Kind: captions
Language: en
my intuition is that a recession is
inevitable but the market can remain
crazy longer than you can remain solvent
whatever the quote is um why hasn't it
happened yet and how do you think about
because obviously you have the you have
similar concerns that I have only the
paranoids survive but how do we turn
paranoia into an action
plan yeah so everything is right now
about mapping out different possibili so
for example if we're right now in a
conference room and we got bored to
write on we would write on you and I
would write down and we would say okay
uh World War II takes place what do you
think are the chances of this taking
place Ray doio says 50% yes okay does a
um Jamie Diamond says this the most
danger Dangerous times we've had in
America in decades Okay cool so if World
War III happens what happens to the
economy who's going to be the parties
involved are we going to be involved
purely through proxy or is there going
to be attack here then you write down
the possibilities okay if this happens
what are you going to do if this happens
what are you going to do then next what
happens if unemployment all of a sudden
goes to 7% 6% what happens if inflation
goes down what happens if Powell starts
lowering rates back down to 54% holy
[ __ ] that's that's going to be crazy
what H so you got to write all of these
different scenarios down but here's a
couple things that we have to be
thinking about and you said which was
fascinating one so credit card debt
highest it's ever been you know what's
the craziest thing about uh uh credit
credit card that being being the highest
it's ever been tell the average interest
rate on credit card is the highest it's
ever been Jesus forget about the debt so
people are worried about the debt so
imagine the interest rates in the last 5
years has gone like this to 23% or the
average is 23% on credit card you know
what 23% means that means the debt
doubles about 2 and a half years that's
like loan shark number that's lone shark
three years your debt is doubling right
but that's what we got right now credit
cards okay so our debt is
record-breaking the forgiveness for your
uh loan school loan is gone so now you
have to start paying for that's $ 33400
a month that people are expecting I
think October November
starting then let's set that part aside
go to the corporations you were talking
about that are borrowing money this year
their interest payment on corporation
that borrowed money is going to end up
being around $530 billion just interest
oh my God next year it's going to 7:30
next year it's going to 1.1 trillion in
the next 5 years it's going between 1.3
to $ 1.5 trillion just on the corporate
debt that we're talking about by the way
next part car payment a credit no one's
affected good credit they're making a
credit payments on
time mortgages we're not saying anything
crazy with people with bad credit not
making payments we're still good car
payments and subprime they're seeing a
spike in defaults where people are not
making car payments the first sign
you're seeing on what's taking place no
problem let's go to the next one that's
the scariest one us has $33 trillion of
debt worst it's ever been the highest
that's ever been no problem what does
that really mean nobody can really
figure it out here's what it means of
the money that we have about 8 trillion
of it the rates are going to
re-calibrate and we're going to have to
have new rates that we going every
single time the rates go up one point
just one point for the US government our
interest payments Tom increases by $320
billion Jesus so imagine we raise rates
by three points just interest it's a
trillion dollars more per year if it's
6% $2 trillion more per year that's that
then last thing that I'll just kind of
get you to be thinking
about
um so anytime you want to know
if the economy is back to normal go to
Vegas if Vegas is
humming okay we're good and always
whenever you go to Vegas talk to C
drivers and talk to the drivers who are
doing Uber always ask how's conventions
doing how are you seeing with traffic
are you noticing things cancelling no
this has been crazy for us the last
three months everything's good but if
they start seeing a
downturn they're typically an indicator
of what's to come Transportation
industry we consult for a lot of
Transportation companies at B Consulting
one of my friends I'm about to go meet
with them right after
this their their con their construction
company does very well we have these
three clients that we have who are doing
Transportation two of them are doing 100
million 80 million a year numbers are
down 40
50% one of them is doing a billion a
year their revenue is down 70%
oh so let's actually talk about
transport why would Transportation be
down
70% aren't Walmart Amazon companies
ordering stuff to ship it from here to
there why would that be lowering what do
they know that we don't know again these
are people who have data to Insider
stuff that we can sit there and say
these are great indicators when you're
studying these things on what's going on
does this mean recession is going to
come here like I told you earlier when
we were talking my bigger fear is a
reverse market crash which Venezuela
just went
through which all of a sudden the rates
get lowered and DOW an S&P goes and DOW
goes from 33 40 45 50 55 60 just goes
Voom is that just the dollar losing its
purchasing power exactly that's what
happens the more we're printing like for
example a Michael Jordan um
card uh years ago a bgs 9 a half sold
for $78,000 I like oh my God that's
crazy but then all of a sudden all of
these boxes kept entering the
marketplace of 1986 Fleer so guys
started buying these things and they
were sending more to get graded at
Becket and PSA the more they got cards
graded that $78,000 card bgs 9 a half
became a $60,000 card $50,000 card
$40,000 card $30,000 card you can
probably buy bgs 9 and a half today for
$20,000 $25,000 okay so the
inventory increases the more we print
money the more you print dollars and
it's more accessible the less it's value
the less it's worth so these are some
