Kind: captions
Language: en
you are living in a period of extreme
geopolitical turbulence Israel is at war
with Hamas Russia is at war with Ukraine
and today's guest believes that America
is about to be at war with itself in
this interview we cover chances of US
Civil War how you're being lied to the
major threats to democracy the odds of
World War III the different
ramifications between a trump or Biden
Victory Ai and more so join me in
welcoming political analyst Ian
Bremer
you've called this year the Voldemort of
years because there are three Wars three
Wars that we're going to be talking
about we've got Israel Hamas ongoing
we've got Russia Ukraine ongoing and
we've now got the United States versus
itself which you've said could kick off
at any moment so what I want to ask is
is it really that bad like in modern-day
America could we actually find ourselves
in Civil War uh no uh in in fact in fact
since since you're asking that question
I I literally just a few moments ago
responded to someone it was
um David Roth COV I did not have
full-fledged Civil War on my bingo card
for 2024 I think I need a new bingo card
and I wrote I would definitely stick
with your old bingo card so no uh I
understand that we have like 20 five
governors that are all lined up saying
got to defend the border and don't want
to listen to the Supreme Court uh this
is not about Civil War this is about a
democracy in crisis uh this is about two
sides that are very antagonistic towards
each other um the stakes are very high
especially for the leaders of both of
these political parties um and there is
no effort to engage in diplomacy
there's no effort to see things from the
perspective of the other side and in
fact they really don't even share basic
understanding of political facts and
when you look at that and you compare it
to Russia versus Ukraine or Israel
versus Hamas then you start to see that
there is a real line through of
comparison uh and that that is
unfortunate it's it's not that we're
going to start blowing ourselves up it's
more that we aren't capable of having a
free and fair election that the entire
country believes in anymore and and
that's kind of foundational to a a
well-functioning
democracy uh but uh but unfortunately
that's not where we are this year okay
definitely what I was hoping you were
going to say but now set the table for
us um when I read the report that you
put out you list the United States
against itself as the number one threat
that we face
um why walk me through the when you talk
about uh you've said social media is an
existential threat to
democracy um obviously we've got Trump
versus Biden as the likely race what are
the pieces that are on this maybe
chessboard is a better analogy um that
have you listing this as the number one
concern well first let's let me explain
what it means to be number one so what's
the methodology behind my madness right
um and uh you know what we're looking at
we're measuring
likelihood imminence and impact and and
so I mean if you look at this year's
report Africa's not in it why not I mean
all sorts of horrible things that are
really risky are happening in Africa but
the economic and diplomatic and security
impact on the rest of the world is
negligible and and I'm you know I'm
sorry to have to say that but it it is
what it is like I can't make it other
than what it is um and where in the
United States you know the the fact that
the US Democratic process is pretty
broken and that that is having a
significant impact on policies that the
US enacts with massive implications for
the rest of the world because the US is
by far the strongest economy in the
world it's by far the strongest military
in the world like that's why there's
such outsized impact from the United
States it's a big deal so for example
Trump has not yet got the nomination he
will right I mean I I think that's
pretty much 100% short of a really
unforeseen Health event I there's really
no mechanism for anyone to get for for
Nikki Haley to get a single State uh I
expect that she'll drop out before South
Carolina because she's not going to want
to lose her home state by 30 points I
think she's politically Savvy enough to
avoid that fate um but even before Trump
gets the
nomination just by putting his thumb on
the scale and saying I don't want a deal
uh On the Border in return for $61
billion dollar of Ukraine Aid because I
want to run on that issue against Biden
who's failing on the border right now
and Mitch McConnell who is no Trump fan
but is now loyal because Trump now owns
the Republican party again gets on board
and the Speaker of the House gets on
board and so what happens to Ukraine
you're not getting that 61 billion so is
that a risk of Ukraine or is that a risk
of the United States oh that's a risk of
the United States and you know I spend a
lot of my time talking to leaders of
different governments around the world
they are maximally concerned about this
Chinese leadership far more concerned
about the US election than the U than
the election in Taiwan for example where
so many people were saying oh it could
be War it could be confrontation no
they're worried about the US the
Europeans are worried about the US the
Mexicans and Canadians are worried about
the us so that that's why there are such
major knock-on implications from this
election all right when they say they're
worried what is the the Doomsday
scenario for people so there's assuming
that you're right there is Trump is
going to be running against Biden one of
the two is going to win
uh if you were to to play out the
scenarios uh one let me ask you if the
election were held today who would win
uh I'd say uh Trump would win today
fairly handily uh I would say for in
November right now my view is 640 Trump
but I have very low confidence in saying
that because there's so much that can
happen in the next nine months Fair okay
so uh let's run those scenarios what one
talk to me about the leadup because um
that's the thing I think is is a huge
litmus test if you were to ask me what
I've spent the most time thinking about
it's what does it look like in a world
with AI at the level that it's at in a
