Kind: captions
Language: en
if you don't mind because we have a live
audience um I've given them a primer
already but if you don't mind taking
like a 15 20 second just who is Ian
Bremer uh I am a political scientist uh
that uh started a company almost 30
years ago trying to help us all
understand where the world is heading so
we've got about 250 people around the
world uh they're mostly analysts they
cover countries sectors themes
Uh it is based in New York City, but
it's global. Uh it's certainly not left
or right uh partisan. It's it's all
based on analysis and that's that's what
I am and who I am and all that. I love
it, man. Well, jumping into the
analysis.
So, Trump keeps things interesting. How
are you feeling about his handling of
the tariffs?
Um, I guess depends on what hour you ask
me since it's changed about 10 times
over the course of uh the last week
since Liberation Day. Uh, obviously the
markets don't like it. Uh, most American
voters don't like it. Uh, most American
allies don't like it. Um, and most
American adversaries don't like it. So I
it's it's hard to find a policy that has
been so universally panned so broadly uh
in such a short period of time. Um but I
think the biggest challenge is the
uncertainty uh is the fact that the
world's most powerful country, the
world's strongest economy uh is actually
driving the most geopolitical
uncertainty and it's doing that in many
ways but principally right now through
trade and tariff policy. uh we we we
have now applied the highest level of
global tariffs that the world has seen
since the
1930s. Uh but uh it's been on again off
again in so many ways. Is it 10% or is
it more on most countries around the
world? Are there going to be major
exceptions uh for certain types of goods
uh or is USChina going to be in a trade
embargo environment? Will will uh there
be uh dramatic changes in 90 days or
will there be further suspensions? Are
there going to be a number of huge deals
that get cut between the United States
and other countries around the world? Or
will those be underwhelming? All of
those things completely unclear a week.
At a meta level though, do you think
that um this level of chaos can only be
described as negative? like the
uncertainty just no matter what uh he's
got in mind, the uncertainty is is
creating an unacceptable level of um
economic trauma or do you see it some
other way?
Um I'd rather have uh chaos that gets to
a better place than have uh a trade war
with everybody uh that leads to a
fragmentation of the global economy. So,
I don't think that chaos is the worst
possible short-term outcome, but
long-term chaos and a lack of trust and
an erosion of America's reputational
power, reputational capital, where other
countries don't trust the United States
to do what it says it's going to do, uh,
will lead to behavior that we Americans
don't like. It'll lead to fewer people
sending their kids to be educated in
American universities. Fewer people
wanting to buy real estate uh in the US
from outside the country. Fewer people
uh want to work in the United States
with high skill set uh that is difficult
uh to substitute for domestically
presently um in the US. It'll lead to
other countries trying to derisk their
long-term trade and investment exposure
to the United States and do deeper deals
with each other like you're seeing with
Xihinping's trip to Vietnam and across
Southeast Asia this week like you're
seeing between the Canadians and the
Europeans right now like you see um
between the Brazilians and the Europeans
right now I mean so many other India and
UK um or Australia and New Zealand. I
mean, so much hedging and trying to risk
away from a United States that countries
feel like they can't have uh the same
level of exposure to that they have
historically. And how do you think this
plays out? So, he's got, let's say, till
the midterms to get this right. Um, do
you see this, as Ray Dallio has warned,
as a fundamental breakdown of the
international economic order that's
going to disrupt all of trade? Um, or do
you think that nope, he's going to
restabilize, everything's going to be
fine. Bit bumpy, but we're going to be
good. I I think that it's in between
those two things, Tom. Um, I think when
it comes to a lot of American allies uh
that are much smaller than the US, they
are desperate for deals. So just this
week the Japanese are sending uh the
trade minister and a large delegation
with an offer uh and that offer will
include buying a lot of US LNG. It'll
include significant Japanese additional
investments into the US um in high-tech,
in automotive, um in other areas and
will also include trying to bring the
Japanese yen down from the mid 140s to
120ish uh which is uh which I don't have
a clear policy uh for yet, but they're
trying to formulate one. And I'm sure
that will be announced as a huge win by
Trump, by Secretary of Treasury Scott
Bess, and by others. I think the South
Koreans are oriented towards a deal.
You've got a country like Mexico with a
leader that has 85% approval. She can
get anything done she wants. and she is
trying highly highly trying um to get
deals done on greater crackdown on
fentinel trafficking, greater crackdown
on illegal um migrants coming into the
US and the border all sorts of things
that she is trying to get done for
America. I think there will be a number
of countries, Tom, where in the next
one, two months, the Trump
administration is able to announce
deals, maintains 10% additional tariffs,
has additional revenue collection, but
but things become normalized. But I I
don't think that's going to be true with
Europe. I think with the EU, it's going
to be a lot harder. It's 27 countries.
