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Language: en
by the end of this year the national
debt will be 2 trillion per year in 3 to
four years the government will pay more
in interest than they collect in taxes
so uh we're already uh bigger than
National Defense in terms of what we pay
here in the US just servicing the debt
um how if it goes for another 20 years
somebody with my mentality is is just
going to get slapped around the board
because I'm acting like it's going to
happen soon um but is it like how do we
how do we make sense of these numbers is
is there a nothing Burger way out of
this or is this a guaranteed Slaughter
and we just don't know when you are
being slaughtered and you don't realize
it it all happened already it is
underway and everybody's waiting for
that all the assets are down
90% it can't happen it simply can't
happen because it all happened in 2008
in 2008
the world
stopped the whole debt system blew up we
had to have a debt Jubilee of resetting
all government debts around the world at
zero so we could afford to service
it we've kept rates low we've been then
using the balance sheet of all of the
central banks just to pay the interest
on the debt from the previous Cycles
this is this everything code thesis that
you and I have talked
about so we are paying
the debts by printing money pure
debasement the system broke in 2008 we
then changed the financial system with
the Basel 3 agreements which forced the
banks to lend less and to hold more
treasuries why there's going to be a lot
of supply of
treasuries the whole system everybody's
aware that it's broken it broke so what
is going on now well for it to actually
broke the down 90% it's all going to be
1929 again can't you just see it you're
missing the point they're debasing the
currency by 15% a year it adds up to a
staggering loss of
wealth it is in a tax That You Don't See
15% a year debasement is easier than
increasing your tax rate 15% which is
politically unacceptable which is what
they need to do to pay the debt
because the printing of money just
abases the currency so you are paying it
we are all paying it what what they
should do is default on the debt that is
the best thing to do because can't they
can't Peter I I agree the Austrian thing
the Austrian thing is what they should
have done it it it was too late and the
reason being look they're not going to
they're not going to they're not going
to do the right thing well they can't
because bab maybe Malay will do the
right thing in Argentina at this point
we'll see yeah but they see the
difference of the structure of the
western Society is all the money is held
by old people the entire system is
basically in the hands of retirees and
all the wealth so if you say all of
their assets are down
75% that is the wealth of the nation's
gone so nobody's going well it's not all
their assets but yeah they're they're
going to their debt but they're going to
lose it through inflation either way
it's either default or or or de way but
you know I wanted to point out you you
talk about the national debt you know
official national debt is 2 trillion but
the actual national debt the budget
deficit they claim is 2 trillion but the
national debt is already growing at four
trillion a year that's we're that's how
that's the rate that it's growing
already and during the next official
recession it's going to be on an even
greater trajectory so the issue is why
we all agree
right but I just don't think it can
collapse why because of debasement but
that is collapse that's a collapse of
the monetary system that's and it could
lead to hyperinflation yeah let let me
just play out my thesis here which is I
don't disagree you can't have assets
going down 90% you know the core
collateral of the system if they're
debating the currency because they go up
optically because the currency is going
down the Venezuelan stock market goes up
in bolar terms and down in dollar terms
right so therefore if your collateral
keeps going up
which is what they learned in 2008 is we
can back stop the entire thing by
debating the currency quickly the
collateral goes up and hey presso my
debts aren't so bad okay magic it's not
magic as you know it's a slight of hand
it's not pure magic what they're doing
is robbing you in a different way okay
this has happened before this is exactly
what happened in the 1940s and 50s
saddled with massive debts after World
War II the large economies did the same
thing Financial repression that yield
curve control which is buying of
government bonds keeping interest rates
low which we've
seen and they just printed money and
over time the value of the debt had
eroded and what they'd managed to do was
create a productivity Miracle which
drove GDP growth one one thing you're
you're you're overlooking though a key
difference back then so after the second
world war and the government ran up a
lot of debt uh during the War uh but
they did it they paid for a lot of the
war with tax hikes they had tremendous
tax hikes uh particularly the income tax
which tripled uh when the war started in
fact they introduced a withholding tax
in 1942 as a victory tax so before the
