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so as you look at this with your analyst
eyes um what do you think will be the
reaction to let say a trump getting
elected because my concern is uh when
watching the Sam Harris Thing Happened
on the internet I don't know how closely
you paid attention to that but basically
the entire internet turned on what I
think is one of the smartest most
thoughtful people I think he's wrong but
to your point about you want to
triangulate anyway you're not just going
to listen to one person Sam is right
about so many things um but he I I
believe I understand Sam maybe better
than a lot of people in that the thing
that Sam believes is that Donald Trump
is an existential threat and when
someone becomes an existential threat
meaning it could wipe out Humanity I
want to be very clear about what an
existential threat is uh that it's a
whole new set of rules baby and you do
whatever you have to do and
that if Sam who is incredibly smart and
extremely thoughtful and I think a
hyperoral person um but I also think
he's wrong about this so my thing is
okay I think the real problem we have is
we don't agree on what constitutes an
existential threat I actually don't know
that we disagree about what to do in the
face of a true existential threat but
like when I look at Trump getting
elected I'm like please Jesus no but at
the same time I don't see it as an
existential threat so and I look at like
we we had four years with them it what
the world didn't end everybody like but
at the same time other people look at it
and like bro we we dodged a nuclear
weapon like what are you talking like it
could be the end of humanity if he gets
elected again that freaks me out the
fact that people think hey him getting
elected could end the world now if this
were like Fringe
crazies I'd be like whatever yeah this
is coming from some of the smartest
people I know that are they're very good
at thinking through problems so of
course Part of Me Goes is he an
existential threat like I don't think
I'm the Arbiter right so I'm captain
distrust yourself but as so the only
thing I'm saying is when I analyze the
situation there are enough people that
believe that he is an actual existential
threat that if he gets elected I think
you have a problem I don't think uh look
I'm a big believer that America's
freakishly resilient I don't think it
collapses but do I think that at a
minimum we take another step towards the
Civil War yes I really do that that one
really freaks me out like I I can buy
into the proxy wars that World War III
is going to be fought very
surreptitiously there won't be as much
hot to the war okay don't love it still
very high stakes still makes me very
tense but that's a lot better than say a
World War II um but dude in the summer
of 2020 I sat on my balcony and watched
La
burn and that wasn't even around
existential threats right so yeah I
don't know and I don't know what's worse
and again I'll ask you with your your
CIA analyst hat on what's worse Trump
getting elected or Trump not getting
elected so I'll start by saying that I
disagree with all the smart people that
you're referencing right now and I would
gladly who think he's an existential
threat yes I would gladly sit in front
of anybody who believes that Trump is an
existential threat and have a healthy
debate on any topic they want to talk
about because I have actually seen
existential threats and Trump is not
that can you paint an existential threat
picture an existential threat
threat is is imminent it means that it
is the last step before the holistic
destruction the existence destroying
from
existence the the Target that it is
threatening right
so let's consider a battleship right a
Hypersonic cruise missile will destroy a
battleship right it is not an
existential threat to the battleship
even though it will destroy the
battleship it is not an existential
threat to the battleship because if even
one soldier
survives the memory of that battleship
in current memory still exists not to
mention all of the documentation about
the battleship existing and then they
rebuild a new one they give it the same
moniker and it's right back in service
again right it is a perilous threat it
is not an existential threat truly
existential threats are things that will
wipe you off the face of the Earth right
Iran wants to wipe Israel off the face
of the earth that is an existential
threat and when they say that when they
announced that they were talking about
Israel the state and Jews they want to
destroy them Nazi Germany posed an
existential threat to the Jewish faith
literally a systematic commitment to
destroying an entire generation like the
entire existence of it forever taking it
off the world
the world stage forever that is an
existential threat what happens is that
we have become spoiled in our
terminology catastrophizing has become
so common that now to get people
emotional to get people to move on their
on their beliefs you have to ramp
everything up to get past the volume and
the velocity of data you have to say the
next most extreme thing when you say the
most extreme thing long enough if you
call yourself stupid enough times guess
what you start to
believe you start to believe you're
stupid so when you tell people enough
times it's an existential threat it's an
existential threat it's an existential
threat you start to actually believe wow
maybe it really is an existential threat
without stopping to
think in one presidency no president
Trump or anybody no president can
disband two of the three branches the
only thing the president can really do
is write an executive order about the
Executive Branch if our Congress exists
We Exist if our judicial branch exists
we exist right and the other two
branches are there to keep the executive
branch in power so one four-year
presidency one 8-year presidency two
8-year presidencies with President Trump
is not with a future president Trump is
not going to be the end of America could
it do significant damage absolutely but
it's not an existential threat it just
isn't it doesn't threaten to end the
United States it threatens to make life
difficult but lots of things threaten to
make life difficult we can't guarantee
that Trump comes into office and somehow
everything changes for the better who
knows we don't we don't actually know
