Kind: captions
Language: en
take the the um the war in Gaza right
and we're now on the on the the tale of
all of these college protests we've had
we've witnessed in our finest
institutions uh apparently an endless
number of people expressing Sympathy for
the Palestinians and even sympathy for
Hamas and which is you know just
officially a genocidal death cult I me
described itself as a genocidal death
cult um and you know they they
they seem everything to my eye morally
seems upside down I mean they can't they
can't distinguish the difference between
people who use human Shields versus
people who are deterred by the use of
human Shields they can't distinguish
people who intentionally burn families
alive uh from people who inadvertently
you know kill innocent people trying to
kill the people who burn families alive
intentionally so there's there's just so
many asymmetries here but um what's
amazing is you have the these protests
on college campuses effectively
silencing even some of the most powerful
people in our society even just you know
celebrities who You' think you know
would would be totally unconcerned to
express their opinion they're being
silenced they you know they understand
that there's a difference between Hamas
and the and the IDF they won't say
anything in support of Israel because
it's just it's just too toxic in
Hollywood or in in um uh you know in
in among Fortune 500 corporations uh
there's there's they're so worried about
being uh boycotted and and you know and
public backlash especially on social
media um and yet on the other side there
are people signing you know celebrities
are signing letters in support of the
Palestinians and they're not at all
concerned to be mistaken for people who
support Hamas or or even even outright
anti-semitic um so there's that
asymmetry of public opinion and yet
there was just yesterday a Harvard
Harris poll that revealed that 75% of
Americans are all in for Israel they
think Israel should do a just route out
Hamas tomorrow in Rafa right I mean like
everyone's been debating whether the IDF
should go into Rafa and this is
absolutely tortured debate 75% of
Americans say go into Rafa and kill
Hamas right that's where public
sentiment actually is and yet we have
built a machine right where even the
most power powerful people in our societ
are terrified of public of of of of the
25% you know they're they're busily
offending e either by their silence or
by their their support for Hamas
effectively 75% of of America and they
don't even know it because everything is
so distorted the the whole information
landscape is so distorted based on WE
the capture of certain Elite
institutions by some very confused
people on the left and what we've done
on social media I mean everyone's just
looking at x thinking oh my God everyone
supports you know everyone thinks Israel
is guilty of genocide I should keep my
head down here I know I know Israel is
not guilty of genocide uh if the word
means anything but um this is just too
dangerous and yet in terms of the actual
public sentiment of the the people who
could buy the tickets to your next film
it's it's completely reversed in in
reality and I think one of the reasons
that is there obviously lots of reasons
but one of the reasons is in the social
media
age the cognitive bias of oh my God I am
seeing horror on my
screen therefore this is wrong right
automatically is very hard to overcome
and it's very difficult to argue against
that when you're seeing look I'm a
father when you see babies being pulled
dead babies being pulled out of rubble
by their parents like there is no
there's no human being alive unless
there're a psychopath that doesn't go oh
my God this is awful and this should
stop immediately right but does that
really reflect the nature of reality no
but we also have a significant portion
of the population that cannot think past
their emotions uh and yeah but but that
not withstanding 75% of Americans think
they should go into I think your point
is well taken I wasn't disputing that at
all I think your point point about the
fact that there are different
conversations happening in different
places I think is absolutely right my
point is I think one of the reasons for
that is 75% of Americans are not sitting
and looking at their phone every day for
eight hours watching children being
blown apart and whatever um
so but but but those people who are
interested in in what's going on and are
looking into it they are not able to
think past I have seen one image yeah
dead babies yeah and dead babies are bad
I think we can all say that right I mean
it's
uncontroversial but being confronted
with the nature of war and thinking that
it's horrible I think is a useful thing
in terms of really being reluctant to
get into Wars unless it's absolutely
necessary on the other hand you have to
be able to see past your emotional
visceral reaction in some situations and
say why is this war happening what is
the object of this war who is
responsible for this baby being pulled
out of rubble who is it is it the people
who are going in to kill terrorists or
is it the terrorists who are using the
baby as a human shield how do you run
that moral math how do you get everyone
to run the same moral math I don't think
you can I don't think ever look this
sounds elitist and snobby I don't think
everyone's capable of it and we see
evidence of that every day a lot of
people like to operate solely by emoting
and we now have tools that encourage
them to do so well people can get better
at
consuming video I me we we know we're