second world war hardly anybody paid
income taxes by the end of the second
world war a lot of people were paying
income taxes and when the war ended the
government had all of this income tax
revenue coming in and they initi
initially it was temporary to win the
war but when they stopped the war they
didn't stop the income tax and so the
government was flushed with cash and so
it paid down a lot of that debt debt
collapsed in the years because the
government ran huge surpluses and paid
down a lot of that debt so it wasn't all
just inflated away yeah when the 1960s
and70s rolled around there was a lot of
inflation but the initial big drop in
debt was an honest repayment because we
stopped spending money on the war the
problem now is we haven't cut any
spending we're taxing people to the hilt
right now and we don't have the type of
economy we had a real industrial economy
in the 1940s we had we had wealthy
consumers that that loan money to the
government that bought the the war bonds
uh we sold the war bonds to China you
know Americans are broke so we're a
levered up country running huge trade
deficits uh you know we're we're we're
and we we have no means of repaying the
debt like we did in 1946 so
the the debt is now going to go straight
up it's not going to go down like it did
uh during those decades we we're just go
we're it's getting started it's 125% of
GDP it's going to go to 150 200% 300% it
can't stop until everything implodes I
don't
disagree I'm so I'm wildly crazily
bullish because I'm so
bearish bullish on what assets because
they're going inom terms in nominal
terms correct but in Gold terms a lot of
these assets have to come down the real
price has to come down so you know I
also believe that GDP growth equals
productivity plus population plus debt
growth I think debt growth died in 2008
and all debt growth now servicing of old
debts and population has been shrinking
so economies have been slow and
productivity is low because of Aging
populations we're just bringing AI and
robots into the workforce it's infinite
human infinite humans so we GDP growth
driven by productivity and population
growth is what I think is on the horizon
which is what rescues this rescues this
but after what 15% a year debasement of
currency you know you add 10 years of
that and you've lost most of your money
so none of us disagree we're all getting
[ __ ] but it's how are you going to get
[ __ ] are you going to get [ __ ] in
one go CU it Burns to the ground or they
going to [ __ ] you so you don't really
know you're being screwed but you're
just going to get angrier and angrier
that's what we're seeing politics has
gone like this because everybody's so
bloody angry because they can't figure
out who's screwing them and they're
blaming each
other what Screwed them is there was too
many old people and they borrowed too
much
money what I want to understand is the
timeline on all of this because it seems
like the debt is going to ratchet up so
fast
uh and if we're only going to be able to
print our way out of it I get at first
maybe for the next three maybe five
years um I don't notice that I'm being
screwed over
but unless you guys tell me that the
amount that we can print before we break
the camels back is 180 trillion or just
some unbelievable number that is so far
from where we are today this feels like
if we're really in a race for do do I
get to that number of trillions of
dollar
before the robots come and increase
productivity so much that I'm back to a
1946 place where I'm generating so much
productivity I can actually pay the debt
down I'm sure Peter won't agree with
this and you will half agree with it and
half hate it and that's
okay if I'm right that AI plus robots is
infinite productive
units and you see how fast it's coming
you literally are not capable of
understanding what an economy looks like
Beyond 2013
that's the problem I've got here I'm not
concerned about the Cliff of death right
that we're going through I found an
asset that I can invest in crypto or I
could buy technology and it's offsetting
the mess of the debasement so I'm
fine what's harder is to say what the
hell does an economy mean after 2030
when you've got endless Ai and robots
and AGI what is a
company what value do you provide in
that world or I provide we sit there
talking to people about it and thinking
our way through it but both you and I
are developing AI tools of which we will
have a digital Tom and a digital R and
we don't even need to turn up to these
and they'll do a pretty good job we're
both working on these things right but
are we going to be just repl the point
being is when you go to like Nick
Bostrom who who is the the key thinker
about this at Oxford University un who
wrote the book I can't remember the
famous book about the whole kind of
where the future's going there's a group
there an economics group there who share
the same concerns as me as like if this
is right you could double GDP in a year
Global GDP or a
weak what what what do companies mean
when AI I have a theory that open AI is
using AGI to build its own AI
which is why they're iterating so fast
with what 500 people it's [ __ ]
