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Language: en
we are being naive not at least publicly
entertaining the possibility that our
antagonists abroad would take advantage
of our famous lack of security and
you're going to see why we have to talk
about genocide somebody has to open
these topics if we are to get past them
and not have them haunt our
future why has it become a meme to say
that America is collapsing like the
Roman Empire growth is petered out we
borrowed from the future we can't do
that anymore uh and now we're getting
tribal yes but I don't believe that it
is
hopeless if I'm honest I believe we will
probably screw it up and it will become
inevitable lovely yeah um but there's a
reason that I'm taking the risks that I
am to talk about these things in public
which is I believe we still have um the
potential to rescue Western ization and
probably if I'm honest about it to
present a 2.0 version that is capable of
dealing with the uh the novelty that the
1.0 version is straining under the the
key thing is human beings
detect the failure of growth because the
failure of growth is not an economic
fact it's a fact of resource scar
scarcity and it has applied to all of
our ancestors for 3 and a half billion
years so it's not that you know growth
didn't get
invented uh in a modern economic
context economics formalized an
understanding of something that is as
Primal as anything
else what must be true in order for us
not to descend into this other phase the
phase where musical chairs the Music
Stops and there are way too few chairs
in which blood is thicker than water and
that's the rule that governs the day the
way to avoid that
fate is to a recognize that it predicts
a great deal about the noises people
will make as it's happening so I'm
watching
the shocking rise in
anti-Semitism and I'm
thinking it's right on time why because
when I did my work back in college about
Hitler as a rational
monster I understood that the targeting
of Jews was a predictable phenomenon
that Jews because they live as a
diaspora are and because they succeed as
a diaspora are a a an obvious Target
When the Music
Stops you get very concrete about that
why does being in diaspora which for
people that aren't familiar with that uh
you're an outside group living in
another country so um people often refer
to the Chinese as being part of a
diaspora because they have a strong
sense of the Homeland but yet they may
live somewhere else yep so let's say
you've got a population and it's
industrious and capable for whatever
reason I would argue that those reasons
are largely cultural maybe entirely so
um but it accumulates some wealth it
achieves some position in
society and
then uh the
racist impulses return and one way that
you can generate growth for a
population is to come up with an excuse
to transfer the wealth of another
population
so the obvious thing to do is to say
well you know geez the reason that
Germany Lost World War I was a Jewish
fifth column and the sorry state of
Germany today is the result of being
stabbed in the back by these people I
mean maybe they shouldn't even be called
people maybe they're Vermin they're
diseased they're disgusting right you
start making those noises and you
justify a significant transfer of wealth
from one population to another but and
this goes back to the question about the
founding fathers obviously the time
period is different but if you imagine
that Germany prior to the Holocaust was
a place that involved a few
lineages and then one lineage starts
playing against the
others right well you create growth for
the one lineage without having to invent
a new tech technology or discover some
more efficient way of accomplishing
something it's phony growth what is it
made of it's made of the stuff that the
people you're killing are leaving behind
it's made of their homes right you're
creating something that feels like
growth for one population by targeting
another population and when that happens
inside of a land mass we call it
genocide and when it happens across a
border we call it War but they're the
same process right you come with an
excuse to attack some population that
can't defend itself and you create the
appearance of growth through
theft right I mean if you had a company
and it could steal from some other
company it would feel like oh well the
value of this company just Rose and the
point is yes you took stuff from
somebody else so I knew that at the
point that the growth ran out you were
going to get rabid anti-Semitism and
frankly it precedes other form forms of
virulent racism but you're going to see
those too and I know where this heads
you're going to come up with excuses for
doing away with people who aren't
entitled to what they have and that does
end in genocide so um you know I think
the bad news is this is where we are in
history the good news is we actually
have much better tools than we did when
this happened previously to understand
what's taking place and to
course but the way you would have to do
that is you would have to create a
mechanism whereby the population was
immunized from the immediate sense of
peril that comes when you run out of new
ways to generate
well-being right when growth is not a
sustainable process and the fact that
our institutions pretend like all you've
got to do you know is keep the thing
pointed in the right Direction and there
will always be plenty of growth that's
not true growth comes from somewhere and
it does not come from that somewhere
regularly you cannot just create a
system that hums along and is always
making new stuff there's boom and
there's bust and you can't afford to
have the bust triggering these genocidal
impulses which is what they will do if
you don't figure out how to address the
question okay uh so right now we have
two Wars going on one in Ukraine and
Russ Russia one in Israel
Gaza uh are they both the genocidal
impulse this is tricky I will say
something is going on in Ukraine and if
there's one thing I know it's that I
don't know enough to understand it okay
there's the obvious part of it right
there's Russia having attacked a
