Transcript
S0j8_1t1c1A • The Collapse of America & Everything Wrong With Society Today (+ A Hopeful Way Forward) | Ray Dalio
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looking at the US and um I don't want to
be cheeky and say speaking directly to
uh the you know the US government but if
I were to be so bold so if this is that
predictable moment where okay there are
actions that we can take as a country
that will either um help us keep um the
world Reserve currency status and there
are actions that we can take that will
cause us to lose that status more
quickly it seems
like okay uh you've got the brics
Nations they are moving away from the
dollar it seems like that has already
that card has already been played I
don't know if you think there's anything
that we can do to to make that easier um
but certainly speaking to printing so
one thing that I've I've heard recently
and this is a really fascinating concept
that when you have other nations that
are holding your currency holding debt
as you said they're not like hoarding
cash but they're they're holding a lot
of debt if we print money what we're
essentially doing is um externalizing
inflation so we are uh causing a
devaluation of that debt for all the
countries that hold us now we're in a
moment with Rising interest rates that's
causing us to need to print uh but
creating this really weird difficult
moment where as we print then we have a
need to raise interest rates but the
reason we're having to print is because
we're raising interest rates so it's
it's a very difficult moment um but if
if we could going back to your idea it's
how we are with each other if we could
get people to come together in the
middle would one of the things we would
want to convince the US government to do
is to be very cautious about devaluing
the dollar is is that an important idea
it's more basic than that and it's um
more simple but it's also more difficult
[Music]
um what the reason Cycles exist is that
the next stage has been determined by
what has already happened in the prior
stage
so we are in debt a
lot you you can't change that we got a
lot of debt and if you say what could
you do I mean two things come to mind
what you could do is you could be
financially
strong and you can not
use um Financial sanctions as a weapon
to scare the holders of those bonds but
to be financially
strong requires you to not spend more
than you
earn that means you either have to cut
your spending or raise your earnings
okay okay that's okay that ain't
easy okay okay so are we going to cut
our
spending um uh um okay now you look at
it what are you g to uh infrastructure
programs I don't know poverty transfers
defense spending okay what what are we
going to cut um the
world governments
have the same basic economics as um
people except for the fact that they can
take money from one person and Sh give
it to another and they can print
money that's it and so when you look at
this um okay you have that Gap you can
eliminate the Gap by taking money from
some and eliminating another and not
spending much
okay okay that's not easy right okay
okay what are you going to the most
governments now uh don't think how much
money do I have to spend and then how do
I prioritize
that they
think I need to spend on this I need to
spend on that and I need to spend on
that and they spend on it and then they
either produce a they produce a deficit
it and then you either have to pay it
back with hard money or printed money
and that's situation so when you say
what could we do well you've got to get
financially strong in a politically
fragmented environment in which
everybody wants
more and you and you have to um you know
like be a higher percentage of World
Trade so that everybody wants to use
your currency and um be um and not
threaten the holders of that bonds with
freezing their assets it is uh it's a
tall order in this moment um I it has
become so clear to me in the last month
since you and I uh saw each
other how important the reason that you
keep coming back to it all comes down to
how people treat each other so in this
moment um I don't want to be a Debbie
Downer but it does feel like the die is
cast a little bit I don't see how we
pull ourselves back from the precipice
because to your point about being um
fiscally responsible like we'd have to
get into a position where we're making
more than we spend I want to circle
around to something as you were talking
you mentioned infrastructure and it got
me thinking about okay what are things
that uh we would need to go right so I
think everybody is aware and I've heard
you say that there there are changes
that are going to need to be made to
capitalism in order to bring back a
thriving middle class and the importance
of the thriving middle class and you've
defined the things you know again
staying to the theme of principles here
of uh the three things that we need to
do to be strong as a country or for any
country to be strong uh and you said two
parents in the home uh great public
education and then equal opportunity
where where do you see us on those are
we moving in the right direction moving
in the wrong direction well again uh you
know maybe I Aspire too much to two
parents in the home um it's certainly
better if you have two loving parents
raising a family that's that's good but
maybe that's too much to ask for um but
in other words good Parental Guidance
you know okay you're raised well you're
educated well you can go to a public
school that educates you well and you
have good guidance so you're well raised
in a healthy environment and not only do
you learn um you know skills and and all
that but you learn how to behave well to
with each other so you learn
Civility and um and um so you come out
capable and
civil um to a land of
opportunity in which you can you know
