclusion it
likes that it's like muscle memory I'm a
Christian therefore I'm pro-life so
anytime you bring up anything Christian
I'm going to say pro-life the brain
loves that because it saves all this
analysis and contextualizing and
synthesis and synthesis and information
vetting it it saves itself all that
trouble by just jumping to a conclusion
so you see information is presented to
you in what form in a way that triggers
an emotional
response even to your point about the
whole like Palestine and Hamas are
presented in a way where it's hard to
distinguish the difference between the
two I completely agree the reason they
are presented that way is to make it
easy for the human brain in the target
audience to LEAP to the conclusion that
Palestine is Hamas Hamas is Palestine
they are the same which makes everything
happening in Israel right now under the
rubric of terrorism it's if that's the
narrative you want to portray it's easy
to get there when you don't
differentiate when you don't use
subtlety and Nuance to explain your
information as soon as you start to dig
into the information as soon as you
start to map the battlefield you start
to see all the changes in the terrain
you start to see the tree line you start
to see the sand pits you start to see
the the areas that are high ground and
highest ground and how they're different
from the low ground and the lowest
ground right so it takes that level of
awareness to be able to really land on a
meaningful decision so the first thing
to understand is that we decide you me
the smartest people the dumbest
people it's it's irrelevant of your your
race age Creed or education level we all
Pink Matter brain matter decide first
and easily through emotions through an
emotional lens it's sometimes called
emotional
reasoning emotion and reasoning are two
different things but when you reason
through a lens of emotion it's a
cognitive distortion that we call
emotional
reasoning understanding that is kind of
the first step yeah no doubt uh so I
have a big bumper sticker that I try to
get people to take in for this very
reason so I agree uh you have to map the
train you have to understand what's
actually going on you have to distrust
yourself that's my bumper that's a great
bumper sticker because um you can't make
decisions without emotions so literally
if you selectively damage the area of
the brain that's in charge of emotions
people can give you all the reasons why
fish is better than beef and then they
still in the end they can't make a
decision because without the ability to
process emotion to push in One Direction
or another you you literally I don't
mean this like as an analogy you
literally can't make a decision without
emotion the bad news is that your
emotions are influenced by your friend
frame of reference so everything that
happened to you from the time you were a
little kid whatever until today like all
of it creates the context that will
trigger an emotion now the problem is
the emotion to your point makes a
decision feel obvious and so you
context plus the whatever happens
creates emotion emotion makes one
decision obvious over the other but that
doesn't mean it's the quote unquote
right decision um okay so you have the
trrain you have understand the way the
Pink Matter uh is working that you're
going to be making these decisions
emotionally what what else goes into
this remember I'm trying to get people
to your 2024 for sure is going to be
brutal uh because this is an election
year here in the US because there are
multiple Wars going on but just in
general if you can anchor yourself and
think well through problems that you
haven't seen before you're going to do
far better in life um so that is the
umbrella under which I asked the
question after you map the battlefield I
mean to use a military parallel after
you map the battlefield the next thing
you need to do is take in all Source
intelligence all Source intelligence
means you're accepting information from
all sources how do you make sure you're
not taking in biased sources since every
source is probably biased so because
every source is biased that's the
Assumption you have to have about every
source so the important thing is we're
all accustomed to taking in certain
trusted sources mom dad wife husband
sisters brothers co-workers whatever it
might be maybe your trusted source of CN
maybe your trusted source is Fox News
maybe your trusted source is BBC maybe
your trusted source is AP we all have
our trusted
sources but those trusted sources are
all biased in some way whether it's a
lean or a
full-blown Wing we don't know but
everything's biased in some way so the
only way to offset the bias is to take
in information from the opposite
bias now if you've ever been a Boy Scout
if you've ever done anything in like
Land Navigation you can always identify
where you are located by doing something
called a reverse aouth casting a reverse
asouth have you ever heard of this hell
is that so when you look on a compass
and you point the compass at where
you're trying to go you're creating an
aouth a
direction in Reverse if you're trying to
find out where you are you can find a
landmark a tall mountain uh a building a
Cathedral a city whatever else it might
be aim your compass at the Landmark and
now casting the reverse Direction you
know where you are in comparison to The
Landmark if you do that with two
