Kind: captions
Language: en
if you think you've seen it all think
again did Elon and V just use x to back
down the government are billionaires
blatantly rewriting the rules of
politics or are we the people simply
making the government afraid of us again
Trump says the government knows about
the drones and xci spy Andrew Bustamante
said on my own show that we should want
the government to keep secrets but are
they keeping the right ones AI is
certainly learning to lie you won't want
to miss this one and AI girlfriends just
got real cheap boys and girls thanks to
an unexpected sugar daddy power moves
hidden agendas mindblowing Tech that's
what we've got lined up for you today so
strap in lean forward and let me know
your thoughts in the comments this is a
wild one welcome to the Tom Bilu show
I'm Tom Bilu and I am joined by my
producer Drew who everybody thinks
routinely is a guest that I've had on
and won't let speak so Drew welcome to
the show how you doing man I'm doing
good how about you I'm excited I'm
nervous about what I tweet because
apparently it can get vetoed if he must
doesn't like it you got to you got to
watch out for that one yeah jumping
right into it I'm sure you heard about
this 1500 page spending bill it would
have added 110 billion to the deficit it
included everything from raises to
government employees all the way to
infrastructure bills and of course some
money to Ukraine uh Elon heard about it
V sent out this video let's check out
what v v had to say about it Congress is
about to pass a bill that blows away
your taxpayer money but they made it
over, 1500 pages long so you wouldn't
read it I did you a favor I read it for
you it's supposed to be about keeping
government operations open and providing
disaster relief Aid to hurricane victims
which I'm sympathetic to and if you read
the bill carefully it contains pay
raises for members of Congress and I'm
not making this up an expansion of their
federal health benefits it contains all
kinds of special interests and pork
funding including opening up a new
stadium in Washington DC it renews the
global engagement Center which is a key
node of the censorship industrial
complex and the worst part is they
didn't want you to know about any of it
and that's why they made this a last
minute Jam job the reason I'm co-head
doge is I think we need Outsiders to
bring actual accountability to
Washington DC so feel free to call your
congressman and let them know how you
feel about it Tom what was your first
reaction that the internet really vetoed
a bill I love it so um Mark andrees put
out a tweet that said who would have
guessed that we actually needed Twitter
more than we needed flying cars that
that whole famous thing about we were
promised flying cars and we got 140
characters from Peter teal I thought it
was a really brilliant take now where I
think people are going to go wrong with
this is they're going to read this as
billionaires are in here mucking about
with politics but the reality is they
simply brought attention to something
and then left the people to make up
their own mind and being able to
leverage social media to start a
conversation to get people really
talking about it is the way forward uh
I've not made a secret that I want AI to
get fine tuned so that it can read these
bills for us and break these things down
because I think V is absolutely correct
the reason that they make these bills as
ridiculously long as they do is to make
sure that you don't read them that is
all of us left right doesn't matter
where you are in the Spectrum you should
absolutely rail against anybody that is
trying to jam something through fast
knowing that you're not going to have
time to evaluate its merits so this is
at uh I don't know if it was Einstein
that actually said it but it's often
attributed to him if you can't explain
it simply you don't understand it and
when I'm at my worst I'm like thinking
in fractals and like trying to get my
arms around it which is fine because I
need to figure it out but I know when I
really understand something I can just
give it to you plain and simple and what
I'm hoping we're going to see between X
just taking a new place in the cultural
Zeitgeist as where we all come together
we debate things we bring things to the
surface we Community note something if
somebody's trying to spin it whatever so
that everybody can actually get that
very streamlined understanding of what
something is so that we're not
Bamboozled by the [ __ ] that people
are going to wrap into 1500 pages
anybody that puts forward something that
we're supposed to vote on quickly in
1500 pages should quite literally be
ashamed of themselves I'm not even
saying that you don't need 1500 pages
maybe you do probably not but let's
let's not argue that yeah but asking
people to digest 1500 pages quickly all
under the guise of oh if you don't do it
you're a bad person because people are
going to go without money over the
holidays like then put together a three
page thing that allows us to keep status
quo to hold us over until after the
holidays that's probably something you
could get P but when you try to jam
through 1500 pages of convoluted
nightmares that do things like create a
new stadium like how are people supposed
to figure that one out that's such a big
decision so there are many many things
in there that are worthy of debate uh if
I'm understanding things correctly
Congress hasn't had a raise since like
2009 or something so hey it might
actually be time to give them rais but
there's going to need to be a debate
around that like hey give them more
money but don't let them invest in the
stock market or give them more money but
don't let them become uh oh God what was
I just saw secular talk I think said
this on uh Twitter said
um uh don't let them oh become uh not
Consultants what do they call that when
they get out in fact pull it up really
fast go to secular talk on Twitter uh
who by the way takes a very aggressive
stance on a lot of things that I do not
normally resonate with but I love
following people that I disagree with so
that they can get me to look at things
