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Language: en
what social media and just the
democratization of everything has given
us is some insight into how rotten our
institutions were in the first place
there's a kind of woke ification of the
right is that is happening like it's
like professional wrestling nobody cares
that it's fake if I was caught doing
that I would lose my 100% of my audience
you have to hear what they have to say
no but but that's that's a
self-reinforcing sorry let me just
finish the point the smell of [ __ ]
is is is detectable far enough on that
you just don't have to spend time with
it you're not going to put New Media
back in in the tube right that's
toothpaste is out it's out there people
are going to have those conversations
whether you like that or not and we have
you know islamist stealth groups in
every Western Society I certainly in
America and the
UK we are living in an age now of
conspiracy people believe that the
people in power the experts the
institutions are lying to them and I
want to know does this create problems
that we should be worried about and if
it does why should people listen to the
two of you why are you guys
trustworthy well you want to start no
you go first okay um well I something
I'm quite worried about I think I think
we're getting profoundly misinformed by
the the tools we've built and
um I mean I think it's a it's a
multi-level problem on the one hand many
of us feel that what's social media and
just the democratization of everything
has given us some insight into how
rotten our institutions were in the
first place right so like we just
there's much more
transparency um you know the emperor has
no clothes in many cases but I think
it's in in part that's true but I think
what has also happened is that the
institutions have become corrupted by
the tools we have built so you know as
as uh my friend Barry Weiss pointed out
when she left the New York Times that
you Twitter had effectively become the
editorial board of the times when she
left and that's that's not simply a
matter of of shining sunlight onto the
Distortion of of the priorities of the
times it the tools effectively distorted
the priorities of the times um and in
you know for some period there almost
ruined it
um so I just think we have to
acknowledge that we have built a machine
for propagating hallucinations and and
distortions of of reality that that um
we don't know how to use and so yeah so
to come to your question about why
either of us are are better Brokers of
information I mean I think you have to
look at
the what we're specifically doing and
the incentives we have built in our you
know various platforms to to um motivate
us to to to work and I mean I've been
very careful
about this phenomenon of you of audience
capture which is you what happens to to
even people with with real integrity and
the best intentions they notice a signal
In Their audience they notice an
appetite for a certain message and
because they're incentivized to to feed
that that signal um they do it and they
just they they they wind up becoming
radicalized By Their audience and and
because this this may be less true true
of you given the kinds of topics you
touch but um maybe not
I've uh I'm really not political by
tendency I I just hate politics I just
view all of it as just ma this massive
opportunity cost and so whenever I touch
politics I'm tending to I'm I'm really
not aligned right or left in any kind of
U predictable way and so I want to
pissing off people on both sides I I
certainly piss off the far left and the
far right I would think equally at this
point and so
um on whenever I'm touching a a very
topical polarizing issue I'm pissing off
some considerable portion of the
audience and so I've just learned to
simply not care what the audience wants
and so I so I can honestly say that I'm
never
uh even feeling the the impulse to be
blown around by the the wind of
sentiment in my audience I mean it's
just it's just not what's happening I
just I find what I I think is
interesting and consequential and I talk
about it and you know since I deleted my
Twitter account I don't even you I
almost never even see what's coming back
at me so it's um you know for for better
or worse I I don't see what's coming
back at me and and so I'm I'm really not
I'm just calling it as I see it and um
you know I'm very happy to to built a
system that allows me to do
that okay so you you don't have the
deranging incentives that a lot of
people have Constantin um talk to me
about I is what we're going through
problematic and if so in what specific
way so I think Sam laid out yes it's a
problem but why exactly what what does
this derangement do to us as a culture
so much that we should do podcasts about
it may I also pick up on some of the
things that Sam mentioned as well um one
of the things I would say first and
foremost is I've never made the claim
that other people should listen to me uh
I and I I am not intent on making that
claim uh in the future the the only the
only area where I might invite people to
listen to me
is the invitation for critical thinking
I I think that's an area where I hope
that me saying that is helpful but apart
from that people should make up their
own
minds I think we're I think a lot of the
critiques that Sam has been making for
some time are exactly right about the
nature of Institutions first and then
the response from the media to them
because I think it's I don't know if
this is true but I suspect we have the
least corrupt institutions we've ever
had that's very possible I'm not saying
that is true I'm saying that's a
possibility and what has happened over
time is our insight into how corrupt
they are has improved our ability to
understand how corrupt they are so of
course they are corrupt but they may be
a lot less corrupt and and we can sort
of logically think about that from the
perspective of if power corrupts when
the New York Times literally had a
monopoly on all information I imagine
they use that power even more than they
have been in recent decades right so
what has happened is our faith in
institutions has
