This Is How Empires Collapse: Dalio Warns of Depression, Trump Escalates Deportations | Tom Bilyeu
HBfikodgg_w • 2025-04-16
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Kind: captions Language: en Trump wants to liberate Americans by sending US citizens to jail in El Salvador. He also declares victory in the Kilmar Garcia deportation case. While the Supreme Court is like, "Hey, that's not what we meant." Ray Dallio is worried about something worse than a recession. RFK says the HHS will identify the cause of autism by the fall. Harvard University sparks debate with a clapback against Trump defunding them. And Drew and I debate the ethics of AI sex bots. Drew, WWE plus politics. This is real life, man. This is bananas. At this point, every time somebody comes to the White House, it's just an interesting story. Like, nobody just comes, shakes his hand, and leaves. It's always headline, headline, spicy tape. I love that they're doing all of this in public. I love it so much. This is amazing. I have a feeling that when this changes and we don't have Trump as a president that uh it's not going to be like this anymore. So, I am savoring getting to see how his mind works. For better or worse, I want to see this man. Like, we are really seeing the personality of the people running this country. Sometimes I'm excited and other times I'm mortified. Uh, but being able to see it is, I think, a huge win for the public. We'll see how it all pans out. Before we jump into the his meeting with Puklli in the White House, Ray Dio kind of set a stark turn about what's happening in the economy right now. Everybody's talking about tariffs. People are talking about rising costs, but he warns about something far more greater than just like a regular recession when he was with Meet the Press over the weekend. I think that um right now we are at a decision making point and very close to a recession and I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well. A recession is two negative quarters of GDP and whether it goes slightly there, we always have those things. We have something that's much more profound. We have a breaking down of the monetary order. We are going to change the monetary order because we cannot spend the amounts of money. So we have that problem. And when we talk about the dollar and we talk about tariffs, we have that. We are having a profound changes in our domestic order, how ruling is existing and we're having profound changes in the world order. Such times are very much like the 1930s. I've studied history and this repeats over and over again. Here's how you have to understand Ray Dalio. Ray Dalio right now is banging on the desk. He's screaming at the top of his lungs. His vocal cords are tearing. He just always displays it like this, but he is really trying to get people to hear what he's saying. Now, the part that he's not saying is when he's talking about the 1930s, he's talking very specifically about Europe. He's talking very specifically about the rise of Hitler. Rey is really trying to get people to understand that there's a big debt cycle and when that big debt cycle loops around people you get populism because there ends up being this massive spread between the wealthy and the poor and it creates all this unrest and the people who feel that they're being um treated poorly in that moment. They long for a strong man that will come kick the [ __ ] out of people uh and make life better for them. And historically when people make that promise they're not the best of people. It can break bad. I will just say that. And so I don't think that Rey is saying, "Hey, this is inevitable." He's certainly not saying that Trump is Hitler. He's just saying these things come together into a situation where debt creates a completely unsustainable reality. You have to do something. The something that you do, and by the way, because I have been checked by people because I don't always take time to explain why debt creates this situation. I'll give a very small nutshell. if you think more is needed, I'll go deeper. Uh when you get debt like that, the only way to sustain those debts is to deficit spend. And so you end up inflating the money supply. It's actually the inflation of the money supply that drives asset prices way up, which is exactly how you get that um growth of inequality between the rich and the poor. And we're seeing that play out right now, but it is tied to debt, which is something that Rey is very careful to explain. every uh empire in history that has ever made its way to being the world's reserve currency falls prey to printing money and all of them have devalued their currency like to 99%. So even the UK which hey is still great country love them to death but they used to be like number one and now they are way lower on the totem pole and literally the sterling lost over I think 99% of its value in the last 120 years or whatever. So this is not a like, oh, no big deal. Like this is exactly how, as he says in his new book, countries go broke. So he again, he has a demeanor that's very subdued, but this is him banging on the table, slapping it, trying to get people to pay attention to say the cycle is knowable. And if we are not very careful, this doesn't end in a recession. This ends in either a global depression or outright kinetic war. We joked around about it on the live that, you know, sometimes when you're hung over, you take that last shot and it kind of puts you over the edge or is this like is there any way to kind of get off of this trail or is it just kind of uh inevitability that it's going to end in one of those two things? It's so close to an inevitability that it is far there's far more predictive validity to go ooh we're in a tractor beam and it is pulling us towards overinflating our currency finally hitting the breaking point the rest of the world moving away from our currency and so I think and now I am prognosticating a little bit but I think that Rey would say okay you the world order is going to be disrupted and if this isn't handled well this continues to escalate and become a bigger problem. Or if it's handled well, and