things that's going on uh today uh so
you know like I you sit there and you're
like okay so does this mean guys are not
going to make a lot of money no no
you're going to see the first
trillionaire in the next 24 months cuz
none of this is going to affect the guys
at the top none of it this printing
money every time they print money the
guys at the top make more money every if
there's anybody that should be against
printing money it's low and middle-
income families if there's anybody that
should be against printing money is them
if there's anybody that's for printing
money guess who it is the guy's at the
top why because the poor in Middle
America can't keep money they spend it
and when they spend it what do they buy
a product owned by somebody in the S&P
500 or other people who have businesses
money flows up they can pre keep
printing money all they want so when low
and middle income families are like look
at these guys all they care about is
themselves let that bill pass for $2.7
trillion you simply look at them and you
say you have no clue how money works you
have no idea how money Works guess what
let's print1
trillion Rich are okay with it you ain't
going to get the rich complaining about
printing $10 trillion or $5 trillion
black Rock's going to be like all right
cool we're at $8 to10 trillion of money
in our ETFs and we're buying up a bunch
of different companies we're buying up
all these properties today right now
it's going to be nothing but in the next
few years you have to go through us and
we dictate the market and we're going to
own it all and what are you going to do
about it you know this these are these
are a lot of different moving parts that
is going on to me and again for me um
the the idea of Middle America not being
able to make the money they need to make
to be able to for a house send their
kids to school live in a nice place
enjoy some of their dreams maybe not the
biggest ones but some of their dreams
are going to become a reality Middle
America is getting smaller and smaller
and smaller every single time we print
money for people that don't understand
the mechanisms of printing money it goes
like this you are you have to have a
mechanism by which you put this new
money that you created out of thin air
by Fiat literally just saying it now
exists s uh you have to put it into the
system the way it's put into the system
is by buying assets because typically
low and middle inome people don't buy
assets they buy products like you were
saying then they aren't beneficiary of
that unless there are stim stimulation
checks now those they will get sent
directly to them so there are ways to
put it in their pocket but what you're
effectively doing is socializing losses
so you are spreading the loss out across
everybody because while I get it that
um because I own assets I'm going to be
disproportionately either protected or
actually gain the gain isn't real and so
it's really I'm looking at the price is
going up and it makes me feel like oh I
really did something but in the end I
didn't in the end it just my dollar buys
less and so it takes more dollars to buy
the same thing because nothing
fundamentally happened the business that
I own a piece of did not become more
productive and therefore can actually
generate more by adding more value to
the world so once you understand that
like I actually as a wealthy person do
complain when people print money CU I'm
like hey there is a point at which you
break everything because the money is
just going to hyperinflate and it isn't
only going to be the stock market that
goes up it's going to be the cost of
bread and gas and taking your family to
a movie and all of that and so um look I
I'm conflicted in fact Patrick Bet David
you're gonna educate me here I'm
conflicted about money printing because
the only reason I got into doing
Financial content and quite frankly
learning about financial content or
Finance in general uh was because of
covid when covid happened this was me
not being very far out from having
worked at Quest and I had a thousand
employees in the inner cities and I was
like they're all going to get
obliterated I'll be fine I'll still be
rich on the other side of this but
they're going to get wiped out because I
didn't know money printing didn't know
that they were going to socialize losses
and in doing that that actually kept us
from going into something that probably
should have been worse than the Great
Depression and they money printed their
way out of it and we ended up being okay
because it was spread across a lot of
people now I hate that I was taxed
without um without it being acknowledged
as a tax and I feel that I've paid an
inordinate amount of money but if that's
what stops everybody from going into a
horrendous depression I don't know I
don't know that it was a bad idea but I
know that it because I am such a student
of Rayo I know that governments once
they start money printing they can't
stop and every time in human history
that it's been used as a tool it's used
Until It Breaks Until It Breaks every
time without exception and that
typically as it's racing towards
breaking I think it's what8 out of the
last 14 times it's ended up in a hot War
so usually as the debt the big debt
cycle go watch R Delio's video as the
big debt cycle comes to an end and and
uh money's inflating away to nothing
debt is completely out of control nobody
can make their payments everybody's
defaulting you have to have a complete
reset of the wealth which is I think why
everybody calls this the great reset or
the big reset or whatever because we are
we are actually
stopping we are forestalling catastrophe
right now by printing but we are only
forestalling it and nobody I've had a
lot of people on the show nobody can
tell me how you pull out of this death
spiral other than austerity and no one's
going to do [ __ ]
austerity
yeah well I mean Ray when he uh uh did
that one video if you've never seen that
one video it's like 32 minutes where he
explains the history of money and finan
and what's going on if you by the way
it's got like 20 or 30 million views few
32in Finance videos are going to have
