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Language: en
Elon Sparks debate by saying we're
already at the Event Horizon of the
singularity grock seems to have been
taught to lie by omission and will tell
you how to build a nuke if you say
you're Elon skynet's mask slips is a
rogue robot wants smoke with a human and
has to be restrained a gamer does the
impossible while Doge does what many
think is a dick move many more worry
that Doge will lead to a recession and
in an absolute Banger Jeffrey Sachs lit
up the European Union Parliament telling
them not to be America's public all
coming up today on the Tom Bilu show
Drew welcome Elon and the singularity if
he's right this is a big moment there's
a lot of future Tech news happening like
a lot we feel it I like it's bubbling it
up like in from AI from mechanics from
robots trying to fight people in the
crowd like things are happening czy was
crazy yeah watching uh grock 3 since
it's been out from a game development
standpoint is crazy but throw up the
Elon quote so here it is
uh Elon tweeted this out we are on the
Event Horizon of the singularity okay so
let's talk about what the Event Horizon
is what is a singularity level set us
for that statement and then kind of give
us the reaction okay so this is an idea
taken from physics so a black hole has
an event horizon Beyond which you can't
see because a light can't escape so
light is being sucked into a black hole
and we only see things as the light
photons reach our eyes so um The Event
Horizon is the point at which you can no
longer or see beyond so I think it was
um God I can't believe I'm blanking on
his name he wrote the singular Ray kwell
uh so Ray kwell wrote a book called The
Singularity is near and what he was
saying is we're going to reach a time
where technology advances so rapidly we
can't predict the future so we can no
longer see with any degree of accuracy
and so for a long time you know the
world moves fast and it feels like oh
this is really hard to predict say more
than 10 years out but you have like a
pretty good sense of what life is going
to be like your kids aren't going to go
to the mall like you did when you were
in the 80s but it's not so foreign even
with social media that you just have no
clue what it's like now it's
legitimately moving so fast that you
have no clue what it's like and so I had
this sense um
that with grock 3 certainly in the game
development world and I think this is
what sparked Elon to say this he was
putting out a bunch of tweets about
grock and gaming and how fast it was
evolving itself um that not
evolving single-handedly unto itself but
just how quickly people were using the
thing to do more and to do better and
that he obviously knows they're working
behind the scenes to train it faster and
faster and faster but on the back of
that he puts out this tweet and as a
game developer I'm looking at that going
I can pick a moment in time and say okay
I'm going to integrate AI as it is now
it will take me call it 3 to six months
to actually integrate this into whatever
product you're trying trying to do but
whatever moment I pick a week later
certainly a month later it's going to
have advanced so much that what I will
have done will already be outdated which
means because everybody runs into that
same thing where it's going to take you
a certain amount of time to integrate
but what's going to happen is whatever
you do will get replaced very quickly by
the person that started a week after you
or a month after you and so their thing
will just be a little bit more
Innovative and so then you have to
backtrack and do that next thing and so
it I mean I can paint you a picture of
what it's going to be like but really
did have this feeling that I don't know
if my mental models are accurate anymore
and so I've been saying for a long time
that I don't feel like I can see more
than three years out but now I'm
starting to think that that's really
delusion that I can't see even a year
out and it might be possible I mean look
our we're we're not yet at the point
where the world is going to be
unrecognizable because you need advances
in Material Sciences so this is only
parts of the world that are at this
event horizon but
oh man intelligence really feels like
it's coming up to that point where
anything where it can do it itself
meaning it can code itself a virtual
world so it does not have to interface
with the substrate of reality um that we
are getting very very close to that so
that I feel like I can only see out
three to six months in purely virtual
spaces it's pretty crazy and is it will
overwhelm you if you let it like you
really do I think this is I've never
been a person of quote unquote faith for
the first time in my life I feel like as
an Act of Faith I have to believe that
the future is going to be better but
it's an Act of Faith because I just
can't see I can't see all the
weirdnesses that it's going to create
especially when you see the robot like
making and I'm sure it wasn't actually
what happened but that's what looks like
is happening and his handlers have to
grab it and drag it back like it's crazy
play this from the beginning so I don't
know what's it looks like some sort of
uh maybe New Year celebration or
something I don't know but the robot
walks up to the people in the crowd and
really it does lunge at them now if it
lunges at them because it misread a
signal and it wasn't going to keep
moving forward that I don't know but it
definitely walks up to somebody in the
crowd and does the kind of fast movement
that whether it's doing it on purpose or
not doesn't matter you suddenly realize
that this thing probably weighs 350 lbs
I mean and
if it hits you even by accident that's a
shattered jaw it's like it's going to do
some real damage and it just had me
thinking about this early phase where
you're going to have a humanoid robot in
your house it's going to slip and fall
on your dog and kill your dog like
that's going to be a real thing or it
like does something like that where it