bad at this and we should spell out why
people are bad at this so you see a
video of some guy being beaten senseless
by a crowd right and it just it starts
in the middle of the emergency he's
getting you know he's already down and
he's getting punched by and kicked by
five people
um he certainly looks like the victim
right but you have to understand that
you don't know what happened just before
the the clip started right you don't
know so I've seen video like that where
I assumed okay this guy's this is an
atrocity this
guy's obviously the victim and yet I
find out that this guy just stab someone
and he's being subdued by a bunch of
unarmed terrified people right right so
it's it was exactly backwards right and
so we know that even when when things
seem absolutely obvious uh based on the
clip it they could be exactly the the
opposite of what you think and so it is
with scenes from Gaza I mean it's just I
mean this was I remember Rogan at one
point was analyzing I forget who he was
talking to but he had some clip of you
know Five Guys being bombed in in Gaza
as though this were proof of war crimes
I these were obviously unarmed you know
young men and um who are just walking
they seem to be guilty of nothing other
than walking and they got they got you
hit
by you know it looked like um a drone or
um it it was not clear but they were you
know killed um and yet we have no idea
what happened before that before that
clip started right so we we don't know
that whether they just planted an IED
and it was absolutely obvious that they
were combatants and it was totally valid
within the rules of War to Target them
um you just don't know right so like we
have
to uh become better consumers of our own
emotional reactivity in response to
to admittedly disturbing imagery
whatever the the actual accurate
interpretation do you have a method for
that well it's just to to continually
price in my uncertainty about those
kinds of variables you know and but the
truth is my me honestly My Method has
been to spend much less time on social
media I delete I deleted my Twitter
account so now when I look at X I it's
just because someone has driven me there
like you have to see this and then
occasionally I'll look at my feed and I
don't so I have a a a feed on X that's
not following anyone and on on which I
have basically clicked nothing apart
from occasionally getting sent a video
that has brought me there or or a post
that's brought me there and I am I am
amazed at what a digital sewer it is in
terms of what it's what it is try I mean
the algorithm seems to just want me to
to be terrified of the world and
probably racist in at least two
directions right it want it wants to
show me black people beating up white
people and white people beating up black
people you know in classrooms All Over
America like how much this happens who
knows but or security cam video of just
somebody being horribly murdered for
whatever reason and or just accident I
it's just and then you know obviously
there's a you know the occasional cute
cat video but it's just like we we have
built there there's white cats beating
up black
cats but I me just we've built a we've
created a psychological experiment and
enrolled everybody yeah and it's like
it's it's it's analogous to watching
local news all the time I mean you know
I learned 30 years ago that or longer
that I didn't want to spend much time
watching local news cuz it's there's
always just some depressing car Chas or
you know somebody was raped it's like I
don't need to know this it's not
actually going to change what I do and
it's just this
chry regurgitation of human misery and
there's always at
least no matter how small the locality
maybe certainly in any big city any big
city is big enough to always have some
horror that that that can be broadcast
into your brain about which you're going
to do absolutely nothing and it doesn't
make sense for you even be cognizant of
it and yet it's there to depress you and
social media has become this on a global
stage and it's just I mean again it's
not that I want people to be oblivious
to what's happening in the world I mean
I do want to know I do I want to have a
map that fits the territory I want to
know what the rates of violent crime
actually are Etc but those
data uh are communicated very
differently and they often don't track
the the imagery that we we all get in
our heads just by looking at a at a
scroll right I mean you see what this is
what's so distorting about these videos
I mean most most people on the left
certain anyone left of center in America
thinks very likely that we have an
epidemic of lethal police violence
against young black men right if you're
if you you know it's totally rational if
you're you know black parent to have the
talk with your young black son you if he
goes out there he's much more likely to
get killed by the cops than than than
his white friend friends and this is
just you know an intolerable Legacy of
racism in
America as far as these stats go you
know the best understanding of what of
what the Dynamics of actual police
violence and the thousand people every
year thereabouts who get killed by the
cops we know that's right it's
just not what's happening you you're
you're you're you're the likelihood that
you're going to get killed once once you
come into contact with the cops if
you're black is not higher than if
you're white right um but everyone has
seen 12 videos that makes it makes it
seem like they're these lunatic cops
performing lynchings you know and they
haven't seen the analogous the the
analogous and in fact more numerous
