Kind: captions
Language: en
I think the AI censorship Wars are going
to be a thousand times more intense and
a thousand times more important my guest
today is someone who doesn't just keep
up with Innovation he creates it the
incredible Mark Andre trust me when
someone like Mark who spent his entire
career betting on the future says this
is the next major disruption you need to
listen from a political standpoint we
should hope that we have rapid
technology progress because if we have
rapid technology progress we'll have
rapid economic growth do people care um
and are people going to be will to stand
up for this and I think that that's
what's required it's going to displace a
lot of jobs uh some of those people will
redistribute themselves by acquiring new
skills other people will not this isn't
something to think about tomorrow you've
got to be prepared today so let's Dive
Right In I bring you Mark
andreon Mark Andre welcome to the
podcast awesome thank you for having
me my pleasure now you've had a insane
amount of success betting on where
Industries are going so let me ask you
what is the most radical disruption that
you see coming in the near future with
AI you know I I just say like we're
convinced AI is one of those sort of
moments of of fundamental change um and
you know in in our in the tech industry
you know these come along every couple
of decades but they're not
frequent um and you know this one is up
there with the microprocessor and the
computer and the internet for sure and
maybe bigger um and so for for us in the
tech industry this is a uh this is a I
think a very very very profound powerful
moment um and of course you're already
seeing you know a lot a lot of the um a
lot of the effects that already playing
out but um you know this technolog is
that this technolog is going to change a
lot of things and it's going to be I
think very uh very
exciting and so for people that don't
know you have a fundamentally optimistic
view of AI of technology in general um
do you have like from an investment
strategy do you guys have a thesis on
what industry you think is going to be
most advantaged by AI that you're trying
to get into yeah there there are many so
we're involved in in in many um there I
would say there's some obvious slam dunk
one since I would say Healthcare um is a
slam dunk one I actually just I actually
just uh happen to have lunch with Demis
hbus who just won the Nobel Prize uh in
chemistry for his work on protein
folding um and not a bad lunch date yeah
yeah exactly uh and um and he was kned
this year also so he's also s sir Demus
um but uh you know he and his colleagues
basically have this transformative
approach that you know they they believe
is going to lead to dramatic
breakthroughs in in in the development
of medicine in the years ahead powered
by AI um so you know Healthcare is an
obvious one um entertainment um is one
that I think is it's going to be
extremely exciting what happens from
here and again that's that's already
starting to play out um and uh you know
you're already seeing like just sort of
incredible creativity being applied um
uh to that and so you know maybe you
could kind of maybe bookend it by saying
those because it's kind of the most
serious one and the most fun one uh but
then look there's there's there's lots
lots of other stuff um probably the
single biggest question I'm asking right
now is robotics um you know there's been
the promise of uh you know kind of
Robotics you know kind of saturating our
society and you know everybody having
you know robot robots in the home and
you know everybody having you know
robots to do you know to do everything
manual labor and you know wash the
dishes and pack the suitcase and clean
the toilet and you know you know
conceivably everything um you know the
manual labor um you know kind of free
people from manual labor and that's you
know been a promise you know going back
you know in science fiction it's been a
promise for you know like 120 years um
and um you know until recently we were
no closer than we were maybe back then
but you know you're starting to see very
dramatic I think
breakthroughs um and I think uh you know
sort of like you had sort of drones that
Now work like autonomous drones are like
now a standard thing um self-flying
self-piloting drones you know have
self-driving cars that are now a thing
and that now now work really well um and
I think uh it may be you know humanoid
robots and all kinds of other uh forms
of robots um uh we have uh we have two
of we have two Chinese robot dogs at
home um
and yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah we you
actually have them at your house yeah
yeah yeah so there's a uh there you so
you so everybody's probably seen all the
demos remember there's this company bust
and dynamics that has all these they
always have these great demos you see
you see these videos of these robot dogs
running around but you know they cost
like $50,000 $100,000 and then and that
company never really brought them to
Market um and so it never really worked
outside of as a demo uh but there are
now Chinese companies that have these
things down to
$1,500 um yeah and they like they're
great they're great they run around they
actually they run actually quite quickly
they can outrun you um they uh they do
flips um they stand on their High legs
they climb stairs um they can uh there's
a version of it that has wheels uh that
they can go like 30 miles an hour um
then that one can also climb stairs it
locks the wheels and it's perfectly fine
climbing stairs um so you know those are
really starting to work and then uh you
know humanoids are coming fast and you
know Elon just had his demo day for uh
the you know Tesla robots unreal yeah
and so those are those are starting to
work you know it's not quite there yet
like those were still tele operated
there's still people in the background
with VR headsets that are kind of
steering those and guiding those and
helping those but but that's also how
