Kind: captions
Language: en
Trump has actually managed to get all
living hostages returned in Israel.
Hamas, though promptly starts executing
Palestinians in the street. China
tightens its restrictions on rare earth
elements, causing Trump to do the tariff
hoke pokey and the markets to go crazy.
Steve Bannon says they have a path to
getting Trump a third term. And you've
got to hear it for yourself. The UK
defines anyone who believes Western
culture is under threat from mass
migration a terrorist madness. And
SpaceX has a successful launch of
Starship. And this is the ship that will
make us a multilanetary species. Got to
see this one today. All right, let's
jump over across the seas to Israel and
Gaza. Um we were celebrating last week.
Uh Trump was taking a victory lap. the
Nobel Peace Prize application was
started and then it seems like Hamas has
broken descent. IDF has identified three
of the bodies that were handed over from
Hamas, but the last one they can't
readily um identify and then on the flip
side of that, Hamas has actively um done
a few executions in Gaza City in this uh
center square. They were saying that
these were traders who were uh working
with Israel to send gangs and Hamas is
trying to now regain control of the
city. Trump was also talking yesterday
pushing to disarm um pushing to disarm
Hamas and Hamas was and threatening them
saying he's going to make sure they're
they're going to do it and they're going
to do it quickly. Netanyahu backed them
up. Um it seems like we were all
sunshine and rainbows on Monday, Tuesday
when the hostages left and now we're
starting to realize like wait a second
this not isn't as cut and dry as we
thought. Um do you have any nervousness
about this pending ceasefire
um deal? Yeah, when you look at the
executions in the square, I think it's
pretty clear that this is not going to
be easy. Uh I don't think this was ever
going to be easy. Now, the real question
is who who are they talking to? Like,
who is officially considered, okay, I
speak for Hamas, and if I say we're
going to disarm, we're actually going to
disarm. Is Hamas the only faction? It
seems like there are other factions now
that are rising up. uh have we created a
power vacuum if Hamas does disarm and so
maybe maybe Hamas actually does disarm
but then you get other militant groups
that rise up that it is a completely
destabilized area and so what's going to
be on the other side of this moment I
have no idea that's why I say you take
the win of getting the hostages back
>> take it one step at a time will the
disarming have to be forceful it comes
down to who we can trust so there are
people out there claiming to be Hamas
that are saying there's no way we are
not going to uh disarm. We're either
going to be fighters or martyrs. That's
it. Like full stop, end of story. Uh and
then you have anti Hamas
Gazin militias that are rising up. And
so even if you get rid of Hamas, like h
how will they break? like will they
become uh protectors of the peace or are
they just going to be the next violent
faction that rises up? Also, we'll have
a clip later on this from John
Mirshimer, but um does Israel even want
peace or is Israel like, "Oh god, we got
some more ethnic cleansing to do."
>> So, I think all of this is going to be
extremely complicated. I think that if
we're going to push this farther and
farther into prolonged peace, which is
about the most that I will give it, uh I
think Trump is going to have to swing a
lot of weight around. They're going to
have to be very credible threats in
terms of him saying they're going to
disarm or we are going to disarm them.
Now, I don't know what he means by that.
The he's not putting boots on the
ground. There's no way. So, the only
thing that I can There's no way. There's
no way. You want to talk about wildly
unpopular things, that would be insanely
unpopular. But what he will do,
>> I would imagine, is unleash
Netanyahu again to go back in and start
bombing them. So I think my
prognostication, so I'll plant a flag,
and I'm perfectly happy to be wrong, but
the flag that I will plant is when he
says we will unarm them, it's just we're
going to revert back. So um it's going
to be more of the same. The bombings
will continue until the morale improves.
like it it will just be that he'll sell
weapons to Netanyahu. Netanyahu will
continue to go and impound them.
Netanyahu will say things like, "I told
you like there's no way that we can
trust these guys." Um, so yeah, you're
you are in a death spiral of every time
that you look at the scenario, it's all
going to boil down to one simple thing.
Right now, Gaza is wildly unstable. It
is not a place that I would want to be
from. I mean, they they literally just
executed whatever seven people in the
town square with people surrounding
them, cheering, filming. Uh,
imagine that happened in like
downtown LA. Like that
the whole world would stop. That would
be the craziest thing ever.
>> Uh, so that is not a region that I would
consider. It certainly doesn't have
Western values. It is not a stabilized
region. But what it boils down to when
you look at it is did Israel create this
instability.
And so I don't know that we're ever
truly going to get the answer to that.
If we can't get
Israelis and Gazins to focus on an
economically uplifting future,
I I don't think you can win. It will
just keep going and going and going and
going. So uh yeah, we'll see. But the
only hammer that I think Trump is ever
going to use is Israel bombing Gaza
again.
>> Yeah. Well, this is uh Trump when
yesterday during press conference.
>> We have uh told them we won't disarm and
they will disarm and if they don't
disarm, we will disarm them and it'll
happen quickly and perhaps violently.
>> You say
>> but they will disarm. Do you understand
me?
>> Yes. You say
>> because you always everyone says oh well
they won't disarm.