Madness what they're doing how how fast
they're iterating I've never seen
anything like it even Elon Musk is like
I've never seen anything like what's
going on here the more we have ai to to
build AI to build businesses the faster
and faster this
goes so in answer your question the
explosion could be the other way
around it could not it might not be the
economy imploding it could be the
economy exploding in a way that we don't
even know how to deal with it what do
humans mean what is our jobs you know
all of this stuff you and I have talked
about I actually worry about very
different things I don't worry about the
economy going down the toilet because I
know how they're dealing with that
they've kind of set the rule book I can
make money from that that's okay it's
this other bit that's the hard bit
that's more scary what do you give the
odds Peter one do you think that he's
onto something or does that seem just
completely completely sci-fi to you well
um I mean I think there's no question
that over
time um artificial intelligence robotics
is going to lead to a dramatic increase
in human productivity I mean that's just
what capitalism does and this is a I
think a potentially game-changing
Innovation the question is how long is
it going to take to build out and scale
up and you know uh and how are
politicians going to react uh to the
creative destruction which always comes
from uh Innovation uh there's always
somebody that loses uh but net net
Society gains and eventually you know
over time everybody gains because we we
don't want jobs I mean we want stuff I
mean that that that is the the the the
secret of of an economy it's a scarcity
of things uh we all desire uh certain
things and the constraint is the ability
to supply them and and Supply is
constrained by land by labor by Capital
uh but uh Ai and Robotics has the
potential to dramatically increase uh
the supply of labor uh intellectual you
know thinking and and processing and so
at the end of the day we could produce a
lot more with a lot less and we'd all be
wealthier I mean you know again means
work is a means to an ends you don't
want your job you want the things that
you could buy with the paycheck that you
earned if you could skip the job and go
right to the stuff most people would do
it right most people don't work because
they like to work they'd rather not work
they just like what they could buy uh
with with with the paycheck so I mean I
I I think that all of this could be good
and you know certainly a lot of
potential you know I'm 61 years old I'd
like to think that this AI could figure
out how to do something about that so so
I could I could I could be younger and
live longer and so that's another game
Cher I mean what if our life expectancy
is dramatically extended too right I
mean maybe maybe we don't live to 100
maybe we live to 150 I don't know 200
who the hell knows you know um but yeah
there's a lot of things that could
happen that I would be looking forward
to I'm not you know apprehensive about
these
things um
but I also don't think that it's
necessarily it could be but I don't
think it's necessarily A get out of jail
free card uh for the sins of the past uh
that we're not going to have have to
deal with the debt well you probably all
agree Peter that we are dealing with it
now right we're all we're all get having
the effects of this put upon us already
well we're we're feeling it and I I I've
been saying for a while that's why Biden
is so unpopular it's not because of his
mental gaffs it's because the economy
sucks and the voters know this and
they're blaming Biden because he's at
you know at the Helm of the ship that's
sinking and and so despite all the hype
and all the statistics the average
American family is feeling the inflation
tax in a big way and and and yes there's
a lot of jobs but there's second jobs
and third jobs that people would rather
not have they're struggling to make ends
meet and they hate having to take on
these extra jobs and and this is going
to get worse I think the inflation Genie
is out of the bottle uh it never was
really gone it's just that the
government was able to cover up
inflation uh with a you know by cooking
the books but the inflation is now so
pernicious and the and the impact on
prices is so great that even when you
whitewash it you know with the CPI it it
can't hide it anymore because the
numbers are so big the costs are rising
so rapidly people can see it and there's
a limit to how small they can make the
packages at some point they can't keep
shrinking stuff they got to raise prices
and make it even more obvious uh but and
it's not just America it's happening in
Europe it's happened in Japan I mean all
these countries that said for years the
problem is we don't have enough
inflation we need to create more they
now have too much inflation and and they
can't stop it because stopping it would
require politically unexpectable things
they have to cut government spending you
know they have to default on a bunch of
promises they have to deliver a lot of
bad news to the voters and nobody wants
to do that and so everybody is just
going to continue and they think oh