They have to coordinate. They're very
bureaucratic. They move slowly. and
trade as a core competency of the
Europeans. Uh I also think that with
China uh we are um in the throws of what
is what feels like a trade war. And even
if the Americans pull back more
dramatically than they already have and
Trump might well do that because this
morning you may have seen China already
said we're not going to buy any more
Boeings. Chinese have already started to
say that they're going to be tougher on
critical minerals exports. These are
things that will hit the Americans
pretty hard uh if they're implemented
fully. Um but even if they don't, the
Chinese are utterly convinced that the
United States wants to contain them. And
that means that the two largest
economies uh in the world are going to
further decouple from each other and
there will of course be significant
economic cost globally as a consequence
of that. So I I don't come down um in
the camp that this is all uh the
precipice of uh a disaster and
globalization will be completely over. I
don't accept that. I think that's
overstated. Uh but but the idea that
Trump is suddenly going to just cut big
beautiful deals with everybody and we
can go back uh to where we were exanti
except America's in a stronger position.
That's clearly not true. And one other
reason for that is that the US is not
only picking fights on trade. The US is
also picking fights uh in terms of the
way it treats uh other countries and
their citizens when they are tourists in
the US, when they are students in the
US. They're undermining rule of law in
the United States. Um they are You're
saying Trump is undermining rule of law?
Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah, I mean he's
trying to erode the checks and balances
um that the executive has from the
judiciary, from the legislature um and
that he's ended the Foreign Corrupt
Practices Act, for example, suspended
that. There's been a bunch of things
that the US has done that makes the US
feel less trustworthy by allies around
Okay, I I want to get to that in a
minute, but um I want to go back first
to the implications here in China. So uh
my belief system rides on the back of
one of the the following statement is
one of the most important pillars of how
I'm thinking about this moment and that
is uh you absolutely must decouple from
China having uh such control over your
manufacturing base even if I can't get
people on board with that returning jobs
will help the working class here in
America um that you can't have your
largest military rival your only pure
your military rival control your uh
manufacturing base. So do you think from
that perspective something had to be
done and this may or may not be the
right path? Yes. Yes, you're right.
You're absolutely right. The United
States exported its entire semiconductor
industry to Taiwan 100 miles off of the
coast of the PRC. Right? I mean, that
that is that was that's easily as
stupid, maybe even stupider than the
Germans saying, "We're going to get all
of our energy from Russia, right? I
mean, it makes short-term market sense,
short-term profits for corporations that
don't care about the long-term strategic
viability of the country, and it
undermines the interest of the country."
So, absolutely, you're right. And my
point and the reason why I was going
beyond trade and talking about all of
these other issues is if you are focused
on a significant and vulnerable exposure
that the United States has to its
principal adversary, which by the way is
at par with the US in almost every
technology that matters and ahead of the
United States in a lot of core
technologies, then you cannot pick
fights with your ally. allies at the
same time. You can't drive your allies
to do more with China. You bring your
Why do you think he's doing it? Why Why
is he doing it? Is he a madman or does
he have uh an agenda?
Oh, no. He's not a mad man. Um I mean,
he he's completely convinced that he's
right about everything and he doesn't
listen to experts and he doesn't have
either a lot of policy expertise nor is
he patient um to get it. Um, and so, you
know, he basically says, "Well, I've
always been convinced that these
countries are all ripping us off, China
and Europe and Mexico and Canada, and
even countries where the US runs trade
surpluses, like Australia and Brazil,
and America's the strongest country in
the world, and I'm 78, and they just
tried to assassinate. They they shot me
in the head. So, I don't have much time.
I need to do all this now. So, I'm just
going to use my power, my position of
strength, and beat up on everybody
simultaneously. And that's what's gonna
be the result of that. Think he needs
allies. Doesn't think he needs allies.
What's going to be the result though? Is
is America going to end up isolated? Uh,
do we have enough juice to isolate
China? No, not by ourselves. I mean, you
know, again, I Tom, you hit on the
correct point, which is that there is a
big country out there that is not only
an adversary to the US, but has the
ability long-term to out compete the US
unless we are smart. And if we want to
win, if we want to ensure that our
economy is actually working and that we
have a level of sovereignty over our
decisions in the US and globally, we
need to be out competing the Chinese. So
for example, the chips act, which is one
of the smartest things that Biden did
and is completely aligned with Trump's
desire to outco compete China and
reshore semiconductors in the US. Trump
has said he's going to blow up. Why?
because it was Biden's. That's just
stupid. It's just stupid, right? You
can't play politics with something this
important. You have to get out of your
way and you have to think about what's
in the country's interest long term. And
so maybe you do have fights with the
Europeans, but you don't fight them
simultaneously. Maybe you are concerned
that you want to redo your deal with the
Mexicans and Canadians, which Trump got
done to begin with, the USMCA. That was
Trump's deal. And now he's telling the
Canadians 51st state. And now he's
telling the Mexicans, you know, 25%
automotive tariffs. He's picking these
huge fights at the same time that he's
trying to address a long-term structural
deep issue that really matters with the
Chinese and he's driving other countries
away from America. America. All right.