>> They will disarm. And I spoke to Hamas
and I said, "You're going to disarm,
right?" Yes, sir. We're going to disarm.
That's what they told me. They will
disarm or we will disarm them. Got it.
Okay.
>> What's the deadline on that?
>> Here is the playbook that Trump is
running. And it is a playbook that has
its limits. It has its risks. It has its
dangers. There's no doubt. But I also
think that the reason that Trump has
been able to get this across the finish
line is that he tells people, "I will
drop a hammer on you if you don't do
what we just agreed and then when they
don't do what he agreed, he actually
drops a hammer on them."
>> So, uh, China, be cooperative. No. Cool.
Then we'll throw more tariffs on you.
Okay, we'll cooperate. Okay, I'll take
the tariffs off. People see it as Trump
always chickens out. I don't think
that's what it is. Trump is like uh
literally walks softly, carry a big
stick, though he does not uh walk
softly, but he certainly carries the big
stick. And every time that you say
something, he pulls the stick out to hit
you with it. And if you stop doing the
thing, then he puts the stick away. But
if you start doing it again, he pulls
the stick back out.
>> So, uh given that he dropped bunker
busters on Iran, I don't think it is
fair to say that Trump chickens out. I
think it is very fair to say that he
reminds you I have the stick and he'll
pull it out all the time, flash it
around, let people know and if people
back off then he puts it away. If they
don't then he starts hammering people.
Now the reactions that we get from the
stock market complicate things because
sometimes the reaction the thing that
makes him put the stick away is more the
uh reaction in the stock market than the
thing itself. But the reason he keeps
pulling it back out, and I think that he
really will put sanctions uh on China
for sure. The reason that he keeps
pulling the stick back out is he
understands that there is a deterrence
going on. Now, it's a balancing act
because uh you can only
>> um wield that stick so much before there
is secondary damage like the stock
market that exceeds the benefit that
you're getting from wielding the stick.
Um but if you don't have a deterrent,
then people are just going to walk over
you. This is why the Biden
administration was never going to be
able to get this stuff done, they were
pissing off the wrong people, namely
Saudi Arabia. And then they were not
willing to be forceful. And because they
weren't willing to be forceful, at least
not in the erratic, unpredictable way,
which has its advantages that Trump is.
>> Yeah. Um, let's jump over to Mir
Shimemer's comments um before we kind of
really break it down because I I while I
hear you that Trump can unleash Israel,
we already sent 200 troops there to
facilitate the peace deal. So, I can see
Trump trying to save face and turning it
up really like turning it up, sending in
Seal Team 6, doing some covert ops,
things like that. Um, but Mary Shmer
kind of gave us a new perspective that
it might be Israel themselves who really
don't want this peace deal.
I think you greatly underestimate,
peers, how deeply committed the Israelis
are to ethnically cleansing both Gaza
and West Bank and the West Bank. The
Israelis now have a situation where
there are roughly as many Palestinians
as there are Israeli Jews inside of
greater Israel. And this is an
unacceptable situation for most
Israelis. and they're completely
committed to ethnically cleansing Gaza
and then the West Bank. I think the
evidence is overwhelming on this. Now,
you say President Trump sees this as a
great opportunity to prove that he's a
statesman and he can bring peace to the
Middle East. I think in principle that
he'd love to do that, but I've written a
book with Steve Walt on the Israel
lobby. And there is absolutely no
question in my mind that if President
Trump gets rough with Prime Minister
Netanyahu, Netanyahu will turn to the
lobby and the lobby will force Trump to
back off. There's no way Trump is going
to get tough with Netanyahu if he
violates the ceasefire. I don't agree
with him on that. I think that's a
fundamental misread of Trump's
personality. Trump is for better or
worse. He will get tough with anybody if
he feels like you're damaging my
reputation on the world stage. Um so
given that Trump has already gone to
Netanyahu after the Qatari bombing and
said you're going to apologize live on
TV. You're going to apologize to the
Qatari government for the thing that you
did. Um now the real question is so Mir
Shimemer wrote a book about the Israel
lobby. So he certainly doesn't take a
favor favorable view of the Israel
lobby. He thinks they have wild and
undue influence on the US government.
>> Mhm.
>> Uh so we'll see how much influence the
lobby has on Trump, but I cannot imagine
a universe where Trump allows anybody to
cow him. Now, he's very strategic and so
he's not going to be um unduly clumsy
when it comes to people with deep
pocketbooks, but yeah, I I don't think
I don't think that Trump would let
Netanyahu
be the one to violate the peace
agreement. Now, I think he will again
leverage Netanyahu's
warpathic tendencies if he doesn't get
what he wants from Hamas.
