Kind: captions
Language: en
In fiscal year 2023, federal agencies
reported $236
billion in improper payments. And that's
not a one-off. In fiscal year 2024,
after massive postcoid reductions, 16
federal agencies alone still reported an
estimated
billion dollar in improper payments.
Since fiscal year 2003, cumulative and
proper payment estimates across the
federal government are nearly $3
trillion.
That's 8% of the entire federal deficit.
Pretty soon, it's going to start being
real money. In fact, according to the
Government Accountability Office, the $3
trillion in improper payments we can
account for are just a subset of the
total problem. The real number is almost
certainly much higher. But even if it's
not much more, that still accounts for
roughly 10% of the entire national
deficit. That is the definition of gross
incompetence. But here we are. And the
madness does not stop there. The Social
Security Administration's Office of
Inspector General found approximately
6.5
million Social Security numbers belong
to people. Get ready. 112 years or
older. You want to know the real number?
It's 80. Not 80 million or 80,000. It's
just 80. That's 81,000
times more than the reality. It's
actually more. I'm rounding down.
[music] That's five orders of magnitude
of discrepancy. That's so far off its
comedy routine. It is as if the
government is designed to make fraud
easy and race us towards bankruptcy.
>> [music]
>> To put it plainly, we are getting
robbed. And not by scammers overseas, by
our own government. Elon and Doge tried
to warn us, but what they got in return
was firebomb Tesla dealerships and
uniart bipartisan support for continued
spending, no matter how much waste or
fraud there is inherent in the system.
Now, I want to stare directly at that
because it's never hopeless. All of this
is fixable if we can understand what's
happening, call it out, and map out a
plan. Right now, the machine is rigged
to ignore, if not facilitate, waste,
fraud, and further destructive political
outcomes. But it doesn't have to be. All
right, guys. Buckle up because this one
gets ugly. But salvation awaits at the
end. Parts one and two may be the valley
of despair, but by the end you're going
to know exactly what's going on and what
to do about it. And as GI Joe taught us
all, knowing is half the battle. So,
welcome to part one. What's really going
on and why? In 2022, the federal House
and Senate election cycle cost
approximately 9.5 billion.
The median amount raised by a senator
running for reelection in 2024 was
approximately $11 million. That's
roughly $15,000 a day. Almost 93% of the
members of the 117th Congress had a
leadership pack that collectively raised
$243
million
just between January of 21 and December
of 22. According to the Campaign Finance
Institute, fewer than 50 families supply
the majority of mega donor funding in US
elections, a closed feedback loop of
money, policy, and media reach. And in
2023 alone, federal lobbying topped $4
billion.
This is the tragedy that has turned
Washington DC into a swamp of entrenched
political interests and has turned
governing into a game of
self-preservation
rather than public service. And that's
why 1th3 of senators have held office
longer than the median American marriage
lasts. Politics is a business and its
product is power. And baby, business is
booming. As James Bernham pointed out in
his seinal work, the Makyave of Eliens,
Defenders of Freedom, every group, no
matter how big or small, will create an
elite ruling class. Burnham calls this
the iron law of oligarchy. I created a
whole video about it, which you can
watch right here. But for now, suffice
it to say that Burnham makes a very
compelling case for the fact that every
organization, no matter how idealistic
it starts, eventually serves the people
running it, not the people it was
actually designed to help. Sound
familiar? The government that was once
for the people by the people has become
a giant parasite, stealing our money
through inflation, making it impossible
for the young to get on the property
ladder and forcing us to pay our
hard-earned money towards the insane
amount of interest we have on our insane
amount of debt. Left alone, that's just
how things go. The longer any
organization runs, the more energy goes
into keeping power instead of wielding
power to help those paying into the
system. Hence, the massive immune
response to Doge, whose sole function
was to reduce government waste, fraud,
and abuse at a time when the country is
literally careening towards bankruptcy
and must, as a matter of survival, find
a way to balance the budget. To stay in
office, you need two things: votes and
the money to get those votes. Once you
start looking at the government's
relentless deficit spending through that
lens, it all starts to make sense. The
deficit spending is not designed to help
people, and it most certainly doesn't,
at least not in the long run. It is,
however, designed to help politicians
get reelected. Make no mistake, both the
left and the right will shovel
subsidies, grants, and contracts towards
donors and districts that can bankroll
them. They will throw the borders open,
outlaw showing ID to vote, keep dead
people on the social security roles, and
inflate census counts with illegal
immigrants just to stay in power.