an election that is so contentious and
so high stakes globally what does that
look like uh but then also um I want to
specifically walk through the scenarios
of what does the world look like say in
the immediate six months after a trump
Victory what does the world look like in
an immediate six months after a Biden
Victory well so first of all um the
stakes are so much higher for these
individual leaders if Trump loses he's
going to jail uh and I mean we've got 91
indictments there will almost certainly
be convictions at least in the
Washington DC case before the election
though he'll be out on bail but so the
stakes for Trump are far higher than
they were before that means the
implications of him losing are is
something he needs to avoid at all costs
the efforts that he and many of his
supporters will take to avoid that and
maybe even to interfere with that um are
far greater than they would have been in
2020 or in
2016 um and uh certainly the impact if
Biden wins of trump then going to jail
and taking the government taking that
action against him after you will have
heard the entire Republican party saying
that these cases are fake and they're
politic ized and they're trumped up and
they're Witch Hunt and they will say
that because they will all be loyal to
and endorsing Trump has the potential to
have far more disruption from saying
that the election was rag so assuming
it's not a massive Landslide where you
can't get away with saying that Trump
would still say it but that you can't
doesn't make sense um then you know I do
think there's a much greater likelihood
that you will have Civil Disobedience
social instability violence um in a lot
of red States in a lot of red cities and
unwillingness to accept a Biden
Administration as legitimate president
in 2025 I think that's a very big uh and
real possibility now if if Trump wins um
there are several things that are really
different this time around from
2016 uh one thing that is different is
his
priorities uh he is his first priority
has to be to end all of the
investigations against him to politicize
the
doj and the FBI and the IRS that he
believes are already politicized against
him and and in impose um his own uh
loyalists uh on those uh in the
bureaucracies of those
organizations uh so that he can go after
his enemies that want to lock him up
he's going to want to lock them up um
and and indeed there are many senior
advisers to Biden that feel like they're
likely to be imprisoned if Trump is able
to pull that off so we're talking here
something that looks a lot more like
Peru or Hungary um than looks like
Canada or Japan or Germany right and and
we're we're normalizing all of this
because you know we're getting used to
it over a number of years we're like
okay well now we have presidents that
get impeached a couple times and the
impeachment is kind of broken it's only
political so okay that's the way it
works and you know we see what happened
with the speaker of the house who's
thrown out by a small number um of uh of
of uh caucusing uh members of his own
party and that means that you can't
promote legislation that they don't like
that's the way it works now that's not
the way it's worked historically and
it's not the way a functional democracy
works but in this environment if Trump
wins that is what we're looking at and
then there's also the international
environment which is very very different
2016 to 2020 there really weren't any
major Global crises going on while Trump
was President this time around Trump
will be president with a minimum of two
major Wars that are going on um and he's
promised he will end the war in Ukraine
on the first day he says it it's just a
talking point he says it all the time
what he means is that he will force the
ukrainians to accept the present
delineation of land and when they refuse
um they will be cut off they'll say you
get a ceasefire for that well they say
no this is an existential crisis for
NATO and for the EU because there are a
lot of Frontline countries that think
that that is an unacceptable outcome but
there are others like Hungary and
Slovakia as well as political movements
um inside Europe that are gaining in
popularity like the new National front
in France or like the alternatives for
deuts land and Germany that will be
aligned with Trump not with their
governments um and Trump will reach out
to them in directly engaged foreign
policy something that absolutely isn't
happening right now under the Biden
Administration and and we've had for the
last several years a very coordinated
NATO and transatlantic relationship this
suddenly becomes an immediate crisis for
the Europeans and for NATO so I mean
just to you know play out a little bit
of what that means that's that's some of
what we should be thinking about and
it's certainly a lot of what American
Allies are thinking about um as we head
into this election
season okay so I want to go back to the
civil unrest so if Biden is
elected um what do you like let's use
2020 as our Benchmark so we had a lot of
civil unrest uh in 2020 uh having lived
through it in LA where a lot of it was
popping off it it was serious um but
certainly seeing that sort of move
through the system obviously we were
nowhere near that spilling over into a
civil war that to me feels like Peak
sort of Tinder um pile given that we had
all been locked down and so there was
there was a just a a sort of screaming
sense of Injustice everywhere and then
you get to January 6th uh which I guess
technically was 2021 um and again now
we've been locked up even longer and and
there there's a real undercurrent of not
only is there a massive amount of social
injustice but there's also um the
government may actually be coming
tyrannical and so that felt like a a
powder cake moment that I don't feel
like we will have in 2024's election
barring an economic
turn um so if you had to to gauge off of
the instability that we had in that
period versus what you expect after this
election um if if Biden wins where where
do you Peg that level of reaction yeah I
think first of all I think the global
challenges are much greater than the
domestic ones so you you mentioned the