work and and and have a good
environment um and really that's all you
need if a society does that right um and
I think you know where we you know the
things that are going on you know um
education in a lot of public
education is um a it's deteriorating
it's a real problem um my wife works to
help um the poorest school districts the
poorest people uh in the state of
Connecticut um and uh the state of
Connecticut is usually it's always one
two or three in terms of the highest per
capita income um and in the state of
Connecticut uh as of the last survey 22%
of the high school students have either
dropped out of High School whoa or or
have uh absentee rates which are greater
than 25% in are failing
classes so at they're
living
in po they're living in areas that don't
have the things I'm talking about about
parents nutrition and so on um and
there's not adequate resources for them
for example during
covid um we um we found that 60,000
students didn't have uh computers or
connectivities to take
classes and the government wasn't going
to provide it so philanthropically we we
bought 60,000 computers and give it to
the kids and but we can't you know we
can't do the you know so our
society is um when you look at this um
you see
um drugs drug
problems um you
see how the cities are
changing
um you know the cleanliness of the
Cities the education levels of the
Cities mental
illness um crimes and so on um you're
not
seeing you
know you're seeing people fighting with
each other a
lot um not all the time there are
wonderful places in the United
States you
know education some of the best
universities their pockets some of the
you know their neighborhoods but there
is this encroaching so you see
infrastructure breaking
down
um school shootings I don't you know
like okay so you decide how are we
doing I think we're doing pretty badly
um it I I don't
know look it's not going to be a popular
thing but I think going back to what you
were saying about the parents and maybe
asking for two people is too much look I
get it I think everybody's doing their
best and and God knows for any single
parents out there you have my love and
respect that it just seems Seems like a
hard job when there's two of you let
alone one so I'm not I'm not throwing
shade but in terms of cultural moment
momentum when I look at people not uh
not getting married before they have
kids uh incentives that end up leading
people to where it's actually more
economically advantageous to have a
child when you're
single uh does not strike me as a great
idea uh and trying to reverse that Trend
I think is going to be really important
really putting a ton of time and energy
into making sure that we're we are
looking at ourselves on a global stage
from an educational stand point and
understanding that we are competing
against I mean just to really make it
Stark we're competing against China now
I have employees that grew up in China I
actually have some contractors that are
in China currently and when I see the
the discrepancy of what demands the
educational system places on them when
they're young versus the demands that we
place on our our students when they're
young it creates a ripple effect as they
get into the workforce in terms of just
the the expectations that they have of
themselves the drive uh the desire to
excel um so these strike me as as really
really problematic things I'd love to
talk to you about Singapore so as we're
talking and I haven't studied Singapore
very closely but when I think about um
you know how they've created something
that seems really amazing very recently
and and sort of born up out of
nothing is it those three principles uh
two parents in the home quality
education equal opportunity I mean is
that it or is there something else earn
more than you know earn more than you
spend be well educated to help you earn
more that you said be civil with each
other be
productive um you know when you come out
equal opportunity and and um it's not
just um like in Singapore uh but it's
true in other countries there's a level
Bel below which nobody should go CH
certainly children should not go right
how can you have an environment that
children there so there should be basics
of
housing um Health
Care um certain
Basics uh because otherwise you build a
cycle you you know I mean when they
become When the Children become
adults you might say oh it's up to them
to do it but if you mess up the children
early they become the adults who can't
do it and so you have this
cycle you know in which you have to take
care of people you know you walk around
and look at it you can see the gaps the
opportunity gaps you can see the mental
illness gaps you you know walk down the
street and you know downtown Manhattan
or lots of places and see the gaps okay
and some that adult who
is screaming uh you know and homeless
and whatever came from a place a reason
you know that was the made him that way
and um you know so it's like the you
know why isn't the
computer given to the kid who doesn't
have a computer so he can have learning
think about how difficult it is for the
for the kid who doesn't have learning
and they have one parent and that parent
might have in a poverty and might have
drug problems and all that I mean the
kid can't make it so the kid's going to
come up to be an adult okay what kind of
an adult is it's going to be a problem
so I know that a lot of people are going
to say okay well raise taxes we'll have
money for all of that um that doesn't
seem to be how things work but I'm open
to being wrong about that there's a book
coming out I'm very interested to read
called taxes have consequences which I
don't think people think a lot about but
it is entirely possible that I'm wrong
so if we look at someone like Singapore
do they just have really high tax rates
and they distribute it in a way that
