Kind: captions
Language: en
it's the same for every individual same
for every company same and you if you
understand this then you understand
there well there are three
things um the first
is look at your income your
expenses and your
savings and then do a stress
test so that you get yourself secure
if you were to lose your income or if
the income were to fall Beyond a certain
level and you play that out maybe that's
means you go get unemployment insurance
but or
whatever how long can you live in an
acceptable
lifestyle and do you have a
savings that is adequate for that okay
so what you do is you
calculate if I lived in a simpler
lifestyle and I had this amount of
earnings um how many months how many
months or years Could I Live acceptably
then you look at your what what do you
put the money in what do you save in
don't you worry though that there is a a
level of financial literacy so you're
you're saying the basics right and
there's no question like get your
blocking and tackling right before you
start trying to get fancy but uh Ray I
have legitimately started losing sleep
over like how we help the average person
through this um I'm not a guy I don't
lose sleep over much but when I stop and
think about most people I think the stat
is the average American if they're hit
with a surprise $500 bill um they're not
able to make it they are living month-to
month you've got 30 plus million people
now um out of work it's you know
it trying to figure out like um
definitely Basics right uh you've got
make sure that you're spending lesson
you make austerity first cut cut cut get
your expenses down to as low as I can
100% um what what I'm hoping for is that
there's um I don't know there's
something that we can see in in this
kind of transition where either you've
got a new Rising power um and there's
opportunity
with that I I'm trying to find that sort
of Ray of Hope for people of what they
can do to be proactive either to
generate more income if they've lost
their income or um to be more proactive
in their 401K I think about personal
finance way I think about health and
right now I worry that people are
Outsourcing everything to somebody else
to the government they're they have a
wait and see approach um and what I'm
desperately trying to figure out for
myself is what level of proactiveness of
learning about their health they can do
to try to weather this storm because
short of just saving um and cutting
expenses and maybe that's it maybe there
there isn't any more that they can do
but I guess that's my direct question is
there something uh I mean you you know
the parts right it's it's income
expenses and
savings okay now you can go get the
money maybe the money money comes in and
you say okay my unemployment benefits
are going to be this or my this is but
um those are the parts then the issue is
uh how clever are you at uh dealing with
those parts let me ask it another way
then who who should they be voting for
like when you talk about a beautiful
delever Jing which one you should
probably um Define that so you you've
looked at this stuff so many times it's
really really quite breathtaking um that
there are ways to do this well there are
ways to do this poorly uh you know we're
in an election year I consider myself
like the most apolitical human being on
the planet but when I stop and think
about okay well if I'm an average person
and let's say that I'm really doing my
best I'm doing the blocking and tackling
I'm saving what I can save I've cut my
expenses back I'm I'm earning you know
what I can let's hope that they either
have kept their job or were able to
quickly get another job um how should
they be thinking like what are what is
the right way to go through this
deleveraging at a um a political level
maybe politics isn't the right word but
like at a higher
level well I I'm you know I don't know
what you want me to say I think that uh
each person should understand there's a
certain level of basic understanding
first take care of yourself and then you
know you hope that you have uh smart
people who I think will most important
thing is that they're smart in being
able to engineer an economy that will in
increase the size of the pie as well as
divide the pi well and then also um that
this is done in a non-antagonistic
way um smart people working together in
a bipartisan way have the capacity of
managing this well so if I was giving
political advice and that's not what I
do but if I was giving political advice
the most important thing I think is um
who who can do this who's got the
intelligence to do the engineering plus
to do it um in a manner that we are not
fighting with each other that what
history has shown us is that when things
get difficult people get stressed and
they get they can get angry and they
could all fight with each other and that
produces the next leg of a terrible
economy because the economy won't work
efficiently if people are fighting with
each other the system doesn't work well
so one would have to say um you know
who's going to bring the country
together behind sensible I would say
bipartisan programs because if you don't
have that then you have a form of
Revolution and you don't have good
management and that's the greatest risk
I would say politically so looking at
the Historical perspective um who has
done this well and then what have been M
Stakes that have led to literal
Revolution when you say who has done it
well what do you mean um what countries
or what periods of time has going
through this kind of Crisis been managed
well so that we come out the other side
with as little sort of um pain and
suffering as possible well an example of
well would be the differences in um the
way Roosevelt did it um so again 1929 to
32 interest rates hit zero they print
money we had a large wealth Gap and then
they sat down and they figured out how
do we keep it orderly and how do we
change the
circumstances with um whether it's taxes
or um how do you reorganize it so that
the system works well there is a risk
also at the same time because the world
is going through that there's a risk of
conflict so in Germany Hitler came in
power in
1933 and he came in power in 1933
because there was a lot of internal
fighting as to to try to bring produce
order because the everybody the left and
the right you know the Communists and
the fascists and they're all fighting
about wealth because everybody's
fighting about wealth when you have a
downturn and then they need the they
were democracies four democracies
existed then that chose not to be
democracies because they became so
disorderly that they wanted some strong
leader to take charge and run the
country and then of course we had a
bunch of strong those types of leaders
and then they had a war that's how World
War II happened so when you look at that
uh you know th that's kind of the
political landscape but back to the
average man in terms of his finances I
would say the important thing is those
three elements to have a plan and maybe
to have a plan with uh both your family
you know um how do you get
down uh when things got tough and and
you know and then you have to look at um
you know what happens in policy well
policy um is a depends on the person
some people would understand more about
policy than other people if if you know
so it
depends on uh what they should do
depends on on what they're able to do
well as we um sort of take step back and
start taking a longer review of this
what's the role that you see education
playing in I've sort of when I grew up
it was just assumed I was going to go to
college um I did go to college and I
would have for a very long time told
everybody they should be going to
college now I've sort of cooled off on
that in terms of the debt that people
are getting into I know you and your
wife are working a lot in the school
system there and Connecticut um how do
you how do you think about that what's
the importance of Education in you know
when when we start thinking about
protecting um successive Generations how
much of that comes down to
education uh
education is is the most important thing
um I I was um raised with a very modest
economic background my dad was a jazz
musician my mom was a stay-at-home mom
um and but I was lucky to have uh
parents who cared for me and I went to a
public school and I got a good education
and I came out to a world of equal
opportunity and I believe that those are
fundamental
Necessities that um that you have to
know how to have an education of you
know facts like um you have to know how
to read WR and arithmetic but you also
um have to know how to behave well with
others to be a good citizen operate in a
civil way to be able then to go into
jobs and that those that
education um can be um anything that
works I think the big thing is you know
three big things on on what I think work
should be
um um make your work and your passion
the same thing and make it economic
if if if it works that you love your
work you'll probably be better at your
work um and then you find the um so you
you want those things and then the E
then there's the economics of it and so
it could be anything from learning um
trades um um whatever it may be
education certainly does not have to be
College college is uh
overemphasized and um having a a good
productive career when I watch the these
remarkable people who are on the front
lines of dealing with this virus
situation and I look at them the great
some of the greatest people are the
people who have the capabilities of
doing certain things that are not have
nothing to do with going to college and
they're on the front lines and they're
contributing a lot and so we H uh so in
education
and civility but that means that there
has to be equal opportunity so yes what
my wife and I have done um is um we're
particularly
um um heartbroken or
disenchanted with um poverty
affecting um children in and high school
CH students having the equal opportunity
of education so our particular focus in
Connecticut um we made a a donation a
large donation $100 million donation to
the state of Connecticut for them to
match um and are working to get those um
students uh through high school and but
it could be trade school um and into
jobs and to be able to be uh productive
so what you look at all
societies and these are the things that
matter most the society um becomes a
fairer society when there's equal
opportunity for
education and also it becomes a more
productive Society because the
opportunities when extended throughout
the whole population means that you get
more people on the basis of Merit right
now that system is not operating in a
good effective way for example people in
the top 40% of income will spend about
five times as much money on their
children's education than those in the
bottom 60% and that's not that's that's
neither Fair nor productive so I think
that these types of questions are going
to have to be examined by policy makers
in a bipartisan way as we go through
this but yes in answer to your question
you know it really starts with good
total education the good raising of
children in terms of their actual formal
education and their informal education
and then going out and having
environment of equal
opportunity so one thing that I know you
have leveraged to tremendous effect and
this is the very thing I took from
principles that changed my life is um to
stress test your ideas to put them out
there to ask how do I know I'm right so
like I said i' I've really been losing
sleep over how I can be most helpful in
um helping people navigate um all of
happening and and I have come to a
conclusion that could be pure delusion
and I would love to know what you think
it's along the lines of Education which
is why I was asking about that so my
obsession is skill acquisition I think
that so the advice that I've been giving
to people if you've lost your job or not
like we have spent probably the last 10
years maybe more in an employes Market
they've really had the election they've
been able to put a lot of pressure on
employers and now you're seeing a flip
and you're seeing this is going to be an
employer Market um there's going to be a
lot of people obviously there's north of
30 million now it's going to be a lot of
people looking for work and my thing is
if you want to get your ideal job you
want to make your passion something that
you're able to pursue you've got to be
able to outperform other people and I
would say the same thing to a kid that's
coming up somebody that's about to
graduate whatever like you've got to be
better than the next person you've got
to build a skill set that allows you to
Excel and my thing is like you you are
living proof of one simple thing if you
can outperform people there really is no
cap to how far you can go you put your
money where your mouth is when it comes
to an investment strategy obviously with
Bridgewater um you guys have just
outperformed people it's really been
quite extraordinary
and yes people need to save yes they
need to um focus on where uh you know
they're getting their income from um
they need to practice austerity measures
all of that but ultimately people can
Propel themselves forward if they're out
there learning growing getting better
pushing I would go so far as to say even
being aggressive to try to continue to
move up um but it comes down to
recognizing that skills have utility
they actually let you do something they
let you out invest somebody they let you
build a better house or a better Bridge
um and so what I want to see people do
through this time I I just think most
people will be obliterated mentally
they're going to get scared they're