point you know barring an economic uh
unforeseen issue in the US the US
performance of the US economy is
actually quite strong right now now
people don't necessarily feel that way
because the the leading indicator that
determines how you feel about the
economy in the US is what your political
affiliation is which is senseless but is
true um and and and that gets to the
problem of democracy the you know
completely different information
environments but you certainly do not
have people locked down under the
pandemic you certainly do not have an
economy that is in crisis but other
economies around the world are going to
get hit very badly by this this is this
is a US democracy and crisis is a much
bigger problem for the economies in
Europe for example or in Asia for
example uh than they are for the United
States uh and that is you know
meaningful but the report the risk
report that we write is a global report
it's not just a report that looks at the
United States domestically so I do think
it is the geopolitical backdrop of this
instability um and the erosion of
political institutions in the United
States that poses a big issue I mean
remember Trump came in last time around
and he pulls the us out of the
trans-pacific partnership this says ends
those negotiations pulls the us out of
the uh the Paris climate talks pulls the
us out of the Iranian nuclear deal um
all of these things but they happen in
peacetime and so it doesn't really
matter that much that happens in Wartime
when people are feeling crisis and when
other countries are feeling major
economic stress after three years of
pandemic that's a very different story
so if anything this would make me more
structurally bullish on the dollar
um and on the US Stock Market because in
a world that is much more unstable
you're going to the cleanest dirty shirt
and and that's not crypto right I mean
it's not
nfts and it's certainly not China you
Ian Bremer I'm sorry it's certainly not
China uh which is facing very serious e
so so serious economic challenges that
they're they they really don't want
Trump and they they had no problem with
Trump in 2016 and this time around
they're saying we can't handle the chaos
we just want a stable election you know
so that that is really interesting I
don't think there'll be another January
6 because everything will be locked down
around that they that the the
preparations for that will be in place
um I think it's much more likely the
kind of instability we'll see will be
much more like what we had in Portland
Oregon um but again in red States uh
where you have large numbers
of disenfranchised magot types um who
are many of whom um are armed uh many of
whom uh will see a Biden Administration
as a second Biden Administration as an
absolute destruction of everything that
they see as holy um and and they will
likely be supported by a lot of local
police uh and maybe some local members
of the Armed Forces uh and that uh
that's a fairly serious impact in my
view that's the biggest thing that I
think is likely to come about um in a in
a in a relatively narrow uh Biden when
there will where there will be massive
information that people that oppose
Biden will believe that the election was
stolen and was stolen badly and they'll
be and that disinformation will also be
magnified by artificial intelligence
which we've already seen with those
Biden fake Biden Robo calls in New
Hampshire
just the tip of the iceberg there were
voters that were told with a Biden voice
uh and they were targeted directly with
their real phone numbers and their real
names you know you are um not to go out
we don't want you to go and vote uh in
the primary um because that's we want
you to vote in the general election not
in the primary that that's artificial
intelligence real cheap and there are
lots of Bad actors in the country and
outside of the country that would love
to foment chaos um through through those
mechanisms yeah there there's no doubt
about that that uh in my Layman stance
where I putting out my report of risks
um AI causing just a massive
disinformation campaign in the buildup
to the 2024 election continuing to
bifurcate people into different camps uh
where we don't share any facts that that
is the thing that freaks me out and I
think that that's going to get better
before it gets worse sorry that's GNA
get worse before it gets better
uh and yeah so the reason that we put
that in the US risk and not in the AI
risk is because uh it is the
vulnerability of the US and the the the
already the willingness to believe
conspiracy theories the the dysfunction
and fragmentation of the political
system that makes the US elections so
singularly vulnerable to those sorts of
attacks those attacks would not work in
Japan they would not work in Germany
like people would not go out onto the
streets with pitchforks in response to
that the United States increasingly
different that's interesting uh tell me
more about that why why are we more
likely to be easily divided than Japan
or Germany or anybody else yeah well I
mean it's it's kind of the Trump
question see I don't see Trump as the
principal risk I see him as a symptom so
why is the United States the country
that has elected Trump and now might
elect him a second time why isn't that
happening in other Advanced industrial
democracies why do the Americans talk
about stop the steel and none of that
happened even after brexit in the UK the
domestic political system basically runs
the same way what why is that happening
um and there are a lot of things that
people talk about they talk about
inequality they talk about identity
politics but those things exist
demographics changing those things exist
in a lot of other countries maybe not to
the same degree the is more unequal uh
economically today than the rest of the
oecd but not by a massive amount um I
think that the bigger issue is that the
United States is the country where its
social
institutions have most uh eroded so I
mean the US is a country that
historically has been by far the most
religious and
God-fearing and and yet in the last 40
years church membership has fallen off a
cliff in the United States uh belief in
