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Language: en
give me the hedge fund manager look at
how do we win in this moment
>> actually you know just you saying that
last thing I had that thought you said
what's changed since 2008 and I thought
only fans you know like how much of
America has signed up or actually on
only it's crazy statistics right
>> dude it's wild
>> it's wild
>> it's like women 18 to 24 something like
10% of them are only fans models that is
insane It's insane.
But um again, I think the oldest
profession in the book, human
connection, these kind of things.
>> That is the nicest way to say sex I've
ever heard in my life.
>> Oh, you know, I'm a I'm a gentleman.
What can I say?
>> The
if we take a step back, what's the
inevitability here? Is the government
going to abandon all these middle class
people and voters?
>> Actually, probably not the voters.
>> Yeah. especially in the blue states.
Actually, blue states will probably be
impacted more than red states for
various reasons. If you look at the
demographics, they're not going to, are
they? So, what you have is you just need
to do your classical analysis of what
does that person do when they lose their
job and they've still got dollars,
they've still got savings. People will
be looking for retraining. They'll be
looking for meaning. Religion is going
to go crazy and boom. You know these
kind of things are things are almost
inevitabilities because they'll still
have purchasing power to a degree. On
the other side you have like two
economies right you have your AI economy
and your human economy. The AI is
providing increasingly customized
services and getting a lot of the
cognitive surplus etc. But a lot of
things you can't substitute for a human
for at least another 10 years. And the
reason for that is just we can't build
enough robots honestly. I think robots
in a few years will be able to do just
about everything a human can do apart
from the very soft skills. Although the
Japanese are going very aggressively on
that, but you just can't build enough of
them. That's literally the only thing
holding it back. Because if you look at
what Elon Musk says about Optimus and
you work out the math, an Optimus robot
will be a buck 50 an hour. Jesus.
You just work out the math. It's
$20,000. you have a depreciation
schedule
and again you look at unitry and other
ones like they have fine finger
manipulation now they can make recipes
they can do all this they'll have skin
suits etc but again human connection
retraining
attention is the thing that doesn't
become scarce this is the really
interesting thing do you think video
games are going to go down or up over
the next few years they're going to go
up because again there's only a finite
amount of human attention and as people
kept more free time, they'll want to
absorb that attention even more. So, the
new media space is going to go crazy.
Digital assets, I think the US has gone
too far on legalizing them now in some
ways. When I look at the legislation
that's coming out,
>> like I said, AI would be the biggest
bubble ever. The digital asset bubble is
going to exceed that by far.
You'll be able to buy any cryptocurrency
ICO from your smartphone using Apple Pay
on Stripe next year.
So, what are they going to do? There
will be some really interesting
classical stuff and our foundation coin
that we're building is the better
Bitcoin that helps cure cancer is going
to be probably at the top, he says. But
there will be so many of these crazy
dodgecoin, fcoin type things, celebrity
coins, they've never took off. NFTts
because they're scarce forms of capital
and again people have a certain amount
of attention and they'd be looking for
the casino. Like you look at Cali and
Poly Market, they've legalized those
now. What are those? They're betting.
>> Yeah. Straight gambling. So is the stock
market in my opinion. But
>> it's stock market. Yeah. But you know,
at least they had an excuse. Whereas
Cali and Poly Market straight betting.
It is gambling with a better cover
story. Yes.
>> But a year ago that was completely
illegal and now it's legal. So I think
if you look at it, there's the soft
human aspect. There's the repurposing of
all these people and attention is the
key thing. How can you capture people's
attention that they'll pay for because
there'll be a lot more of it cuz they
won't have jobs and other things kind of
coming forward. And so we're going to
see some booms like we've never seen
before. And I think media is going to be
ultra interesting in that aspect. Um,
plus like I said, I I was really shocked
by the US government on digital assets.
Like I get they want to get money
moving, but I can't see how next year
the digital asset boom will completely
outstrip everything.