that many everybody must watch it
but yeah so how can you fix this thing
well the the question my question would
be is it a how do you fix this thing in
a year no one's going to know how to fix
it because it's not going to happen how
do you address this and make progress
towards you know getting better that
over a 20e span okay now we're talking
40e span even better then you have to
forecast and see what Solutions are
going to be needed the next 20 30 40
years the problem with America today is
the following here's one of the problems
with America which by the way is a
beautiful thing but it's also perinal
whoever that gets elected we have
cyclical Cycles okay you got Carter gets
elected then it's Reagan senior then you
have Clinton then you have Bush then you
have Obama then you have Trump then you
have Biden so Republican Democrat
Republican Democrat Republican Democrat
so every time you do this every eight
years the system is like changing so
Cycles are changing whatever you're
doing is changing so you can't really
consistently build on a philosophy over
a 20-year period because in America you
you can't put a 20-year plan in place
there is no such thing as a 20-year plan
on America because whoever is the next
guy that's going to come take your job
is going to say no we're not building
that wall no we're not going to do that
no we're going to cut those benefits no
we're going to add these benefits no we
are going to spend more money no we are
going to do that no we are going to
leave this war no we are going to get
into this war the these things the the
complexity of what we're asking
about is challenging because no one
leader is going to run for 20 years we
just don't have that okay would you want
it in a in a way when it comes down to
the
economy uh yes I would want it selfishly
for me and you because we're alive today
is it good for America long term
absolutely not okay okay absolutely not
because if that one person is a shitty
person that gets into office for 20
years this thing's gone it's destroyed
okay so at least this allows us to not
be able to go super extreme because you
have to get it through Congress and
Senate and it's already complicated
enough to do that but to fix this thing
you're never going to have both sides
agree philosophically economically on
what they're going to be doing over a
20e span all right let's go to the next
side that we're talking about while all
this stuff is going on you have uh um
the the War right now with China and
India that is also taking place with
iPhones are now being made in India you
can now get iPhones where on the back of
it it says Made in India first time not
made in China it says Made in India
really guess who blocked Tik Tock in
their country India guess who's blocked
a 100 apps of China India India is not
afraid of China now why does China not
like India why do they always be closed
doors talk [ __ ] yet at the same time
they're part of bricks you got Brazil
you got Russia you got India you know
you got China and I think it's South
Africa that's part of the bricks right
okay so they're part of the same thing
but there's also a way of you know
competing the reason why I like India a
lot and I think India is going to play a
very important role here is because
India is seen how China negotiated with
us and they've realized we're not doing
that but India's also seen the mistakes
China made with the one child Rule and
overexpansion and what's going on with a
lot of these properties that they build
out in cities that looks like just like
Paris I don't know if you've seen the
city they build in China it's a city
everything Paris has it has it looks
identical to Paris if you Google this
same kind of architecture if I tell you
if I show you the picture you would
think it's
Paris they spend billions of their own
money to build a city replicating EX
exactly Paris that's what China did okay
wow so we're talking about you know the
whole everything everything they have
they have a shaniz same exact model that
they have over there exactly when you
see the pictures like when we're done I
can't wait for you to see these pictures
to see what that looks like so China
overexpanded very quickly India's
watching China they had their one child
one child
policy the average age of a Chinese per
right now is 38.4 years old India is
2728 okay India's uh I it Institute is
producing incredible Engineers many
companies here will hire Indian
engineers and they're rockstars better
than MIT in many cases so I think India
is very important for the next 20 30 40
years very important as long as India is
there China's going to hate it they
they're not going to like it the fact
that Tim Cook right now's got a very
hard job I think Tim Cook in a span of
four weeks lost $350 billion of
valuation for apple in four weeks $350
billion okay one because iPhone 15
didn't do what they expected it to do
two because China is now giving them a
hard time because China is their number
one market of iPhones they sell now
China is sitting there saying wait a
minute we sell more iPhones in this
country than anywhere else yet you're
giving our business to India who the
hell do you think you are right then on
the back end the real W that's taking
place is the semiconductor chips and
there's different levels to the
semiconductor chips that's being buildt
and China's specialized in the cheapest
kind to make the easiest kind to make
where some countries have specialized on
a tough kinds to make when it comes on
to semiconductor chips this is why China
can't stand Taiwan being there this is
why China wants Taiwan because Taiwan
specializes in building the extremely
technical semiconductor chips that the
rest of the world uses and then there's
complete other aspects to this that you
can get even deeper on so taiwan's going
to play a very important role you know
we can't have a Russia Ukraine or a you
know Israel Palestine Gaza Armenia aeran
turkey we can't have that taking place
with Taiwan Taiwan needs to stay
separate that needs to stay protected
how we do that I don't know how we're
going to do that we're getting involved