Sovereign Nation and now a generation of
young men have been sacrificed to this
battle so I have nothing but compassion
for the Ukrainian people in that
circumstance but I also know that there
was a question about NATO expansion and
NATO behaved in a way that did not elay
Russia's
fears and more to the point I know that
my own government is in the hands of
people who had their hands on stuff
inside of Ukraine utterly
mysteriously before this war broke out
why is the son of the president involved
as some kind of energy expert inside of
Ukraine this is a story about things I
don't know right so I don't I can't say
how genocide maps onto the conflict in
Ukraine I can say it's a complicated
puzzle Israel and Gaza
the Unspeakable
truth is that you
have innocent people trapped on both
sides of that conflict and you have a
genocidal influence on both sides of
that
conflict it's something I have
not I don't think I've said that
publicly I've implied it and I've hoped
that people would get it and I've been
told by both sides that I'm a terrible
person
but what I said at the beginning of the
conflict was that it was threatening to
drag the entire world back into lineage
against lineage
violence that if we want to save the
west and save the world we have to
rescue the Middle East from this
predicament because I don't think either
side is being irrational
I think they both understand that they
are in a fight to the death and in a
fight to the death the rules are quite
different than you would expect so there
there are
clearly a majority in Israel who wish to
be part of the modern world would like
to get along with their neighbors I
believe that is clear I cannot say the
same thing about the leadership and I am
particularly troubled by the fact that
Netanyahu himself who um I must say
engaged in absolutely alarming behavior
during the pandemic also appears to have
been a facilitator of Hamas in advance
of October 7th in what way what I've
seen is video that appears to be
Netanyahu advocating for the cynical
fueling of Hamas for the purpose of
dividing the Palestinians now my feeling
is whatever that
was
everybody who participated in any way in
making October 7th occur has no business
anywhere near any kind of power this is
the last person that should be in charge
of a military engagement in Gaza
and I don't know what his motives are I
I honestly can't say all I can say is
that he appears to be a madman and
Netanyahu
yes do you think that Netanyahu is
responsible for October
7th if what I have seen that I believe
to be credible evidence of his arguing
to fund Hamas if that is accurate then
he is responsible in some way in like a
conspiratorial hey guys here's the money
I know you're going to to do it kind of
way if we believe in the consent of the
Govern MH and somebody else from outside
the
governed acts to choose your leaders and
those leaders behave badly and you
suffer mightily because of the bad
behavior of leaders that somebody else
chose for you you're
responsible do I know what he was really
thinking how would I know I couldn't
possibly be more of an outsider to this
is this a hypothesis or a
thesis no it's an
extrapolation I don't know how it could
be any
clearer
Palestinians are
people I believe that the right that
allows
me the as a governed person consent over
that process of governance extends to
all people or it should do you think it
matters where we Define a people is that
a relevant part of this or it just it's
a practical question but I you know this
is this is going to drag us cuz I don't
know if you're saying that based on the
UN Charter which talks about a people
and there are certain protections
afforded to them or if you just mean
look any group of people whether it's
somebody in a city or whatever look if
you're going to be
governed you have a a right to consent
in the consent of the Govern sense of
that term I believe people have a right
to self-determination I am not an expert
on Palestinians or the Palestinian
mindset I do not
know what the people of Gaza would have
done without netanyahu's meddling maybe
it would have been the same
thing I don't know what Israel is
supposed to do in light
of this
absolutely barbaric
attack but I do know that whatever
engaged in that attack
put Israel in a
bind there was no way for Israel not to
respond to that attack the brutality was
calculated to make it impossible for
Israel to choose it was calculated to
bring about
a response that would be
overwhelming because somebody thought
that was a good idea presumably Hamas
thought that would be a good idea now
Hamas should be wiped from the Earth
Earth there's no question about that
these are terrible people whatever they
were thinking these are terrible people
and eliminating them would make the
world a better place that's obviously
not the same thing as the Palestinian
people and given the way Hamas embeds
itself what Israel is supposed to do is
not obvious but if there's one thing
that is obvious Netanyahu shouldn't be
in charge of it okay um so that was born
of the question as to whether or not
there is a genocidal impulse that we can
actually put to bed through conversation
by getting people to understand what it
is pulling it into the public
Consciousness and by doing so eradicate
this kind of thing well let let me let
me add one thing just so it's
clear we are all the product
of
genocides that does not track for me
human history is long yep people killing
their competitors is common MH in
history most of it has been lost it
wasn't recorded you're just saying we
are the we're the ones that
won yeah we're here and we are also it
is fair to say all the product of
multiple rapes human history is very
long give me give me a percentage what
percentage of people do you have are
Downstream of a rape oh I think all of
us literally 100% yeah I think you as
soon as you realize how long a period of
ancestry we're talking about the chances
that there's not a rape somewhere in
each of our backgrounds is approaching
zero um that's dark it's dark but it's
also yeah it's dark look at it but once
you have looked at it realize what that
means the potential for rape and