declined because we no longer willing to
tolerate the level of corruption that we
now know is there
the problem is that at the end of the
day we still have to at some point be
able to agree on what reality is and we
are now in a space where I think that
the fragmentation of our reality has
reached levels that are actually
unprecedented to the point where uh if
you think about words or names or
anything they no longer mean the same
thing to to to most people even more so
than in the past so the way I think
about it now is if you take a name Sam
Harris Donald Trump Constantine Kum
whoever the person who's hearing that
phrase has an experience of who that
person is that will be quite often
almost entirely different to what a
another person who looks just like them
sitting next to them has of that same
person so uh what Sam Harris is to
people depends on what Sam Harris
content they've encountered um what
constant and and and we can go down the
path
so how do you then have a conversation
about ideas about people about anything
I think the fragmentation of our reality
is is a really scary thing and then you
layer on top of that the other point
that Sam made which I think we're seeing
play out
and you know I I've always been very
hesitant to to believe in the idea that
audience capture is ubiquitous and
affecting everybody and I've late I have
realized over time is because I'm a very
highly disagreeable person person so
from day one I've been like I really
enjoy I don't I don't enjoy I am willing
to be unpopular with different people
because I care about the truth I care
about and I'm not saying that I have
better access to the truth than other
people I just care about pursuing it in
my own way um so on trigonometry over
time we have pissed off left and right
you know like Sam Sam you know during
the summer of BLM we were very clear
that what was happening was a problem
January the 6th we were were also clear
that was a problem but there were a lot
of people for whom it was either or
either BLM was a problem or janary the 6
was a problem you couldn't say that both
were a problem right uh and we lost I
call it pruning we prune our audience
all the time it's like well if you want
to be extreme this may not be the right
place for you and I'm much more
interested in you know having a million
subscribers on YouTube which is where
approximately we are now but pursuing
the truth as best Francis and I can
versus having 10 million subscribers and
and pandering to an audience that makes
me resent myself and them um but the
other thing we all know is human beings
do respond to incentiv so in the world
in which you know it's very clear to me
that the modern uh information ecosystem
is not optimizing for truth it's
optimizing for outrage it's optimizing
for extremism it's optimizing for uh
engagement which those two things
produce and I I I noticed this uh I mean
there's a kind of I'm trying to
introduce this concept into the culture
and I don't know if you'll agree with me
on this but there's a kind of woke
ification of the right is that is
happening Define that um well if you
think about what um defines wokeness in
terms of tactics and behavior it's uh
glorification of
victimhood uh hyp sensitivity and
attempts to restrict the speech of
others where conflicts with their
pre-existing ideas that is all happening
on the right and I I really experienced
this I wrote an article my substack that
I then made into a video called Tucker
Carlson and the woke right which was a
response to his trip to Russia where he
you know magically discovered that they
have shopping carts and you know
basically misled the American people
about the idea that food is cheaper in
Russia which is complete BS in relative
terms Russian people spend way more of
their household income on food and it's
not because they eat more it's because
it's way more
expensive and every single major
influencer that I've discuss this not
every single sorry I take that back most
people who you would see on your X feed
or on your YouTube that I've spoken to
about they don't give a [ __ ] they do not
care they just think taka Carlson is
this big name who has a huge audience
and that's what they care about now that
worries me tremendously because if we
are talking about making sense of things
making sense requires the ability to say
this has gone too far we have now
reached a stage where we're not talking
about the truth we are now pandering
playing to our audience compensating for
our own psychological
traumas in Tucker's case I think it's
his support for the war in Iraq means
that he's anti every American
intervention anywhere now um and that
means if we're not OP if if the
incentive structures are not there to
optimize for truth then we are going to
get whatever it is that we're optimizing
for which seems to be outrage and the
hottest take and the mechanism for
challenging that just doesn't seem to be
in place at all um
so I I think last time I was here we
spoke about the positive impact I
thought New Media was making and I think
in terms
of the democratization of information I
think that was necessary but I think I
was I was a little blind truthfully to
the long-term impact and you actually
made the point at the time as I recall
that I was a little blind to what the
flip side of that coin was going to be
so I think we we're in a very tumultuous
time and how our how our information
system adjusts to that will I think
determine where the world goes all right
one thing I find when people are
debating a point is that they're not
getting to the underlying assumptions
that drive their world view and
therefore my wife and I have a rule in
our marriage never argue about the Tea
the biggest argument we ever got into
was over a cup of tea which of course
was not actually about the cup of tea it
was about the underlying assumptions and
the tea just became the lightning rod
well she's British so she
serious no doubt no doubt uh so I hear
you guys both saying this is a problem I
hear we're even circling around the
truth and the truth if I were just
listening to this and this was all I
knew of the two of you I'd say the truth