in one too many wars but if if Taiwan
stays free and China relies on them
because China destroyed the world during
covid absolutely destroyed we realize
80% of medication is being built there
80% of the technology that we need is
being built there they controlled
everything car pricing use prices went
up 50% like what are you talking about
you mean to tell me I bought this car
for $90,000 it's used you're to pay me
$130,000 yes are you serious yes why we
don't have chips to make cars are you
kidding me no Rolexes they were making
Rolexes for 18 months they didn't have
equipment to make Rolexes you go to a
Rolex shop that had one one watch like
what do you have we only have one watch
can I order Rolex no we're 12 months
you're not going to get are you serious
yes nothing this is what was going on at
Rolex store
so again the stuff that gets me
optimistic is
India is is Taiwan is we're committed to
the semiconductor business here uh the
things that concern me is China is
erdogan being wanting to be involved in
the Israeli War because most people
don't realize the most powerful military
in the Middle East is not Israel Israel
is powerful but Israel has 300,000
soldiers of which I think 150 is
reserved turkey has nearly 400 active
350,000 active Soldiers the number
number one military in the Middle East
if Turkey gets involved you know so we
have all these dead things that we're
looking at obviously the military
industrial complex which Eisen are
talked about where be careful with these
companies like Ron and Boeing and
General Dynamics and these guys that are
making a lot of money when there's Wars
we have to be careful with that taking
place we have to be very careful with
that when that's taking place but uh
yeah it's very complicated very complex
Ray doio says a depression could be
possibly around the corner a lot of
these guys are fearing what is taking
place today Michael bur shorted the S&P
500 $1.6 billion of his client's money
and now he did it in a way where you
know you're kind of protected but still
he's not optimistic about the S&P 500
what it's going to be doing uh one too
many moving parts for us to sit there
what will happen the rich are still
going to get rich the innovators are
still going to find a way to you know
win the people who learn how to use AI
on their side they're going to advance
and Excel even more the acceleration and
the disparity between the rich and the
poor is going to get wider and wider and
wider why because most people are going
to spend majority of their lives on
Instagram on YouTube on Tik Tok they're
not going to learn a new skill set
they're not studying AI right now
they're not studying technology right
now they're not learning new skill sets
right now Harvard did an article Harvard
Business Review did an article saying to
stay competitive right now every 18
months you have 10 new skill sets to
learn as an executive it wasn't like
that it used to to be 10 new skill set
every 5 years now we have to learn 10
new skill sets every 18 months how the
hell do we keep up so so that this is
the part where you know we talked about
the only the paranoid survival like
right now you have to be looking at this
shit's out there what part of it do I
control what part of it do I have not no
control over if not a billionaire or a
hecta or a decamillionaire man I got to
figure out a way to increase my market
value or else I'm going to get crushed
you're going to over the next 10 20
years if you're going to spend spend
more time on Netflix more time watching
all these shows more time playing all
these games more time watching all these
Tik Tok Instagram if you're going to
spend more time on that than building
value for yourself and learning new
skill sets yes the Market's not going to
favor you the next 18 to 36 months but
if you do that fortunately for that
Community they're going to be okay this
doesn't mean a Rec is still not coming
though okay so let's start pulling apart
some of the issues so the geop political
part of this comes down to is there
something that we can do to position
ourselves um you were talking earlier
about we create a matrix and it's like
okay do we go to war how bad is it like
all the different scenarios and we run
through them um so but let's sort of put
the pieces on the table we have um
global conflict and that's going to do
what it's going to do we need to think
about what the plan of attack is there
how we position ourselves well we have
the debt crisis which is just probably
the thing that weighs the heaviest on my
mind it seems the most inevitable and
because it's so in plain sight and not
at all sexy but nobody's freaking out
that one makes me the most nervous
because you can just run the math and it
seems inevitable that it things have to
break for that to work um you've got the
what we'll call the Cold War of
manufacturing and where that's going
Apple China India all competing but But
ultimately how do people begin to
actually put together a battle plan so
one of the you you had a really good
video about advice for young men and one
of the things that you said was you need
to be aware of what's going on and I
really woke up to that at the beginning
of co co was a
grand uh moment where it's like look
behind the curtain there's The Wizard of
Oz and I began to see how things were
actually um happening that was very
revelatory and just as if you want to be
an entrepreneur the ironic advice that
I'm going to give you is you need to
learn about the body because if you can
get control of your body if you can
change your physique you're going to
find discipline consistency you're going
to see that it really adds up to an
actual transformation and you can apply
all of that to um business once or yeah
to business to anything really once you
begin to understand how the world
actually works now you can begin to
position yourself to weather any storm
but you really do have to understand how
the pieces move around the chessboard
how you're being manipulated um and I
don't it certainly has not then provided
me a sense of Clairvoyance and oh I know
exactly what to do but I feel like it