>> Yeah. Um, listening to Mir Shimemer, I
I'm kind of agreeing because it seems
like Israel has nothing to lose except
PR because if the ceasefire is violated
and Israel goes Death Con 6 and just
kind of annihilates Gaza, completely
levels it all, kills everybody
ethnically cleansed, it's going to be
bad press. Like they the UN has tried to
call Netanyahu a war criminal. The
Western pressure and Tik Tok has tal has
talked how bad Israel is, but he's still
rolling with the punches. And I kind of
attribute that to Trump as well where
everybody's calling Trump a Nazi and all
these types of bad names, but he keeps
pushing, keeps going. I feel like
Netanyahu has a similar kind of
composure where it doesn't matter what
you guys say, I'm still going to do the
thing that I want to do. Um, do you
think that in it is beneficial to Israel
to kind of continue with the pursuit if
there is any cracks in the ceasefire or
should they try to maintain it and work
with Hamas even if it means kind of
taking back some of the the force that
they used previously?
Okay. So, uh, when I'm teaching
entrepreneurs, which I do all the time
in Impact Theory University, sign up
today. Uh, one of the things that I'm
always telling them is what is your
goal? So, it comes down to what Israel's
goal is. So, if Mirshimer is right and
Israel's real goal is, bro, we got to
ethnically cleanse these guys.
>> Uh, then yes, it would behoove them to
look for any reason to kick things back
off. They're going to be whispering in
Trump's ear. Look at these guys. Like,
they're violating. We got to go. You got
Hey, they're not disarming Trump, bro.
Like, you really going to let him clown
you like this? So, if that's their goal,
that is for sure how they're going to be
behaving privately and to some extent
publicly. Now, if their goal is the
long-term success of Israel, which is
going to need partners on the
international stage, they have to
understand that they're using what I'll
call a costic strategy. Now, when a
chemical is labeled costic, what it
means is it's going to burn you. So,
you've got to be very careful. Hey, this
acid will help you dissolve the paint
and so you can get down to the bare
metal and you can work your way back up.
Very useful. However, you're going to
need to wear like these industrial
strength gloves because if you don't and
it touches your skin, it's just going to
melt your skin. So, that's a strategy
that they're running right now is yes,
it's helping them in terms of if they
want to ethnically cleanse Gaza, then
yeah, like keep going. bomb bomb bomb.
>> However, the whole world is turning
against you. And the thing that I worry
that Israel is not being honest with
themselves about is what it looks like
when you raise entire generations around
the world to view Israel as the bad guy.
And so all of the benefit that they
built up over World War II. So like
people of my generation were just like,
"Yo, can you believe this horrific thing
happened to these guys? Of course they
have got their own state. Look at
everybody in the region attack them.
They're like this small group. They're
the underdog. Like, come on. We got to
root for these guys. Judeo-Christian
ethics. We've got such a tie. Like,
everything is wonderful. There are
allies, special relationship, go. Uh,
and then over time, the narrative has
really started to change. And this has
just pushed it over the edge. We're now
getting into just open anti-semitism.
you're getting into people around the
globe just completely flipping on Israel
to where now the people that don't
really think through it and they're just
going along with the crowd, they're
going to be anti-Israel instead of
pro-Israel. And since I think the vast
majority of people don't actually have a
well-formed opinion that are built from
the facts ground up, they're just going
with the flow. The flow is now going
against Israel. So, it might be an
effective shortterm strategy, but it's
not a good long-term strategy. So, um,
if I were Israel, I would be I would
long ago have started running a
different strategy where you have to
give them a chance now to regroup, to
prove that they want something that's
economically sound moving forward. And
at that point, if they go on the attack
again, then of course, you hit them
back. But, um, I'll I'll put a period
there. But there is this idea of total
war that uh is always fascinating and it
is how Israel gets caught in a gotcha.
>> Uh you can't just leave me. They can't
tease me.
>> We'll return to the show in just a
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get back to the show. All throughout
human history, when you went up against
an enemy, you uh you killed them until
they lost the will to fight. And
literally nothing stopped you. You just
kept going, kept going, kept going until
they were all dead or they were so
broken that they're like subjugation is
way better than what we're going through
now. And so people would give up. Okay.
So the the whole idea of total war,
there's no limitations. There's no pull
back. We're going to go until the other
side relents. It is an unconditional
surrender. Uh World War II, we drop
atomic bombs. Like we just keep
escalating and we're like, "Hey
everybody, chill." "Oh, you won't chill.
Bigger bomb, more deaths." "Hey
everybody, chill." "Won't chill. Cool.
Bigger bombs, more deaths." "Hey
everybody, [ __ ] nuclear bomb on the
first site. Are you done?" "No." "Cool.
We're going to the second site." And our
rhetoric was like, "Do you really want
more? And so we'll just keep going, but
you are going to unconditionally
surrender at some point." And so the
Japanese in World War II finally go,
"Cool. unconditional surrender. No one
ever lets from an international pressure
standpoint, nobody ever lets Israel play
the game of we're going all the way
until these guys unconditionally
surrender.
>> And uh so it's like from a moral
perspective, is anybody surprised?
Nobody should be surprised. Nobody wants
to see that. We see too much of this.
Starting in the Vietnam War, we could
just see everything. We were seeing it
in real time. And so Israel's caught up
in this uh thing where they are in the
middle of hostile neighbors, especially
West Bank and Gaza. And
>> from a moral standpoint, because we have
so much visibility, the world's just
like, "No, you can't go all the way."
Now, from the numbers perspective, I
don't think anybody argues that their um
combatant to civilian ratio is like the
best ever.