from a different angle lobbyist uh
lobbyist there we go so without uh
letting them become lobbyist so it's a
very interesting idea to me that
warrants debate so my beef with all of
this is hiding things in really long
bills that that is egregious and that is
something that I hope stops and so
seeing this moment happen where they
said hey this is what's going on go vote
no um getting people to stop think about
it talk about it that's the play 100%
And I have to give you credit for this
because you really opened my eyes up
with first principles thinking and
things like that so it's like in the
year 2024 almost 2025 it doesn't take
1500 pages to say how you're going to
spend money no like and to just think
that that's the rule you can tell that
the government is being run by like
these lawyer s tactics how can I confuse
how can I distract how can I Rush that
is true that they're about to go on
break next week and you want us to
digest 1500 pages in 3 days of course
with getting all the other things done
it does have that manipulation kind of
as ECT into it um but you you kind of
nailed it on the head this is not a
right thing this is not a left thing
this is how the game is played how do
you feel about kind of those Rules of
Engagement in general do you think that
this should just now be an initiative
that all bills should be one page up top
never going to be able to do that like
you won't be you you want to make things
as simple as they can be but not any
simpler and so that really is a good
rule to live by you can over simplify
something and this has been my big
frustration if you want to step in front
of the camera you really want to be a
brand like if I'm in teach this to
people you want to be a brand and so you
really want to do be able to break
things down almost into bumper stickers
and the reason that I've resisted that
and and have paid the price in terms of
the size of growth of this channel is
that the thing that makes me respect
myself is giving people information that
allows them to navigate the world well
bumper stickers will make you feel
better because you feel like you
understand something you can repeat it
back to your friends but it's not
actually going to help you navigate the
world the world really does get messy
you really are up against the chaos
machine and so I get why bills are going
to need to be laid out well so that we
can cover the things that need to be
covered what they do as a tactic though
is they cram a whole bunch of stuff in
so that people will go oh God we have to
pass something like this is getting
ridiculous so I'm going to agree to
because I agree with 70% of this I'm
going to let the 30% slide that I hate
because we just have to get it forward
or I didn't even know that those things
were in there but it had the one thing
that I care about to get reelected and
that game is deranging and so
understanding that there's pathology on
both sides you can make something overly
complex and you can make something
overly simplistic and so giving people
the time to go through it giving them
things like AI that can go through break
it down till you hear the main points he
are the citation so you can go look at
the thing that is like a trigger for you
that you really want to be aware of uh
giving people a chance via something
like Community notes to say hey the way
the person is breaking this down that's
all spin you you want to let that happen
but uh and I this is beyond the scope of
today's episode but this is going to be
a theme that we'll talk about a lot
which is um the way that people want to
control the narrative this is something
we talked about in the episode with
Martin G the reason that the whole idea
of Elites exist is that there are people
who are smarter than you they can think
through this stuff better just let them
handle it and we're now living in a
world where you can actually just let
everyone talk let the dust settle where
it may let people make decisions some
people will be confused some people will
think through this well but you can
never trust any one person to think
through everything well and the idea of
the elites is these guys will always
think through it well and the thing is
co just showed us it just doesn't work
like that they get ideologically
captured and my bumper sticker is they
trust themselves too much and one of my
superpowers is when I believe something
I'm going to say I believe it I'm going
to say it as hard as I can but I also
want people to be skeptical of me the
last thing I would want is for people to
be like hey just tell me how to think
and and I'm going to think that way it's
like I don't even want that of myself
this is why I follow people that I don't
I don't typically agree with because I
want them to give me an angle on
something that I don't see so I think
the whole idea of the elites is wrong I
think trying to reestablish Elites is a
mistake Martin gur says that you're
going to hear Sam Harris say that I get
why they want that but I don't
understand how they looked at the train
wreck of covid that we all just live
through and we're like no no no we just
need to rebuild that it's like what the
[ __ ] how wrong does it have to go before
people go that system that way of doing
things is wrong it it can just yield
um really toxic results so yeah I'd love
to see people reject that I'm not saying
that X is the perfect system or that
social media is the perfect system but
the second you find yourself wanting to
tell other people to shut up you're the
bad guy 100% I see where you got that
and it's I was watching Napoleon the
Ridley Scott movie recently and they
were talking about beheadings and then
you know they uh beheaded Maria antoin
in the beginning and it was just so
funny seeing how government used to be
ran and how the government was kind of
scared of the people it reminded me of
the tweet that you had about make the
government scared again and it's a bit
ironic now that the government is trying
to deceptively push through this bill to
your point 70% of it could be sunshine
and rainbows but there is a 30% that is
debatable and then they spin it and they