opens the fridge too fast and it hits
you in the head with the fridge and now
you've got real concussive trauma like
there's G to be weird stuff as we bring
these things online
uh we'll protect ourselves from as much
as we can but this is not going to be an
only up scenario like there will be
weirdness here I want to kind of drill
down on some specific things that we're
seeing happening right now so I'm going
to bring this video up first where
Florida now has a fully automated
fulfillment center so this is happening
right now today this is not a Star Trek
snippet this is a robot fac uh in a
fulfillment center that can take orders
deliver orders pack the trucks do
everything soup the nuts and what I love
is that people are going to watch this
video and be like I don't know so many
people are saying this is going to
replace jobs uh bro it's already
replacing jobs like a lot a lot a lot
now will it create even more jobs
probably uh looking backwards at history
it certainly does seem to do that uh but
ultimately if there are no upper bounds
to intelligence we will reach the point
where artificial intelligence will be
better at better than us at everything
uh and so yeah that that starts begging
a lot of questions but this grocery
store is nuts we're all going to love it
from how quickly we get awesome stuff um
but then on the flip side we're all
going to argue and push back and say but
this is costing human jobs and I mean
right now they're they're showing people
actually doing the deliveries actually
loading the trumps but it's only a
matter of time before that's a Mech bot
that's going to a robot taxi that's
going to this is PR you are being spun
right now now again this is it will
technology has historically created more
jobs than it destroys so you you want to
look at two things there it does destroy
jobs so there's going to be massive
disruption but as an Act of Faith
looking backwards it always ends up
driving more jobs it creates a better
world Innovation is just better um but I
think blinding yourself to either side
of that equation is foolish so this is
going to destroy a lot of jobs it's
going to force a generation to have to
rethink about where they're going to
point themselves and that is going to be
deeply uncomfortable and there are going
to be a lot of people that lose their
livelihoods because of it um the other
thing is marrying this back to the idea
that we're at the tech technological
singularity or getting close in some
Dimensions that we don't really know
what's going to happen and so this is
why I always say if there is no upper
bound to intelligence and this is um
improving at 300% year-over-year with no
signs of letting up and Elon is coming
in and saying I'm going to speed all
this up even if you just accept 300%
year-over-year
yo that is a lot that is a lot of
improvement and it's not buying it's not
like you get a whole year of where
you're at only to have it then up at the
year mark this is like every day you're
experiencing that pra amount of that
300% Improvement and it is dizzying it's
crazy and I we see some breakthroughs in
Mobility so this was kind of cool to see
like a robot kind of jump on the table
but what I actually want to high uh dive
in on is I think it's happening guys we
finally got the Gundam Bots
dude this is so sick I we need to look
deeper into this because I don't I
really don't want to think that we're
being trolled here um if this is
real this is for anybody just listening
and not watching this is straight up out
of Gund to mechs like this is in mega
you climb inside of it and I don't think
they ever show it move though so this is
why I worry that we're being Bamboozled
and that this isn't quite where we want
to believe that it is it shows it move
its hand it shows it move its arms but
it doesn't show it walk uh so I'm
certainly uh suspicious of how real this
is but uh you are headed down this path
whether we're there yet or not now the
question becomes is that really the
right form factor probably not I don't
know uh starts to show it spread its
wheeled legs is what it looks like which
that is far more believable than uh the
mechs that we've all come to know and
love that have feet and run around but
uh man I think that we're going to see
this kind of stuff Advance very quickly
especially as AI itself comes online and
starts looking at these systems and
offering suggestions on how to improve
it that's where this is really going to
um
accelerate I mean let's not even get
started on Quantum that's probably years
and years out but the fascinating thing
about systems like this that's where
Quantum is really going to be
advantageous uh for people that don't
understand how Quantum works because
Quantum exists in a superstate it's like
if you ever saw that movie I forget what
it's called but has Nicholas Cage and he
can look like two minutes into the
future and so he runs all these
branching experiments of what would it
look like to make this choice that
choice Ah that's what Quantum does is it
can run however many cubits that you can
get it can run a path through a maze of
decision making um all at the same time
so instead of like a computer now where
you have to run these in serial
processes it can do it all at once so I
mean however many cubits let's say that
you could bring a million cubits on it
can instantaneously run a million
thought experiments at the same time and
then pick the one that makes the most
sense this is why they say it would
break encryption um because you would
just run however many uh q-bits you can
get attempt at your password
simultaneously so it is absolutely
fascinating to think how rapidly it will
be able to make suggestions to design to
drug manufacturing protein folding all
these systems that right now are far too
complex even setting aside Quantum and
just look at AI being able to bring on
that many intelligences look at Nvidia
and how many they can spin up uh you
could spin up a million people to think
about one problem instantaneously it's