you train these these robots is you kind
of have they kind of watch what people
do and and then you train so I think we
might be like actually reasonably close
in robotics which would actually have a
you know would have a very big impact
and so yeah maybe you could call out
those three categories as obvious ones
to toh to focus on what kind of timeline
do you have for robotics when are we
going to start having that first round
of people buying them and having them in
their home I know elon's pegged it at 20
to 30 grand when
yeah so the the big breakthrough um so
so self-piloting drones were a very big
breakthrough um and you know the the the
the dominant ones on those in the global
market are this company DJI which is
this big uh you know company in China
you know but those now work really well
and then there's American companies we
have a we have American companies that
have you know I think even better
technology um that aren't quite the same
size yet but are really good um and so
and that's a big deal like so you can
you can have you know we we have drones
now that can like fly between tree
branches they can fly you know indoors
you know they can fly you know
completely autonomously through like by
the way underground tunnels um and so
those work really well and then like I
said like self-driving cars um you know
the whmo you know cars now are great um
and you know people who use them have
fantastic experiences and then the Tesla
self-driving capability is getting
really good um and um and so like so I
go through those to say those are both
robots um you know flying robot driving
robot um and so walking robot all of a
sudden is not so crazy um exact timing I
don't know you know I you know Swag five
years but you know could be two could be
eight I don't know optimistically three
or four um you know the the prom the
promise you know there's many many
possible form factors for these things
right um designs the the this the theory
of humanoid robots which I believe is
the the great thing about humanoid
robots is there's just there's so much
of the physical world that assumes that
there's a person present right so person
standing in an assembly line person
driving a car person driving a tractor
person you know picking you know you
know picking picking uh you know uh you
know vegetables in a field there there's
just all the all these systems um uh you
know that we have that just assume
there's a person and so if you build a
robot in the shape of a person in theory
it can just kind of you know it can kind
of you know fill in and do all that work
um and so that you know that that should
be a very big Market um and and
obviously people you know should be very
comfortable with that you know they'll
they'll you know they'll they'll dovet
tail you know really well into kind of
normal society but I also think there'll
be a lot of other you know there you can
you can package these things up however
you want and so there will be lots of
other you know kinds of you know there
already are obviously lots of robots in
the world but there will be you know
more and more of different
kinds and what are the hard Parts what
are the hurdles they still have to
overcome that's going to cause it to be
three four possibly eight years from now
yeah so there's basically I would say
three big categories so there's the
physical sort of controls the you know
the actual physical you know kind of
body and its ability to kind of control
itself um you know and that's where if
you look at like elon's demonstration
the other night you can kind of see how
how fast that stuff's moving um if
because if you watch like his
progression of the other companies doing
it they're they're getting much better
um and so that that's just moving right
along um then there's battery um Power
um is probably still a fundamental limit
um you know because it's a it's a
question of like you know how long can
you actually like power one of these
things before it has to recharge or do a
battery swap and and that's still a bit
a bit of an issue and it's it's hard to
make progress on batteries but um a lot
of people are working on it um and then
software is the big challenge um I think
um and you know where where where we we
would get more involved um and you know
so this sort of this all the software
and so think about it like these robots
have sensors they've got visual sensors
they've actually got um like the the
robot dogs have what's called lar which
is sort of the light version of radar
which is the same thing that's in the
wayo cars um and so they you know
they've got sensors they can kind of you
know gather they've got sound you know
they can gather input you know from kind
of all around them actually they they
can gather input from their environment
better than human can because they can
see 360 degrees and you know they can do
depth sensing and so forth in ways that
we can't um so they get all the raw data
but then it's a process you have to you
have to actually process that data you
have to form it into a model of the
world you have to then the robot has to
have a plan for what it does right and
then it has to understand the
consequences of the plan right and so
you know I'm I'm I'm setting the I'm
setting the coffee down on the table you
know I can't set it down on somebody's
hand so so I have to set it down near
the hand but not on the hand I have to
keep it level because if I tip it I'm
you know I'm going to scald somebody
right so like I I and then and by the
way while I'm the robot while I'm
sitting the coffee down the person has
moved right and so I have to adapt to it
right um or you know same thing walking
through a crowd like I can't you know
you can't have robots running into
people um and so you have to have know
how they approaching how they're
approaching that problem so if I think
about when I saw the robots interacting
with the people at the party is there an
underlying goal for the robot to be
likable and is it like hey get to know