genocide side is something we all carry
we are also capable of getting past it
there is so much hope in that
recognition once you realize that you
are not condemned to live this reality
just because it had a significance in
ancestral
times that's where Liberation comes from
we don't have to live that way we can
actually sit and write down our values
and we can say what is the system that
actually makes us realize those values
at the highest level
right what would we like to happen with
rape well we would like it to go to zero
likewise genocide that's what it means
when we say never again so when I say
that there is a genocidal impulse on
both sides we are seeing the predictable
outcome of a zero sum game in the Middle
East that is
triggering potentials that we all carry
right we can see
exactly why we have to take these
potentials seriously in this
configration and the right thing to do
is actually not beat each beat each
other over the head each side accusing
the other side of genocide the correct
thing to do is to recognize this was
predictable
and we have the power if we'll stop
[ __ ] around with nonsense we have the
power to make the future better than the
past man I'm with you and look um this
this has just become an interview where
throwing out a platitude of I hope
everything's going to be okay it just
does not feel right uh so I will ask the
the more revealing question um it is not
agreed upon as to whether what's
happening right now is genocide and this
is um there are several things you feel
like nobody's listening to you you're
screaming from the rooftops and people
just aren't getting it I have a very
similar sense when I talk to people
people about somebody's frame of
reference the the whole life beer
goggles that will control how they
interpret what people are calling facts
and people of quote um Ben Shapiro and
say facts don't care about your feelings
bro we we cannot agree on what the facts
are or certainly We can't agree on what
the facts mean and I actually don't
think people are playing a game I think
people don't understand
how distorted all of our World Views are
that we actually see only the
distortions and to us you're going to
get people that look at this and go
obviously what's happening in Gaza is a
genocide obviously and you're going to
get people that obviously that's not
genocide this is crazy I can't even
believe we're having this conversation
and each side thinks the other's trying
to play a linguistic game or something
like that and they're missing what I
think is the real truth which is they
they see the world so ferociously in one
way there is literally nothing that you
could show them and I mean nothing that
would make them go oh I see your point
and because there is literally nothing
that you could show them like let's set
the the Jews aside for a second because
this just gets so weird so fast
especially right now uh in Rwanda like
almost a million people were hacked to
death with machetes in like six weeks so
that's
insane
and it keeps happening now I've not
researched the Rwanda in genocide so for
all I know they were both like yeah this
genocide and it's completely Justified
which then just enters another problem
which is yes genocide what's the
problem people really become convinced I
am doing God's bidding I I am doing the
just and right thing in what I'm doing
and the only way that I see getting to
the other side of that is everybody has
to wake up to one simple fact ideas
control everything and what I mean by
that are you believe certain things to
be true you confuse it for objective
reality which is physics but you believe
certain things are true call it is then
you have a set of things your values
that you believe ought to be true and so
now you have is which they confuse for
objective reality and a which they often
confuse with just self-evident or Divine
whatever and like this is
non-negotiable and both of those things
will be ferociously debated by the other
side who sees the truth of neither they
have their own is and their own ought
and so until we all go huh I know I'm in
the grips of a delusion I cannot see
things clearly and so we all have to
come to some set of shared values and
then you build up from that if we can't
share values I don't no matter how much
you talk about genocide you will death
Loop because people just sidestep it by
saying but this isn't genocide or
genocide is right yeah it is genocide
but hey it's what we have to do that was
a very good summation uh it overlaps
many things that I also believe I think
distinguishing between uh beliefs and
values is crucial um what you're what
you're saying uh with respect to we are
all suffering a delusion I agree is
correct I call this the carian crisis
and I think we are kneed deep in it and
it is if you understand its implications
it's
terrifying um the cartisian crisis I I
named it that after dick Hart Who became
spooked when he realized that all of the
things that he thought were facts what
you say you think it's physics but it's
beliefs he had not established himself
self and therefore was taking it on some
kind of
authority um the problem is that the
systematically induced blindness that is
being inflicted on the public is
creating a scenario in which we really
can't establish much of anything and
that does leave us vulnerable to being
sold a narrative right it just fills the
vacuum of what you might actually
believe in common the obvious right
thing for us to
want is an agreement on Basics that
Enlightenment is better than deciding
what you're allowed to believe for
example let's pursue Enlightenment let
us agree to share facts we can differ
over values we should talk about which
values should govern how we are to live
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gifts using the one tool that actually
allows us to establish those facts in a
way that is utterly
nonpartisan science works because it is
built to tell you what you do not
believe it corrects for biases if it
were not for this one value it wouldn't
be worth doing it's too cumbersome and
slow but because it is the only system
that allows you to see exact exactly the