You you you said something about Trump
that I thought was um very interesting.
Uh and that was by far the most
dysfunctional and kleptocratic referring
to America and unfree political system
of the advanced industrial democracies.
Um talk to me about the kleptocratic
part. How do you see Trump fitting into
that? Is Trump uh a cause, a symptom? Uh
how do we how if we wanted to map your
mind about the the character of Trump as
it will play out politically? uh what
are the few beliefs about him that we
would need to understand? Well, I I said
that um in a structural way. It is
getting worse under Trump, but it is not
new. The idea that Trump is responsible
for kleptocracy in the United States is
farical. The US has been by far the most
coin operated of advanced industrial
democracies for decades. I mean, one
thing that almost all Americans agree on
is that the United States is the most
politically dysfunctional and
kleptocratic of advanced political
systems. Americans agree on that. They
just don't agree on the cause.
A lot of people would say, "Oh, well,
it's because of the Democrats." Others
would say, "Oh, it's because of Trump."
when the reality is it's an a a a dual
system where people with money have
access to power and have different
standards in terms of policing and rule
of law applying to them than people that
don't have that money. And and we see
that operate, we've seen it operate for
decades now. You know, that's why it
costs billions of dollars to run our
election and it takes over a year uh to
get done. and the Canadians have an
election that costs a few million
dollars and takes 5 weeks. Um, which
system is more democratic? Obviously,
not ours, right? I mean, those companies
expect to get something for the billions
of dollars that they donate to American
political campaigns. And they do get
something. They get outcomes. I mean, we
saw this with Tik Tok, right? Trump used
to be opposed to Tik Tok. He said it was
a national security concern. He was
concerned about it before Biden was and
then he got lots of money from Jeff Yas
and other investors into Tik Tok and he
did a complete 180 on the issue. Now
it's no longer a national security
concern. Now he's willing to cut a deal.
Now he's extending um the uh the
lifespan of Tik Tok without a deal even
as he's putting 145% tariffs on the
Chinese. Why? Well, because the
investors to Tik Tok are getting what
they paid for. And that's true for
crypto and it's true for oil and gas.
And on the Democratic side, it's been
true for big pharma and it's true for
retail. It's true for trial lawyers. I
mean, you know, you goes on and on and
on. Um, this is a huge problem. And
Trump was elected in part because it was
seen as a huge problem, but he is not
going to fix it. I I mean, he's
actually, in my view, uh, made it
considerably worse. When you take the
wealthiest person in the world, you give
them a political position and more
access to the presidency than anybody
else at the same time that he continues
to run, own and run um you know, sort of
six major multinational corporations.
It's hard to even identify what a
conflict of interest is in that
environment. Let me let me give you my
take on that. Obviously, I have a frame
of reference as a um longtime
entrepreneur. I get that that's going to
have skewed my worldview very
dramatically. Uh I look at Elon Musk and
I say you have literally for sure the
greatest living capital allocator. Full
stop. Um possibly the greatest capital
allocator ever. What he's doing is just
absolutely unbelievable in in the world
of business. and you get him to focus on
doing things inside of the government to
help us allocate capital. Well, for me,
while I obviously understand the
potential conflict of interest,
um I want this cabinet of very effective
uh business operators to come in and
point out systems that are broken, how
we can fix them, where there's uh fraud,
waste, and abuse. Not to get sucked into
the, you know, the typical language
there, but that all makes sense to me.
And given the level of transparency that
the Trump uh administration has put
forward, I'm very open to um saying,
"Okay, cool. These guys are proximity to
power for sure. They're going to be able
to make policies that are good for them,
but we can see everything that's
happening, and I would rather have these
guys than the historical bureaucrats
that I've gotten playing these kind of
roles." Um, do you have a similarly
charitable view or do you think that I'm
so distorted by my years as an
entrepreneur that I cannot see the
kletocracy that's happening right before
my eyes? No, I appreciate your honesty.