They will happily drive all of us off a
fiscal cliff as long as they get to be
in the driver's seat as we go over the
edge. And they will rebel against
anything that threatens the flow of
money. Now, with all of that in mind,
let's look at Musk's recent claims on
the Joe Rogan experience of rampant
fraud and waste in the government.
The
>> the scam level here is is
so staggering. Um,
so there are there are hundreds of
billions of dollars in of of transfer
payments from from the federal
government to the states. Um, those
transfer payments uh the the states
self-report what those transfer payment
numbers should be. So California and New
York and Illinois lie like crazy uh and
say and and say that this these are all
legitimate payments. Well, these days
they I think they have they're even
admitting that they they literally want
uh hundreds of billions of dollars for
illegals. Um but uh but for a while
there they're trying to deny it to
speedrun Elon's argument. It goes
something like this. The whole game is
to gain and retain political power. You
do that by increasing your state's
headcount because the census is coming
in 2030. And a state's congressional
seats and presidential electoral votes
are determined not by the number of
citizens you have, but merely by the
number of people physically present in
your state at the time of the census.
The more immigrants, illegal or
otherwise, the better. But you have to
do something to gain and retain the
immigrants. And that thing is to make
government assistance available by any
means, even fraud. But you have to get
into the official system somehow to make
things work. That's where the Social
Security Administration comes in. But so
let me tell you how the scam works. It's
it's a bank shot. So the Social Security
Administration database is used as the
source of truth by all the other
databases that the government uses. So
even if they stop the payments on the
social security administration database
like unemployment insurance, small
business administration, student loans
all check the social security
administration database to say is this
is this a legitimate alived person and
uh and if the social security database
will say yes, this person is still alive
even though they're 200 years old. Um
but forgets to mention that they're 200
years old. It just says it just returns
uh uh when when the computer is queries
it says yes this person is live and so
then they're able to exploit the entire
rest of the government ecosystem.
So fake then you get fake student loans
then you get fake unemployment insurance
then you get fake medical payments
>> and this doesn't have to be tied to an
individual where where there's an
address where you can check on this
person. No, if you did do if just did
any check at all, you would stop this.
>> People take advantage of fraudulent or
erroneous social security numbers to get
inside the system. Once inside the
system, the person can get access to a
whole host of government assistance
programs, Medicaid, EBT, student loans,
unemployment, and more. Potentially
hundreds of billions of dollars are
siphoned via this indirect bankshot, as
Elon calls it. The fraud and waste is
coming from both professional criminals
who exploit the holes in the system, but
also much of the misappropriated money
is the states themselves trying to
redirect federal dollars to fund things
like migrant housing and luxury hotels
that the average American couldn't
afford.
>> So, what's going on right now is they
have been funding these people. They've
been giving them EBT cards. They've been
giving them Medicaid. They were taking
hotels like four and five star hotels
like the Roosevelt Hotel being the
classic example. Um was they were
sending I think $60 million a year to
the Roosevelt Hotel to uh which all it
did was was house illegals.
>> Again, the goal is to gain and retain
power by drawing in immigrants with open
borders and financial assistance. But
you can't just get them here. You've got
to create a path for them to vote. This
is being done in two ways. First, in
some states like New York and
California, lawmakers have made it
illegal to ask for ID to vote. Not that
it's just not required. That would be
bad enough. It's actively illegal to ask
to see someone's ID when they're trying
to vote. And according to Elon, that's
not the only type of fraud being
perpetrated on the American people.
There's also the case of what he calls
zombie payments. Because what we found
was that there were tens of billions
maybe hundreds of billions of dollars.
There were zombie payments. So there
like somebody had approved a payment uh
uh somebody in the government approved a
payment um and uh some recurring payment
and um they retired or died or changed
jobs and no one turned the money off.