going to panic they're not going to be
able to think clearly and they won't put
themselves on a path to excel um so
wonder what what am I missing there
because I know that people don't that is
not a popular thing to say right now
that's something that I get a lot of
negative feedback from people it's like
basically pull yourself up by your
bootstraps so I'd love to understand
like where the flaw is in that thinking
um where when you talk about the um they
not being equal
opportunity one what can people do to
write that ship at a personal level I
get I get at the higher up systemic the
way that we address it through policy
and things like that but at a personal
level is there is there something people
can
do well I think you're exactly right I
think that uh that uh though is short of
specifics and um you know that
particular action and the question is um
who can help them so yes um if they're
Wily and hardworking and clever enough
they still
need triangulation and help to find out
where is the training program what is
that skill they H they can't do it alone
they have to do it with the help I um
and I would recommend you know I did two
30 minute videos one is principles for
Success at 30 minute YouTube video and
it's about an approach to life that a
lot of of people something like 14 I
don't know a lot of people have seen
this and I would say um it's worth your
30 minutes I think in terms an approach
to life and then there's also if you're
interested in the economy I did a a 30
minute video how the economic machine
works and in 30 minutes and that had a
lot of views more 14 million I think and
it was liked so um I can't tell them in
this very brief interview how we're
going to exactly who will get them that
training and that capability but I think
you're right skill that you
love sell that sells is what you need
now you go to each person has their own
particular way of possibly getting that
to some case it might be a um start low
in an organization and work your way up
to some cases it may be a government
training program to some CA in some
cases it may be a relative or a friend
who can get you going and so on uh as I
said one of my main principles is
there's always a path out
there you just don't happen to see the
path now so you have to find the PATH if
you find that path and you can't find it
alone the way you find that path is to
speak to other people get many ideas by
other people and then you know you have
to keep yourself trial and error you got
to keep at it like when you're getting a
job or getting a skill it's a lot of
trying and so that requires a certain
amount of discipline and if you have a
discipline problem get help with a
discipline problem have somebody kick
you out of bed or whatever it is that um
you can get there there is a path you
just don't see the right path at the
moment I look at three major forces that
are happening
now um haven't happened in our life
times um but have happened many times in
history and those three major forces are
the
creation of a lot of debt and the
printing of a lot of money to buy that
debt because particularly because the
government is running large
deficits and so they don't have enough
money so that government has to print
that money so that creation of all of
that that debt and its financial
implications and its economic
implications is one force the second
force is um the internal conflict the
amount of conflict that's internally
largely due to the largest wealth gaps
that we've had since the 30s they
um and that produces populism of the
left and the right particularly when
there are financial difficulties the
third
Force um is the
rising uh Power the um challenging the
existing power um largely in the form of
uh China and to some extent Russia um so
it's called the great power conflict
because in 19
45 you know there's there's the cycle
you have a war then after a war you have
winners and the winners determine the
rules of the game and then there's this
evolution of others becoming more
competitive and then you have a conflict
again um for who's in control so we have
that Dynamic taking place so those three
influences the
financial
the internal conflict
external
conflict uh influences or having a
dominant um influence I learned before
that when I was
surprised um often it was because of
things that hadn't happened in my
lifetime before but happened in history
because of that reason I went back and
uh studied history the last 500 years on
these Cycles there are big cycles that
last about 75 years give or take about
50 years and of Rises and declines and I
put that out because I think it's so
important people understand that I put
it out in a book called The Changing
World Order and in a free video calling
the changing world order so when we look
at each one of those they're important I
also learned in studying history that
there were two other influences that
were very big and you could see them uh
the first was Acts of nature such as
droughts floods and pandemics the
changes over time in uh the evolution
over time of people's learning and the
Technologies they make so I'd say there
are the really five big influences that
drive everything and they are the money
and debt economic influence the internal
conflict the external conflict the
nature
uh
influence um and the let's call it the
technology influence so as we go now
into this uh it's important again um I
put it out as a free video on YouTube so
that people could see it easily and um
when we get into whatever we're going to
talk about it'll be certainly in the
context of those things and since they
each affect each other it produces what
I call the big S
the animation that you put out in
conjunction with your book uh principles
for dealing with a changing World Order
have influence my thinking around this
moment more than anyone or anything else
it it makes it seem so uh predictable
from a historical perspective when you
look at that big cycle and you see how
it repeats and so as you went through
the last 500 years one thing that you
make very clear in the book is that the
the rise and fall Empires the rise and
fall of a reserve currency they go in
this six cycle Trend and the uh the part
that I always find unnerving is phase
six is basically war and collapse and so
you have that previously dominant power
loses its position loses its status as a
reserve currency and it loses it for
pretty predictable reasons in the three
forces that you were talking about in
the beginning discounting the the fourth
Force which I don't think in every cycle
you always had and you correct me if I'm
wrong but you didn't always have a
pandemic or anything like that but the
fact that we're living in a moment right
now where we have all of them and so
we've got you know not only is is it a
moment of massive technological
disruption right now good and bad but
we've got the money printing uh the the
meme on the Internet is money printer go
Burr uh so we've got you know printing
because of covid we've got printing uh
coming off of printing because of the
2008 collapse um and now we're again
seeing this cycle repeat itself so I've
heard you say that it that we're in
somewhere in Phase five which is as the
Empire begins to decline as you have a
rising superpower as the debt bubble is
getting out of control with that
perspective was what happened with the
svb bank collapse was that something you
knew okay something like that is coming
or was that a surprise to you no I it's
it was it was obvious um look um if just
let's I want to talk about the mechanics
really I'm so eager to pass along an
understanding of the mechanics so people
themselves can do the
analysis um so one man's debts or
another man's
assets um okay so what happened
the government had to sell a lot of
debt and when it sold a lot of debt
there were a lot of entities that bought
a lot of bonds government
bonds um and money was very easy which
meant that short-term interest rates
were very low um and money was almost
being it was actually being given away
because they had interest only loans and
interest rates were less than 1% and you
didn't have to pay back principal so you
can go get money and so that
created um a lot of debt and it
created a lot of um buying of government
bonds so what happened to um Silicon
Valley Bank um is uh what happened to
what happened to many many entities
around the world not just Banks they um
what what does a bank do a bank takes in
deposits typically or dead in some way
and then it buys that it can do that in
the form of making a loan or it could do
that in the form of buying a Government
Bond buying debt and then when interest
rates went up the value of that debt
went down
the money they had to give to
depositors became more and more
expensive and also depositors wanting
them to be
competitive looked at money market rates
or other rates and withdrew money from
the bank to because they had better uses
okay so what that that leave them with
it's a banking problem that has happened
literally for thousands of years that um
that what they do is the depositors you
know want their money back and they're
holding assets that are in this case
have gone down in value so they're broke
let let me let me put a fine point on
that sorry before you move on I don't
know that people really understand this
is is this a um it seems to be a
necessary result of fractional Reserve
banking meaning that if you deposit $10
to me I own only need to keep and I
think this is actually accurate I only
need to keep a dollar and so the other
$9 I can actually put to work in terms
of loans to other people or Investments
and that puts us in a position where
okay you gave technically you're giving
the bank a loan a deposit isn't just oh
my money is in a vault somewhere I've
given the bank a loan the bank is going
to go do things with that a varying
degrees of risk in the case of svb they
thought I'm doing the least risky thing
which is I'm buying government debt the
government is going to back it the
government especially the US government
can actually print money if they had to
to cover that which they did in this
case but if a lot of people go to the
bank at the same time known as a bank
run and say I want all of my money the
bank goes whoa whoa whoa I don't have
that money and so I have all these
assets and as long as those assets
remain liquid and I can liquidate them
in a timely fashion then sure as long as
the requests for people's deposits back
are coming at at a reasonable rate all
is well but when you get a lot of people
coming at once and you have the the
Investments that they've made have gone
down in value now you get a perfect
storm exactly I think you said it very
well um you're allowed to be in the
business let's call it 1110th it's
actually less than on10th is your money
whoa uh but let's call it one10 you um
you have a certain amount of money up
they give you the deposits you invest
the money within these General
guidelines so for example government
bonds are safe from default so you buy
the government bonds you think you're
making a spread and then what happens is
the government bonds go down in value at
the same time as the People Say Hey I
want to go take my money and put it
someplace else so you don't have enough
money and Central Banking works like
that except the government can print the
money so the risk and when it's the
government is not that you won't get the
money back un Len like in this
particular case for a bank it goes down
in value so you ain't going to get that
back you're going to sell it but anyway
you described it very well you what what
happens for the economy as a whole is
then they print the money because they
don't want defaults there's a tolerable
amount of default and then you get past
a tolerable amount of defaults and it
just crushes everything and so they
print the money okay and so this thing
with the bank is not a Silicon Valley
Bank is alone issue it's not a banking
issue it is a global issue in terms of
all around the world all sorts of
entities Pension funds um um insurance
companies um all around the world uh
there was a lot of the buying of these
government bonds which have gone down in
value and if you then take it and you
say What's the value of those those have
gone down and the cost of money is high
and so the world is leverage long okay
La meaning they own
stuff and they Bor bed money to own it
and it's going down in value how
nightmarish does that scenario become so
you've got your money locked up in
something for a long time but it's
declining in value is this like a
classic moment where we can look at this
big cycle and go oh we know where this
goes like the the music has stopped
everybody or no it it's a bit harder to
judge than that I think it's pretty easy
to judge on a um you know an
intermediate or longer term basis
because there there's a choice right um
the the predominant the big issue is you
know okay the government can come in and
print the money and give money to
anybody they want to give money to but
when they do that that typically
devalues the
money so if think about it if you're
holding a bond you know you got a claim
on
money uh but the claims are too much
so um so one way or
another you're either not going to get
back that money in
full or you're going to um get back
money that's worth less because they
print the
money I've never heard anybody say it
like that so let me just make sure that
I understood that uh the government has
effectively issued too many bonds so
people have they're holding a lot of
companies and a lot of other things too
okay very good point so we're not just
buying the bonds from the government