we've gotten away with it before we did
qe1 we did QE2 we did qe3 we did covid
so we could do it again right look every
time we get into trouble we just print
money and we're out of trouble well all
that is is inflation and so if your
problem uh is uh uh uh deflation or
collapse of assets or whatever and you
think you can solve the problem by
creating
inflation the problem is when inflation
is the problem when that's the source of
everybody's misery you can't solve the
inflation Problem by creating more
inflation because that's been the
solution to every problem we've had is
let's create inflation that's our
solution we can call it quantitative
easing easy money but what we're really
doing is we're solving the problem by
papering it over with inflation well now
we're at the point where inflation is
the problem so more inflation just makes
it worse so it's you know we're past the
point of no return uh and it's just a
question of yeah you know when when do
we look down and realize we're standing
on nothing and I think that applies to
bitcoin too you know you look down and
you realize there's nothing there you
know there's a lot of uh false
perceptions that are going to uh meet
reality uh in the near future just as a
side note what happens Peter if all of
these value assets that are GNA catch up
eventually and haven't done for the last
20 years don't what happens if gold
continues to underperform what happens
if your model of the world is out moded
I'm not saying it is but could you
possibly consider that not everybody's
wrong it's just the way that you assume
that everybody's wrong I just find that
a little bit I'm not saying everybody is
wrong I'm saying the people that believe
in Bitcoin are wrong but that's
certainly not everybody and the Market's
wrong and the technology price is wrong
and that that your source of truth is
the truth and the market pricing is not
the
truth markets markets get it wrong a lot
you know in the short run it's a voting
machine in the long run it's a weighing
machine and right now I think people are
are making bad bad votes you know uh and
and and so you know I just think it's a
Mania I mean you know every time there's
a Mania right it means assets are
mispriced I mean we've had plenty of
Bubbles and they pop and and that's that
um I just think that that that this is
this is another one so you know I I I
think the the onus is on the people who
believe in it to try to say why this you
know this is different of course you
know that's the famous words of every
bubble This Time It's Different uh I
don't think it is I think this time it's
the same I mean you know and and and and
and so I think that the same thing is
going to happen but as far as why you're
saying why is gold not gone up look in
the scheme of things when people look at
a long-term chart of gold the fact that
it's gone sideways for 10 years is is is
immaterial to the you know the thousands
of years that gold has been around and
gold has been a store of value but
that's over the period of the worst
debasement that we've seen in the last
100 years and gold didn't do it right so
let's say gold all of a sudden has a
year or two where it catches up and it
goes from 1,000 to 5 or 10,000 right so
it it doesn't necessarily have to go
there in a straight line gold could go
up go sideways go up you know and so
yeah over a longer period of time it's
going to smooth its way out now the
question is why did gold not go up
higher sooner well remember it went from
300 to almost 2,000 it had a very big
move uh in a in a real relatively short
historical period of time and and so
then it went sideways for a decade and
the reason I believe is because
investors have complete confidence in
central banks they don't believe that
there's a a threat of of inflation out
there or a debt bubble uh and and so
they don't see the reason to buy gold
they would rather buy tech stocks um and
and so I I I I think it's just people
have a
misconception just like you know you
mentioned the subprime and I remember
you know when I was when I first found
out about these subprime mortgages a guy
showed up at my office named Andy Lotti
probably in 2005 or six and you know I
was already bearish on the housing
market and he came to me with an idea to
set up a hedge fund to short these these
subprime uh mortgages this trunch and he
explained it to me and I was like well
why the hell would anybody buy these
These are obviously going to go to zero
I mean how can people be bu them and
they were trading above par they were
they were actually paying more than than
par to buy these tranches that I knew
were going to zero and I was like well
you know people just believed in this
you know and so the assets were
mispriced and they were mispriced for a
few years until they eventually were
priced correctly at zero but but I knew
that they were worth zero the minute
they were explained to me but you know
and what the guy told me is he had gone
to a lot of uh you institutions with the
same story and everybody laughed at him
I was like the first guy that didn't
laugh at him because I knew that real
estate prices were going to go down