landmarks those two landmarks have an
intersection point and now you know your
true
location so a reverse asmith in the
information space means you listen to
left leaning news but then you also
listen to right leaning news where they
say the same thing
you have a high confidence that it's
accurate where they say everything else
doesn't necessarily mean either side is
wrong it's just starting to show you
their bias but what you have confidence
in is where they
agree if you do that enough times you
start to have a foundation of truth I
know this to be true I have high
confidence that this is true because
left leaning and right leaning news
sources are saying this is happening but
then everything around it what we would
call the fog of War everything around it
is unknown it's wrapped in fog it hasn't
been discovered yet it hasn't been
reported yet it hasn't been stress
tested or vetted yet so it's a foggier
area it's an area of of missing
information Vice your small pond or your
small island of known information and as
it's it's difficult for most people to
actually put it into practice because it
slows the world down why does it slow
the world down because your two biggest
enemies are Velocity and volume velocity
and volume of information lead to
confusion so if you can decrease the
volume and slow down the speed to
identify the true facts guess what
you're fighting against the very same
confusion you're trying to overcome
right a big part of the reason that
Intel failures happen a big part of the
reason why Intel flaps and Intel
mistakes happen is because professional
Intelligence Officers try to slow things
down and reduce the volume volume in
terms of noise but also volume in terms
of mass
to find the true facts that we can make
something meaningful out of well
sometimes in all the volume and all the
speed nuggets of intelligence that are
super relevant find their way in but you
don't see them because they're hidden in
the noise that's how 911 happened in
many ways that's how October 7th
happened in Israel right nuggets were
hidden in the noise and unfortunately we
didn't learn about that until after we
had the time to do a post analysis and
look back on what happened mm
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I think it was sunzu that said um all of
war is deception so I also have to
imagine that within the noise there are
a lot of um nuggets that are placed
erroneously on purpose trying to point
you in a completely different direction
okay one thing is that the recipe for
you or is there more it's a great so I
would say the recipe is to to get a
sense of the battlefield take in all
sorts intelligence and then actually
synthesize size in addition to analyze
the information analyzing me yeah okay I
think you're about to do what I was
going to ask analyzing the information
means you take it in and you start to
cross reference it to see where it
aligns yep that's analyzing the
disagreeing things where they overlap
right and then are you seeing Trends
right that's all part of analysis
synthesis then means that you take open
gaps open question marks and you start
to actively take steps to fill in those
questions to fill in those missing spots
so if you think of it an analysis is
passive analysis is just taking what you
find taking what you get and then
creating a a document or a a grid that
has gaps in it and then you pass it to
somebody and say Here's my analysis we
know these three things we don't know
these three things synthesis is we know
these three things we don't know these
three things but here's how we will find
the answer to these other these other
missing spots when you and I start to
synthesize the information that we have
it starts to give us a active tool that
we can use to collect information we can
go to people that we trust people that
that we like talking to people that we
know are bigger thinkers or look beyond
the noise and we can start asking them
their opinions you get to do this every
day on your show you get to ask big
questions of of people that are Advanced
thinkers and you get to inform your own
opinion every step of the way you are
synthesizing every step of the way every
time you have one of these interviews
people who watch you are doing the same
thing they're synthesizing through you
they have gaps they want those gaps
filled they trust you to help them fill
those gaps but you're not the only
source they have other people that they
also learn from other people that they
also follow the problem with our world
the problem with the United States in
many ways in my opinion is a lack not of
analysis it's a lack of synthesis people
accept the gaps and they assume what's
happening in the Gap instead of actively
trying to solve the question of what's
happening in the
Gap that's really interesting and I
think super important and again
abstracting it for people it does not
matter what problem you were trying to
think through whether it's Israel Hamas
whether it is uh Ukraine Russia correct
being a better parent getting a
promotion starting a business whatever
uh it's all going to run the same thing
the the important part for me so I use
slightly different vernacular to
describe exactly the same thing so for
me it's frame of reference getting
people to understand that you have a
frame of reference you see the world in
a certain way you are a wash in biases
you're a wash in certain emotions that