people uh try to charm them what what is
the plan that they're giving to the
robot that it's moving towards yeah so I
mean in general if you're a company in
general you want basically completely
benign right so if you're a company you
want because it's actually it lines up
nicely with the profit incentive you
know you want friendly approachable you
know think you know think you know
products that make people happy think
products that make people comfortable
you know products that aren't
threatening or intimidating and aren't
you know AR aren't hurting people and so
you you put a really really big focus on
fitting in the environment you put a
really big focus on avoiding anything
that would ever you know harm a human
being um you know you put a very big
focus on you know the robot should you
know happily you know you know you know
should happily you know whatever step
into traffic or whatever if it if it if
it's going to save somebody's life um um
and so you know you want that and then
yeah I think you know generally you want
it to be you know sort of approachable
safe harmless you know are kind of terms
that get used a lot you know you know
friendly now look this is the other
thing is um there used to be this like
really hard challenge which is how are
you going to control these things how
are you going to talk to them are they
going to you know if you watch Star Wars
they communicate and beeps and boops um
you know if you watch Star Trek and
you're watching you know Commander Data
you know he's talking in English um you
know up until two years ago we thought
it would have to be you know beeps and
boops but now we have large language
models and we have these voice you know
AI you know interfaces like you know
open AI just released their advanced
voice mode and it's a it's a full you
know it's like talking to the Starship
computer and the Starship Enterprise or
you know a you know it's just like
talking to a person and so all of a
sudden you can give these robots voices
they can talk they can listen you know
they can explain quantum physics to you
they can sing you a little Lai they can
you know forecast the presidential
election like you know they can do what
they can now do whatever you want um and
so that's that's the other part of it is
that you know you're you're going to
really be able to talk and interact with
them um the first one I saw the Boston
Dynamics guys did this hysterical demo
where they they wired up one of these
early language models a couple years ago
to their robot dog um and they gave it a
like a super plumy like English butler
voice um so it's like this like you know
mechanical robot dog like stomping
around but it's talking to you like it's
like it's it's like you're Bruce Wayne
and it's Alfred or something you know
it's just you know you as the robot dog
what do you see and it does like the
very Plumb accit oh you know I see a
lovely pile of rocks um and so yeah
you're going to there by the way there's
going to be enormous creativity um
there's this uh startup we're not
involved in um but I I like the guys a
lot called CUO uh in Redwood City that
basically has a a plushy uh so they have
a stuffed animal um and um it's
basically designed for little kids um
and it's a voice it's a voice UI um and
it it's back ended by a large language
model and you know it doesn't move it's
just it's just a plushy with a voice box
um but it will happily sit and tell kids
jokes and teach them all about you know
whatever they want learn about and talk
to them about whatever is on their mind
um and they have it you know really
elegantly wired up where the parent the
parent can both control how the toy
actually like what it's willing to talk
about so you can as a parent you can
like Define you know the topics that are
like go zones versus no go zones so you
could kind of say you know let it talk
to the kid about you know science but
not politics for example um and then you
get as a parent you get a real-time
transcript of the of the interaction so
like your kids's up in the bedroom
talking to the talking to the thing and
you actually get to see see the
conversation right and so and it's funny
when you when you watch this with like
kids they just think this is like the
most natural normal thing in the world
right I've talked in the past I I have a
9-year-old and I brought home um when
chat GPT first shipped um you know two
years ago I guess he was seven and so I
uh he has a laptop that he does his some
of his his school stuff on and so I set
up chat GPT on his laptop and I sat him
down I was so proud of myself because
I'm like I'm like I don't know it's like
I'm I'm you know I'm coming down from
the mountain to deliver like the gift of
fire to my child like I'm giving him
like the super technology that's going
to be with him his whole life that's
going to answer any question and help
him with all his work and this like the
most amazing gift of technology I could
give him and I I I showed him chat GPT
and I said you know you type in any
question you want and then it answers
the question and he looked at me and he
said you know
so right and I was like what do you mean
so like this is like the Breakthrough
this is like this is the thing this is
like the thing for 80 years we've all
been working on and it finally works and
he's like what else would you use a
computer for like so funny like
obviously it answers your questions
right um and so like I think kids are
going to kids are I mean it's already
happening kids are going to pick this up
like incredibly fast it's going to be
you know super normal um anyway so long
answer to your question we have we have
a we have a chance to design you know we
can design technology to be as as as
friendly and helpful and accommodating
and and supportive as as we can possibly
imagine and I think that the commercial
products will all get built that way for
sure yeah to me that's where the biggest
disruption is going to be when I think
about AI I think I'm as optimistic as