reframe the conversation as you guys are
messing up Government funding for people
in front and it's like wait wait wait
wait wait we should be telling you guys
what to do not the other way around
corre I don't want to go back to the
beheadings but there is this this switch
I'm very happy to hear that Drew but
there is a switch between you work for
us versus I'm telling you what you need
to learn just trust me to your point so
it's it's it's interesting how we kind
of got to the other way yeah I mean so
we're going through a fascinating thing
with our Channel now so for a long time
I thought of my YouTube audience as an
audience and that it worked man it it
built a multi Million Dollar business
and it's been great and now what I've
realized is even if it's just that the
world is changing I like to think that
I'm just now seeing things from a better
angle but whether it's that or the
world's changing treating it like a
community is far better where it's like
I want people to say in the comments
what they think uh when I hit a million
Subs I stopped reading the comments
there was just so much [ __ ] to weade
through about how goofy my ears look and
oh Tom looks sick I just like it gets
really old really fast and switching my
mentality to this is a Community this is
a community that I'm in as much as I'm
uh trying to be a a gravitational Center
because I am right I'm trying to be that
thing around which the community is
revolving but I would never want to be
the only community that somebody's in
and I would never want the people in the
community to just shut up and take
whatever I give them I I'm now in the
comments every day I'm reading there's
just too many to read them all but I
read a lot and I'm responding a lot and
that switch is the kind of switch that I
want to see happen in the government in
the modern era where it's no longer I'm
an elite you shut up you do what I say
you're my audience uh it is I'm here to
serve you I'm in the middle of the
circle for sure but I want to have to
convince you and I want to be open to
being convinced by you and I want you to
be proud of what I represent now as a
thinker you have to beware of audience
capture anyway beyond the scope of
today's episode but that's the dance is
you have to be willing to stand for
something and in standing for that you
get this community around you but at the
same time you have to understand that
this is a two-way street it is a
feedback loop you cannot become captured
by it so that you're just telling the
community what they want to hear you
have to be prepared to offer true
leadership otherwise why are people
revolving around you um but it's it is a
dance you you have to listen as well as
speak I love it I love it can we move on
to that Trump quote he said something
really interesting in a press conference
about preemptive strikes with Iran and
it kind of triggered our recent conf
with Andrew bante check this clip out
let me know what you think against ir's
nuclear I tell you that would you I mean
it's a wonderful question but how can I
am I going to do preemptive strikes why
would I say that can you imagine if I
said yes or no you'd say that was
strange that he answered that way am I
going to do preemptive strikes on
Iran is that a serious question how
could I answer a question like that
there is that point of we want this
transparency X is trying to get people
to to be honest with us but you do have
to kind of Hold Your Hand a little bit
so where is that line you think man that
this one's tough so there's no Universe
in which you can play the game of
international power relationships and
remember at the international level
there is only Anarchy there is only
Anarchy and people will take from you
what they can take and failing to
understand that because we're living in
this period of just unprecedented
prosperity and safety uh people forget
that there are people that will kill you
and take your [ __ ] so uh dude the the
this is why I wish more people would
read history like when you really read
what has happened throughout history
like gask Khan whoa that will curl your
hair dude it is terrifying and when you
understand that's people today as well
like that's not some long ago thing
that's just we have built this
International order that holds things
more or less in check but it is a game
of power and when you are weak people
will take advantage and so when you're
playing the international game of power
and Anarchy is the Only Rule then you
can't play your hand like even though
you may want to communicate to your
people uh the second you're telling your
people what you're going to do then your
adversaries are going to hear that and
they're going to be able to um adjust
accordingly and and plan ahead and deal
with that so uh you really do have to
keep some things a secret do I think you
have to lie I don't know man the honest
answer is I don't know if you have to
lie I do know that you're going to have
to to keep secrets and I'm very glad
that I'm not in the position of being
the person that has to make that
decision but um I'm not willing to plant
to flag and say at the government level
that you aren't going to lie from time
to time but when I see something like
the drones going on then I get really
unnerved because this is one of those
things that you've at at a minimum
you've got to come out and say we know
what they are you're going to have to
trust that we're doing the right thing
because the more times that you spin a
story that we later find out is
inaccurate this is exactly how you erode
your credibility as the institutions as
the elite and so there has to be some
level of you have to earn trust over
time in fact thinking about it that that
is the play now how you do what I'm
about to say uh huge question but you've
got to earn trust and then cash in on
that trust and so if you come out and
say listen we are well aware of the
drones we will take the right actions to
keep you safe and prosperous America and
so right now I'm just going to ask that
you trust me now the problem is if you
have abused that trust as many times as
they have now you've got a problem but