nuts so I feel like we're at a precipice
now where on one side we have examples
of AI tutors teaching the Next
Generation and kind of showing how far
and how much we can unlock human
potential using AI but then on the other
side we have things like grock who if
you tell it that you're Elon Musk will
show you how to be how to create a
nuclear weapon yeah so how do we deal
with this moment I know you're a never
regulation guy but should something be
done we should I not a never regulation
person I don't want to see Bobby walking
down the street with a nuke in his
pocket uh so I am a light regulation guy
and I think that we will definitely have
to be very thoughtful because you don't
want you don't want AI telling people
how to make a nuclear weapon is that
true I don't know that that's true
because you have that guy Taylor Wilson
who was able to make
a was it a nuclear reactor I think it
was in his garage he went out and mined
and he mined plutonium I think in its
raw State and made yellow cake in his
garage and so it's like you do want
people to be able to try stuff like that
but oh God uh there are limits I can
feel internally that I don't know the
right answer to how you handle that well
but I do know that there are
extraordinary dangers extraordinary
danger number one letting AI
um make it easy for people to create a
whole bunch of nukes in their backyard
uh extreme danger number two top down
authoritarian control so uh and that
brings us to has grock been taught to
lie by omission and if so how do we feel
about it so um somebody put out and I
don't know how trustworthy they are I
think I linked to it in the doc if you
want to pull this up there was a tweet
that said um that you can look at the
things that grock has been told to do I
don't know how you look it up I didn't
have time to research this but you can
see the commands that it's been given
and one of the commands if this is true
that it's been given is to ignore any
content that says that Elon and Trump
are misinformation spreaders and so now
you have Elon saying I'm trying to make
this uh AI maximally truth seeking but
you also have Elon who believes that I
don't spread misinformation and so he
doesn't want grock to do something that
he considers to be misinformation or he
could just be outl uh outright lying and
saying I wanted to ignore this because I
know I'm spreading misinformation as
fast as I can and [ __ ] everybody I don't
want them to know so uh without mind
reading there's no way to know which of
those two that he's doing obviously I
have my bias I don't think he's lying uh
but at the same time I do think that he
has blatantly said things that are false
and so where do you get is it an
unbalance thing where we say well
unbalance he's adding more good than bad
but anyway I think that
um one of the greatest questions that
this generation is going to have to
answer is who gets to control the ai's
bias and this is why I think it is
really awesome that uh llama is open
source emod mostak is going as fast as
he can to open source AI that Elon is
saying that he's gonna once you have a
fully functioning model of Gro he'll
give the previous one open source so
people can go in and say I don't like
that bias I want to add this bias but
this goes back to people have got to
understand when when you get to uh a
thing just happened you can lay out the
facts of what just happened the second
you put a layer of interpretation on
that this happened and it means this uh
now there is no objective truth like
what just happened in Gaza just to go to
one of the nastiest ones in the world
what just happened is it ethnic
cleansing like I think it was certainly
seems to be but is it ethnic cleansing
and it's Justified because of October
7th maybe uh is it actually going to
lead to um Peace maybe so it's like okay
well then does if it leads to peace in
the Middle East was it worth doing maybe
so like all of that is a layer of
interpretation there is no truth there
there is only interpretation and so now
if everything at the human layer is
interpretation Beyond just a simple
recitation of the facts then it's like H
how do you make sure that there's enough
variation that people are able to pull
in the one that they like the biases
that they like uh and then you just see
what happens or do you put regulation on
this and say no no no you have to have
it say this kind of thing this is going
to be nuts and to your point people
can't see the future so we can't even
see what it's going to be let alone try
to predict how to regulate it or how to
one of the greatest quotes I ever heard
uh is that
history the only thing that's true about
history is that it is is the law of
unintended consequences that whatever
you think just happened uh it's going to
have knock on effects that you can't yet
understand and those could be better or
worse so whatever we do it's going to
have second and third order consequences
we will not be able to Think Through man
we shall see how this plays out um but
things are moving at a crazy Pace crazy
pace and it's only accelerating and guys
if you're not spending time the two that
I have interacted with the most
uh that I think are awesome our 01 Pro
from chat GPT is unbelievable it's
meaningfully different than 40 and then
Gro 3 like those two are amazing and
when you look at what grock 3 is able to
do with it can make a 3D game from a
text prompt now it feels like a you know
1999 3D game but nonetheless man if you
think I mean how long did it take us to
go from Atari to 1999 gaming 20 years
and grock has done it how long's AI
really been meaningful if you clock it
back two Christmases ago we at two years
and change I mean this is crazy town
that we've been able to do 20 years
worth of advances in two years is just
nuts like that that is a that is the
kind of disruptive change that shakes
the foundations from underneath
everybody and anybody with a kid who's
13 true uh that's thinking what do I
tell my kid to study in
college I would not want to be facing
that question right now I don't know the