he's very ky about what handling it well looks like. He'll say things like, "You have to delever." He calls it the 3% promise. You've got to get your debt to GDP ratio where your uh debt or the servicing of your debt is only 3% of GDP. And he's right. But the way that you do that he doesn't often comment on which is exactly what we need is okay Rey and other people like him who are um they are economists in practice meaning that Rey has made more money than anybody else by looking at the world and saying this is how things are going to change this is how uh global economies are interwoven and given the way that the debt cycle works and a whole bunch of other factors this is what I think is going to happen and he's bet on it for the last 50 years and been more right than anybody else. Uh people will be quick to point out that in the last 10 years his um returns have been soft, but I think it's because he knows something's coming and he's just trying to hedge his bets and not hit a terminal event where he's so like out over his skis that when something bad happens that he gets caught off guard because figuring out the timing precisely is next to impossible. Um so that's that situation. You know, going back to your analogy, uh, it really is like that, but it's the idea that it's not the one shot that causes the problem. It's all of the partying and all of the psychological things that made you want to go to the club, to impress the ladies, to try to get laid, to flex and make it look like you have access to resources. um that whole thing, the algorithms running in the human mind that pulls us all together around alcohol and dancing and flirtation and all of that. There's a similar thing going on from an economic standpoint, which is a country becomes the dominant country for whatever reason after World War II. We were the dominant country because uh there was very little kinetic warfare in our country. We did in Pearl Harbor, but beyond that, nothing else. Um, so we were able to spin up our manufacturing, which hopefully has echoes now as to why people are certainly why I'm banging the drum about the need to have manufacturing capabilities, certainly as it applies to energy technology warfare. Uh, just absolute musthaves. Um, and because we were able to spin up our manufacturing, basically the whole world owed us a whole bunch of money. And so at the end of World War II, we hadn't taken the damage that everybody else had. We came into the war really late so we hadn't even lost as many people as some of the other major players have per capita and um we were in a tremendous financial situation. So we could establish the Pax Americana world order where it was like the US dollar is going to be the world reserve currency that's going to give us um a ton of leverage financially to be able to go into debt. And in the beginning you think hey just going to have one cocktail it's going to be fine maybe two Drew maybe two. And then you start having such a good time. Literally, you're you're having a great time and you realize, hey, when we print a little bit of money, have another shot, there's no problem. And you have another shot, there's no problem. And what you unfortunately don't find out until it's much too late, even if you manage your buzz such that you're still able to walk around, you're still able to engage, you're not blackout drunk, but your body just can't process that much debt, that much alcohol. And so eventually you vomit. And that's when you've you've just pushed things too far. And there is a consequence to be paid. And so we're in that moment now where we know we've had a lot to drink and now the question becomes, is there something? Can we drink a lot of water? Like what do we do to try Exactly. to try to undo this stuff? And the undoing it when you've accumulated this much debt is extremely difficult. And I think all of us have had those experiences where it's like, "Oh, I actually got off easy and for some reason I feel fine the next day. I played things just right. I slowed down early enough. I waited to go to bed. Like, we're trying to find the economic equivalence of those and now I will not make any attempt to speak for Ry. And I will just say I look over at Trump and I just see more shots going down and I'm like, oof, this is where um we're now not talking about money printing. So, object out of the uh out of the analogy and into the reality. And it's just there's so much uncertainty being created right now. It may work out, but it might not. and it just may end up in disaster. So I have and can articulate what if he's doing it in XYZ way, it could play out this way and it could end up being fine. But it's such a high-risk game that's being played right now that people really do need to wake up to the amplitude of the potential consequences here so that we are now doing everything we can. reduce our debt, slow down, like get some um get as much certainty in the economy as you can while understanding you absolutely must alter the world order because the way that it's going now is because of the debt is driving you directly into Thusidity's trap where the US and China are going to collide first economically. We're literally already in it. Remember Ry has these six stages of this And he's been saying now for like two years that we're midway through part five. And it's like just each part of that cycle keeps revealing itself that first the warfare will be um political, then the warfare will become economic and then if you can't solve it at that point, the warfare becomes kinetic. And so we need to snap out of it. Be very cleareyed about where we're at in the cycle and what we need to do to deescalate this. And the easiest one is you've got to stop deficit spending. You've got to stop printing money. And right now, given the way that things are ratcheting up, that's the only solution I see on the horizon. And you'll hear Bessant talk about, hey, we've got options, which is basically that if we see liquidity drying up in the bond market, treasuries will go in uh and we'll start um manufacturing liquidity. And so the Fed's saying we don't need to