Kind: captions
Language: en
tomorrow the president is going to get a
briefing from the CIA on his desk what
should be in that
briefing that's a great question uh it's
it's going to be uh a different briefing
than it was yesterday which is it goes
without saying but at the same time what
we're finding in the intelligence
Community both publicly and non-publicly
is that assessments have not been
accurate for about two and a half years
now intelligence assessments have not
been accurate if you recall America Mis
assessed what was going to happen in
Afghanistan with the withdrawal America
did not correctly assess how fast Russia
and Ukraine was going to resolve America
did not anticipate what was going to
happen between Israel and Hamas let
alone Israel's incursions then into
Lebanon and now into the Golan Heights
and for sure the United States was
unprepared for what happened in Syria
over the last two to three weeks so the
big question is why are the assessments
wrong and how do you fix that moving
forward now one thing that's not being
talked about in the press that should be
talked about in the Press is that ever
since 9911
we've known as a federal government that
one of the most vulnerable points for
American National Security is the
transition period between the end of one
election and the emergence of a new
president the first 100 days of a new
president so 911 happened during that
window what we're seeing right now is
that window has presented itself again
and inside of that window what have you
seen you've seen the oresnik come out of
Russia you've seen Ukraine start firing
American weapons you've seen Biden
approve more money than uh than he
believes Trump will approve you've seen
Syria completely change uh hand handoff
and take over you've seen Israel make
incredible progress in the Golan Heights
we're seeing people exploiting what is
now known as a vulnerable period for
America what else are we yet to see
because January 6th is when the new
president is ratified but there's still
generally another 100 days after that
before they start taking active charge
so whatever the current CIA is seeing
director Burns is
seeing has got to be speaking about
assessments that he doesn't trust and
the incoming CIA director ratliffe most
likely has also has to be preparing for
the fact that he doesn't know if he can
trust the assessments he's getting
that's interesting so in in that
situation what what can Ratcliffe do to
figure out uh not even figure out what
can Ratcliffe do to to be able to trust
the agents in the field it's not a
problem with the agents in the field and
this is a great thing that we're seeing
with cash Patel the uh nominee for the
FBI director one of the things
non-publicly again that's happening but
people don't see it happening is that
Donald Trump is bringing in people that
are publicly known but not necessarily
qualified for the positions that he's
nominating them for and that's got the
world in an uproar and the media is
talking about that what the media is not
talking about is the incredible amount
of effort that's happening on the back
end where Trump is trying to build
advisory panels that are very
knowledgeable about the topics so he
essentially wants his cronies to come in
and support him in their positions but
he's backfilling them with advisers that
know what the hell they're talking about
this isn't a new model this is something
that's been happening ever since the the
second George Bush that we know of where
they bring in cronies but then they
support the cronies with advisers it's
just happening in a different way with
Donald Trump so cash batala's cominging
and he's made it very clear he doesn't
trust the senior echelons of FBI and his
efforts to try to Route out troubled or
or troubl uh factors at FBI is really
going to be looking at the leadership of
FBI not looking at the rank and file
ratliff's doing the same thing he knows
that the working level field operator
field analyst field tech Ops person
hasn't been politicized yet they're
they're still ideologically predisposed
to serving Amer interests it's not until
3 four five tours in 12 15 years of
service that you start thinking well how
do I maximize my retirement how do I get
to the top of the food chain before I
punch out how do I because that's when
you start having kids that are in high
school age getting onto college that's
when you start having your first or
second divorce that you're trying to
fund it becomes difficult the first or
second divorce you're trying to fund I
mean that's a realistic way to look at
it it's hard it's hard when you are a
field operator you do three phenomenal
tours you don't have any problem making
$80,000 a year to live in Washington DC
or or capitals around the world and then
you come back to a spouse that's
disappointed because for the last 10
years you've picked a different spouse
over that person you've picked a career
over your partner and then there's a
divorce and then you lose half your net
worth and then you're 40 years old
making $90,000 a year but everything's
cut in half and your spouse takes it and
everybody you love and one you believe
in is gone and you're left with a career
so you rebuild again and you double down
in that career those are the people that
become the problem because those are the
people who rise up in power through a a
process that we call writing coattails
some people call it having a rabbi some
people call it having a Godfather you're
not the most qualified you're just loyal
to the person above you who's loyal to
the person above them who's loyal to the
person above them all of a sudden the
people in their last 10 years of service
are much less loyal to the American
people than the people in the first 10
years of their career Ratcliffe I think
knows that cash Patel knows that so as
they come in from the outside they can
kick the Hornet's Nest with very little
cause for repercussion H so what becomes
the play how do they do this well how do
we solve the deep deep State problem so
first I I don't like to call it the Deep
State problem I think it's more of a uh
inefficiency government incompetence
problem because it's not about
meritorious service it's not about
having skills in your job that take you
up to the top it's about who you're
loyal to that takes you up to the top
that becomes the exact same problem that
we see people criticizing in Russia in
Israel in Iran where leadership doesn't
want to brief up the truth they don't
want to tell their senior leaders bad
news because they're afraid they're
afraid that if I brief up bad news I'll
be held accountable or if I breath up
bad news I'll be punished or whatever
else I won't be in the rabbis good
graces anymore so I'll get kicked out
well what do you think led to all the
bad Assessments in the intelligence
arena for the United States over the
last two years so you're saying the
people on the front line they get what's
going on they report what's going on but
then people are afraid of the messenger
being killed and so they lie sort of
here's let me I'm gonna get too much in
the weeds so that you can pull me out to
where it's helpful yeah a field operator
will write on average between two and
four reports a day right so a field core
collector they're called for CIA will
write between two and four reports a day
those two and four reports that are
written are written to be delivered to
Langley Virginia headquarters for CIA
but they won't get to Langley for
between 48 and 21 or two days and three
days because for the next two to three
days they'll sit in the queue in their
field office and be edited by middle
management edited to say what middle
management wants to make sure langly
hears but is different than what
actually happened right is it uh is it
as innocent as spin or is it really I
got to find a way to say this that's not
going to raise the blood pressure of my
godfather uh it's three things really
their spin to make sure that they can
secure more funds for operations in the
future so if I'm having a mediocre
operation it might get spun to sound
more optimistic so that we can secure
funding next quarter to for the
continuation of this operation so there
is spin then there's also we don't want
to raise eyebrows we don't want to raise
blood pressure so we'll dampen down a
little bit of the more concerning parts
and we'll amp up a little bit of the
more comforting parts so now we might
tamper down the fact that the case
officer didn't do a complete SDR or the
case officer uh you know didn't fulfill
a report about something else whatever
will damp down the bad news pump up the
good news so that it just kind of skates
through Langley and then the third piece
is that what we want to do is we also
want to make sure that we don't uh we
don't give anybody the impression that
we're doing something wrong because the
last thing that Senior Management wants
in the field is somebody at Langley to
come back and say what are you thinking
letting this person do this or do that
so receipts expenses how many operations
they're doing in a week how many
operations they're doing in a day all of
that will get kind of massaged so
there's a lot of massaging that happens
before it even leaves the field office
to get to Langley and then when it gets
to Langley it hits what's known as an
operating desk operations desks are
managed by the lowest level youngest
officers and then those operating
officers at the desk will be the ones
that read 15 reports but then only
highlight the most important three or
four for their supervisor Who highlights
the most important one or two for his
supervisor or her supervisor Who
highlights the most important one or two
that goes to the an the analysis Wing
that makes the president's Daily Brief
that isn't
absolutely brilliant breakdown of the
problem because it's so mundane it's so
human this is exactly what I know people
to be like uh do you view this as an
intractable problem that we will never
be able to solve this is where I have my
reservations I'm optimistic but reserved
in my optimism for what Donald Trump is
trying to do with the new uh
organization that he created doge is
that what the new organization is yeah
yeah yeah Department of governmental
efficiency yes because the government is
inherently
inefficient that's what it was built to
be it it wasn't accidentally made to be
inefficient it was built to be
inefficient so that it could withstand
the constant transition of change in we
have to Define and maybe I'm debating
you but uh there's two kinds of
inefficiency there's gridlock which I
think the government was literally
designed to do and if people understand
the difference between Congress and
Senate they will understand the Senate
is meant to cool down the emotions of
the Congress which has has everything to
do with how they're elected originally
the Senate wasn't even elected uh so you
have Congress very sensitive to their
constituents Senate not so much meant to
cool it down uh right versus left meant
to gridlock so that only the things that
both sides agree on get through but then
there's the inefficiencies that you just
described which is uh what I will call
it's humans acting in their individual
best interest so I understand that but
it equates to lunacy so it's all
short-term thinking never long longterm
thinking I agree with what you're saying
and I would still say that the
government was designed to be both kinds
of operationally inefficient correct was
it designed to have the short-term
thinking versus long-term thinking no no
it was designed to be slow to make
process slow to make progress so even
though you've got the built-in CH the
built-in um gridlock to use your term
you've got the gridlock element to make
sure that bipartisan or the best IDE
make it to the top survive the gridlock
there's that idea but then those things
have to be
implemented that's where the operational
inefficiency comes in so you also have
to cons consider the fact that the
government has to survive we've talked
about this you and I before the
government of the American people has to
survive even more so than the American
people themselves right if we were to
have something happen that wiped out
2third of the American population if the
US government existed then the idea of
America exists therefore we survive it's
no longer an existential threat to have
something that kills two-third of of the
population that's how the government was
built so the reason you have so many
government jobs the reason you have so
many government offices the reason you
have so many government middle managers
is essentially to build in an
inefficiency that makes it so that
progress happens slowly so that a
president can come in and have a great
idea that everybody agrees to the last
year of their term the world changes two
months later 6 months later a new
president takes over and then they come
up with a new great idea over that all
that volatility of two years the actual
operation of bringing the first good
idea to light never really takes off
that's how the government is built it's
built so that you can't be a a hot shot
second-year officer that immediately
becomes the director of CIA you have to
serve the 15 years before you get a CH a
chance on the seventh floor that's how
it's built completely the opposite of
the way that the corporate world is
built like it's completely the opposite
of the way that the American dream is
built how is it different than the
corporate world in the corporate world
if you're badass sales badass marketing
badass product you can shoot right to
the Top If you've got proven value over
everyone else you can go right to the
head of the line and then you can hold
the head of the line until until you
either melt down or a competitor creeps
up that's Superior to you you see it
especially in the Arts how many actors
musicians uh artists come in they're
unknown they create a work of Brilliance
of Genius of Genius the population Gets
behind them money gets behind them
investors get behind them they shoot to
the top of their game they burn out on
drugs they burn out on something else
they fall they crash to the bottom maybe
they reinvent themselves they scream
back up to the top like we've seen this
dozens of times you see movies made
about artists who have had that exact
kind of Skyrocket and crash right the
government can't afford that that is
dangerous to government operations so
they Tamp all that down by forcing an
inefficiency by forcing a minimum number
of years of service before you're
eligible for promotion nobody can
promote higher than one level above
where they currently are so you can't
was that defined by the founding fathers
though or is this something that's
Arisen over time that's something that's
Arisen over time yeah see I think we
have to tease out the government was
designed to do this when I hear that I
hear founding fathers and the government
was the government with a blind watch
maker has ended up like this and so call
it evolutionary design uh because I
think that the gridlock intentional
founding fathers wanted that they knew
human nature well enough it sounds to me
like what you don't like calling the
Deep state which I like calling the Deep
state only because if you if you accept
this as this is just how humans are
they're going to um they're going to go
through that divorce they're going to
need to fund it so they're suddenly
going to be looking for their Godfather
who wants a loyalist below them who thly
is loyal to the person above them like I
get how that all plays out but if you
don't attack that then I think you have
a problem now here's the only difference
that I see between the government and
Corporate America Corporate America
can't hide because you will go out of
business the government can steal the
money of its constituents really truly
the more I look at this the more I
realize uh that's exactly what's
happening and because the government can
steal money and they don't have to get
you to vote for everything they can just
keep doing this forever and ever and
ever operating at uh these huge losses
from a deficit perspective and there's
all kinds of mechanisms by which uh they
will sooner take us to war instead of
confronting the fact that they just need
to stop spending the money okay so
Corporate America cold hard reality of
being out in the marketplace if you
don't have enough money to make payroll
you go out of business business this is
why the banking industry deranges
because the government basically does
the same thing with the banking industry
and so it's no longer true capitalism uh
because the government isn't true
capitalism this thing that I call the
Deep state to wake people up so they
understand it is Sinister in as much as
yes it's just an echo of human foibles
and weakness I get that I understand how
each individual actor thinking
short-term makes the decisions that they
make but if we were able to point at and
say this is is the kpi that this
government and this is really what doge
is about this is a kpi that this
department is held accountable to and if
you don't hit that then we're going to
start firing people and it's that simple
and I think that once you understand it
was not designed that way with intention
by well-meaning people anyway it was
designed by selfish short-term people
over evolutionary time frames within you
know governmental structures I mean
obviously the last couple hundred years
but we should not want that as far as I
can tell and we should want to bust that
up but it seems like you think there's a
good thing here no no no no so so we
want to smooth out the volatility yeah
yeah yeah it's just to be clear I don't
think there's a big gap between you and
I I in terms of our Ambitions for what
we want the future to look like I would
even go to say in terms of the
imperatives that you and I know the
future must look like I don't think
there's a big gap between us I think
where there is a gap between us is in
the the battlefield truth and the
as an example right the federal
government does not
use work
instructions what does that mean a
corporation uses work instructions
meaning you can hire a new person bring
them into an office and you can
literally give them access to a folder
standards standard operating procedures
standard operating procedures in my
understand in my experience in Corporate
America and in our business at everyday
spy we create Sops which are standard
operating procedures here's the standard