matters but I don't yet understand why
and I feel like the culture war is
really a war where two people think they
have the truth but they have not agreed
upon how you determine what is true I'm
hyper sensitive and I've mentioned this
to you before I know you and Jordan
really derailed on how we Define truth
so instead of um necessarily right now
getting into how we Define what is true
I want to understand why the truth
matters and I'll say just for Simplicity
that the truth is the Bedrock upon which
you can build the rest of your life and
you won't have a hard time making
predictions uh so this stupid example
but it will Orient people is nobody
walks out of their second floor window
because we all agree foundationally the
gravity is real and you can just sort of
take it for granted um so my thing has
always been just to give truth of
proximity it's that which has predictive
power so I can predict that if I step
out my window I will fall and get hurt
it's predictive so if if we can all
agree on that definition
um is that why you guys think truth
matters in that it just gives you a
foundation and you can build upon or is
there some other
reason well the truth matters
because there is a reality uh
and you know if we're not tracking it to
some
pragmatic approximation in our lives
we're just going to bump into hard hard
objects you know I mean it's just on
every level from our health to our
figuring out uh you know what the
weather is going to be tomorrow I mean
just like we're in relationship to to A
system that is much bigger than
ourselves and if we're delusional about
cause and effect and you know any any
picture of of how things happen um
we're just going to be you know
perpetually victimized by our our
ignorance right so I mean so
representing having a map that fits the
territory to a first approximation has
been useful long before we could even
form the concepts that would allow us to
have a conversation about it I mean
epistemology is you know came online
before we we had the concept of
epistemology which is how we know things
so um I don't think anyone has to defend
the value of of tracking the truth uh I
think it's you know we're always just
approximating it and we're we're never
arriving at some final truth that uh no
longer admits of any other argument or
or you know possible counter evidence um
it's not that everything's always up for
grabs equally but uh it's usually a
matter
of of of a probabilistic sense of what's
true and some the probabilities tend to
get so high that we no longer are
disposed to reconsider things right so
if you're going to ask well you know
does D do we know anything about the
biological basis of inheritance and does
DNA have something to do with it well
you know
99.999% of biologists will say yes DNA
is the is the answer to that question
and it's not that we understand
everything about it but we understand
enough that that's not where the the new
Theory making is happening you in
biology um and the you know but the the
the problem and this is especially a
problem in the current context of social
media and alternative media you can
always find a crazy PhD or a PhD who's
who's semi crazy and has a you know he
just a hobby horse that he can't get off
of who will attest to anything no matter
how crazy right so you could see there's
there are enough people with with
graduate degrees on any topic that you
know the the cigarette industry could
find a bunch of phds to swear you know
in front of Congress that that cigarette
smoking is not addictive right so even
when they knew it was so you can since
you can always find those people it's
not enough to have found one guy who
will tell you that you know vaccines
cause autism and will swear and swear
and swear again even when he loses his
medical license um and it we
wise again given all the caveats about
bad incentives and the Poss ability of
of um you know any even the most
esteemed institutions becoming corrupt
were wise to
trust by default the consensus of
experts most of the time and and and
it's not it's not to say that they're
can't be a lone genius who proves the
experts wrong and overturns our Paradigm
that happens but but this is you know
the extraordinary claims require
extraordinary evidence juristic right I
me just if you're going to say that you
have a
a new version of physics and it allows
for time travel okay we you you you you
we all need to triage our attention and
our time and decide whether or not this
is worth you worth a podcast or worth
you know it's certainly worth you worth
being invited to a conference um often
the answer is no I mean usually the
answer is no under what
rubric well again it's it's there's no
algorithm for deciding what's real
because it's just you know this that
would be can I prop computationally
impossible well I mean it's just it's
just actually it's just functionally
impossible we we can't we can't in
advance know what we will what we will
later know I mean the know we just can't
produce knowledge that way right so it's
always iterative it's always a matter of
of of error correction in terms of what
you approach and respond to just in
terms of how you model like Ju Just just
how how knowledge grows it can't be a
matter if we had an algor ithm for
for
flawlessly producing each new increment
of knowledge we would have we would
essentially be able to model you know
the the the the total future of our of
our knowled it would just be it's it's
it's that system would bite its own tail
it's not computationally you know
possible to do that so we're we just
need we need error correction mechanisms
and and so at the grossest possible
level you mentioned someone like like
Tucker Carlson I mean the re the reason
why I I find Tucker's career at this
point so grotesque is that he's managed
to build an
audience that simply doesn't care when
he lies right when he's shown to be
lying I mean there there are different
ways to be uncan one way to be uncan is
to actually have pandered to an audience
in found an audience that wanted to be
pandered to in such a way that they
don't care that you're what you say is
no longer truth tracking no longer even