makes me ask a better caliber of
question to me the caliber of question
right now is what is the position
someone should be working themselves
into so I'll paint the picture that I
think and then tell me if you disagree
if there's a better thing
okay number one I think because only the
paranoid survive there's actually two
things you need to be paranoid about
right now paranoia number one is you can
pull out of the market too soon and Miss
real opportunities and since no one is
going to be able to accurately forecast
the timing you have to be thoughtful
about that so one strategy might be just
that you dollar cost average in every
day make sure that you have a certain
amount of savings so that you're not
going to find yourself in a panic
situation and as Morgan housel said uh
the the whole purpose of having cash in
a bull market is to make sure that you
don't have a force sale in a bare market
now I thought that was a a really wise
way so um what I'm going to present to
people is there's so many variables on
the table and I don't know how they're
going to go I just want you to be in a
position where you have optionality so
we're going to optimize for options to
do that you're going to want to be
largely in um cash and index funds which
is not going to sound sexy and when I
say cash I'm talking money market
treasury bills something like that bring
Five Points right now yep which is
[ __ ] amazing y all day every day I'll
take it uh now would not be the time in
my opinion to invest in anything where
you're not just an absolute complete
expert where you have so much
disproportionate knowledge that you're
able to really recognize a deal when you
see it so I've heard you talk a lot
about some commercial real estate stuff
that you're looking at because you know
things are going to go on sale you oddly
enough I still find this so fascinating
you really understand the baseball card
market so you'll know a deal when you
see a deal so it's like that to me
optionality cash um only investing
either sort of blindly in index stocks
not just completely removing yourself
because you could miss you know it could
be six months a year before two years
before this is who who knows we really
can't predict it but that we are in a
time of such volatility that if you are
not taking every step with sort of
Maximum
paranoia uh you're making a mistake so
that's I'm sure if somebody were here
they'd have a lot of questions for that
but that's my rough guidance to myself I
think that was fantastic I think it was
fantastic and we're very aligned look I
mean here here's also the thing right
like where you're you're sitting
there're watching some of these guys
sitting on a lot of cash why are they
sitting on a lot of cash are they
sitting on a lot of cash in in case [ __ ]
it's the fan is that what they're doing
or they just kind of sitting on a lot of
cash wondering I don't really know
what's going when I say people I mean
Burkshire Hathaway I mean these these
guys have a lot of cash right now
they're sitting on the table and uh you
know maybe they're not buying value
stocks yet because they don't yet
believe value stocks are here bshar
hathway okay if you're not in this
business if if you're not in the
business of Investments financial
adviser broker day trader don't play
around do not play around and get crazy
about it um crypto a lot of people got
into crypto and nftd and that was not
their world they didn't know about it
they lost a lot of money I mean couple
guys made $90 million but the people
that bought their stuff lost $89 million
but they got their money there's a lot
of guys that made their money in nfts
but it was a gamble for everybody and
everybody's like oh my God but I believe
it in all this other stuff okay great
that's pretty crazy you know what about
this and what about that now does that
mean nfts are going away absolutely not
my kids still buy stuff on robloxs and
skins and all that there's an element of
it that is not going to go away
guaranteed is there 95% of nfts that are
not coming back yes probably some of
them are going to be gone again my
opinion I I have interest
in things I know
about and I'm interested in like right
now you know I'm looking at stuff the
card Market got destroyed the last six
months destroyed guys are sitting on big
cards they were thinking they're going
to make a lot of money on it they're not
right now okay cars that would have sold
for $ million two years ago are selling
for $400,000 today wow but they're going
to end up selling for that value they're
not going away because it's art it's
non- duplicatable assets you can't
duplicate these pieces especially if
it's things that are very few of okay so
if one of one they're not going to go
away art Jamie Diamond's got a $900
million art collection why Dave Dana
White is telling me about a picture he
has in his uh office he showed me this
yesterday that he paid $200,000 for it
that picture is probably worth wor $8
to10 million today art money in art
being made again non duplicatable assets
are very very valuable whatever there's
few of very valuable but only touch it
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plus two free gifts if you know nothing
about crypto don't even get close to it
don't get too crazy oh my God I'm
hearing you know Bitcoin is going to go
to 100,000 it may go to 500,000 but
don't do it because you're guessing cuz
somebody else said it do it because
you've done a lot of due diligence in it
so if you don't want to have that kind
of a risk tolerance indexing is the way
to go to play it safe now to to the
small community of
crazies that have an itch and a
tolerance for madness
Okay this isn't everybody this is some
when you have a certain amount of money
I'm talking to my Goldman guy he comes
in we're having our conversation he says
hey here's what I think we can do with
this amount of money I said okay what
about
it he says here's a strategy we can use
the next 90 days I said okay I said do
you have any questions for me he says I
got one question for you are you okay if
in the next six months we lose $55
million in
this what a great question just straight