Uh, so in Iraq and Afghanistan, I
believe the US was something like 5 to
one. So for every, don't, please don't
quote me on that, somebody look it up.
But it isn't 2:1. And so we went in and
said, hey, we're trying to stabilize
this area. We're only trying to kill
combatants, but like, hey, somewhere
around five civilians are going to get
killed for every combatant that we
manage to take out. Israel's numbers are
2:1. And at 2:1, at least the last time
I checked this math, which was like
maybe 2 or 3 weeks ago, at 2:1 it was
higher than the numbers of total deaths
that Hamas was counting. So I doubt that
that's wrong. So
if they're doing like better civilian to
combatant ratio than basically any war
ever, then this becomes they're being
looked at through a different lens than
certainly we were in Iraq, than we were
in Afghanistan. Not that people were
clapping for us, but there wasn't the
like outrage that we see um with
Israelis trying to wage this war. And
there is a phrase that says no Jews, no
news. And just like the amount of
coverage on the uh the um Hamas
executing the Palestinians, imagine if
that had been footage of Israeli
soldiers executing Palestinians. Like
holy Jesus. So there is like this really
fascinating different response now that
the Israelis are perceived as the
bullies and they're no longer perceived
as the underdogs. And so that's where
like they they're stuck in this weird
position of the world just isn't going
to let them prosecute the war all the
way to an unconditional surrender. Now
on one hand that's awesome, right?
Because hey, that means we're stopping
wars.
>> Yeah. We're stopping like dead bodies
and things like that.
>> Yeah. Amazing.
On the other hand, it's like that's why
this conflict has drugg out for whatever
60 years, 70 years.
>> Yeah. It's interesting cuz as we were
kind of debating the ceasefire and
what's going on, the DSA, the Democratic
Socialist of America, released a
statement um in response to this.
>> Sorry, hold on one sec. Elena, Hamas
took credit for the video. Hamas has
verified the video themselves. So they
are executing people.
>> Yeah. Um that's right where I was going
next that um the Democratic Socialists
of America have released a statement
condemning the ceasefire vowing not to
stop until the liberation of Palestine.
They didn't say the destruction of
Israel. Um although this person who
tweeted it wants you to say that. And as
I was reading it, I was like, wait, for
somebody who just signed a ceasefire,
this sounds like increasingly
pessimistic. I thought with the
ceasefires, the hostage release, we
should at least have a moment of
celebration. Yes, we got one step
closer. I know there's a thousand steps
on this journey, but at least we took
step one and two.
>> Um, but as I read through this um
statement, and we'll link it for people
who want to see it. It's long. I don't
want to read it all out loud.
>> It they made it seem like, yeah, we'll
wait. It's a hurry up and wait
situation. like, okay, we we we
understand that they they announced
this, but we've seen them go back on
their word in the past, and we're not
going to stop until Palestine is
completely liberated and they have the
autonomy to have their own statehood.
So, I was like, "Okay, this seems like
this will create the scent." And then,
right flash a couple uh hours later,
that's when Hamas begins to execute
people that they call um they were
either working with Israelis or rival
gang factions that were trying to assert
control. So it seems like even on the
Hamas exclusively side, taking Israel,
taking Trump off the table, there's some
dissent in the leadership as opposed to
what the messaging is to the wider world
that hey, Palestine liberation is still
far away to within the city, people
aren't even agreeing who should be in
charge anymore. Um, do you think this
could be like a monster that eats itself
situation that hopefully it kind of
solves the problem quote unquote? So I
think the right way to understand this
moment is that you have on one side in
Israel you have a government that is a
wellorganized killing machine and then
on the Gaza side you have uh militants
who are perfectly happy to die in the
cause of fighting back and being able to
control their own destiny and run their
country the way that they want and will
kill their own people. We'll kill other
people. They will do it in the most
savage and horrible ways. And so once
you understand man as animal, man as
capable of the most grotesque and
horrifying violence the second that they
see the other person as the other, then
you can start mapping what's going on
here. If you think that you have two
sides that are both these just calm,
rational actors, everybody really wants
peace. It's just like a big
misunderstanding. We're in a Hatfields
versus a Mccoys tit fortat and we just
need somebody to simmer it down. You're
going to be very confused by how all of
this plays out. you have people with
competing desires that uh will kill and
just murder their way through the other
people to get what they want. And so
when people like the DSA and for those
asking the DSA is the democratic
socialists of America and you should
care because they are gaining in
popularity in America and they will
positively destroy this country and I
mean destroy in the Mao China way where
people are starving to death. It doesn't
happen overnight. And I'm not saying if
mom do gets elected the people in New
York are going to be starving. It's not
going to play out like that. I'm saying
it is a momentum in a direction that not
only can but does and has led to tens of
millions of people starving to death. So
people break bad, people do really
stupid things. And this goes all the way
to just terrifying proportions. Remember
in my lifetime, and while I'm old, I'm
not that old. in my lifetime, middle
schoolers were beating their teachers to
death in China at the request of the
head of state. So, uh don't lose sight
of that. Okay. So, going back to you've
got these two factions. They are uh they
both believe that they are speaking on
behalf of God, that they both have God
on their side, that they are supposed to
be doing these things. They view the
other as the other. That person is a
danger to their entire way of life, to
the mission that God has put them on. uh
and they're going to keep killing. I
just don't think people understand man
as a violent animal nearly enough. And
so if you think that they're just this
uh
poor underdog that's being bullied, then
you're going to be very confused by what
you see on the ground. Um they are
radicalized. Mhm.