the church trust in the church has gone
way down just like belief in in
Congress um the belief in the public
school system has gone way down in the
US just like belief um in the Judiciary
um and I think that the the fact that
those institutions have really eroded in
a country that is much more driven by
individualism and
entrepreneurship and unfettered
capitalism which has driven incredible
growth in the US and it's why the US is
leading the world in Ai and other
countries are behind I mean we we're
we're the country with Elon Musk and and
he wasn't even born in the US but he
knew that this was the place he could
make it and Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates we
have those people but we're also the one
where so many Americans feel unored they
feel like n nature got them they've got
they've got genetics but they don't have
have nurture anymore whether it's the
atomized family um or it's the lack of
national service um or it's just the
Civic institutions all falling apart and
now in the last 10 years nurture has
been replaced by something it's been
replaced by algorithms and we have you
know we're the country that has all the
influencers we're the countries where
everybody wants to be a personal brand
um but we're also the country that has
so many of our young people uh wanting
to engage in s self harm uh and even
suicide um because they're spending all
their time on social media where they're
they're being algorithmically
disintermediated from the rest of
society and only engaging with people
that they already agree with um or
things that make them angry um both of
which you know are great for the
corporate business model but are a
anathema to create Civic adults to
raising a nation that connects with each
other I think if I had to point to one
thing that has really eroded American
democracy it would be that I think that
that's where social media is everywhere
are are we just ahead of the curve or do
you think that there's something unique
about either the cultural fabric of
America or something else that has
governmental policies that have made us
more vulnerable than somebody else I I
think it's both okay I mean you see this
happening I mean Canada it's definitely
happening too you know you saw Ottawa
and the trucker riots and rebel news and
there's a lot of misinformation in
Canada too and democracy in Canada is
eroded somewhat nowhere near as much as
the US um
Japan uh almost not at all sense of
community in Japan is so much stronger
it's basically a single-party democracy
see um I there was a very interesting uh
um event in Japan that you may have seen
it was a couple of months ago there was
a Japan
Airlines um uh aircraft uh that uh hit
um a I think it was a Japanese Coast
Guard smaller plane that was routed
right in front of where this plane was
about to to land or take off and and and
the plane caught on fire and 330 plus
people passengers were on the plane
every single one of them got off within
like five minutes and not only did they
follow the instructions uh of the
stewards um and and stewardesses like
literally
immediately not one of them took a bag
off the plane because they were told not
to now yeah you that is inconceivable to
me on a United
flight I I mean I mean is it should I is
it unpopular for me to say that some of
this is cultural I mean am I going to
get canceled for that I travel to Japan
all the time I know that is different I
mean the Americans we we're just a
really individual oriented society and
so I do think that some of this is
different some of this is actually
unique to what make what makes Americans
tick um and and as a consequence when
the social contract starts eroding and
when the American political and economic
system starts doesn't work as well for a
lot of Americans they feel left behind
they feel forgotten it's going to hurt
American society a lot more right
because you just because that that
safety net and some of that safety net
is cognitive some of that safety net is
emotional um is just not there for
people in a way that I think it is in a
lot of other countries I think it is in
a more collectivist Germany for example
than it is in the United States
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[Music]
code yeah so if you're going to get
canceled for that let me join you in the
cancellation uh it is self-evident to me
that culture plays a huge part in um
everything just life full stop period in
general when we talk about nature versus
nurture that's effectively what we're
talking about the nurture being the
culture could be the culture of your
family the culture of your City Town
whatever or the thing nobody is talking
nearly enough about the culture of the
class that you were born into and thusly
raised in um if I were to and I
admittedly have not thought about this
before so I'll be very interested to get
your take on this but as I was listening
to you talk the thing that jumped to
mind as to why uh Japan which I I am I
am just a literal japanophile I I could
not love them anymore they are a hyper
conservative culture so I think that
speaks a lot of about that they're also
a more collectivist culture you see
yourself as integrated into the whole
more than somebody that's going to stand
out what I think is happening in America
right now and again this is I'm thinking
through this in real time is that we are
an individualistic culture that has
really done extraordinarily well with um
capitalism but the Genny coefficient is
real and as the gap between the poorest
Among Us and the richest Among Us grows
wider you are going to get people even
though by global
standards uh lower inome people in
America are still way better off than
lower income people elsewhere but it
doesn't feel like that if you're broke
and you are cleaning Jeff bezos's third
mega mansion and so that that reality is
what I think we're watching play out now
and you have some people that are crying
out for collectivism and you have other
people that are still staunchly
individualistic now you've talked about
something I've I've not heard anybody
else talk about which is that one of the
big concerns on the global stage for