you have to things so the way I explain
it to an entrepreneur is your job as a
CEO is the world is a bunch of dots to
your point it's data analysis you're
getting a bunch of data in but it
doesn't actually tell a story by itself
you have to connect those dots now much
like when we look up into the night sky
for Millennia people saw animals and
humans and all kinds of things in the
shapes of the Stars it's not really
there right those are just dots but we
cannot help but from our frame of
reference of being a human and the
things that we know overlay things onto
those patterns in the same way that
you'll see a dog in the clouds or the
shape of England which has happened to
me many times because my wife happens to
be from the UK so uh we will begin to
see patterns in the dots and as a
thinker again regardless of what you're
aiming at thinking at that's your job
your job is to connect the dots but you
have to be hyperaware that emotions will
make dots feel like they connect that
don't actually connect
and if you don't distrust yourself
you'll be like oh yeah that's a dog's
face oh yeah that's whatever Aries
pulling back a bow and arrow in the sky
and people just yeah 100% that's what it
is I I see the picture in the dots and
to think through a novel problem well
what you have to do is really step back
and go cool I see a picture in this I
really have a strong take on what this
is but I know better I cannot trust my
emotions they are probably making dots
feel like they connect that don't
connect I need to step back because you
have to have that certainty to move
forward right otherwise you just be
forever analysis paralysis so I need a
narrative that allows me to move forward
but I need to also occasionally check in
and be like I need to welcome disc
confirming evidence because and this is
a part we haven't talked about yet that
I think is insanely important and dear
anybody listening that wants to think
well through a problem you must have a
goal first yeah like for me the the way
I think about when I get invited to be
on a podcast is no one can make me say
something I don't believe is true and so
M go on any podcast like the only thing
they can hope to do is like really like
snip snip snip and like rearrange things
in an order um I am admittedly easy to
make sound crazy out of context but if
somebody watches the whole thing like
it's GNA it's going to be there so
understanding that okay um I can go
listen to things that I think are
outright lunacy that you know whether
it's far right far left whatever I it's
not going to poison my mind to hear it
to your point it's help me triangulate
when I understand where people disagree
what they're fighting over and then that
helps me refine the way that I'm
connecting the dots so that I can
hopefully get closer and closer to the
truth but the truth is my goal now why
the truth how did the truth become my
Northstar when I'm looking at something
like this because to me the truth has
utility which completely reveals who I
am and what I'm about I'm about
something being useful now then it begs
a question useful what way and I think
it is important to Define that and I
think people should have goals that are
honorable to me the best I can do and if
somebody has a better answer I'm super
here for it but the best I can do so far
is to say all humans ought value
judgment entirely all humans ought to
strive to maximize human flourishing and
minimize human suffering as much as
possible I I don't have a better one
than that that's clearly not perfect The
Human Experience does not seem to be
perfect but at least if you're doing
that like your real aim is hey as much
as I can I'm going to try to alleviate
human suffering I'm going to try to
elevate people we can get into
definitions of what that stuff is about
I think it's beyond the scope of what
we're saying now but what I'm trying to
get people to understand is you have to
have a goal there needs to be a thing
that you can state that you are steering
towards so that as you redraw your dots
you're constantly asking what is more
true in that when I look at this problem
with this particular connection of dots
it allows me to more accurately predict
the outcome of my actions once you can
predict the outcome of your actions if I
do this I will get this outcome that to
me tells me that you're closer to ground
truth that's why as we learn more about
physics we're able to do more things so
Newtonian physics first gave us the
ability to land on the moon but it
didn't give us the ability to do GPS for
that we needed einan physics so it's
understanding that o as we get closer to
truth and even Einstein said well we
still don't fully understand it and as
we do we'll be able to do more things
whether that's harnessing the power of
an entire sun or an entire galaxy
whatever like as we understand physics
better we will be able to do those
things so that's that is a very tangible
example of the modern world was born out
of us getting closer to ground truth now
when you were one step removed at
Newtonian physics you still could do
amazing things because you were getting
close enough to something true that you
were able to do certain things but there
will be a wall and so as your ability to
predict the outcome of your actions
breaks down you should immediately go ah
interesting the way I have drawn these
dots is not accurate enough for me to