>> They are
completely prepared to be violent. They
are prepared to kill the other side just
in the most blanket horrible ways you
can imagine. And now the question is
which side am I talking about?
>> Mhm.
>> Because I'm talking about both. So, uh
that's why this is going to be this is
going to be very messy. Now, I think
that the way that they each play the
game is different. So, Israel plays the
game through a political lens and uh
Hamas plays the game through a thug
lens.
>> I want to jump over to the uh China US
trade war for a second. Um because I
think that this is ever escalating and
there's been some crazy reports that are
coming out. There was a couple different
Chinese news and I'm just going to put
asterisks on these things because
Chinese media is stateowned. So, this is
like if Trump ran a news company and was
doing press releases. So, let's take all
of this with a grain of salt. Uh but in
September it was announced the numbers
just came out that China's exports beat
expectations and their imports was at
rose at the fastest pace since 2024. And
this also includes the 15% drop off from
its exports to the US due to t
terrorists and the trade war. On top of
that um it's been released that the
China trade surplus has surged to a
record 1.14 trillion in June. Um so
>> with the US or globally?
>> Globally just there. Yeah, globally with
there. Yeah. I mean, in fairness, they
force-fed countries to take their goods
when the US stopped importing because of
tariffs. And so, that's why all of like
Asia and South America were like, "Hey,
hey, hey, like, you're now just going to
crater all of our industries because
you're sending us all this stuff at a
much cheaper rate." Thi this is where
global economies get very complicated
because, well, Drew, isn't it good?
China's sending you things that are
cheap. You guys can now get your insert
good here. uh cheaper. Why would anybody
complain about that? They'll complain
about that because yes, you can buy
things cheaper, but a whole bunch of
your countrymen are going to get fired
because their businesses are all going
to fold because the government is no
longer protecting them from a country
like China, which will just literally
predatorily send you so many goods that
your market gets flooded, all of those
companies fold, all of that
institutional knowledge gets lost, and
now you're beholden on China in the same
way that when Walmart comes into an area
or this isn't so true anymore, but
Starbucks will go into an area, all the
local coffee shops will close. And so
that's the problem. So that number hides
uh the fact that China was like, "We're
just going to send you a bunch of cheap
stuff because we're no longer selling it
to America." And it caused massive
problems and will continue to cause
problems if they can't stop them from
doing it.
>> Yeah. And there's some second order
consequences that are happening now.
This is a a Trump tweet from Truth
Social yesterday. I believe that China
is purposely not buying our soybeans and
causing difficulty for our soybean
farmers is an economic hostile act. We
are considering terminating business
with China having to do with cooking oil
and other elements of trade as
retribution. As an example, we can
easily produce cooking oil ourselves. We
don't need to purchase it from China. Um
this is also on the backs of Trump
announcing a bailout for soybean farmers
locally after China walked away from the
market. We got they bought two billion
in soybeans last year. this year they
that number I think is at like zero
dollars ever since the trade war was
announced. Um so cold turkey didn't and
then they bought it from Argentina. We
talked about that last week.
>> Um
it seems like we were waiting to ice
China out and with recent reports
China's like yeah we're good like keep
keep doing your thing we're good.
>> You had an opportunity to ice China out
in like 93. You it doesn't exist
anymore.
>> Got you.
>> It hasn't existed for
20 years. I mean it's it is um look this
is a hard game and the reality is that
populism goes on the rise as a
reactionary force rather than a
predictive ahead of time force which
then it might actually be useful but um
yeah we th this is the nature of the
world. you let it go too far, the power
balance shifts. And
uh this is why one country never
dominates for long because I mean 250
years is a long time, but you'll get
>> the next person's going to get their
shot because these forces they they move
in waves and it just things change over
time. It's wild. Um, I I may not have
given you everything you want there, but
I have something on my mind that I
really want to share with people.
>> Right now is a psychologically very
difficult time, and I can only imagine
the level of anxiety that people feel.
So, one of the things that I want to
make sure that you feel supremely
confident when you come to watch this
show is we're going to be talking about
solutions. I hold myself accountable to
that in all the deep dives. I'm never
going to release a deep dive if I don't
have at least, hey, this may not be the
perfect way forward, but go do this. Um,
one, if you keep your head about you and
you're focusing on solutions, these are
the hard times that make strong men. So,
congratulations. On the other side of
this, you and your kids, you are going
to be stronger. Now, it's never fun to
go through something like this. I
totally understand that. Uh, but there
are solutions. We all will weather the
storm. You will get to the other side.
things will be awesome if you keep your
head about you. This doesn't need to be
unduly um disruptive to your life, but
there are going to be things you want to
do most importantly getting your
personal finances in order. Um that will
allow you to weather the storm better.