attempting to be truth tracking this is
a very trumpian phenomenon I mean Trump
is the the quintessence of this he's
found people who don't care if he
contradicts himself over the span of
three minutes right it's like because
he's just creating a mood of grievance
and pandering to the Grievances of his
audience and demonizing the outg group
and it's all theater it's all it's like
it's like professional wrestling nobody
cares that it's fake it's like the fact
that it's fake it's PR is priced in and
they just want spectacle and and so we
have uh even so-called news Gathering
creatures like Tucker who are just
creating a a spectacle and a and some
kind of political theater um and it's
got this very weird gloss of of like
super high integrity I'm just telling
you I you know I've been wrong before
and you know I'm just you know I just
I'm telling you the way I see it but
it's um
I mean in the clearest instance we know
we know from the from his private texts
that were leaked in the Dominion lawsuit
that he hated Trump all the while
couldn't wait for him to get out of our
politics thought he was a demonic force
and yet for years had been Shilling for
him for his his audience right so I me
you can call that audience capture you
can call that hypocrisy and L I mean
it's all those things but the crucial
thing is if I was caught doing that to
to I would lose my 100% of my audience
right and and anyone with a with a you
know a real reputation for
integrity for Their audience would
suffer a similar consequence you know if
but what we have are people who can be
caught lying or can be demonstrated to
be nuts I mean so in many cases someone
like Alex Jones fits that description
and yet there's still this massive
audience that wants there wants to hear
the next thing they they have to say and
that that's you know I don't know what
you call it but it's not a conversation
about reality and yet people are people
are re are using
it in the same uh vein as we use any
other product of Journalism as as though
it's providing some kind of guidance for
what's happening and what's likely to
happen so the the thing I want to hear
um and I guess my Bas assumption in
bringing the two of you on is that ideas
matter they will influence infuence the
individual life and one's ability to get
to human flourishing and every
individual when brought into a
collective means that a society either
can or can't get to human flourishing so
that's my confession about what my North
Star is yeah uh and when I hear people
argue like arguing about hey there's
this crazy trumpan phenomenon or there's
this crazy Tucker Carlson phenomenon is
arguing at the level of the tea to me
this is a conversation about what you
said previously which is the reason that
the truth should matter to you dear
listener is that you will constantly
injure Yourself by and now I'm using my
own words by not being able to predict
the outcome of your actions and so if
you are intaking all of your information
from somebody who is I've heard you
define a bullshitter previously somebody
who just does not care uh whether what
they're saying has any internal
consistency whatsoever it's just about
getting the right response out of Their
audience and if you do that you if you
take on that entertainment because it is
very entertaining if you agree with them
uh you will fail to achieve the things
in your life you want to achieve because
you will have built upon a foundation
that just is not predictive at all uh
and if that really is true re-anchoring
the conversation back to that seems to
me and you guys tell me if I'm being
naive but seems to me the only way out
of the death Loop that is us birthing an
age of pure conspiracy did you guys
watch the um Joe Rogan Terrence Howard
interview I saw a clip of it that that
uh people were hurling at me for it's
yes I hesitate to say it's entertainment
value but it uh it was
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there is absolutely no guarantee of any
kind it is entertaining and so if you
guys are right and there is a
problematic
breakdown uh when people
have lost sight of the fact that perhaps
they're because there's two paths
they're listening to an interview like
that because the establishment has lied
so many times that when somebody says
Hey listen to me I've been shut down
erroneously you need to hear these
things and they're going to help us uh
maybe that really is true or maybe it's
we've now just given up pursuing quote
unquote truth because we have no idea
how to find it nor do we know why we
care about it well may I add a couple of
pieces there first I don't know that
that's true I don't think we've lost
that I think there's a few things going
on first of
all anything that that involves a camera
and a microphone will naturally uh over
prioritize
Charisma so uh one of the things that
happens with any kind of mass
communication is we human this is why
truth matters because actually being
interested in what's true is the only
way I think that we are able to overcome
very faulty heuristics that human beings
have evolved with and I'm not saying
they're faulty for the ancestral
environment 50,000 years ago but they
are faulty in the modern world right and
our our cognitive biases will naturally
lead us away I think from truth because
that is a much harder path in the same
way that the reason it takes discipline
to go to the gym and work out and lose
weight is that it's much easier when
you're surrounded by abundance to just
shove food in your mouth and not do
anything right it's much more comforting
it's much easier to do so I think that
being interested in what's ultimately
true is the way that we can overcome our
inclination to believe things that
charismatic people tell us to believe
things that match what we already
believe to believe I mean that is
essentially to some extent the nature of
the scientific method right is testing
as reality as opposed to going well this
seems right or I believe this or
whatever so I think that ultimately the
reason I'm really interested in it is I
think that it's the only way to overcome
my own
predisposition to believe things about