we're buying corporate bonds municipal
bonds like anybody that wants to put
some debt out into the market uh
government of course in fact I'm
actually curious uh what's the ratio
roughly if you know this between
corporate debt and government debt well
right now I I couldn't give you the uh
you know number number exact number off
my top of my head but there's
um um household debt
um corporate debt and government debt
yeah that that's terrifying so uh even
if you took every dollar that our entire
country makes I think it it's true
globally if you took every dollar that
we made globally and tried to pay off
the debt you wouldn't be able to do
it well that's right but it's not
expected to pay it off in a year I want
to go back to my main point to make this
clear if you're holding that
debt um you are
holding something that will money will
come
back uh let's say if the and the
government can print the
money but if the money's hard if that's
going to be good money that's coming
back it's going to be hard for those
entities to pay back because it's a lot
relative to their income and cash flows
to pay
it and that means that the default risk
Rises however
because you don't you're holding that it
it means that the debt will be bad
one way or another it's either bad
because they don't pay it it needs a
haircut for them to pay it or because
they do pay it with money that is going
to be printed to come back so when you
look at that you're um and that problem
occurs when there's a lot of debt assets
and lot of debt liabilities so think of
it this way just want to make this clear
when there was the position that
interest rates got a lot below the
inflation
rate you're losing buying
power there's no good reason to own
that um and there's a change in
Psychology because um before or there
was
um I own bonds the bonds go up in value
as interest rates go
down so I'm getting a price
appreciation even though I'm getting you
know let's say a low interest rate but
inflation isn't a problem until it's a
problem then when it's a problem because
they print so much money and they put it
out
then inflation goes up and a light bulb
goes off that light bulb used to
be okay how much am I
earning okay I'm not earning much but
it's okay the price of the bond or
whatever's gone up and but heway I'm
holding it and it's safe and then people
realize it's not
safe because I'm losing money to
inflation so now you have the central
Bank wanting to rectify that
imbalance by you know real interest
rates were minus
1.7% meaning that inflation was chipping
away at your buying power yes if I look
at inflation index bonds as an
indicator um or other indicators I'm
losing percentage points to inflation by
holding that Bond and then when they and
and people realize that well you don't
want to do that and then the other side
of it was you want to buy buy and borrow
and buy stuff
because you know money's free so
companies borrow and buy stuff and
individuals B Bor buy houses because it
interest only loans on the houses I mean
like okay I can buy a house I can buy an
apartment and so but that creates the
imbalance where it's
terrible to be a
lender um and a creditor and it's good
to be a
borrower and and do that so that
imbalance takes place it produces
inflation and then when it produces
inflation and so on and then you you I
then you say I don't want to own these
things anymore and then and also um the
Federal Reserve says I better fight
inflation they change things and so by
raising interest rates to levels in
which it goes from minus
1.7% in inflation index bonds to plus
1.7% and it makes it um and it raises um
the short-term interest rates you know
real interest rates much
higher then lo and behold all the people
who did all those things get hurt okay
they borrowed they bought bought the
bonds they bought all of those things
and all of those debt
instruments um and also companies look
at the companies that are
affected because yields got so
low
um tech companies and others those who
have a
dream I'm going they don't have to
necessarily make profits
they're selling a dream and the money's
got to be invested and so you
see all of that change radically when
those that tightening of monetary policy
so now you sit there and have a low so
when you're looking at the big picture
you look at you've got it's think of it
as all like banking you're holding all
these Financial
assets what is the value of a financi
IAL asset it has no intrinsic value its
only value is what it can buy but there
are many many more financial assets out
there the most Financial assets out
there that there's ever been relative to
the value of stuff to
buy there's too many claims out there
it's it's like um musical
chairs okay if everybody said say oh
wait a second let get let me get my
stuff let me convert my debt assets you
know I wanna I want to get my stuff I
want to get real stuff um that's that's
a real problem and so that's the global
picture on on the first of those five
influences right the fact that it's
happening with the other
influences is very important because
they affect each other so this financial
picture by the way is the same as in the
1930 to 45 period and the same as they
were throughout history yeah for people
that don't know that's World War II just
to uh it started with a financial
crisis that then caused internal
conflict what do we do about the
financial crisis the populism of the
left and populism of the right in this
internal fighting and four countries
that were democracies chose not to be
democracies because of the conflicts
that were existing the PO um and those
countries were uh um Germany uh Italy uh
Spain and Japan because there's a lot of
internal conflict over wealth
and when you have that and so that
creates a lot of internal disorder lot
of fighting okay in in some ways almost
Civil War forms everywhere some form of
Civil War who wins the internal war and
of course that happens also at the same
time as there's the external conflict
first of all everybody's fighting over
resources you have populists come to
power and the populists are not
compromisers the way democracies work
yeah let's fight I'm going to fight for
you this is don't worry I'm not in the
middle I'm not going to compromise and
you've got to pick a side and so the
moderates um there's no place for
moderates you've got to pick a side and
the sides are um let's say internally in
the C country the left and the right and
externally you know on um I don't know
the Americans and the Chinese or the
American okay and you got to pick a side
and
fight and so that becomes the dynamic
that is these periods of time and these
periods of time have typically lasted
about 10 to 15
years and you and they have various
symptoms to it so in the book I I write
out yeah there's like a disease like a
cancer um you see stage 1 2 3 4 if you
have these things you could look at it
and you could diagnose and you see it
moving from stage one to two to three to
four to five and to six you could see
that taking place and each time you come
closer to um a a bad set of
circumstances bad financial
circumstances and bad fighting over
things
yeah so this is where um this gets
really breathtaking so you've talked a
lot about this idea that there are
things you even mentioned at the
beginning of this episode there are
things that have not happened in our
lifetime but they happened over and over
and over and so it is very easy for me
as somebody born in the 70s to think oh
War isn't a thing that happens in the US
it's something that happens elsewhere
populism isn't something that happens in
the US is something that happens
elsewhere but it it does happen uh we're
seeing it ratchet up right now
because of that um I heard you once say
and I think this is really important for
people to understand about the the
internal conflict in fact you and I
bumped into each other in Dubai and I
was saying you know Ry as given
everything that's going on how do I
think how do I think about where to live
whatever and you said Tom the only thing
that matters is how people are with each
other and for whatever reason it really
hit me that time what you meant by that
and I
understood the the importance of the
this conflict and what I heard you say
previously is that in the French
Revolution it was the moderates that got
the guillotine it's like you you are
forced because I consider myself very
Centrist in nature and you find yourself
as things escalate being forced to take
aide which the French Revolution one
gave me pause I was like H not not how I
would want to end up as a moderate um
really fast going back to the the this
is a global moment it's a predictable
part of the process that stage five the
debt is too much interest rates are now
going up to keep inflation from running
away we printed money like crazy you've
got the rise and conflict is is the when
we printed money when the FED printed
money to back stop uh the what looked
like it was going to be a potential
contagion from svb obviously I think
there were five banks that ended up
failing um is this now contained or is
is what the FED did just going to
Forstall something that's
inevitable um The Dominoes are uh
beginning to fall I mean okay you
know you know what the next dominoes are
and you can imagine the the nymos so for
example
[Music]
um they're not going to buy the debt and
a lot of them are not
those who are who bought the debt and
have too much debt and have debt
losses um on government debt are not
going to buy that b buy more of that
debt for example and therefore when the
government uh sells more of the
debt um there's not going to be an
adequate number of buyers for that
debt uh you know that um those who are
are hurting because they have those
losses um won't make loans and a lot of
those loan loans went to real estate
particularly commercial real estate and
you know that for various reasons in
commercial real estate that you're
[Music]
um we don't use it the same way and so
on so you're going to have problems in
commercial real estate you know that
this kind of money was also fi
financing um venture capital and private
Equity um entities that also have cash
flow problems challenges and so you know
that that funding is not going to be
there in the same way you know as a
result of these things that a number of
entities will cut costs and in their
various ways and so depending on the on
that the job market is changing and you
you know you see it for example in tech
jobs and and other you know if you're in
some of those areas that are getting
squeezed and you see the same thing by
and large you know happening
internationally so you can see also that
if you said what is the value of those
assets that are being held that that
that value has gone down a lot and
because it was bought on Leverage as you
described because it is bought on
Leverage there are bad um losses in
different places and then the question
is what are you going to do with those
losses in most cases quite often they're
um you know don't mark them to the
market and meaning don't account for
them and recognize those law
which is kind of let's say hiding those
losses and hoping in time that they'll
just over time you know it'll be fine
but that'll produce a squeeze that'll
produce a problem so I think we know
those things we know those things and um
and that's happening at the same time as
we have um an internal conflict taking
place
such as the presidential election so
we're going to come into the
presidential and and it's not just
presidential election of course it's a
number of um Senators congressmen and so
on um and who are at each other's
throats about this and who are going to
fight with each other okay and and fight
to win um not probably respect the rules
as
much um but fight to win for their side
and that's happening at the same time as
we have um the situation with China most
importantly China and Russia in terms of
the issues in terms of their things to
fight over you know for example even
there's going to be an election in
Taiwan that also have a big bearing on
this whole thing so there's you know
there we know I think pretty much that
we're going to have financial problems
at and economic problems at the same
time as we have this internal fighting
and this and external risky situation
the most important thing I think is to
know your
nature what is your nature what is what
what are your strengths and weaknesses
and your likes and your dislikes and
once you know that then you also think
what are the fits oh I would like that
job and the job could pay me well and
then you figure out okay how do you do
it how do I get to it but they're
different people in different
circumstances so I can't answer them all
now yeah um I agree with you so I want
to go back one thank you for the
feedback that I'm I was being super
vague uh I think that's really helpful
so let's start getting really specific
as much as we can knowing that people
are going to be sort of at very
different places as they're hearing this
um but I think this will be helpful so
one the video that you're talking about
and I'll speak for you and correct me
where I go astray but I watched the
video multiple times think it's really
extraordinary and basically to put it in
a really small nutshell it's basically
go out try things fail a lot learn and
keep progressing and that that's
basically if I remember right you have
like this sort of circular ascent um and
it's from the failing and the learning
that you ultimately make the progress
but if you put your head down you don't
want to see your mistakes you don't want
to see the flaws in your thinking you're
going to trap yourself at a plateau and