you in terms of the things that it will
do for us it's intellect you're going to
be able to throw you know God knows how
many new uh PhD Lev people and maybe one
day even more at all these incredible
problems all right that's going to be
utterly fantastic but then I think about
uh your dog becomes a robot dog uh
becomes furry and fluffy and wonderful
but it also talks to your kids and helps
raise them and you have this lens into
it and then all of a sudden it's well
it's not just the dog it's I've got an
AI girlfriend she's not really a
girlfriend not like that well but then I
you know I've been talking to her for
three years and now robot body comes
online and I want to put that AI into
the the robot body and all the sudden I
I think that there's going to be uh a
pretty
fascinating uh to try to keep a positive
here a fascinating Schism that will
happen in society so five years ago I
wrote a comic book about this uh about
what I think is going to happen and I
think there's going to be a bifurcation
in society and I I really think this is
actually going to happen uh how big and
how dramatic that that remains to be
seen but I think you're going to get a
subset of society that says Nope not
doing this it's like the opening line in
Dune that thou shalt not make a mind an
artificial mind uh mirroring human
intelligence or whatever the exact line
is and I think people will isue AI they
will asue uh neuralink and things like
that and and they'll be sort of this new
puritanical um vein of humanity and then
you're going to get other people like me
that embrace the technology I may not be
an early adopter of neuralink but if it
truly gets safe and it allows me to
upgrade my abilities man I will do that
in a heartbeat and so then it becomes a
question of how much friction will there
be between those two sides but those
seem inevitable uh do you think I'm
crazy about that or do you see that same
inevitability and if so how does it play
out I mean I think it's certainly a
plausible scenario I think it's
certainly logical I you know it
certainly could play out that way I I I
guess I my model of human behavior is
different so I'm I'm skeptical I'm
skeptical that that is what will happen
and you know I would just start by
saying that there is a you know there is
a schism of that like that in our
society today and and they are the
Amish yeah and actually grew up you know
they were Amish near where I grew up and
and um and uh you know and you know so
so the good news with the Amish is they
have a defined quality of you know
quality of life they have you know a
whole value system sort of you know
involves you know rejecting technology
for some by the way for some very deeply
thought through reasons um and you know
they're you know by all accounts you
know in many cases very happy and and by
the way by the way they're also very
fertile um uh you know so they're you
know they're having lots of kids and so
there there's there's you know there's
actually think quite a bit to admire
about what they do you know look having
said that I would just say two things
one is they are a very very very very
very small percent of the population um
and so there's not a lot of people who
volunteer to become Amish and then um
the other thing that happens if you
track them in detail what actually
happens is they don't reject technology
they just adopt it on a lag um right um
and so and basically the lag is about 30
years um and there been there's a bunch
of articles that this over the last over
the last decade where for example
they're now adopting PCS a personal
computer really yeah yeah yeah yeah well
because it's so I thought they were
still without electricity no no no no
they've got electricity I mean you know
they they can they try to control it but
they definitely this is a great example
they definitely have it right um um and
then they have Tel they now have
landline telephones um so there's just a
there's just a there's there's there's a
point where you just you know things
just get to be practically so you know
the PC so the PC thing apparently the
articles that I've read basically what
it is is the personal comp personal
computer like you know they run these
small businesses they they'll have like
a you know they'll do like handcar
furniture for example that's like you
know these amazing things well it's just
a lot easier to run a furniture store if
you've got a personal computer to do The
Ledger and the inventory on it right uh
and it's just and at a certain point
they figure out a theory under which
that's okay they they still don't
connect it to the internet um you know
but they that they do the they you know
they they have the personal computer by
the way that you know and then you just
kind of say inevitably the next step is
they're going to want to sell their
Furniture online and so it's just a
matter of time until they figure out a
way to bring in a internet connection
right and so one of the really really
fascinating things about AI is it went
from being something that was sort of
speculative and weird three years ago to
something that is now actually quite
common already in use um and and and and
and and this is quite a profound and
powerful thing that I think we'll
probably talk a lot about today which is
uh which is number one it's AI is
already in in in wide use and so the
number of users on systems like chat GPT
and mid journey and whatever are already
in the hundreds of millions and are
growing very fast um and lots and lots
of people are using these are using
these things and they use them in their
everyday life they use them for work
they may or may not admit to their boss
they're using them for work but they're
definitely using them for work you know
students are using them in school if
you've got like you know teenage kids
like any any classroom in America now
was grappling with this question of like
you know is the kid bring in an essay
that Chad GPT wrote um you know but
they're helping with homework and and