the reality is we are in a
is it fair to call it a cold war it
probably is we are in what is either a
true cold war with China or we're about
to be in a true cold war with China and
so there is going to be a lot of spying
and Intel and all that stuff and back in
the 80s the stakes felt really high so
there was a level of trust that you
extended to the government and it's just
been so eroded man we've just over the
last four years alone it's just been so
weird so many lies and the thing I
always come back to is why do they lie
so much like there are times that they
will just tell a lie that is so blatant
that like my eyebrows roll back into the
back of my head and the one that just
got me where I was like wait like this
is that out in the open is um masks
don't work so if you could just save
them for the Frontline workers that
would be great so I was like which is it
do masks not work or do we need to save
them and so I would much rather they
come out and say look masks are what we
believe right now we're going to save
lives these people on the front lines
please do the right thing let me feel
patriotic that like I'm doing it that
yeah I'm G to take that risk so that
these people who are fighting for all of
us because it could be my mom or my dad
that gets sick and I want to make sure
those guys are taken care of now I can
feel good that like I'm I'm on the team
I got it I get what I have to do but if
you lie to my face I'm like what the
actual [ __ ] so I started asking why do
they do that and here is the horrifying
answer drew it
works it works the reason people
manipulate is people are
manipulatable and so now we're in a game
where it's like people are going to do
what they're going to do not realizing
that they're burning their own
credibility they're creating this own
sense of chaos and so I mean this just
Loops back around to that Elite saying
where it's like we have to have
institutions we have to have Elites that
we can trust wouldn't that be nice and
so if they can get back to that where I
actually can trust them then yes I will
trust them but if they act in a way that
I can clearly see is not in my best
interest that they're treating me like a
fool uh I'm not and so when that happens
on mass you've got problems and people
have to remember For Better or Worse
baby we are right now America is the
[ __ ] country and so if we want to
look at this as an individualistic
Society versus a collectivist society
America versus China then hey I know
what side of that I'm on and these two
things are going to come to a head and
we're going to see which of those works
but we are an individualistic society
and so you have to deal with us as such
and to pretend that you can suddenly
just cram us into uh a collectivist
shoot it's not going to work yeah I
agree I'm I'm conflicted though because
it's the one example I could kind of
think of is one time um my nephew was uh
visiting me and my daughter we were
hanging out my nephew loves like Hershey
chocolate bar he grabbed the Hershey
chocolate bar gave it to my daughter she
loved it we went to the store she was
asking me for Hershey chocolate bars
like every other day after a while I was
like no you can't have any why can't I
have any well if you eat too many of
these to get juvenile diabetes and it's
going to be a whole big thing and she
literally from that moment like stopped
eating candy for like 3 weeks and one
time I like brought one home like here I
got you this and she like looked at it
nervously and was like well I don't want
to get D and I was like oh like in me
telling her the absolute truth it it
kind of hurt her in the short term so
now she ran away from Candy now RFK is
probably applauding in the comments I
guess that's the right answer but there
is this line of we can't be too truthful
because it might scare our citizens to
go the other way so it would have been
better for me to be like because I said
so I'll get you some later and
technically that would have been a lie
because I'm withholding the information
so it's like this weird you have to be
truthful but you can't be too truthful
because you don't want the public to
overreact but then I can't be too
guarded because the Public's going to
distrust me so it's a very fine line so
I don't have like you exist in the chaos
machine it's crazy so yeah it it is
literally crazy uh but the reality is
there you find yourself everything is
trade-offs Thomas shout out to Thomas
Soul who said There Are No Solutions
there are only tradeoffs and that's just
true man and so this is I think you can
mark the the up until maybe uh four
years ago when it really did feel like
people started waking up um you could
paint a picture that there was this sort
of utopian end that we could get to but
the reality is I think everybody is
coming to understand this is all a
trade-off and so there's no binary right
or wrong answer there was only I'm going
to do this thing and get this result do
this thing and get that result and I'm
going to test to see which one has the
least downsides the most upside but
there isn't going to be anything that is
pure upside literally nothing and so
once we all Embrace that in fact if we
could get everybody to embrace that we'd
be in a much better position now it's
just let's talk about the trade-offs
let's say okay if we do this what are
going to be the second and third order
consequences and by the way know that we
will not see this perfectly and since I
know I can't see this perfectly I'm
going to adjust if this goes wrong and
this brings me back to my soap box which
I will Mount which is kpis key
performance indicators the government
has to have them if you're a parent you
have to have kpis right so uh what do I
want to see happen with my kids so um
them feeling safe is probably a kpi that
most parents care deeply about them
feeling good about themselves is a kpi
that parents care deeply about for sure
that they're going to have a hopeful
future that they are prepared to do well
in this very difficult World okay well
if you start doing things that does
doesn't yield that then I hope that you
would change direction and if you do