you're never going to be able to push
beyond that so you've got to seek out
disconfirming evidence you have to seek
out where you're weak and in fact one
thing I will I sort of disagree I get
what people mean so when you say know
your
nature I will say by
Nature before you get to that second
part let me just on the thing yes it's
the looping and learning from
mistakes but it it another part of it is
the
realization that you don't have to make
your decisions in your own
head okay that when you start to realize
that you know what you're good at and
what you're bad at that a power comes to
you when you start to know uh okay who's
the best person to give me the advice or
who's the best person to lead me through
this or when you start to know that you
can go beyond what you think and your
opinionated so that you can triangulate
I call it triangulate with others so
that you find three people who are
really capable of giving you good advice
who will argue with each other and argue
with you so you can see all sides of it
and you work yourself through so it's
not just your eyes looking for the path
but it's other people's eyes looking
with the path with you knowing that
you're going to have uh successes and
failures but that power of that
collective learning and triangulate well
with humbleness is a great power as you
go through that cycle I love that so um
I'll push that a step further and I will
say this so I'm going to be super blunt
to any body watching right now and Rey
if you think that I'm wrong I trust that
you will jump in no one is coming to
save anybody and that's the hard truth
and if I look at history and even if I
listen which I have listened to
literally every word that you've said on
this subject publicly anyway that this
is just going to suck like there is
going to be a a level of brutality that
most of us have not experienced in our
lives companies are going to go under
people are going to lose our jobs there
are going to be people that are going to
struggle to find their next meal and
what what I want people to understand
understand is just like you just said
you can triangulate you can get people
to help you think through but I want
them to understand that they can do that
in a book at a library they can do that
online if they still have access to the
internet which as of right now even just
going to the library you can get access
to being online you changed my life
before you and I ever met I read your
book I'd never I didn't even know who
you were at that point and somebody just
said hey you've got to read this book
it's got really powerful ideas on trust
and creating these hard principles out
of all your mistakes I read it
immediately recognized that this aligned
with what I call the physics of Being
Human it was so in line with removing my
blind spots getting people acknowledging
that other people are better than me at
certain things and so while I take uh a
little bit of an exception because I I
think that you can't say what you're
good and bad at until you've been at
this for a long time you've been trying
you've been pushing you're learning
you're failing because by Nature I'm
lazy I I am not very bright I think
there are people that can process raw
data far faster faster than I can but
I'm willing to admit when I'm wrong I'm
willing to admit that I don't know I'm
willing to admit when I make a mistake
and because of that because I go in that
cycle that you talk about of making a
mistake looking nakedly at it not
pretending I didn't screw up asking
people to point out my flaws and then
going and now I'm going to have to do
what is called deliberate practice to
get better at that thing and I don't
just ask and I don't think people can
afford right now to just say oh what do
I want to do we for a lot of people this
is going to be maso's hierarchy of needs
you need safety you need security you
need food shelter and I think it's going
to come to that and so recognizing there
are people out there right now that know
more than you you are going to make a
mistake but those mistakes are huge
learning opportunities you have to admit
that you made one you have to seek
people that can help you remove those
blind spots and then you have to put in
the work to get better does any of that
sound crazy no that that's totally
totally right and then um it comes from
Once you have a
fear that you might be
wrong but you have still the
audaciousness and courage to go
forward you're a lot
smarter than the person who thinks they
know there's a there's a quote that's
Jefferson said he who knows he knows not
is closer to the truth
than he whose mind is filled with
falsehoods and and so when you know that
and with and then with your character
and your determination you go forward
the smartest people I know are the most
humble it what the more you learn the
more you realize oh I'm eager to take in
so that's right um but back on your
audience I I think your audience ranges
from um you know there's a wide range
that you have in your audience
and I would say that there are many
people in your audience who can
plan for a simple lifestyle that can be
wonderful sometimes we acquire these
needs that aren't at anywhere near as
big as as we make them out to
be um you know um do you have a bed to
sleep in do you have food to eat do you
have basic health care okay if you start
to think okay what are my needs that I
really need and I'm okay and how can I
make Provisions for those
needs then once you've got that in your
mind you're you're free okay you you can
go beyond that you uh that you may say
listen oh I can do that for a year or
two years or a month or whatever but you
I think we visualized too much the
things that we're used to one of the
good things about this exercise is that
you can bring it brings you back to
basics you can be brought to Basics and
like I'm saying if you have a bed to
sleep in and you've got food and so on
and you have those Basics and and good
relationships with people who care about
you and basic health care so if you
budget for that and you figure how do
you have it maybe it isn't in the
luxurious place you're in maybe it's in
the country and so on once you visualize
that and you get that down in your head
and you say oh I can get that then your
stress will disappear because you as you
visualize that in many ways that's a
happy life it doesn't take a lot to
there's stimulation there's nature
there's relationships these
fundamental one wonderful things the
most important things can be obtained
and so for many of you I think if you
look at that and you budget for that I'm
seeing a number of people um who are um
going
broke H and and I've watched this over
many
years and really it's just the
adjustment process when once they get to
that point where ah you know they have
they get settled they're fine it's the
ambiguity it's the worry it's the stress
so if you do that from the beginning and
you have that that play out in your head
then you know everything from there you
can play with and it's your it's uh
icing on the cake so I want to emphasize
you can budget for that you can look at
that find that scenario find what that
looks like so that you know you've got
it down then you know you're safe once
you've got safe everything
beyond that is luxury I forget who the
Greek um philosopher was maybe you
remember that used to go and he would
sleep on the street like once a month or
something like that in shabby clothing
because he wanted to remind himself oh
this is what I'm afraid of and this
thing isn't that bad I mean I always
found that interesting I take a slightly
different approach I think that is
really powerful and I think that's an
important anchor for people so my wife
and I always say to each other cuz look
we have been dirt poor um and we have
now been very wealthy and All Along The
Journey we've always said to each other
look man if I have you like everything
else I'm good so literally there are
only two things I'm legitimately afraid
of there are things I don't want but
there are two things I am legitimately
afraid of brain damage because then I
cannot build my way back I can't have
the level of fulfillment and joy that I
want and losing my wife because a life
shared to me is like the the highest
importance now having said that I'm
going to set all that aside and I I hope
people heard you and I hope that they
take it to heart to paint a lifestyle
that they can love and it's beautiful
but it's simple um and you know they
don't have all this overhead hanging
over them but I know thyself as you were
saying know what you're good at what
you're not I've always told people if
you want a calm peaceful life I'm not
your guy there there is somebody else
for you to go listen to um and and
follow that Journey if if you want to be
aggressive and you want to build
something that matters to you I don't
need it to be big I don't need it to be
a business whatever I just people that
want want to express themselves they
want to get great they want to become
extraordinary at something that's what
I'm far more interested in and so the
way that I look at it is right now it's
a time where economically the chessboard
has has been flipped over but in in that
moment there's going to be opportunity
created and for people that and this my
central thesis is what I said earlier
Panic is the problem people cannot allow
themselves to panic which is why I like
what you're saying don't don't worry if
you're if you lose everything right as
long as you have the things that really
matter to you and I think that's
important so people don't panic so they
can be clear-headed so they can figure
out where the opportunities are and then
they get the skill set that they need to
capitalize on that opportunity which for
me is like when I and that's why I keep
saying I'm losing sleep over like how do
we get information out so that I've
worked in the inner cities a lot and to
get the information to somebody out
there that they can triangulate right
that that's not a rich upper class
exercise that's a the the information is
out there it's been put in books on a
website in a podcast like the the number
of the world's greatest thinkers right
now that you could be taking this
information from but you have to be
willing to test it you have to be
willing to incorporate it and actually
act on it and do
something so I'm not clear what's your
question about that not so much a
question is I I'm I'm presenting what I
think are ideas that I want people to
run with partly I'm hoping if there is a
flaw in my thinking I want you to point
it out so going back to the need for
specificity so um we're talking about
there isn't equal opportunity because
there's not equal um access to education
which I will take as the core of your
thesis for generationally moving forward
in a useful way
true it's it's a core piece yeah okay so
what I'm saying is I really hope that
that gets addressed and I will certainly
do whatever I can you're obviously uh
doing massive amount there but I also
want people to not wait for someone to
make that change I want them to realize
right now today they can go and learn
something they can educate themselves
you said that it's not about college
it's about getting a skill that lets you
live a fulfilling fulfilling meaningful
life um with a meaningful career and so
I want to see people take action but if
there is a flaw in that thinking I want
to know no no um I don't think of course
I think it's totally right I think uh
them the issue is going to the next step
for the particulars of actually um
helping somebody and um and there's a
combination of not only what they can do
themselves uh but finding others who
will help to take them by the hand and
help to provide that guidance uh to be
able to do that all right finding a job
let's say you know you think okay how do
you find a job so it you have to be
specific uh so we could say great find a
skill okay great but literally how do
you go about finding that skill let's
talk about so one thing you've talked
about from an um investing standpoint is
when this begins to happen and monetary
policy begins to break down uh won't
spend a lot of time describing a fiat
currency but essentially money that
isn't Associated to anything like gold
so you've broken that so you said that
it gets reassociated because gold has
intrinsic value or rocks because it's
used to build things so what is looking
at the Historical perspective what are
things that are safe bets in terms of
this job is going to be here in five
years that this is a a good place to
begin building that skill
set you're talking about the skill set
not the investment I guess yeah skill
set I think that that's maybe more
useful for people if they've just lost
their job and you know they're sort of
just trying to make ends meet at this
point well in terms of um
I I think in terms of any environment
the lessons that we get over and over
again is that you can't be sure what the
next environment and twists and turns
are what you don't know is greater than
anything you do know so if if you were
in the airline business or you were in
the hospitality business um and that was
wonderful and you liked it and
everything else all of a sudden that
changed an important ways so the
important thing more are the more
General abilities in terms of investing
what that means is you need to know how
to diversify well that's the most
important thing in terms of any aspect
in life to know how to deal with what
you don't know is more important than
anything you know because the world is
so much more surprising than you can
really be sure of so in a general s
sense for skills I mean I think
