"What's Coming Is Worse Than A Market Crash" - Migrant Crisis Invasion & Civil War | Bret Weinstein
G9B1JJaFfYk • 2024-08-30
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Kind: captions Language: en talk to me about what's going on at the border that is uh that one's out of left field it's pretty wild it's pretty wild and the fact that it is simultaneously an undeniable fact I mean you could go visit it right and you could see it and it's a it's a mystery why would anybody allow this to happen it it violates all sorts of things that we all thought were Beyond even needing to be discussed right and they has to control its borders that's part of anyway you asked what's taking place you want me just to describe what I saw so um my son and I Zach went uh to Panama and we traveled to the province of Darion to the edge of the Darion Gap actually we went into the Darion Gap um but we traveled by car to the edge of it uh the Darian Gap is a broken it's a section of the Pan-American Highway that has never been built the Pan-American Highway runs from prudo Bay Alaska to the southern tip of South America whoa you can drive the whole way except for the 60-mile stretch at the border between Colombia and Panama um what is there is a Wilderness um there's a national park and it is a extremely a famously difficult stretch of land to cross there are currently thousands of people thousands a day being beckoned across the Darian Gap largely by the International Community which is facilitating this massive migration MH um some of the people who are migrating are South Americans there's a lot of people from Venezuela fleeing uh economic collapse there um but there are a lot of people coming from around the world they fly fly into keto Ecuador the reason they fly into Ecuador is that there's no Visa requirement so they can land in Ecuador without a Visa they can move Overland uh into Colombia and they can cross the Daran Gap into Panama so what we saw was on the Panama side we saw what I came to understand as two distinct phenomena there's one massive migration lots of South Americans lots of people from elsewhere in the world from the Middle East uh Yemen um people from Haiti uh the they are housed in encampments that are um built in settlements that exist in Darian already so people are walking out of the Jungle they are walking into these little towns that exist on the edge of the Jungle these towns have had refugee camps built up by the International Community so the panamanians aren't happy to have this massive migration moving through uh their habitat but they have no control over it how's that possible well the Panamanian border is supposed to be controlled by the ca front which is the Panamanian border Authority it's a is it a separate entity yeah it's a military police entity that is charged with uh controlling the frontier and they don't answer to the penam government no they do oh they absolutely do they're part of the Panamanian government got it so then Panama could stop this well see this is the thing we as little people don't understand international relations could Panama technically stop it yes they could technically stop it but what would happen to Panama if they did presumably explains why they don't so the panamanians are not in a position to override what ever it is that wants this migration to happen how much of Panama's stance is public or and how are you inferring um that is a good question let us put it this way the discussion of the migration is not nearly as uh substantial as you would expect and in large measure what is happening is the migrants are being shunted North as quickly as possible that from Panama's perspective the best thing to do is to get these people on their way where they don't become a burden to Panama and so they are being they are being shuttled through Panama into Costa Rica and through all of the countries up into North America all of the Central American countries are participating in facilitating this migration for reasons that are not clear um but I said that I come to understand this two separate phenomena one of them is this migration of people who when you talk to them and we found many migrants were forthcoming about both the trials that they had suffered in the jungle uh which are terrifying almost all of them had been robbed uh young women were uh routinely raped um people walk out of the Jungle without their children children walk out of the Jungle without their parents it's humanitarian disaster yeah the Darian Gap is um a very difficult piece of habitat to Traverse if you know what you're doing these people do not they've been induced to try to cross uh the Gap with no understanding of how to equip themselves or what they're actually going to face there and uh you know it's the kind of habitat where you can slide hide down a muddy Hill and break your leg and that can kill you because it prevents you from getting out um so it it takes accidents and greatly enhances their lethality um but you've got this migration all of the migrants who will speak to us are economic migrants they're all very clear about this which means they're not eligible for political asylum in the US though that is uh the basis on which they are crossing our Southern border but there's another migration which is housed separately which I found very surprising um it is a migration that is almost entirely Chinese is predominantly young men whether the fact that they are of military age is Meaningful or not is impossible to say but what I can say is that unlike all of the other migrants that we encountered who were surprisingly open about talking about what they were doing and where they were headed and what had motivated them to go the Chinese migrants who were housed separately by the panamanians they're housed in places that are not towns interestingly they're housed there's a camp called s Vicente which secretary my orcus visited when he was in Panama right before it was expanded greatly um but the Chinese who are moving through the San vente Camp are unwilling to talk they give off a hostile air and it's not clear to me why this should be the case if they were for example fleeing oppression at the hands of the Chinese Communist party you would