what's happening in America the division
in America and why it's so problematic
is all of a sudden uh identity politics
is steering a lot of the policy and the
the sort of how you can expect America
to behave versus economics and
previously the rest of the world could
just go America's going to do whatever
is in their economic best interest easy
enough to predict cool I know the script
and I may hate it I may be violently
opposed but at least it's predictable
whereas now the instability inside of
our own country is causing our
politicians to really have to look
inward to be very cognizant of an
increasingly divided um constituency and
they now have to make policies that
maybe are not economically the best
policy but they soothe the most people
that vote for them absolutely I mean
industrial policy is has been become a
much greater driver and it doesn't
matter if it's helping or hurting the
American economy and even that's even
true when you talk about American
consumers and taxpayers I mean think
about how many folks have been behind
higher tariffs on Chinese goods and
Trump said they're paying for that
they're paying for that no they're not
American consumers are paying for that
but it is politically completely toxic
to talk about reducing t tariffs against
Chinese exports to the US and it doesn't
matter what the economic sensibility of
that happens to be and and we can play
that through in all I'm all in favor of
investing in American human capital and
infrastructure I think the chips Act was
great I'm glad we're rebuilding Bridges
again you know I mean Lord knows we need
to be you know have have a highspeed
rail system I I I I'd like it to be
private sector but if the public sector
can help make it happen faster God bless
those things are happening but at the
global level the Americans are now
politically throwing all sorts of
wrenches into
globalization and in part that's because
a lot of Americans feel like they didn't
benefit from globalization so why should
we support that you know you're going to
take my job and my livelihood and you're
going to send it to China screw you I'm
not going to support that and and it is
true that if the American economy grows
like topsy
uh but the middle class and the working
class is treated like Canon thod um then
they're not going to be very interested
in promoting your policy so
globalization is absolutely great for
the United States but globalism sucks
for the average American and and that is
where you see policy makers like Trump
and Bernie Sanders frankly in AOC it's
both sides of the spectrum making bank
in this environment because people out
there so many people say the system
doesn't work they're lying to me so I
want someone who's going to break
things I want someone who's going to
take the fight because otherwise it's
never going to get fixed and Trump is
someone who you know just by Dent of the
fact that he drives the establishment so
insane he drives the media so insane he
drives the political leaders so insane
that you know that he's really fighting
those guys so if you really feel like
things are broken in the US and all it
the only thing you see is a small small
pocket of people that keep benefiting
it's never hitting you you're willing to
have roll the dice on someone that's
going to be a Chaos Agent and and Trump
is that Trump is
that is the system broken and are they
lying to
us um I think that the American system
in many ways um is
unrepresentative of the average American
I mean just the fact that um the the US
is now of all of the o CD economies the
US country the US is the country where
you can best predict a person's
wealth as an adult on the basis of their
parents'
wealth more than any other oecd economy
and when you and I were kids that wasn't
true that is that's a sign of a broken
system um the I thought that the The
Varsity Blues case when we saw all of
these entitled adults doing everything
they could to make sure their kids were
getting into Ivy League schools and
thinking they were doing nothing wrong
because that's the way the system works
that is in my mind the sign of an
unrepresentative system um you know I I
we see examples of that all the time and
and I I do think the fact that the
average American doesn't trust their
political institutions anymore um is not
the fault of the working class that that
that's the fault of the people that have
been leaders and it's not just a
Communications failure it is an
execution failure they just haven't made
it work for enough Americans and people
are taking advantage of that and there's
a lot of
disinformation um and I I do believe
that I mean a number of policies we've
seen in the last few years are going to
move the needle over time I was a big
fan of the inflation reduction act and
by the way more red state jobs than blue
state jobs under the inflation reduction
act which was a bipartisan piece of
legislation but that will take 10 or 20
years before it actually starts to
change the way people think about their
opportunities it doesn't happen
overnight not when for 40 50 years
they've been on the wrong side of that
so you know I I do think that there are
big things you look at how much money
there is in the American political
system the billions of dollars that are
spent on Election cycles that go for
more than a year and they are spending
that money and a lot of that money is
dark money we can't even find out who's
behind it and where it's going and we
know that the purpose of that money is
to perpetuate special interests in their
ability to capture the regulatory
process and make politicians work for
them and not the average American I mean
when we see things even like the NRA and
and we know that the average American
wants a different policy but it can't
happen because there's too much money
that pays to ensure that it doesn't and
that happens by the way with teachers
unions and police unions too you know
and ensuring that the system is broken
and doesn't work properly for their kids
yeah that that is for me a sign of a
system that is deeply sclerotic that is
unrepresentative it's it's not
completely
unfunctional and and and partially
because we're so wealthy and we have so