uh and skills are part of what what are
your environment you know find out those
things that um are that are
self-sufficient and maintain uh
flexibility you have to know how to
maintain flexibility and change well if
your career is in one area um you have
to know how this you have to develop the
skill for changing a career and that all
comes down to knowing how to find the
path to know how to triangulate well
with others I want to talk about that
you've done such an extraordinary job
Ray I I truly stand in awe of being able
to go and learn a new area a new um
element to the world when you announced
that you were going to be taking this
historical View and that you were going
to go backwards I mean something like a
thousand years or however far you went
back um how do you begin that research
process so for somebody that's like I
want to invest my time wisely what is
sort of a highlevel way that you
approach learning in general well for
for me um it's a
lot um the alignment of the three things
that I said before what is my
passion um then you know knowing my
nature what is my passion um and can I
align my work to my
passion and then uh does it pay
adequately for me to take care of my
needs and for me um I'm not I do that
because it's my passion um you know and
so when you find your
passion that's aligned
with your work if you can do that but
how do you go about learning something
new so when you started researching the
historical context of what we're going
through now is it picking up books is it
um well for me you see I have been my
nature is I'm extremely
curious okay and I love my
game my game is to learn about the world
interact with the world and bet on it
and I'm very curious so it so it might
be whatever your game is like you've got
a game okay that's why we're you're
interviewing me because that's your
passion that's your game and if you can
line those three things up and you know
your nature because there if you know
your nature you can find your role you
want to find the right role for you
right it's not just go get a job and you
know it might say I would like to be um
an architect well I mean you have to
know your nature and then you can find
your role and so I'm I'm hesitant to say
that what is true for me is true for
somebody else so when you ask me what
you know like okay those are my big
things uh meaningful work and meaningful
relationships like relationships matter
a huge amount to me so if I can have a
work that feeds my
curiosity that um I'm passionate about
and that uh pays me
adequately and you know and I do that uh
with great
people those are the things that feed me
and so you have to know those things
that feed you like I like the big
picture somebody might like uh details
you know that I I you know you have to
pick those things that are for your
nature and and align those things I'm
talking about and how did you
specifically go about starting this big
research project did it start with a
book did it start with reaching out to
historians no no it's I mean in a sense
the journey started out when I was 12
years old and I caded and I um and then
I I took my caddying money and I had
newspaper out and I did a number of
things like that I took my odds and ends
and I uh put it in the stock market and
you know and um and then I and and I got
hooked on the game do you ever think
about the nature of questions in that
process like that so I think it was Tony
Robbins said if you ask a better
question then you're going to get a
better answer and basically questions
are going to control the outcome um do
you focus on what question you're asking
and trying to answer or is it something
completely different than that questions
questions that's right it's the hunger
to know you'll you'll notice it
different in people there will be people
who wow you listen good question good
question good question then there will
be people who can't ask questions that
they're just telling you what they think
think they almost you think they're
acting smart they think they're acting
smart and they're the stupid ones the
Smart Ones are oh question now how do I
go I have to find the answer to the
question next question because the
questions and the power and the pull to
answer those questions and so on is the
thing that drags you forward and it's
excitement do you have a
pull okay what's your
pull you know so um yeah it's all in
questions I think it's all in a journey
life is an a journey an adventure that's
what I'm trying to say in in principles
in uh for success or you can get by the
way principles um if any of these
principles are also principles in action
is an app that's available on the I
store I store and it's free and it has
all of these things in it but so I don't
I you know because we'll we'll separate
um I think people might like that but
you know have to know your pull and then
along the way you're going to have your
adventure and you're going to learn and
then you go through your phases of life
and each phase is different like you
talked about your phase you're in the
middle of your phase in life you talked
about your wife and your relationship
with her okay that is a phase of life
and when you go and by putting it in
perspective it's helpful um in the back
of that book uh principles for Success
there's a life Arc chart and if you know
where you are on that life Arc and you
know what the next 10 years is typically
like and you know what you the people
you care about are on their life arcs
you can almost know what's coming at you
and then you could start to think about
it so so it's at that level of knowing
yourself and knowing how these things
happen over and over again that you can
achieve your path don't be surprised
most life is the is the same things that
happen over and over again you're born
you probably have parents to take take
care of you maybe you have one maybe you
have two but somebody does they teach
you you have your first phase of your
life where you're dependent on them and
you're learning then you come out to
your second phase of your life and then
you're working and other are dependent
on you and then you have that so these
things happen over and over again and
and you just have to know that path and
know how to approach it so really fast
before I let you go you're working on a
new book The New World Order um which I
find very fascinating and you've been
publishing some of the chapters on
LinkedIn um what do you think the odds
are just to to really go back to the
finance side of this um what do you
think the odds are that America Remains
The Reserve Bank and the reserve
currency um and if it's not us who do
you think it will
be uh well all currencies eventually die
and all
Empires eventually diminish in their
other Empires and the question is
essentially the pace of what how that
happens I think that um but for most of
your listeners it's most likely going to
happen in a way that's tolerable if you
can manage it well think about the
decline of the British Empire and you
see if people are living in London and
so on it's not that the world blows up
it's that they have to readapt and they
know how to readapt and so I think that
um it it we're going to come through
more difficult times I think the next
three to five years will be difficult
times in ways that haven't existed in
their lifetime but has existed in
periods of time like the 1930 to 45
period so to be able to adapt well to
invent yourself again to adapt and to
navigate that maybe with a perspective
of knowing what those other times were
like is the best thing to do so the
reason I'm doing that series on LinkedIn
is to help people understand what those
times are like and then uh help them PR
prepared the reason I wrote the book
principles is so that it's it's a
particular approach because the same
things happen over and over again for
basically the same reasons and once you
get that and you have the
self-discipline to know how to play the
game well then you'll be
fine so um one where can people connect
with you right now and then I have one
last question that I want to
ask well I'm um as I say I'm on social
media and um we um and I'll interact
with people on social social media this
the standards you know LinkedIn Twitter
face uh uh Facebook and Instagram by and
large um but the more the most uh
valuable stuff is if you go to uh
principles. comom you can get the whole
pile or or I would say um so of those
places you know so as this next three to
five year um part of the cycle hits us
what is one thing that people can do um
that you know from the historical
perspective will most um insulate them
from the the probably emotional um and
maybe Financial damage whatever you
think is more important well the uh the
things that I thought about some of the
things I mentioned earlier the plan for
uh the worst case scenario and make it
terrific is one of the things when I
read principles it was really
life-changing for me uh it was before
you and I had ever done an interview
because what I liked about the book is
exactly what you're talking about right
now this idea of a bipartisan cabinet so
in my own company I not looking for
people to agree with me I'm looking for
people that will challenge my ideas I'm
looking for disconfirming evidence I
want to get the smartest people that I
can possibly attract to what we're doing
and saying okay we need to disagree with
each other well so that we can identify
the right answer to your earlier Point
you're going to be wrong so often that
if you go into something thinking I'm
infallible uh I'm going to have all the
right answers you're just headed towards
disaster so my question is how do we set
up a situation where people can disagree
well what what is that
structure I think it starts with
worry I I got a principle if you if you
worry you don't have to worry and if you
don't worry you need to worry
because if you worry you'll take care of
the things that you're worrying about to
the best possible way if you don't worry
and you just go head long into these
things you're going to have a real
problem so I think um that you have to
have uh people first realize what does
that picture look like if we don't do
these things if we don't if we don't
have
bipartisan if we don't solve these
problems together if we fight you know
you have to see the clarity of those two
paths and have people choose the good
path you know okay we will figure this
out intelligently to make the best
possible thing to in challeng and
together okay it starts
there it's not a structure where does a
structure come from it comes from people
okay and comes from people having a need
to create a structure in a way of
being so how do we get people to worry
well maybe what we're doing
I mean I think they have to worry at two
levels first enough of us worry
that we uh vote for it or you know we
use our voting and our others to say
let's vote on together and compromise
and smart people doing these kinds of
things um or and that that's worrying
about the society as a
whole and then there's worrying of as an
individual if they don't do those things
how do I take care of myself those are
the two types of worries or two types of
impacts you can have right so I think
they need to think of both of those for
people that aren't familiar with Lincoln
um how much have you looked into him his
idea of a Team of Rivals sounds like
very similar to what you're saying about
having a bipartisan cabinet um is he
somebody that you've looked at or I I
know that I I know a bit about Lincoln I
wouldn't call myself an expert and I
know that about him and yeah and I think
that's really really great yeah so when
uh whether it's at Bridgewater or
elsewhere how do you facilitate people
um disagreeing well because let's say
that you have an intern going against
your Chief investment officer like how
would you do you take that person
seriously they have little to no
experience how do you set that up so
that you don't waste time but at the
same time you get the best ideas first
of all um you explain to people and you
understand
yourself uh how important thoughtful
disagreement is so you remove it you
minimize it from being um something that
people view as a fight and get upset
about you have to change the attitude
about
disagreement so that um you know if
you're in
disagreement um then one of you is
probably wrong how do you know the wrong
person isn't
you and then also you still have to
resolve the disagreement in some way and
so you have to have in place first of
all you know an understanding and an
intellectualization of that so you don't
get
emotionally carried away and thinking
because I disagree that's equivalent to
a fight okay so you have to change that
psychology and then once you do that
then you have to have protocols in place
for doing that now you know uh in in my
book you know uh principles life at work
and in the work part of principles I've
outlined those things those techniques
that can be done um repeatedly um so you
have to have a system for that and you
know and so let let let me make a very
simple examples of that if you and I are
disagreeing and we sort of want to try
to get it the truth uh things that you
can do is to mutually agree on a
mediator so it um okay you you could
step out of your argument and say okay
this isn't working uh how should we do
this disagreement and maybe like let's
mutually agree on a mediator like we
both agree that that person you know
something somebody we can trust and
through okay that's a good step then as
you're doing that carrying that through
you can also um say are you taking in
the other person's thinking and replying
to that or are you just