I always have, Tom. Um, and of course, I
mean, I'm a political scientist, but I
mean, I started a a multinational
corporation myself. I'm a founder. Uh,
I'm an entrepreneur. Um, and uh, I never
would have the success that I've had if
I didn't start in the United States,
which is a system that so um, you know,
promotes entrepreneurship. Um, unlike
what we see in Europe, for example,
unlike what we see in Japan, for
example. So, and and I've I I mean, I'm
not a rocket scientist. Um, I'm I'm not
an electric car wiz. So I I don't have
an ability to judge Elon as an
entrepreneur except for by looking at
his results, but this is a guy that has
shown, right, that he can build
worldclass corporations at scale or at
least lead them and finance them, right?
So I mean clearly he deserves, I think,
a lot of attention and credit for that.
Um I have no problem with that. And if
he was prepared to put those companies
in a blind trust, um I would have no
problem. In fact, I would welcome uh his
talent um in trying to create more
efficiencies in the United States
government. Um I don't like the idea of
um people that have expertise in one
area believing they have expertise in
every area. And so I see Elon as um
opining uh on um democratic systems in
Europe and saying that the AFD should
win and showing up on video calls with
them which is considered to be a
neo-Nazi party by a strong majority of
German citizens and and the rest of the
government won't work with them because
of that. I think he's damaging the
United States and its core alliances by
doing that and he's doing it inside the
Trump administration. I have a serious
problem with that. Um, and I also have a
problem with him meeting with uh
Narendra Modi uh in Blair House, which
is part of the White House complex. And
it's not clear whether he's doing it in
his official capacity uh running Doge or
his unofficial capacity building
business. When Trump was asked by a
journalist that evening, Trump answered
honestly, they said, you know, in what
capacity is Elon meeting Modi? And Trump
said, I don't know. And and I mean
that's the right answer. How could Trump
know? He could be doing either both. Who
knows? But that's not okay. I mean if if
Modi came to the United States um and
and brought you know sort of uh you know
Amani or Adani um into a meeting with
Trump or met with Trump separately we in
the United States Democrats Republicans
independents would say that India was
becoming a banana republic like that's
just not acceptable right so but the
fact that the United States government
is now doing that I think really
undermines capability so I In short, uh
I think that what Elon is bringing to
Doge, the fact that we now have some
world-class AI and technology
capabilities that otherwise would never
be applied to a very bureaucratized
um US regulatory system and is going to
look for regulations that are um
destructive of value, um that are
overlap happening in different
departments. I think there are a lot of
countries around the world that are
going to take that as a model and try to
do the same thing inside their countries
and they won't be as effective. So I
think there will be efficiencies that
come from Doge. Um it is clear that
that's not the only thing that they're
doing and I truly mistrust the conflict
of interest especially for someone
already worth hundreds of billions of
dollars. like he doesn't need more
money. So, it would be trivial for him
to put his country's companies in blind
trust I and not have those conflicts of
interest if he so chose. He chose not
to. And I I have to I I cannot afford as
an American citizen to give him the
benefit of the doubt for choosing not to
have rules that apply to everybody else
in US politics a court over 200 years of
history. those rules should not suddenly
apply to Elon. I'm not okay with giving
him the benefit of the doubt for that.
I'm very interested in your views on
that, Tom. We'll get back to the show in
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let's get back to the show. So I think
that level of friction is good. I think
it's good that um you and I uh view this
very differently. Uh because I believe
that the best ideas are arrived at not
by one person convincing somebody else,
but by there being dynamic tension
between the two and them having to find
this compromised way forward. Uh so I
think it's good when I given how hard I
have worked in my life to achieve the
kind of success that Elon has achieved
and found it uh with my talent and
intelligence and interest just not
possible. He's he's excelling on a level
that my imagination failed to offer as a
possibility. Like I just until I saw it
I did not think uh running that many
companies um engaging with the world at
the level of engineering would yield the
kind of results that that he's done. So
I am um I think it's wise to be
skeptical but at the same time for me I
come at it with I want the smartest
people on planet earth aimed at the
problem of making America the most
successful c country and then getting a
sensible immigration policy so that we
can continue to be a beacon for all the
people all the world over to come here
and to out China by being the most
American thing ever and not by trying to
out China by being better at being
Chinese. And so, um, in that millure, I
get that I'm taking a risk, but uh, I
fall on the other side of that where I'm
like, I get it. It's different. It's a
breach into decorum. I might look at it
funny. If I didn't, um, align with the
things that he's done in life are the
exact kind of things that I've tried to
do and I know how hard they are and for
whatever success I've had, it was
extremely difficult. And so for him to
be able to do it at such a scale, I'm
just like, yes, that's the kind of
person that I want aimed at this
problem. But you brought up AI earlier
and I know the community here is very
eager to hear you um give us your view.