thing that you do not
expect it has the capability of telling
us what is true and to know that it is
true on the basis that it predicts
things better than some other idea so
that's the tool it belongs to no one or
it belongs to us all equally and those
who politicize it are putting us all in
Jeopardy this is really this is why I
I'm trying to bring this tool to people
in this way and show them that it
applies to the things that they're
battling over and that the
only uh the only way out is through we
have to learn to wield this tool to
figure out where we even are in an era
where all of the institutions that
should be doing that job are failing at
once we're going to have to build
institutions that work some people think
we can rescue the institutions we have
I'm less and less convinced of that but
I know that we can build something that
does the job and we have to stop
bludgeoning each other over over the
product of scientific inquiry you know
the facts are what they are and then the
values tell you what to think about them
and if you divide things in that way so
that we're not battling over the facts
based on the the idea that they are
somehow themselves immoral then there's
there's
hope can I try an idea out on you please
all right I think that the way the human
animal is designed that there is no way
for us to come to a cons ensus the only
way to get us to operate in mutually
beneficial ways is to tap into other
base [ __ ] which I will just round to
Greed but I don't mean in a bad way I
think the only way out for something
like Israel Hamas is to get people
obsessed with the future of their
children if you believe that the
brightest future for your your kids
could be um getting killed uh being
martyred going to heaven
then that idea traps you now violence is
rad like that's a great way to ensure
that your child has a wonderful future
if on the other hand you believe my
child's future can be full of education
and I guess I'll say terrestrial love
here on this planet for at least this
period of time and tomorrow is going to
be better than today and that they're
going to make progress and it's going to
be wonderful and they're going to grow
up and they're going to fall in love and
they're going to have kids and you know
this is going to go on forever that
feels like when I Look Backwards to
identify how to move forwards I go yes
you want
progress health and
safety love for one's kin to see them
grow up etc
etc uh I think you're right on the
question of Islam I will just simply
point out that there are numerous
examples in the Middle East in
which Islamic
States attempted to modernize were
embracing values that were not exactly
Western but we moving in that direction
and I believe that
unfortunately for reasons that in the
end were profoundly economic we have
disrupted
this process we in the west have
disrupted this process and it has
created a a conflagration that did not
need to happen how did we disrupt it
well uh the Sha of Iran was
installed uh
to basically facilitate
uh uh transfer of economic resources we
overrode a democratic impulse in
Iran and it has resulted in a
Theocratic Rebellion so what would have
happened uh
if we had not meddled in Iran would Iran
today be where it is or is that entirely
the result of
resentment against the West that has
left a vacuum that has been filled uh by
a
a um well to connect it to an earlier
part of the
conversation you have these two bases
for cooperation you have reciprocity
which I would argue is the way the
modern world should be structured and
there is lineage against lineage
violence and I believe that our meddling
in the Middle East
has set the course to lineage against
lineage violence which we now
largely wrongly blame on the content of
the religious
Doctrine right the religious Doctrine
does
contain this violence but the question
is exactly as is the
case uh with Israel right the Old
Testament contains some really toxic
stuff but most Israelis want to be part
of the modern world right the fact that
there's this bad stuff uh in the
founding documents is not fate um
so I'm not sure what to do with that and
I've I've gotten
detained um trying to trying to explain
this connection but the right thing to
do is to recognize that we are all
better off all of humanity is better off
if we do Embrace you're calling it greed
I wouldn't use that term but if we
recognize that humanity is
improved when human beings are enabled
to compete in a way that uh ecologically
we would call exploitation competition
there's two kinds of competition you've
got exploitation competition and
interference competition right if I bomb
your Factor so you can't make stuff I am
arguably competing with you but it's a
destructive kind of competition if I try
to make better stuff than you in order
to out compete you in the market and you
try to make better stuff than me because
you want to succeed then the point is
what we get is an improvement in the
quality of the things we have access to
so what you really want at the end of
the day and I'm not telling you I know
how to instantiate this but you what you
really want at the end of the day is for
people to profit when they bring things
to the table that improve the
quality the length of human
life um the way to do that to the extent
that there's a something we can
describe is to
internalize all of the costs of our
activities and let the market solve the
problem if you let the market solve the
problem and if somehow and I'm not
claiming I know how to do it because it
may just simply not be possible but if
you did internalize all of the costs of
every product and every
process so that at the end of the day
the only people who profited were people
who made things that actually made us
better off you don't need to do anything
else that solves the entire problem
right there then you get people spending
their time trying to figure out how to
improve the standing of humanity and
when they succeed the quality of their
personal life gets enhanced that's what
you want that that allows the market to
do what it's good at without interfering
with our values and um it