they're doing all kinds of stuff and the
the usage numbers on these Services kind
of reflect you know already broad-based
adoption and then there's a really
powerful thing underneath that that's
really important um which is the most
powerful AI systems in the world are the
ones that you get on the internet for
free um or maximum 20 bucks a month um
and and very specifically you know I
have the capability if I want to you
know I could go spend a million dollars
to just have like the best AI I could go
spend a million dollar a year if I go
spend a million dollars year today I do
not get a better AI than you get when
you sign up for cat GPT it's literally
not available I can't do it the best AI
in the world is the thing it's on ched
GPT or by the way Google Gemini or
Microsoft Bing or um you know anthropic
Claude you know there or XX um you know
grock the the xai one or mrr which is
you know one of our companies or llama
for meta there's like seven of these now
that are like available either for free
or for or at most for 20 bucks a month
um and and they're the best in the world
um and so it's actually quite shocking
striking shocking which is the a lot of
people have the mental model of oh well
the best technology must be basically
hoed by a few people who are then going
to Lord it over the rest of us and are
going to make all the money on it right
it's kind of the you know the kind of
you know kind of always the fear on
these things the the reality is like
this technology is democratizing faster
than the computer did faster than the
internet did it's available to everybody
right out of the shoot by the way it's
getting build you know Apple's building
it into the iPhone it's just you know
now it's just Apple intelligence is
going to be a standard feature of the
iPhone and so this technology basically
has gone from not present in our society
to like almost Universal in one step and
I and I just you know it it may be that
people choose to voluntarily give it up
but I I in my life I have not yet seen
people who sort of voluntarily renounce
something that they get used to so it
yeah it it would be a first if it
happened all right uh I hear that and
you're the right person for me to have
this conversation I love when dogs bark
the loudest because they're on a leash
so you're going to be my leash I'm going
to paint uh a scenario Mario knowing
that you're going to pull me back from
the brink cuz I'm fundamentally a techno
Optimist and I'm definitely somebody
that will Embrace his technology as fast
as humanly possible we're deploying it
here in my company as rapidly as we can
I will literally if it's proven safe get
neuralink the whole
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yourself uh so here's what I think plays
out um this is as close to the sort of
realistic mess that I think we'll go
through the long Arc of History bends
towards justice but uh history does not
care about any single generation and I
think that the thing we will all have to
get very politically comfortable with is
the fact that yes AI is going to
displace jobs wildly as we move towards
something absolutely wonderful and
spectacular but it's going to displace a
lot of jobs uh some of those people will
redistribute themselves by acquiring new
skills other people will not uh and it
won't be a great time for them and their
families will rally around them as the
material wealth is unlocked as spending
power becomes more abundant all of that
the the younger people that are more
intellectually Nimble uh will take
advantage of that to to care for people
but there's going to be this conflict on
the left and the right as to hey
shouldn't we just give these people Ubi
or whatever to take care of the people
that are going to struggle because they
are going to struggle and if people
don't have a mental defense if they
don't have a narrative that they can
understand about how we weather that
storm I think they'll make very bizarre
economic choices as you were talking um
you're talking about deflation and
people ought to wonder how on Earth
given all the technological advances
we've had over the last 300 years how is
inflation still going up this seems
crazy and the reason that inflation goes
up despite the massive deflation that
technology brings is that the government
gobbles It Up by printing money and oh
boy do I have a personal bone to pick I
have no idea your take on the economy
and how it intersects uh so I'll plant
my flag and let you react I think that
the you need to only look at the M2
money supply chart to see I mean it's
just absolutely outrageous uh how much
more money has been poured into the
system completely artificially just
generated uh out of thin air um and that
that is the inflation when we say
inflation that's what we're talking
about the inflation of the the money
supply in doing that the government
doesn't have to get your vote on
something they will I refer to and I I
do not want to put words in your mouth
but I refer to that as the government
steals from you and then they force you
to play uh the stock market as one
standin for investments in order to beat
uh inflation caused by them printing
money and stealing from you um and I
think that's deranging and I think that
the government has a moral obligation to
give people a non-inflatable currency in
which people can at least Park their
wealth so that the average person who
does not want to play the stock market
can just save like a a guy that is a
janitor and he's just trying to get by
and and take care of his family should
be able to Sock away money and not have
its value eroded over time uh through
very conscious and poor in my opinion
policies um curious to get your take on
that if if if I tell you that in any
given time you could have more or less
technology change and then that that
change would show up in economic
statistics the way that e economists
measure it as what they productivity
growth which is a thing they measure