do it yet. We're nowhere near there. Um, Besson is saying, "Don't need to do it yet. We're nowhere near there." Uh, how much of that's PR and how much of that's real, it it's on the table as an item to discuss, which should scare the life out of everybody. On the other side though, to be fair, the Republicans new budget bill that includes tax cuts and increase in military spending that doesn't help the deficit and our debt problem the wrong way. if if they are not able to make good on tariffs generating revenue, uh the gold card generating revenue, um and then Doge being able to deliver enough savings that like the military increase is accounted for and the decrease in some of the other stuff. Um because I think the military budget's only going up like 15%. I that that number is approximate, but I think 150 billion roughly correct to 850. Now it's going to hit a trillion. Yeah. So, um it's not inconceivable that we could find savings that would match that, but you'd certainly rather see them both going in the same direction. But the reality is with the absolute need to onshore some critical manufacturing and be prepared from a military standpoint because right now you're getting China's outproducing you on on ships is always one I go to because it's one that I um have looked at. But they're they're outproducing. It's it's something like 20 to one. It's not a little thing. It's a very massive difference. And given the historical importance of um controlling the seas, that's not a small thing for China to be ramping up like that. Yeah, we'll see how the things play out. I think that there's a lot of turmoil happening in the world. And we're back into the White House where yesterday uh President Buell of El Salvador came to visit Donald Trump. They talked about the pending case with Kilmar Garcia as well as Trump might use El Salvador to host more American prisoners. Is that like a weird thing for you before I play that clip? Like American prisoners getting kind of exported for their punishment? It is. It It definitely This I'm now in emotion. It does not hit me. Well, this sounds like Australia prison colonies. Nothing about that just at an emotional level feels right. The idea though that you have to get the criminals off your streets that I like that a lot. I think that that is absolutely true. I think that um what B Kelly has done in El Salvador proves if there's a known um contingent of people creating the problem. It's usually young uh aggressive disaffected young men. Um, and if you round up the most aggressive um, people as evidenced by criminality, association with gangs, um, you're going to be headed in the right direction, right? And B Kelly has done some pretty amazing things. Uh, in fact, we have somebody here that, um, I want to give his two cents in a second. But um nonetheless, this is a dangerous game that has to be done well. And the more I read about the founders of America, it they really understood like this is a system that's like this constant give and take push and pull. You've got three branches of government. They're not all equal though, which is interesting. I thought they were always meant to be equal. They are not meant to be equal. judiciary, at least according to Alexander Hamilton, was always meant to be the weakest of the three branches, which we're gonna talk about because Trump is certainly treating them like the weakest, maybe a bit too much. Um, and so understanding that all of this stuff is a delicate dance, there's no solutions, there's only trade-offs, all that stuff comes into play and this stuff gets very, very messy very quickly. But I think that Trump constitutionally just does not have any of those breaks. like there's no um there's no sense of the nuance. There's blunt force trauma. Okay. I I kind of want to go through like a breakdown of the timeline for this Kilmar Garcia before we play the reactions and what the explosion in the White House. As we were kind of doing our research leading up to the show, we were reading two different articles, got two different responses. So, we wanted to kind of level set and kind of lay out a timeline. So, as it's stated right now, Kilmar Garcia came into the US illegally when he was a teenager. He's been here over a decade longer than that. He stays with his wife who is a US citizen in Maryland. In 2019, he was arrested and he was then brought into an immigration court. That immigration court suh deemed him a member, one that he's illegal, he has no right to be here, and that he was a member of MS-13. After that, they sent it to another court um another immigration court who put a hold on the deportation because they were worried that if they did export him to El Salvador, he will be killed because of his criminal his gang affiliations and that there was a rival gang called the 18th Street Gang that is precisely who was going to go after him. Yeah. Since then, the 18th Street Gang has been disbanded. Um, so now with Trump and their mass deportations that happened a few weeks ago, he was one of the people brought up into that and they're anchoring on the 2019 case to say that they deemed him illegal in MS-13. Now that MS-13 is an official terrorist organization, there's no more protections for him. He can now get expelled um from the company from the country. So, with that as a timeline, you're going to hear a bunch of back and forth between both what happened in the White House and then we have a CNN lawyer commentator who gave us what the Supreme Court interpretation actually meant. And then we can kind of have our reactions after those. This this is um one thing, one more thing just to put in people's minds. What you're going to see is um two different sides claiming victory. So, people that want and this was a 90 Supreme Court decision. So, they unanimously said something and the Trump administration is saying they unanimously said we were right and that the federal district court judge had no ability to tell us how to run foreign um policy. And then the other side is saying, "What are you talking about? this was 900 that you absolutely need to bring this person back into