the world that make me feel good that
are not that are not as you say
predictive and therefore useful um and
unless you operate in the world from
that perspective unless that's what
you're optimizing for your brain is
going to take you off on a loop and now
we live in a world where every whim of
yours is catered to and if your whim is
to be entertained if your whim is to
hear a you know conspiracy and I have to
say I don't know why and I'm actually
really interested in investigating and
finding out I do have I have found that
I think in the US those kind of uh ideas
about how the world is and who runs it
and all of that seem to have a way
broader appeal than they do in the UK
where I live I I don't know why that is
it could be the flip side of the
beautiful American idea that you know
America is a nation of Believers and I
don't mean necessarily religiously I
just mean if you know the idea that you
can tame a continent in a couple of
centuries and create this incredible
country which is the most powerful and
in my opinion the greatest Society in
history of the world that takes that's
an Act of Faith in and of itself uh and
maybe the tradeoff is that you know
Americans are very good at believing
lots of different things and this is one
of them so that's maybe why really being
interested in is what I'm tempted to
believe a accurate reflection of reality
is the antidote to going off the rails
on on that front uh and I think that's
why I am so interested in it it's really
to guard against my own uh cognitive
biases that I think we all have well let
me give you an example of just how
distorted I think our current moment is
because it's I find it surprising so you
take the the um the war in Gaza right
and we're now on the on the the tale of
all these college protests we've had
we've witnessed in our finest
institutions uh apparently an endless
number of people expressing Sympathy for
the Palestinians even sympathy for Hamas
and which is you know just officially a
genocidal death cult I mean described
itself as a genocidal death cult um and
you know they they they seem everything
to my eye morally seems upside down I
mean they can't they can't distinguish
the difference between people who use
human Shields versus people who are
deterred by the use of human Shields
they can't distinguish people who
intentionally burn families alive uh
from people who inadvertently you know
kill innocent people trying to kill the
people who burn families alive
intentionally so there's there's just so
many asymmetries here but um what's
amazing is you have the these protests
on college campuses effectively
silencing
even some of the most powerful people in
our society even just you know
celebrities who You' think you know
would would be totally unconcerned to
express their opinion they're being
silenced they you know they understand
that there's a difference between Hamas
and the and the IDF they won't say
anything in support of Israel because
it's just it's just too toxic in
Hollywood or in in um uh you know in in
among Fortune 500 corporations uh
there's there's there's so worried about
being uh boycotted and and you know and
public backlash especially on social
media um and yet on the other side there
are people signing you know the
celebrities are signing letters in
support of the Palestinians and they're
not at all concerned to be mistaken for
people who support Hamas or or even even
outright anti-semitic um so there's that
asymmetry of public opinion and yet
there was just yesterday a Harvard
Harris poll that revealed that 75% of
americ Americans are all in for Israel
they think Israel should do a just route
out Hamas tomorrow in Rafa right I mean
like everyone's been debating whether
the IDF should go into Rafa and this
this is absolutely tortured debate 75%
of Americans say go into Rafa and kill
Hamas right that's where public
sentiment actually is and yet we have
built a machine right where even the
most power powerful people in our
society are terrified of public of of of
of the 25%
you know they they're they're busily
offending e either by their silence or
by their their support for Hamas
effectively 75% of of America and they
don't even know it because everything is
so distorted the the whole information
landscape is so distorted based on WE
the capture of certain Elite
institutions by some very confused
people on the left and what we've done
on social media I mean everyone's just
looking at x thinking oh my God everyone
supports you know everyone thinks Israel
is guilty of genocide I should keep my
head down here I know I know Israel is
not guilty of genocide uh if the word
means anything but um this is just too
dangerous and yet in terms of the actual
public sentiment of the the people who
could buy the tickets to your next film
it's is completely reversed in in
reality and I think one of the reasons
that is there obviously lots of reasons
but one of the reasons is in the social
media
age the cognitive bias of oh my God I am
seeing horror on my
screen therefore this is wrong right
automatically is very hard to overcome
and it's very difficult to argue against
that when you're seeing look I'm a
father when you see babies being pulled
dead babies being pulled out of rubble
by their parents like there is no
there's no human being alive unless
they're a psychopath that doesn't go oh
my God this is awful
and this should stop immediately right
but does that really reflect the nature
of reality no but we also have a
significant portion of the population
that cannot think past their emotions uh
and yeah but but that notwithstanding
75% of Americans think they should go
inter I think your point is well taken I
wasn't disputing that at all and I think
your point about the fact that there are
different conversations happening in
different places I think is absolutely
right my point is I think one of the
reasons for that is 75% of Americans are
not sitting and looking at their phone
every day for eight hours watching
children being blown apart and whatever
um
so but but but those people who are
interested in in what's going on and are
looking into it they are not able to