it's a you know it's actual number um
and so you know if you have if a society
has you know 1% productivity growth
that's super low if they have 4%
productivity growth per year that's like
super high let's let's let's call that
the super ring and if you could ever get
to eight or 10% productivity growth
you'd have Cornucopia technological
Utopia it'd be amazing every everything
would get like super cheap and abundant
super fast but like that modern
societies go somewhere between 1 and 4%
um would you say that we live in a time
today in which productivity is uh growth
and therefore technological change is
running high or low um I think we are
about to
unleash a ton of that productivity but
right now I think that the government is
siphoning off so much of that
productivity that you get this Schism
between The Young and the old so the old
I think are doing very well and the
young are getting absolutely clobbered
and so they don't feel it but if AI does
what we think it's going to do then yes
I think that we will um finally be able
to unlock a lot of that but just take
take the distributional part of it out
just because we'll come back to that but
just take the distributional part out
but just talk just about just the rate
of Technology change like do do we live
right now in a time of great of great
technology change or or low technology
change the only great technology changes
in AI so low okay and and then you'll
you'll probably get the next answer
right which is did we have faster
technology change between 19 uh 30 and
1970 um than we do today or slower uh
much faster much faster yeah those are
the correct answers and so the the met
the metric on what's happened and this
this actually quite important is that
productivity growth and therefore
technological change in the economy was
much faster in the decades that preceded
the 1970s actually by the way the
turning point was the year I was born it
was 1971 in 197 WTF happened WTF
happened 197 yeah so there's there's a
time there's a website called WTF
happened in 1971. comom and it it's just
it's it's like literally hundreds of
charts of basically this discontinuous
change on all kinds of economic and
social markers that kind of kicked in I
was born I do believe it is entirely my
fault I I will I will I will I will
confess to that um but yeah one of the
things that happened was right around
that time productivity growth
downshifted um it was running at like 2
3 4% and then it's sort of been 1 to
two% ever since and it it it abs and
flows a little bit with the economic
cycle but like it it's been quite low
for the last for the last 60 years um
part of the dtail the political thing
you were saying there's a lot of
questions as to why it's been so low
there's actually economists talk about
something called the productivity
Paradox because it it was weird because
the computer emerged in the 1970s and so
all the economists in the 1970s said the
computer is going to lead to it's it's
going to lead to Cornucopia it's going
to lead to enormous productivity growth
of course it is you you got mors law and
you know it's just like it's all this
software and all this you know inventory
Just in Time Manufacturing and you're G
to have you know by the way robots right
um and so you're going to have this for
sure you're going to have a massive
takeoff in in productivity growth and
actually what happened was productivity
growth uh actually downshifted and so
the the whole all of our expectations
for how Society works are actually
geared towards low productivity growth
and low economic growth from a
historical
standpoint the importance of that is
really key to the next thing that you
said which is the psychological effect
of being in a low growth environment is
zero some politics right logically right
because if if we're in a high growth
environment if the economy if if
technology productivity growth is
running at 4% or God willing someday
more and if economic growth is running
at 4 per or more the economy will be
doing so well it will be spewing money
in all directions um everything will be
going crazy crazy everything will be
every business will be flush every
consumer will feel fantastic jobs are
being created all over the place
everybody's kids for sure are going to
live better lives than their parents did
it's going to be great by the way the
1990s were that right there there was
this kind of fiveyear stretch in the
1990s where economic growth really took
off and if you probably remember you
probably like it was it was it was
fantastic right everybody felt
awesome right um and so this is one of
the kind of weird this this is why like
a lot of the fears around the impact of
technology I think are really misguided
when it comes to all these economic and
political topics which is from a
political standpoint we should hope that
we have rapid technology progress
because if we have rapid technology
progress we'll have rapid economic
growth if we have rapid economic growth
we'll have positive some politics right
for for me to be bet in a high growth
environment for me to be better off I
can go be better off I can go exercise
my skills and talents and get new jobs
and switch jobs and switch careers and
do all kinds of things and I have a path
and a future for myself and my children
that does not require taking away from
other people in a low growth environment
all of the economics and all the
politics go zero sum because the only
way for me to do better is I have to
take away from you right or or to your
point the government exactly I
completely agree with you or what
happens is the government just inflates
and they and and they inflate because
they want to basically buy votes they
want to basically spend on programs and
they want to buy votes um and so so this
is this is sort of what I would say
which is like if if you want zero some
Poli zero some Smashmouth destructive
politics with the government playing a
bigger and bigger role you want low
technological devel you want a slow pace