the country and you've got to now run the process um the way that you would run the process on anybody that wasn't erroneously deported, which is how they're saying that the Supreme Court decision played out. Okay, with that all in mind, now we're going to do our best to give you guys both sides of this. Wait a minute. Can you just also respond to that question because you know it's asked by CNN and they always ask it with a slant uh because they're totally slanted because they don't know what's happening. That's why nobody's watching them. But would you answer that question also? Yes, gladly. So, as Pam mentioned, there's an illegal alien from El Salvador. So, with respect to you, he's a citizen of El Salvador. So, it's very arrogant even for American media to suggest that we would even tell El Salvador how to handle their own citizens as a starting point as two immigration courts found that he was a member of MS-13. When President Trump declared MS-13 to be a foreign terrorist organization, that meant that he was no longer eligible under federal law, which I'm sure you know, you're very familiar with the INA, that he was no longer eligible for any form of immigration relief in the United States. So, he had a deportation order that was valid, which meant that under our law, he's not even allowed to be present in the United States and had to be returned because of the foreign terrorist designation. This issue was then by a district court judge completely inverted and a district court judge tried to tell the administration that they had to kidnap a citizen of El Salvador and fly him back here. That issue was raised to the Supreme Court and the Supreme Court said the district court order was unlawful and its main components were reversed 90 unanimously stating clearly that neither secretary of state nor the president could be compelled by anybody to forcibly retrieve a citizen of El Salvador from El Salvador who again is a member of MS-13 which is I'm sure you understand rapes little girls, murders women, murders children, is engaged in the most barbaric activities in the world. And I can promise you if he was your neighbor, you would move right away. Uh, one thing that I'm always trying to remind myself is I'm being spun at all times. And that even whether I want to or not, I'm spinning people because I have a worldview and I have a frame of reference and everything I say is going to adhere to the frame of reference that I have. And we're all doing it all the time. Now, I think some people, certainly in the political arena, are doing it in a more aggressive, possibly, this won't always be true, but possibly nefarious way. They want you to see something in a certain way that allows them to either get power or maintain power. And so, people are always going to position you, spin you, try to get you to see things through their lens. And by controlling the frame, you can control the debate. And so, what we're witnessing in this specific case is the clash of two frames. So, the first thing I did was go look up how what is the Supreme Court saying about this because they were the ones that ruled 900 on something. And so, what are they saying? We'll get to that in a second. But, um, here is Is there more that you want to play here or do you want to go to the legal analysis? I thought you were setting that up, but we could play more here. Yeah. No, no, no. If there's more here, hit this. Supreme Court Steve, was it nine to nothing? Yes, it was a 90 in our favor. in our favor against the district court ruling, saying that no district court has the power to compel the foreign policy function of the United States. As Pam said, the ruling solely stated that if this individual at El Salvador's sole discretion was sent back to our country that we could deport him a second time. Well, no version of this legally ends up with him ever living here because he is a citizen of El Salvador. That is the president of El Salvador. Your questions about it per the court can only be directed to him. It is my understanding that that's not quite what it said. Again, what it said was um that the Trump administration must facilitate the return of this person. Now, the implication is that if El Salvador and they're they're actually quite careful. I don't know if it's in the clip that we have here, but um I think it was Trump that ends up saying like, "Yeah, we would supply an airplane or whatever to bring him back." And I remember when I first heard that and hadn't heard the distinction around the word facilitate yet, I was like, why would he supply the plane if El Salvador was sending him back? He clearly doesn't want because he has to to adhere to what the Supreme Court ruling says. So, the question ends up becoming why did the Supreme Court give him the wiggle room that they gave him? Uh, and when the Supreme Court speaks out, it's not all nine judges. Now, do I read anything into that? Was it just the other ones were too busy? I I don't know what to make of that. Um, but it is you are being spun. We'll get back to the show in just a moment, but first, here is a tax strategy most people miss while rushing to file by April 15th. Most people only focus on filing, missing the chance to contribute thousands of dollars to their IRA. This is where iTrust Capital can really change the game. 