>> Actually, it's interesting to see this.
If you look uh Open AI anthropic this
year will probably do $20 billion of
revenue. The entire listed software
sector in the US will do 40 billion in
incremental revenue. Whoa.
>> Crypto has done 150 billion in net
influence.
>> Jesus.
>> And next year, is that going to go down
or up? It's going to go
>> absolutely ballistic.
>> Okay. But so how are you treating that
as an investor? By the way, do you still
actively invest at least for yourself?
>> No, I've gone all in on my new thing. So
I mean like we've got a Bitcoin
competitor coming out Foundation Coin or
Compliment, shall we say? It's 99% the
same code, but every coin cell goes to
supercomputers for cancer, education,
etc. and giving people free AI. And then
we're going to put computers in every
country, computers for all the sectors.
And you can direct the computer of the
network to organizing our knowledge. So
benefit,
>> we think that will do well because
crypto is a $4 trillion industry
with nothing bluechip in it. Like
Bitcoin is bluechip because it's lasted
a long time. Ethereum because it's a
network. But what's the alternative to
Bitcoin if you want a monetary asset?
And we thought, what if you create a
monetary asset where every coin cell
goes to helping people that builds
trust? You use the free AI, it builds
trust. You organize knowledge and it
helps people with cancer.
>> So is there is there an interface where
I'm saying, I want this to go to that
compute.
>> I want this one allocated to cancer.
This one allocated to autism. Can I
allocate to anything I want or is there
it's only from year six in the drop-own
menu? Like how does that work?
>> It'll be anything that can be benefited
by compute. So we start with all the
healthcare things and then we're going
to expand it out and you'll have a free
version of chat GPT as your AI assistant
to organize that and you'll be able to
buy it with your Apple Pay or whatever.
And again, it's 99% the same code as
Bitcoin but like a million times faster.
So things like that I think will do he
says very well that's why I've gone all
in on that versus trading the market
etc. But in general, I think if you
think about attention,
actually digital assets have to be the
biggest thing. If you think about so
many forms of capital being completely
flooded out like again your taxi
medallions, your factories, even other
things being replaced by this, your
workplaces, offices, digital assets will
come to the four. It's just there's
going to be such a deluge of them that
you have to be intelligent about that
because what's more fun watching Netflix
or trading crypto? Probably trading
crypto for a lot of people
>> for a certain personality type. Yeah,
>> NFTs might make a comeback. You never
know.
>> Well, the interesting thing like if
people understood the underlying
technology, NFTs haven't gone anywhere.
They're just not part of the gambling
mechanism right now, which honestly I
think is better. But
>> uh nonetheless, it does the the whole
crypto ecosystem in this economic moment
is bound to attract gamblers. Um and I
think that we're going to see a lot a
lot a lot of that. First of all, people
just like to gamble. The dopamine rush
of it all. But um they also in a time
where nobody can afford a house, you're
like, "Well, if I am smarter than the
next guy and I can outb them on when to
get out, uh then I really can." And so,
yeah, you're going to see a lot of that,
which is the getrichqu impulse. This all
started from me asking you through the
lens of a hedge fund manager, where
should be pe where should people be
allocating their capital? Uh digital
assets is the thing that you have the
most conviction in. Obviously, you're
not backing anything. You're not giving
anybody specific advice, but I do want
to drill in more. Um, so attention is
part of what makes that interesting. Um,
with the stock market, the nice thing
is, at least until, call it 2008, you
could really understand what stocks to
move on based on fundamentals. I think
that's largely gone out the window as
it's become more and more of a gambling
mechanism. Uh but what do if somebody
were surveilling the digital asset
landscape? Is there a type of
fundamental that you look for?
So you said the fundamentals went out
the window for the stock markets cuz so
much of things are narrative driven that
it's crazy now, right?