expect them to be at least curious about citizens of this country that they were apparently going to start a new life in that would be a natural thing and even if they were afraid to talk because they were afraid of what might happen uh if word got back you would not get a hostile sense you would get a sense that they were uh conflicted or trapped and couldn't couldn't talk but that was not at all the impression they left the impression they left was one of hostility and mockery and it was decidedly disturbing so I began to think of this as an invasion moving in parallel and being cloaked by a migration the migration is real the migration is alarming in its own right it is a humanitarian disaster at the level of what is happening to the people doing the migrating and it is very definitely being encouraged and facilitated by the International Community which appears to have the idea that migration is inherently a good thing now I don't know how anyone could possibly be that confused but this is visible if you look at the web pages of the organizations that are doing the facilitating they say this that Migra it is their mission to induce migration they believe that migration is positive but that migration is cloaking something else I can't say exactly what that something else is but it would be irresponsible not to consider the possibility that it is um an international competitor taking advantage of our open border uh to arrange some kind of harm that will be more easily orchestrated that way than it would be on a battlefield okay I know you tell your kids that um when they have a hypothesis they need to assign a percentage likelihood that it's accurate what percentage likelihood of accuracy do you give the invasion hypothesis so let's be clear on what that hypothesis is if that hypothesis is that the Chinese Communist party is sending people across our Southern border with the intent to do harm to the United States I would say 60% whoa okay um now there are lots of other possibilities uh you know does spying fall under that hypothesis no I don't think that is specifically to do harm so so you think it's more than spying so there's the 60% is like proper harm you know here's the thing I know how crazy that sounds and well my my final question will be around that like so one of the early questions I asked you was is there ever hypothesis so far out that it's better not to even float it out we've already had that conversation um the what I want to understand that with this is what happened that gave you that much confidence because I agree with you that this is on the table as one of the things that it very well could be and I don't think you just said this but I've heard you say this before which is really powerful if you believe that there is some element of financial corruption in our system which I think everybody agrees there's a lot of money in our system whether we call it corruption or not is almost a moot point that there's a ton of money in our politics money moves the needle here if people know that from the outside would they not leverage that to get what they want so that could be paying a ton of money to ensure that the migrants are allowed in the country um but what I want want to know is this is such a high degree of certainty from somebody I consider so cautious in their thinking um but this falls into that bucket that you're playing with more and more as you got battered through the covid situation it felt to me like you got I don't know if frustrated or angry but you started like making Bolder claims Bolder claims and this one is the one help me understand what are the building blocks that make it up so we know they had their own migration going in they didn't act in the way that you expected them to act they were hostile well first of all let me say this is part of why I decided I had to go in person because had you already been hearing this before you yeah the the folks who um who showed Zach and me this migration had been sending materials for better part of a year so I was quite aware of what I was like to see but it made no sense and frankly I talked almost not at all about it because I did not want to find myself broadcasting things that turned out not to be what had been represented to me I was very cautious about it and I you know it was hard to justify going it's not an especially safe place to go um what was I going to see that I couldn't deduce from a video but I was very glad glad that I did go because the physical relationship between these two different migrations and most importantly the the approach that the migrants in the Chinese C uh Camp had to us was unmistakable it was hostile now why was it hostile it's hard to so part of the reason that you find that number as high as you find it is that given what I saw it is hard to come up with other explanations for it right were these people fleeing oppression that was inconsistent with the way they dealt with us it did not feel right now can I convey that to you in a way that you would have uh a degree of certainty about it not really you know I don't think you know me well enough to know what it would take to trigger that circuit for me um but here's the other question we have a southern border that is effectively open yep we are not doing even the most basic due diligence with respect to establishing who is crossing that border and why given that do you believe that our antagonists abroad will take advantage of that fact I find that almost certain yes so um I find the hypothesis compelling but I thought you were going to say like 7 to 10% um so let me lay out the part where you and I agree and then as the person that's just armchair quarterbacking it I'll give you sort of my take knowing I haven't been there and so I really I'm just pulling the [ __ ] out of my ass but uh so I heard from enough analysts of China that the Chinese diaspora is a very meaningful thing and that some percentage of the people in the Chinese diaspora really view themselves still as Chinese regardless of where they live now this is just analysts that I've heard speak this is not me forming a firsthand account so I know that this is part of my distortion on my lenses this is not I don't trust this but in