operation of how you bring a product to
Market here's a standard operating
procedure of how you run a marketing
campaign and then inside that sop we
have links to work instructions which
tell you step-by-step checklists how you
do each thing that must be done inside
the
SOP the government does not use work
instructions and by and large the
government does not use
Sops most of the government is written
on the back of what's known as
institutional knowledge and on the
training OJT so a new person comes in
they go through training they go through
onboarding and orientation and then they
go to their office where they're taught
through some senior person or mid midl
mid-rank person how to actually do the
job it's not documented there's there's
rarely a checklist there's rarely a work
instruction there's rarely an sop the
military does the best job of having
actual checklists and those checklists
are you just follow them blindly so they
don't live like a work instruction they
don't get updated with new technology
updates they don't get updated with new
uh systematic software updates they just
they exist until they're Rewritten and
then they exist again that type of
continuity is a very difficult thing for
the government they don't have a best
practice around that because to your
exact point short-term interests people
want to make sure they always have a job
if they make a work instruction an sop
that could lead to an automation that
could cost them their job and inside the
federal government all you have to do we
there's a State there's a saying you
just wait out your leadership change
because every year somebody has to get
promoted every two years somebody new
gets appointed every four years somebody
new gets elected so if you're a
government employee you just can sit
there and wait because the change
happens faster than your own reported
progress in your job so the reason that
you have this backlog of inefficiency
isn't because the the founding fathers
wanted it I don't know that the founding
fathers could could
visualize the technology and the
progress that we've made this
quickly I think that what's happened
instead is human beings have taken
office they've done what they needed to
do to
survive the government evolves slower
than the corporation the corporate
sector technolog is different upgrades
are different software is different
government still uses Windows technology
that's 20 years old because it hasn't
been certified yet as safe for
government systems you see what I'm
saying it's Terri man but it's the
reality of it I'm excited for Doge I'm
excited for an office of government
efficiency but I have seen what's
happened with the office of government
accountability and I've seen what
challenges it's had because the people
who make the laws that dictate the
hiring practices for government the
people that make the laws that dictate
the promotion and uh remuneration
requirements for the government those
laws all have to be changed in order for
something like Doge to actually make
sign
laws have to be changed so the how
you're hired how you're fired there are
laws around how you're hired and fired
that's a fair point I don't know that
there's legislative laws at a federal
level I would want to double check that
but the government policies in order for
something to beate policy in a federal
government it goes through multiple
layers of bureaucracy to be approved as
a policy not like a corporate policy
where somebody just pencil something in
and then that's corporate policy Jesus
Christ we'll get back to the episode
with Andrew bu Deonte in a minute but
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now now let's get back to the show uh
one I want to acknowledge how
brilliantly you're able to explain that
uh two I want to acknowledge that you're
yanking a dark cloud over my heart so
for real so uh as a business owner the
first thing that you learn is you cannot
[ __ ] around you cannot drag employees
that are underperforming because the
reality is that the organ M as a whole
will die yes and you were talking about
we could um two-third of the population
could be annihilated but as long as we
have the government the idea of America
still exists but here's the problem when
you calcify the government in the way
that you're talking about by allowing
all of this short-term thinking uh all
of this just wait out your boss that's
insane this this is how Empires fall I
want everybody to understand if you can
hear my voice please understand the
following every Empire in history has so
abuse the monetary system that they go
away now how do you end up abusing the
monetary system you get something like
this where people are not being held
accountable to the results that they're
supposed to deliver and if you allow an
organization to be created where people
are just waiting out their bosses now it
it really does become a figurehead comes
in they focus entirely on International
uh Endeavors because they can actually
influence International policy but they
can't really do anything at home and so
you get this uh what's happening to
America right now as much as as far as I
can tell is uh we become effectively the
hedgemon in waiting at the end of World
War I some would say we are the hedgemon
at that point uh certainly by the end of
World War Two we are everything and
we've just been trading on that Goodwill
until now and now it's breaking down
because of largely not only but largely
because of this layer of con
in the gears of what could otherwise be
a high functioning government okay so
let me but let me I also I'm glad that
we're part of the Dark Cloud Club yeah
because I also have a dark cloud over my
heart pretty much all the
time I'm sorry to to to don't apologize
I always want to know what's true all I
hear about what's true but here's here's
what's here's what's important to
understand it doesn't have to be that
way to your point because there is a
tool that the president has called like
the presidential authority to make
executive orders
an executive order trumps all other
previous laws at its Penning and since
the days of Obama we've seen nothing but
an increase in the president's
willingness to write more executive
orders than ever before so Donald Trump
has the president already to come in and
make more executive orders than Biden
made which were more than the previous
Trump made which were more than the
previous Obama made right so we have
this this um precedent now for Donald
Trump to come in and just sign executive
orders and with the with the flick of a
pen he can change all the policies he
can change all the status quo he can
absolutely upend everything I think he
will when he does give the executive
orders for a massive cleaning of the
federal government we have to also
expect that it will be executed meaning
we will see a huge Purge of federal
employees there's no work instructions
in Sops to back up new federal employees
so when we see that big Purge we should
expect problems we should expect
upheaval and chaos and people aren't
going to know what they're doing on an
international stage or on a domestic
stage at least in a government stage so
we should expect things to get worse
before they get better what happens when
a company realizes it has problems it
can lay people off it can fire people it
can change policies it gets worse before
it gets better the major problem here is
that a company a for-profit comp or the
major difference here is that for-profit
companies need a profit to survive or
else the company dies federal government
does not need a profit it's got a tax
base it's got guaranteed Revenue all it
needs is employed people to pay taxes so
that it can make Revenue that's why the
government's always so focused on
employment rates if you have more
unemployment you have less tax revenue
if you have people who are employed in
jobs that are low paying you have less
tax revenue unless we start increasing
our tax rates which is how Europe
survives with very high tax rates so
that's the game that the government's
trying to play fewer employees will
reduce the amount of overhead cost
but then if they don't have people who
can do the job they'll have to turn to
contractors those contractors come at a
premium price and now you basically have
the entire administrative government
operating the same way that the
intelligence Services operate which is
they don't have enough staff employees
they augment with contract employees and
that's how your khakis your booze Allens
your deits of the world became billion
dooll companies because they just
started producing government
contractors um it seems to me that we
need the system to be broken because
when you look at what we're
doing yes the government has a
guaranteed tax base however we are
racking up a trillion of debt every 100
days the only way out of that is to
spend less so slash the government
employees slash entitlements whatever
the case is going to be but look at the
10 biggest things we spend money on
you're going to be slashing those it's
not going to be at the margins
or you have to raise GDP and if we could
get people all of us anybody hey if
you're here listening right now uh think
of the GDP as the revenue generated by
the government it's not because the
government ultimately does not generate
Revenue but they can either impede or
unimpeded the GDP of everybody else
that's within its borders so the whole
thesis that Trump is operating under is
that I'm going to be able to unlock
growth GDP is going to go up so I don't
have to tax people more and commit
suicide like Europe is doing hi Europe I
hope you're okay uh I don't know what
the [ __ ] they're doing but if you look
at the number of companies that are
worth more than a billion dollars that
were started in the last 50 years or
something like that the US has a ton and
Europe has like six it's crazy uh and
anybody that thinks corporations are
evil will just remind you the government
doesn't make money they take money from
the people that make money and it's the
corporations that make money so if you
want your people to be thriving you've
got to have GDP when the government
makes up all the GDP don't get me
started printing money debt blah blah
blah okay so there's a there is a third
tool please say more to get out of
debt you're either about to change my
life or we're we're about to be in fist
of cuffs what is it fist of cuffs might
be the way it goes you can just
default so think about what happens if
the
when you look at the national debt that
the United States
carries 12 to 15% of that debt is owed
to one country
China and then you have a half a billion
more that's owed to Russia and then you
have obus skated numbers that go to the
ultra wealthy that are Chinese are
Russian are Iranian are Turkish or
Saudi you could arguably
simply not pay those debts right It Off
The Top Line right right off the amount
Ed and simultaneously strike an economic
blow to your largest
adversaries I'm not altogether
unconvinced that that is exactly the
strategy that we plan that when we
decide to go to war with East versus
West when we decide to get involved
we're going to do to China what we did
to Russia and we provve that we're
willing to do when we sanctioned the
actual cash reserves of Russia that was
being held in US denominated Dollars and
European euros we just took their
money extra judicial not at all allowed
something that we had NATO sign off on
because we control NATO it was totally
illegal in every definition of the word
there's no reason we can't just do that
with our national debt and that's going
to reduce us like 25% overnight and
defund our enemies from being able to
work against us will it destroy the
dollar arguably if you're doing it only
to your
adversaries Maybe not maybe that makes
your allies even more Allied because now
you have a massive head start against
your enemies but that is a third way
that companies get out of
debt F cuffs or no I uh I was like
there's no thing he's going to be able
to pull out you you are correct in terms
of being able to change the ratio of
debt to
GDP uh that is the nuclear option
because that uh there's no guarantees in
life I want to be very clear I cannot
see the future and it's possible that
that works out just fine it's also
possible that 10 years later we are
dropping bombs on each other at a scale
never before seen in human history
people do not like it when you [ __ ] with
their money I agree and wowza uh fully
concede the point that that is certainly
a thing that we can do uh hey if we want
to get crazy we could also devalue the
dollar against gold and uh uh that won't
make the world happy either but that
would also have a very big impact on the
debt uh okay the reason that is so dark
and I can hear wolves howling in the
background is really twofold one because
it's all too possible that that's on the
menu of options uh and two because that
that is where Ray doio has been saying
this is all going to go that we end up
in a hot War and the reason we end up in
a hot war is when we lock up China's
money and they're in the middle of a um
crisis because they are in the middle of
a crisis right now nothing that the US
hasn't seen and I'm sure they'll be able
to inflate their way out of it and all
that good stuff but if the US freezes
some ungodly amount of my money and I'm
China I go oh really you want to play
cool taiwan's mine and now I'm going to
see how badly you want these chips and
your modern way of life uh because you
either give me my money back or I'm
going in and I'm taking over and I'm
cutting off your supply they are not
going to roll over they are not just
going to take it and this is truly last
time we talked you said that World War
III has already started uh that's how
World War III goes from a what do you
mean we're in World War I to uh downtown
LA just got vaporized yeah so I think at
the end of the day the truth holds today
as it's hold as it's held for our
multiple conversations the future is not
happy we are years away from happy
future we are potentially months away
from positive indicators that happiness
is coming but we're not anywhere close
to happy yet and we won't be close to
happy for a long time China won't roll
over great point right also when it
comes to actual measurable objective
facts about China right now they have
the largest military industrial complex
in the world when it comes to uh counts
counts of troops numbers of active
warships numbers of aircraft ammunitions
at the ready they surpass Us by ability
to make more by almost seven times yeah
they are us when Pearl Harbor happened
so they're not going to roll over
because they look at us and they see
that we have our senior advisers to the
military advising to stop giving weapons
to Ukraine and Israel because we are at
such a deficit we don't even know how we
would wage a sustained conflict if we
were the active participant so if China
were to invade Taiwan militarily which
there's no indications that that is
their intention necessarily but that is
one of their options if they invade
militarily the US is really only going
to be able to augment Taiwanese defense
capabilities we won't be able to wage a
war on our own just based on our
manufacturing capability and the amount
of ammunition weapons troops tanks ships
that we have already built Chinese ship
building is out producing us Chinese
military training is out producing us
China is outs spending us and what did
we learn from Russia in Ukraine the
whole world sanctioned Russia how did
they keep their economy alive wartime
economy why are well France and Germany
are [ __ ] right now on their own but
before they [ __ ] themselves with
meltdowns in their Parliament they were
the ones warning that if we don't find a
way to bring a ceasefire in Ukraine
Russia is going to continue to build its
economy on the back of a war that's
exactly how the United States has
survived some of our worst times we had
a wartime economy that's what made
Afghanistan Iraq worth it that's what
made World War II worth it that's what
made the Korean War worth it that's what
made Vietnam worth it because economies
go up domestic production goes up
employment goes up tax bases go up when
there's a
war China is
preparing mentally and fiscally for some
kind of conflict doesn't have to be with
us it can be with all of its neighbors
in the South China Sea for all it cares
but right now we literally can't wage
war what are we going to do in the
future they're not going to roll over
and to your exact point they know we're
not going to roll over so you've got
these two big [ __ ] dogs staring at
each other growling but not barking yet
and everybody else is walking around
being like oh they're fine because
there's a mesh fence between them I
don't know what the future holds but
it's not it's not going to be a hard
barbed wire fence that makes these two
dogs peaceful
uh By the time this airs it will have
already happened but what do you think
about Trump inviting xiin ping to his
inauguration I like the idea because
again you have to you have to
acknowledge a big
dog there's a I have a puppy now we have
a four-month-old poodle standard poodle
puppy it's got the same hair as me right
only white instead of black but one
thing that I've learned in the puppy
training classes is that there's nothing
more dangerous than a dog on a leash CU
when a dog's on a leash instinctively it
feels like it's confined trapped so then
when a dog on a leash meets another dog
on a leash they start pulling on the
leash coming at each other if they
didn't have the leashes their instincts
wouldn't force them into conflict they'd
be trying to smell each other's ass
right a completely different movement
but instead from the outside Observer
you watch these two dogs growling
salivating pulling at each other as if
they would kill each other it's the
leash that's the problem
not the dogs so essentially what we have
in the United States with China is you
have these two big dogs that want to
acknowledge each other they want to
sniff each other's ass I think Trump
knows that let let them Sniff and then
from there they can start making moves
that are not going to be misinterpreted
remember how we avoided the Cuban
Missile Fiasco right the crisis avoided
nuclear war because there was a bunch of
ass sniffing going on right people were
trying to they had Intel on us we had
Intel on them back and forth they're we
could avoid miscommunications to the
point where they even had a phone that