I for one think AI is meteorite
screaming towards the Earth and not that
it's going to destroy everything, but
that it nothing will be the same.
Literally nothing. Top to bottom,
nothing will be the same on the other
side of this. Um so curious to get your
take what you think the impacts of AI
are going to be. I agree and and look in
the context of that there's going to be
so much change in the geopolitical
system in the economic system and how
societies function in the next 5 years
because of AI. You know maybe the
conversations we're having about you
know is is it problematic or not for
Elon to have a conflict of interest.
Maybe we're rearranging deck chairs on
the Titanic, right? Maybe it just
doesn't matter. Maybe, you know, your
point is like you just need to go in all
in on your smartest people. And if that
means the US ends up to be less of a
democracy, well, hey, if we're efficient
and we can grow and we can out compete
China, maybe that's fine. We weren't
much of a democracy anyway. There are a
lot of Americans that feel that way.
There are a lot of Americans that say,
"Look, I mean, I've given these guys a
chance, Democrats and Republicans, for
the last 40 years, and all they've done
is enrich themselves. They haven't
actually taken care of the average
American. So, why do I care so much
about this ostensible democracy, you
know? I mean, why don't I just go with
people who are are going to like break a
bunch of things?" And and I I think
that's I mean Planet Elon in that regard
is is quite popular especially to a lot
of young men um who haven't felt so good
about where uh the leadership of America
has been driving them. So I get that.
Now in AI front um I mean I I think here
is an area that is I mean even the last
3 months if you look at these new models
that are you know they're worldclass
capabilities they're out competing you
know humans in in top math competitions
in science competitions uh I mean you
know you know highlevel employees in
almost every sector are now using AI to
improve their work. And I think it's a
very short leap from that um to
displacement of very large numbers of of
white collar workers. I mean, you know,
you've got tens of thousands of people
um in the in New York um and in London
uh doing risk management in banking
industry. I I think we're a year a year
and a half away from needing 10% of
those employees for example, right? I
see this happening in so many industries
and including my own. Um I mean you know
there's so many things that are
happening inside my company that like we
have to every month rethink okay are our
employees capable of using this
technology well or are they going to get
displaced and being very open and honest
with it. Yeah, same here. Someone's
going to do it. Um, so I I do see it as
as completely transformative. For me,
the thing that I find most interesting,
which is coming like this year, is as AI
starts training on our individual data
um either on the cloud or eventually on
our smartphones because right now you
and I the most dysfunctional thing that
we do in associating ourselves with the
world around us is that when we open our
smartphone, we are on like a hundred
different apps.
We're going from one to the other to the
other. You and I just experienced that
in trying to get this live stream going
right now. That is going to change
radically when AI starts training on us.
We will have an individual AI agent. And
so instead of just being able to use AI
to have a voice, suddenly we're going to
use an AI to act for us. It'll become
our most
essential relationship that knows us
better than any person does. Yeah. Um
and and that I think is really going to
change humanity. It'll make us much more
capable. It'll bring knowledge on
worldclass knowledge on medicine, on
training and
education, on business to human beings
that have access to it no matter what
country they're living in whether or not
they have infrastructure around them.
All they need is that smartphone um and
that app. Um so they just need access to
a battery, electricity, and then they're
they're off to the races. They're
globalized. Um, but it also is going to
change how we think, who we are, how we
interact with others. And for people
that don't have it, they're not going to
be like human beings. And I worry a lot
about that. I don't think that we have
the governance and the society structure
to handle that kind of transformation
that quickly. I'm going to need more
words on that. So, I I wrote a comic
book, this is five or six years ago now,
exploring this moment. And the punchline
of my uh comic was that there would be
an inevitable schism between what I'll
now call the new Puritans who refuse to
embrace AI, who refuse to integrate
technology into their body, and then
people that embrace it whole hog. And um
that was always that still is how I
think that this is going to play out
that there becomes a religious friction
between people who believe that
integrating technology and going that
deep on AI is somehow an affront to God.
Uh and I think that's going to create
the schism, but I hear you saying
something slightly differently. So where
do you think the friction point is?
Um I think your friction point is real.
Um, I am a little less worried about
that than I am about the say 2, three
billion people that won't have access to
AI even though they'd like it because
they can't afford it because governments
keep them from accessing it. Um, I
suspect more the former than the latter.