much entrepreneurship and we're in such
a wonderful location geographically and
we have so many natural resources I mean
there's so many things that America has
going forth that you can tolerate a lot
of things that are really broken in your
political system and and the country can
still work but honestly is America's
political system in crisis yes I think
it is I think it is um and and I say
that as someone who has a lot of friends
in government Democrats and Republicans
who I think are trying to do the right
thing but the system is pretty broken
right now yeah yeah I think it is all
right so are they lying to
us who's
they people are going to say the elites
the the government uh mainstream media
we'll start there those two uh I think
that a lot of the we must
consume um the the presumptions of what
goes behind
capitalism let let me give you an
example you know how how much young
people care about climate you know how
much they care about the
environment they've been lied to we've
been lied to for decades by very very
powerful organizations that had a lot to
lose by admitting that climate change
was happening that it was transformative
in bad ways and that they were
responsible for it yeah are they lying
to us yeah and then by the way way when
they finally admitted it they still did
everything they could privately to
prevent us from taking action that would
have made this a lot cheaper to deal
with a lot less costly to deal with are
they lying to us yeah did the tobacco
companies lie to us um about the fact
that the products that they were selling
they were trying to addict us to um were
going to kill us yeah they lied they
lied to us were the food companies lying
to us when they did everything possible
to ensure the production of salty and
sweet and fatty because that's what we
would buy more of for our short-term
interests and sell them in bigger and
bigger quantities were they lying to
yeah they were lying to us they're not
taking care of us they're treating us um
as products they're treating us as
things that are useful to them and were
there members of government that happily
went along with that because they were
on the payroll of those lobbies yes of
course absolutely and I think that like
my mom raising me she was aware of that
she wasn't G to make a sophisticated
argument she wasn't going to develop a
documentary but at base level she
understood that the advertisements that
we were seeing and the campaign speeches
that we were digesting were not good for
her kids she I think she fundamentally
understood that she was angry about it
she accepted it that's the way the
system kind of worked that they were all
trying to screw each other but she also
recognized and you said it yourself how
how you were born in terms of class as
people didn't have the education didn't
have the network didn't have the money
that we were going to get screwed that's
not what America's supposed to be about
America's supposed to be the country
where everyone can make it it's what the
American dream is and fewer Americans
believe in the American dream today now
that's accurate it's harder
to actually have upward mobility in this
environment people a country that has
been very optimistic that historically
large majorities of Americans when
pulled would say I'm going to make it to
the top 10% and if I don't my kids will
I mean so many people saying that that
wasn't conceivably true but they
believed it and and that made you
happier and and it made you happier in
part because you did kind of trust a lot
of those people that were Elites and and
that has gone away in my view absolutely
it has do you think the same they lie to
us about things like um masks because
they really believe that we have to get
people to believe this to protect
them I really really was disappointed
with
foui um I mean it was pretty clear that
he
was marketing to Americans because he
thought he knew better and that we
couldn't handle the truth um and of
course when you do that in the near term
and you find out in the long term what
that does is it helps the conspiracy
theorists right I mean it's true that
there was a lot that Americans really
didn't know about this disease in the
early
stages but I mean you know saying hey an
n95 is the best thing to do but we don't
want you wearing those because we really
need those for the people that are in
you know sort of critical hospital care
and the rest like I think that's what he
should have said I I I don't think he
should lied to Americans um in the early
days because I think it did enormous
damage especially because of the
political divisions in this country I I
think the CDC has taken a massive hit of
trust and has become politicized in the
United States and we need to be able to
believe our doctors and our scientists
we need that so yeah I I I feel like um
you know you know fouchy I've been to
fouche's office I interviewed him a
couple of times for my own show and he's
a very charismatic guy and he's friendly
and he's smart he touches you when he
talks and but I mean his office was a
shrine I I can't remember the last time
I had seen an office that had so many
commendations and photos with him and
every political leader from every Walk
of Life that he had had like on every
wall floor to ceiling and you know I
look I that I've seen that you know that
that the fact that you want to show off
the fact that you have a lot of access
uh can can serve many purposes and um
you know if as long as you're focused
first and foremost on content first and
foremost on the science but I fear U
that at least the fouchi that I met um
was focusing more on the media the
attention the brand the power and less
on the outcomes and I think that did did
a lot of damage this is just my personal
impression I'm not a doctor I'm not a
scientist right I'm just being honest
with you and telling you what I think
because you ask me the question um I
mean we went through this pandemic and
that should have been an opportunity for
us to invest more in early stage warning
um and in
education um and in strengthening the
World Health Organization for example
and none of that happened it it all it