terms of hypothesis being very unsure but it's an interesting guess that warrants exploration so to your point uh governments are going to do what they can to get a leg up we are in a pure competitor relationship with China uh China has every reason to want to know more about what we're doing as we have every reason to want to know what China's doing now breaking from that I will say it is very possible that China is in a pretty rough economic situation right now if the housing issue there is as big as some pundits are making it out to be again no firsthand knowledge don't know but certainly interesting I could see not being of that culture missing cues misreading cues so that they seem hostile or whatever again they could be throwing things at you spitting I don't know but uh that'd be pretty tough to misread but if it were more of just a body language refusal to interact scowling that kind of thing um then well well beyond that okay um give me the craziest thing they did well I don't know that any of it was crazy but uh we attempted to interact with several different groups at the San Vicente Camp uh one gentleman attempted to mislead us into believing that he was Korean and uh Micha Leon who took us to Daran who has spent time in China um red him up and revealed that this was a deception at which point there was laughter amongst the group who uh had witnessed this attempted deception and then following that there was no willingness to talk about the reality it wasn't that this had been a practical joke on you know some naive foreigners and that that broke the ice right this was a deception that was exposed and it led nowhere I also believe that we were um monitored in the camp so there was a particular guy I was watching who repositioned himself as we moved to different places in order to witness what was taking place there and I believe he was keeping tabs on us I don't know why that would be didn't strike me as uh a normal behavior for somebody who is you know involved in a major migration to a new Homeland it still feels qualitative though so we have qualitative feedback because I can so you don't know this about me but my background is actually writing so I often ask myself If This Were a character and I were writing them what would have to be true for them to act this way one could be I'm here as a spy for sure or I'm here to do harm but honestly if I'm coming to [ __ ] you up the last thing I'm going to do is be openly antagonistic I'm going to be super friendly cuz I do not want you to be queued into what I'm really doing but if I have a dim view of Americans and I've got some sense of I'm going to America because I want to bring my culture to another great place and I want to spread the Chinese diaspora and I have no idea what uh inside of China they say about America they could say lovely things I have no idea but I know that like across Europe it hasn't been a I came to England because I want to embrace English values it is in many cases is I've come to England and I plan to stake my values and I'm trying to bring as many people over as I can so that we can really have our own at least Pockets where our culture is the culture and given that America hopefully still has that Vibe of like yeah we want diaspora people we want people to come here and make this a cooler place now I think that we have to reckon with that because I don't think you can bring this many people over at once I think we're going to have problems but like I still like the vibe of the Statue of Liberty give me your tired we huddled masses like I [ __ ] love that Vibe anyway uh I can write a bunch of backstories for these guys where yes they're clowning on the idiot Americans even though they're trying to get to America now whether they're fleeing China because China with my archetype is not the kind of place I would want to be or they're coming over as an invasion I don't know the only thing I would say is I can paint a lot of scenarios where they are probably still problematic from a whole host of very nons Sinister nons spyy reasons but it could also be exactly what you're saying I just would have again I have not been there so I've not seen the things that you see so I'm in the DMT position again of I haven't met the little guy uh but it feels to me with qualitative data that it warrants a more cautious percentage well the question is what would you think if you had been there I don't and I might be way more hardcore than you I might be 90% don't know nobody has any trouble accepting that uh China's building weaponry and so the point is it's not beyond our thought process to imagine that somebody might be preparing for war with us but for some reason this bargain hey their southern border is open can we do anything with that is it worth sending in you know maybe maybe the decision to utilize them hasn't been made but the ideas it would be a shame not to take advantage of that open border while it's still open and who knows how long it will be do you have an estimate of how many Chinese have crossed I believe it's tens of thousands whoa It's a lot okay for a second let's just pretend that the dark scenario is the true scenario which you've 60% I'm like 7% but whatever do you think that we're going to have a reckoning like if you send tens of thousands of people that still have allegiance to the Homeland and the Homeland wants to do you dirty I don't even like thinking like this this is interesting this is triggering some World War II Vibes in me uh which I'm not loving but let's finish the thought experiment I get your friend hates that but uh do you think we have a reckoning coming with a potential problem where the call came from inside the house I I don't understand why this is even tough because it seems self-evident that an enemy would want to do this given a manifestly open Southern border you don't think anybody's going to notice that they can send people over it and utilize I mean how many years did we spend taking off our shoes in airports right I mean and the the the absurdity of you know if you come across the border if you come home from Central America you will be monitored they will know exactly who's crossing the border at exactly what moment you're doing it right