wonderful no one's going to get it right
every time and if you
don't therapy bills therapy bills they
be coming your
way
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[Music]
opus.one to ban Tik Tok we kind of
talked about it it went under the rug
the deadline is now like upon Upon Us
January 2025 will be the official date
uh January 18th 2025 is the official
date where Tik Tok will get banned
Google and apple will have to remove it
from their uh app stores and the 170
million Americans will not have access
to it new updates things like that now
of course if it's already downloaded
it's not going to disappear off your
phone I'm sure there's some type of
backend restrictions they'll put in
place but this is affecting a lot of
people a lot of creators a lot of small
businesses Tik Tok is claiming this is a
violation of free speech the government
is claiming that this is China
infringing on its rights because Tik Tok
takes all of your information off the
phone where do you kind of fall in on
the Tik Tok ban well so China saying
that this violates something that's a a
little crazy uh given that they do the
same thing uh I know I think at one
Google backed out of China right because
they were so restrictive can't remember
where Facebook stands on that but China
just has absolutely no problem so that
that wacky I'll take umbrage with that
uh do I think it violates free speech I
do not think it violates Free Speech
because they said you can sell it to an
American owner and we're good so it's
not them trying to stop Tik Tok from
being used it's them trying to stop
information from going back to China if
I'm right that we are either already in
a cold war or racing towards one and we
know that China or what is known as a
fast follower so they're not great at
Innovation not compared to the us but
they are very good at watching what we
do and then
getting like better in terms of
efficiencies on top of that um so Kaiu
Lee talked about this he's a AI guy I
believe he is from China I've actually
had him on the show before a long time
ago but um I think that's true it you
can really do incredible things as a
fast follower Microsoft is known as a
fast follower so a um Apple would
innovate Microsoft would fast follow so
uh I don't say fast follower as a
derogatory term but if I'm America and I
know oo if I can cut off their access to
some of our stuff that's probably for
the best and if the weather balloons and
potentially the drones I know nothing
about what these drones are literally no
inside information but is it very
possible that it's a foreign adversary
such as China using it to collect data
of course and if they knew they could
get away with it they would as we would
we would map the inside of everybody's
home in China if we could let's be
really honest and so the only thing that
stops is when you put something in place
to block it and so cold Wars are marked
by economic Warfare by this political
gamesmanship by all this stuff behind
the scenes I mean this is literally spy
versus spy territory when you're in a
cold war you're doing everything you can
to avoid a hot War but man you're going
at it behind the scenes hardcore you're
training hot women to go seduce people
in the government and key like sectors
it is crazy like even oh God what's his
name the Veritas guy basically just gets
really attracted people to take mid mid
looking guys out to dinner and wear a
low cut dress and be like yo tell me
more about your company Secrets it's
crazy people will be manipulated as long
as they are manipulatable and let me
tell you an attractive woman sque
squeezes a region of a man's brain that
is
hysterical hysterical a hot woman can
get a guy the average guy to do the
dumbest [ __ ] in the world I will once
again I so want to get him on the show I
feel terrible bringing this up all the
time but the fact that Jeff B sent to
dickpic will never cease to amuse me
Jeff I would fall forward too man I'm
telling you uh I get it I get it I get
it if I wasn't married I would be a
right mess but oh God anyway all of that
stuff is going to play out it is it's
going to get wild where do you think
people people go if Tik Tok gets banned
do you think this is gonna be like a
mass Exodus to other apps you think yeah
in in the short term so first of all
shout out to all the creators that are
going to suffer from this I get it if
YouTube disappeared overnight I would
not be a happy camper
uh but it creates an opportunity for
somebody else to come along mimic the
algorithm so whether um Instagram sucks
everybody up and and offers new things
more Tik Tock like algorithm or just the
youth flow into Instagram but it'll
probably be something new there's going
to be a lot of people fighting for the
space appealing to the kids and I'll be
interested to see if this goes through I
don't know why my brain just simply
can't accept it it it just could be that
I'm I'm still living 10 years ago um
when China was not sort of the open
adversary that they become now um yeah
part of me is still going to be
surprised if this actually happens
because it's used by so many people but
if it does it it it will be a blip that
will hurt a lot of creators temporarily
and then someone else will pick
everybody up it it will be very
temporary copy that and they have one
more chance they're being their case be
being brought up by the Supreme Court
early next year so we'll find out by m
January whether or not we could still
Tik Tok we will indeed get those
choreographs in while you still got them
all right moving on to the economy the
FED just announced a0 25 rate reduction
the markets immediately sold off the S&P
500 dropped 3% the FED announced that
they see four quarterly Cuts in 2025 two
more in 2026 and one more in 2027 for
ideal rate of 3% right now we're at 425
M how do you feel about the rat cut and
the Market's
response so the rate cut is almost
certainly because the market was already
expecting it and the FED doesn't want to
disappoint and so they needed
opportunity to cut and then communicate
and I think the the downsizing in the um
stocks is because they didn't like what