get to that next stage and so what piece
of this is broken and this is where I
find people don't even realize they have
a frame of reference so they never think
to like recheck like hey what's wrong
with my way of thinking because things
are not I'm not making progress towards
my goal and therefore by definition I'm
doing something quote unquote wrong
which people are going to get hung up on
that word but I'm doing something wrong
and therefore I have to update my set of
beliefs in order to make additional
progress so I love that you again in in
the way that I love sitting with you you
bring up a million like I mean at least
five different ways of looking at this
question so what I'm going to focus in
on is is this idea of truth because what
you call
truth I associate with fact and fact and
Truth seem like they should be the same
thing but they're different things
because truth includes facts and beliefs
whereas facts excludes beliefs and that
I think was what you were getting at
with the end of your question when you
said that everybody looks through a lens
of what they believe so for example I
mean to go back to physics as an example
right cernus was the one who suggested
for the first time that maybe the Earth
revolves around the Sun everything
before that was that everything revolved
around the earth right that was the
facts that were known at the time even
the world's astronomers at the time were
able to map out the night sky and
sunrises and sunsets and Seasons back to
to the Earth and then the Roman Catholic
Church also aligned with the same belief
system everything revolves around the
earth so the truth and the predominant
set of facts at the time pointed to the
to the idea that everything revolved
around the earth cernus proposed
something different that wasn't actually
a provable fact until Newton right
whatever that was 100 years later 50
years later so here you have what you're
getting at facts are constantly being
Unearthed and proven to be true because
prior to it being a fact it's a
hypothesis it's an idea but belief
systems don't change as quickly as facts
and belief systems play into the idea of
what is a truth
right uh some people believe that we
should be making the world a better
place by removing human suffering the
Buddha believe that you it seems like
that's something that's very important
to you other people believe that you can
make the world a better place by
increasing the amount of success in the
world that suffering will always be
there so you can't really like don't try
to stop the suffering Instead try to
account for more success because the
more success in the world the more the
suffering will be raised right there
will be suffering always there will be
poor always that's a very Christian
principle right so you've you've got
these different belief sets that inform
the truth that people then move from for
me the utility is less about trying to
get people to align on a singular truth
and it's more about understanding each
individual each individual's perceived
truth and then using that position as
your temporary frame of reference in
order to have a productive conversation
or productive exchange with that
individual Why argue with a Muslim Why
argue with a Buddhist Why argue with a
Christian Why argue with a rabbi Why
argue at all if you can just adopt
temporarily and understand their frame
of reference and then get them to do the
productive thing that you're there to
get them to do that's the utility part
for me but do you think that's different
than the way I see it I don't know that
it's different but I wanted to call it
out specifically because if it's
different I want to learn from you where
you where you see it similar where you
see it differently but I also like one
of the places where people quickly learn
to agree or disagree with me is that I
take a
very binary approach to relationships I
see all relationships as being
transactional
it doesn't mean that you're transacting
money or transacting time or transacting
favors but there has to be something of
value that you're offering in exchange
for something that you value from the
other person when a relationship is not
transactional there's no reason to
invest in the relationship so for me I
find that the way I maximize the
transactional value of relationships is
not by trying to get other people to see
my point of view it's by me adopting and
adapting to their point of view first
and then if they're the kind of person
that I assess as being open to a
different point of view I'll present it
but there are plenty of people who are
not open to a different point of view
and if you want to have a productive
transactional exchange with that kind of
person you just roll with their frame of
reference yeah I think that's very wise
um that to me it's interesting so all of
these are linguistic traps that I think
eat up so much of the planet and so so
many times when I hear people arguing on
podcasts I'm like oh man I wish I could
be the Arbiter because there there is an
idea that I use a lot which is um I want
to know if I accurately understand this
person's base assumption and what I have
found in my life is when two intelligent
well-meaning people think that the other
person is crazy it is because they
either have different values or
different base assumptions values have
to do with what the world ought to be in
their opinion and base assumptions have