it's a whole different situation you will have scrutiny exerted in your case and in another case there's no scrutiny that that is a mystery to me how did that happen when I ask obvious questions like we have a corrupt political system it's pay for playay what is to have stopped our antagonists abroad from having purchased influence with which to get us to harm ourselves isn't that the obvious bargain if they can do it well in a way where I don't realize that's what the money's for I think it's something good yeah I could for sure I see a lot of really bad ideas get a lot of energy not saying I think this has happened but I it certainly fits the incentive model I I think the the thing that I don't understand is that we apparently spend I don't know how many hundreds of billions of dollars on the intelligence Community to think way outside of the box and figure out how a very clever enemy could possibly get inside our system and compromise us and we've left the most obvious mechanisms wide open and to talk about the what my assessment is that the most obvious loopholes are being utilized you know is like well do you have the evidence for that the evidence that we have antagonists abroad and that we we have people who never sleep because they're concerned that those enemies might get the jump on us that evidence exists I don't know what the reason is that the southern border is as open as it is I don't know why the International Community is encouraging migrants into the Darion I don't know why the Chinese are housed separately I don't know why the Chinese appear to be facilitated in their migration by their government oh but there there's one other thing I wanted to mention to you and again this goes back quite a number of years in fact this is goes back enough years that I had in fact forgotten it and it did not come back up as I was looking at this Chinese migration phenomenon in Darion when the Chinese one child policy was in full force I wrote a an essay I was not a public figure I don't know that anybody read the essay but I wrote an essay about a paradox there is a principle in evolutionary biology that goes back to Ronald fiser Ronald fiser realized something important about sex ratios he wasn't thinking about humans and what he realized was that although males and females differ tremendously in how many offspring they can produce in a lifetime that on average given uh some very basic assumptions on average they produce the same number of Offspring and there is therefore no advantage to producing males over females or vice versa that is to say a male might produce a thousand times as many offspring as a female in a given case but on average they produce the same number so if there are too many males you should produce females and if there are too many females you should produce males because you tend to succeed better evolutionarily if you produce the rare sex now that logic should apply to people and it should have applied to China if you were a Chinese person and you were going to only be able to have one child and they were going to grow up in a nation with an abundance of males you should want to produce a female a male might well not find a mate a female would not only be all but certain to find a mate but she would have her choice because females would be in high demand so why I wondered all of these years ago did that not cause the Embrace of the production of females why did the Chinese continue to produce excess males and what I came up with was the sobering realization that there was another evolutionary force that might well be in play which is that in a world of lineage versus lineage competition that there might be a reason to produce a generation with excess males if you were preparing for war that excess males actually are the perfect substrate for lineage against lineage violence because men who have no reproductive prospects at home who are sexually frustrated can be armed and sent abroad with a desire to come back a hero and that that would be a very effective mechanism for picking up territory the same process I described you when we were talking about genocide that if you wanted does that seem though like it would be a it's the thing you do when you find yourself a surplus males it isn't the thing you set out to do well I don't see I agree with you that it would be unnatural if you happened to end up with Surplus m but I don't see any reason that you wouldn't have an evolutionary tendency to especially in a culture that is as farsighted as the Chinese have been it's interesting I will say that there might be other hypotheses that don't require them to be so calculated which seems tough to get your whole culture like all you're doing is applying the pressure you only have one child and the nation Builds an army for you strikes me as well not impossible strikes me as very unlikely I also have a base assumption that could be wrong but it's a base assumption in my operating system that China's not very imperialist so I think that people will confuse their desire to get Taiwan back with a and we want to go get more like they're pretty like let the world do what the world's going to do like yes we want to be financially invested so that everybody owes us one but we don't want to take them over we don't want to run their countries um but they they want Taiwan back because that's part of the original Vision so anyway if you've got a nation that is not Imperial in nature and they were literally worried about people starving to death which is why they said ah you can only have one kid and so then you'll get a brief burst of we want a mail because the that's how you pass the lineage on that's how you pass the cash on like just give me a boy that's all I want I have a feeling that if it had kept going on they would have gone oh that was a really dumb strategy I now I want to have girls because this balance is all out of whack but because they end up nipping that in the butt I think in the 90s so it only runs for like 20 years so you really only have like one generation to be like oh terrible idea now so if it had gone on longer and they kept like making sure that they were only having guys then I might be a little bit more like okay maybe but yeah