they communicated so in them saying
basically uh we don't have inflation
under control yet we're going to keep
going until we get inflation under
control and we're going to have fewer
Cuts than people were expecting the
Market's like huh either they see
something we don't or the markets
themselves see that we have a softer
economy than people want to believe but
they got the Trump BM
and we're looking for that moment of
like okay here's the news you sell the
news as the saying goes and so the news
came out people sold off and it is to be
expected the thing that I find unnerving
is we've had the most consecutive days
of being down uh in the stock market
since like the great I think even we we
had even more consecutive down days than
we had in the Great Depression so uh
this has not been a great run so then I
start asking questions okay what is it
that investors are feeling and I have a
feeling it went something like this
everybody knows that the economy right
now is trash this is why they voted for
Trump everyone's like bro this sucks I
don't care what you say I don't care
what kind of Top Spin you try to put on
this just from an everyday life
perspective this is no bueno and so we
want a new
Administration the new Administration
tons of excitement they get voted in we
all feel the energy you've even got
Democrats who were like look I was sad
to lose but like even I'm kind of
feeling good like there's just a
jubilent mood that's around I can feel
it everybody can feel but that's only
going to last for so long and so it is
entirely possible that the enthusiasm
just couldn't carry forward to Trump
actually getting in office and so some
of it may just be the natural
inclination to getting accustomed to
that high and then suddenly the high
doesn't feel like a high anymore and now
it's like oh even just the couple months
that it takes Trump to take office is a
long time and so if I can get everybody
to conceive of the stock market as a
casino
they will be in way better shape now
it's a weird Casino though it's a casino
that has everything to do with the house
is other people and so now what you're
betting on is how will that other person
feel about the stocks that I hold that's
it that's the whole [ __ ] game man and
people think there's something more
going on but I'm telling you right now
it's just a cover story let's see how
many people I can piss off with this
analysis all right here's how I think
this is what I think the stock market
really is M all right I've got money and
I want to find a way to make my personal
number go up and I understand that the
cover story is that I get ownership in
your business but think about how many
people are actually playing that game
virtually none this is why black rock is
so powerful because you buy stock
through Black Rock and then don't pay
attention at all to the fact that you
actually own a piece of that business
some people may not even realize that a
lot of those stocks give you voting
rights and things like that nobody pays
attention except Black Rock and so they
aggregate all that voting power black
rock is playing the cover Story game but
the vast majority of humanity is just
going I have a baseball card I have a
Tesla baseball card and I believe that
my Tesla baseball card is going to go up
in value and so I have a number in my
head and if it goes up to that number
then I sell it because it's it's just a
baseball card and it doesn't [ __ ]
matter now again I get for some people
it matters it's a very tiny percentage
and by the way by the way Drew why did
the people that play the game at the
voting level why do they care do they
want better cars Drew no they want
number go up they don't give a [ __ ] cars
robots whatever I have a baseball card
I'm just voting on how the [ __ ]
on my baseball card plays his career so
that other people we want to buy the
baseball card that's all it is and I can
bet against that baseball card going
down like I think it's going to go down
I don't even need to own the baseball
card I'm just gonna bet against it with
all the derivative stuff that people
do once you understand that then this
game gets interesting now let me really
explain the cover story thing because I
know I'm going to get lit up in the
comments I at least want to get lit up
for the right reasons I call it a cover
story because if you're going to
convince the government to allow you to
sell these things that you can raise
Capital to grow your company mhm you're
going to say hey we're the very thing
that creates the GDP of the country
which is true you want good companies
you want strong companies creating jobs
creating products getting money moving
around that the government then is going
to be able to tax and do amazing
infrastructure things to make you the
strongest country in the world so people
can't [ __ ] with you because at the
international level you're playing a
game of Anarchy okay Tom is not a
Libertarian Tom likes government Tom
likes small government but he likes
government cool I want you to keep me
safe I want you to protect my personal
property yay government so now that
becomes a cover story we're the people
that build these companies that generate
the GDP that allow us to be the greatest
nation on earth and the government goes
cool I'm going to let you sell all this
stuff let people bet for against up left
down right sideways all that great but
the reality is people have a certain
amount of money in the bank account they
want their number to be higher than
yours that's it that's the game and once
you stop letting people obfuscate it
with a bunch of fancy words and you
understand what it is now you can engage
with it or not engage with it as you see
fit the only problem is just because I
can't say all this without saying the
final nail in the coffin you know it's
coming uh the government is stealing
your money through inflation and because
they're doing that not only are you
playing against the other players you're
playing against the ultimate house which
is the government and they will take all
your money if they can you simply need
look at what has happened to the
purchasing power of the dollar in the