did was breed more mistrust now thank
God we have some extraordinary
scientists in the private sector uh like
in madna and like in fizer and others
that were able to develop vaccines like
with Incredible speed and are now using
those Technologies to do all sorts of
new things that are helping us with
cancer and Alzheimer's and you name it
but but the government um and and the
mistrust that average Americans average
citizens have in in what what the
doctors are telling us especially those
that are like on TV and that have some
level of you know where we the elite
doctors that you're supposed to listen
to I think that you'll listen to your
own
GC uh but you you won't uh I mean GP but
you you won't listen uh to those guys I
think it's a horrible
thing yeah one of the things that I I
talk to people about a lot is hey look
you lying is a powerful
tactic uh but be careful because if you
use it it will work sometimes and then
other times you will just become known
as a liar and when I look at the
division that we're going through right
now and what is it you know about this
moment and I can't speak to whether the
rest of the world is falling prey to the
same thing or not but um in in a world
where anybody can pick up their phone
and live stream to the rest of the world
your lies are going to be found out
terrifyingly fast and that is going to
absolutely erode your credibility
and on top of that um now you get into a
position where there's just the level of
disdain and distrust that people are
going to
have creates the the level of animosity
towards the government that we're seeing
now and that's where you get that powder
ceg where all of the sudden a country uh
which has a host of problems just all
coming together at one moment um really
starts to be super unnerving but
when I look out at at what I would want
people to take away because I I have a
I'm very much an individualistic thinker
in that I think at the level of the
individual so I'm not good at what
you're good at which is global uh
geopolitics like you see how all the
puzzle pieces add up what I understand
is is the person and so I will say look
everybody of course you know that people
are lying to you it it is a tool in
everyone's Arsenal and the vast majority
majority of humans are going to deploy
that tool even if only to uh make you
feel like your ass doesn't look big in
those jeans right it's just th it it is
going to be used so the thing that you
can do is not be as gullible I never
thought I would be interviewing people
on
geopolitics but once I started feeling
like uh Society is beginning to fray and
it's beginning to fray because people
are not building their own internal
model of what they believe the world is
they're letting the algorithms do that
for them uh they don't understand how
they're being manipulated and therefore
they become easy to manipulate and so
the thing that I'm hoping to do with the
show because all I've ever wanted to do
is Empower people to make decisions that
make their life better um and I suddenly
realized that people really need to
understand how the game works once you
understand how the game works hopefully
you can stop being mad about it and just
start doing something about it uh but
speaking of doing something about it
when you look at so we've got um two
Wars that are happening right now one
potential war in air quotes because you
made it very clear you don't actually
think that America's going to be in a
hot Civil War right um but how does this
all play out like I've heard you talk
about Ukraine is just going to have to
accept that that they are partitioned
but also it felt like you had some
anxiety about Trump coming in and just
being like you're gonna have to accept
that you're partitioned um what is what
is the oh man you you talk about uh the
risk assessment that you guys do is
based on fact not preference so knowing
that you're not about to lay out your
preference what do you think is is the
actual path forward and and this that
last Russia Ukraine and Israel Hamas
that last point just links so much with
what you were saying before like I have
no problem with being wrong at the end
of the year we go back and we see how we
did on all this stuff and we you know
see like how that affects when we do get
stuff wrong what do we why did we get it
wrong what how what lessons do we take
away from it but the authenticity is
absolutely critical
you know I mean for someone who's not a
part of a political party and and who
travels all over the world I I feel like
you know five 10 years ago I spent most
of my time talking with and engaging
with Elites because I thought well those
are the people with power and that's
going to have the biggest impact in
affecting change but in an environment
as you say Tom where so many people are
being you know driven by misinformation
becoming angry becoming polarized I feel
like I have to spend a lot more of my
time just talking to people right just
like being authentic about what's
happening in the world and you know it's
not easy to you know sort of ball that
up into Pro Trump or Pro Biden or
pro-american or Pro anything frankly but
we need more of that we we need people
that are prepared to like meet people
where they are listen to them and talk
about what we think is really happening
in the world and it's okay if you don't
agree with all all of it because it's
not about agreeing it's about
understanding that's all it is and so
there you're right I mean I I don't want
Ukraine to be partitioned I don't think
it's fair I mean I'm an American I
support the underdog like I like the 16
seed for March Madness that's who I root
for right the ukrainians this little
country that didn't have much of a
military and the Russians just invaded
them try to take out their leader so I
don't want them to have to lose their
country but it's going to happen I mean
at the very least
I I don't see the territory that
Russia's occupying now I I see no way
that they're going to be able to get it
back now no one's going to force them to
accept that
publicly but the reality is they're
having a harder time fighting uh when
they started the war um the average