blocking and there are techniques that
you can do to do to demonstrate you've
taken it
in okay uh like repeat the other's point
and so on and then reply to the other's
point and then do certain things like
not interrupt or in other words I have a
rule I call it the two-minute
rule somebody says okay uh can you give
me the two-minute rule that means for
the next two minutes I can speak
uninterruptedly so there are techniques
that you can use to First understand
that it's not a big fight that there's
protocols okay then how do you do that
in a
hierarchy okay there are different ways
you can do that in a hierarchy but
anyway there are many of them and you
know we're not going to have the time to
go through them but they're outlined in
um you know um my book principles life
and work the in the work principles part
of
it yeah that's something that we found
really effective here is uh Rules of
Engagement is how we refer to it so
whether it's the two-minute rule or
something else um but ultimately getting
people to understand I'm saying this in
in the cont of somebody who's trying to
figure out how we get uh we know that
the the big cycle has a high degree of
predictability and I'm willing to accept
that maybe the US can't Remain the um
the reserve currency forever maybe we're
not going to be the dominant world
superpower forever but that I want to
handle that transition out as well as
possible and usually phase five to six
ends with literal Bloodshed and things
have to get so painful before people can
correct course and so trying to give
people a framework I know you're saying
that maybe I'm I'm looking at the
structure too much but I I think in
Frameworks so what's that rubric by
which people can go into whether it's
the 2024 election uh whether I think
right now we're still in gridlock with
the budget or the debt seiling or
whatever it is um giving people ways to
navigate through this well and so my
thing is everything begins with the goal
so what's your goal and even just
getting um any group to agree on what
the goal is now once we know what the
goal is then we can start saying okay
what people or ideas are most likely to
get us there how do you stress test an
idea how do you know I just want to
emphasize though uh as you're doing that
the people have got to agree how they
want to be with each other
first before there's a structure I mean
I can we can have structure I can create
St
structure and we can do all sorts of
things we can have a bipartisan cabinet
we can have the um uh the um going off
for six months and doing the project and
we can do all there's lots of things we
can do but you first have to change the
mindset of going from a I want to win at
all
cost to wanting that so all I'm saying
is when you say I want the structure and
I'm a structure guy I'm I want the
structure and I'm a structure guy too
but it takes people wanting something
and so what is the goal like you say the
goal you start with the goal okay that
we are not going to fight with each
other in a disfunctional
way
okay that we will work together to
overcome our differences that we will be
good with each other okay if you put
those things there and then judge those
things and you sort of then say how are
we going to do that okay then you do to
B and structure whatever you know
bipartisan cabinet blah blah blah blah
all that other stuff then you can come
around to it but you have
to if you're in a I will fight at all
cost
Mode Nothing the structure of the
Constitution is not going to work I I'll
give you my hypothesis on the only way
to pull that off and let me know if you
see another option Lord knows I hope
there is one uh I've thought a lot about
how you sway people into doing something
that is more advantageous I'm usually
thinking about it for them so just
what's more advantageous for them and it
all ultimately comes down to you have a
a leader or a group of people for whom
you're trying to earn the respect of and
by earning their respect you do the
right things so I'll sum it up at at the
national level we would need a leader
that can actually bring the two sides
together somebody who has a very clear
Vision you've you've grimaced for
anybody that's just listening to this uh
Ray Delia just grimaced hard all right
so uh explain the Grimace Ray it's like
wishing for the tooth fairy or something
I I
mean it's like um not going to the root
cause of why you don't have the that
leader
okay if you look at
history um this is one of the great
challenges of a democracy and when it
gets into everybody fighting for their
own cause with pet um
populism they you know and so you know
musini comes to power to make the trains
run on time because it's badly managed
and so on so somebody says give me the
dictator
give me the dict dictator and then I
will and and I want that dictator so
that's what we're um okay so how do you
get that
leader okay it it increasingly I'm just
deal with the
mechanics so um uh so how do you get the
leader and what do you do with the
opposition okay it's almost like
um well you you have this fighting of
the various types and do you accept
losing and then does the opposition
remain
and undermine everything you're trying
to
do so it's almost like it gets to mob
rule that's why the dictators come to
power
okay so that's just history and that's
all understandable if not desirable it's
still understandable that that's the
mechanics so to wish and
say okay we need a strong leader who
will get control and make everything go
all right sounds a little bit like
wishing for the tooth fairy that that is
how dictators come to power that is very
much the scen scario I would want to
categorically avoid so do you see that
just as that is an inevitability because
right now right to your own point we are
not being good with each other from what
I can see there there is uh certainly a
broadcast signal and maybe this is a
distortion of social media but I don't
think so certainly not given the
elections of recent there was a
broadcast of a signal of massive
division in a moment of massive division
you you get people fighting in a moment
where people fighting there is a win or
take all scenario that's the path to
dictatorship so while my path may be
wishing for the Tooth Fairy to want
somebody who's inspiring that can unite
people um I'll ask it pointedly do you
just see it as an inevitability that we
head towards dictatorship when you say
um have a leader that way you're not
dealing with the
mechanistic determinance
to say how do you get a society that is
splitting apart and operating in the way
that I describe to have a leader that
leads and people follow properly okay
you're skipping over that you can't skip
over that do you see a path though other
than because the natural way that this
plays out the only path I can see is the
one that I'm referring to if you worry
about the
alternative okay
it I okay if you worry look at that what
is it you must not have it if the more
people worry about that then the more
likelihood you won't have that in other
words if you want to tilt the odds in
all the different ways I don't know take
out the ads have conversations like this
do whatever it is and say I worry of
what's going to happen so we must not
have that and we really must have this
other alternative I really want to buy
into that other alternative and you have
somebody arguing for that other
alternative like will you
follow um and I'll tell you I'll tell
you um um the
prime Mario dragi in Italy let me just
tell you the story very quickly of Mario
dragi in
Italy Mario dragi used to be U the head
of the European Central Bank which was
like being head of the Federal Reserve
for a number of years and he and I got
to know each other in that he completed
that and he's highly highly respected
he's Italian and Italian has um Italy
has crazy Anarchy like they've had an
average of one prime minister a year and
so Chao and so bad that all the
political parties got together and said
we will be United under Mario drogy we
will let him lead we will turn it over
to him and he said I will do that only
as long as all the political parties
remain
United because if they don't remain
United we're going to get into this
dysfunctional fighting and I know it's
not going to work so for a period of 18
months he um uh was prime minister of
Italy and and very loved people loved
him and then one of the political
parties um um uh uh dropped out because
they disagreed on his approach for I
think it was handling
Ukraine um and he said okay now I'm
resigning even though everybody wanted
him to stay overwhelmingly but he said I
can't govern under that kind of a
fragmented
environment and you know in other words
he knew where it was going to go so so
he resigned and in the period um between
him
resigning and actually turning it over
to the new prime
minister um we had
lunch and um and we were talking about
these things and what what he was
describing and what
exists is the issue that we're talking
about the inability of a a leader to be
able to lead when there's so much
fragmentation and if you look at the
history of De
democracies um and you go back to
Plato back Plato's Republic he wrote The
Plato you know a lot of people think
Americans invented democracy it existed
way back you know um in the Roman and
Greek times and all that um and so he
looked at the cycles and what he said
was there's the cycle of these different
systems one leads to another in this way
where what happens is the greatest risk
of democracy is an
anarchy because the fragments it it
becomes
uncontrolled they all have their
interests they fight and they tear the
thing apart and then so what happens
after that is then you get the
dictator and um you get ideally the
benevolent dictator in other words the
one who really knows how to make good
things happen and he cares about the
country he doesn't care about his
personal wealth and those kinds of
things and that and they create that and
okay to create order that comes about
that and then in that cycle after a
period of time you inevitably get the
incompetent or selfish
dictator and then you have a
revolution and then you go to a
democracy and so on and these things go
in cycles and so when you're asking the
question you know of the leader you know
you're saying okay let's create a
leader and um and and have them go lead
you can't ignore the fragmentation and
the
inability uh to lead in that set of
circumstances I agree with that but if
you even in your own example what you
had in Mario is somebody that is able to
Garner the respect of all the different
factions now I understand that It
ultimately broke apart but he is the
Tooth Fairy that I'm talking about you
need somebody that people can unite
under but it didn't work because of the
P the people behave with each other and
it won't work
okay yeah okay so if if we know that
people aren't going to stay United for
long what you're saying is the duration
that people can stay United is the
duration that you can have that sort of
peace prosperity and the second that you
how long is that duration here I let's
let's look at the situation I mean it
doesn't exist let alone have a duration
to it yeah Ry you say very troubling
things in a very calm manner which I
think is probably the only way to say
them um all right so as I then step back
and I say okay the Cycles are what the
Cycles are you said something earlier
which I think is really important that I
want to reemphasize what's happening now
is a determination from something that
happened earlier and so to some extent
you're in a better position to deal well
with the way things are the reality I've
heard you talk a lot about that the
reality is what the reality is you need
to be awake you need to be paying
attention to that reality and then you
need to base your plan of action based
on the truth of that circumstance to do
that though one thing I think is
incredibly important is people have to
be able to strip their emotions out of
this uh I know you're a huge proponent
of meditation are how do people get good
at removing emotion from the equation so
that they can see reality
accurately well meditation is a huge
benefit for that um so I really it it it
gives
one both a calmness and a
Clarity it gives one an ability almost
to go above everything and look down on
it and say okay here's how things
work and uh and and an acceptance of
reality it's like this Serenity Prayer
God give me the serenity to accept that
which I can't control give me the power
to control that which I can and give me
the wisdom to tell the difference and
you know just to be able to approach
things in an open-minded way like we
talk about uh you asked the question
about um
disagreement how can I approach
disagreement do I emotionally get into a
fight about it or do I handle it well
meditation and those types of things
calming yourself down viewing everything
more like it's you know it's think of a
a reality as being like a game like a
chess game
okay
calmly okay this thing happens and
what's your next move and how does it
work okay very fascinating so if you
take a chess Grandmaster anybody that's
really proficient at chess and you put a
chess board in front of them they they
look at the board and they don't have to
analyze each individual piece they know
that pattern on the board very well they
know where you are in the game and so
that that's a chunk of
information uh it feels like a very
similar approach to the way that you're
looking at financial markets Global
movements the big cycle in that oh I can
drop you into a scenario you'd look at a
few key pieces of information you'd know
where we are in the cycle so I mean