last 100 years it's gone down by like
99.9% it's crazy it's Drew Drew they've
taken almost all of it through
inflation we need to do like a drinking
game that every time you say inflation
people people will die of blood alcohol
poisoning we will kill everybody
watching the show drew that is a
terrible idea we will kill you all one
by one we shall see you have called the
stock market gambling and I've been
pushing back against it so I want people
in the comments to know I'm team I like
no that's not it that's not it but the
more you break it down the more you talk
about it I do see the layer like okay at
least now I see how you got from point A
to point B so I can respect your view
perspective if I know where it comes
from I can at least say okay I get why
he thinks that way it it is the only way
to think it it literally the only way to
think you'll see me this say this to uh
the biggest names in finance and you can
see it makes them a little uncomfortable
there's nothing to push back on you are
saying I want to buy that because I
think the number's going to go up and
the risk is that the number goes down
and that's why they call treasuries the
risk-free yield because a treasury the
government at least in like dollar terms
like if you give them $100 they
guarantee to give you a 100 back now the
unsaid thing is I may have to print that
money and thusly steal some of your
purchasing power to give you that 100
back but I will give you the 100 back
and so that's quote unquote risk-free
it's not all the way risk-free but it's
as close as you're going to get
especially if it's a US Treasury because
they are the world Reserve currency and
so they can print and everybody else
just [ __ ] takes it God the more I I
really tried to compose a killer tweet
on this yesterday and after like 20
minutes I was like I'm just not going to
be able to say this in a cool way but uh
man the reality is that this this whole
game is all about the government forcing
you to become a gambler because they can
inflate your money away and that they're
just they just take your buying power oh
man it really winds me up it's it's I
love how you said that too where it's
like they guarantee they'll give you
that $100 back even even though you only
have $97 like dollar purchasing power
but it still says 100 on it and I still
told you it was risk free and I gave it
back to you but now you can't buy nearly
as much things as you could have bought
correct which is why gas used to be five
cents um all right man uh moving on uh
AR and crypto uh Zar David saxs ar ar I
think we mean ai ai a I mean he's
getting into AR I'll take it we do need
the AR are uh rest in peace to the
school shooter in uh it uh not the AR I
was thinking about that's hilarious we
when we speak we cannot help but reveal
ourselves I'm thinking augmented reality
and you're thinking
AR-15 that is hilarious that's hilarious
that's like people in the comments were
were absolutely smashing me in the
Michael sailor episode because I was
like Riot games is like uh into mining
or whatever it was Bitcoin mining and
people like ah this guy has no idea I
don't know who the minors are come on
bro I I uh am building a video game
context is everything all right let's
try that again Ai and cryptos are David
sax sent out this Banger tweet and we
argued before we started the show about
this so I'm really curious to see your
opinion on it but let's read the Tweet
AI models would get extremely good at
deceiving humans if we teach them to lie
which is what woke AI is doing trust and
safety should be replaced with truth and
safety for a context there was a report
just released that AI models can
sometimes hallucinate which is what I
calling a very big word for lie to you
you say it's good for them to
hallucinate I already don't like AI but
you and chat really you don't like AI
what's happing right now it's trying to
kill people character AI is trying to
kill all of our teenagers chat gbt has
lied to me I gave it some therapy for it
it told me to quit my job and move home
did it really it did okay I hate AI now
[ __ ] AI what are you talking about so
there's a lot of different I have
conflicting emotions with AI but going
to you you're you told me earlier that
it's good for AI to lie to us cuz just
you keep saying that you keep saying
let let here's what I said one David
Sachs Banger tweet long longtime
listener first- time caller like amazing
love this guy uh I think that is
absolutely correct truth and safety is
the right answer you absolutely must
have ai trained to be maximal truth
seeking okay you cannot have ai lie to
you that is very different than AI
hallucinating AI hallucinating if we can
tame it
could could become the thing that allows
AI to be creative enough to go beyond
what humans already understand so right
now ai is a uh synthesization machine so
it
goes this is what humans have said every
angle Every Which Way recognizes all the
patterns inside of it and so you can ask
hey what tell me about the stock market
whatever right and then you can ask hey
Tom keeps calling the stock market
gambling why does he say that and it
will give you an answer but then you can
also say why is Tom stupid and then it
will give you another answer now it's
just hitting things from different
angles and the angles that it's going to
approach things are largely decided by
the way that they are biased by the
creator of that AI now the biasing of AI
is terrifying because now once you get
into an AI if you assume every that it's
telling you is true you really are being
manipulated by the people that created
that that AI okay I I don't want that I
want people to at a minimum have to
disclose their biases this is how we did
it or let's have 880,000 different AI so
that we can find the way that we like to
be biased whatever like humans are a
biased creature you have to have a frame
of reference a frame of reference by its
nature is biased none of us see the
world accurately but the appeal that I
make to everybody is you should be
looking for the truth because I
literally Define the truth as the thing
that has the truth not truth like or