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Um yeah, chief legal correspondent, President Trump and President Ble made it clear that Abrago Garcia will not be returned to the United States despite this US Supreme Court ruling saying that Trump had to facilitate his return. So, are they just ignoring a US Supreme Court ruling or is the fact that the ruling was so mushy in your words? Yes. Giving him an an opening. It's a technical term I learned in law school, Jake. U mushy. Look, they're working within the ambiguity that the Supreme Court justices gave them. They did not order the administration to return him to the United States. They said that they need to facilitate this return. They could have said, "We order him returned." But they didn't do that. So, you heard the attorney general. She was being very careful in the Oval Office when she was asked, you know, would you help? She says, of course, we'd provide a plane, right? Thereby facilitating whatever El Salvador is doing. The Supreme Court appeared to defer to the executive branch given that this is an international matter. And you see, yes, it does look a little bit like a semantic game, but they are playing within the bounds of what the Supreme Court ruled. So, no, they are not defying this order. And take a listen to how White House Deputy Chief of Staff Steven Miller views it. and a district court judge tried to tell the administration that they had to kidnap a citizen of El Salvador and fly him back here. That issue was raised with the Supreme Court. And the Supreme Court said the district court order was unlawful and its main components were reversed 90 unanimously, stating clearly that neither secretary of state nor the president could be compelled by anybody to forcibly retrieve a citizen of El Salvador. Stephen, you got the win. I don't know. I don't know why he had to go so far because what he's saying is not completely accurate. Talk to the All right. So, the district court said that the administration needed to facilitate and effectuate the return of this man to the United States and gave a date. The Supreme Court says yes, you need to facilitate this. But when it comes to effectuating making it happen, they said this needs to go back down to the lower court. They need to clarify what that meant. and they warned the lower court, you need to be differential to the executive branch because we're talking about foreign affairs. And they gave no deadline. So again, they're not running a foul, but Steven's uh summary of the case there, the the holding, it's not exactly accurate. Okay. Um so after hearing all that, I was like, "All right, I want to know what the Supreme Court is saying on this." The Supreme Court has addressed a matter concerning Kilmar Abbrego Garcia on April 10th, 2025. The court unanimously ruled that the Trump administration must facilitate in quotes his release from custody in El Salvador and ensure that his case is handled as it would have been handled had he not been improperly deported. The court acknowledged that Abrego Garcia's removal was illegal and emphasized the government's obligation to rectify the situation. Uh, and then it goes on, uh, Justice Sonia, Justice Sonia Sadame, joined by Justices Elellanena Kagan and Kenti Brown Jackson, expressed concern over the administration's position, warning that it could set a dangerous precedent allowing the government to deport individuals without legal consequences, so long as it does so before a court can intervene. So, it is um it's very interesting to me that they allowed for this squishy interpretation that they are sending it back down uh to the um district court judge to clarify what they mean by facilitate. Um, this is one [Music] where I really want to better understand if the Supreme Court is doing leaving the room for interpretation because they don't want to step on um the executive branch's ability to run foreign policy. Is this um is this something else? I I am very surprised given that what the Supreme Court is supposed to do is say this is either constitutional or unconstitutional that they didn't give like a very clear line in the sand that not only would their ruling be clear, but that if there justices are going to come out and talk about this that they would just reiterate exactly this is a line in the sand. This is exactly what has to be done according to the constitution. Uh, and so I'm going to guess over time I will learn that this is the way that this game is played. that they are allowing for the executive branch to remain in control and that when they are unclear, their job is to not be quote unquote activists and to just say, "Look, this is the Constitution doesn't have anything very clear." And so, we're going back on the um foreign policy is meant to be handled by the executive branch and therefore we see that out. We're going to let it remain in his court and not be constantly trying to override him. That's my gut instinct, but we'll see how this plays out over time. Because the legal system is a precedence game, it definitely raises a red flag for me because what happened and we can interchange labels, but what happened was a population of people that were in the United States were rounded up and sent away. And in yes, when when you add the moniker of illegal and a couple people lean back in their chair, say, "Okay, that makes sense to me." But I'm I'm nervous. I my 1984 book uh report is starting to jump up where I'm starting to realize if you change that moniker from illegal alien to domestic terrorist to dissident to insurgent and if those words keep changing it could then start to hit actual US citizens and that's I think is a is a bigger red line. Well, here's the bad news. He literally talks about US citizens in the meeting with Bkelli when asked like would you send an American citizen to jail in El Salvador? His answer is yes. Now he's saying if they are ultraviolent one of like the examples he gives if you rape a 78-year-old woman or you beat an old woman in the back of the head with a baseball bat. Um those are the kind of people that I would send. So, he's not saying like shoplifterss and stuff, but it is um it is all too easy for it to keep moving in that direction. For sure. Definitely. Now, I know that we're talking about this at the policy level. We wanted to kind of take another look at it from like a more empathetic on the ground level. So, we have our boy G in the building today. Um and G, I know your family is from El Salvador, right? Correct. So, from your perspective, has how has this been? Um, I know during the election cycle when my family's Haitian, so when we were eating dogs and cats, it was hilarious and funny, but also traumatizing and like weird. So, I feel like El Salvador citizens are having that moment right now. So, just from your perspective, what has this like last couple weeks looked like for you? For sure. Uh, I mean, this is a very interesting time