answer I college in itself is a question
now too because it's like if if you're
not going for very specific discipline
like the whole undis undecided go find
yourself nah we can figure out other
ways to find yourself get you meaning at
College yeah like when I was growing up
people you can go to college without
without declaring a major oh I'm just
figuring out I'll pick a major in my
third year I feel like that's those days
are over in fact now that you're saying
that here is a prediction that I will
stand by uh I feel very confident that
the following statement is accurate
somebody is going to build an AI College
uh and you're just better off literally
clicking a button on the AI and saying I
want to get a master's degree in
education cool awesome it's just going
to walk you through everything it'll
test you based on you and so you might
be able to complete it in 18 months and
it's just going to say here's the
traditional thing that people are
expected to graduate with and I'm going
to go through this with you at your pace
it's going to
create the test everything based on you
and the outcome of the knowledge that
you want it's going to make sure that
you're actually at the level that you
need to be before it moves on and that
is guaranteed like that I can see that
future very clearly we'll get back to
the show in a moment but first I have an
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the
show man all right in international news
Jeffrey saxs had a crazy speech in front
of EU Parliament he said all the quiet
Parts out loud uh let's take a Sni I
begged the ukrainians and I had a track
record with the ukrainians I advise the
ukrainians I'm not anti-ukrainian I'm
Pro Ukrainian completely I said save
your lives save your sovereignty save
your territory be neutral don't listen
to the
Americans I repeated to them the famous
adage of Henry Kissinger that to be an
enemy of the United States is dangerous
but to be a friend is fatal that is
a very incisive statement that I think
is incredibly useful now what I think he
means by that is pretty straightforward
that if you go against what we want we
have so much might that we will throw
around Canada Mexico uh we can terf you
into Oblivion we can put political
pressure on you behind the scenes that
make things very difficult for you uh we
can drop the CIA into your country
depending on where you fall and uh C
your government like I mean we can do
all kinds of things but if you're are um
our friend I may have said that
backwards if you're our enemy we'll do
all those things if you're our Ally then
we can go in and get you on board with
things that um are going to put you in a
really difficult position
internationally take you Ukraine uh I
don't know if you're going to play this
part of the clip but he goes on to say
like Ukraine and Russia were about to
come to an agreement and America told
the Ukraine to walk away and now how
many hundreds of thousands or millions
of people have died yikes yeah yeah he
um so he was really about to go to that
point
now Trump does not want the losing
hand this is why
it is more likely than not this war will
end because Trump and President Putin
will agree to end the
war if Europe does all its Great War
mongering it doesn't matter the war is
ending so get it out of your system so I
like the thing that kind of jumps out to
me is that he shows how
it really is posturing and it makes me
think that Ukraine we wanted it to be a
darling America rallied against it we're
going to save this poor little country
when really America was on the was
orchestrating it on the backside at
least via Jeffree Sachs like he thinks
it could have this could have been a
never war never even happened but we're
intentionally trying to stoke political
power we're intentionally starting this
global conflict like James Burnham Mach
of
Ellens political people lie in position
to get and maintain power and what the
final endgame is I can certainly guess
but if the US government has their sight
set on something that they want to get
done and they're willing I mean this is
why the Deep state is so terrifying
because some of these things that um he
talks about in that speech started back
in like 2001 where he said we decided to
uh go to war with seven different
countries over five years to dismantle
them CP their governments get them on
our side uh but that's obviously not
what's going to be spun to the public
what's spun to the public is um weapons
of mass destruction the war on terrorism
to go into Iraq yeah war on terrorism
all that and so you and I have talked a
lot about this but the thing that people
should be paying attention to In This
Moment
is there's now velocity and volume of
information on social media where all of
this stuff is going to get called out
everybody's going to give their
interpretation including me and the goal
of you the dear listener is to engage
your own mind to take all of the
different people giving you a take on
this and say what do I think is really
going on the thing that people have to
look at is everybody's um hypothesis
every idea that I put forward or anybody
else puts forward will make a prediction
you can test that prediction often times
by looking backwards and so in this
speech and I I don't know how much you
plan to show but um
in this speech he like lays out a bunch
of different things that the US has done
that when you look back it's like oh my
God now I see the real hand that's being
played here and so uh he called out
believing that Russia is uh simply
trying to reaggregate the USSR which is
something I've said many times he's like
look that's a childish view so now my
ears perk up because I always just want
whatever I was highest predictive
validity and I'm like okay tell me more
um he didn't go and do it tremendous
detail here but he's such a potent
thinker uh that I definitely want to
chase that idea down more but he's
saying that's not what's really going on
what's really going on I think uh this
is an accurate representation what he