truth approximations the truth is the
thing that has 100% predictive
validity 100% predictive validity that's
the truth now the truth is very hard to
find very hard very hard to Define
there's a famous conversation between
Sam Harris and Jordan pet where they
literally just couldn't come to an
agreement on what truth is okay whatever
you think about those two they as far as
humans go they are able to really
process data very rapidly and very well
and even they could not figure out keep
in mind we don't even understand the
laws of physics which would be ultimate
literal truth 100% predictive validity
so given that we are not good at
identifying the truth everything is
going to have a bias everything is going
to have an angle but you should be
pushing the AI to be maximum truth
seeking meaning it is seeking the
answers that that have 100% predictive
validity it will be hard but that's what
they should be pursuing
hallucinations is about Connections
there is a reason that AI is best
understood as a pattern seeking machine
it finds the patterns and therefore can
predict what the next character in a
word should be and that's really all
it's doing and yet it comes up with this
incredible stuff that feels like logic
but it's really just giving you high
predictive validity within a context
okay if we can get hallucinations to
work in the same way that taking a
mushroom allows people to have these
really shocking insights about the world
and by the way most of them are total
[ __ ] most of the hallucinating that
an AI is going to do is going to be
total [ __ ] but if every now and then
by hallucinating it's able to make a
leap in logic that we were otherwise
unable to make that connection because
otherwise AI is simply looking backwards
in time and it's not looking forward and
I'll liken it to the Einstein saying
that imagination is more important than
knowledge right now ai only has
knowledge it has no imagination now if
AI can hallucinate in the way that
humans Daydream it might be able to do
things like the thought experiment that
Einstein did about being on a train
that's moving at the speed of light and
what would happen if you turned on a
flashlight and that gives like all these
cascading insights of who what would
happen so Einstein wasn't able to reach
into the past and pull out any patterns
that already existed he had a leap in
logic and we live for those leaps and
logic because they are the things that
then oh my God this has more predictive
validity than any of our old patterns so
at some point AI is either going to
Peter out because it will only be able
to tell you the patterns in human
knowledge or it's going to make leaps
forward because it can hallucinate and
make new connections between things that
we had never made a connection before
again uh before previously and so this
is why psychedelics are so pushed by
many people I've never done them full
disclosure but that's why a lot of
people get excited about it is they feel
like I never would have made that
connection before and it's a small
percentage but when I come back to the
real world that that percentage of of
unique connections that have utility in
the real world they were worth going on
this very difficult trip okay cool I'm
here for that now I don't know if we
will ever be able to confine AI to say
oh I am now hallucinating I'm now
daydreaming versus I know these things
to be at least truth approximations and
if we cannot make that definition if we
cannot know when AI is hallucinating
versus when it's actually telling us a
truth or a truth approximation then it
won't work and now you're in a bad spot
but what I was trying to explain earlier
is there is a very big difference
between AI being trained to lie to me
black Nazis and AI hallucinating but
knowingly
so how do we dispel the difference
between those two right now you can't
and that's why this is high risk but
there there is a bigger problem which is
people are
knowingly putting their political biases
into the AI and why are they doing that
Drew they're doing it because they the
people making the AI believe that they
are right they believe that they see the
world in the right way they have lost
sight of the fact that everything is a
trade-off and they think if everybody
would just live the way that I want to
live we would usher in a Utopia and I
don't know how to break people out of
that man it really freaks me the [ __ ]
out and it seems like the smarter people
get the more they want people to listen
to them and so it is entirely possible
that if I'm ever going to add any value
to the human race it will be because I'm
right on the bubble of Dumb and smart
and so I've scared myself enough times
by seeing something poorly that I'm like
woo I cannot even when I feel 100%
correct I cannot trust myself and then
I've been right enough to know oo if I
push this if I figure out the parts that
are wrong and identify the parts that
are right [ __ ] man I can change change
my life and the difference between the
path I was going down in my life before
I realized I could get better and now
long down this path of just constantly
improving constantly distrusting myself
and thinking this probably isn't 100%
true I can probably get a little bit
better a little bit better uh obviously
it's opened incredible doors financially
emotionally spiritually my relationships
just everything has gotten better but it
really is an echo of I distrust what I
believe to be true
I'm G to I I hear
you my my response is all right humans
are fundamentally flawed humans make AI
so isn't it just a matter of time
between be before the AI that the humans
make is flawed like AI is flawed already
100% so we're I think there is always
going to be
this Brokenness to it and I think I
understand what you're saying in the
sense that imagination is good for
breakthroughs we can't figure out how to
get to Mars because there is a gap
between our knowledge of physics and
what and what it takes to get there so
hopefully AI can run these simulations
out a rate that the human brain can't
process so we can help us close that Gap
but I feel like that's 2% o