up I'm
like no I'm not okay with this that's a
big nut he says uh no problem totally
get it then we can't go the way that
this is one of the options we can go on
because what do you think of a chance of
a World War III happen next 6 to 12
months I don't know man I don't know if
I'm at 50% but I'm at 10% well 10 is
pretty high yeah I agree okay if that
happens how bad is it going to be you
know like during Co that went to 18,000
I don't know if you remember for that
minute that that went to 18,000
everybody's like holy [ __ ] what's going
on but very quickly went back to 32,000
so it recovered very quickly okay so
what does this mean if you think a
possibility of craziness is going to
happen that you keep cashing it happens
you can buy and dollar cost average okay
yes you think you're that brilliant that
you can time it historically very few
people have been able to do it and those
who did got purely lucky do you want to
be part of that camp because most people
historically what happened to them they
missed being in the market on the five
best days corre and missing those five
best days ended up costing them the
difference between making 133% over a
20-year period to making 7.8% correct
and that's a lot of money by the way
between those two so if that's not the
world you want to play don't do it don't
at all do it for me the game we're
playing is a different game the game
is there's going to be a lot of assets
for sale the next couple years okay and
if you've made the right choices and you
have cash and some of these assets don't
perform the next couple years there's
the opportunity to pick up assets
there's the opportunity to pick up small
businesses I'm talking to a guy who runs
a
you know uh a a business that they're
doing 34 million a year and he I said
how many companies are there in the
marketplace that you could buy right now
that are between to $10 million there's
at least eight how many of them can't
stand you one of them we never talk I
said okay the other seven how many of
them love you three of them do the or
four know you they know of me but we
don't have a relationship get it close
to them as soon as possible make the
following phone call he said what do I
tell these guys this what the call
sounds like hey John listen man we're
both in the same industry how business
and you'll know by their answer how it's
doing you're going to say oh great
unlike XYZ we did 32% last month over
last year approv okay great guess what
that's not who you want to talk to next
call you got six more left okay hey
Larry how are things oh um yeah I mean
look I mean some areas we're doing good
some areas uh why what what's going on
did somebody tell you something okay
boom check what's the conversation Larry
here's what what's going on the reason
why I'm calling you we're getting calls
from guys in our space and some of them
are not want are not doing as well as
they thought they were going to do and
they're about to run out of cash and
they're calling us because we have
access to certain relationships and
contracts and technology that they want
to take advantage of I thought just to
give you a call because we're within the
same space are you in a place right now
where you want to entertain possibility
of a partnership where we can help you
with our company or no if no list I'm
not going to impose but if you are maybe
we can have that
conversation 5c
pause uh you know about nine months ago
I would have told you to go to hell but
uh yeah maybe we can talk
perfect um when do you want to come to
the office or would you like us to come
to your office would it be okay if we
first met at a coffee shop away from
everybody no problem let's do that then
he go sit down what's going on look man
I don't know if I want to do because I
heard this and I heard I heard that and
I heard this I don't want to be ripped
off and I don't want to be this and I
don't want to be that bro let's just see
what we can do with the numbers if we
can great if we can we'll support you go
do your thing then the conversation
start so there's different levels right
now the marketplace if you have cash a
lot of it companies are going to be
forell the next 3 6 12 months and
there's going to be a lot of
opportunities for you to increase your
market share within the industry if not
you're somebody that doesn't have a very
high risk tolerance do not screw around
the next 6 12 months thinking you're no
strad and you can predict the future cuz
the Market's going to destroy you it's
undefeated the real power is because
it's not enough just to be strong it's
not enough to be violent you really do
have to be able to calculate it I saw
the interview at Jared Kushner on Lex
fredman and Kushner said um that Trump
always liked to leave people with a 10%
chance that he might nuke them which is
horrible I say it with a smirk because I
get the Showmanship of it but there is
something to the unpredictability the no
the belief that that person is dangerous
and that it is merely strategy that
keeps them in check there is something
to that and at at that level to pretend
that that isn't real is to set yourself
up for disaster in fact I'd like to
introduce my favorite Thomas Soul quote
which my audience will have heard me say
a gazillion times the last 50
years have been marked by exchanging
what worked for what sounds good and
that feels like a lot of the policies a
lot of the ways that we talk about young
men toxic masculinity all of that is it
sounds nice it would be nice if we lived
in a world where everybody could just be
kind and gentle but we don't and so you
wear thin the armor of civilization when
you teach men to be
weak you know how in families there's
typically the one person everybody fears
and respect when they die there's chaos
and all of a sudden you know one person
is taking advantage of this person or
that person my my uh mother her her
family had some money the moment her
parents died uh one of her uh uh family
members took over all the money and he
abused everybody else he says you're not
going to get it I have it now but when
Mom and Dad were alive he couldn't do