minimally facilitates or it it prevents
the outbreak of tyrannical impulses the
market simply tells us uh what things
should be augmented and which things
should be abandoned based on whether or
not their impact on Humanity was
positive yeah why has it become a meme
to say that America is collapsing like
the Roman Empire what are people trying
to deal with when they say that I think
there is a palpable Sensation
that the system is coming apart so I
think it's not incorrect to think of
collapse occurring I think of it as a
slow motion collapse I don't think of
the Roman Empire very frequently other
than just the simple fact that something
that seemed as robust as it must have
can also come apart I also remember from
childhood the surprise collapse of the
Soviet Union but once you recognize that
things that seem like they are forever
still end uh it's not hard to recognize
the signs in in where we are now I guess
I'm glad we're finally having that
discussion because the risk that that
the Republic was going to come apart
was there and has been for decades and
uh if if we are going to get through
this phase either by rescuing the
republic or figuring out how to walk
away from a a crash landing it's going
to be because we understand what the
implications are I've heard you say that
the rational Optimist position isn't
wrong we can get there but we're not
going to get there by accident so what
is it that is being chipped away at now
that's stop stopping us from naturally
ending up on the optimistic path I think
we have antagonists to our ability to
understand where we are and in fact um
I've grown tired of the idea of sense
making you know that that concept became
Hackney but there is some need to
Grapple with the evidence around you and
to put it together into some kind of
model and uh
we have some force that is opposed to
our ability to do that well it is
denying us basic information on readily
answerable questions that would allow us
to navigate the most basic issues of of
life well and so we keep injuring
ourselves because something
is is acting to keep us in the dark what
are some of the things that it's
stopping us from seeing
well let's take an obvious question from
the covid
crisis we were told that the MRNA shots
were safe and
effective they have now been given to
literally billions of people we have
highly credible claims of certain
patterns of pathology that have Arisen
Downstream and we have a
mind-numbing set of denials over the
connection between for
example
tumors uh various kinds of cardiac
issues
and anybody who has gone through the
process of studying science knows that
these are not difficult questions there
are difficult questions but the
simple are people who took these shots
more prone to X Y or Z condition than
people who didn't take them that is not
a hard thing to ascertain and yet we are
just simply going to battle over it till
the end of time because it is somehow
become important that we not be able to
reach a scientifically robust conclusion
about it that's what I want to better
understand so uh as a student of History
I am growing more and more concerned
just about a slide towards
totalitarianism for a desire for
authoritarian control being a good thing
seeping into the public Consciousness I
look at the world as a battle of ideas
and when the wrong ideas become
celebrated you get really deep problems
so what I'm trying to map is okay uh we
have this thing you'll often refer to it
as Goliath but whatever an entity the
elites the whatever whatever uh
government whatever we want to label
that thing as is trying to Blind us but
I don't think that they care
about the efficacy of the V like that
doesn't feel that feels like it's the
symptom not the thing they really care
about what they really care about I
think is they want to make sure that you
comply and compliance is the game and if
you can see that they're fallible and
talk about it then it's much harder to
get compliance um does that feel right
an element of it feels very right but
they left us with a
mystery they had a technology on which
to build something that they called a
vaccine very deceptively but they used
that term to place it in our blind spot
because most people myself included had
the sense that vaccines um were
tremendously well tested that the the
risks that come along with them tend to
be small Co has forced a a rethink of
that but if the entire Point had been
compliance they would have been smart
enough to recognize that that the
technology that they were using to make
these shots
was extremely risky and that it could
well backfire because the range of
pathologies that you could in principle
trigger with such a shot was
huge so the question is if the real
point was can we can we make you take a
shot the smart thing to do would have
been to give a shot that was
effectively uh neutral that was a
placebo you know maybe you could have
such low concentrations of the active
ingredient that it wouldn't have had any
impact and if they had done that I think
they'd be in a lot better position today
because people would not in general have
a list of friends who had some severe
negative reaction to these things and
they would be able to play the same
games they play with Statistics to claim
that they had been effective and if they
had done that and there wasn't a pattern
of pathology then all of those of us who
were worried about what we were told
these these things were going to do to
the body uh would look foolish and their
ability to get people to comply in the
future would be that much greater so I
don't have the sense that a simple game
of forcing people to comply could
possibly explain the shots for some
reason they wanted people to take
them okay so I want to start teasing two
ideas apart so one I want to figure
figure out why they want to Blind us
while I think it's overblown to say that
America is declining like the Roman
Empire when if you're thinking the Roman
Empire declined quickly when in reality
I think it's probably a very slow
process uh that we may or may not be in
we may get better over the next 10 years
and and then collapse who who knows or