for the country in general. Um, obviously we went from being one of the most dangerous countries on the Western Hemisphere to now being the safest, deemed the safest. Uh, and that's something we take pride in. I get to go visit my family specifically because of what B Kelly did. Because of what Boulli has done in terms of rounding out all the criminals, uh, making just the streets safe again from an education standpoint, from a health standpoint, bringing back social security programs, things like this that ultimately help the working class. All these things have been great. um this particular situation with uh this case in Maryland is a bit sad uh from my perspective only because I know that that specific generation is part of the generation that necessarily didn't have a chance to you know have a future in El Salvador. were part of the class that was always trying to escape the gang life itself, right? And in many ways, a lot of not a lot, but a small percentage of the people that are in jail right now had to essentially affiliate to the gangs in order to save themselves or their families, right? Mhm. And so these are parts of these different cases that are now surging that we're kind of forgetting that they at some point were also just they were in the victim the the victim chair, you know, and to this day what he's been working he's been in the this particular guy he's been in the states for what 17 18 years 20 years and assuming he's made a pretty good life of himself. Um that it's something to think about that it's not always as black and white as you seems. You know he's not completely a terrorist, right? maybe he had to do these things to again to protect his family, but that also involved him having to leave the country to fight for his better, you know, a better life for himself and his family. So, these are just things to be that need to be taken into account when evaluating the cases that I don't think necessarily are right now. Um, so you know, while I am happy that I can go back and visit my that my parents cannot retire there and that, you know, that kids can go on the street, be out in the street through midnight, that moms and dads can go and work wherever they want, different parts of the country knowing that they're going to make it back. There there is that small fraction of people that are suffering the consequences of something that they didn't really have control over. So, you know, it's it's it's uh it's a tough situation to be in for sure. Yeah. And I thank you, by the way. really appreciate you talking about that. So, obviously here at a company like this where we do media and we're talking about all these things. Um, we certainly encourage everybody here in the company to if you've got something to say, say it because I want to know, is there a better way for me to think? And so as we were talking about this before we started rolling, G uh had said, you know, that um it is priceless seeing the change happen in El Salvador and uh at the same time it is scary to start hearing your country's name thrown around like this. Uh people getting snatched off the streets, maybe they're the right person to grab, maybe they're not. Uh and then for me it triggers that there's no solutions, there's only trade-offs. And so it's interesting the way B Kelly talks about this that uh this is him saying it. I don't think of myself as having imprisoned thousands of people. I see myself as having liberated millions of people. And so Trump was then you know grabbing onto that line and oh I love that I'm going to use that. And he isn't wrong, but it's like, man, do you you you want to create a lifeline so that there is a way to figure out did we get somebody wrong. Um, I'm not saying stop the momentum. I'm not saying don't do it. But I am saying again, not to overquote Alexander Hamilton, but Alexander Hamilton, the most quoted person by the Supreme Court, by the way, has been quoted over 300 times. uh sorry, 291 times as of 2000. So I imagine it's over 300 by now. And um he was the one that pushed for pardons for the president to be able to give pardons because he said in a moment where um the necessary this is a paraphrase but the necessary force with which the um legal system must act if it doesn't have that kind of relief valve then it just becomes too draconian. And that's the thing that I want to see showing up here in a way that it's not is right now this feels like team ball and the other side wants to dunk on Trump and say see like this is all wrong like you're getting the wrong people and Trump wants to be like well we're perfect we haven't gotten anybody and so I want that energy of we'll make mistakes but we'll correct them quickly and look maybe legitimately this guy isn't a mistake and maybe people that look closely at this are like he really is MS-13 Um, nonetheless, the energy that I would love to hear coming off of We the People is there needs to be some path to review that if we catch the wrong person, um, that we look at it and we say, "Cool." Now, if they're saying, "We've looked at this guy. We love that there is a review path. He's been reviewed and and we stand by it." Okay. But the energy is more just like, "You're [ __ ] dumb. You don't understand uh how this procedure works. And if you don't believe me that that's the energy, watch uh Steven Miller talking to the press. Uh now admittedly called them out. They didn't they don't understand the law. U but the thing that if I'm going to be charitable from their perspective is yeah, but you're acting like a dick. And it's like right now in this moment, we need to know that um if we've got people here in the country that are getting caught up in this, again, maybe this isn't the guy, but if we've got somebody that's erroneously gotten caught up in this that you guys are going to pump the brakes, look at that, and come up with some sort of resolution. Yeah, we we'll see. This is still actively happening. We'll see if they book a deal or something, but as of right now, Kumar Garcia will be remaining in the El Salvadorian prison. Uh, thank you G. Appreciate you, man. Yeah, no doubt. For