cases where white people have unarmed
white people have been killed by cops
you know uh once again disgracefully um
in many cases and but the actual stats
are just show you how infrequent it is
that an unarmed person gets of any color
gets killed by the cops in America it's
just not happening very often I mean
it's it's around you know it's maybe 40
people a year um a majority of whom are
not black and um you know of the
thousand and among even though among
those unarmed people who get killed by
cops most of them are not peacefully you
most of them are trying to kill the cops
they're wrestling with the cops they're
trying to get the gun out of the cops
hands um it's not like the cops are
routinely killing non violent people in
America and yet we have a kind of
pornography of racial grievance that has
is continually
advertising the a different story to us
and um again
so given the Dynamics of social
media that is always going to Prevail I
mean that's just like because of the
just the algorithmic incentive to spread
the the outrage other than some The
Pursuit Of Truth which I think the point
you were just making is actually a very
good example of where the genuine
Pursuit Of Truth and context you know in
Russia we there's a Russian saying
everything is understood in comparison
right and what you're talking about is a
very good example of where actually
finding out what the data is not only is
useful but it actually can change your
life especially if you're a young black
man because you are then less likely to
go into that police interaction with the
expectation that you will be killed
which means you're going to act
differently which means that you're
probably less likely to be killed as a
result right knowing that context
knowing the what the statistics are is
going to inform you to behave in a
different way and this is what I was
going to make I'm actually really
reluctant to get involved in the Gaza
conversation Beyond some basic obvious
things just because I don't know enough
about it um but I think one of the uh
critical things in analyzing this
conversation like many others
is the the importance of
history
and that's the context in which we
really human beings operate in the
history of human beings uh Thomas sa who
you know I I pretty much worship at this
point he's written extensively about uh
the idea that the best way to understand
what people are likely to do in the
future is to look at what they've done
in the past and you can slice that a
hundred different ways if if you find
clay tablets from ancient Egypt they're
going to be likely basically discussing
the same things that that human beings
discuss now you know my son doesn't you
know a mother complaining about her son
not being around and and all this other
human stuff so when when we looking at
the conflict and Gaza I only bring it up
because we've been talking about it I've
been trying to say to people well if we
are going to talk about this seriously
let's look at previous situations in
which conflicts of this nature have
broken out one for one reason or another
and how has that happened people give
the example of fujan fujan I think
Coleman Hughes actually did a very good
job with Joe talking about this on his
podcast but beyond that whether it's the
the the Japan at the end of World War II
whether it's what happened in Germany at
the end of World War II whether it's
previous situations in which uh a group
of people have attacked another people
and then lost that fight how does that
normally go how how how have we treated
this in history that gives you a context
that is very useful for
offsetting the visceral experience you
have when you're confronted with the
reality of War which is horrific so in
that sense as you know my big concern
about the direction of the West is is
that we are becoming divorced from our
history on so many different ways and we
are being sold a bunch of lies about how
we got here and Who We Are and that's
just one tiny sliver of that one tiny
sliver so the fact that the overwhelming
majority of people in our societies and
I include to some extent myself on this
uh either uneducated or miseducated
about history uh is a lot of the reason
we are where we are because that context
gives you the ability
to uh to be the guy who doesn't get
killed by the cops effectively right
that context that truth is how you know
that you need to act in a particular way
to to get the best possible outcome in
that situation um which is why I'm just
always talking about the need to teach
kids history and contextualized this is
one of the things I personally was very
fortunate to get uh from what was
actually a reasonably good Soviet
education system and also my parents you
know all right there's a an idea that's
under the surface of all this that I
think Sam ties back to what you were
talking about that social media deranges
people because you're seeing things that
aren't necessarily true but cognitive
biases like recency bias I've seen a
bunch of these attacks and so my mental
model just begins to map to the things
that I've seen and so this must be true
also Maps what you're talking about
where people are steering by not what
gives them predictive validity of future
action but instead how do I make sense
of the way that I feel and if they're
making sense of oh I see this thing and
I don't like the way that it makes me
feel it must be wrong and here is the
post Hawk explanation of why the baby
being pulled from the rubble is wrong
not putting it into a historical context
or context of what war is or anything
like that just I have a feeling this