they could call each other to make sure
that there was no miscommunication the
world is full of miscommunication right
now things are unexpected things are are
are happening that analysts didn't
anticipate assessments are wrong about
what is happening nobody can guess what
the next step is who would have guessed
that Assad would have fallen in 14 days
backed by turkey and that now those
turkish-backed groups would be fighting
American backed Kurds inside
Syria who would have guessed that was
going to happen two and a half weeks ago
like there's only four people in the
entire United States that watch [ __ ]
Syria right so I think having so Trump's
plan to invite shei to in include him in
more and more things the United States
is wise but he also has to account for
the fact that anything he shows or tells
she is going to make its way to Putin
and make its way to Kim Jong-un and make
its way to all of the enemies of the
United States because that's how she
maintains his leverage over the growing
axis of resistance because they're a big
dog and they're invited to sniff the
other dog's ass okay so uh if we've got
Trump coming in and he's got a Cadre of
people that are for the reasons that you
laid out they're they're not going to
surface the truth um I'm going to pose a
way around that tell me if you think
this is crazy so the way that you laid
out the problem seems fundamentally true
because it is in keeping with what I
know about the human animal given the
state of AI what I would do is say I
want my analyst I want the human touch I
want to see what's going on there but I
also want the people the field agents to
be able to feed their briefs into an AI
That's going to summarize and hand it to
me I will verify the um the bias of the
AI by asking it to take both sides of
arguments that I know the answer to and
see if it's really giving me something
that's just on bias or uh if it's able
to take both sides so that now I can
compare and contrast this is what the AI
says is going based on field data being
reported to it and then this is what the
people are telling me and I would
compare and contrast that plus whether I
have to do it as an executive order
which I'm actually not a big fan of but
if I have to be able to do an executive
order to be able to hire and fire People
based on performance then executive
order I would highly recommend um those
two things I can hold government
employees accountable to results and I
have an AI to gut check what I'm getting
from the field do you see another way to
do that better uh I don't think I see a
way to do that better but there are some
elements there that I want to make sure
in in keeping true to our Dark Cloud
right uh performance metrics the day
that the day they're implemented would
be the first day that you'd be able to
actually measure performance for a
government employee they don't have
metrics right now now it's kind of
standard practice across the government
they don't have performance Elon David
Sachs Trump like they're going to be
able to come up with metrics I agree I
agree they can I'm just saying that when
they come up with them that would be day
one so from now until the day those are
rolled out and issued is all before day
one right and then to your point about
performance the performance process for
government employees even military
employees the performance process is
flawed everybody is overstated in their
performance report so basically your bad
employee is an employee who meets
expectations formally on paper and your
standout employees are the ones that
exceed expectations and have all sorts
of accolades and then the people who
you're trying to flag for promotion are
the people who exceed expectations have
all kinds of accolades and have certain
keywords inside their resume that also
highlight to the to the board that's
reviewing them for promotion this is
somebody that their boss really wants to
promote so it's already hyperinflated
you don't have any anybody that you can
easily cut because if you actually look
at everybody's performance review
they're all 10 out of 10 yeah that's not
how you cut though man so if you and
it'll be interesting because I know
you're growing like a weed at everyday
spy I'm going to look into your future
and I'm going to tell you it's going to
go like this uh there are going to be
people that in your heart of hearts you
realize you're caring because you like
them as people but they don't deliver
results and that you're making excuses
for them and if they blindly submitted a
project that you'd be like uh whoever
project this is kill it and then only to
find out that it's somebody that you
really like and so ultimately as you
scale you will hit a point where you
can't oversee everything and suddenly
you'll be pulled away from your wife and
kids because you uh have to go deal with
the fire and as you're looking at it
you're like I should never been pulled
into this you will say who's responsible
for this and a name will come up and you
be like ah cool uh that person is not
useful to this organization you will
very rapidly begin to recognize those
patterns um I I've just I've lived it
I'm I'm a few years in your future uh
you're not even that I mean I've I've
already started struggling with what
you're saying yeah you're totally make
apparent over time right now Trump has
around him the greatest living
entrepreneurs it it is insane what he's
been able to bring around him now I get
it there are complications to the
government that's going to make this
very difficult and it is not going to be
some like um polyana outcome however
Elon walked into Twitter and and was
just like prto principal 8020 I'm going
to get rid of 80% of the people and hope
that I got the 20% right obviously
you'll look at metrics but it won't be
the employee reviews it's going to be
things like it'll be different for every
Department I want to be very clear but
he went and was just like how many lines
of code did you submit okay so first
thing is there's a line in elon's mind
knowing from an engineering standpoint
how many lines roughly of code you
should be submitting I'm just going to
Lop off anybody that doesn't submit that
amount of code and will I have lost some
like really high level guys that just
don't do do a lot yeah I don't give a
[ __ ] like they're just you have to have
a line then I can bring people back if I
have to and I remember openly on X he
was like Hey Timmy or whatever we fired
you we actually want to bring you back
uh if you would reach out um so that's
his thing seeing what melee is doing in
Argentina yep same thing weed whack and
then if you overdo it you can bring some
people back in but he's managed to I
think build a surplus like it's actually
working um so I have a lot of high hopes
for that um again not existing in a poly
Ana land but if you were to make a
prognostication about where all of this
goes do you think it is just it's too
gridlocked they're never going to be
able to make progress these guys are
just going to heads down wait them out I
think so you I still owe you a second
answer and this answer right so I think
that the existing government
establishment is going to try first
heads down wait out our leadership let's
also be honest Donald Trump has a
history of loving people this year and
hating them next year loving them this
morning and hating them this afternoon
yes so that's my big fear but that that
feeds into the existing government
culture of we just wait out the boss
this guy's going to self-destruct just
wait out the boss and even if they don't
have to wait out Donald Trump they can
wait out Elon Musk they can wait out
whoever musk hired they can wait out
whoever's implementing the the policy of
the person that Elon hired like they can
wait and wait and wait and wait and
that's all they know right even your
high performing government person even
the person who's listening now who knows
that they work their ass off in the
federal government they've never been
rewarded for it because that's the way
it works even that person knows on some
level I could just color and weight like
I can just do that it's so dark it's but
it's what it's it's survival
mechanism so that will be the first
instinct I think that instinct can be
buffered out right exact point do I see
a future with AI absolutely I see a
future with AI there are risks inherent
with that future AI is still code C can
be hacked in by an adversary AI is still
based on the inputs and who knows what
the inputs are going to be there's all
sorts of challenges there but you can't
turn away from the future just because
there's challenges of course there's
challenges you have to go in knowing
those challenges I love that you brought
out Argentina it's a it's a perfect
timely relevant
example this chaotic leader came in with
plans to completely upend everything
that was established and for a year he
struggled to keep people believing and
then after a year that's still not good
but it's better by a lot by a lot and a
lot better than what it was isn't saying
much to most democracies but it's a [ __ ]
ton better simultaneous and in parallel
to that you had France dissolve
parliament and then revote to bring in
new leaders ship and then you had the
resignation of the Prime Minister that
resulted in a no confidence vote of the
parliament so France is back to no
leadership again Germany just had a no
confidence vote in its Parliament and
its current uh whatever the is it a
prime minister in Germany whatever the
hell Chancellor Olaf the chancellor
thank you like two days ago he was voted
in no confidence vote in Parliament so
they're melted down the top two largest
economies in Europe the two Bast of
democracy in Europe the two largest
Partners to the United States and NATO
arguably with UK they don't have a
government right now they're melted down
they have to go back to the drawing
board and reelect because the people
couldn't pick their right leadership
more than one time in a row so you got
Malay saying burn it all down build it
back up you've got the old world trying
to keep the old way and burning down on
their own and now we've got this
question of Donald Trump and people
wondering is he just going to destroy
America I think he's got a plan to burn
it down build it back up because he's
done that and like you said he's he's
creating this Ensemble of entrepreneurs
who have all in their careers had to
burn it down and build it back up the
building it back up is not a guarantee
takes a whole lot more work than burning
it down but sometimes you got to K you
got to burn the cornfield to reset the
soil to grow something better do you
think he's going to destabilize America
destabilize is a tough word right I
would argue that I would argue that he's
he
has stabilized the United States on
fewer feet if you consider a table has
four legs does it need four legs there
are plenty of tables that have three
legs and there are other tables that
have six legs so did he destabilize the
United States or you just reduce the
number of legs I get the impression that
the people who support him and see what
he sees are more stable than ever the
people who don't understand him and
don't see what he sees are more
unraveled than ever do you think he's
going to destabilize the international
order and I'll give you an
example uh dear um
Hamas if you don't hand back the
hostages by the time I take office all
hell will break loose
now he might be able to find a way to
dance around saying that he might be
able to find a way to dance around
saying I'll end the Russ Ukrainian
conflict before my first day in office
uh he's making a lot of bold statements
and if he keeps making those claims and
doesn't back them up he's going to have
a domestic problem massively and so I
have a feeling he either has to deliver
results or
deliver big action in the form of uh
delivered
aggression and if he gets results
because everybody's scared great it'll
be a big win if they're all like n I'm
going to wait this fool out he's going
to implode and then he's forced to do
something that is
um direct American Military
intervention uh that destabilizes
things there's two answers I think to
your question so I think he will
stabilize the world around American
hegemony again we strong man strong man
strong leader unfortunately that's
what's working in the world right now
strong man strong leader what's Israel
right Netanyahu people don't like what
he's doing strong man strong leader xiin
ping Putin even Al Al Jalan galani right
now strong man strong leader [ __ ]
Eran 20 years in power in Turkey a
secular democracy like strong men strong
power centers are in in fashion and
effective right now that's why Biden
didn't have very much success not strong
man strong leader strong orator strong
anything right it's why Camala Harris
didn't stand a chance from the moment
that she was nominated she's not strong
she can't even retain she couldn't even
retain her own
staff how is she going to retain the the
momentum of a people behind her so my
point with all that is to say Donald
Trump fits the mold of what stabilizes
right now but that stabilizing doesn't
mean Conflict Free it usually means more
conflict to stabilize your corner of the
sandbox if you
will but the second side to that is that
geopolitics is not like domestic
politics you can make big promises in
geopolitics that never come true and the
world forgets and forgives domestic
politics when you make big promises
people expect you to deliver because
domestic [ __ ] affects us every single
day your paycheck the price of bread
whether your children are safe in school
that stuff bothers you every day what
the [ __ ] happens in Ukraine eh what the
[ __ ] happens with national Deb eh what
the [ __ ] happens with Hezbollah Hamas or
what's
HTS so he can make all the promises he
wants abroad and the the United States
won't
really we won't Flex on him for that
we've seen that do you remember
zelinsky's first promises with the
Ukraine war that Ukraine will not quit
until the original borders before the
annexation Crimea were returned to their
custody he's thinking about quitting now
what did Netanyahu say about Hamas we
will not quit until Hamas is
eradicated Hamas isn't eradicated he's
thinking about quitting right he's
already looking at Yemen what's he going
to make these guys make huge promises
and they make promises that are
existential the world forgets about it
right they'll move on so Trump knows
geopolitics is a lot like marketing you
can say you have the best cup of coffee
in the world but when your coffee is
just
it's okay because you still made the
revenue off the coffee and people will
like your cake or your pie or your eggs
instead and they'll keep coming back
that's how geopolitics works that's so
interesting uh because it is exactly
like marketing if you want to Rally
people you've got to give them something
big and exciting when I was 60 pounds
heavier than I am now I didn't say to
myself I'm going to lose 20 pounds I
said I'm going to have six-pack abs and
focusing on six-pack abs that was
motivating that was motivating enough to
endure two years of effectively rabbit
starvation I can't imagine you with that
much extra weight dude yeah oh I've got
the photos uh and it was it was an
example of the study that they've done
that shows that that's just true people
need the big things so uh if I'm Trump
if I'm Netanyahu it's all going to be
the biggest the best number one all the
way total eradication because that is a
big enough goal to get everybody excited
now once you get into the reality of
there's a lot of people dying then now
the mood shifts you got what you needed
out of the Big B bombastic promise and
now we get into something that's more
realistic but um there is something
about maybe you're right maybe it'll
just be everybody forgets all the things
that Trump said internationally and as
long as he closes the border and
people's wages go up uh they'll be like
yeah I don't care I'm good yeah I mean
to a certain extent I think Trump is
successful because he understands
marketing so well yeah the man has made
a fortune putting his name on buildings
you've got to know a thing or two about
how to make people find Value in you
when all you have to do is put your name
on their building and they're willing to
license it from you right that's power
that's truly understanding the American
Zeitgeist I think Trump understands that
and I think that's why people like to
call him a populist leader we've only
had populist leaders for like the last
15 years we are electing the most
popular person
Barack Obama's hope campaign was nothing
but [ __ ] populism right that's all
Biden wouldn't have been elected if not
for Trump I will never or I'm sorry if
not for Obama saying I'll never forget
this he's a
lifetime American servant and he's going
to leave a proud Legacy for the American
people upon this presidency and instead
look at the actual Legacy this guy has
left yes he's been a lifetime public
servant that's not how the history is
going to remember this guy how's he
going to be remembered he's going to be
remembered as the guy who destroyed our
economy with covid he's going to be
remembered as the guy who pardoned his
son he's going to be remembered as the
guy who tripped and and fell on stage
and people doubted his mental
capabilities he's going to be remembered
as the person who nominated a vice
president that America had denied
multiple times before to run for office
that's how he's going to be remembered
and I feel bad for Joe Biden because
that sucks the dude's had enough
hardship in his life he doesn't also
need to have his legacy question forever
but it will it will because at the end
of the day Biden and Obama and the
Democratic people continue to put Faith
in the National Democratic Convention
rather than what they know the people of
America want and that's the big
difference that's happened since the
introduction of Donald Trump into the
political cycle he understands what the
people want he doesn't care what the
convention wants right if you there's
huge amounts of Republicans that don't
support remember when he first ran he
first ran kind of on an independent
platform until it could be absorbed into
the Republican platform so that he had
the unwritten written rule that of
having either Democratic or republican
support and then even when he's in
office Republicans work against like
guy's constantly being ousted and and
threatened by his own party so he