makes sense what they did
was
um they required
savings they require
it require savings an
employee um I think an I think it works
like this um employee gives um 12% of
their incomes an employer gives 22% H
10% of their income so they saved um um
something like 22% of their income is in
savings okay they do other things too
they have a tax balance but they have a
savings um and as a society they earn
more than they
spend okay so and then um on housing for
example they have um a public housing
that um is uh
subsidized that the person can take
their
savings uh with to use to buy that
public housing that is a s saving
through that saving so um everybody has
good housing good public housing um and
they own it so if it goes up in bre
value they can sell it and and so they
have that so the housing
creates a good
environment they put a lot of money into
education equal
education it's not people there uh don't
have to go to a private school to get
good
education they so they have good
education and they so and then they have
uh the people who work hard and are
civil with each
other and that's how it works
and it forget about
Singapore if you look through
history um these are these are basic
fundamental things so and so wherever
they've happened in
history um uh they've worked and you can
go
back through all history if you uh you
know these Basics earn more than
you you sp uh um you know be well
educated uh be civil U be
productive um you know those types of
things that uh those fundamentals
work what is it about the human
personality that makes it so common that
people don't deploy those things it's so
interesting to me because I found that
when people get richer the societies get
richer they typically get in more
debt which seems backwards like um so
for example I I watched uh the first
time it happened when the United States
started borrowing money from J from
China uh the United States had income
that was 40 per capita income 40 times
those from China and they're borrowing
money from China so I wonder like how
does does that really
happen and there's um when you don't
have much money and you're in a stage of
life
where uh you you know you value money
you want to
save so there's a psychological thing
you don't have much money you get some
money man you want to save it and to
save it means you have to lend it to
somebody then what happens is ironically
when everybody
earns more money and it's easy to
borrow people will get in in debt or a
society will get in debt or the
government will get in debt and also
then there become very big wealth
gaps
and people basically are interested in
taking care of their themselves
and so
um you don't have you have a fight over
taxes or something and so you have a
society that
borrows just even think the political
system
cycle people pay if you're um a new
politician and you run a state or you
run let's say a state
and it's before an
election it's in your interest to borrow
and
spend because nobody pays any attention
to the borrowing where the money comes
from they pay attention to the spending
so give them
stuff you know um go spend give them
stuff have a party it's like having a
party on
debt and there's this
shortsightedness it's like the you know
raising kids they call it the
marshmallow test you know uh you know
you ask a kid in an early uh early early
age I can give you one marshmallow now
or I can give you two marshmallows in 15
minutes which would you
prefer and um okay the smart one says um
I can defer my gratification for 15
minutes and get to
marshmallows um we have a lot of society
who wants the mar it now so is it um
enjoyable to take your money and spend
it
on better
infrastructure um or let's take the
education system the education system
according to the Constitution is a State
decision so it's not federal not mostly
Federal money then you come down to um
the state and it's mostly a tax District
if you're in this neighborhood through
property taxes and so on you will get
the money to educate your children in
that tax District so naturally um richer
tax districts will have better
money and so like I'm in um Greenwich
Connecticut and um last numbers I looked
I'm sure they're higher than this now
but it was not that long ago is in
Greenwich Connecticut it was uh $224,000
per student in um uh Bridgeport
Connecticut which is like 10 minutes up
the road it's $14,000 per student
whoa and they need more
money because they're they're
poor so so if you just take it's not
just education how do you clothe the kid
how do you feed the kid how do you give
them the computer that doesn't come
through the school and all that they
need more not less
budget so those are the mechanics of it
first you have to go to
bipartisanship um like if I was
President I would have a bipartisan
cabinet and then if I was dealing with
the economic
problems I'd get smart people from the
right and smart people from the left who
want to make this thing work and I'd put
them into like a Manhattan project kind
of thing in other words put them into uh
six months in which they have to agree
on a
system that's going to
work tie them together and force them to
agree
and come out with that and have them
gain control over the extremists who are
going to
fight like I don't really care exactly
how it works just as long as you know
like if smart people from both sides can
get together and make it
work and then you come back to these
Basics you know okay how do you spend
more earn more money than you spend how
do you educate your children well
whether or not you know and deal with
those project problems that way to in a
together
way um you'll get the best outcome if
you don't do that you won't get the best
outcome yeah I think this is this is
really brilliant if you like that clip
check out the full powerful episode here
and I'll see you there