So try to view the things that are
happening not from inside the storm but
from outside. That's going to help you a
lot. Uh so for instance, if you are set,
this is why I screamed literally at the
beginning of the feed not to do things
on leverage. If you're not doing things
on leverage, don't even think about the
stock market in less than three or four
year increments. Okay? So you're make
sure that you can afford to do that.
That that is the key. Uh so that way
when stocks dip, it's like, oh,
whatever. It it becomes more of a
curiosity, an interesting way to look at
how economies move, what's going on
right now, what would have caused this,
what's going on with investor sentiment,
that kind of thing, rather than the
panic of, oh my god, how am I going to
make rent?
Again, never argue with what is true. So
it simply is true that right now the
government prints a lot of money. And
given that the government prints a lot
of money, you have to be in assets. I'll
leave it to you to figure out what's the
right asset for you. Uh it's very
difficult. No one can see the future,
least of all me. So, the best thing that
you can do is um try your best based on
historical evidence and your mapping of
cause and effect. Uh but there is a way
through this storm. Everybody that plans
and is diligent and is calm is going to
make it through this just fine. Uh but I
certainly understand psychologically the
the chaos just the vast majority of
humanity does not deal well with that
those fluctuations and that level of
chaos. Uh so just want to acknowledge I
get that people going through this. It's
not fun.
>> Your your calm resolve is is warranted
and I appreciate it. It reminds me of
Victor Gao. Um he's a Chinese um
professor and I have been stalking this
dude cuz I feel like you would love a
conversation with him but I cannot find
his like actual real life information.
But this was a UK interview he did at
the beginning of the trade war when we
first kicked off and I just his resolve
is a little bit different from American
sensibilities. So I just wanted to kind
of hear from the Chinese perspective
>> that in this scenario to use your
metaphor the US has the bigger gun and
so China ends up having more to lose
from this trade war doesn't it you know
it can't sustain the loss of 15% of its
export market i.e. what you export to
the US.
>> Not at all. China is fully prepared to
fight to the very end because the world
is big enough that the United States is
not the totality of the market in the
world. So if the United States wants to
go in that direction of completely
shutting itself out of the China market,
be my guest.
>> Yeah. And China will lose the US market,
which as I've said is 15%.
>> We don't we don't care. China has been
here for 5,000 years most of the time.
There was no United States and we
survived. And if the United States wants
to bully China, we will deal with the
situation without the United States.
>> I love it. Th this is the exact attitude
that America has to have, which is, hey,
love China, wish them well. Uh, be
awesome. The more we can work together,
that'd be wonderful. But the reality is
we're not going to allow ourselves to be
beholden to China, which we have done,
by the way. I there are people in my
life who I love very much uh that just
don't have their eyes open to the
reality of what it means to be beholden
to China. And this is why China saying
hey you know those rare earth elements
uh we're going to put restrictions on
them and that's basically them saying
we're going to restrict your entire
modern way of life.
>> That the fool's errand that it was to
globalize such that we don't control our
own supply chains is wild. It is wild.
>> It sounds like we gave ourselves the the
rope to hang ourselves. Like like if we
go back 90 I think if we flash back to
the '9s and we had a chance, I think
somebody would like slap Bill Clinton
and be like, "Hey, hey, don't sign that.
Don't sign that." Like
>> Yeah. 100%.
>> You know what I mean?
>> So you The reality is that being able to
partner with China is glorious. So
amazing. Not only did it help them pull
their own people out of poverty, which
is an unmitigated good and everybody
should love it the most. Um but you
really do have to be very thoughtful
about what are the things that we know
we would never want to be outside of our
country.
>> Um this is what were you you were asking
me about oh whether I would interview
Myron Gaines or not. And my response to
you was I need a value that I establish
so that when you bring me people like
that I'm like what is the value that I
run this through? And we needed that
same thing with trade on a global stage.
Like what is the value? Is the value
that America has to remain dominant? Is
it that America has to remain sovereign?
Like but we need some sort of value like
that that there are going to be five or
six industries where it's like we
absolutely or maybe there's 25 but we
absolutely must control our destiny in
steal microchips like whatever whatever
whatever. And so from the perspective of
I get it would be cheaper to send this
stuff overseas. However, we're going to
need to give some economic incentives uh
to make sure that some percentage of
this always remains here. It's you
probably don't want it to be 100% and
trying to make it 100% makes you purely
isolationist. That's not the game that
you want to play. Uh but the super fast
and loose of everything can go away has
created all kinds of problems. And it it
does work just fine until something bad
happens and then you realize, oh my god,
not only am I driving without a seat
belt, I'm actually on the hood of the
car.
>> And now if we get in an accident, I'm a
thousand% dead.
>> Yeah. I'm getting like chicken or egg
vibes from this whole thing because I
think when we made the deals that we
made, we thought they were going to lead
to other outcomes and then
>> but they do for a while. The thing is
like I don't want people to be confused.