feeling is not good therefore this is
bad and I need to give some
rationalization all right so you put
that in the social media blender and now
all of a sudden I I don't know which way
is up anymore and I just react to my
feelings the reason I think this
question is so important is when people
don't have a method by which they
determine the truth which is uh a
without predictive validity you will not
end up running the same mathematics so
everyone needs to agree on what the
outcome is that we desire and then they
have to run the scientific method that
that to me is the only way that these
deranging problems of our current uh
moment of social media plus we haven't
even talked about AI but those two
things put together I think are going to
be maximum uh in terms of their impact
on derangement because it it gives
everybody an N of one frame of reference
and there have been a couple times where
you guys have said things that I have
seen the public light you both up for
because they just disagree so violently
and really what would be an example with
me um y God I may I may not have noticed
it because I really don't give a
but yeah so uh you were saying something
about the Israel Palestine conflict and
the reason that people think that it's
bad that war is bad and this has to stop
but I think the reality is there's
actually two things going on the moment
you bring up Israel Palestine if you're
you're talking about anything other than
the following two narratives you're not
talking about the reality of why people
respond the way they respond number one
is the norm felstein stance which nobody
just uh addresses him headon he does not
believe Israel should exist as a state
period end of story every word he says
after that is predicated on Israel
should not exist as a state and if
you're approaching him anyway and people
that believe what he believes without
simply debating whether Israel has a
right to exist you're arguing about the
Tea he never going to agree with you
he's just going to start yelling and
shouting because he has to square he's
an example of one of these phds that we
need not invite to the conference we
actually just had we actually just had
him on and we had a hour and a half of
look uh actually very useful uh I think
it's very useful this is why I I we will
continue to have some of these people on
the show because if these are people to
whom a lot of other people are listening
you have to hear what they have to say
but but that's that's self reinforcing
sorry let me just finish the point you
have to a hear what they have to say and
then see the method that people have
increasingly become addicted to is the
idea that the way to get to the truth is
to quote unquote destroy someone with
facts and logic in a debate I believe
quite often uh and this is what we try
to do on the show uh the the way to do
that is to have a conversation and just
go okay let's let's hear what you have
to say and let's ask you some probing
questions and then people can see for
them M themselves the cognitive flaws
and biases and what you're saying for
example in our conversation with him and
Bassam USF who are two of the big uh
anti-israel Pro Palestine uh Talking
Heads uh it became very clear that
neither of them had ever thought about
how this might be
resolved that's a useful piece of
information to know when you're
listening to these people right uh
another thing you know with Norman for
example we spent the first 20 minutes
hearing his family story
and he talked about how you know his
parents were stalinists and he thought
that was a bit extreme so he's just a
maist you know that's a helpful piece of
information wait was he being serious
yeah that wasn't tongue and cheek he's a
maist yeah okay he's a maist I would
love to ask followup question do do you
do do I need to then have a debate with
Norman finlin to destroy the idea of
maoism or is it sufficient for most
people to go okay that's the perspective
from which she's coming I would like to
answer that question directly so so I uh
you guys both have the right to live
your life however you want according to
my value system and so I want you to
thrive in ways as you define it but I
think it is incredibly important that
people that have the ability to parse
through things not based on emotion but
based on predictive validity towards an
agreed upon outcome that is noble and
honorable and therefore this was
something you um brought up earlier and
I wanted to address which is I would
request of people that are like the two
of you that you address any problem that
gains sufficient momentum in culture and
so it can't be derived based on I think
this person is a good faith actor it
just can't it has to be derived around
but this idea is gaining sufficient
cultural momentum and therefore if I
choose to step into that that into the
arena of helping people make sense of
the world I'm going to address these
ideas obviously that's an ask that I
have no right to make of anybody but
that's what want from people that I see
as uniquely capable now I have a frame
of reference where I look at human
beings as flesh- based Ai and I just
want to point the Constantin flesh based
AI at a given problem and see how he
addresses it I want to point the Sam
flesh based AI at a given problem and
see how he handles it now that's brought
a ton of pain and suffering into both of
your lives I get that I don't know why
you keep saying that it yours Sam's it
certainly suffering on his podcast
if you like that clip check out the full
powerful episode here and I'll see you
there