So the money would just keep going out
and and it's a pretty rare
>> go where
>> to to
a a company or an individual u and it's
a pretty rare company or individual who
will complain that they're getting money
that they should not get.
>> Once a recurring payment starts, they
rarely stop. Billions of dollars quietly
just drain away. And this is coming from
both sides of the aisle. This is a big
part of the reason that Elon got so much
push back from both the Republicans and
the Democrats when he was attempting to
reduce government spending. Both sides
are benefiting from the flow of money
and using it to help them get reelected
so no one wants it to stop. The entire
basis for the government shutdown is
that um is that the Trump administration
correctly does not want to send massive
amounts of like hundreds of billions of
dollars uh to fund uh illegal immigrants
in the blue states or in all the states
really. Um, and so the and the Democrats
want to keep the the money spigot going
to incent uh illegal immigrants to come
into the US who will vote for them.
>> According to Musk, a state like
California would go bankrupt if it
wasn't for the money it manages to pull
from the federal government.
>> New York and California would be
bankrupt without uh without the massive
fraudulent federal payments that go to
those states to pay for illegals.
>> How would they be bankrupt because of
that? uh they wouldn't be able to
balance their state budgets and they
can't issue currency like the Federal
Reserve can.
>> We'll return to the show in a moment,
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use case for free. Despite having the
fifth largest economy in the world, if
it were counted as a country, California
can't even break even. That is how much
waste there is even at the state level
which then puts additional strain on the
federal government which then forces
them to print more money which hurts the
poor and middle class the most and not
by a little it hurts them more by a lot.
It is the very reason we have such wild
wealth inequality and effectively two
separate economies. The have assets and
the have nots. They're living in
different worlds right now. And I want
to remind everyone right now, neither
the Republicans nor the Democrats are
fighting to stop the flow of fraud and
abuse. In fact, my one beef with Elon is
that he paints this as more of a
partisan issue than it probably is. He
claims 80% of the abuse is coming from
the Democrats. But I haven't heard
anything other than vibes to back that
up. But even if in the end that ends up
being true, I still think it is critical
for people to understand that the big
beautiful bill is a disaster that will
bankrupt this country and the Democrats
want to make it even worse. Now, that's
not an endorsement of the Republican
party because they're keeping it a
little tighter. It's a condemnation of
them both. The reality is that the scams
will continue because they work for
everyone in power. Democrats defend
their sanctuary cities, welfare
pipelines, and NGO networks. And
Republicans guard their subsidies,
defense contracts, and donorfunded
projects, different routes to the same
destination of self-preservation and
continued rule. This is what Burnham was
warning about when discussing the iron
law of oligarchy. Every organization
once entrenched will bend towards
protecting its own continuity.
Washington isn't malfunctioning. It is
following the laws of political physics
where everyone is just trying to stay in
office. The people who could fix the
fraud are the same ones benefiting from
it. So, good luck. They can't turn it
off without starving their own
reelection machines. And getting elected
and reelected is the entire point. So,
when Musk describes the bankshot, he's
not just exposing a computer glitch.
He's showing us the operating system of
modern politics. a self-feeding cycle
where fraud, waste, and dependency
are the lubricant that keeps the gears
of power turning. If we do not balance
the budget by any means necessary, we
will create a catastrophe for everyone.
It is not kind or humane to bleed the
country dry of her economic resources
that will not spare the poor. It allows
you to pretend for a bit that you don't
have a problem, that there is a
financial asteroid racing towards Earth
and it will smash into all of us if we
don't do something dramatic immediately.
So, welcome to part two. Why this is so
dangerous, especially right now.
Compounding interest and deficit
spending has now pushed the national
debt over $ 38 trillion and climbing.
That is a burden of over $275,000
per taxpayer. Roughly 25% of all federal
revenue will go to paying interest on
the debt in less than a decade. A
reality we are unlikely to survive
economically. According to the 2025 CBO
budget outlook, mandatory spending plus
interest on the debt already eats a full
77%
of the entire federal budget, leaving
just 23%
for everything else from defense to
infrastructure. For anyone who thinks
that we can tax our way out of this,
please consider this. For every dollar
of new tax revenue we have generated
since 2019, Washington has added a $158
in new spending. We do not have a
revenue problem. We are already the
richest country on earth. We have a
spending problem. If no matter how much
you make, you spend more, you can be as
rich as you want and still go broke.