definitely doesn't have the party
support inside the liberal part of the
world they don't do anything without the
full Party Support they're separate they
they don't speak the voice of the
American people they speak the voice of
the party and then the people who
believe in the party's definition of
democracy believe that the party is
their best interest like that's whether
the party creates the popular idea or
whether the individual creates the
popular idea in both cases it's populism
you're just promoting what's popular and
that's what people are voting on it's
interesting the Democratic party does
not feel like a populist party to me uh
when they shot down Bernie Sanders
Bernie was the populist wing of the
left-wing ideology and they took the
exact opposite approach this whole idea
of the elites man I am absolutely
fascinated by the elite so I was not I
wasn't aware of how the sort of quote
unquote World worked for a very long
time because I was so successful at
building businesses and it's only
recently when my business became
understanding how the world works that
I'm like okay wait a second uh piecing
this all together uh it is it is
shocking to me the anti-democratic way
that the Democratic ironically party uh
puts their candidates together leverages
this concept of the elite to cram it
down people's throats do you know a guy
named Martin gur no also ex CIA guy had
him on the show recently his episode
wasn't that popular it's a great [ __ ]
episode but he is
um he's somebody that looks at the
Global Communication
and he said uh he basically predicted
Trump because he was watching what was
going on with social media and he
realized oh once everybody is the media
the whole idea of the elites Falls away
you're no longer able to control the
narrative and that's not a good thing
and that once narrative is just coming
from everywhere people are not going to
be able to make sense to the world so we
need a new Elite to step forward to be
worthy of being followed and it's like I
kind of track what he's saying but the
whole idea of it's what I call the dumb
voter problem's see if I can continue to
trigger people by refusing to change my
language around this uh the reason I
call it that is I I want to know so I'm
perfectly willing to accept that I'm
somebody else's dumb voter I get that I
just want to know when you think of a
group as being a dumb voter how do you
think they should be treated so the way
I believe you should handle dumb voters
again I understand I am someone else's
dumb voter but the way I believe the
people I look at and say this person is
just objectively dumb like they can't
process raw data we all think that of
someone somewhere I'm not passing a
moral judgment I'm not saying dumb
people are bad people I'm saying there's
some people that cannot navigate the
world well despite that I believe that
because no one should be trusted to draw
that line least of all me that we should
be saying you hey they're a citizen they
are a full citizen with rights and
you're just going to have to deal with
whatever comes from everyone getting to
vote
the elites take a totally different
stance and their thing is some people
are too dumb to think through this and
I'm not willing to live in a world where
the quality of the decision-making is
degraded by dumb people that scares the
life out of me and so I if we could live
in a world where there was a group of
people that I could trust to be
perfectly moral and blah blah blah sure
but I can't and so I would much rather
have where every idea that doesn't
violate current American uh uh Free
Speech laws are allowed to be heard and
don't try to silence people don't try to
C cram a candidate down our throat which
is what the Democratic party did I would
rather be if we're in a populist mood
then I would rather have a populist
leader uh now does that mean that that
can't go dark no of course it can but I
don't believe in preemptive strikes I am
not a precog I cannot read Donald
Trump's mind uh so I don't want to see
people try to break the Democratic
process anyway that was a lot of words
around I don't think the Democrats have
been populist for quite a while it's
funny because I would I would say that
you are correct when it comes to if you
look at populism being something that is
actually effective right uh for all
people where I would differ from you is
if you say what's important to Democrats
what's important to the the Democratic
National Convention the DNC what's
important to them what's popular to them
that's what they try to promote if you
remember Bernie Sanders was shot down
that's popular to a really small group
of people that think they know better
and think that they're bigger than they
really are yes if you think about what
happened when Hillary Clinton was
running against Donald Trump Hillary
Clinton was who they supported when they
shot down Bernie Sanders and all that
came out in open source right that the
even the DNC had emails talking about
how they were going to silence the
Sanders campaign and drive that support
to the Clinton campaign why because they
wanted a Clinton they wanted a female
they wanted all of that Democratic value
Democratic party value stuff because
that was trendy and relevant and
interesting to their party at the time
well what was Kamala Harris the same
thing she was a mixed race female with
no with no kids of her own that's trendy
and popular in their group in their
ingroup bias that's what they thought
all of America wanted what that was
exactly their flaw that wasn't what all
of America wanted take umbrage with that
absolutely man I don't think it's what
they thought all of America wanted I
think it's what they thought all of
America needed they are dumb voters and
we are going to decide for them because
I do not want my uh my ability to make
good decisions to be watered down by
dumb people this is why I I I have one
question for anybody who wants to be a
quote unquote Elite what do you do with
dumb voters yeah and the way that they
answer that question if they want to
relegate them in any way if they want to
silence them or ice them out I'm like
dude you this is how you become a
totalitarian state everybody thinks
they're doing the right thing everybody
thinks they know what's better and I'm
just like godamn will you people please
stop trusting yourselves like this is my
message to entrepreneurs this is my
message to parents this is my message to
uh certainly people in the government
stop trusting yourself so much please
understand here's how I want people to
think about me because I'm going to say
what I believe to be true as
aggressively as I believe it so if I
really believe something I'm going to
say it with all the aggression in the
world I'm not not going to hedge my bets
because I am trusting them to go I'm
going to take the read of a whole bunch
of people who are giving me their very
narrow wildly distorted lens on what
they see and the analogy that I use is
the truth capital T capital T Capital
the capital truth is when you are trying
to figure out what it is because it is
effectively unknown we don't even know
the laws of physics so when I reach
inside of this black bag that has an
object inside of it that is the truth
and I'm wearing [ __ ] mittens which is
what life is like and I'm trying to feel
what this thing is I have a guess and
then I want a whole bunch of other
people to go in and be like no I don't
think it's that I think it's this and
and another and another and another
because I do not believe that I am some
sort of magical person who can reach
inside with the mittens in the black bag
and figure out exactly what it is so
that I want everyone to listen to me not
even in my own company nobody can see
that Jesus maybe Elon Musk but if I had
guess even he is simply surrounding
himself with a whole lot of in fact
here's what I think is really going on
with Elon
Musk as a leader you will only be able
to attract people who look at you and go
oo I'll round it to Smart it's not
always that but people are not going to
go to work for somebody that they think
is dumber than they are so you're only
going to be able to staff up with people
that look at you and go oh you're a
little bit smarter than me and because
Elon is so freakishly smart and
effective he can get a whole group of
freakish smart people to work for him so
even he is going I need other really
really smart people to poke at this
problem and to say what the issue is
and I think when I look out at political
issues the problem is people trust
themselves too damn much that is a
cognitive bias that's known as the
Dunning Dunning Krueger effect when you
overstate your capabilities internally
and you're in fact capable than you
really are that is an example of the
cognitive bias called dening Krueger and
you're exactly right we see everybody's
prone to it but with the entrenchments
of the DNC the Liberals have become very
very vulnerable to their own confidence
just like you were saying they thought
the world needed a mixed race female
president they didn't even think is the
world ready for this they didn't think
is this candidate the right candidate
we've had the conversation you know
countless times personally and and
publicly I a huge fan of women in a
million ways I think women are brilliant
I think women are smart I think women
are physically
gifted can be can be just like men can
be right so I'm all for the equal like
understanding and believing the equality
between men and women but that makes it
all the more important to me that when
we have a female president she isn't
given any like freebies on the way to
the top gangster she's got to be Thug
man she's got to be just as Thug as any
American person who gets to the top of
the food chain when they ride on Mom and
Dad's coat heels or the last name or
some sort of party bias like will I
accept it sure I'll accept it but it
doesn't get me pumped it doesn't get me
excited right I want our first female
pres to be somebody that gets the whole
world excited right somebody who pulled
themselves up from from
bootstraps but all of that to say that
your point your point over and over
again today and I love it is human
behavior because human behavior is
predictable if you understand human
behavior better than the human is
sitting across the table from you you
will predict what they do before they do
it and they for damn sure aren't going
to be able to predict what you're doing
because they're not as prepared as you
are for human prediction when it comes
to human behavior CIA has a rule of
thumb that they teach us very early in
our experience at the farm be the
dumbest person in the room and you've
brought up dumb voters and you've
brought up dumb people and I think this
is so valuable because it it fits
exactly why we're taught that idea of
being the dumbest person in the room
when you are
smart but you act dumb I don't mean you
walk in and say stupid things trying to
make people believe you're dumb when
you're just
quiet people will assume through human
behavior that you either have nothing to
say or have nothing intelligent to say
they will not assume that you have
something intelligent that you're just
holding on to so they will then start to
assume that you are the dumbest person
in the room you must be dumb because
you're not participating you must be
dumb because you're not saying anything
enlightening you must be dumb because
you're just sitting there with a Blank
Stare on your face that's how you
immediately turn yourself into a
non-threat in any situation just through
silence and then by pretending to be the
dumbest person in the room you actually
become even more informed because guess
what everybody else is doing talking
they're all talking trying to prove that
they're the smartest person in the room
so it turns you into this core collector
collecting information biases points of
view perspectives arguments
counterarguments from everybody and no
one's asking you anything nobody's
assessing you to be threatening in any
way shape or form and the Beautiful part
is you can walk into that room quiet you
can walk out of that room quiet and
you've sucked up the sum total of
information that was in that room and
you're carrying it to the next room
where they assume that you're dumb again
and you can keep looking dumb sucking up
information that you can use for your
own distinct competitive Advantage
anytime any place on your choosing
you're no longer subject to when
opportunity strikes you can literally
create the opportunity on your own so
there's a strategic cognitive
demonstrable advantage to appearing
dumb and what you're saying is that
there are people out there particularly
in the Democratic party who are looking
at people who are quiet and just
assuming they're dumb when in fact those
people could very well be exercising one
of the most powerful advantages in the
elicitation and intelligence world it's
a really powerful idea it's not what I'm
saying so when I but but really and I
don't want to diminish what you just
said this is such a powerful tool to
have in your quiver um what I am saying
is there the world has dumb people that
is fair you objectively fair objectively
you reveal yourself when you explain to
me how you want to treat dumb people and
uh everybody's line of what is is
different right so the reality is um if
someone can solve better problems than
you they can think through things faster
etc etc the whole world's going to say
yeah they're smarter and cool so if
they're the line of what is smart and
what is not smart then I fall into the
category of dumb uh what I'm getting at
and I've seen this in in podcasting you
find yourself colliding with people that
you're like whoa that's what you that's
your take on this issue uh and when I
tried to map okay this is somebody
really smart this is somebody that I
really respect but the way that they
want to handle the
world it it it happened with free speech
when I saw during covid that people
wanted other people to shut up because
they were spreading misinformation I was
like holy [ __ ] you actually think you
have yeah uh that you understand things
so well that you're prepared to lie to
other people because you think the
outcome of your lie is better than them
groping for the truth I was like what
the [ __ ] like that that is to me that is
such a psychotically self-destructive
way to approach the world you you blind
yourself intentionally because you're
saying I don't want to hear from these
people I don't want other people to
debate ideas Jordan Peterson has this
right the whole idea of thinking of
running thought experiments is so that
you can think through a highly risky
idea without having to live it because
in living that highly risky idea you may
literally die and so running a
simulation in your mind of what happens
when you do XYZ thing that act that
thinking is what that is uh now you can
iterate very very quickly and I'm saying
okay well thinking is super powerful but
you know it's even more powerful let
everybody else treat them like a bunch
of AI that they all have an a simulation
inside of their minds that's very unique
to mine they're going to run all these
simulations and they're going to tell me
what they think is the right idea and
the vast majority of them will sound
stupid the vast majority of them will be
terrible ideas as the vast majority of
my ideas will be terrible but I want
everybody to put their ideas out and I'm
willing to accept
that in battling those ideas there's
going to be a ton of confusion but
ultimately the ideas that survive will
allow us to go forward a lot faster than
saying okay I want to siphon off 1% of
the population and say you guys think
through everything for us so there was
this uh there's this pastor that I had
when I lived in Florida very shortly
after I left CIA 2014 and he was a young
Pastor seating a new
church and he used to have this saying
and his saying was I have a b let me
share let me tell you my bad idea like
that's what he would that was his saying
let me tell you my bad idea he was young
enough to understand that he was never
going to make a living for himself and
his two kids and his wife off of a
pastor's salary that he had to find a
way to have some sort of entrepreneurial
Endeavor as well writing books public
speaking something right so we used to
always have these back and forth
dialogues about entrepreneurialism and
business ideas and book ideas and study
ideas right so he would constantly say
let me tell you my bad ideas
because he would he would he believed
that no good idea can happen unless it
starts from a bad idea first and you
have to be able to say your bad idea to
a group of people who can help you hone
your bad idea cut out the bad parts and
find that core good idea that's inside
that you can't see for yourself because
it's like a seed wrapped around like a
nut and and all the meat of the nut is
bad idea but the seed is a good idea and
it wasn't until talking to him at 34
years old I was 34 years old outside of
CIA that I finally started to understand
what we had always heard in government
which was there are no bad ideas that
that became cliche right there are no
stupid questions there are no bad ideas
I never understood what that meant until
sitting in this small table with this
pastor who was like let me tell you my
bad idea and just calling it bad from
the start and I've picked that up on my
own I do that with my company now I do
that with my clients now let me tell you
my bad idea so that you already know
that I'm not in love with this idea I'm
just throwing it out there to see if we
can all work together to find the seed
the kernel inside it that's
good totally agree uh if I could get
people to adopt that their lives would
be a lot better going back to human
nature um help me understand Syria
what's what's going on what knowing that
we know humans what can we um predict is
going to happen there Syria Syria is not
an easy
topic for anybody so the first thing to
understand about Syria is that it is one
of the most
complex Civil War conflicts that we've
seen in modern history um it actually
goes back to before Arab Spring in 2011
so Bashar al-assad is the son of of the
Assad who created the Syrian despot as
we know it the Syrian rule of the Assad
family and bashar's father I forget his
name now it starts with an H bashar's
father participated in three different
coups before he became the leader of
Syria so he supported a coup when he was
commander of the Air Force that brought