sure. No, no doubt. Thank you. In other news, RFK has made an announcement that he'll figure out what caused the rise in autism by September. Um, let's go to the clip that he had with Fox News. The studies that they did were very, very narrow and there were about 17 studies. The Institute of Medicine, which is part of the National Academy of Sciences, says that 14 of those studies are invalid. And the the biggest weakness in those studies is they never studied vaccinated versus unvaccinated group, which is the only way that you can really make this determination. And more importantly, none of the vaccines that are given to children during the first six months of life were ever studied. We're going to look at vaccine, but we're going to look at everything. Everything is on the table. our food system, our water, our air, uh different ways of parenting, all the kind of changes that may have may have triggered this epidemic. It is an epidemic. Epidemics are not caused by genes. Genes can provide a vulnerability, but you need an environmental toxin. So, we know that it is an environmental toxin that is causing this cataclysm. And we are going to identify it. We are narrowly focused on identifying it and using as many scientists as we can from universities and research centers all over the world to focus them through NIH through Jay Pachara to focus them on answering this question. Man, I am shocked that he's calling his shot that fast that we're going to have an answer whatever five months from now. Um it would be incredible. So, not to get lost in the timeline because I'll be a little surprised if they actually have a definitive answer that quickly. To say that means you already think you know. Um, but that he is pursuing this stuff should be in my opinion the least controversial thing in the world of all the people um to be in a twist about. I just I cannot track how any sensible clearthinking person is bothered by what he's a try what he's trying to do. So if he were to come back and say uh without evidence it's vaccines, then I would understand if people said, "Hey, the methodology that you use doesn't make any sense. There's no way that you can call this. We got to have a debate. This is crazy." I'd be all for that. But when somebody's like, "We're going to look at everything. Everything's on the table. We've got to figure something out." I the numbers I'm going to give are directionally correct, if not literally correct, that uh back in whatever the 1970s, it was like one in 10,000 people had autism. And now it's like one in 37. It's insanity. So that kind of freakish rise to his point, that's an epidemic. There is a cause. That cause is knowable, but you've got to do the work to figure out what it is. And so, do you have a sense of like, give me the flip. Why is this controversial? What do people latch on to? Everybody, I think when they hear this, they automatically go to vaccines. He's having a war against vaccines. Somebody in Texas just died because of measles. So, so you're going to kill people. Yeah. That you're you're messing with official established science to uncover some conspiracy theory. Can I throw something in and you tell me where I'm going wrong? Uh, when I hear that argument, I'm like, uh, you can still get your kid vac vaccinated. Unless he says we're not going to allow vaccines, what's the problem? It's irresponsible that your kid doesn't get vaccinated because they can injure my kid. Voter problem. The other people are so stupid. They'll never be able to think through this. We just have to have one blanket party message. Vaccine good. That is that. But to RFK's credit, he talked about removing fluoride and water. He talked about removing dyes and food. So for him to be the vaccine guy when he has talked about other issues that have to his point have been environmental factors that can impact this. Um I'm at least giving him credit for being blanket like we're going to look at everything. Everything is on the table. Um and he's already done legislation in those other areas. I think vaccine is the one thing that he hasn't quite been able to break yet but it seems like he's trying to start with the science first before any sweeping mandates or anything. Man, I'm really going to be curious to see how many what they call natural experiments have been run because there will inevitably be groups of people like for instance, oh during co um parents were terrified to leave their house so they didn't get their kids vaccinated until they were three, whatever. There will be things like that or areas in the world where people don't get vaccines for religious reasons because they're um an untouched population in the Amazon rainforest, whatever. And you'll be able to see like, oh wait, this group of people, like they do this with the Japanese. Uh you look at the Japanese, no obesity. Maybe it's in the genes. They move to America, they get obese just like everybody else. Nope. Guess it's not the genes. So then it becomes, okay, well, there's something else going on. Maybe it's not the food supply, though. That seems obvious. Uh but we know that it's not the genes. Um and given the timelines that they're talking about, he's got to be doing something like that. They're looking at data that already exists and finding patterns in those um that they're expecting to yield a very conclusive result. And now with AI, I mean, it'll be able to parse through a lot of data. In five months, AI will have like 17 more models and they'll be able to read brains by that point. So, who knows? We'll get back to the show in a moment, but first, tech's biggest secrets are now being shared. And here is how to listen in. Whether you're tracking AI's exponential growth, trying to navigate the crypto landscape, or just trying to understand how technology is reshaping global power, you need an insider perspective. That's exactly what Tech Unheard delivers. This is not your typical corporate podcast. It's ARM CEO Renee Hos getting tech's most influential leaders to drop their guard and speak candidly about what's really happening. But one of the things that I realized was that