I mean I I hear what you're saying um and the problem is that the current governance of China is a departure from the historical true uh so anyway I find it interesting that you have a violation of a known evolutionary principle The Balancing of sex ratios seems to me that this would have been obvious to an individual um that even if the society viewed uh male children in a particular way that you could calculate that for your own lineage the chances of your child finding a mate uh suggested that actually it would be clever to have girls so I don't know to me it's an open question and the fact that we have uh what looks like an invasion uh from what looks like one of our principal I I don't like the term enemy but looks like a competitor competitor antagonist abroad well one thing that could be interesting again hypothesis that I have no real reason to believe is actually happening but is worthy of exploration would be that this is more of a Viking model where oh I find myself with excess males intentionally or otherwise and oh my primary rival has an open Southern border and uh the Chinese diaspora is real so I know they will still feel a pretty strong allegiance to the Homeland let me send them over which probably isn't a hateful idea oh man I can't remember there was a guy that was made a spy and uh he from Russia uh he was actually East German but anyway gets um recruited to be a spy in the west and he was like oh the thought of like living in America he's like they didn't have to convince me I was totally here for it um so I could see them being like no authoritarian rule no uh social credit score I'm here for it let's go well I will say the scenario you laid out does fit uh if if the scenario you laid out was right then my 60% uh estimate is includes it right an opportunistic invasion that does fit um but I also wanted to point out that the Chinese as much as they have a multi- millennium history of effectively being insular uh is engaged in what is called the belt and Road initiative which is uh an expansive plan that uh looks you know like a modern Imperial you think that looks Imperial I think it looks like I want you to owe me one I don't want to be Imperial I do not want to have to rule over you guys cuz that [ __ ] is messy but boy oh boy do I want to control your infrastructure do I want you to have relationships with me trade deal want to control the flow of resources and labor to facilitate a sinocentric future I'm not faulting all the good without Chinese having to govern you right I'm not fa ing the Chinese for advocating for their own wellbeing I do view much as I view our government as not synonymous with our population I see our government is in large measure hostile to the well-being of the citizens and I feel the same way about the relationship of the Chinese government to the Chinese people but nonetheless if there is any I don't fault the Chinese for uh viewing the world in competitive terms that's that's the adult way to to recognize how things work um but I do think we are being naive not at least publicly entertaining the possibility that our antagonists abroad would take advantage of our uh lack of security our famous lack of security uh on our Southern border and the international community's facilitation of massive migration would be the perfect cover for something that was not collaborative all right I have a nasty question I want to ask about the 2024 election many people think Trump is the rational monster is he I don't think so I I don't I don't want him to be president because I don't think he has the uh the time the temperament or the team building skills to do the job that is necessary but I do believe he is at least a departure from the ruling cabal which is clearly hostile to the well-being of average people um that said I believe there is only one rational choice left to us in this election and it is Bobby Kennedy Jr you don't think that'll split the vote I don't even know what to think about that question the Democratic Party appears to be Fielding a candidate who was too mentally decrepit for years ago to be elected to the presidency running him again is so Preposterous that it's not obvious to me how any American can in good conscience vote for Biden it is incon consistent with our constitutional republic that we have a decrepit figurehead who is standing in for a cabal whose names we don't know people who are unelected cannot be called in front of Congress and questioned if we are attacked in the night who takes the phone call and decides whether we launch the nukes you cannot have a person as far gone as Joe Biden in that office that is a different country so my feeling is the Democratic party has an obligation to field a reasonable candidate before there is any vote to split in the absence of that every single rational American should be fleeing the Democratic party in favor of whatever makes the most sense and again in my opinion there's really only one plausible candidate for the job running for the office how the one plausible candidate running for the office is a long shot I have not figured out but here you have a guy who has an encyclopedic knowledge of what has just happened to us over the course of the covid crisis he's the one guy who's in a position to sort out the implication of what took place so that we can get a proper Reckoning and make sure that doesn't happen again what's more you have a guy who has a deep understanding of the deep State and is obviously willing to risk his life over the question of how to uh disengage it from governance so that we can go back to being a Democratic Republic I also I personally know him I like him a great deal I trust him and I believe that um his legal knowledge and his uh his wisdom the fact that this is somebody I mean his personal familial story is tied up in the exact trauma that our nation has lived under since 1963 right to have the possibility of putting him in that office to finally move us past that chapter into some uh renewed phase of American strength to restore the consent of the Govern seems to me like the obvious thing to do we are lucky that we have that option on the table and I can't believe that we would in in the face of that be embracing tired