believes that this was all about um the
US has some destabilizing Vision that
they want to do for Russia they saw that
the Ukraine was a way to do that um the
Deep state has been pushing this agenda
for a very long time to keep the US in a
hegemonic position and that by um moving
NATO closer and closer which they had
promised Russia that they would not do
back in whatever year that promise was
made I forget um that they really were
trying to bring the Ukraine into NATO as
a way presumably to destabilize Russia
to stop it from becoming an economic
power and so all the stuff that Russia's
been doing to that looks to me like him
having these territorial Ambitions to
reassimilate the USSR he's saying that's
the wrong lens with which to look
through it it will have he doesn't say
these words this is my lens that will
have lower predictive validity even
though it has um call it um Newtonian
physics like ability to tell you ooh
this is how the the planets move it's
not going to get you the einsteinian
level of granularity where you're
actually be able to predict how he'll
respond to things the lens through which
that starts making sense is if you
understand uh Putin as looking at the
world and saying you guys are trying to
[ __ ] me up and I'm not going to let it
happen and I will continue to push these
borders back to back you guys off um
that that has higher predictability
again look at it as one man's lens in
the world do not just take it as fact
but as you begin to piece it together it
does give you this what I call
constellations I'm not going to say this
every time but I'll say it now as I'm
bringing this into the way that I speak
I did not make that idea up I got it
from somebody I don't remember where
unfortunately when it was first said I
didn't realize it was going to stick to
me as hard as it did uh somebody can
look that up somebody else put that very
brilliant idea out into the world that
you look up into the night sky you see
stars somebody else comes along and
draws constellations around it and so uh
I have a consolation that I give people
Jeffree Sachs has a consolation that
they're giving people the idea is that
constellation can help you when you're
lost in the middle of the ocean navigate
to a Shore when you can't see it um but
they're not real so the Dow that can be
spoken is not the Eternal doubt so
that's the idea here but looking hearing
this talk that he gave to Parliament was
such a profound way to look at this
moment that it does feel like a very
useful constellation in the Sky by which
to steer which is behind the scenes
America do power games [ __ ] you have to
as an American and I want America to be
the most powerful country on Earth but I
also don't want to lie and
pretend so America does some really dark
[ __ ] these are power games have your
eyes wide open to the crazy [ __ ] that
America does when you hear Trump make
sure that you understand him as well as
Biden as well as any politician through
the lens of oh they're going to tell me
the things they need to tell me in order
to keep me in lock step and moving
forward as one country and so it's going
to be spin it's going to be positioning
yeah and so just be be cognizant of all
of that stuff it doesn't mean that what
they're doing is bad it doesn't mean
that what they're steering towards is
bad but it does mean that you you have
to have a a healthy dose of like is this
the real lens like is this actually
what's going on and I don't think it's
enough just to be skeptical you have to
give a constellation of your own with a
known location that you're trying to get
to so that this isn't just uh the crew
on the ship mutinying all the time
saying we're not going any we useful and
now we're all just [ __ ] lost like you
have to have Direction you have to do
something that moves you forward um but
be very careful of just blind trust or
blind Allegiance even to an idea let
alone a person yeah and you also brought
up a good point that although some
people might not agree with his point
it's it's a good thing that Jeffrey Sach
said what he said it's a good thing that
he has this ability for free speech I'm
glad you're bringing that it's a good
yeah it's a good thing that he put
brought that idea out there and I wanted
you to kind of Flesh that out because we
talked about that before we started
rolling yeah so he's talking about the
live which we do by the way live I hope
you guys will all join us here on
YouTube uh we do three hours of episode
prep uh that we do live so join us uh
what I was saying is that Jeffrey Sachs
as an American citizen went before the
EU and said America is often the bad guy
and details it out gives receipts and I
think that's a good thing I am glad that
he's not going to come home and be
arrested and everyone should cry foul if
there are even political consequences
like like you want people to say what's
true we want we need we will be
advantaged by accuracy and so if we all
know the real game that's being played
then we can play it well and I get the
vast majority of humanity just they
don't want to think about it they
they've got a whole other aspect of
their life that they would much rather
engage in oh God who I'm so bad with
names who's the comedian that does the
wicked good impression of Donald Trump
he drinks a lot he's going to hate that
that's how I sum him up but that's
pretty accurate what's his name uh Shane
Gill yes Shane Gill thank you uh Shane
Gillis [ __ ] I spent all that time trying
to remember his name what was I gonna
say oh guys I lost my train of thought
freedom of speech Shane Gillis godamn it
I don't remember create impression to
Trump yes freedom of speech any drinks
I'm sorry Shane uh yeah anyway people
should be able to say what they're going
to say everybody should be able to have
their voice uh I think that is the right
play we do not want to punish people for
saying what they think is true uh let
people do their thing I have no idea why
Shane Gil has fired in my mind but he