I think that we're likely to have a
period of, you know, it might be 10
years, it might be one year, but look,
there's been a digital divide and you've
got a whole bunch of people that don't
have access to the internet right now
around the world. Um, and they're still
able to exist in this economy and
society. Um, it's just, you know,
there's a huge gap there, right? But
with AI, you're talking about creating
something that's different from homo
sapiens, right? I mean, you know, once
you are engaging with AI real time, it's
changing who you are. It's changing your
brain function and capacity. You're
becoming kind of a hybrid, right? Um and
and you wouldn't be able to imagine not
engaging with it real time. You'll never
shut it off, right? And I think that
those people that don't have access to
that um will will lose u they may they
may gain something in terms of
existential humanity. That's a
philosophical conversation. But in terms
of access to power and and capital and
the ability to like develop and grow in
a society that is speeding speeding
speeding up ever faster. Um, those are
people that will not be treated as
fellow humans. And wow, we've always
been bad at that, right? Oh, yes, we
have. Uh, that that's very interesting.
All right, I could go on for that
forever, but we have you. You're such an
expert on what's going on in uh Russia,
Ukraine. Uh, if you don't mind, give us
a a quick take. Trump had talked about
I'm gonna end this war on day one.
Needless to say, I don't think anybody
believed that was going to happen. Uh,
it didn't happen. It seems to be
stalling out. No, no. He's even said,
look, I was being somewhat sarcastic, I
think is his exact quote. Uh, is Putin
playing games? Does Putin have any
interest in resolving this? Uh, or is
this going to drag out for years? So,
Trump has used a carrot and stick
approach on Russia Ukraine. The problem
is that he's used stick against Ukraine
and carrot against Russia when he should
be using a more even-handed approach.
His stick approach against Ukraine has
been effective in my view. Um I, you
know, was just with the former Ukrainian
foreign minister uh here in my office a
few days ago and he admitted as such,
which is, you know, he wasn't super
comfortable with it. But the fact was
that when Trump suspended intelligence
and military support to Ukraine, which
Biden never would have done, you know,
and he didn't suspend it forever. He
suspended it for a couple weeks, but the
Ukrainians took notice and and they were
like, "Okay, we cannot mess around with
this guy because we will lose the war
very quickly." So, if he's telling us
that he wants a ceasefire
unconditionally, we have to give him a
ceasefire unconditionally. And that is
indeed what Ukraine did. He demanded it.
And Ukraine immediately said, "Yes,
sir." Right? So now you have Trump going
to Putin saying, "Okay, let's have a
conversation about a ceasefire." And
Trump's talking about all the things the
Americans can do with Russia. They can
end the sanctions and they can co-invest
in the Arctic. Um, and they can work
together on, you know, sort of the
Middle East, all these things. and and
yet he hasn't been saying and if you
don't like there's going to be holy hell
to pay and poop. He's started to talk a
little bit more like that now. Um I
don't know if you think he's serious. He
he the only thing he can do that's
really going to disrupt Russia is uh
stop their exporting of oil and natural
gas. Do you think he'll really play that
card? That's not true. Um there are lots
of things he can do. he can say, "And
Russia, if you don't uh agree to a
ceasefire, um I'm going to provide a lot
more support to Ukraine." Yes. I meant
non-militarily. Oh, well, but but
actually Trump's own advisors like Keith
Kellogg, I mean, were saying that before
the inauguration. They were saying that
look, it if there's a deal, great. And
if there's not, I'm going to hit you
hard. Um and you know that that is the
reality that they've also talked about
sanctions directly on the Russian
central bank. Um they've talked uh about
yes they've talked about taking uh
sanctions against Russian energy export
which would bring oil prices up but in
an environment where OPEC is pumping a
lot more and where prices are so low
that the American frackers are actually
starting to pull back on drilling uh
because it's no longer profitable.
there's a lot more flexibility for Trump
to hit the Chinese and the Indians on
that front. I mean, we've got oil prices
that have been touching under 60 right
now. That's very different than when
they're at 80, right? So, yeah, I do
think there's flexibility, but it's
interesting that Trump in the last just
24 hours, right, has been talking about,
well, this was Ukraine and Biden's war.
This wasn't Putin responsible for it. I
mean, he is it's been it's been an
interesting issue. It's the one foreign
policy issue where you can consistently
see a difference in what Trump is saying
publicly from what his own advisors are
saying. Um, and you don't see that on
Iran. You don't see it on Gaza. You
don't see it on China. But on Russia,
Trump has been so much more cautious
about about a willingness to ever say
anything critical about Putin. Um, and
you know, at this point, Putin is
starting to make Trump look weak on this
issue. It's he's he's starting to imply
that I don't need to actually do
anything that you're telling me. I I
don't need a ceasefire. I can just keep
going. I can I can actually I can launch
missiles and kill dozens of people
including kids on Palm Sunday, which you
saw direct condemnation from a number of
US top officials. You saw it from Marco
Rubio, Secretary of State. You saw it
from Rick Grenell, special envoy. You
saw it from Kellogg. You didn't see it
from Trump. Trump Trump said, "Well, no,
the Kremlin told me that was a mistake."