According to the Social Security
Trustees report, Social Security's trust
fund will run dry by 2033.
Stop for a second. That's only 7 years
from now. And it will force an automatic
cut of nearly 25% to all Social Security
benefits. Imagine being an elderly
person and going from I can barely make
ends meet to would you like fries with
that? That's what a 25% reduction means.
Despite the largest tax receipts in
history, the US government still runs
deficits larger than any preandemic
wartime period, than any wartime period.
And people still present tax increases
as the solution. Drug addicts don't need
more money to stay out of trouble. They
need to stop taking drugs. America
doesn't need more tax revenue. We need
to stop spending more than we make. The
level of absurdity has hit parody
levels. But it isn't parody. We are
letting our politicians rob us blind. In
fact, we are voting for it.
Let's look at this through an analogy.
Imagine a machine that prints money. Not
fake looking monopoly cash. I'm talking
these look like real dollars that the
whole planet accepts. Whoever controls
that machine is going to be the richest
and most powerful person on earth. They
can buy favors, buy votes, delay
consequences, paper over mistakes, and
spend way more than they make because
they can just print more money.
That's Washington's literal superpower.
They have that machine. We have the
world's reserve currency, and that gives
us the ability to legally counterfeit
our own money. But here's the iron law
of economic gravity. Printing money
makes it less valuable. And even printed
money carries interest that has to be
paid. You can dilute your currency and
you can rack up the debt. But you can't
avoid the allconsuming
power of compounding interest.
Eventually, it will eat your entire
federal budget. And even if you
confiscate 100% of the wealth of
billionaires or everybody quite frankly,
it only buys you a year or two. Not to
mention that would permanently kill the
goose that lays the golden eggs. You get
one nice meal, then you starve to death.
So, we are now caught in this weird
double whammy trap. If we allow fraud
and waste to continue and we don't
balance the budget, we have to keep
borrowing and printing to fund the gap.
But if we keep borrowing and printing to
fund the gap, we eventually break the
confidence in the dollar and then we
can't borrow or print any more money
because no one will buy the new dollars
and that makes them instantly worthless.
This happens to currencies around the
world all of the time. Most people just
quietly assume this can't happen to us,
but it can and [music] will. It's math.
Even after the post-pandemic cleanup,
some agencies still admitted to $162
billion dollars of improper payments in
fiscal year 2024 alone. That's bigger
than many cabinet departments, and this
is every year, and it's only a subset of
the full problem. Medicaid and Medicare
alone rack up a hundred billion dollars
plus in improper payments annually while
demographics are pushing costs up and
worker to retiree ratios down. So right
now every wasted dollar is another
dollar we have to borrow. This is why
the bankshot fraud problem matters so
much. Why immigration matters so much.
Why benefits have to be means tested and
why we must assess the government
through the lens of a bunch of people
who will do whatever and spend whatever
[music] it takes to gain and retain
power. They all just want to get
reelected.
They'll promise free healthcare, free
buses, more tax breaks, extra subsidies,
etc. As if no one has to pay for
anything. But we pay for all of it in
the form of wealth inequality.
It's a simple mechanism. The only way to
shield yourself from the ravages of
money printing caused inflation is to
own assets. And 10% of Americans own 93%
of all the assets. Not because they're
mean, but because they understand the
stock market and or they got into
property before homes just got too damn
expensive like they are right now due to
horrible protectionist government
policies designed to help politicians
get reelected. When political survival
depends on pleasing voters and funders,
you build benefits that start instantly,
recur automatically, and are politically
toxic to turn off. Recurring payments
without hardend dates, transfers that
scale with headcount, grants with fuzzy
purpose fields, state passroughs where
the state self-reports the need, and the
federal government automatically wires
the cash with little to no oversight.