to with a Mis uh a disagreement over
what is true and I'm not a believer in
post truth world or Posta world but I
think anybody who thinks that the truth
is self-evident is a fool and the truth
is brutally difficult to get to and for
evidence of that we still don't
understand physics not all the way so
it's like we understand it well enough
to do some amazing things but we don't
understand it all the way and so if we
can all agree to Max Plank's quote that
science does not Advance one inside at a
time but rather one funeral at a time
it's because people can't to your point
adjust what they think is
true that's crazy and you said I think
beliefs don't update as quickly as facts
it's like yeah okay so people end up
getting trapped by their frame of
reference which has a whole host of
baggage but also people just get lost in
words they don't take the time to define
the words and even if they do oh my God
it is so hard to get somebody to like
really understand what we mean by this
one of the most important things my wife
and I ever did to make our relationship
last was Define a small set of key words
that were like this is what this word
means now and forever for us and so it
became easier to navigate a relationship
so I think people get lost in that
probably more effective than people
getting lost and defining every term
would be to say what's your goal I think
that's incredibly important and when
people can say what their goal is in a
single sentence with no parentheticals
and run-ons just like a really tight
concise 25 to 35W sentence it's like
this is what I'm trying to achieve okay
word so if I know that's what you're
trying to achieve and you're telling me
to do the thing which sounds absolutely
crazy now this is where I come in as a
writer and I say huh if I were writing
this person as a character because they
think they're the hero right no one
thinks they're the villain ever right so
they think they the hero what would they
need to believe is true in order for the
hero to want to do this thing in order
to accomplish that goal and then I'm
doing what you advise which is I'm now
stepping inside their frame of reference
and I'm saying oh my God okay cool and
so I'll just ask people is the following
base assumption how you view the world
and they either say yes and I'm like
okay wow I I in an agree with you but
now I understand you and now I can
actually steal men your argument I can
say this is what you believe and I can
say where we're colliding is this you
have this base assumption and I have
that base assumption or you have this
goal which is hey don't worry about
suffering everyone's going to suffer
suffering is fine and I'm all about
trying to alleviate human suffering and
so now at least we actually know where
we're
colliding and man if I could give that
gift to people again regardless of what
you're trying to accomplish and so one
thing I really want to put a fine point
on that you said because I think it's
really brilliant is not trying to
persuade people and inad trying to
understand them once you understand them
then it's like oh wow okay now I have a
rough approximation of at least a car of
that's the wrong word because that has
too much baggage I have at least a low
Fidelity sense of your world view and so
now you become a lot more predictable to
me which means I'm a lot closer to
ground truth of who you are and at least
I can my predictive engine doesn't break
anymore so there's two things I want to
I want to present in that accompany what
your what your statement is right there
right the first is that you present to
people the idea like here is what I
understand your base assumption to
be there's a concept in Espionage that
we call priming or analytical overlay to
go back to your conversation about
seeing dogs and the Stars very similar
things right analytical overlay is when
someone's
predominant understanding through life
experience and education
overlays how they view all new
information right so they have a a set
of Base assumptions you can in a low
Fidelity way identify what those base
assumptions are because they went to a
private school in London or because they
grew up in Boston or because they grew
up with a military family you can start
to create an assessment of what their
base assumptions might be and then you
can test those base assumptions to
verify and confirm that your assessment
is accurate or inaccurate
ultimately leading to a point where you
understand why they see a German
Shepherd in the Sky versus an English
terrier in the sky right because of
their analytical overlay combine that
with this idea of priming priming is
when you present an idea and by
presenting the idea they have no option
but
to have that idea essentially incept
into their brain it's like when I look
at you and I say Tom whatever you do
right now don't think of the color
orange
I've already thought of the color orange
of course right and you thought of color
and you thought of thoughts right so
you've been primed in multiple areas so
now when I follow up in that question I
say Tom real quick tell me what your
favorite juice
is you have to fight not to say orange
juice right even if it's not true even
if it's not true you've been primed so
what jumps to mind is what you were just
primed to believe what you were just
primed to say so when it comes to this
world of information this world of fast
moving High Velocity high volume