usually, you know, Trump doesn't usually
give the benefit of the doubt to folks
like that. Well, people think he does to
Putin all the time. Do you think that he
is a a shill for Putin or do you think
there's another take on this? There's no
reason to think he's a shill. Uh I I
mean, we've never had evidence. I I I
need evidence before I'm willing to make
an argument like that. Um I I think that
Putin certainly has historically treated
Trump a lot more nicely on an individual
level than European leaders have. Like I
remember when Trump was first president,
he attended the G20 in Hamburgg and you
know he went across the table and sat
down with Putin because he felt like the
Europeans treat him like Obama used to
treat him that he thinks that he's a
rude, he's rude, he's an idiot, doesn't
deserve his position where I mean, you
know, Putin's kind of like Muhammad bin
Salman, like you know, he's just one of
the guys, right? Hangs out. So I think
there's some of that. And I also think
that Trump literally doesn't like the
EU. I just I disagree with him strongly
on this. He believes that a strong
European Union is bad for the US because
they get together and they coordinate
their policy against the US. He would
rather see a fragmentation so that those
individual countries are weaker and have
to do bilateral deals with the US that's
stronger. I think in a world where
China's a big adversary, Russia's an
adversary, having stronger allies is
actually important for the United
States. Trump disagrees. He just
fundamentally disagrees. That's a real
point of contention between the two of
our worldviews. But I I don't see I
think what Trump Trump just wants a deal
with Putin, thinks he can get one.
You'll remember President Bush, right?
Uh Junior uh looked into Putin's eyes
and saw his soul. Uh there are I mean
Trump would not be the first leader that
has good meetings with Putin and thinks
that you know sort of that's that's
going to lead to a breakthrough in the
relationship. Um but it's not and Trump
is going to have if he wants a ceasefire
and he he does um he's going to have to
actually push Putin a lot harder and
more directly than he has been willing
to do here too for.
All right. I know we have to let you go.
Uh before we do, do you have a a quick
take on what's going on Israel Gaza? How
you feeling about that? Well, let me
first say something uh positive about
Trump in the Middle East, which is that
his Iran uh opening is a big one. Uh and
I think he is uh reasonably likely to
succeed. Um the Iranians are in a very
weak position right now. uh they have
lost uh control over their uh proxies
across the region. You'll remember with
Signalgate, Vice President Vance was
saying, "Oh, this is a horrible thing
and I should really tell Trump that he
shouldn't go ahead with this war that's
going to hurt the Americans." But nobody
else wanted to back him up. And Steven
Miller shut it down. So, he didn't
actually tell Trump he opposed it. Well,
now we're a few weeks into America going
after the Houthies. No American soldiers
uh have been uh killed uh in battle, and
the Houthies are now basically telling
the Americans, "Okay, if you please stop
uh we we'll stop attacking uh shipping
that's going through the Red Sea." So,
that looks like a win. And now the
Iranians, who said they wanted nothing
to do with the Americans, are willing to
do direct talks. So, this has been Trump
using a fist um to get to a place of
peace and and and the meeting that the
Israeli prime minister had with Trump a
week ago in the White House was almost
as bad as Zalinsk's trip to the Oval
last month. And I mean, for everyone
that says that Trump is, you know, in
Israel's pocket, and yes, he certainly
supports a lot of things that Israel is
doing. Um, but he was willing to make
sure that BB knew who the boss was. BB
wanted the tariffs to come off and Trump
said, "We give you billions a year and
you should be appreciative about that,
sir." Um, and and Erdogan's our friend
and we like his policy uh in Syria right
now. We don't like like what you're
saying. And by the way, we're about to
engage in direct talks with the
Iranians, and we're not going to engage
in military strikes against their
nuclear capabilities the way you want to
drag us into a war, BB. So, I give Trump
full marks on the way he handled that
conversation. Now uh on Gaza uh the US
here um is losing a lot of support
around the world because you know it's
not just defending Israel after the
heinous terrorist acts of October 7th.