Globalism was awesome. So the '9s were
rad, the early 2000s were rad. Uh even
even if you don't take an American
stance and you just say, "Dude, China
stopped killing its own people, pulled
more people out of poverty faster than
anyone ever in all of human history." It
it is really really to have been on that
timeline is very extraordinary. It is a
beautiful If you're pro-h humanity,
which I very much am, it is a beautiful
thing to see. And so like I love it the
most. I love uh human life being saved.
It's just incredible. So it really was
great. It just you can't be in this all
or nothing camp. Like you really do have
to have limitations. You have to have
borders. Um uh boundaries on things. So
this is why like one of the things that
we're rediscovering as a nation is oh
yeah like we do have to have boundaries.
And what we're discovering is, and it it
gets tricky to talk in these words, but
these are the real words. So, I'm going
to keep talking even though I know it
creates confusion, but when you feminize
culture where it's permissibility all
the time, it's compassion first and
there's no sense of like something can
break bad or somebody might try to
manipulate or take advantage of me. Uh,
and you just like, no, whoever's
struggling the most, give, give, give,
give, give, give, give. Um when that is
your leading energy which it has been
for quite a while now in the west you
start seeing the problems that we're
having now where you should have
boundaries you should have borders you
should have restrictions you do need
discipline and when you have those two
things in combination where we love and
want to extend compassion and help along
with but not too far and we also have to
make sure that we're fed first and you
know the whole idea of first I fill my
cup up and then whatever flows over then
of course I'm going to want to so you
get to other people, but my cup must
overflow first. Like those kinds of
attitudes we're going to find we have to
bring back. And so, do I wish that
humans were better at finding a balance?
A thousand%. Are we? No. Um, this
reminds me of this graph that I seen
floating around X. I don't know if
you've seen this one where like kind
lies make your society actually
accurate, acutely better, but
chronically worse about how kind lies
kind lies and then over time you kind of
fall off. I know a lot of times we see
it in like relationships or with
friends. They're like, "Yeah, you look
fine. Yeah, you look fine. Yeah, you
look fine." And then three years later,
that person gained 80 1,800 pounds or
something like that. Now it's
intervention. So there there is a
certain point where we have to be
honest, I think, with us as a society to
say, "Hey, we need to make some drastic
moves that might not be profitable
today. We need to plant some trees for
the next generation. We need to start."
And I think that's the one thing that I
will call myself envious of China in the
sense that they're like, "Oh yeah, we
got time." Like, "Oh, yeah. Four years,
8 years, 12 years, it doesn't matter.
5,000 years." Like once he said that,
that immediately kind of ejected me out
of the moment of like, "But what about
ICE on our streets? That doesn't matter.
25 years from now, what the world's
going to look different, 300 years from
now, what are we going to do? What kind
of country do we want to be?" And I
think America has lost that grander
vision, the one that, you know, George
Washington had like, hey, 250 years from
now, we're going to be the number one
like country. I think they did that
right going forward. But I think too
often we're now looking back as opposed
to like, okay, what's the next 250 going
to look like for us? What's the next 500
going to look like for us? And how do we
go in the right direction from there?
>> Yeah. And listen, it works just fine
when you actually allow people to be
free. where it starts breaking down is
you don't have a long-term vision, your
politicians are divided, and you're um
robbing people of freedom. Like, if you
let people be um selfish and do their
thing, obviously on rails, I'm not a
nogo government guy. M
>> you do want some limitations. But when
you let people be free and you let them
pursue the things that they think are
right, when they think, "Oh, this could
be a huge opportunity for me to get
rich." Then we start innovating and we
innovate like crazy and it becomes
absolutely incredible. Where it becomes
a problem is where you have all of that
division and you start trying to clamp
down on people. It's then you break like
the one thing you had going for you that
made up for the fact that we're not
coordinating for a hundred years, 200
years. We're like, "No, no, no. Just go
do whatever you think is the right thing
to build right now in this moment."
>> Uh it works in the long run when the
marketplace is able to actually
function. But when you distort the
marketplace so much by manipulating the
currency, by picking winners, uh
regulatory capture, you get
nothing but distortions and that we're
getting dangerously close to that.
>> When I first seen this, I was like, "All
right, this is stupid. Like, this is not
really a thing." And I'm talking about
Trump's third term. And then
>> this is crazy.
>> And then I started seeing the merch
sales, the Trump 2028 hats. I was like,
"Okay, they're trolling. This is like
not really a thing." Like this is
stupid. And now I'm hearing Steve Bannon
talk on three different shows saying the
exact same thing. And for those that
don't know, Steve Bannon is the
architect behind Trump's first run in
the first place,
>> who went to prison, by the way,
>> for uh refusing to like I think they
held him in contempt.
>> Yeah. Refusing to testify at the J6
committee. Uh so it it seems like with
this there is something happening here
and they are really pushing for this. Um
I want to start with the Cuomo interview
first cuz Quomo even says like, "Hey,
you're a smart guy. I'm not going to
call you dumb for saying this. So, where
is the actual behind? So, I I I'll let
you guys hear from Steve himself.
>> Well, a man like this comes along once
every century if we're lucky. We've got
him now. He's on fire. And uh I'm a huge
supporter. Want to see him again in
2028.