of technological development if you want
positive some politics where people are
thrilled and excited about the future
and about their own opportunity and they
don't have to feel like they have to
take away from somebody else and they
don't need handouts from the government
because they're doing so well you want
rapid productivity growth right and so
that you said I'm saying like it's it's
the opposite of the fear that everybody
thinks that they have um I have many
other thoughts on your your question but
yeah let me let me pause there and see
which part you want to you wanted to get
to oh inflation let
ask yeah so inflation yeah so look I
would just say two things on inflation
it's actually pretty pretty interesting
so there's an overall concept of
inflation which is you said as growth of
the money supply but the but the but the
way that that plays out in the economy
is and they actually analyze it this way
it's it's basically a represent it's
it's basically way they think about it
is it's it's the it's the basket of
overall prices of everything in the
economy and the the the government
agency that calculates the rate of
inflation uses a basket of sort of
equivalent products over time to try to
get a sense of what's actually happening
with prices um and so there's there's
both the money supply aspect of
inflation and the government printing
press and and and all that and that's
totally true but what's actually
happened inside that is actually because
of differences in technology regulation
you actually have an really actually
historically unprecedented difference in
how different Industries are actually
inflating or deflating um and there's a
chart that we can maybe post for your
listeners that basically shows three
really big important sectors of the
economy which are Healthcare education
and housing where the prices are
skyrocketing which and by the way
everybody feels this right this is just
like okay you want to go buy a starter
home or you want to get good healthare
or you want to get your kid in a good
school the prices are going crazy I mean
the the the you know the you see this in
housing prices of course another version
of this is the you know higher education
you know a four-year college degree at a
private university now costs
$400,000 and is on its way to a million
dollars right that's crazy completely
crazy completely crazy so the the the
price of higher ed is just is
skyrocketing it the the price of higher
education bachelor's degrees master's
degrees is rising far faster than the
rate of inflation um and same thing as
healthcare costs are rising faster than
the rate of inflation and housing prices
are rising faster than the rate of
inflation but then you have all these
other sectors and these are sectors like
video games entertainment consumer
electronics by the way food cars which
is good retail you know consumer
products generally um those prices are
crashing right and so the things that
you can buy today versus 2030 40 years
ago for the same Dollar in those
category I just you know take obvious
take obvious examples music obviously
music to buy music 30 years ago you had
to go spend $15 to buy a CD and get 10
songs out of which you maybe wanted two
of the songs today $10 buys you Spotify
for a month and you have you know 10
million songs on demand and you can
listen to it 247 and it's and it's
fantastic right and so the price of
music has crashed right and so the price
of housing education and Healthcare has
skyrocketed the prices of everything
else is crashing what explains that well
the prices for everything that's
crashing number one they have rapid
technological change which is which is
driving down prices because of
productivity growth and they're not
regulated right nobody in the government
is price fixing
music right whereas housing education
and um healthare are incredibly highly
regulated and centrally controlled by
the government right and and and and
they have fixed Supply dictated by the
government um and they have very slow
rate of technological adoption right
it's almost impossible to get new
technology into the Healthcare System
into the education system or into
housing like the robots are not building
houses like it's not happening right
like it's just happening right um and so
what we have actually in the economy is
a diver I call these sort of the the
slow sectors versus the fast sectors the
the sectors for which prices are
skyrocketing because of slow technology
change and too much government
regulation and the sectors where prices
are crashing because of Rapid
technological advances um and um and and
and lack of government regulation and
when you chart these out there's you can
just like extrapolate the lines and so
the the the where this is happening is
you know within like a decade if the
current PRS continue within a decade a
four-year college degree is cost a
million dollars right and a flat screen
TV that covers your entire wall is going
to cost
$100 right and at some point you might
want to ask the question like isn't that
backwards right right like isn't what we
all you know is where I get very
emotional about this is like okay Define
the American dream right the American
dream and by the way for that you could
probably substitute this you know the
dream in many other countries but let's
just say the American dream the American
dream I want to I want to be I want to
buy a house for my family um I want to
be able to send my kids to a great
school and then I want my family to be
able to get great health great healthare
right like those are like the three
higher bits and those are the things
where we have wired our system is wired
right now to drive the prices of those
things to the
Moon right and then good news iPhones
and cars and digital music are plentiful
but they're not Healthcare education and
um uh and housing and and and this is
the other thing that's driving inflation
right because then what happens is the
the fast sectors of the economy with