starting with the three forces that we
talked about at the very beginning hey
tell me where those three forces are you
expanded it to five but tell me where we
are with those five forces that's the
Chunk on the chessboard that I need boom
now I know how to take that next move
that's what I want to try to give to
people okay that's why I have
the um animated video on YouTube that's
why I have the book because it's like
watching the same movie happen over and
over
again you can see it and you understand
the cause effect relations so you can
understand so when you ask questions
like um you know how do you get better
and then we dealt with the mechanics of
that like okay how do you get get
financially better off and how do you be
good with each other and not be
threatened I mean it's just if you look
at it that way and you understand the
mechanics it is what it is that's how
reality works and then how do you deal
with it makes a lot of sense okay so in
terms of chunking in terms of
understanding where we are in the
cycle um one thing that I'm thinking a
lot about is as we go to the 2024
election um I've heard credible people
say that they think China's going to
make a move on
Taiwan in the sort of chaos of the
division that we have here in the
current Global superpower um do you see
that as a logical move on the chessboard
for China is that something that seems
plausible to
you um I have um very good good contact
um so I have close contacts of on both
sides and um in and so I'm just wanting
to say rather than just throwing out an
opinion I my opinion
is that
um there's a political situation in the
United States that that it's really the
issue of how much the United States
pushes the issue in Taiwan on and that
makes it uh risky because
um there's a
um uh a move for uh of let's say Hawks
or um some uh to
[Music]
um
defend uh Taiwan or so let me just give
you the
facts if there is is a I'm going to give
you a little history okay please
[Music]
um Taiwan was part of
China
um and around
1840 foreign powers came into
China and they wanted to trade and do
things with with China and China didn't
want to do that and so around that time
um they had the Opium Wars you may have
heard that in history and which um the
um the Chinese at the time said I don't
want to trade you don't have anything
that I
want and um then they brought in opium
that the Chinese wanted so that they
would have this trade and whatever and
then militarily won and took over large
part of China took control of that and
in
um it was many foreign powers and in
1895 Japan takes uh
Taiwan um okay fast
forward um you go into uh World War II
and after World War 2 the winners of the
war get to divide up the world and said
who who gets
what and Taiwan was given back to China
That's
1945 then they have a civil
war um oh as usual the left and the
right they fight each other and so the
capitalists get kicked out by the
communist and they go to
Taiwan and they control
Taiwan okay so everybody agrees um that
China is part of Taiwan is part of China
but they argue who who controls China
the ones in Taiwan say oh we control
China and the ones in Beijing say we
control China but everybody agrees with
that 50 years ago so that's that's a big
issue in their mind because it's part of
China and it's been told to them that
it's part of China taiwan's part of
China and but it but they the um
capitalists uh which is called the Guan
dang they are living in Taiwan and and
they're not controlling it so Henry
Kissinger um first makes the um gets
together goes to China and deals with
reunification and then Nixon
follows and um and there's this
argument and they reiterate that
um Taiwan is part of
China everybody agrees on that and that
there should be peaceful unification of
China and that goes on 50 years now and
brings it up up to where we are
today okay uh so a red line for China is
if the United
States are um or
Taiwan says Taiwan should be an
independent country that would produce a
war and everybody knows that all those
in government would know that would
produce a
war um this is a big thing for them you
know in other words they call that
period of time a hundred years of
humiliation it was taken it's promised
back and and whatever it's it's in in
their mind an indisputable reality
um now we're in a situation in which um
the United States and particularly um
some uh congressmen who are more
haish um say
uh good chance they will say uh we will
militarily defend
Taiwan and then go on and sell them more
um
military
equipment
um so it's very very close to saying I
will
[Music]
um it's a separate
state so we're very very close to that
particular issue so what will come um I
don't believe China is going to initiate
a
move to to take control of CH of
Taiwan um
unless the United States crosses that
line pushes that
line now so the way that it is
understood and just by different part
parties um is it's understood by the
Chinese to the way I describe it look
it's been promised it's here you know um
I mean don't no that's an
uncompromisable thing and
Americans um I think think
about um this
um communist dictatorial
bully that is trying to take a free
country a free
people and um in
a um
you know um aggressive way take over
them and that we need to
defend
Liberty and protect them from
that okay um I just want to
emphasize um it's more complicated than
that in the way that I said and also
it's like um from uh the Chinese point
of view it's part of the American
containment strategy which means you
know China has grown and it's become a
higher percentage of world economy and
so on and it's
expanding and it's like Taiwan is the
lid on this
Boiling
Pot so that's my best description of
what the situation is so I wouldn't
expect
I would say um if you want to know what
really
happens uh watch it the way I describe
it in other words is it
unprovoked or is or is it provoked in
the way I just described it now again
I'm a very realistic person I'm not an
ideological person I'm not trying to
okay I'm just like how does the how does
reality work and what's the move and
what's the next move and I'm just trying
to describe that reality I'm not taking
a side in it just like two sides in a
chessboard and I'm just looking down at
the chess board the process of getting
those two things aligned tying this into
meditation so in my own experience
meditation is a a Stillness it's a quiet
from the chatter of the mind and more
maybe profoundly than that I can feel my
brain shifts into a different gear so
maybe it's less uh linear thinking it's
more lateral I'm Making Connections that
I might not otherwise make so is it in
in that still in that quiet where you're
able to look at your what's bubbling up
from beneath the lyic system your your
emotional life you're able to look at
that without judgment and then able to
say okay but this is what I'm trying to
do sort of consciously these are my
plans and all of that and now how do I
are you
altering either of them or are you
beginning to say I'm need to understand
if this is a useful emotional driver or
a destructive emotional driver like what
is that process I think you described it
very well um and when you go deeper by
the way you go literally into your
subconscious so you're creating a
connection when you transcend I do
Transcendental Meditation when you
transcend I I'm not conscious and I'm
not
unconscious I am in the subconscious I
I'm not a where uh but if somebody want
make a little noise like that boom I
would I would so it's not like being
asleep and that's also by the way where
creativity comes from it you know it's
like you go take a hot shower and a
great idea comes not because you're
muscling it so when you're having that
then um you're calm and your natural
state and then these things Bubble Up
and it helps that alignment so you say
uh okay let me look go above myself let
me let me go above myself and look at
myself within the context of my
circumstances what is around me how does
that work how does reality work okay if
I do this what are the
consequences and so the the going above
it and just saying I'm responsible for
my decisions my life and how do I
navigate the things the things there
that I can pull the levers of to who do
I get how do I do how do I deal with
those and going above it in that calm
way is really what it's about and when
you do it well with others so you
triangulate that's why I have the
radical truthfulness and the radical
transparency when you have that radical
truthfulness and the radical
transparency you're triangulating with
others you're going above it with them
and you're just looking at that
circumstance and you say okay well we're
in the same goal or are we and then how
do I navigate those so that we get to
where we want to go CU if you're forming
your company you've got your company
we're on the same Mission together right
so now let's all go above ourselves what
are your strengths and weaknesses how do
we get at what's true and how do we do
that with transparency and that's it
yeah oh man so so powerful and putting
into action I'm really seeing exactly
how it begins to um allow and I think
truth is probably the what you call
hyperrealism the getting to such an
objective look at what is true um and
going back to sort of an objective look
at that emotional state which I think is
where a lot of people struggle one of
the biggest and most profound probably
the only lightning rod moment in my life
where it's like whoa my life can be
divided into before that literal like
instantaneous recognition and after
everything is completely different and
that was the first time where I
realized that I was being driven by
something that I had not yet recognized
which was I was telling everybody that I
wanted to generate wealth in my life but
I was acting like I just wanted people
to tell me that I was smart and so the
the like friction between those like hit
this collision and so at the time I was
just a copywriter and the guys who would
later become my partners at the time
were my employers and we got this huge
fight over something stupid and I was
arguing and arguing and arguing for my
idea I needed my idea to win because I
had they were just so much farther ahead
than me they were smarter than me and
that they can process data faster and
and that that's just true like they
could think through things more rapidly
than I could so I was like I have an
inferiority complex over how fast they
think and they're like 15 years ahead of
me as entrepreneurs so I just always
feel like a buffoon and so I'm starting
to really feel badly about myself and so
I'm arguing for this dumb idea arguing
arguing arguing and then finally I wear
them down and they agree and I was like
I know it's the wrong idea like
there's a voice in my head screaming you
know this is a stupid idea stop arguing
for it but I needed to win and so when
they left I thought okay whoo What
what's real I I just need to know what's
real no judgment on me if what you want
is to get rich you have to change the
way that you're acting immediately but
if what you really want is to just feel
smart you need to leave this company
because butting heads with them every
day and feeling inferior is is never
going to get you there and so in that I
realized wait there's actually a third
option where I could value myself
entirely for learning and if I switched
my identity over from being smart being
right being good being worthy to just I
learn that's what I do then everything
will change and it did literally like
that like I remember that day so clearly
so to me what you're describing as just
another one of those right give go go
deeper on that concept the notion that
everything Loops that history repeats
because I think people get it from like
a US history class but they don't
necessarily understand it in their own
life there's practically nothing
that hasn't happened before really if
you look at the theme so when I take
your your particular case I I can
digress into it but i w i I won't I'll
come back to that in in a second almost
everything that happens has happened
many many times before and just like I
described there's the hero's journey and
there's this and that there's that
particular path and the whole thing
happens over and over again so my
reaction um to what you're saying is um
yeah that's absolutely right that's a
winning strategy so if you step back
from that and you write okay what
happened to you what we're what happened
to you is what we're talking about you
went above yourself okay my so you
exemplify you okay here are the things
you went above yourself now you could
have had the ego thing the big barrier
okay the ego barrier is going to be the
thing that's sort of going to kill you
then by reconciling what your subliminal
desires were okay I want to be judg this
smart and then connecting that with your
intellect and saying okay now intellect
what is really going on here okay and
then to be able to step out of that now
you just did it alone but you could do
it with others and it's even better and
and so you figure out oh okay this is
that here's what the choices are here's
what how reality works and so I'm just
saying you did what we were talking
about right and if everybody if
everybody gets that and really
understands how to go do that the number
the two big things is how do you get uh
your alignment of your lower level U
with your upper level U how do you get
um past your ego and your blind spot we
know what the ego barrier is like I got
to be right or whatever it is or I'm not
good at this the blind spot barrier is
the realization that people actually see
things different they see different