tropes like spoiler and the lesser of two evils right you those tropes make no sense in an era where the DNC is Fielding Joe Biden in his state of of uh disrepair it just it's inconsistent with it we this is an emergency and we we have somebody that we can vote for who makes perfect sense couldn't inhabit the office has the skills has the temperament would likely have eight years in which to get the job done all of those things are powerful arguments in favor of this person and um I really hope people will rethink their reflex of embrace of what amounts to a a jersey color over reason I've been apolitical my entire life uh the system has worked well for me so I've never um had a problem I've just always been like I'm going to outwork everybody I don't give a [ __ ] what you try to do to slow me down like I'm going to keep going and because it has worked well for me it I don't immediately find myself gravitating towards the problems now Andrew Yang comes onto the scene and I'm looking at I remember telling my employees the night before the Trump election guys he cannot get elected like he he is on tape he said I grabbed them in the [ __ ] it it's done like I I was so I was literally laughing I'm like you guys are panicking he is fundamentally unelectable it can't happen and so I was like go to bed rest everything's going to be fine and so the next morning when I say that I was like what I I was so caught off guard and taken by surprise was just anyway a very surprising moment so that was the first time where I thought Whoa man maybe votes really do count like you know that I I should have voted I didn't vote never even really thought I'm like I live in California it's like it's a default you know State's going to go Blue so never thought about the need to vote never even took inventory of am I conservative or um am I liberal none of it just didn't think about it as this all starts happening and the the Trump thing is kicking off and I start with just default assumptions that he's a psychopath and he is like literally ruining this country and then Yang comes around because I'm like who am I going to vote for in the next election because now I realize I really do need to vote and yang came along and I'm like yo this dude and I was really into him and obviously he gets sort of railroaded off but then I had him on my podcast and I was way opposed to LBI uh Ubi Ubi and uh when I had him on the podcast I'm talking to him and I'm like you know man I'm still not sure if I agree with Ubi or not but like I really believe in this dude like and if this dude has looked at this problem that close and is like yo we really have to take this into consideration I'm just willing to say either I need to go figure it out for myself and do all the hardcore research or I need to find a proxy that I can trust and I felt so good about him so when you came out with unity and and off camera I told him dude you better [ __ ] run again next cycle because one you look super preent now that because this was right after Co hit um and I just really think people are going to get used to your way and there there could be a real shot for you and so when you started talking Unity 2020 and the people that you were putting forth that he happened to be one I was like ah there's he gave me the clear sense of what you meant by a patriot and okay so that's the framework with which I'm now stepping into the first time I hear about Unity 2020 and I think o this is interesting but my first problem is Tick Tock man we are running up against it so how are you not worried about and forget it I know you're going to pull the plug if we can't but I'm just saying I really want it to happen so how do we get enough done in the really small amount of time that we have like can you even get on the ballot everywhere well see that's the thing everybody asks this question you have to realize something you probably hadn't heard a plan like Unity 2020 before in other words you've you've probably heard the Lesser evil thing a dozen times right you've heard why you can't engage in this and then the answer is oh there's actually a very simple solution to that puzzle ballot access has this element if you think well ballot access is a matter of collecting signatures there's a date in every state and that's it then we're cooked that's true we are cooked you can't do it that way it's not the only way so the question is is there something that you are not seeing and I can promise you there is can I promise you that we're going to get there oh I absolutely can't what we need is a ground swell in order to find out right everything depends on people realizing what I think even in what you just said uh I think is missing which is I don't think there's any guarantee that something recognizable makes it to 2024 for Andrew Yang to run again I think Andrew Yang is thinking that it does right in fact I saw an interview in which he ominously said that he had signed something that said he was going to step out of the race this time and not do anything that might interfere with it who is asking him to sign what this is a democracy who knows what the future holds why would any honorable person ask somebody who is clearly capable qualified for the job why would you take anybody off the map with their signature shouldn't a handshake do it and say look under foreseeable circumstances I'm not planning to run shouldn't that be good enough for just about anybody so anyway something ominous is a foot in our system that wishes to take Andrew out of circulation we saw it act during the primaries right we saw all sorts of shenanigans played in order to to limit his influence I think it's very clear why you know again the Democratic party does not want to represent the public because it has other priorities Andrew Yang would clearly represent the public so he's a non-starter frankly I think he'll be a non-starter in 2024 2028 you know whatever it is right the the problem within the current system well let's put it this way why is he behaving like a good soldier in the current system if the current system cannot allow Andrew Yang to be Andrew Yang I mean there's something just seriously off so uh in any case the um the thing about Andrew Yang that I really