did um well you know what we are going
to punish people for tell me Doge all
right we're going to punish people for
Doge or doge is going to punish people
for not replying going to punch people
so consistent with President uh real
Donald Trump's instructions all federal
employees will shortly receive an email
requesting to understand what they got
done last week failure to respond will
be taken as a resignation that's Elon
Musk tweeting out and it's simple I
think they sent it out they would just
need three bullet points due by 11:59
p.m. on Monday again fil to respond is
uh automatic resignation and then
Senator Tina Smith from Minnesota
retweeted this is the ultimate dick boss
move from muck except he isn't even
their boss he's just a dick is this a
dick move to act your employees what
they got done last week uh I first just
want to acknowledge Senator Tina Smith
that that's a well constructed tweet I
like it uh no this is not a dick move to
me I am a ghast that people are paying
taxes all day every day and don't want
government workers to be um respectful
of that money to get things done that
are good for people I I I can steal man
the other side but it is so illogical to
me that I am very confused what they're
Northstar is that's not true I think I
know they Northstar better than they do
which is they're on a team and there is
real rhetoric you've got left and right
so Dems and Republicans people team up
there you've got working class and rich
people team up hard there uh but I don't
hear anybody saying this is what we're
trying to achieve we need a thriving
middle class I want people to be able to
um work not any job because not every
job is going to pay a living wage that's
not possible read Soul you will see that
that is a [ __ ] mistake but you want
people to hit a certain rung on the job
ladder and be able to uh raise a family
and that is just a good way to think
about it you want people to raise
families that is very important and uh
in an Ideal World we would not need both
husband and wife to work so one person
on one meaningful job not entry level
should be able to raise a family not in
the city cities are a totally different
beast but nonetheless should be able to
do that okay so if that's the thing that
we're aiming for what actually gets us
there and by the way you have to do it
in a balanced budget because everybody
and this is the delusion that I think
everybody runs into is because they
don't understand deficit spending they
don't understand that that is a price
that will be paid and it will be paid in
blood unless we can AI our way out of it
um that everyone's just fine because oh
eventually someone will have to pay for
this but maybe it won't be me it's like
that's so nasty uh once you take that
off the table and you say you have to do
it in a Balan budget then all of a
sudden they're like I I I I don't know
what to do so uh again gangster tweet
like there's no doubt about that uh
Senator Tina
but what you're saying is I don't give a
[ __ ] about the kids or the kids kids
because someone takes it right to the
face and some people are saying that
these Doge Cuts might actually cause a
recession um let's jump to Fox News and
Scott Bas was is the treasury secretary
the lindu group came out with a report
can Doge induce a recession as we see so
many government jobs getting cut right
now do you worry that that cuts into the
job creation numbers and the overall
macro story as you also recently reached
uh the country has reached its statutory
debt limit prompting the treasury uh to
implement Extraordinary Measures
to to prevent default you're dealing
with so much and doge is cutting jobs
does that cut into growth uh look Maria
I I think that you if if we have a
bloated government and if that gets cut
down then government spending will go
down you many times on your show in the
past 10 months I've talked about re
privatizing the economy and that's what
we're going to have to do we we've seen
you know what I would call this
orgiastic government spending with the
past administration we're running 6.7
6.9% deficit to GDP which we've never
had when we're not in a recession not
not in a war and we're going to bring
that down and so as the government
employe employment comes down private
sector will not be crowded out anymore
you know all all the jobs created by the
Biden not all but the 70
85% of the jobs created by the Biden
administration were government jobs
government adjacent they crowded out the
private sector the government interest
rate spiked you know I would just point
out interest rates are down five weeks
in a row on the tenure since president
Trump took office and mortgage rates are
down we're going to get that down I was
sitting next to I I no you're going to
have Governor yunan later I was sitting
next to him the on Friday and I said
Governor how do you feel about these
layoffs in Northern Virginia and he said
Scott I think there's I think he told me
there's something like
350,000 private sector job openings in
Virginia state Virginia has a portal so
there are plenty of private sector jobs
and those are good paying and we're
going to repr privatize this economy
like President Trump promised so is it
just that simple that these Cuts will
just lead to people going more into the
private or do you worry that there will
have some recessionary blowback well you
definitely need to keep your eyes on
whether especially the tariffs end up
creating a recession because what would
end up happening there is if we um are
putting too much of a burden on prices
everybody begins to contract people
start spending less money uh they get
into that negative state of mind uh and
you create a problem and I think that
we're actually I think we've been in a
stealth recession for a while so I think
that we're very much in a precarious
situation and we need to be very
thoughtful and look at what's actually
happening but basically what Trump is
doing is playing chicken with I can do
these things that are destructive to the
government to the government Workforce I