prices are crashing they're shrinking as
a percentage of the economy right
because prices are falling so fast and
then because prices are growing so fast
for healthcare education and and and
housing they're becoming larger and
larger parts of the economy and so the
economy r large and people's pocketbooks
and how you spend your money it's being
eaten by these sectors that have slow
technology growth and and and and and
and therefore high price rapidly rapidly
Rising prices by the way once again if
you want to fix this problem what's the
way to fix this problem you inject a lot
more technology into those three sectors
right you would want completely
automated you know AI driven Healthcare
you would want like AI education you
know every kid having an AI tutor um
teacher um and you would want robust
building houses right you you if you
wedged full modern technology into those
three sectors you could crash prices
which would also crash inflation and
would cause everybody to be far better
off and so once again it's this thing
where you you think you don't want the
technology to change you actually very
very very much want the technology to
change and if we don't get the
technology change our politics for the
next 30 years are going to be so crazily
vicious right because we're all going to
be fighting over this shrinking pie and
we're just we're just going to we're
just going to hate how we have to live
so let me yeah let me pause do do you
think the benefits of AI will be so
overwhelming that there's just no way
for politicians to hide the ball or uh
will there be enough narrative in story
and being able to Leverage The
resentment that exists right now to uh
continue to forall that continue to grow
government keep it strong keep it big
yes let me give you a micro answer and a
macro answer so the micro answer so you
the the doc workers strike that just
happened um yeah so the doc workers just
went on strike um uh and they demanded
this huge raise they demanded a huge
raise and they demanded no more
technology at the docs uh they have this
they have this actually this dichotomy
of an argument they say our jobs are
like so backbreaking and arduous and
physically harmful to our workers that
like we need to be appreciated a lot
more and we want you to completely ban
the introduction of automation that
would basically Auto automate those jobs
so that our our workers don't have to do
them right and they they they kind of
make both sides of this argument like at
the same time because they're completely
contradict but contradictory but that
that's not their responsibility to
resolve it but the doc workers go on
strike um it it it it they were
literally asking for no more new
technology at the docs um to to to
preserve the the the the jobs it turned
out through that I discovered I just had
never looked at that industry before it
turns out there are 25,000 Dock Workers
in the US except that's not right
there's actually 50,000 Dock Workers in
the US there's 25,000 Dock Workers
actually work on the docs and then
there's 25,000 doc workers who who just
who don't work who just sit at home and
collect paychecks because of prior
agreements Banning automation what yes
whoa yes because in previous in previous
bargaining rounds they cut deals where
if there were introduction of like for
example M graines to uh to to to unload
containers from ships that those jobs
would not go away and so those jobs have
not gone away there's nothing for that's
crazy that is malpractice well so this
is the thing so this is the thing okay
so this is the classic thing on all
these things is that good or bad well it
depends who you are this is the there's
a pol political science there's concept
of of concentrated benefits and diffuse
harms and so for those 50,000 Dock
Workers this is great for the rest of us
it just makes everything we buy more
expensive right because it makes working
the docs more expensive right because
it's got all this dead weight right loss
on on on you know on chips which is a
big part of the cost of like all the
food we buy is more expensive as a
consequence of these kinds of
Arrangements but you know you and I pay
another you know 5 cents every time we
go to the supermarket as a consequence
of this versus the 50,000 people who are
organ in a union right and are able to
negotiate on their behalf right so so so
so con so right concentrated benefits to
the doc workers diffuse harms to the
rest of the economy and and every time
you get a special interest group in the
economy pleading for you know this kind
of employment protection that's what's
happening right they're basically trying
to create a cartel an employment cartel
that benefits the people in the cartel
at the expense of everybody else so
here's the here's the the macro version
of that is um 30% of the jobs in the
United States today require some form of
Occupational
licensing you you can't just get the job
you have to have some form of
certification that you're qualified for
the job this has been pushed to
extraordinary lengths in the united in
California you need I think it's it's
now it's like 900 Plus hours of
professional training to be a
hairdresser right yes correct uh you
need what yes you you cannot just like
start cutting people's hair for money no
no no no no no no that's illegal you
need to have a whatever cosmetology
certificate to get the COS
certificate you have to go to
hairdressing school to do that by the
way you have to get admitted at
hairdressing school it has to be a
certified hairdressing school by the way
guess who controls how many hairdressing
schools there can be is the you know the
current oh this is my favorite part let
me give you my favorite example this so
the university system so so federal
student loans there's there's federal
student loans for you to go to college
for you to go to college you basically
can't normal people you can't afford to
go to college if you can't get federal
student loans so you can't be a
university or colle