in a new essentially dictator and then
he participated in a second coup that
brought in a different dictator when he
was the head of the Armed Forces and
then he orchestrated a coup himself
before he became the leader of Syria so
he basically helped aoup when he was 30
helped aoup when he was 40 helped CP
when he was 50 in the 50y old then what
he knew he was an expert in how to
create a coup which is how he kept coups
from happening for the rest of his rule
Bashar his son was actually his third
choice to become the new ruler of Syria
first he wanted a a cousin to become the
new ruler because he was a strong enough
man the cousin died then he wanted his
eldest son to become the ruler of Syria
and then the then that son died so then
all that was left was his youngest son
Bashar who was actually studying
medicine in the United Kingdom at the
time and he was like hey guess what
buddy you're going to be the new
strongman ruler of Syria so Bashar al-
Assad was doomed from the start like the
dude was living the life of the youngest
son of a of a dictator that's the last
thing he thought he was G to ever have
to do was be a dictator so he comes into
Power circuit 2001 2002 for 10 years he
cozies up with netan not Netanyahu um
erigon the leader of turkey and helps
create a thriving secular government in
Syria thriving compared to his father
with tons of trade with turkey and a lot
of that trade was something that erigon
wanted because erigon was also trying to
prove the power of His rule so increased
exports to Syria increased imports from
Syria Syrian people were happy Turkish
people are happy then comes Arab Spring
Syrian people were not happy Syrian
people had some relative stability
economically in an a minority controlled
government so let's be very clear Syria
has not been happy for like 70 years if
if even before that Ottoman Empire is
probably the last time Syria was happy
but when Arab Spring broke out Arab
Spring was really about minority groups
wanting strong men out of
government erigon went to Assad and said
you should support the Sunni minority
that wants change in Syria because the
minority sorry the Sunni majority that
wants the Ala minority to be out of
power in Syria that's what erigon wanted
from Assad Assad chose a different path
he was like no we're going to make sure
the alawi stay in power we're going to
get strong man tactics we're going to
force Arab Spring out of Syria what
people forget about the Arab Spring is
that a handful of countries were able to
squash the Arab rebellions and do it
very successfully right Bahrain was able
to squash the rebellions very very
quickly and go on to economic
success Libya Egypt Yemen they they
failed to squash it uh Syria failed to
squash it and that turned into years of
conflict which has turned into more than
a decade now of Destruction for almost
all of those countries the new
governments haven't taken over they
haven't been strong democracy hasn't
quite taken hold it's been a mess so
Syria is coming off of
essentially 15 13 years of Civil War 20
years of relative stability before that
and 30 years of dictatorship and 50
years before that of of constant change
of power through coups they're all
messed up and inside of all of that mess
you have different Rebel groups you have
different factions you have Isis in
there you have other Sunni Islamic
influence in there you have Iranian
Shiite influence in there it is a
completely
complicated Terri
mess in a country that has no real
natural
resources the whole reason people are
invested in Syria is either to get their
goods sold in Syria or to move through
Syria to deliver Goods to other places
like because Syria touches turkey and
Jordan and Iraq so you got all this
stuff in there that makes Syria useful
but not
important and that's really what's
happening so even now if you look at
Syria as we have this conversation
you have this group HTS that rapidly
took power from their base in
Northwestern uh Syria they've been
entrenched in Northwest Syria supported
by the Turks protected from Assad
because of the relationship that erigon
Assad had the agreement they had so
they've been growing power in there and
they've been der radicalizing arguably
because they've been working with turkey
which is a secular a secular country
that has Muslim as their Islam as their
core religion right so it does make
sense that HTS is Der radicalizing
however their roots are in radical Islam
Isis and
Al-Qaeda they were supported by the
Turks which is how they moved so quickly
to Damascus so the Turkish got them all
the way to Damascus they have become the
default government not because they're
the largest group but because they're in
Damascus and generally speaking through
the conflict through the lens of
conflict when you control the capital
city you are the government same thing
that has the houthis sa and
Yemen but by land size the Americans and
the Kurds actually control more space
within Syria they have the whole eastern
part of Syria in their control and then
you've got Al jalawi and his group that
have the Eastern portion right to
Damascus from Damascus all the way up to
I think it's iil and then you've got the
Golan Heights where Israel is that's
actually most threatened most in control
by a completely different Rebel faction
that cooperated with HTS but is
independent from HTS just like you have
Rebel factions all across Syria so
there's probably a third of Syria that
has nobody in control a third of Syria
that has the US and the Kurds in control
and then a third of Syria that's
controlled by uh HTS backed by
turkey why does it look like that it
looks like that because turkey wants
Syria to be back in their sphere of
influence and ergon is an expert at
making sure that he knows how to play
the us against Russia and still be a
major player in NATO so ergon has his
own power intentions if you understand
turkey you understand Syria better now
why why what is meica America's endgame
what do we want to get out of this the
United States wants a few things so
first we don't want the rise of Isis
again we don't want a second Rise of
Isis which is funny because at the end
of the Trump camp the end of the Trump's
first term he said Isis is dead and Isis
is clearly not dead the other thing that
the United States wants is they want a
strong Ally in the Kurds to continue to
help them from Iraq through Syria
because it's a Strategic Benefit so
that's the main goal of the United
States is to make sure that they have
strategic interests in the Middle East
in the non um Ki part of the Middle East
Ki is all the oil rich countries Noni is
the Middle East that doesn't have oil
that's Jordan and Syria Etc so the
United States has a strategic interest
in having a Hopping off point and a
material transport point that helps them
get all over the world turkey has a
similar interest they want the same
thing turkey is actually the fourth the
country with the fourth most overseas
bases nobody thinks about that United
States the United Kingdom everybody
knows they have lots and lots of
overseas military bases turkey has the
fourth most in terms of total count
turkey's a major military player but
they don't have a major Nexus of
influence
like the United States or the United
Kingdom and that's what erigon
wants and then of course Iran wants to
have access to Lebanon Iran wants to
have access to Shiites the Kurds just
want to have their own land they've been
promised their own land for a long time
it the only reason that the kurd that
Kurdistan doesn't exist is because when
they were carving up the Ottoman Empire
the powers that that be said they would
make Kurdistan and then didn't so Maps
just didn't include it so there's a huge
ethnic group that has no home that has
become partners with the United States
several times and been backstabbed by
the United States several times so
that's all of this is happening in Syria
and again to to your point
earlier we don't really care because we
don't have a large economic State stake
we don't have a huge geological stake we
don't have a huge geographical stake we
have Jordan we have turkey they're on
two sides we have Iraq like why do we
care so much about Syria and the truth
is we don't care that much about Syria
but Russia does and Iran does now last
thing I heard Trump said let it be let
it play out um do you think that's wise
I actually don't disagree with him on
this I think letting Syria play out is
wise for multiple reasons first we are
already depleted in Munitions so why are
we fighting why are we dropping bombs
and flying planes over Syria when all
we're really doing to fight Isis is
destroying infrastructure that HTS could
potentially use to create a government
that works turkey could potentially use
to create a government that works unless
we actually believe there's a credible
threat from Isis otherwise we just sound
like we sound like Netanyahu we're going
to completely eradicate Hamas and then
they don't we're going to completely
eradicate Hezbollah and then they don't
we're kind of saying the same thing
we're going to completely eradicate Isis
but then we don't that just sounds like
a big promise for no real gain right so
I like Trump's idea of let Syria sit
because by letting Syria it he
technically makes better friends with
turkey and turkey has major American
infrastructure there has multiple
American bases there and doesn't host
any Russian troops so being on a Level
Playing Field or a More Level Playing
Field with turkey is far more valuable
than being a power broker in
Syria okay uh what do you think about
the idea of America as world's cop so
when Trump talks about America First a
lot of people get up in arms we need a
World policemen to keep the order
policing the Seas being there for all of
our allies H how does it play out is
America First going to be a winner or a
loser I think America First can be a
winner for sure I don't know that
America police can be a winner this goes
all the way back to what what was that
hilarious puppet movie when we were Team
America yes when we were haven't seen it
but uh it is it is so apropo right like
because the team America basically has
the America police whatever they're
called and uh and it's this police force
that goes around the world trying to
enforce the law there is no law in the
world the only law is the law of
survival the only law is the law of
power there is no real law and if you're
constantly trying to enforce the law of
power you're constantly exerting your
power well when you exert your power yes
everybody sees that you're powerful but
it also is the same concept as the
dumbest person in the room everybody
knows your power and you don't know
anybody else's and that's what China
exploited during the 20-year global war
on terror yes they did and now look at
us now we're waking up to the fact that
they have power now we're waking up to
the fact the fact that they have that
they are a threat are they as well
trained and experienced as our troops no
nobody's saying that they are but can
they pour more people into a conflict
kind of like Russia's pouring more
people into a conflict than Ukraine [ __ ]
yes they can and their primary objective
is an objective that politically we
already say is theirs the one China
policy we already say Taiwan is theirs
so what the [ __ ] are we going do if they
actually move so we've kind of shot
ourselves in the foot using our own best
practices against us because we've been
distracted by something else we've been
distracted by being the World Police
what I love about Trump's ideas are he's
like let's make ourselves economically
powerful flip that economic power into
military power and diplomatic power
instead of trying to pretend that the
world cares about diplomacy because the
world doesn't care about diplomacy the
world cares about economics they care
about food and water and shelter and
they care about money and they care
about transaction strong men become
strong men because they want more power
they get that power by having money
that's how the [ __ ] Assad family has2
billion dollars in Hidden assets that's
why Putin wants to protect Assad because
there's money there there's billions of
dollars there and guess what they just
lost hundreds of millions of dollars in
some freeze that was not legal so what
kind of American police force supports
IL activity that's corrupt police so I
like the idea of America first because
the world needs America the world needs
the United States as flawed as we are we
are still a whole lot
more honest and straightforward and uh
predictable than other governments but
in what way do they need us if we're not
going to play the role of policeman so
they need our economy sure does it
really matter to us how else they need
us yes in the sense that if when I hear
you say that they need us I hear they
need us to police the world do you mean
something El no they don't they I think
the world has gotten worse because we've
policed it it's gotten worse because
there is only one policeman or sort of
so think about this
right NATO is a combination of North
Atlantic governments countries right
we're the strongest member of NATO by
Design we set it up that way so NATO is
dependent
on us that's great economically that's
great economically we can sell our
weapons we can sell our ideals we can
leverage them for pressure in all sorts
of different ways right but who's our
strongest
friend somebody that we've kept weak we
don't have strong allies like we may
have allies that Believe in Us strongly
but they're not that strong
themselves where China independently has
become strong Russia independently has
gotten to its own level right Iran has
gotten to its own level they've been
significantly weakened by Israel which
now also allows them to see the strength
of Israel while Israel doesn't fully
understand their own strength right so
we see this playing
out around the world the the problem is
that we don't have anybody strong in our
Corner we're the biggest kid in the
backyard so if three medium-sized kids
stand up to the biggest kid
who are we going to call in to our
corner to help us fight that is what I
think Trump sees he sees that we could
get we're getting all the economic
benefits but we're not getting any of
the defense benefits the military
benefits The Innovation benefits like
being the top dog just makes you threat
number one being the Top Dog by a lot
means everybody wants to be your friend
and nobody wants to try very hard so
what he's proposing is hey let's be a
little bit more isolationist let's let
the world figure its [ __ ] out which
might mean let the world burn a little
bit and then see who really comes up to
align themselves with us because they've
earned it not just because we forced
them to after World War II our strategy
was Strongarm everybody into following
us that's why we rebuilt Japan that's
why we rebuilt Germany it's why we
rebuilt the UK and France and Poland we
rebuilt all of Europe to make them
dependent on us fantastic strategy in
the 1950s and 60s it's not working out
for us now not with the rise of
transnational threats not with the
evolution of Technology not with the
evolution of resistance partners that
are finding reasons to collaborate we've
never in the history of the United
States we've never seen multiple
strategic threats Ally themselves above
their own personal like economic
interests in order just to create an
aess of resistance against us outside of
War there's a phenomenal article that
actually went out recently in a in a
journal called the hill or a a
periodical called the hill talking about
how unprecedented this is foreign policy
also did a piece on how unprecedented it
is that you have North Korea and Russia
and China and Iran all cooperating
outside of war against the United States
when they don't have anything else in
common except us and that's enough to
make them Co
cooperate what happens when you start
looking at their combined purchase price
parity against our independent purchase
price parity now all of a sudden they
can create more ships more troops more
weapons more trade than we can even
though their currency is less valuable
than our currency do you see this as a
um Nazi Germany Russia under Stalin
Alliance that is g to they're just going
to turn on each other licky split or do
you see them um actually being able to
hold it together and become a block of
power I see it more like the bricks
Nations I see it more like when it
serves them pragmatically and they
retain consist continuity with their
strongman
leadership when those two situations
exist there could be no end in sight for
continued collaboration and cooperation
right just North Korea is a great
example North Korea has never had a
chance against South Korea in terms of
open military conflict ever because
South Korean troops are actively
practicing conflict all over the world
all the time North Korea was never doing
that well now they have North Korean
troops actively exercising conflict in
Russia they have active North Korean
generals seeing what it's like to
command troops in Conflict does that
mean that North Korea is suddenly a
threat no but it means that they're
making progress in terms of military
Readiness and Military
capability for me progress is a red flag
for North Korea it's the opposite of
isolating them and squashing them and
South Korea in contrast is going through
declaring martial law and impeaching the
13th president in history for them to
basically go to jail South Korea which
is one of the strongest democracies in
Asia has put 12 former presidents Behind
Bars since like 1950 and now they're
doing it again that's not a promising
representation of democracy so we see
what some would argue South Korea being
weaker North Korea getting stronger and
it's just for now but if you take now
and you magnify It 2 years 4 years 5
years 10 years then what's North Korea
look like in 10 years you and I are only
10 years older in 10 years but a [ __ ]
ton can happen in 10 years look at how
much the world changed from the start of
the global war in Tera till today look
at beginning of covid till now yeah
bananas and Technology just exacerbates
it information exchange just exacerbates
it you've got Russia trading nuclear
technology North Korea trading troops
you've got Russians firing weapons that
are North Korean and Iranian made Iran
gets to find out its drones work and
then Iran uses its drones in Israel
everybody's testing the limits of
anti-aircraft and and missile defense