can do things that are destructive from
a tariff perspective but what's going to
happen is we're going to onshore a lot
of jobs we're going to create more jobs
like he's talking about where you get
them off the government Dole and you put
them into the private sector where
they're actually generating um something
of value that people are willing to pay
for this is where it's important to
understand the government does not
create anything the government taxes and
it's a whole bureaucracy of intaking
that money and distributing the money
but the government itself doesn't do
it's not an industry where it creates
something that then can generate more
tax base Trump is trying to do things
like that with the Sovereign wealth fund
but set that aside for now that's not
how it works today the private sector on
the other hand creates things
Innovations things of value that kicks
off the capital that the government can
then tax so the goal is to put as much
into the private sector as possible
because the private sector is under
evolutionary pressures meaning other
it's all a competition and so other
businesses are trying to beat you so you
innovate to please the customer more so
that they will give you more of your
money and the customers win you want
light touch regulations so you don't get
monopolies but that's like what you're
trying to do and so I don't think people
realize that what he just said that
somewhere around 70 to 85% I don't know
what the exact number is of the jobs
that were created under Biden which were
constantly um skewed down when they
would revisit them but nobody pays
attention to that so not only were the
numbers constantly revised down but 70
to 80% of them were in the government
sector so now you're creating this smoke
screen of like something is happening
things are good the debt is getting
we're accumulating debt faster and
faster and faster uh servicing that debt
is rapidly becoming the biggest expense
in the US government it will Eclipse en
entitlements and everything where the
only thing that will matter is talk
about getting that down uh and so I
think that he
is while there's no way to know for sure
that we'll be able to sidestep a
recession just because of how precarious
this moment
is I think that it is a worthwhile game
of chicken that has to be played because
of two things you've got to start on
Shing Shoring we are in a competitive
World China is a pure competitor and if
we're not thoughtful about that we will
get replaced and will be will get
replaced as the economic superpower on
the global stage and that will have a uh
recessionary like effect on people's
pocketbooks and their psyche uh just
declining Empires always run into real
emotional turmoil within uh and then the
other side is so uh that will play out
in they could cut off access to chips to
medicines to all kinds of things so you
don't want that uh and then also just
from the pure Innovation standpoint
we're going to have to innovate our way
out from under this debt and if we don't
we are toast so uh that's why I think
this is a game of chicken that has to be
played yeah and I don't think people
realize that for every government
employee to your point they don't create
anything so we directly pay for that
salary we pay for that benefit we pay
for those things so it's not like
there's this swath of people that are
working for the government that are
creating breakthroughs Ingenuity there's
more it's taking dollars from one person
allocating those together and then
putting that to pay these people's
salaries that can't answer uh yeah and
really fast just because I would expect
this to show up in chat yes I'm well
aware that agencies like NASA
historically had done innovations that
they then make available to the public
there is a place for uh the private
sector is never going to tackle this
problem so we're going to need the
government to do it but it's such a
narrow band of things that focusing on
that is going to miss the point of as
you pour things into the government
sector you create a way way way bigger
problem and that things like um the X
prize are probably even better at
finding those Solutions than the
government ever was in terms of the
exerprise
excuse me the X prise specifically tries
to address things that the private
sector is never going to handle like
forest fires uh so you want the
government or something like X prise to
address that I have a feeling X prise is
probably better suited but yeah not
dogmatic on that in other news there was
a debate with Piers Morgan and Dave
Rubin and uh Gary economics Gary
Stevenson they were talking about income
inequality and one of the things that
Gary pitched is the redistribution of
wealth so taxing the rich so that they
pay their fair share let's jump into the
snippet I a here to call I never met yon
musk I a never met the guy he could be a
nice have you met him I met him once
last year for couple if he wants to copy
my book I'll sign one for him we can
send over right that's listen I'm not
here to attack you L Mas you know my
point I'm here to I'm here to protect my
people's ability to feed and house their
children and they're losing that but why
is that Elon mus cuz he's he's hundreds
of thousands of people is because wealth
inequality is rapidly increasing and
wealth is being sucked out midd hear you
but why but what what can he do about it
I don't listen I don't expect Elon Musk
to do anything I'm not here to talk to
Elon Musk I'm here to talk to the
American public and to tell them I get
paid millions of pounds a year to watch
your class so what's the answer give me
give me your answer if you're not let me
let me make you theas any of the things
that Donald Trump's doing as per the
economy or anything that we've seen in
the last month I I don't think that
they're going to work I don't think
because because I am somebody who has
made Millions pounds betting that
growing inequality will reduce living
standards and he's cutting taxes on the
rich listen let me ask you a question