Ukrainian recruit was 26 years old today
it's
mid-40s whoa I don't think they're going
to be able to keep fighting for another
couple years this way if the Russians
assuming the Russians keep piling and
piling and piling you know people at
them Russia's a much bigger economy they
have a much bigger
population um and the ukrainians are
going to get more desperate they already
see that they're not getting the
additional support from the US they're
running out of like ammo they're running
out of missiles they still have air
defense which is really important uh but
you know so at a minimum they're stuck
with 18% of their territory that the
Russians are occupying and and and
potentially it could get a lot worse
than that potentially the Russians
because the Russians have not said we
prepared to sit there they're still able
to attack Russian ships in the Black Sea
Russians can say we're moving to Odessa
we're taking that we're securing the
Black Sea for ourselves we're going to
take more potshots at the Ukrainian
leadership until zalinski is gone and
zalinski might well go if he's not able
to keep fighting uh you already see the
fraying of the Ukrainian political
system system opposition to zalinski
from the mayor of Kiev from the head of
the Armed Forces because things aren't
going so well so I mean the the risk is
that the risk is that this war that the
United States has taken the lead and has
Consolidated all of its allies to
provide support for Ukraine and Biden
said we will be there as long as it
takes and within months he he changes
that to well well we're going to do as
much as we
can that is a very different message for
zalinski it's also a very different
message for the Europeans the Frontline
Europeans who are going to have to deal
with Russian
disinformation um and infrastructure
attacks and cyber attacks and and have
all of these troops that are right there
on their border so this is a very
dangerous thing I don't think it's gonna
it's not World War III it doesn't lead
to Russia attacking
NATO but it could lead to Nato starting
to fragment becoming much weaker
especially if Trump becomes president
but even if he doesn't if if Biden is no
longer able to provide leadership that
the Europeans can r on to ensure that
Ukraine can defend itself they're going
to start falling apart on this stuff so
that's that's the Russia Ukraine side
middle east side it's kind of a
different story because here Israel you
know is is the more powerful country
like palestine's not a country um and
but Israel is the more powerful
uh player they're they're by far the
most powerful military player in the
region both offensively and defensively
not to mention their 100 nukes that
they've never formally admitted to but
they have uh and so the question here is
to what extent is this war going to
expand because a lot of people are
getting angry because there's an axis of
resistance that the houthis are leading
and they're continuing to take shots
including just a couple hours hours ago
against like a British vessel this time
around and so you can't actually have
shipping through the Red Sea and the
Americans are now hitting them in Yemen
and that's expanding as a separate kind
of auxiliary war and then you have the
Iranians providing Military Support um
to militants in Syria and Iraq who are
hitting American bases and so far there
haven't been any American servicemen or
women killed but if they do that's a red
line F and the Americans will hit back
very hard and maybe Iran and the
Israelis are are more likely to get
involved uh in a war with the Iranians
they just engaged in strikes that killed
five Iranian members of the Islamic
revolutionary guard Corp um in Syria and
the Iranians said that's unacceptable
we're going to hit you back so you know
Nan yahu knows if he leaves office he's
going to jail so he'll do a lot to keep
the war going and the Americans are
trying to get him out so I mean there's
lots of ways that this can get worse not
to mention the fact that we're
radicalizing millions and millions of
Muslims around the world on the basis of
all this violence that is happening so I
mean this is this is a tough one and and
by the way Ju Just so we don't only have
a negative conversation I mean the
report is about top risks so of course
the bias is to focus on the risks but
there are ways that both of these wars
could be resolved
more
sustainably on
Ukraine if the Americans and Europeans
take the assets that have been frozen of
Russia and seize them and use them to
rebuild Ukraine helping Ukraine get into
the European Union which all 27 members
approved and the Americans and Europeans
provide some hard security guarantees
for the remaining 82% of the territory
that Russia has um before let's say the
75th NATO anniversary happening in
Washington in July then nothing is going
to make Ukraine whole they won't get
their land back but the ukrainians in
that rump state will have a better
future than they would have ever had
before Russia invaded again it doesn't
make up for the war crimes and the
ukrainians dead and displac nothing will
ever do that but Ukraine will have a
future that will be a win ultimately UL
Ely longterm for Ukraine and with Israel
and Hamas I mean the Saudis still want
to normalize relations with Israel
Israel is in a very strong geopolitical
position if you can get rid of nanahu
who opposes a two-state solution and you
can degrade Hamas and Israel will have a
buffer zone with security inside Gaza
small but they'll Focus far more on
defense than Natan yahu ever did and
they promise
the Palestinians have the ability to get
a state even if they don't have an army
so the the security will be provided by
a multinational Force funded probably by
the Gulf States but they'll get a state
they'll be able to govern politically
West Bank and Gaza and in return the
Saudis normalize their relations with
Israel and Israel becomes stronger and
wealthier and there is more peace across
the region now I I don't un fortunately
Tom I don't think either of those are
the Baseline scenarios and the timing
the window for those things to happen is
narrow right because the more the
violence happens the more