information you can be primed and then
mediately be confirmed because they'll
Prime you with information ask you a
follow-up question how do you feel about
this and now we're going to Jane on
camera 2 and Jane what do the what does
the audience think about this right well
the audience just got primed to think
exactly what you just told them to think
so when you put them on the spot and you
and you force them into a high velocity
situation you're going to have a high
likelihood of the primed thought being
what comes right back so when you ask
somebody I is your my understanding that
your base assumption is this you're
doing two things one you're priming them
of what you believe their base
assumption to be so even if you're 80%
accurate 10 20% inaccurate they've now
been primed with what you told them you
understand their base assumption to be
so they their natural inclination is
going to be to agree with things that
maybe aren't fully accurate but they
feel on the spot to answer and they've
been primed and it's it's within easy
grasp for them to just regurgitate it
and say it out loud that's part of
priming if if you then Prime them about
a base assumption that you've assumed
through an analysis of their own
background you also have this idea of
analytical overlay on top of that so you
you run the risk of getting a
confirmation that isn't fully
accurate if um how do you avoid that
like if you really want to know what's
true you're not trying to paint somebody
in a corner however people usually don't
know what's driving their own thinking
correct and so you have to help them by
saying here's what it sounds like you're
saying and that's I think you nailed you
nailed a fact right there and then a
truth which like I said facts and truths
for me aren't the same thing the fact is
people don't know what they're thinking
absolute fact even though you and I as
much time as we spend thinking think we
know what we're thinking we still don't
really know what we're thinking that's
why I'm sure that you spend time just
thinking and you jot down notes and you
review your notes and then you're like
that's not quite right you've done it on
this podcast already where you're like
that that caricature is not the right
word I have to pick that apart even more
here in real time even as I say it you
are able to think about thinking in real
time when most people can't so then you
have to understand that most people
don't know what they're thinking and
don't realize they don't know what
they're thinking so for sure they're
they don't know what they're saying
because they can't even think at the
speed that they can talk you have to
build that into your assessment of
people always going back to the idea
that if you are trying to win in life if
you are trying to win in business and in
entrepreneurialism if you're trying to
succeed it's not about trying to get
other people to learn that's your truth
your truth is I have to help them that's
your truth I have to help them think I
have to help them say what they're
thinking the fact is they don't know
what they're thinking how could you
possibly help somebody to say what
they're thinking if they don't even know
what they're thinking instead you're
helping them to say something so that
they can get off the X because this is
really comfortable to them to think
about
thinking that was a big Whirlpool of
malstrom ideas did it did it make sense
to you it does but I still have the
follow-up question which is um I don't
I'm not trying to plant an idea in their
mind I I will say this there are times
where I am trying to plant an idea in
their mind it's what I call trapping
somebody with their own value system
which is very effective and I should do
like a whole class on that because oh my
God however in this case I'm I'm trying
to refine my own toolkit and help
anybody listening developed their
toolkit around thinking through a novel
problem well and for that I need to be
able to actually really just understand
the situation I'm really imagine I'm not
trying to plant anything in anybody's
mind I'm really just trying to figure
out where are you at but people will
talk in circles they will be in run on
sentences I get into this all the time
where I will finally just have to say to
people hey like that is the world's
longest I asked you for a single
sentence on this you've been talking for
three minutes so um then I'll start
saying what I think I hear you saying is
this is that accurate and so we have a
thing here at impact Theory where I'll
say I want to get to the point where you
say the exact words you understand my
position perfectly and you'll usually
get to like yeah you've got the Essence
no no no so I'm missing something what
part am I missing so anyway how do you
without planting something in somebody's
mind or priming them how do you unearth
what they're
thinking I the utility of information
for me is to never disclose the full
extent of the information I understand
it's something we call in in Espionage
terms as we call it information
superiority even in your marriage so my
marriage is is a different animal
because in my marriage my wife and I we
try to operate a level of transparency
yeah mainly because we can both we we've
both been trained to see
non-transparency all right so give me
both angles so one where first give me
the I'm trying to conceal okay but then
I'll want to go through