That's where we are right now. You would
also see resistance to obvious fixes
like mandatory appropriation codes,
required comment fields, prepayment
checks, auto suns setting, recurring
payments unless reverified. You'd see
that resistance because those controls
interrupt the cash loop that helps
incumbents. Both parties face the same
physics. You need votes and you need
money to get those votes. Benefits
create loyalty. Contracts create
donations. Transfers create grateful
districts. Remove any of that and you've
just volunteered to be the next ex
official. And that's why we have the
system that we have. And for all the
reasons previously discussed, our
current system creates an intolerable
amount of wealth inequality and
intolerable levels of wealth inequality
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And now, let's get back to the show. So,
the question becomes, how do you escape
a system where the political class is
addicted to free money and purchases
votes so that you can actually avoid the
calamity racing towards us? Let's answer
that right now in part three, the
solution to our woes. According to the
Department of Labor, the pandemic
unemployment assistance program overpaid
by an estimated $191
billion
and only 11 billion has been clawed
back. In fiscal year 2023 alone,
improper Medicaid payments totaled $50.3
billion and 82% of that was due to
insufficient documentation. Same issue
with Medicare. 51.7 billion in improper
payments largely due to bad
documentation or medical necessity
errors. The good news, Medicaid fraud
control units recovered 1.4 billion in
fiscal year 2024. And that's about $346
back per $1 spent. And according to the
Government Accountability Office, the
Treasury's do not pay system has flagged
or stopped 22 billion dollars in
potentially improper payments since its
creation simply by crosschecking death
records and eligibility files before
money leaves federal accounts. Now, we
need to focus on cleaning up the Social
Security Administration's database to
ensure there are fewer avenues for abuse
and fraud. Now, the path that we're on
right now is a dead end. But we only
accelerate our demise if we embrace
hopelessness. The leaks are measurable.
The fraud and waste is trackable. And
there really are plenty of solutions out
there if we can only muster the
political will to apply them. So, here's
how we do it in four steps. Step one,
focus on identity verification and data
hygiene. The social security database,
the one that every other agency relies
on, is full of bad data. At least 6.5
million SSNs belong to people who are
dead or haven't been born yet. Some
tallies put the number of bad entries at
close to 20 million. I've used really
conservative numbers here to show that
even at the low end, the problem is
financially disastrous. Even if the true
number is the lowest end of the
spectrum, so many improper and
fraudulent payments flow from bad
entries in this database that has a
matter of priority. We have to clean it
up. To that end, we fund a one-time all
hands cleanup effort. The SSA must
reconcile its records with every state's
death registry, the VA, the IRS, and
anyone else who keeps vital data.
Additionally, anything that can't be
automatically verified using database
queries or AI should be manually
verified. Then we publish the results
every month on a national accuracy
scorecard, celebrate the wins, and
pressure the government to find
solutions to the stubborn gaps in data
integrity. Once the data is clean, we
lock it in as a realtime prepayment
feed. Every agency has to check the
updated alive status before they send
money out the door. And any new
recurring payment, social security,
unemployment, disability, etc. should be
set to automatically expire after 12
months unless someone reverifies the
eligibility. If the payment parameters
are unable to be reverified, the payment
doesn't go out. Simple as that. We can
no longer afford to default pay in the
face of uncertainty. I understand the
complications that that introduces, but
they pale in comparison to the
complications of going broke. Step two,
we must create total transparency and AI
powered payment controls. When you've
got the clean data, you've got to keep
up with reporting and ensure AI enforced
guard rails are clamped down on the
actual flow of cash. Every payment
should have an appropriation code and a
purpose line. No blank fields, no
miscellaneous, no unspecified. If a
payment doesn't have a reason attached
to it, it does not get sent. The goal
has to move from maximum convenience to
maximum transparency and accountability.
We live in a digital age for God's sake.
We need to stop pretending like we are
carving stone tablets and we can't
easily track and reconcile this stuff
with technology. We can. We also need to
end the ridiculous approach of pay now,
chase later. That approach has cost the
US hundreds of billions of dollars a
year in improper payments and fraud. If
the system is struggling to keep up,
update the system. We literally had one
of Earth's most effective technologists
in the White House as a special
government employee. And rather than
embracing his suggestions, we fought him
tooth and nail like a bunch of rich kids
who think daddy will never run out of
money. It is selfdestructive.