>> And obviously, anybody who uh doesn't
like what you say, but judges at a
function of a lack of intelligence,
doesn't know anything about you. I don't
make that mistake. You're a smart guy.
Oh, you know he's term limited. How do
you think he gets another term?
We're working on it. I think we'll have
I think we'll have a couple of
alternatives. Let's say that.
>> We'll we'll see. We'll see what the
definition
term We'll see what the definition of
term limit is.
>> All right. Well, so you're talking about
litigating this issue because I don't
want people to listen to our interview
and say Bannon's cooking up an
insurrection. Bannon is cooking up. You
know what I mean? I want I want people
to get a straight take on where your
head is. What do you suggest? Chris, as
you know, I've had I've had greater long
shots than this when we we uh supported
President Trump after the election. I
realize you don't believe the election
in 2020 was stolen. We do. We fervently
believe that when President Trump we
went back to Mara Lago on January 20th,
2021, he was the longest of long shots
>> to return to the White House. We said
that day in our podcast and doubled down
having President Trump's back that he
was coming back not just to win the
primary, he would win the White House.
and we had to get organized and and
drive that victory also start working on
all the policies what's called project
2025 or the America first policy
institute but all those different think
tanks that started putting in the
policies so much power scenes that's
what's wild that right now these guys
are trying to figure out a way to skirt
around the constitution play the bill
clip because this is exactly how I feel
>> I didn't do it for Donald Trump I did it
to stand up for the constitution ution.
That committee was totally rigged and I
didn't mind.
>> I brought a copy tonight.
Here it is. The Constitution. Can I read
a passage to you? Here we go.
>> Amendment 22. No person shall be elected
to the office of the president more than
twice. And yet you keep talking about
Trump's third. Maybe you should hum
this. Here.
>> Bill Maher is good at this.
I'll get I'll get you to sign it
backstage and underline. Look, President
Trump didn't bring up running for a
third term. Myself and others brought up
running for a third term. President
Trump is going to run for a third term.
And President Trump is going to be
elected again on the afternoon of
January 20th of 2029. He's going to be
president of the United States.
>> Okay. But but the thing I just read in
there,
it seemed like there was no wiggle room
there. It seemed like it was just, you
know, eight or 10 words. It said only
two times. I we have a a team of people
that are working a team.
>> How can a team do something about that?
How how what I don't care if the team is
12 trillion people. The words are still
the words.
>> Bill, every day in federal courts right
now in federal courts, there's 120
lawsuits on what President Trump's doing
for his article 2 right on the unified
executive theory. He's chief executive.
He's commander-in-chief and he's chief
magistrate and chief law enforcement
officer. There's 100 and they're running
to court every day to sue President
Trump. All because the interpretation of
this the interpretation of this is open
for interpretation.
>> How could it be open? Could I have it
back?
>> How could it I'm
>> Yeah. So he's really banging his drum.
>> No, no, no. You You got to let him read
it again. Like when when he goes through
this this is how I feel.
>> You would agree he's a person. Okay.
Shall be elected. He was elected to the
office. That's the office of the
president more than twice. twice as once
and then another time.
>> I I I don't I don't see what the team is
find.
>> Okay, which is I will disagree.
>> So he says it in the first interview
that we watched. It was like we'll see
what the definition of term is or
something like that.
>> And I'm just like, oh my god, these
people do not learn their lesson. So
this crazily enough would not be the
first time that we had somebody serve
three terms.
uh it has happened before, which is why
we put in the amendment because we
realized, oh, they're just going to keep
running. So, man, it was always sort of
a gentleman's understanding that nobody
would run for more than two terms. And
once they did it, then they realized we
have to enshrine this. We did enshrine
it. So, if they're able to get a
constitutional amendment passed, cool. I
stand by. Obviously, there is a way to
amend the constitution. We want there to
be a way to amend the Constitution, but
there like there are things that are
interpreted by the court where it's
like, okay, admittedly like this one's
maybe not as clear as we want. Like take
the Second Amendment for instance,
>> uh for a well-armed militia or whatever,
there's a lot to talk about with that.
Like, does that mean then that the
average person could just have a gun?
Like I get when people like, okay,
there's a debate to be had.
>> What's the definition of armed? What's
the definition of militia? Was it
>> a thousand%. So now it's a like this one
is pretty clear. So this feels like
people are trying to skirt it. I don't
think people are being honest about why
we have term limits. The whole structure
of the US government was to stop power
from acrewing too much. Right? There's
so many quotes from founding fathers
about this idea of like hey we are very
much aggressively recognizing that
humans tend towards tyranny that power
corrupts. Absolute power corrupts.
Absolutely. And as I if you let a
monarch happen, what what ends up
transpiring is over time that power just
solidifies, solidifies, solidifies. And
so you've got to like keep mixing it up.
This is why I think deep state is the
right word. I think that it is
problematic that we let the power
accumulate in all of those ancillary
positions and we're not being honest
about what causes that problem. And so
the longer one person is in that
position of power, the you just really
begin to crystallize whatever issue you
have and then you get a desperate or you
certainly run the risk. Everybody wants
a benevolent dictator and very rarely do
we get one. And just because the first
ki