everybody else thought real estate
prices could never fall and so as long
as real estate prices never fell well
then it didn't matter if anything
defaulted right I was a guy that knew
that eventually real estate prices would
come down uh and and so you can have a
period of time where a lot of smart
people can believe something that's
wrong and so assets could be mispriced
as a result of that shared delusion and
I believe that's the situation with with
Bitcoin and what happened to me was
actually the opposite cuz I was the
macro bear that everything reverts to
the mean that it was all terrible and it
is all
terrible and I realized I had the wrong
mental
model and the moment I actually freed
myself of my own biases and tried to
understand what the [ __ ] was going on
and why were these assets going
up why why was this happening
I then could see what was going on and
what the big game was and as soon as I
could see that it became a game I could
make money from and that I didn't have
to be stuck wishing and I've seen a lot
of friends of mine do this wishing that
value stocks or small Caps or whatever
it is are going to work for them and
it's been 20 years now and I've realized
I had the wrong mental model and the
moment I changed it I feel felt
liberated cuz the World kind of makes
sense and I just urge all of
us to just make
sure that we don't get obsessed by our
own mental models because they will
change and the world changes and
sometimes we can be dead wrong and
sometimes we can be dead right I mean I
nailed the financial crisis I nailed the
European Sovereign crisis I nailed Co I
nailed all of these things by being a
big bear and something I suddenly
realized is yeah but assets kept going
up that whole period I should have just
been long and have made more money and
that made me ask the question of Myself
by the dip by the dip that ask the
question is like that dumb meme of by
the dip I wanted to go all the way
across the bell curve go to the middle
bit arguing it all come to the other
side and realize that by the dip was
actually the single best strategy to
have ever existed over this period of
financial mess and I was stupid for not
seeing it so anyway I'm just saying be
careful cuz Tom I can see that you're so
allured by the black hole the black hole
that is there you it kind of comes to
you and we have this conversation I try
and pull you back from the black hole
and say yeah it's there but there's an
opportunity here and you're like but the
black hole just be careful of the mental
model because it will massively restrict
you in what you do even how you think
about life and how you interact with
people around you so so it's something
I've learned the hard way is we've all
got to be a little more open to a
everyone's
opinions and be our own biases and how
ingrained they
are and have they become part of our
personality just because it
is or it's part of the how we fear like
some people fear risk so they become a
certain way and present that to the
world around them or somebody some
people have made money and then they've
worried about losing it because their
family didn't come from money we're all
set of our own human ridiculous biases
so just we should just all in all of
these conversations just step back a
little bit you're looking at it from the
vantage point of where we are everything
is at record highs and so it looks like
yes that was the right thing to do to to
buy the dip but we haven't had the
crisis yet that's the thing we we've
been able to Kick the Can down the road
and all of these structural problems
have been growing the entire time uh
that we've been ignoring them and and
the question is you know how many more
times can this work um because there we
get I mean I think you gota you got to
watch the bond market you got to watch
the gold market the Foreign Exchange
Market but at some point it's going to
crack Tom did this Tom did this earlier
and it was a very good question is what
would make you think the
opposite and we all need to be able to
do
that because you we can't keep saying
well asset price have gone up so
therefore you don't know whether you
were right or wrong it's like and it's
this is no attack on you or anything
it's me thinking through this stuff is
how do you
know that maybe you have done yourself a
disservice or I've done myself a
disservice or Tom is doing himself a
disservice by thinking the way that we
do have we held ourselves back have we
lost an opportunity cost that we didn't
imagine because we're so Anchored In
what we think we think or we project to
other people I'm just that's all I'm
trying to get across is not about who's
right who's wrong I'm saying at a human
level what happens if you had bought
Bitcoin and bought the NASDAQ and were
10 times richer than you are today would
you care about some of the things you
think about now maybe not Tom if you
hadn't made money when you were young
and then fear losing it maybe you
wouldn't be worried about the black
hole maybe you'd be more risk seeking
maybe it you know
just think about it in a bigger context
than fighting over what price and asset
is we need to ask ourselves why we think