And here's the good news. AI works. When
the Pentagon's travel card audit found
over $103 million in questionable
charges, the automated transaction
monitoring was turned on, and it helped
claw back 84 million. California also
had a big win with AI, using it to flag
duplicate unemployment claims, which
blocked roughly $20 billion in suspected
fraud in a matter of months. Step three,
we must means test everything, including
immigration.
This one's touchy, but non-negotiable if
we want to avoid bankruptcy. Means
testing is not cruel. It's not a
punishment. It is simply making sure
that people qualify for the aid and it's
fiscal discipline. No parent with any
sense, no matter how wealthy, just keeps
giving money to their kids. You set
rules. You assess what they need and you
stick to it. No one should ever have the
expectation of just getting free stuff.
At least not until the robots turn us
into a cartev type 2 civilization. That
is a whole different video. Assistance
programs need to be thought of as
launchpads, not hammocks. Their goal
should be to get people back to being
totally self-sufficient. Outside of
seniors and the truly disabled,
government help should be temporary by
design. Get people back on their feet
and contributing. Then move those
dollars to someone else who needs them
at that moment. And this most
aggressively includes immigration, which
should be both hyperlimited and means
tested. If we want to rescue people from
foreign hardship, fantastic. But we have
to do it from within a balanced budget.
We cannot keep importing people with
their hands out, using it to gain voters
and calling it compassion. There should
be no incentive, financial or political,
to import cheap labor, people to pad the
census or create a new voting block
built on dependency. In no uncertain
terms, importing dependence will
bankrupt this nation. And then nobody
gets anything. And while it's beyond the
scope of today's video, we also have got
to stop financially punishing families
[music] intentionally. DSA, I'm looking
at you or otherwise. A strong family
unit is the most effective welfare
program in human history, and bad policy
has been tearing that apart for decades.
Step four, balance the budget and vote
smart. We have to balance the budget.
Not someday, right now. Because if we
don't do it voluntarily, bankruptcy will
do it for us. And bankruptcy is not kind
to anyone. That means remembering that
we don't have a tax revenue problem. We
have a spending problem. History has
proven no matter how much we bring in in
taxes, we spend even more. We have got
to cut the deficit until spending grows
slower than revenue. Revenue must
overtake our deficit. anything else is
financial suicide. Additionally, we use
the only power that still scares
Washington are votes. And we have to use
them far more wisely. In every election,
we need to demand a pledge from our
candidates. That's very simple. They're
going to ensure a balanced budget and
stop stealing from our children and
marching us towards the cliff of
bankruptcy. If they won't commit to
that, they don't deserve our vote.
Period. And if someone served in office
and didn't do their part to balance the
budget, we need to seek candidates that
will. Now look, I am hyper aware that
there are political realities, but if we
do not become obsessive about this
issue, no other issues will matter.
Financial health is like human health. A
man with good health has many dreams. A
man with poor health has but one, to get
healthy. A country with healthy
financials can pursue many goals. A
country with poor financials can only
pursue one. You've got to balance the
budget. None of this is complicated. But
it's also not political or ideological.
It's just math. If we don't stop
spending more money than we make in tax
revenue, we will bankrupt the country.
The dollar will collapse and no one will
get any benefits of any kind. That's the
part that I think people keep missing.
We're talking about something that's
only 7 to 10 years away. We need to act
now for no other reason than we must if
we want to continue to be compassionate,
let alone a superpower with many dreams.
All right, if you guys want to see me
explore topics like this in real time,
be sure to join me live Wednesdays and
Fridays at 6:00 a.m. Pacific on YouTube,
X, Twitch, and Kick. You can join the
debate or just chill in the community. I
hope to see you there. Till next time,
my friends, be legendary. Take care.
Peace. If you like this conversation,
check out this episode to learn more.
2008, the housing market is euphoric.
Everyone believes it is going to go up
forever. Everyone, that is except the
quants who see the truth in the numbers.
They know what the rest of us are going
to find out.