as technology got more complex, it just became impossible for one company to specialize. You had to have the value chain split out into different companies so that you could have the specialization that made technological progress possible. Tune in to Tech Unheard from ARM and NPM right now on your favorite podcast platform. Your competition is already listening. And now let's get back to the show. The president of Harvard, Alan Garber, came out with a statement that has went viral on X. Yeah, like this is crazy. I thought I was misreading the number of views that this has 48 million, right? Uh yeah, 45.5 now. Jesus. No government, regardless of which parties in power, should dictate what private universities can teach, whom they can admire and admit and hire, and which areas of study and inquiry they can pursue. Um, a lot of talk has been around secondary education, especially with the protest that happened for Palestine and um, Israel, that a lot of people are now thinking that because uh, universities will allow that type of demonstration that indirectly supports a terrorist organization that they should then one remove funding, they should be restricted, their curriculum should be re-evaluated and all these things. Um, I know you're Mr. Top Down bad. Well, but here we're we're hiding the ball on this one. So the the quote, let's read it again. No government, regardless of which party is in power, should dictate what private universities can teach, whom they can admit and hire, and which areas of study and inquiry they can pursue. I agree. He is right. But then you can't be funded by the federal government if you're not going to adhere to their mandates. So uh Harvard has like $50 billion um stored in their endowment. So the real debate and the I mean the only reason I can think that this has gone viral is that that this is a debate about should we be giving money to these institutions yes or no and if people want the dollars from the government then now you're going to be beholden to what the taxpayers want. It's that simple. And if the taxpayers are saying because it was my understanding that the issue that really tipped this over was um transgender women in female sports and if that's true and my understanding is correct, it's like well then if you really feel that strongly about it, fair enough. Like do your thing. You you're right. As a private institution, you should be able to do whatever you want. And if that's what you want to do, don't take the federal dollars. Use the money from your endowment, which is plenty. I mean, you could run that school, I mean, theoretically forever. Um, so go for it. So, I This is another one of those where, um, I get that they want as much money as they can get, and if they can get money from the government, they're going to spin and try to get people on their side. Totally understand. But this one seems pretty simple. If you want federal dollars, you're going to have to adhere to what taxpayers are willing to pay for. And I believe Donald Trump felt something similar because on Truth Social, he tweeted, "Perhaps Harvard should lose its tax exempt status and be taxed as a political entity if it keeps pushing political, ideological, and terrorist inspired supporting sickness." Remember, tax exempt status is totally contingent on acting in the public interest. It's so interesting. This is um this is very much a Trump way to respond. This is escalatory tariffs. At first it was like, "Well, we're just going to withhold your funding." And you then clap back. And so now it's okay. Well, let's talk about your tax status. So, um, I get what he's trying to do, but I also go back to that impulse, I think, can turn pretty dark pretty fast. So, um, I agree with him that just be cut and dry. This is what you have to do to qualify for the federal dollars. I was quote unquote given the mandate. this is one of the things that the public really cares about. Um, and so if you don't adhere to these things, we're going to pull your funding. But just because they don't like it, there's no need to start escalating. Either universities get tax exempt status or they don't. And if they don't, it needs to be a universal policy. um and not a one-off because you think that Harvard's got a big mouth because now you get into um free speech issues and Trump plays pretty fast and loose with that. Happy see how it plays out. Um in other news, this was an interesting story that hit my feed over the weekend, but I kind of with the rise of AI, Black Mirror, Robotics, I thought that this would be a much bigger conversation. So, did you start watching Black Mirror? I'm like two episodes in. So far, I got the first one in. It's good. Yeah, we really probably should be talking about it. Yeah, we should do a Black Mirror breakdown maybe on the live next time. Uh, join us for our lives every Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, 6 a.m. Um, okay. So, what is No Mercy? That is It was a PC simulation game that had a protagonist rape, torture, and kill women. Um, there was some incest in there. I heard that there was a scene where like you can do it, you can like rape your mom. Like, it's it's it's really crazy. It's a really crazy game. Um, this game at first didn't carry a rating. didn't take carry a content warning, a content warning. It got downloaded so many times in early April that it then went to the homepage because it was being featured so much. So, it it picked up steam pow. Um but uh advocates of course um different civil rights organizations, they stepped in kind of flagging like, "Hey, this game is a little bit weird. It went viral on Twitter over the weekend and then the game has now been pulled and like removed." Now, I understand the freedom of platform, the freedom of expression, things like that, but again, because we're in a black mirror, we're on the precipice of AI, we're on the precipice of like these LLMs pretty much running the world. How do you feel about like the ethics conversation and the IP laws in a weird spot, like there's this kind of murky, we can't see what i
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