like and the reason that I named him as a member the the left leaning member of the the prototypical ticket is that he is uh very insightful he's clearly motivated by the right things to be honest with you I'm not sure I believe in Ubi as presented but my sense is there it's a problem that needs to be addressed Ubi is a proposal it proves that Andrew is interested in the right things he's focused in the right place personally I would argue that something like participation income might be a better instantiation but here's the thing I know for sure let's say that Andrew Yang found himself in the white house there's no problem saying look Ubi was a cool idea here's why it doesn't work here's an idea that fixes the problem with Ubi and addresses the same thing that IT addresses Andrew Yang would look at it and if he thought actually that does work better there's no obstacle to it right he would accept it or if he understood something about participation income that wasn't as effective at Ubi he'd throw back that argument and we'd find out right there's no there's nothing in the system there's no reason he'd be committed to it there's no constituency that uh is favoring Ubi that is actually driving his claim to believe in it so again it's just a simple matter of let's let democracy work by taking people who can afford to listen to any idea who don't have a dog in the fight personally who can actually speak on our behalf so yeah Andrew's perfect for that because he's smart he's open-minded he's Patriot I mean hell yeah so as we um there's some way that you guys see that we can get on the ballot in time when do you plan to announce announce uh who the candidates are and what does that is that process of selecting those candidates something that you pass off or do you have to have the unity um the unity party that you know has their own sort of version of the DNC that does this like what CU I I will say I'm I'm the guy that um you probably are aiming at convincing right like I'm ready I'm ready to be convinced but right now I feel like if I wasn't obsessed with you as a thinker um I just wouldn't pay attention because I don't have enough details y so it's like and if I'm saying that like uh there's just not enough details here so I'm just not even going to think about it because I go to a pessimistic place if they're never even going to be able to get on the ballot it's just too [ __ ] late um and that there is hopelessness in that but I think that that level of sort of um just unquestioned hopelessness right i' I'm only processing through this because I'm sitting in front of you now right so otherwise I wouldn't it just would be sort of background like oh that' be cool but you know we're just it's just not going to happen in time um okay how do how do we give the the you know the optimism and the sense of like [ __ ] this could really happen Okay so uh there are a couple answers to the question one I don't think there's any point in actually attempting to deliver a ticket it if we don't have the ground swell that makes it plausible because for one thing what it does is it actually damages the people who we would name right interesting we we want them empowered in order to empower them to uh to work on our behalf they have to be drafted into this movement which requires the ground swell if we don't get the ground swell then it doesn't make sense to do it however here's the thing that I think you're looking for let's say that this plan fails and we're not on track by uh well we can't actually say when because we don't know how the ballots are going to be delivered and therefore when voting is actually going to take place but let's say we're not on track in time but let's say that we have managed to uh to accumulate a movement of people that understands that we are now rolling the dice with all of the most dangerous processes on earth right a the world superpower is now gambling with the possibility of Civil War right we haven't even begun to talk about what happens if we fragment not only is there no geographical solution that suggests itself in this case but um somehow we're talking about not only a nuclear Arsenal but we're talking about U nuclear reactors that need to be carefully managed how you know how is a transition to some other structure in which the United States ceases to exist going to work so all I'm saying is the magnitude of the danger that we are putting the world in even before you get to the question of what happens next if the United States fails because we tear ourselves apart that empowers um China is China the next uh you know pole of the of the world single pole um you know is it going to be Russia what happens in the absence of a powerful United States we're putting the world in Jeopardy here so we're putting the world in Jeopardy the process seems to be moving incredibly rapidly such that we can have a discussion about whether or not uh there's going to be something to salvage in 2024 or not um this is an amazing level of danger that we are putting ourselves and the world in in light of that it seems to me that it makes sense for every person with ears to hear um that predicament to gather around well what is the chance that we can road to shore why wouldn't you take a shot at something like Unity 2020 and here's the thing if it fails to elect a ticket to the White House it could still cause um all of the projects that aim for a better world to to uh collect into one we've got the open source movement movement we've got the cryptocurrency movement um we've got makers we've got game B right all of these things we've got IDW all of these things aim to solve problems in the Legacy World why wouldn't they join together and understand that in effect the entire game is can we bring the things that we've learned in all of these different contexts into uh a structure that has the power to implement them or to clear the obstacles so in essence the answer to your question is whether we succeed or fail in 2020 we can succeed in creating the best hope for the future will it be enough nobody can guarantee that I certainly won't but is it the best hope we've got I haven't heard a better one so you know what's holding us back from just simply getting behind