drag it out forever whatever um so I
think it is important for people to
understand when they're talking about
you or anybody else in that group that I
see sort of being attacked now in a way
that they weren't five or six years ago
to understand when you're saying I think
this is worthy of exploration and when
you're saying I've explored a lot of
stuff and this one I'm really going to
plant a stake in the ground uh because I
have a feeling we're going to touch on
both in the conversation today okay so
uh going back to the question I really
want to pin down which is why blind us
what's the point let's talk about the
issue of blinding and I'll just tell you
my own thought process I come from a
background studying complex systems I'm
a biologist I'm an evolutionary
biologist and I'm very interested in
levels of analysis so I I I come to
questions of uh how human societies
function through that lens and a
hypothesis in such a case tends to be
actually a nested series of
subhypotheses and you build them out and
the more that they stand up to new
observations the more truth they are
likely to contain so I build up a model
and if I see something next week that's
inconsistent with it my point is well my
confidence in that model is pretty low
but if I have a model and it goes a year
or two years and all I see are things
that actually fit with it I tend to get
the sense maybe it's it's right or it's
analogous to something that's right so
the question of why they are blinding us
here is what I have become increasingly
confident of again is a hypothesis but
uh it's amazing how well it
predicts events and phenomena going
forward we are locked in competitive
struggles all the time inherently and
that's not a bad thing in fact it's the
engine that makes Western Civilization
work it just needs to be placed in I
used to think of it as like the
explosive energy in an internal
combustion engine cylinder
right an explosion isn't a productive
thing but in that context it can be very
very productive but when you are in a
competitive system there is a an
advantage that acrs to anybody who has
Superior
information
and what I I mean this almost feels too
obvious to me at this point for it not
to be on everybody's mind but we proceed
by imagining that there is a level of
patriotism that we share with other
people in our system that surely they
have the same sense of America or the
West being this marvelous structure in
which to accomplish new things to
innovate and they must therefore want to
protect it as well and we have a harder
time
grappling with well what if they don't
see it in those terms and what if
actually
there's a group of folks who's very
powerful
who views
democracy as a frightening mechanism
that can upend whatever it is you're
attempting to accomplish based on the
whim of a public that may not know what
it's doing I mean I actually I
understand that concern democracy can do
things that are destructive and so if
you had a position of power you might
view the fact that the public can throw
out leadership and install somebody
who's saying things that resonate with
them with a certain amount of
trepidation so if you didn't have the
sense that the west and its its uh
obligation to the consent of the Govern
was a positive thing you might start
playing against people that we would
tend to think they would be playing uh
alongside they would be building
up a whole range of topics in which they
Superior information allowed them to get
ahead at the expense of others I mean
this is if we think about a financial
Market economists talk about the greater
fool how do you make money you find
somebody who understands less than you
do and you trade things and basically
you take advantage of what they don't
understand and their wealth is
transferred to you in so doing and that
actually can be a positive force if what
you understand is something about the
future that is not clear to others if
you're really insightful then you can
get Wealthy by seeing the future with
greater Clarity but you can also do the
same trick by blinding your competitors
by making it so that the information
that they would use to figure out what's
coming is not available to them and what
would that look like well this is where
the rubber meets the road with this idea
it would look like an attack on all of
the things that allow us to navigate all
of the sources of public truth seeking
it would look like an attack on all
newspapers it would look like an attack
on universities and science it would
look like an attack on journals it would
ultimately look like an attack on the
courts and that just simply matches the
evidence that we have all of these
public truth seeking mechanisms are
becoming Dumber by the hour and what
that is doing is it is putting people
in people who who see this problem are
correctly recognizing that they are much
better off to unplug from those
institutions and attempt to figure out
what's going on outside of them but what
many of them do not realize is what a
poor substitute for public truth seeking
that actually is you know I mean might
be good for people like you and me it
brings an audience that wants to hear a
conversation that hasn't been sanctioned
by one of these lobotomized institutions
but from the point of view of the
average person trying to figure out what
to make of the advice that their doctor
is giving them or the FDA is telling
them about nutrition uh it's a poor
substitute and it is the reason that I
fear collapse is that I don't you know
you can put on a blindfold and you can
keep driving down the road for a time
but at some point there's going to be a
curve and we can't we can't can't drive
like this we we have to rescue ourselves
from whatever it is whatever Force
whether I'm right about its nature or
not that is keeping us from establishing
the basic facts of Our Lives okay do you
see this as a WF super conspiracy or is
this just emergent behavior of um people
who get into positions of power whether
economically like somebody running a big
company or politically uh and they think
huh I like what I'm able ble to do
better in this position and so there's