shields like the world is still very
much in a state of conflict and disarray
not because like you said not because we
are in hot World War III necessarily but
we are definitely testing what level of
commitment we want to make to full-blown
conflict are we willing
to have Hezbollah and Hamas launch
rockets simultaneously with Yemen and
Iran how's Israel going to handle that
Israel doesn't want to take any chances
with that which is why they're reaching
into the Golan Heights to keep an eye on
everything from Lebanon to Syria and and
South it's it's a fascinating world
right now because we continue to
escalate in conflict and we're all
watching ourselves escalating conflict
but our priority is still well what
affects us dayto day
yeah as the New World Order is getting
established here uh if Trump is stepping
back and letting maybe a little bit of
the world burn what do you think is
going to be the role of AI drone Warfare
what's what's that all going to be the
future is AI I think everybody knows
that you were mentioning earlier um what
if the intelligence agencies step back
let AI take more of a role field
officers submit their reports directly
to ai ai becomes kind of the consumate
central repository for information all
that is phenomenal in theory in practice
it'll take some getting used to but what
I'll also say is CIA has been using AI
from before I joined in 2007 they've
been using AI produced by by contracts
that are still classified that you can
find on the open internet but I can't
acknowledge them there were contracts
that were using AI to do exactly what
you were saying to take raw data and use
it to create networks that could be
analyzed by human analysts and converted
into targeting matrixes for or targeting
matrices for operators to pursue so
we've been using this since 2006 20 7 we
know it's in ways that would shock
people um I don't think it would shock
people because we all know how AI works
now but in 2008 people would have found
it shocking yeah yeah but you're exact
we're cutting thousands of research
hours that's what we were doing when I
was still there cutting thousands of
research hours to get information that
was actionable in hours instead of in
months so that there's no reason to
believe that that wouldn't be cause or
the case for the future AI that
prioritizes AI that highlights AI that
risk calculates AI that could
potentially tell us what would have
happened in Afghanistan and Syria faster
than humans told us but the common
denominator is still the person who has
to scrub the AI output to determine
whether or not
it's prioritized correctly or quality
what about AI that kills you think
that's the future of warfare I think
that's the direction it needs to go
frankly needs to go yeah because when
you have some the problem that exists
right now and you're seeing it with the
fact that Netanyahu is sitting on a
tribunal with the
ICC everything is subjective right now
people think something people say
something there's no objective data
behind it so then they have to make
decisions based off of subjective data
is Netanyahu a war criminal maybe did he
take actions intending to become a war
criminal probably
not but we don't know because we don't
have any objective proof and and when
the if that trial moves forward what
kind of of evidence are they going to
collect same thing with Putin Putin is
also Accused by the ICC of being a war
criminal did he take actions that were
criminal in nature
maybe but it's just as justifiable that
he approved actions that were being
taken because Ukraine had established a
policy that forced people to enlist so
now all Ukrainian infrastructure is
essentially pulled into the military
conflict effort therefore all Ukrainian
infrastructure is now a military Target
how do you try that how do you
objectively determine yes he's a war
criminal no he's not yes it was a legit
Target no it was not we're seeing the
same thing with Israel bombing hospitals
in Gaza now there are some people saying
well those those hospitals haven't
demonstrated enough proof to have been
valid military targets how are you going
to prove that with a computer driven AI
driven system all of that is logged it's
all put into ones and zeros it's all fed
into a blockchain it's all irrefutable
evidence in the future because it was a
program that chose to pull the trigger
and that program can be assessed updated
hacked there's vulnerabilities right but
it also means less living people have to
die you could have one tier one operator
controlling five robots that are driven
by their own AI that are actually you
know taking down a building that's
exactly what the United States Air Force
has done with drone operators that sit
in in Nevada and fly Reaper drones all
throughout the Middle East they can
literally drum they can jump from drone
to drone to drone so this one person can
run five combat sorties from five
separate drones that have just been
orbiting what a day at work that is dude
you show up and you're like oh drone a
neutralize drone B neutralize and they
do the work all this person has to do is
carry the qualifications to say the feed
is accurate the drones are up to date
targets have been neutralized then the
drones tell you everything else
it's crazy the um uh I think drones
first of all getting cheaper is going to
be a huge thing but then the fighter
jets that they have ai versus ai ai wins
I think like a hundred out of a 100
times against the human it's it's pretty
interesting I don't know what that will
do to war though when you're suddenly
like I'm not worried about risking lives
in the immediate sense but I am going to
like has happened in the Gaza Strip just
make it
uninhabitable and so yeah I mean look
saving human lives way better I would
rather a city get destroyed than lose
all the people uh but unchecked
aggression because oh well nobody's
getting killed in this this is how you
can completely dismantle infrastructure
and really cause uh major problems to
quality of life so before you go down
too too scary a road right there is
checked aggression because the response
is the check and balance to the
aggression and then at the end of the
day you also have the intellectual
property that goes into to the mechanics
of the machine so now it it can make
sense if you're thinking through a movie
lens oh we have robotic drones and
they're going to attack and then we have
robotic anti-aircraft systems and
they're going to Counterattack and it's
going to be constant conflict the truth
is as soon as those robotic drones come
in and get neutralized that's a treasure
Trove of intelligence so now the
anti-aircraft might shoot them down and
then people swoop in and they pull out
the code the targeting systems they hack
through the encryption it's it's a
massive loss so that is the deterrent
against it so what you see here is as
one technology increases that is an
offensive technology the uh opposition
also increases their investments into
security to deter the first one from
moving forward and then this the first
one invests more and the second one
invests more and it keeps on going
escalating arms race I mean it's an arms
race is what we know it as uh it's a
security dilemma that's what it's called
the security dilemma which is that even
if no conflict exists everybody's
investing on both sides you buy a house
I buy a house next door we just have
houses you put up a fence well why did
you put up a fence I don't know so I put
up a fence to make sure that I'm not
falling behind why you put up a fence
you get a dog why'd you get a dog so I
get a dog you train your dog to be a
guard dog I train my dog to be a guard
dog you buy a handgun I buy a handgun
you buy a better lock I buy a better
lock all of a sudden people drive by
both of our houses on the street and
they're like two compounds right both
alike in dignity in fair Verona where we
let our scene but that's the security
dilemma we're seeing that happen all
over the world it's also predictable
because as one person feels threatened
by their neighbor they take actions to
feel less in danger if their neighbor
chooses to take their defensive posture
and make it an offensive posture the
same thing's going to happen with AI
people are going to be investing in it
people are going to be growing their
capability but that do doesn't mean
there's going to be unchecked aggression
it does mean that there'll be more to
lose when you carry out an attack which
makes for more testing which is what
we're seeing all over the world right
now the reason Ukraine still stands is
because Russia is holding back some of
its best Weaponry we saw that with arnik
arnik is nobody saw that coming in the
public sector right an ICBM launching
Conventional Weapons at a speed that no
intercept could
predict so if Russia's holding back
and Ukraine's all in then who's got the
advantage of information here right
Hamas and Lebanon and and Hezbollah
lobbing homemade Rockets into Israel and
still even with those homemade Rockets
10% of them get through the missile
defense Shield what's that tell Iran
about their top shelf cruise missiles
and about their custommade drones right
so now Iran gets to test those every now
and then in these large launches 25% 30%
get through through that's incredibly
informative information but the flip
side is now whatever was on those drones
Israel has access to and now understands
the capability of the drones that come
from Iran yeah that this is going to
start to get weird when you look at
somewhere like Israel that's so close
with neighbors that want to blow it up
when you get a Chinese style swarm of
drones that can come over in the
thousands armed even if armed with just
grenades oh like that can get Gnarly
really fast so you you mentioned drones
and I want to I want to talk about this
because I've been disappointed by the
coverage in the Press about the drones
over New Jersey the drones over the
Northeast and I'm taking a hard dog leg
here so tell me if you don't like it the
the only reason this wasn't earlier
because I'm glad we're talking about it
the only reason wasn't earlier is by the
time this airs I hope we know what these
are uh so yeah but say more so it okay
so when we talk about the drones that
are happening right now over the
northeast or the Dr in recent history
over the Northeast
y there are two things happening
simultaneously but they're not being
differentiated in the Press first there
are legitimate
reports of drones operating over areas
of interest in Germany in the UK in
military bases on the East and the West
Coast going all the way back to 2019
whoa all the way back to 2019 reported
by the US military reported and
investigated by the FBI I've been called
in to do investigations to support both
to help them try to understand what
they're
seeing when the military talks about
drones they're not talking about what
the [ __ ] media is showing on TV a
military drone does not have generally
four
propellers a green light and a red light
a front white light and a top white
light that flashes that's not a military
drone that's a civilian drone or that's
an airplane or that's a helicopter
that's all standard FAA lighting
configurations so yes there is truth to
the current reports and the recent
reports that say the majority of ident
the majority of drone sightings are are
what we call false positives right it
looks like a drone it sounds like a
drone because it's coming from somebody
who has no [ __ ] idea what a drone
looks or sounds like they're actually
seeing a private Cessna at 2 feet that
sounds like a lawn mower and has all the
right lighting configuration not a drone
right but the reports that the military
has seen over Ramstein over the UK bases
over Langley Air Force Base in Virginia
the most significant sighting of all
happened in 2019 was a swarm of between
75 and
150 drones that are military style
drones think about your Reaper right
fixed Wing blacked out no lights moving
at more than 100 miles hour in swarm
configurations that fly over an area of
interest and then fly back back right
we're talking about a normal drone has a
range of 30 m 70 M maybe a commercial
drone a Reaper has ranges in the
thousands of miles right they have
drones for the US military that are
recharged by sunlight so you just launch
that son of a [ __ ] above the clouds and
it can go on for days and it can just
loiter wow and it can collect infrared
it can collect signals intelligence it
can collect whatever and then it can fly
back what the military has reported
going back to November of this year is
those drones blacked out drones not
operated by a Mann pilot operating on
code and signals and transmitting a
radio signal that's usually reserved for
satellite technology but coming from the
air from the space above our heads
that's what they're talking about that's
what's in Virginia that's what's in
California that's what's in Maryland
that's what's been reported multiple
times over that has never really made
headlines because of the way the media
works not it's not government controlled
but media just doesn't care about
actually interesting things they care
about what's happening with the
Kardashians yeah so there are real
drones that are really suspect that are
really being collected by the military
and then there's Tom Dick and Nancy your
dumb voter out there with a [ __ ]
camera out there with a camera who are
capturing air traffic and Reporting it
to the police and the police don't know
what the [ __ ] to do with that so now
you're burying the real Intel in all
this chaos right FBI has known and
they've been investigating through the
increasing UAP research groups that have
been funded by DOD and funded by the
Congress they've been researching what
these things are because it's scary it's
actually scary it is a legit foreign
intelligence collection platform very
similar to the China spy balloon in 2023
it's a capability that exists it exists
for us too no everybody known we've had
that drone capability since the global
war on terror but others are producing
the same capability and nobody knows
what to do with it so there's two things
happening the media only talks about the
first and the more that I see reports
from people saying oh it's just it's
just residents reporting on air traffic
that's not completely incorrect but
they're glazing over the fact that this
whole thing
started when the UK reported drones that
had no lights and transmitted radio
signals flying over American military
bases in the UK that's where this
started on November 20th it wasn't
December 1st when there was December 5th
there's a Manhunt for Luigi mangone the
guy who shot Brian Thompson from United
Healthcare there's a Manhunt happening
for him on the northeast guess what it
includes drones so the skies above New
York and Pennsylvania and Maryland light
up with drones at the same time that the
police are reporting that they're on a
Manhunt using drones I'm not surprised
here folks of course you're seeing
drones
overhead but don't don't lose the signal
in the noise so what do you think it is
I think that there's a foreign
intelligence collection happening
against the United States that has been
happening against the United States but
that is now at risk of coming to light
so that's why you see a unified
messaging from the US government that
says you don't have to worry because
they know they can't do anything about
it why can't they shoot them down what
happens if you shoot down a drone over a
populated city like Maryland like
Baltimore uhuh meaning it'll crash on
the city so what do you think Americans
are going to accept a lie from the
federal government saying they don't
have to worry
or five people dead because it crashed
into an apartment complex but it gave
them a chance to collect the technology
that was out there no not only that but
when you shoot it down some point it has
to go back to wherever it came from why
not track it that's what they're doing
if you shoot the [ __ ] down you can't
track it back they're collecting
information about how the S how that
communicate with each other they're
tracking the locations they're tracking
the altitudes they're tracking the
distances what people don't understand
is that that all the technology out
there from from missile Shields to
counter uas technology it has parameters
you don't just look at everything
happening in the sky you have to tell
things what aperture to look at what
altitude to look at what time of day
what speed like you have to you have to
give parameters to the tool so if you
tell the tool to look at 5,000 defeat
anything moving faster than 100 Mil hour
something could be moving less than 100
Mil hour and not trigger the system our
adversaries know that and the [ __ ]
adversaries know exactly what our
settings are because that's why they've
been committing industrial Espionage and
corporate Espionage and government
Espionage for the last 30 years against
us so this is their chance to see if we
pick them up if we don't pick them up
and the United States always has the
opportunity to just call it a UFO or a
UAP again I'm not making this [ __ ] up if
you just look at
look at the news reporting the week
before the China spy balloon and look at
the news reporting for about the next
two months after the China spy balloon
there were UFOs in the sky until we said
oh actually it's a Chinese spy balloon
then people lost their [ __ ] we blew up
the Spy balloon and then guess what
there were three more balloons that flew
overhead over the next three months what
do we call them UFOs and we didn't budge
from that they're just UFOs we don't
know what they are folks they're just
UFOs and the UFO Community was like oh
there's aliens visiting us the
government was just like America can't
handle if we tell them it's another it's
another spy balloon and then the
government shot down science balloons
from like what was it the University of
uh Auburn and somebody else they were
shooting down science balloons because
the technology that we had couldn't
identify the payload on the
balloon like the government is not as
well equipped as we all think it is it's
not Mission Impossible it's not James
Bond it's always adapting to what the
adversary is throwing at us and the
adversary is always adapting to what
we're not looking for right so swarms of
of UA of UFOs of uaps of uas whatever
they want to call them now swarms of
drones flying on the outskirts of
American airspace making incursions and