that I think that's really interesting
yeah the point is as long as the
underlying problems continue to get
worse I don't I don't think I'm wrong
so if we actually find a way to solve
these problems you know if if uh you
know we get dramatic Cuts in in
government spending if we start paying
down the debt if we get enough
deregulation but Peter sorry I just want
to ask you a question what is the end
the worst case scenario game what is the
thing that you fear that we are well the
worst case scenario is we destroy the
currency completely right and so the
dollar has no okay let's assume that
happens right let's say we do that which
we've been doing but slower but let's
say it completely goes it hasn't got
there's a lot there there's a long way
to go between where we are now and zero
okay so let's assume it goes to zero I'm
long crypto and technology stocks you're
long gold they all go up we're fine
what's the [ __ ]
problem well first of all there's a big
problem because a lot of people first of
all you maybe crypto goes up maybe it
goes down who that you know there's no
way to know but but explain to me what
I'm fearing here myself when the dollar
because you're wiping out the savings of
a generation you're wiping out the
retirement of of tbt people I thought
they were in debt you told me they're
ring debt so we're wiping yes you're
wiping out debt but every time you wipe
out one person's debt you wipe out
somebody else's asset okay you wipe out
the value of people's P their insurance
you said earlier that you wanted the big
reset
that we should do this and when the
money is worthless you can't buy things
with it the farmer doesn't want to give
up his food because you have nothing of
value that he that he wants America
can't import anymore because nobody
wants our dollars I mean if if we go
through hyperinflation I mean it's going
to be riots there's going to be I mean
it's I mean it's going to be bad it's
not like something that I'm looking
forward to I understand but you've got
your gold and your real estate and
you'll be fine and I've got my stuff so
what do you fearing what is the fear
look and the other thing is the
government can become even more
oppressive than it is now and that the
worst case is they blame it all on
capitalism and the solution is that we
become a complete totalitarian state and
the government takes over everything I
mean so there's the you ask me what's
the worst thing that could possibly
happen right what is it you fear you you
so you're now fearing a totalitarian
state where they seize all your assets I
mean okay well what good is investing in
gold and what good is doing anything uh
I don't know I guess if they if they if
they throw me in jail or kill me I guess
it's not going to matter but I don't
know what they're going to do Tom what
is it that you fear Tom what is the fear
what is that black hole Yeah so as
somebody who is very practiced in
staring into this I'll I'll walk you
through so um because I feel confident I
will make it to the other side sort of
come Heller high water when Co kicked
off I realized I was afraid for for uh
people that I know and love that don't
understand money and that that began my
journey of actually understanding what's
going on so like Peter I share exactly
his concern um and I'm a little unclear
on um the only thing that makes sense
for me for you to push on this is if you
think it's basically impossible for it
to happen because to me it is self
evidently horrific to go through
something where um it's either a War an
external war or an internal War because
like Peter is saying there's just so
much anger and resentment at the
implosion of the debt which to Peter's
point is somebody's um asset that now
just went away people won't do that
quietly they will Riot also when you get
to the point where you can't feed your
populace because there's no money uh and
your money's hyperinflated and people
walking around with wheelbarrows full of
money to try to buy a loaf of bread um
that suddenly the line of Good and Evil
that Soldier nson talks about in the
gulg archipelago you realize it really
does run through every human heart and
all of a sudden all those narratives and
mythology that you're talking about that
hold us together as a society all of
those crumble and I'm sure all three of
us are students of history but when you
become a student of History you realize
that the long Arc that bends towards
Justice is punctuated with moments of
such horrible cruelty death and
destruction that you just pray a sweet
baby Jesus you are not one of the people
that are around for one of those moments
of Correction and they they happen and
they happen so predictably that the
black hole I'm staring into again I
don't feel like I'm staring into it for
myself I've and I mean this is a glimpse
into my soul I've told the employees
here if it ever kicks off come to the
house first of all we have The High
Ground we are up on a hill uh I care
about them allall and so so I want to
see them Thrive we will do better as a
part of a collective but the fact that I
even have to say that out loud uh is is
unnerving now I bend towards optimism so