you know whatever 50,000 people that
just have that slight inclination of oo
this would be a little better for me if
I had a little bit more control and then
the emerging Behavior starts to look
like a coordinated attack but in reality
it's just a lot of little people um
trying to make their own lives a little
bit richer more
controlled uh I have substantial
confidence that it is going to be a
combination of both things now I look at
the we F and there's a part of me that
thinks that's too dumb and too obvious
to actually be the entity that maybe it
stands as a a front for whatever
actual thing is colluding behind the
scenes but I do I do think that there is
a component that is quite obviously
colluding against public understanding
but there are also numerous mechanisms
that will cause people to innovate in
the direction of that Force without ever
being contacted without being paid by it
they will simply do it because a system
of incentives causes them to uh to to
move in the same direction and we see
this on topic after topic if we try to
establish the basic facts for example
of climate
change what we find is Fields full of
people presumably most of them are
well-intentioned
concerned about what they see as a real
emergency and doing their best to
elucidate it so the rest of us can see
it but if you if you've lived inside the
academy you know also
that a field like climate science at the
moment will not welcome counterveiling
evidence and what that means is that the
evidence you see doesn't have the
implication that you think it has even
if the studies you see are
accurate you're not seeing the studies
that weren't done that would have
provided a different View and
across all of these
questions our ability to have an open
Frank conversation in which all of the
evidence is aired is
fundamental it occurred to me the other
day that this really is the reason that
free speech and the free exchange of
ideas is so tightly bound with the other
rights of the West is that the consent
of the Govern means nothing if the
Govern can't have a discussion that
would allow them to vote in the
direction of reason so you can you can
wreck a democracy by Wrecking speech
even if people are perfectly free to
vote for whatever they want you don't
need to game the election itself if the
public mind is confused by being starved
of actual information so that's what I'm
seeing uh both in the informal sphere
and very much in the institutional
formal sphere it is uh it's
hallucinating is what we're seeing the
hallucinations that will cause a person
with suspicions to see them rendered in
elaborate
form um I don't know if I fully answered
your question about emergence versus
collusion well so you did in the sense
that you said it's going to be a
combination of all of them what I want
to do is start pursuing what exactly
that looks like in reality um because I
we may be saying exactly the same thing
or we may be saying something different
but my take goes something like this
um you well know what I'm about to say
because you're the one that taught it to
me but the Earth uh its rotation it
changes its tilt changes there's like
these three different things that add up
slight variations over different time
scales um that caused the Earth to cool
and warm and so we have long before
humans were here Ice Age no Ice Age Ice
Age no ice age and it went back and
forth back and forth because of these
slight pertubations that change that
determine how much cooler things get in
the summer how much snow then
accumulates over years which then turns
into an ice age and then it wobbles back
the other way and a little bit of snow
melts and a little more and a little
more until um you warm back up okay so
it's it's these huge huge macro trends
that are basically colliding waves and
every now and then they hit it just the
right way and you get a rogue wave and
that's what I think is happening right
now I yeah there's probably a little bit
of collusion yes there's probably just
the authoritarian desire for power um
yes some people probably just aren't
intellectually powerful enough to hold
really nuanced ideas in their head and
so when you're dealing with social media
and there's just a massive velocity and
volume of information
H I just need something so I'm team blue
I'm team red nice simplistic just tell
me what to do and I'm going to do it
just so that I don't have to think
through all these
problems and what this moment feels like
is a rogue wave I have no sense of how
big the Rogue Wave is I just know it's
the biggest wave in my lifetime uh so
certainly possible that now compared to
the Civil War this is nothing and we're
super safe and all is going to be well
but what I want to begin teasing out are
what are those elements that are coming
together now so we've talked about
whether it's the WF but just like Elites
actually colluding and I will say um the
fed the way that banking is run all of
that guaranteed even if they're just out
in the open it is a group of people that
have an agenda and they very much
control what you know what you
understand what they tell you when they
tell you uh they want to make sure that
you understand as little about printing
money as possible so on and so forth so
you definitely have the what I'll call
official collusion maybe with the best
of intentions maybe not but nonetheless
um then you get things happening at the
local level where at the Schoolboard
level there's movements there that are
taking over where they're trying to ice
out parents and they've got the FBI
investigating parents as terrorists and
so you've got some weird sort of local
thing happening then you've got what's
going on at the uh social media level
where people the platforms are being
pressured on what to show what not to
show on and on and on we go but each of
those feel to me that they are driven by
the same sort of it's all humans but
slightly different things like the FED
to me is not the same thing that's going
on at the local school
board two things and I'm I I don't want
us to get lost but your your example the
milankovich cycles that cause the
oscillation between ice ages and
interglacials