this idea it doesn't carry any ideological content that would cause anybody to look at it and say oh that's not that's not me right that's it has deliberately been pruned of ideological content so that it can uh it can cause these other things to gravitate to each other and isn't that the movement that we're looking for one that understands um the uh the value of crypto and open source and and all of these other things I think the real answer to the question of what's holding us back is you don't have sex appeal yet so like what what is going to be the hook you know what I mean so part and and I have not thought through this well enough to know if what I'm about to say is actually true or not I feel very confident about what I just said you lack a hook that's sexy enough to get people um excited but there is there's so much noise right now um I I can't tell you how much my YouTube viewing habits have changed in the last like three months it it is so surreal to me even to think um like now I'm I'm just sort of almost like I'm watching news right I'm looking for things that came out right now that are super contextual to what's happening in this moment there's there's a cacophony of voices um and because I was apolitical and didn't watch news I didn't even realize that um that news had become Kabuki theater and it's so weird to see like if I see this same thing being covered on CNN versus Fox it actually looks like different things happened I mean it's so [ __ ] bizarre and not having an allegiance in either direction I'm just like this is fundamentally problematic like if you follow this out to its natural conclusion you're just more and more and more polarized because there's this weird friction in fact uh um I know I'm I'm going a field of where I was originally headed but this is actually interesting so there's a weird friction as you adopt one narrative or the other of the same factual thing that happened but one narrative feels right to you feels like you're now cheering for your team yes they're covering it in a way that's speaks to me there's friction in in the other one because neither are true so the other one isn't oh I'm getting to truth it's you're asking me to actually adopt the opposing team's narrative which already didn't resonate with me on a subconscious level anyway so now that I'm consciously looking at it it really feels anathema to who I am this does not feel good I don't like this so it it is far easier to go from one interpretation to another if both had a sincere effort to get to the facts and one just missed something or you know that wasn't said as well as it could be and so you could gravitate to oh I see this is actually what happened cool I can make that leap but when the sensemaking apparatus is intentionally now so deep into the world of narrative I can't cross that divide and so that's what scares me is there's already people seek things that confirm the confirmation bias confirm what they already believe but that's a lot less problematic when the disconfirming evidence doesn't trigger um some weird destruction of your identity in the way that now it forces you to because you have polarized narratives um and how we get past that and have sex appeal is where like this starts to worry me so my we we you cannot let me end this interview without us talking about shutdown stem which to me when I look around and I go okay people with guns and riots and stuff okay that's all troubling but the one that scares the [ __ ] out of me is shut down stem and we can get into why but the once people detach themselves from what works what moves you towards your goal then it it is it you you can no longer in any effective way move forward and that's what worries me so when I think about what the effective way forward here is in this moment with unity 2020 you have to capture the imagination of people and you're competing against a narrative that gets people feeling like there is a dragon to be slayed and they're willing to run out the streets it's intoxicating and even if like dude I know you know Ma's China um the the revolution the the Red Guard that rose up and you had students actually killing teachers and dude when I stop and think about what I was like in high school and this really bother this really bothers me I remember when Jordan Peterson said when you look back on World War II don't imagine yourself hiding um you know a Jewish person in your addict think of yourself as an SS guard and I thought oh God but when I think about me being 16 during the uprising of the Red Guard I'd have put dun caps on my teachers and you know hit them with a stick I would have dude because it just it felt so I felt so right about everything at that age well I get that I have to say I uh I think Jordan Peterson is right although personally I there's not I feel a certain amount of security that I wouldn't have ended up an SS guard no no that not not because I'm Jewish let's let's put me in uh you know in uh in an I don't know Aryan skin or something somehow there's something about me that is uh so incompatible with a certain kind of authority that I just it's impossible your movements with Evergreen make that hard to argue yeah well anyway um let's go back to the question of um sex appeal for one um here's the thing there's a saying that I'm very fond of it's a Hopey saying we are the ones we've been waiting for right and I I think it's just impossibly deep actually and so here's the thing you're you're a guy who's trying to build a new Disney right you're the sex appeal guy right you know we're in danger that's part of why we're having this conversation so the question is what is the answer to that I know full well that you're right that at some level what I have deployed reaches a certain number of people who were ready but it doesn't reach a large enough group now it's not that there's anything wrong with the idea I'm sure of that but you're right the question is can you deliver it narratively in a way that people get it instantly they understand what it is why they have to be part of it and it seems to me that this is the same the the same question we were dealing with earlier the dynamic tension that
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