>> Mhm. And again what's your marginal
narrative for various companies against
each other or various things like in the
digital asset space you have something
like hyperlquid
which basically is doing almost direct
buybacks of its um shares or fund or
something like that of its tokens with
cash being valued less than things that
have absolutely no cash and no
fundamentals whatsoever like dodgecoin
is still worth $20 billion you know
something like that why is this the case
everything is about marginal narrative
And so what you're looking at is as the
world evolves in the next few years,
what's going to capture the marginal
narrative? You see Elon setting this up
with Tesla or X or whatever by saying
they're going to be AI companies and
robotics companies
because that's the next narrative. And
Elon is a master narration, right? Like
Oracle just got to $900 billion
yesterday. I think it was up 46%.
>> Right? Why? because suddenly it's an AI
company versus a legal company with a
database attached, right? Cuz they kept
suing all their people. Like people are
looking for the narratives be it in the
stock market or the crypto markets. You
have to think what does it look like and
then what are the narratives that going
to incrementally improve and attract
more and more people because it's
dangerous now to deploy your capital.
Are you going to give your capital to
bonds in the government or are you going
to start deploying it everywhere else?
What does growth look like? Growth is
probably going to come down. Rates are
going to come down.
But what's going to happen then? So I
think that what I look for primarily is
marginal narrative creation and then
understanding where the capital flows
go. So when I created foundation coin,
you know, I was like, I'd like to have a
Bitcoin but backed by GPUs where the
GPUs are doing good. I want as much of
that new compute capacity going towards
helping organize cancer knowledge in the
world, helping give that knowledge to
people because that's a good thing. 100%
of your purchases go towards that.
That's a good thing. That's something
you can tell your grandma about. And we
don't have a blue chip like that in the
digital asset sector. So that's how I
kind of looked at it. But at the same
time, you see areas where communities
build around certain things, right? And
that's what crypto has done classically
well, but it's also why you have rabid
Tesla owners, right? Or you have people
that love Palanteer and other things and
they suddenly go from 10 times earnings
or 20 times earnings to 200 times
earnings.
>> Wow.
I mean, Palanteer I think is like 200
times earnings now or something like
that. $400 billion as a company
>> cuz people like that's the structural
growth. So you look at your
inevitability, you look at the narrative
that will get you there and you look at
what steps these entities are taking
against that structural growth and
that's kind of come in instead of
profits and these other things.
And that's the nature of how companies
go. They go from their assets to a story
about future earnings to a story about
market capture with structural elements.
And so here on your podcast, you've
given your audience a bunch of stories
of the future.
Any company that does like defense
technology with AI is going to do well
now. Full stop. Why? Because there'll be
increasing unrest. Surveillance
companies will do well. Companies that
do attention better or attention capture
others will do well. you know digital
assets you can honestly I just buy an
index of these things because indexes
are usually good things but you know all
the endowments of the world and others
are just going to buy crap loads of
digital assets that's why you have these
digital asset treasury companies raising
billions of dollars
completely crazy because people want
exposure
>> what do you think about Michael Sailor's
all-in strategy on Bitcoin
>> I mean it came at just exactly the right
time and it's kind of similar to
classical
like it's a leverage play on crypto
assets at exactly the right time. So if
Bitcoin went down 50% then he'd be in a
bit of trouble, right? Because of the
market demand for him selling his shares
to buy more Bitcoin would evaporate. But
right now he's going to do well. Why?
Because
is there going to be less money in
digital assets next year than this year?
>> No. Is there anything decent apart from
Bitcoin? You get a bit of Ethereum, bit
of Salana, but there's nothing that
institutions will buy. Can institutions
buy Bitcoin directly? Probably in a year
or two, it'll be available on the
Chicago Mercantile Exchange as a
commodity. Right now, they can't. So,
what do they do? They buy Micro
Strategy.
>> So, again, you're talking about a trade
versus a company. For a trade, always
look where the puck's going to go and
where the capital's going to flow.