uh is well Chosen and it it it
illuminates actually the way to
reconcile your presentation and
mine but I think your audience is going
to have to indulge me in order to make
it clear
why so we have these three orbital
oscillations we have uh the obliquity of
the orbit we have the procession of the
axis of the uh Earth and we have the
degree Dee of tilt these things are
independent of each other and they
oscillate on separate time scales we
have 100,000 year cycle a 41,000 year
cycle and a 21,000 year cycle each of
them has a very tiny influence on the
amount of solar radiation that actually
reaches the Earth even together they
have a small impact so if I was to push
a button and cause them all to go into
the phase where they cool the Earth for
one year you wouldn't be able to tell
that year from any other it might be
slightly cool but it would not be
decidedly cool what happens though is
that when these patterns align such that
they cause the amount of ice that
remains in the northern hemisphere over
the summer to be slightly larger they
turn the Earth slightly whiter because
ice happens to be white and white
surfaces reflect energy back into space
which causes the following year to be
slightly cooler when the following year
is slightly cooler slightly more ice
sticks around through the northern
summer the year after that is slightly
cooler so almost all of what causes
glaciation to happen is the result of
this amplifier it is not the result of
the milankovich Cycles which set it in
motion it is the amplifier that does the
work right it's like if you imagine uh
you know MC Jagger in the Rose Bowl
singing his heart out nobody in the back
row would be able to hear very much
right it's the mechanisms that amplify
his voice but they're not adjusting the
content of his voice he's still mcjagger
he's just having a huge impact based on
all of the things that amplify his voice
and then project it to all of the people
at home who weren't there that is likely
where we are the actual collusion maybe
a tiny fraction of what's going on but
it's like a navigational fraction it's
setting our Direction and then these
organic emergent processes are causing
it to become a terrifying Force rather
than you know a joke where 10 Apes
gathered in a room and decided to steer
the world in some direction that sounds
Preposterous but given the capacity
for markets and Fields of study to
amplify thinking to amplify motivated
reasoning we we get the same kind of
puzzle so I don't disagree with you that
the majority of it may be emergent but I
don't think that's the that's the place
to concentrate if we want to fight back
but the the way to understand where
we're headed is to focus on the part
that is doing the steering and um that's
not so easy to do because of course
we're not invited we have to we have to
extrapolate from the pattern on the
outside
yes but I think we'll be able to
describe the um the phenomena of okay
we're being blinded we're being censored
there are things the the just massive
attempt to shrink the Overton window so
that so many things were not allowed to
be spoken about um which again from
where I'm sitting that feels like the um
the emergent phenomenon more than just
just overlords cuz this really gets
complicated I've been over here trying
trying to like write down all the things
that I think um create this so the
current variations of uh the movich
minkovich cycle uh but so you've got
growth has stopped which we probably
need to talk about uh you've got just
the internet and social media again
going back to the idea of velocity and
volume of information you've got the
nanny state which I guess Jonathan
height wrote a new book about not read
it yet but I'm super eager to see uh the
consequences of that you've also got uh
I forget who wrote the book but about um
therapists now just affirm affirm affirm
and how that's creating additional
spiral of this like sense of I need to
be protected uh and then you've also got
just the um
postmodernist thinking that has swept
through the institutions that now is as
we have a generation of people that have
been taught that they all have Tik Tok
and Instagram accounts and they're just
like blasting this stuff out there as
fast as so you can and now as from my
Thinking Beyond the collusion those are
the things that are creating this moment
do you think I missed anything well you
you mentioned it in that last
piece um but I'm not sure I'm not sure
it's highlighted well enough yet there
is an aspect of social media that causes
a totally unnatural amp simplification
of very natural human
Tendencies and I've been thinking more
about the Overton window and the fact
that it
has um it has an
analytical uh connotation to it right
what are the ideas that are beyond the
ones we're ready to to
contemplate but then I started to notice
uh I've I've become increasingly Su uh
suspicious of what I call polite society
and more what does that mean well polite
Society uh at the risk of causing your
audience to think me crazy I I took up I
accepted uh Alex Jones offer to come on
his
program and that caused an interesting
freakout most of what most of which was
not actually about what I said on Alex
Jones program but it caused what I said
on Joe Rogan's program to be scrutinized
in a way way that was uh new and I think
quite
mean-spirited um and because people
think Alex Jones is off his rocker if
you've gone on his show you must be off
your rocker let me go look at what you
said and prove it yes but I also think
there is a
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concern I think going on Alex Jones
program would have made less sense
before Tucker Carlson had interviewed
him that that actually brought Alex
Jones
into a discussion where it had formally
been possible formerly been possible
just to Simply dismiss him out of hand
and the problem with Alex Jones from the
point of view of polite Society is that
he's not just simply wrong about
everything that would be easy to deal
with but he's often right and so uh what
does one do with somebody who has simply
given up up
on uh staying within any bounds is
willing to e