that the moment they died he bullied
every body from the money that he got
that money was supposed to go to a few
people he took it all and he gave crumbs
to people and he became that dictator
you're lucky I'm giving you this kind of
money no no that was their money but
because the parents didn't put anything
on paper he stole it from everybody and
he could do that what's the moral of the
story when when that
Alpha when that leader is not present
bullies show up you know so so for us
again like this is a very chaotic time I
don't know when this is going to be
released you know whether it's one war
or the other war or this or that um
we're we're one or two people away of
being offended of World War III getting
started you know you got 16 million to
18 million people died World War I you
know 60 million on two third one if we
go at this trajectory could be 200
million Jes the the job that we have
collectively is to try to do whatever we
can to turn down the temperature not
increase it you know if if you and your
wife get into an argument and you call
me and you say you won't believe what
she said my job isn't to say she said
that Tom oh dude if she would have said
that to me it's done are you kidding me
doesn't she realize how amazing you are
how lucky she is to have you instead is
to say Tom come on bro she loves you and
you know you love her she's partly right
bro I'm G to take her side how could you
say something like that you're not on my
side you're on her side probably on this
one am but I'm telling you privately I'd
go back and try to make this work screw
you Pat totally get it bro let me know
if you want to talk later you get off
the phone I have a job and it's called
Doug theuse unify and be the glue we
don't have a lot of Dougs around the
world today we have division today we
have divisiveness today so but if
there's that one strong personality
leader of the Free World a Churchill a
Reagan a person you don't want to mess
with the world is typically a safe place
yeah that is um it it is maybe a
balanced place where the level of danger
that is always ready to pop off is
currently held at Bay um but I think the
the reason that that Cycle Works where
strong men make good times good times
make weak men so on and so forth works
is because when things are good the seed
of its own instability is present
because of that Loop and I don't know
that there's any way to escape it it's
one of the things that makes this so
predictable I agree
now Church Hill is a fascinating
character in fact this will be fun
because I never get anybody that can
talk about Church Hill I absolutely am
just blown away by Churchill and you can
say what you want and did he have his
flaws of course he did but this is a guy
that felt he had let his country down in
a uh
military this is World War I uh he makes
a mistake leading the Navy and he says
okay I know exactly how to come back
from this I'm going to even though he
could have just gone back to England he
says no put me on the front line and so
he goes to the front line and he said
other people didn't want to walk with
him on the night patrols because he
would just talk out loud and they're
like bro we're going to get shot like
what are you doing and he he uh said to
his mother I have such a need to earn a
reputation for physical courage that
I'll basically do anything and so he
stays in the front line multiple times
narrow narrowly escapes getting killed
sees countless people die around him and
said to himself okay now after I forget
how long but it was a long time again
all voluntary uh he's like now I've
earned my way back to Parliament and he
goes back to England and re-engages in
government life and I just thought whoa
like I'm not even saying I could do it
but I saying I admire it and I'm saying
that men ought to have that kind of
courage and that to me we've had 70
years where we really on our own soil
where we have not had to face um
violence and danger I'm not taking
anything away from the men and women
that have served um overseas obviously
but there's something that still let our
country's psyche be lulled into the
sense that we don't need men standing on
the wall protecting us and that worries
me military meaning we don't need a
military yeah basically I mean so uh I
was quoting the uh line from A Few Good
Men where he's like men like me and the
thing is I hope what we were supposed to
take away from that is that he's a
complicated character and yes some of
the things he did were despicable but
he's also right and that's what keeps
them from being a caricature is you you
are asking people to risk being shot
you're asking them to kill other people
I mean it it is horrific horrific and
there
is there is an evolutionary seed inside
certainly inside the male brain that
makes that very possible you know if if
there's anything like any man that wants
to earn forget about you know should I
go become rich should I go have a
six-pack should I be in shape should I
do this if you pursue anything if you
earn moral Authority you you're going to
have a lot of self-respect
you'll have self-respect in a way you
lead your wife and your kids you'll have
self-respect in the companies you lead
and you'll have self-respect in a
community does this mean you're going to
be a billionaire not necessarily doesn't
mean you're going to be a millionaire
not necessarily but if you earn the
right and you have that moral Authority
there's something to earning that that
takes years that doesn't happen
overnight when you're telling the story
with Churchill there's something to it
there's something to you know a guy
setting the pace from the front there's
something to earning the right you know
there's something to this is why for me
with the voting system that we have I
think our voting system is totally
screwed up in America couple areas of it
I'm not a fan of it because for me I I
would much rather have a 16-year-old kid
who has a job working at mcdonals who
made 20 grand last year and paid $3,000
in taxes I want him to vote over the
25-year-old bum living with his mom and
dad not going to school not getting a