things like somebody will see the big
picture somebody will see the detail
they'll focus on different things almost
like a color spectrum type of thing and
if you realize that you will see a part
of that spectrum and other people will
see the other part of the spectrum and
so that you really need to when you go
above yourself you really need to
orchestrate all those ways of seeing
because you are not just one of those
people that's got to do it yourself your
way of being the the success is to go
above it and be the orchestrator and
know what you're good at and what you're
not good at so it's almost like if you
want your life to be successful you will
not let yourself do certain things
things because you're just no good at
them once you get that picture down then
you can find the paths wherever the
paths are you're open-minded because you
now you've given up your ego barrier and
your blind spot barrier so your
particular case just was another one of
those yeah the concept of just another
one of those I think is um it's
bizarrely easy to miss in your book and
so I want to linger on this point for a
second and it's funny because people ask
you this question all the time and you
give the same answer you're so
consistent and yet people don't spend
the time that you spend so let me
encapsulate uh you've done so well as an
investor it's kind of crazy and so
needless to say people are like all
right what's the strategy and your
answer is actually usually not specific
your answer is understand the historical
context understand the historical
context and get smart people around you
so you're not making decisions by
yourself so the notion of it's another
one of those is looking at investing
looking at The Human Condition looking
at your own life as this thing that has
these repeating elements every dimension
of every everything the way is another
one of those and um so that's how you
could if I can get people to think what
I want to convey what that means and
then I I want to then understand how to
think at the principal level because
then life becomes so much easier because
if you have the principle and what I
mean by that is um like you could look
at all the things that are coming at you
and they're just the things coming at
you if you instead uh think of each
thing as being like a type of species
think of that as an like an animal
species or something okay what one of
those is
it and how do I deal with
those and you have your principle for
dealing with those so you have the
species coming in you have a principle
that lines up with the species so now
there's no guesswork or refiguring it
out I figure it's like um I don't know
it's a a type of snake that's coming at
you but everything is another one of
those so when you start to think about
how do I deal with that how does reality
work and how do I deal with those so the
way it looks to me I'll speak
figuratively to help to convey the image
of what I mean by that maybe there is
something like 50 different personality
types I don't know what the exact number
is and they are all living out the same
scripts hen maybe they just 50 different
scripts and then through those you know
maybe there's a certain x00 things
through
time and it seems all confusing because
we're looking at them bit bit by bit you
know it's like you're in a blizzard it's
a snowstorm and each of these bits come
at you and so on if you can kind of step
back and just say okay okay what one of
those is it and it's happened before and
it's happened to different people so
let's say for example you have a kid and
you think okay now I'm a kid and you
could just sort of say okay now you're
parenting but whatever it is you can
sort of says hey it's happened before a
million times and in that particular
circumstances so when you realize
everything happens over and over again
pretty much for the same kind of reasons
okay and you understand that and you can
almost look at um who who's been through
before who knows how it works how do I
best navigate that thing what are my
principles for that then it's great the
reason I discovered it accidentally I
discovered this accidentally is because
I got in the habit that i' suggest you
get into and other people get into and
that is um whenever you're in a
situation where you're making a decision
important decision just pause and write
down what type of decision was it and
why did I make that decision that way
that's writing down your principles it's
kind of your recipe for success and we
could talk about it and then every time
I'm in a situation I'll write down why
did I make that decision and we could
look at those criteria did that make
sense to do that decision that way would
you have different criteria and so on
and you do that over a period of time
okay and then you have your principles
and then so they're just your reasons
for making your decisions and and what
matters to you right when you do that so
that's why I'm encouraging you because
you're going through these and then you
have found a path in life I viewed your
story what you just told me is just
another one of those now you keep doing
it it'll become apparent to you how
everything's another one of those
because what'll happen is the next time
around you're going to find I don't know
let's say you're firing somebody use
that as an example you would say okay
now I'm firing somebody again okay now
let me just kind of reflect would I
modify that principle and how would I do
that and then okay now maybe you you're
firing somebody who's been with you for
10 years and you love and that's not the
same as firing the son of a who
you want to get rid of so then you
refine that how how should I deal with
that one and that and why does it make
sense because that reflection why does
it make sense why does it make sense and
really wanting
truthfulness you you know not worry
about being embarrassed making mistakes
weing on the struggle with all of you
together is a good thing yeah so the
how do you define a species like how do
you begin to codify all this stuff and
go because I I think it's all too easy
to get lost in the well this isn't
another one of those this isn't just
firing somebody this is firing somebody
that I love and so oh there's you know
this so different it's simple because
all you have to do really is to sort to
say if you start to think everyone's
another one and I when I'm making
decision I just got to write down why I
made the decision I don't care how you
TI title it okay just write down okay uh
okay what's what what are your criteria
make it write it down well you'll see
that they're close cousins you know
let's say if you're saying is it a
different one because it's a close
relationship that you've had for a long
time or somebody is new okay well you'll
see those two things are close together
okay but it's another one of those
things and it changes your way of seeing
things okay it changes your perspective
again I want to repeat
because then life becomes easier because
it's not all these bits and pieces okay
it's okay it's another one of those it
gives you an equinity and like a ninja
okay it's another one of these coming at
me okay and how do I approach that and
then you can have a conversation it's
just reality how should you deal with
that reality and if you do that then you
think in a whole different way okay you
just want to get to the best way to deal
with your reality
you've talked about how about 30% of the
people cannot do radical cander be great
for you to I call radical transparency
but whatever so radical transparency
Define what that is exactly and then
what is it about that 30% like are they
they can't get rid of the ego or what
what is that it's just what you're
talking about this the struggle is
between themselves as you go into a
conversation and uh and you're looking
at that um um they find so radical
transparency is saying super hard
really direct nice and clear they're not
good at this yes while simultaneously
saying I don't know if that's true in
other words if I say that I don't I
don't think you're good at that I'm
being honest but also who knows whether
you're good at that so how do we then go
from you think you're good at it I don't
think you're good at it and how do we go
through a process to find out together
whether you're good at it or not how do
we go through that process that would be
one of my key questions okay the best
way to do it is you do it in an agreed
upon way okay the idea is okay we say
okay Tom you're not so good at that I
don't think okay then we go through the
how would we judge can we ask other
people do we go through this test or
that test how do we find out what's true
because if you can find out what's true
your life will be better like do you
want to know what you're not not good at
if you know what you're not good at it's
your life's no problem because it you
don't even have to get good at it you
just have to work with somebody who's
good at what you're not good at right so
there's a path forward when you get out
of your head that you got to do that so
the only basic notion is when if we were
to have a relationship is if you and by
the way it's non-h hierarchical you
could say hey Rey I don't think you're
very good at that and I'm I'm going to
be the same way I put it in because I
needed it cuz I I'm worried that I'm
going to be wrong so then you come to me
and you say I don't think it's very good
well how do we find out in a non-ego
constraint objective way whether I'm
good at that or not do you actually lay
out criteria like here's how we're going
to yeah we will do yeah
absolutely how do you come upon that
criteria would you do this as a
one-on-one would you do this in a group
um how do you begin to tease that stuff
out um first of all in terms of the
group um I like to make everything
transparent so everybody could watch the
same thing happening with anybody so I
like me you would do this in front of a
large group of people no no I would say
taping we do a lot of that tradical
transparency because that way people see
is it fair is it a good process right so
I like to do that discussion but anybody
can do it with anybody right and so but
I would like to have that conversation
if it's like if if I don't think you are
good at something and I am relevant to
your life or vice versa we got to work
it out we got to figure that out
together you do this with your wife in
all relationships in one way or another
you have to find out how you're going to
make decisions there are going to be
agreements and disagreements and you
have to have the art of thoughtful
disagreement now people find their
domains differently maybe somebody says
okay I'll take care of these things and
you take care of that I don't know some
people you know the traditional
household might say okay I'll take care
of making the money out and the man goes
out and he makes money in the world and
then when woman says I'll take care of
the kids we're not there anymore but
each role I'm trying to say in some way
you have to find out how to do the art
of thoughtful disagreement it's and it
makes sense and then also knowing what's
good what you're good at and what you're
not good at it's a good thing to know
what you're good at and what you're not
good at right what do you do though like
when you let's say you and your wife
realize o we actually have something
that we disagree with how to do with the
kids and that's high stakes if you do
something wrong you could have a
material impact on on their psyche and
the way that they approach the world so
there's sort of elevated stakes and
there's just two of you unless you guys
had a way of appealing to other people
would it come down because you've said
um don't worry so much about what the
person's saying think about the process
by which they got there yeah so I'm
saying whenever there's a disagreement
between two people that they can't get
along on that they should pause and they
should go above it and they should
say um how do we how should we deal with
each other when that happens in other
words what are our protocols for um
working ourselves through that so that
we can then move beyond that to make a
decision and with a specific protocol in
a marriage be something like if it has
to do with the kids you have more
believability than I do so therefore if
we can't come to an agreement we'll go
with your decision there are me that
could be one of the protocols the main
thing I'm trying to
convey is when people are ordinarily in
an argument they just argue and they and
and they don't know the ground rules
they don't have a process in place so if
you look above it and you come up with
whatever your rules are it may be you
could have domain it may be that you
have a mutually agreed party that you
would say okay let's plead our cases to
and have them mediate it could be a lot
of different paths could exist to say ah
I think that's a good path when we have
a disagreement how how we plead our
cases and then move Beyond it but you
need to have the path and that's what I
mean by principled level thinking go
above it how should it be instead of you
know this type of thing right we all
need that in order to have successful
relationships it's fundamental right
when you got this and you're not going
above it and saying why do you have this
or how should this occur then you got
trouble if you really want to understand
the complex Financial landscape we all
face watch this conversation with bology
shr vason the problems go all the way to
the Bedrock of the financial system in
terms of treasuries being the new toxic
waste it's going to be at least as bad
as 2008 probably worse than that