I actually think nothing is ever as good
or bad as you think it's going to be and
so I believe there is sort of this
stumbly slow erosion of the dollar path
that will end up looking something like
what happened to England now Peter when
you and I last spoke you pointed out
very rightly that World War I and World
War II were some pretty bad things and
so since that was part of how they end
up losing their empire and status as a
reserve currency I I concede the point
that that that is absolutely horrific so
I just know every Empire of all time has
crumbled and I really do think a lot
about how America becomes the next Rome
but the reason that becomes a meme and
the reason that people think it's
ridiculous is because the odds of it
happening in the next few years border
on zero the odds of it happening in the
next 10 years go up a little bit Rayo
puts um America being in a world war at
50% over the next 10 years but like
maybe it happens in the next 20 and so
if it's true that it doesn't happen for
10 or 20 years me or Peter and Peter I
think you know you have this reputation
and I have a feeling I'm rapidly gaining
it as well is like I've predicted 10 of
the last two recessions right so I'm so
focused on uh the Confluence of things
that go back
that I end up potentially missing the
all the opportunities that are present
that's what I was trying to get in and
I'm not saying you're right or wrong
right I'm just saying we should think
about these things there's another bias
that I want you to think
about is ask your wife if she shares the
same views and her friends do because
she's
British and she won't it's a quite a
uniquely American thing doomsday
prepping the fear of the decline of
Empire and the collapse of
society is weirdly an American thing
even though the Europeans have gone
through it twice two world wars where we
killed everybody each other in the most
horrific ways
possible Europeans don't think of the
same way of the collapse of civilization
that Americans do it's just a really
weird cultural phenomena um and it's
because it's the largest most powerful
economy and it's saddled with debt and
everything else so just again just
there's biases in everything that we do
that make
us as as you said rightly
Tom we some we project too far either
way and it can still be pretty horrible
in the middle it can still be a terrible
political environment there still could
be riots there still could be kinetic
Wars but it may not have to be the end
game yeah remember the the other thing
that's uniquely American is the degree
to which we depend on the dollar status
as Reserve currency to run trillion
dollar year trade deficits so you know
we need to be supplied goods from abroad
and if we lose those Supply chains uh we
have no ability to to replace them so
it's it's it it we it could be you know
a m a major collapse but the other we
sell the best that what we did though
what the US did was really
clever is it created a dollar deta
system where the rest of the world owes
so many dollars that they can't get rid
of the dollar it's like what we exported
what the Americans exported was
debt oh and inflation debt and inflation
but you know um yeah I mean you know
there are people that think that but you
know I I I I don't think that the dollar
is impervious because we have so much of
them and have have so much debt but the
point I wanted to make about recessions
is one of the problems with forecasting
recessions is the government gets to
Define them and the government comes out
with the GDP numbers
and like I think we're in a recession
now I think we've been in one for a
while but the government just doesn't
acknowledge it because of the way they
keep score I don't think the deflator is
honest I think GDP is going up because
of prices I don't think it's going up
because the wealth of the economy is
expanding we're just paying higher
prices for things and we're borrowing a
lot of money to do it the debt is
growing faster faster than the GDP
numbers so all this is an illusion we're
not growing anything we're we're
spending ourselves into bankruptcy we're
buying products uh a lot of those
products are are are imported and we're
paying higher and higher prices so you
we we could have been in a Perpetual
depression uh for years and years and
years I think we kind of just that the
way that we keep track of it you know we
don't officially acknowledge it I think
look when you're debasing the currency
in people's savings by 15% a year over
time everybody's going to feel like
they're not getting ahead everybody feel
feels this right and you're right
somewhere hidden within all of
this has been an ongoing depression from
2008 for the average
person not for a tech company not for
certain parts of society but most people
have been in a miserable mess for a long
time their wages haven't gone up their
costs have gone up it's been terrible
and they're they're like choked with
debt they can't pay their kids to go to
university they can't
afford retirement
savings yeah I agree that's it's been
bad for a long time if you like that
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