there's there's a term that we use in in
uh intelligence operations called The
Cone of uncertainty and if you imagine
like a funnel or a cone or you know a
pennant whatever it's a it's a certain
shape the timeline of known reality goes
right up to the beginning of the cone
and then where you see the actual cone
that becomes an area of predictable
confidence that you can guess Within
but where that cone ends everything past
the cone is totally unpredictable you
have no confidence about what will
happen one way or the other so unless
there is an existential threat the
threatening the existence and future
existence of something within that cone
then you can't really take it as a as a
level of confidence one way or the other
so my recommendation to those people
catastrophizing and everybody who's
feeling that pressure that anxiety have
a plan for When Donald Trump is
announced as the winner of the
presidency have a plan for it hope and
vote against it all you want but don't
let it happen without a plan for what to
do next we have a plan for what to do
next our plan takes us out of the United
States if Donald Trump becomes the
president and our country takes a turn
for the worst we're leaving the United
States we already have the plan if if
Joseph Biden wins the presidency and the
United States takes a turn for the worse
we're leaving the United States that's
our plan doesn't mean that we're not
proud to be Americans it just means that
where we are in our lives with our
children with our business with what
we're trying to do in our personal
mission it is not to fix the United
States right now we'll let other people
who are passionate about that fix the
United States right now we're going to
go grow our family and take care of our
family grow our business grow our impact
pay our taxes and make sure the United
States has the resources it needs to get
through its
adolescence but other people are very
dedicated to being part of the solution
right now and I applaud those people and
I want to give them the resources they
need to be that level of impact it's
interesting when you said earlier that
um you were you really believed in the
supremacy of the US I knew that you plan
to leave I thought it was a longer
timeline than that um that's very
interesting so that tells me that you
think that uh well let me not put words
in your mouth are you saying that if one
of those two gets elected that there is
a distressingly high probability of a
bad turn yes I would agree with that
statement completely okay wa regardless
of which two we're picking between two
bad
options and that's just where we are
right now unfortunately I think there
are good options on the table who one of
the options that I would actually
personally love to see take the
presidency is Nikki Haley I don't even
know who that is I hear her and that's
why she's not going to win so I hear her
name all the time I I'm going to have to
watch something I don't know what she
looks like never heard her voice I think
of all the things that the country could
really benefit from right now it's a
female level-headed Centrist and even
though she runs on the Republican ticket
she is very much a her her narrative is
a very Centrist narrative and I really
like the idea of our country kind of
coming out of this 8-year
Disaster by showing that one of the
things that makes us so powerful is our
diversity and I think we are at a time
now where a strong female leader would
be welcomed here unfortunately I think
that that Hillary Clinton in many of the
years that she was running wasn't the
right fit at the right time I think
Nikki Haley might be different than that
but that doesn't mean she's got any
traction that doesn't mean it's going to
happen but it is one of those 10%
outcomes where all of a sudden I see
like sunlight instead of more rain and
and snow did she run last cycle no it's
the first time she's run and
unfortunately she's showing a lot of the
a lot of the uh um
neopit making classic mistakes yeah
arguing over petty stuff and debates and
blah blah blah blah blah and not really
showing that she's above all that and to
be president you got to be above all
that frivolity either you've got to do
the Obama approach and just not address
it or you've got to do the Trump
approach and address it jovially and
make light of it Joi I love that yeah I
got the best words I've got the best
words I'm the best no one's ever had
words this good I cannot do an
impression to save my life but uh yeah
the way he talks is hilarious yeah yeah
uh okay what do you think of vivec
ramaswami I wanted to like Vic a lot but
you don't I wanted to like him a lot I
still think that he's got he's he's made
so many positive Impressions on me but
at the same time he just he's not been
consistent in terms of the positive
Impressions right picking fights with
Nikki Haley over silly things like Tik
Tock and personal attacks on her family
come on man You' got to act presidential
I loved when he came out of the gates
he's prepared he's a minority he's young
so many things there that that you could
that anybody could rally behind in love
but then there's these behavioral
challenges where you're like dude the
last thing I want to do is have you be
negotiating with the prince of Saudi
Arabia and you're gonna jab him on one
of his wives like no that's not a good
idea for us no thank you right again
neoy beginner kind of error that he's
going to try to fix up but that's just
that's where we are right now I and
again going back to the original
question there's a there is a very solid
chance that a trump or a Biden
presidency is going to change its course
even 15 or 30 degrees change its course
focus on American needs focus on
American economy maybe even apologize
for bad calls in the past who knows good
luck with that one but they can they can
change the course
and make significant benefits but if
they stay their
course then it's just more pain for all
of us and we can't we we can't stand by
idly and let that happen this this the
pyramid the civilization pyramid is not
worth just sitting by and being silent
we have a chance to impact our state we
should yeah no doubt I think a lot of
people are going to try to have impact
during this election cycle if you like
that clip check out the full powerful
episode here and I'll see you
there