It's now supporting Israel in occupying
over 50% of Gaza. Right. um and cutting
off completely all humanitarian aid to
the Palestinians in Gaza for the last
month. And that that is unconscionable
behavior. It is clearly unacceptable to
the international community, but we the
United States apparently have no problem
with it. And we're also prepared to
deport um American uh residents uh with
green cards that are critical of that
policy. Um that we have not accused
credibly of any crimes and and that
fundamentally uh is opposed to free
speech which I I firmly uh oppose. I
mean, we free speech is an essential an
essential right for everyone that lives
in this country. And we've decided it
doesn't actually apply um to a whole
class of folks. And I think that that
sends a very bad message um to those
that uh we want to attract to our great
nation. Um help me think more clearly
about this one because I'm very hardcore
about free speech. It it is one of the
hills that I would quite literally die
on. uh and at the same time I believe
that we have an obligation to protect
our culture and it's like in my company
we have this thing called principles
actually came from Ray Dallio uh and Ray
Dalio talks about this when you open up
a culture so that people can say
anything they want um you find that they
will go and attack the foundations of
your um your system now I believe an
American citizen should be able to
attack those systems um because you're a
citizen and you have the full protection
of the law. But if you are coming in as
a green card holder who is not a
citizen, I'm married to a green card
holder, so let me be very clear. I I
will have to suffer uh the consequences
if this goes in the wrong direction. Um
but I do believe that we're in a
position right now where um if we don't
establish that America does have a
culture, that we have values that are
worth protecting, um we're going to end
up losing that culture. and the very the
the paper that things are written on are
only as good as the culture that backs
them up. And so you how do we how do we
dance this dance? I agree with that. And
and but that means that our leaders have
to stand for those values. They have to
actually live as examples of those
values. Um and I I do not believe I
we're not talking about students that
are standing for Hamas. We're talking
about students um that oppose ethnic
cleansing. We're talking about students
that stand for rule of law. These are
students that would support Ukrainians
just as they would support
Palestinians. And and and I I think it
it is uh important as someone whose own
grandmother was Armenian fleeing
genocide. Um, and by the way, uh, ethnic
cleansing just committed against the
Armenians. 120,000 in Nagono Karabak
that were forced out of their territory.
The land's been taken and Americans
barely said boo. Just happened because
that's the way of the world right now.
But the United
Who pushed in? Azarbaian supported by
Turkey. Um, I know it barely made news.
Nobody cares. It's just the Armenians.
Um but I mean you know we could talk
about all this stuff's happening sa
South Sudan right now the DRC right now
I mean there's so many places that you
know a lot of people suffering but there
aren't any journalists on the ground
there are no economic interests so we
don't care but you know in the case of
Israel Palestine of course there's a lot
more focus a lot more tension Russia
Ukraine a lot more focus lot a lot more
tension the the the point is that we
need to stand for rule of law we need to
stand for the ability of human beings
around the world to experience personal
liberties. Um the ability to make a life
for themselves and their children. Um
and and we America are falling down on
that both at home and around the world
right now. And that is I think why this
moment feels so fractious. We have to
start standing for the things that our
founders believed in to a much greater
degree. And we need to look at ourselves
and ask ourselves first and foremost,
how are we not living up to that? Um, I
fully agree that if you have someone
that shouldn't be in this country
legally, um, we should be addressing
that. And the Democrats lost badly in
part because they failed to address
something that was clearly a matter of
rule of law in the United States. They
were allowing people to take advantage
of an America that wasn't upholding its
own laws. That's where American leaders
are failing. And they're failing on the
left and they're failing on the right.
Uh but to allow green card holding
students to get caught up in identity
politics and partisan warfare, that's
not what America stands for. America
stands for due process for everybody in
this country. Um and that that's why
people try to come here um from
everywhere because they understand that
this is not just a place to make money.
It's also a place where we respect
individual liberty um and and and we're
losing that.
I hear that. Well, Ian, thank you so
much for joining us, man. It was an
honor to have you as the very first
guest to join us during a live. It was
wonderful. This was fantastic. Um, since
you're here, where can people engage
with you? Uh,
gzeroddia.com uh is where they can
follow all of uh the work that our media
company puts out. And you can also
follow me on your whether it's the
Twitter sphere or uh you know, sort of
LinkedIn or wherever else you want at
Ian Bremer. All of those things work.
And if you send me a note, I do my
damnest to respond. Awesome, brother.
Thank you again so much, man. I really
appreciate it. One of these days we'll
do it in person and live. It'll be live.
I would love that, man. I would love
that. All right, until then. So, you got
to tell me where I can get that that
jacket, right? Because like if we were
twinsies, we'd be like trading places or
something. There we go. See, now that
spirit I like. I'll send you a link.
There you go. All right, brother. Take
care. Be good. Bye. Peace out. Bye. If
you like this conversation, check out
this episode to learn more. Sunzu
famously said, "The supreme art of war
is to subdue the enemy without
fighting." But in today's highstakes
tensions between America, China, and
Russia, what if the ultimate battlefield
isn't military, it's economic? Today's
guest, Edward Fish.