think past I have seen one image yeah
dead babies yeah and dead babies are bad
I think we can all say that right I mean
it's
uncontroversial but being confronted
with the nature of war and thinking that
it's horrible I think is a useful thing
in terms of really being reluctant to
get into Wars unless it's absolutely
necessary on the other hand you have to
be able to see past your emotional
visceral reaction in some situations and
say why is this war happening what is
the objective of this war who is
responsible for this baby being pulled
out of rubble who is it is it the people
who are going in to kill terrorists or
is it the terrorists who are using the
baby as a human shield how do you run
that moral math how do you get everyone
to run the same moral math I don't think
you can I don't think every look this
sounds elitist and snobby I don't think
everyone's capable of it and we see
evidence of that every day a lot of
people like to operate solely by emoting
and we now have tools that encourage
them to do so well people can get better
at
consuming video I me we we know we're
bad at this and we should spell out why
people are bad at this so you see a
video of some guy being beaten senseless
by a crowd right and it just it starts
in the middle of the emergency he's
getting you know he's already down and
he's getting punched by and kicked by
five people
um he certainly looks like the victim
right but you have to understand that
you don't know what happened just before
the the clip started right you don't
know so so I've seen video like that
where I assumed okay this guy is this is
an atrocity this
guy's obviously the victim and yet I
find out that this guy just stabed
someone and he's being subdued by a
bunch of unarmed terrified people right
right so it was exactly backwards right
and so we know that even when when
things seem absolutely obvious uh based
on the clip it they could be exactly the
the opposite of what you think and so it
is with scenes from Gaza I mean it's
just I mean this was I remember Rogan at
one point was analyzing I forget who he
was talking to but he had some clip of
you know Five Guys being bombed in in
Gaza as though this were proof of war
crimes I these were obviously unarmed
you know young men and um who were just
walking they seem to be guilty of
nothing other than walking and they got
they got you hit
by you know looked like um a drone or um
it it was not clear but they were you
know killed
uh and yet we have no idea what happened
before that before that clip started
right so we we don't know that whether
they just planted an IED and it was
absolutely obvious that they were
combatants and it was totally valid
within the rules of War to Target them
um you just don't know right so like
that we have
to uh become
better consumers of our own emotional
reactivity in response to to
admittedly disturbing imagery whatever
the the actual accurate interpretation
do you have a method for that well it's
just to to continually price in my
uncertainty about those kinds of
variables you know and but the truth is
my me honestly My Method has been to
spend much less time on social media my
delete I deleted my Twitter account so
now when I look at x i it's just because
someone has driven me there like you
have to see this and then occasionally
I'll look at my feed and and so I have a
a a feed on X that's not following
anyone and on on which I have basically
clicked nothing apart from occasionally
getting sent a video that has brought me
there or or a post that's brought me
there and I am I am amazed at what a
digital sewer it is in terms of what
it's what it is trying I mean the
algorithm seems to just want me to be
terrified of the world and probably
racist in at least two directions right
it want it wants to show me black people
beating up white people and white people
beating up black people you know in
classrooms All Over America like how
much this happens who knows but or
security cam video of just somebody
being horribly murdered for whatever
reason and or just accident it's just
and then you know obviously there's a
you know the occasional cute cat video
but it's just a like we we have built
there there's white cats beating up
black cat
but I me we just we've built a we've
created a psychological experiment and
enrolled everybody yeah and it's like
it's it's it's analogous to watching
local news all the time I mean you know
I learned 30 years ago that or longer
that I didn't want to spend much time
watching local news because it's there's
always just some depressing car chase or
you know somebody was raped it's like I
don't need to know this it's not
actually going to change what I do and
and it's just this
chry regurgitation of human misery and
there's always at least you no matter
how small the locality maybe certainly
in any big city any big city is big
enough to always have some horror that
that that can be broadcast into your
brain about which you're going to do
absolutely nothing and it doesn't make
sense for you to even be cognizant of it
and yet it's there to depress you and
social media has become this on a global
stage and it's just I mean again it's
not that I want people to be oblivious
to what's happening in the world I mean
I do want to know I do I want to have a
map that fits the territory I want to
know what the rates of violent crime
actually are Etc but those
data uh are communicated very
differently and they often don't track
the the imagery that we we all get in
our heads just by looking at a at a
scroll right I mean you you see what
this is what's so distorting about these
videos I mean most most people on the
left certain anyone left of center in
America thinks very likely that we have
an epidemic of lethal police violence
against young black men right if you're
if you you know it's totally rational if
you're you know black parent to have the
talk with your young black son you if he
goes out there he's much more likely to
get killed by the cops than than than
his white friends and this is just you
know an intolerable Legacy of racism in
America
as far as these stats go you know the
best understanding of what of what the