degree not doing anything for him to
vote I don't want this guy to vote I
want to hear from this 16-year- old kid
let this guy vote our system is too much
of yeah here you go yeah here you go now
earn the right to vote why don't you
earn the right to vote well just by
being an American don't I earn the right
to vote I totally get it but you got to
have some you like pull your little red
wagon how are you going to contribute to
society well that you're discriminating
against dude I'm from Iran I was born in
Iran half Armenian half a Syrian I'm a
1.8 GPA kid I'm a welfare kid I'm not a
kid that came up here was going to be
something but I wanted to come back and
earn the right to say hey I want to earn
this respect that America gave to me I
want to go do my part I think we have to
go more towards that in our house our
kids you know everybody's talking right
now about having a phone I don't know
how many articles I've read that the
more you delay your kids getting a phone
the more happier they going to be by the
way parents if you're watching this do
yourself a favor and go watch the movie
disconnect disconnect I I don't have a
phone to see who's the actor but one of
the guys is the I don't know if you've
seen this movie or not disconnect is
baitman what's his name is it Jason
baitman is that his first name certainly
is so the guy is that from Horrible
Bosses yes okay so that guy this movie
disconnect is a story about a boy who 12
13 14 year old kid goes to school
there's a girl he likes these two
bullies knows he likes the girl they
create a a Facebook profile with the
girl's picture befriend everybody in
high school thinking that's the girl but
it's not she DM's him on Facebook in the
movie this is 11 years ago 2012 and says
hey please don't tell anybody but I
really like you I'm shy I don't want to
tell others but I like the way you oh my
god I've loved you and they're going
back and forth she says I'll show you
mine if I if you show me yours but it's
the two boys so the boy send a picture
of somebody else they got from a porn
side he opens it so he sends it and then
she says but I want to you're facing it
as well so he does the next day he goes
to school everybody's laughing at him
because those two police took the
picture spread it around the school then
the boy runs away comes home is in his
room listening to heavy metal music is
trying to hang himself daughter or
sister walks in prevents it from
happening and saves his life and then
they have to figure out how this
happened because the parents weren't
involved there's so many different
things going right now in
society that we we have to we have to be
aware of people earning stuff phones are
dangerous today that you know kids are
picking up on what can happen to them if
you do you have to educate them if you
do you have to hold them accountable if
you do you have to watch and see what's
going on but in our family um everything
starts with earning uh the currency in
our house I've talked about this God
knows how many times it's reading you
read you earn the right the more you
read the more you can ask for if your
grades are solid you get to ask for more
if it's not you don't and people say Pat
how could you have standards like that
when you had a one point GPA what does
that have to do with anything I didn't
have those standards I simply grew up in
a house that nobody cared what my grades
were they there was never an expectation
of me doing anything like gr so guess
what I'm going to rise up to the
standards of whatever whatever it is as
a 14 15 16 year old there was no
standards so I was left alone in our
house there is standards there is
expectations you got to perform to it
you do you get more so America started
off as
earning we got away from that because
earn is now another one of these curse
words that people don't like to talk
about how could you say something like
that how could you say something like
that all you care about is money all you
care about is this no man I cared about
you being proud of the contribution
you're making to society because the
more proud you are of the contribution
you're making to society the safer the
place is going to be the less you
contribute to society the more bitter
you're going to be feeling like
everybody owes you something and then
you could do something very bad to
everybody else so yes I think we need to
go back to earning like when you're
telling the story of Churchill to have
that moral Authority it's very
interesting to me there's something
super telling in the fact that people
ask you well whoa whoa whoa how can you
ask them to keep their grades up when
you didn't keep your grades up because
that reveals their value system now I
have a feeling that their value system
they've never taken the time to lay it
out and I think one of the biggest
problems when I think about okay what's
ailing men how do we get them back on
track it's what is your value system
what do you how do you believe a man
ought to be write it out then at least
we have something that we can actually
talk about when some somebody says how
can you do that you didn't have good
grades what they're going for I assume
is fairness the second your primary
focus is on fairness and now we have a
problem so the reality is of course life
isn't fair and I don't mean that in any
sort of cheeky way it's just if you're
trying to optimize for fairness you're
setting people up to try to say uh the
game is always going to be controlled go
out there you're going to be fine and
then they're going to get into a fight
and I don't mean a literal fight but
they're going to get into a fight for
their business a fight for a promotion
whatever and it isn't going to play out
fairly and if in that moment they're
emotionally devastated because they've
been taught that everything revolves
around fairness they're going to be in
trouble if on the other hand we and this
is very specifically what Tom Billy
wants people optimizing for what is
effective so you have to have a goal you
have to know what your goal is what am I
aiming at and then you're going to judge
everything by whether or not it's
effectiv