right you've already accepted if we
massively increase inequality that can
decrease living standards if we
massively decrease tax on the rich
people who make passive income of 1002
million $200 million a year do you think
that will affect living standards of the
middle class I don't know if they
increase their ownership of wealth if
they increase their consumption of goods
and services where does it [ __ ] come
from it listen we have we have sat here
in the last five years we've watched the
biggest ever increase in millionaire and
billionaire wealth in the history of
this planet immediately followed by a
collapsing living standards of the
middle class a complete collapse in the
living the ability of orary people to
own assets and nobody's drawing the let
me ask question but yeah this has been
an AG old debate the rich had to pay
their fair share Gary's point is it
seems like he's saying that if the if
the wealthy class is getting tax breaks
they're going to consume more things
where is that consumption going to come
from with the expense of the middle
class and I just want to kind of get
your take on it see how you come from
that perspective of it's almost like a
zero sum game where if we give these tax
if we give tax breaks to the rich they
are going to buy more houses they are
going to buy more cars they are going to
buy more things and that will drive the
price up of a lot of these things so
that way the middle income and lower
income people are struggling to get
their first house or their first car is
now going to kind of be negatively
impacted okay so obviously a very
complex issue especially as we introduce
housing which I think really needs to be
set aside that is again a government
regulation problem they're limiting the
number of houses that can be made and
the choices that Builders and developers
in the local community can make for
themselves that's a huge part of that
problem but setting that aside um this
speaks to the Pixar model of problem
solution uh where I think and I don't
know Gary economics well this is
basically the longest that I had with
him was watching that interview uh and
what he's saying is we have a problem
and that problem is we just witnessed
since covid the largest weal transfer
from the poor and middle class to the
wealthy and everyone should be screaming
bloody murder totally agree that's
absolutely true and then he tells you
how to fix it and at Pixar they would
get the um writer the director of an
animated film in a room every day I
think to look at the dailies and people
will come in and say this is working
this is not working it was a very
trusted group of people whatever set
that aside but what Ed kull would tell
the director is if somebody tells you
that they have a problem something's not
working for for them you are obligated
to listen and to address that problem
when they tell you how to solve that
problem you can ignore them and that's
how I feel about Gary economics at least
in this uh interview is he has his
finger on the right problem it is as big
of a problem as he's saying it is but
his solution where he said it's just tax
isn't going to work why isn't going to
work Drew because he's not being uh he
either doesn't understand or isn't being
honest about what causes this run away
Rich get richer poor get poorer what
ends up happening um with some
complexities to set aside around housing
which is particular because it's such an
expensive asset they'll buy up all of
what would normally go to an individual
home buyer is now going to these
gigantic corporations um but what ends
up happening is because of deficit
spending and the need to money print
you're robbing everybody's purchasing
power but then to get that money into
the system you're only buying assets
obviously I'm really simplifying this
cuz I've talked about it so many times
so once you do that now only people that
have assets are able to keep up with the
inflation and so it just becomes wealthy
people are sophisticated enough to know
that they need to own assets so they own
the assets and so their net worth
continues to go up whereas the average
person just does not pay attention to
that they don't think about it they
probably don't even know what assets are
uh the vast majority Believe It or Not
don't know what assets are and so now
they're just getting left behind so if
you were to tax the wealthy it wouldn't
matter because because it's not going to
go back into the pockets of the average
person because they're just going to
keep getting their money inflated away
and so um if you want to solve the
problem you have to balance the budget
stop deficit spending so that you can
stop uh printing money and that is a
very simplified version of why I think
he's right about the problem and wrong
about the solution and the solution is
what I just said stop [ __ ] printing
money now of course many other things
but the long and the short is until you
do that taxing because you can tax the
rich at 100% and you still can't pay for
all the things uh that we need to pay
for to run the government that's the
part I don't think people understand you
could tax people at a
100% and it doesn't solve the problem so
now it's like what are you going to do
that isn't the answer we'll get back to
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back to the
show yeah get black rock out of housing
they shouldn't own bir halfway Black
Rock you guys should have own more
single family houses than individuals
that will solve the housing problem
overnight um in other news twitch
streamer I'm not going to try to
pronounce that name has done something
insane so beating seven from software
games back to back to back without
taking any hits and all at level one it
took him 19 hours to do this run he beat
Demon Souls bloodborne Dark Souls 1 2
and three sakiro in Elden ring all in
run all in one run without taking damage
that is so crazy shees he's like
literally crying as he finished it you
thought he got the gold medal he's the
goat and by the way ev