Dynamics of actual police violence and
the thousand people every year
thereabouts who get killed by the cops
we know that's [ __ ] right it's just
not what's happening you you're you're
you're you're the likelihood that you're
going to get killed once once you come
into contact with the cops if you're
black is not higher than if you're white
right um but everyone has seen 12 videos
that makes it makes it seem like they're
these lunatic cops performing lynchings
you know and they haven't seen the
analogous the the analogous and in fact
more numerous cases where white people
have unarmed white people have been
killed by cops you know uh once again
disgracefully um in many cases and but
the actual stats are are just show you
how infrequent it is that an unarmed
person gets of any color gets killed by
the cops in America it's just not
happening very often I mean it's it's
around you know it's
maybe 40 people a year um a majority of
whom are not black and um you know of
the thousand and among even though among
those unarmed people who get killed by
cops most of them are not peacefully you
most of them are trying to kill the cops
they're wrestling with the cops they're
trying to get the gun out of the cops
hands um it's not like the cops are
routinely killing nonviolent people in
America and yet we have a kind of
pornography of racial grievance that is
is continually
advertising the a different story to us
and um again so given the Dynamics of
social
media that is always going to Prevail I
mean that's just like because of the
just the algorithmic incentive to spread
the the outrage other than some The
Pursuit Of Truth which I think the point
you were just making is actually a very
good example of where the genuine
Pursuit Of Truth and context you know in
Russia we there's a Russian saying
everything is understood in comparison
right and what you're talking about is a
very good example of where actually
finding out what the data is not only is
useful but it actually can change your
life especially if you're a young black
man because you are then less likely to
go into that police interaction with the
expectation that you will be killed
which means you're going to act
differently which means that you're
probably less likely to be killed as a
result right knowing that context
knowing that the what the statistics are
is going to inform you to behave in a
different way and this is what I was
going to make I'm actually really
reluctant to get involved in the Gaza
conversation Beyond some basic obvious
things just because I don't know enough
about it um but I think one of the uh
critical things in analyzing this
conversation like many others
is the the importance of History
and that's the context in which we
really human beings operate in the
history of human beings Thomas S who you
know I I pretty much worship at this
point he's written extensively about uh
the idea that the best way to understand
what people are likely to do in the
future is to look at what they've done
in the past and you can slice that a
hundred different ways if if you find
clay tablets from ancient Egypt they're
going to be likely basically discussing
the same things that that human being
discussed now you know my son doesn't
you know a mother complaining about her
son not being round and and all this
other human stuff so when when we
looking at the conflict in Gaza I only
bring it up because we've been talking
about it I've been trying to say to
people well if we are going to talk
about this seriously let's look at
previous situations in which conflicts
of this nature have broken out one for
one reason or another and how has that
happened people give the example of
pugan fujan I think Coleman Hughes
actually did a very good job with Joe
talking about this on his podcast but
beyond that whether it's the the the the
Japan at the end of World War II whether
it's what happened in Germany at the end
of World War II whether it's previous
situations in which uh a group of people
have attacked another people and then
lost that fight how does that normally
go how how how have we treated this in
history that gives you a context that is
very useful for
offsetting
the visceral experience you have when
you're confronted with the reality of
War which is horrific so in that sense
as you know my big concern about the
direction of the West is is that we are
becoming divorced from our history on so
many different ways and we are being
sold a bunch of lies about how we got
here and who we are and that's just one
tiny sliver of that one tiny sliver so
the fact that the overwhelming majority
of people in our societies and I include
to some extent myself on this are either
uneducated or miseducated about history
uh is a lot of the reason we are where
we are because that context gives you
the ability
to uh to be the guy who doesn't get
killed by the cops effectively right
that context that truth is how you know
that you need to act in a particular way
to to get the best possible outcome in
that situation um just why I'm just
always talking about the need to teach
kids history and contextualize this is
one of the things I personally was very
fortunate to get uh from what was
actually a reasonably good Soviet
education system and also my parents you
know all right there's a an idea that's
under the surface of all this that I
think Sam ties back to what you were
talking about that social media deranges
people because you're seeing things that
aren't necessarily true but cognitive
biases like recency bias I've seen a
bunch of these attacks and so my mental
model just begins to map to the things
that I've seen and so this must be true
also Maps what you're talking about
where people are steering by not what
gives them predictive validity of future
action but instead how do I make sense
of the way that I feel and if they're
making sense of oh I see this thing and
I don't like the way that it makes me
feel it must be wrong and here is the
post Hawk explanation of why the baby
being pulled from the rubble is wrong
not putting it into historical context
or context of what war is or anything