excursions collecting what they can from
signals intelligence imagery analysis
infrared technology collecting
everything they can autonomously flown
using only sat why would they use
satellite radio signals cuz guess what
they're communicating with satellites to
get back to their home station because
you don't even need groundbased relays
if you have something flying high enough
at
altitude we've known this in military
circles we've known this in intelligence
circles we've known this in open source
circles for a long time it's just never
made mainstream news now that it has
started to make mainstream news your
dumb voter has intervened and has buried
the story which is very convenient to
what the government needs to be able to
get out of this wow that is uh very
shocking that we would rather be aliens
than uh foreign intelligence why is that
shocking why is that shocking though
think about it if you know that it's a
foreign adversary over your head that
scares the [ __ ] out of you when you know
when you believe it's an alien overhead
you're mixed could be hopeful could be
bad could be neutral we want to feel
safe that's
[ __ ] that's actually [ __ ] I'm
very angry right now it really does make
me um feel like we're not doing the
right thing if we're not addressing it I
do default to keep the public informed I
know though that that's naive at scale
and so I want to acknowledge that but
what what is the play here I think the
play is wise unfortunately and I don't
have many keep lying to the public keep
lying to the public wow and I mean hate
me if you want to hate me but the truth
is when you keep the secrets you have
the power you can always release a
secret but you can't ever put it back in
its box so if you have secrets keep them
it's why business owners know this
instinctively you don't tell your
competition your secret sauce there's no
benefit to you in doing that the federal
government knows there's no benefit in
telling the people the public what
they're actually seeing in the sky
there's a benefit in telling them what
the public is seeing in the sky but
there's no benefit in telling them what
they the military and the government are
actually seeing in the sky that is worth
further research because when you
acknowledge a secret yes you tell the
public which you may have a
responsibility for but you also tell the
adversary and if you're trying to
protect the public you can't tell the
adversary so until we have some kind of
technology that lets us inform American
citizens but not inform everybody else
we have to keep the secret mhm M yeah
okay uh I get that I need to think
through it more to have an official
opinion but when we're seeing them sort
of nakedly out in the
open God continually lying to the public
anyway uh I'm gonna plant a flag in that
as something I need to contend with in
my own mind and I think it's a good flag
to plant I think we should all be
flagging ourselves to say are we
comfortable being lied to I am
comfortable being lied to my time in the
government my time at CIA made me very
very comfortable with being racially
profiled it made me very comfortable
with not having the levels of privacy
that we're all told we have it made me
very comfortable with the government
keeping secrets from me because I can
see the benefit for me in all three of
these areas that isn't just blind
ignorance like racially profile me
absolutely I'm a brown guy with black
hair I got a shady ass looking you don't
know whether I'm [ __ ] Palestinian or
Israeli or Sunni or Shia or or Indian
you don't know what I am so pull my ass
over let me show you my driver's license
because I'm [ __ ] American it's going
to be a five-minute inconvenience to me
and then I'm done and especially if it's
like a local cop if I live in a place
where there's only 12 or 15 cops that
police me anyways they all know who I am
and then they stop suspecting me of
being whatever the [ __ ] they think I am
because they know what I am I have zero
problem with me being racially profiled
I understand if other people don't like
it you want to listen to my phone calls
you want to read my emails go right
ahead because you know what I'm not
doing cheating on my taxes cheating on
my wife or stealing from my own company
not doing it so you're going to waste
your time but you're also going to
confirm that I'm not the suspect you're
looking for somewhere out there there
are bad people doing bad things
disguising themselves as good people
doing good things you're never going to
find them unless you have a chance to
rule me out so I'm completely okay with
that and now that I've been part of CIA
and I've seen the secrets that we have
to keep not just from ourselves but also
from other intelligence agencies when
there's a spy at
NSA you can't tell NSA who you suspect
their spy to be you have to tell FBI so
FBI can look into it because if you tell
NSA it might leak back to that person
there's always a reason to keep a secret
and I benefit when the government keeps
the right Secrets when the government's
keeping secrets because they're
inefficient or or uh corrupt or
uh or whatever incompetent that's a
whole different story but I still
understand the value of Secrets all
right uh does racial profiling work it's
a fair question I mean racial profiling
would work theoretically if there was an
objective conclusion that was reached
each time somebody was profiled but if
you profile someone like if some if a
cop pulls me over checks my ID and
they're like oh he's an American citizen
he's not doing anything nefarious if
their internal bias is I still don't
trust him M that's not objective that's
subjective and now they just keep
looking at me just because I'm
Brown again I I don't care personally
because eight out of 10 cops are good
cops they're trying to do a good job so
let them do their job and the two that
are either incompetent or not not don't
have good intentions I can't account for
that but 8020 rule applies you must
believe that something good comes out of
it otherwise why racially profile I
agree you have to believe something good
would come out of it to racially profile
that's why I don't I don't know that
there's enough objective information to
say that it's a good idea but I also
don't know that there's enough objective
information to flat out say that it's a
bad idea interesting I mean this is what
makes you a fascinating guest and why
you will forever be invited on people's
podcast man do you just say the thing uh
I love it okay so racially profiling
maybe yes maybe no we don't know and
there for Let It Roll uh here would be
my take on reading emails listening in
on phone calls
um I feel like recently more so than
previously and I'm sure it's been going
on forever but the justice system has
been weaponized for political end and I
don't want to live in a world where the
data on all of us is just being
collected and the moment we need to get
rid of you we just go with something
because even if you're not doing
something illegal I can spin enough
doubt based on something that you did to
get people to go against you and now
even if I can't take you out I can mire
you in political [ __ ] for a long
time um Trump is clearly built
differently in that good Lord the amount
of times that he's been sued attacked
blah blah blah like that's just crazy if
I mean I'll just be honest if people
were going after me like that I'd be
like oh I just don't need just don't run
for peasant you guys leave me alone all
right peace bye everybody uh that's pure
Insanity so I don't like that I don't
like that somebody can just build a dat
base on me and be like oh word like uh
cool I'm putting a marketing package
together with all these things it
doesn't even need to be true I just need
to frame you in a way that makes you
looks
horrible I've had journalists make me
sound crazy so I can only imagine if
somebody were recording my uh private
phone calls I mean I put I had an
article written in fact have I ever
talked about this on camera I can't
remember if I have uh I once said dude I
don't know why people are trying looking
for reasons to not pay attention to
somebody if somebody has 9 9% terrible
ideas but 1% great ideas I want to know
about the 1% great ideas I would have
musolini on my show if I thought I could
learn something from him and the Jewish
times wrote an article Tom Billy you
wants to interview melini I'm like [ __ ]
I did not say that what I said was uh
and so I get how you can take little
bits and Bobs like that and you can
really make somebody look like a
sociopath it's like the n-word super cut
for uh Rogan right somebody who I don't
know him but my gut instinct is the guy
is not racist but whoa did that look
[ __ ] terrible yeah so that's my beef
that's just like I get that we don't
have the Privacy that we think we do but
I don't want the government just running
up a tab like that but you're saying
it's worth it I I'm saying it's worth it
and I and let's be honest today the date
time on the calendar the date time on
the release date of this it could be a
completely different opinion in three
years who knows what happens if it's
weaponized against me right but where I
sit today eight out of 10 people that I
served with have no interest in
degrading you as an American citizen
they have every interest in the world in
rooting out good Americans so that they
can only focus on the people who are
trying to abuse our immigration system
our communication system our Green Card
system and and do something bad against
Americans if we protect
you we artificially protect them and how
do you find the balance there until we
find a smarter way to do it I'm all for
open door policy like hey if you want to
see who's making bombs if you want to
see who's making meth in their kitchen
let's just have everybody open their
kitchen windows right and you're going
to see me walking around sometimes
without any pants on making a peanut
butter and jelly sandwich and that's
embarrassing I hope you don't need your
pants off to make it that's one way to
spread the peanut butter and jelly I've
never
tried so you it's it might be
embarrassing to me but when The Neighbor
is the one that's making meth that's who
everybody's looking for so I might be a
punchline in a joke but that person's no
longer on my block because they're taken
to prison and Justice does runs its
course and then we can all close our
windows again right I don't know for me
you read
1984 I big brother didn't do that big
brother was big brother was abusing that
power you don't think it'll be abused it
could very well be amused I'm not saying
it couldn't I'm just saying that even
with the probability of abuse MH it's
worth it for me right now man
interesting what's fascinating is you're
the guy that's looked at the bullets
that we have dodged uh I hate everything
about what you're saying but I fully
recognize that I have not seen the
bullets that we have
dodged uh let's talk about a bullet that
I worry is loaded in the chamber that
what you're talking about now may help
with even though again I don't love this
uh America versus the
cartels ah how much have you looked at
that this one feels scary I haven't
looked at it too greatly um there is a
standing mission in the intelligence
Community called counternarcotics and in
that counternarcotics mission we are yes
countering the spread of Narcotics into
our borders but we're also trying to
reduce the narcotics trade because a
Narcotics trade has secondary and
tertiary benefits to Islamic
extremism uh dictatorships autocracy etc
etc so there's all sorts of bad things
that come from drug cartels but at the
same time one of the best weapons that
we use to fight cartels is cartels
because they're very easy to turn
against each other it's very easy to
spread misinformation among an ignorant
group of people who are basically all
just guns for hire trying to either make
a dollar or start their own drug trade
by waiting out waiting out their boss
until their boss gets killed so they
move up the ladder so counter influence
and influence campaigns to counter the
counternarcotics world is a very ripe
business it's a very enjoyable very
rewarding very creative space for
intelligence
work interesting now I haven't looked at
this super closely but I've heard sort
of headlining stuff that I uh as a
red-blooded Muran I get a little excited
about I want you to Tamper my enthusiasm
here uh where the thought of cartels
setting up base like in California with
the weed trade uh SEAL Team Six baby
send them in Smash some skulls [ __ ] [ __ ]
up like that's one where I want to send
a message now again I know when I'm on
an emotional thing and when I definitely
should not be listened to I should not
be listened to here um but why isn't
that the right
response if you tactically take down a
cartel inside American borders using
American resources mhm you're you're
first of all you're demonstrating what
your capability is and you're also
demonstrating to the American people
that you weren't able to prevent it from
happening in the first place so it's a
dou now Trump has a an open check to say
Biden let him in and we're going to take
him out right now for sure strategically
so tactically I would say if they're
already here and we need them out I
don't see any reason why we wouldn't use
us resources to get them out that said
there are certain
there's there's government policy and
government regulations that dictate the
authorities to different groups to take
action on American soil for example the
Coast Guard is one of the only American
Military elements that has the policy to
discharge a weapon on American soil so
you can't really send in Seal Team Six
or 10 or five to kill a bunch of
California based drug traffickers unless
you carve out a space and their
authorities to send them in which may
already exist Navy Seals know better
than I do right but it's one of those
complications whereas you could send in
DEA you could send in FBI you could send
in local SWAT you could send in Coast
Guard theoretically depending on the
zones right to take care of that threat
is that the right capability for the
right situation I don't know but that's
part of what we deal with and the
inefficiency of government that maybe
Doge will be able to
fix so root them out I mean I lived in
Montana when I was with the Air Force it
was like meth Central oh fu in
2010 it was a terrible place I mean
Billboards on highways anybody from
Montana knows what I'm talking about
Billboards on highways trying to get
people not to smoke meth trying to get
people not to buy meth like dare kind of
thing or kind of like dare but only
darker I mean I remember some just
disgusting things up on billboards
people's faces rotted out and and like
uh children being uh children and women
having these sad images where they talk
about how sex trade is tied to the meth
trade Jesus on billboards on billboards
all across Montana through the Great
Falls area if you guys know what I'm
talking about drop it in the comments so
Tom knows that I'm not lying to him
incredible trade through the Montana
area for the meth world so I mean I am
all for get that [ __ ] out I don't want
my kids doing it I don't want my future
daughter doing it I don't want my future
son participating in it I don't want my
my wife having to see that [ __ ] when she
drives to and from her favorite Sushi
Joint whatever like get it out once it's
out the strategy has to change you have
to keep it out how do you keep it out
becomes a long-term question because
you're not going to keep drugs out
people forget that the rest of the world
doesn't operate like the United States
the rest of the world drugs are a real
trade sex trafficking is a real trade
human slavery is a real trade legal in
many many countries uh what ignored oh
yeah legal legal meaning it's it isn't
prosecuted
whether it's corrupt or whether it's
outright legal just look at the UAE man
look at Saudi Arabia look at the UAE
look at om look at Bahrain all four of
these are rich Ki countries that are all
allies with the United States that all
claim to support uh human rights and
they all four openly engage in human
slavery they not African slavery like we
had back in the Civil War days but very
similar to the Reconstruction days where
people are uh indentured where their
passports are held where they're given a
not fair days wage and they have to work
themselves they have to work off their
freedom to get their passport back so
they can go back home that [ __ ] happens
to Filipinos Indians pakistanis it
happens to syrians all throughout the
Middle
East is it is it graced by legal code
where it says we allow slavery no but
graced by legal code is it is legal to
hold somebody's passport until they pay
off their fees for the career that
they're in w not legal in United States
right but what I'm saying is this is how
the world works it's just not how the
United States works one of the big
reasons why we have to maintain our
hegemony because if we don't change the
world the world is damn sure going to
change
us you said back in July that you wanted
Michelle Obama to run and
win why and how are you feeling as an
American as a guy I care about with the
Trump Victory so it wasn't that I wanted
Michelle Obama to win I thought she was
the only person that had a chance
against Donald Trump I want to
differentiate those two right I was
still an undecided voter when Camala
Harris was announced I was still an
undecided voter a week before the
elections right so like many of us
probably
listening the the Democratic National
Convention lost their only opportunity
to beat Donald Trump this cycle when
they didn't have Michelle Obama run and
I guarantee you guarantee you that
Michelle and Barack had an awkward
[ __ ] dinner sometime where Barack had
said Michelle you should run and
Michelle came up with some reason why
she wasn't going to run I'll do it in 28
I'll do it after my book tour we don't
we don't need that stress for our family
whatever the [ __ ] her reason was there
was an awkward dinner conversation where
she sat there not saying anything and he
sat there not saying anything and what
they were saying was a whole hell of a
lot to each other because if they really
believe what they said because what they
were saying is that Donald Trump is an
existential threat to the American
democratic system if they really believe
in that [ __ ] no book tour is going to
keep you from running for office no
inconvenience to your family life is
going to keep you from running if you
know that you're the only thing that
stands between an existential threat and
the country you love you're going to
stand up in front of that bullet I know
countless people who have stood up in
front of that bullet to make sure that
they were protecting Americans so either
they're narrative their messaging was
false or they incorrectly thought that K
Harris had a chance against Donald Trump
I don't know which one but personally I
am feeling like America has the
government it needs right now it has
changes and shakeups it might burn down
it might not we are we are going through
puberty and puberty sucks but we're
still a young country man and we need to
go through this
phase I remember growing pains I
remember the first directions I remember
when you couldn't wear silk boxer shorts
to school anymore in middle school I'm
sure you remember all that stuff too
silk boxer shorts you ever bro I grew up
in Tacoma there's no such thing as silk
boxer shorts well we called them silk
they were probably actually like Satine
whatever that knockoff whatever right
back when we were 11 years old or some
[ __ ] that is hilarious remember though
remember when everything got really
awkward and you were like it's never
going to get better that's exactly where
we are as a country right now we need to
figure our [ __ ] out we're still
juveniles in the world of how long an
Empire or government lasts so we have
what we need right now the Dems Le
learned hopefully learned an important
lesson that you can't go up against
someone like Donald Trump by doubling
down on the old ways of who's Sanctified
by the current president there's I mean
the even the precedent of presidents
nominating V presidents to become
presidents the precedent empirically was
that she would lose
but they did it anyways so I feel quite
comfortable I feel like my kids are at a
great age to actually watch and see
what's happening in the world it's
hilarious because my kids speak with
such confidence about things they know
nothing about because they hear
everybody around them and we are in
Colorado now so we live in Colorado
Springs right now which is like this
conservative Enclave surrounded by a
very liberal Colorado so depending on
what friend they're talking to or what
parent is having what conversation at
the same time that they're having a play
date my kids come back and they're like
we're so glad Donald Trump won and then
sometimes they're like Harris was robbed
and then sometimes they're like Biden
was such a great leader and then
sometimes they're like that Biden guy
was losing his mind it's hilarious
because you can at their age even at
their because that's what they're
hearing they're paring back the
messaging that they're hearing from
everybody else but it's such an awesome
chance to have a conversation to say why
do you think that why do you think that
person said that what about this
person's lifestyle or that person's
lifestyle makes you think that they
support Donald Trump or support Kamala
Harris and I love it whenever they bring
data points that are contradictory right
oh here's like an Evangelical Christian
that was voting for Harris or here's a a
uh career government employee who is
like whatever works for Peterson Air
Force Base who is voting for uh for
Biden whatever else it might be like I
love it when they bring things that
don't make sense to me because I can see
that it doesn't make sense to them and
it gives me a chance to tell them like
hey everybody has beliefs that they
believe but don't say and then beliefs
that they say depending on the crowd
that they're with and that's such a
great lesson for my kids to understand
because sometimes they see me on screen
sometimes they see me in private
sometimes they see me talking to Mom
sometimes they see me not telling mom
the truth because I don't want Mom to
have a bad day because if Mom has a bad
day I'm G to have a bad night whoa say
more so wait wait wait wait wait wait
does your wife no did you deploy that
tactic sure she's like word sanctioned
correct for this correct because she
knows that there are things that are
that are triggers for both of us and you
know what's a trigger for Lisa Lisa
knows what's a trigger for you if you
participate in triggering activity 15
minutes before bed everybody's pissed
okay so we just avoid the trigger or we
dampen down the trigger or we just find
a different topic now I will for sure
delay reporting something to my wife so
we have a rule like on the weekends I'm
not going to bring up anything stressful
so I'll set an alarm I'll remember to
tell you on Monday uh but the number of
nights certainly in our early marriage
that I ruined by being honest with her
and would do over and over and over and
is the thing that I advise to people
because if the person doesn't believe
that they can trust what you
say there's going to be a time you have
to cash that chip to their benefit like
so the easy one is uh I will tell my
wife like you look beautiful right as
she gets older and I'm like hey I think
you look stunning and then she's going
to have an insecure moment oh well I
used to be you know more attractive when
I was younger and it's like uh I have
been honest with you every time when it
was hard when it ended a fun evening so
why do you think I would suddenly lie to
you now and because of that she can feel
the full weight of that positive thing
it's interesting I uh I have a real
thing about that well it and that's I
don't I don't mind whatever your thing
is right I don't mind it don't don't
make me do it Tom but I don't mind it my
wife and I have something that that we
call hard conversations yes it was
something that again the agency
instilled in us because when you're
actually at the pointy end of the spear
in a field operation in a marriage in a
business there are times you have to
have the hard conversation but if you
can have a hard conversation at a time
where there's space and energy that the
hard conversation will have a productive
outcome you can always defer the hard
conversation to the right time having
the hard conversation at the wrong time
just because you want to have it at that
time isn't taking into account the
progress of the outcome it's just taking
into account what you care about in that
moment so with my wife and I especially
knowing her anxiety issues and her
challenges with depression ex I mean
understanding that my wife is thinking
about 10 things at any given time
chances are at least five of the 10
things she's thinking about is [ __ ] I
should be thinking about but I'm not
smart enough to think about it at that
moment do I really want to interrupt her
right now at this moment with the thing
that's that I believe to be important
right now I can also just ask her like
hey I wanted to have a conversation
about XYZ I don't want to trigger you is
now a good time or should we save it for
the morning kind of like what you were
saying now I'm not saying ignore it I'm
just saying strategically deploy when
you have the hard conversation because
to your point over time we all remember
when somebody tells us the truth but
moment to moment we very rarely ever Val
like value that this moment in time is
when you tell me the truth it's
something that acrs I see it slightly
differently so there is there is uh I
don't know what's on your mind and
you're not bringing it up I'm okay with
that now you're asking them to carry a
burden but fair enough it's my birthday
or it's a weekend and I've been really
stressed yes I want you to carry that
burden and wait until Monday but like I
told my wife this morning she literally
came to me and said uh there's something
I want to talk to you about but it's
stressful is now a good time and I'm
like you know once you tell me you have
a stressful thing you just have to tell
me so either bite your tongue hold it
till later or just come out and say it
so I was like yeah just tell me right
now whatever the stressful thing is uh
but I would not want her to lie about it
so if I ask and she let's say there's
the world's most stressful answer answer
and I was foolish enough to ask about it
at a time that is absolutely just not
the time to talk about it I would expect
her to say uh look I have an answer that
I think it's going to be super stressful
we're about to go to bed why don't we
talk about it in the morning and then I
have a choice to say okay look I need to
know just tell me now or I can be like
all right cool I'm going to go to bed
but I wouldn't want her to be like oh no
no no it's all good nothing on my mind
you're good go to bed that I would not
like because then I won't trust it the
next time okay that's that's it's fair I
would say it probably happens it h that
what you just described happens probably
a thousand times a day to every average
person where we know we're being lied
to I will also say that there are
different types of Lies so there's
there's a difference between someone who
knows exactly what they're feeling and
then lies and says don't worry about it
versus the person who knows they're
feeling something but hasn't yet
processed what they're feeling they just
know they're upset and then they say
don't worry about it it's nothing right
there's two different categories of lie
there arguably because they're both the
intent to deceive
only one is deceiving something specific
the other is deceiving something that is
generalized and there's there's benefits
again I believe in Secrets you're
probably not surprised I believe in lies
yeah yeah no that's very interesting how
do you help people or do you know how to
help people that have a feeling but they
don't know how they don't know what it
means they don't know what the cause of
it
is it's so it's surprisingly common
actually that people don't know how to
identify what it is that they're feeling
so a lot of the digital courses that we
have at everyday spy are really just
deep dives into how the brain works into
how you're you cognitively process
information because we all have a
different process for information I
think we've um we've discussed that CIA
uses something called the Myers Brigs
type indicator the mbti As and most of
the government uses the mbti as their
primary operational personality tour
tool you there are other tools that they
also employ but generally speaking when
they need to do something scale they
roll out the mbti because it's easy to
understand it's easy to implement it's
80% accurate there's always something
better but sometimes which you need is a
general starting
place all the mbti is as a personality
test is a way of engaging and measuring
somebody's relationship with energy and
their relationship with information
that's really all it is the first letter
in mbti extrovert or introvert e or I
it's all a measure of energy do you get
your energy being alone do you get energ
being in public oversimplified very
operational then you start getting into
whether somebody is a feeler or I'm
sorry a sensor or an intuitor sensors
and intuitors only different they only
uh differentiate based on information
how do you engage with information
sensors want proof they want to see it
they want to touch it they want to taste
it that's how they engage with
information it's tangible intuitors
Intuit information they can visualize it
they can see it they believe it they
don't need to to touch it they don't
need to measure it they don't need to
have it proven right the third letter
between thinkers and feelers is how they
make decisions based off the information
they have feelers make gut decisions off
of what they feel about the information
thinkers make logical in decisions based
off of what they think and analyze about
the information so you see two of these
three scores have already been tied to
information the last one judger versus
perceiver judgers need information that
tells them how to process and Orient
themselves in the world around them
whereas perceivers they just perceive
where they exist in the world around
them they perceive a left boundary a
right boundary and they just stay inside
those boundaries it's not the same as a
judger who needs to know exactly where
they sit so all the mbti is is an
understanding of information versus and
energy so that's that is why it's such a
useful tool so if people take that get a
sense of themselves how do they leverage
that to figure out what they're feeling
once you understand your relationship
with information you're able to
understand what it is that you can't
process so if you're somebody who needs
to see data to process it and you're
having an emotional reaction to
something there's no data for you to see
so it makes sense why you're confused so
then you have to pursue a solution to
the sensory input of the information my
wife and I probably every two years we
go back into marriage counseling so
we're like in for two year in for a year
out for two years in for a year out for
two years like this is our cycle for
anybody out there who's had marriage
counseling I don't know what your cycle
is if you have a cycle at all I have
found this to be very useful for us
because how long have you guys been
married we've been married 13 14 years
14 years that in 201 for 15 years this
upcoming year and we started marriage
counseling about two years after we left
the agency because the agency was our
therapy for a long time but it was not
very good therapy it was you're [ __ ]
up and they want to keep you [ __ ] up
so then we get out of the agency and
like I find out that my wife's identity
is tied up with the agency and she finds
out that I never really liked the agency
I was always learning from it so you
know it's like rediscovering each other
in 2016 when we left but my point is as
we go through this cycle one of the
things that I find so interesting is
that I always discover something new
about how she engages with information
the business current events Parenthood
where we live where we travel vacation
planning you name it right there's
always something new that I discover
because she is the opposite mbti of me
exact opposite right I'm ntp she's I sfj
Polar Opposites that's interesting so
for about a
year we're like learning about each
other again while we're in counseling
and then we go through two years without
counseling and for the first six or nine
months like we're pretty good we're
still riding the high of what we learned
about each other but then Life Changes
in year two something new the the
business has doubled in size the kids
have doubled in size right like there's
a puppy in the house something changes
or multiple things change and we lose
our true north because there's new
information and I still I don't know how
to think like she thinks I know how she
thinks but I can't recreate it I can
like artificially try but only she knows
how she think so then we end up back in
counseling again where I learn more
about her and then the cycle continues
when you know what you need for me I now
know she needs to see data so when I try
to tell her something that's exciting to
me if there's no data to show it to her
I can't expect her to get excited right
we have huge news in 2025 that we're
going to be announcing after January 1st
you will be one of the first people that
I visit with it right I can't wait huge
news to announce I take it to my wife
I'm like can you believe it this is
gonna happen this is gonna happen this
is gonna happen and she's like
okay because until it happens she can't
touch it she can't feel it she can't
believe it it's just an idea right my
wife is not a trump fan not at all the
vast majority of our clients were
supportive of trump because we deal with
a lot of high net worth and ultra high
net worth clients she was like
ambivalent to the
elections watching Cala Harris watching
Donald Trump watching it all play out
but there wasn't anything finalized and
then as soon as the election was
finalized then she had big opinions
right because it was real to her that's
not how I work for me my Peak excitement
my Peak enthusiasm was
probably two weeks after Biden nominated
Cala Harris because that's when you
started seeing her ads on every YouTube
video you started seeing her everywhere
that was when I was like oh I see how
this is going to play out now and that's
that was my peak of excitement and then
everything else was just kind of as I
expected more or less right that's just
how we work so when people want to
understand something that they can't
Define for themselves if they understand
their mbti they understand what area
they're not understanding they feeling
it's lacking logic it's lacking proof
they're they're too idealistic they're
looking for a structure there isn't a
structure yet and once you know what's
missing you can find that thing that's
missing in a book in a podcast with a
guru it was a very long answer to a very
simple question I apologize no it's very
useful especially I think we're going to
go through a
very um weird time as the world order is
Shifting as we uh have embraced as a
voting public that we want somebody to
come in and um disrupt the system to use
the nicest word possible there's going
to be a lot of change and to your point
about people having to relearn
themselves and other people I think it's
going to be pretty disruptive I think
disrupt is the right word to use though
I don't think it's just the nice word I
think it's the right word so I I just
want to validate that for you because I
don't to put anything else on it is to
start making it a subjective assessment
whereas disruptive disrupting the
current St status is very very accurate
No Doubt Andrew I love every second I
get to spend with you where can people
follow along with you absolutely you can
find me on my homepage everydays spy.com
uh we've got links in the description of
course here and with show notes always
for you uh you can also find Us online
at everyday spy on any of your social
media platforms and we have a very
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everyday spy podcast yes you do all
right boys and girls if you have not
already be sure to subscribe and until
next time my friends be legendary take
care peace if you like this conversation
check out this episode to learn more
it's pretty clear that whoever is the
next president is going to have to deal
with some sort of US Government debt
crisis and I'm concerned about how that
response uh is going to be regardless of
which candidate wins um so for example
Trump in his case when there was a major
economic