like that just I have a feeling this
feeling is not good therefore this is
bad and I need to give some
rationalization all right so you put
that in the social media blender and now
all of a sudden I I don't know which way
is up anymore and I just react to my
feelings the reason I think this
question is so important is when people
don't have a method by which they
determine the truth which is uh about
predictive validity you will not end up
running the same mathematics so
everyone needs to agree on what the
outcome is that we desire and then they
have to run the scientific method that
that to me is the only way that these
deranging problems of our current uh
moment of social media plus we haven't
even talked about AI but those two
things put together I think are going to
be maximum uh in terms of their impact
on derangement because it it gives
everybody an N of one frame of reference
and there have been a couple times where
you guys have said things that I have
seen the public light you both up for
because they just disagree so violently
and really what would be an example with
me um yeah God I may I may not have
noticed it because I really don't give a
[ __ ] but yeah so uh you were saying
something about the Israel Palestine
conflict and the reason that people
think that it's bad that war is bad and
that this has to stop but I think the
reality is there's actually two things
going on the moment you bring up Israel
Palestine if you're talking about
anything other than the following two
narratives you're not talking about the
reality of why why people respond the
way they respond number one is the norm
felstein stance which nobody just uh
addresses him headon he does not believe
Israel should exist as a state period
end of story every word he says after
that is predicated on Israel should not
exist as a state and if you're
approaching him anyway and people that
believe what he believes without simply
debating whether Israel has a right to
exist you're arguing about the Tea he's
never going to agree with you he's just
going to start yelling and shouting
because he has to square
of phds that we not invite to the
conference we actually just we actually
just had him on and we had a hour and a
half of look uh actually very useful uh
I think it's very useful this is why I I
we will continue to have some of these
people on the show because if these are
people to whom a lot of other people are
listening you have to hear what they
have to say but but that's that's a
self-reinforcing sorry let me just
finish the point you have to a hear what
they have to say and then see the method
that people have increasingly become
addicted to is the idea that the way to
get to the truth is to quot and quote
destroy someone with facts and logic in
a debate I believe quite often uh and
this is what we try to do on the show uh
the the way to do that is to have a
conversation and just go okay let's
let's hear what you have to say and
let's ask you some probing questions and
then people can see for themselves the
cognitive flaws in and biases and what
you're saying for example in our
conversation with him and Bassam YF who
are two of the big uh anti-israel Pro
Palestine uh Talking Heads uh it became
very clear that neither of them had ever
thought about how this might be
resolved that's a useful piece of
information to know when you're
listening to these people right uh
another thing you know with Norman for
example we spent the first 20 minutes
hearing his family story and he talked
about how you know his parents were
stalinists and he thought that was a bit
extreme so he's just a maoist you know
that's a helpful piece of information
wait was he being serious yeah that
wasn't tongue and cheek he's a maist
yeah okay I would love to ask followup
question that do do you do do I need to
then have a debate with Norman fleein to
destroy the idea of maoism or is it
sufficient for most people to go okay
that's the perspective from which she's
coming I would like to answer that
question directly so I uh you guys both
have the right to live your life however
you want according to my value system
and so I want you to thrive in ways as
you define it but I think it is
incredibly important that people that
have the ability to parse through things
not based on emotion but based on
predictive validity towards an agreed
upon outcome that is noble and honorable
and therefore this was something you um
brought up earlier and I wanted to
address which is I would request of
people that are like the two of you that
you address any problem that gains suff
ient momentum in culture and so it can't
be derived based on I think this person
is a good faith actor it just can't it
has to be derived around but this idea
is gaining sufficient cultural momentum
and therefore if I choose to step into
that that into the arena of helping
people make sense of the world I'm going
to address these ideas obviously that's
an ask that I have no right to make of
anybody but that's what I want from
people that I see as uniquely capable
now I have a frame of reference where I
look at human beings as flesh- based Ai
and I just want to point the Constantin
flesh based AI at a given problem and
see how he addresses it I want to point
the Sam flesh based AI at a given
problem and see how he handles it now
that's brought a ton of pain and
suffering into both of your lives I get
that I don't know why you keep saying
that it honestly yours Sam's it
certainly suffering on his
podcast so and also there there's a more
deranging thing and that thing is uh Sam
I have watched people on the left and
right come up with really contrite ways
to discredit you and so there are people
that um now just mify like one side is
just you're just obviously a racist you
don't like brown people and so the
they're never going to debate you on the
point of
jihadism they're just like he hates
brown people boom done you don't have to
listen to Sam he's totally [ __ ]
deranged and then on the other side it's
Trump derangements syr Co broken and
they don't have to listen to you and
those memes have gained so much momentum
that now it's a pretty small group of
people