Kind: captions
Language: en
The Senate passed the Ebstein
Transparency Act 42721,
but Speaker of the House Mike Johnson
says he has concerns. We'll see about
that one. Dems are now catching some
heat that Epstein ties are coming out on
their side as well. Texas Governor
Abbott declares the Muslim Brotherhood a
terrorist organization. Saudi Crown
Prince MBS commits to investing $1
trillion in the US. Japan's economy
continues to be on shaky ground as the
yen carry trade continues to unwind and
things are heating up between China and
Japan. And do men care about women's
careers? Ooh, we go deep on that one.
>> The House passed the Epstein
Transparency Act 427 to1 and then almost
immediately the Senate unanimously voted
for the release of the files.
It's funny to me though, right? Cuz on
the big beautiful bill or on the
government shutdown, the House goes to
the Senate. Give us three days, we'll
get back to you in a couple. It's kind
of like shipping like 3 to five business
days, we'll sign the bill and get it
then.
>> But this thing got signed on Tuesday.
Went to the Senate. Yep, we're good on
Tuesday. It was like a conveyor belt. So
now it's on the president's desk this
morning. We'll see if he signs it. But
it seems that everybody, this is the
first uniart unanimous vote I can think
of since probably like the 9/11 like
Patriot Act funding. Like this has been
a while. So,
>> this is one of those where there is
clearly a right side and a wrong side of
history. That's why I think it is so
wild that you had a guy vote against
this. Uh I'll be interested to see if he
comes under scrutiny, but he certainly
piqued my curiosity. Like I want to know
who that guy is, what he's about. So,
from that perspective, you also have to
take into account that there's so much
optics. Like, it is terrible optics to
go against this. No matter how sound
your reasoning, like at the headline
level, it's bad. So, in terms of getting
everyone to vote for it, you kind of
just have to hold your nose and and see
what happens because
I mean, how do you stand in opposition
to this? It just doesn't seem possible.
>> Copy. All right. Well, let's jump into
Mike Johnson's comments.
>> Any reaction to leader Thun seeing the
bill without adding amendments or
changing it?
>> I am u
I'm deeply disappointed in this outcome.
I think uh I'm told I've been at the
state dinner. I don't know. I was just
told that Chuck Schumer rushed it to the
floor and put it out there preemptively.
It needed amendments. I just spoke to
the president about that. We'll see what
happens.
>> So is he do you think he may veto it?
You say you spoke to the president?
>> I'm not saying that. I don't
>> Is he supportive of it in its current
form?
>> Uh we we both have
>> Pause it for a second. So super random
side note. Uh, I think the best way to
view this is as a basketball player
walking into the stadium. Like once you
understand politicians are playing a
game, it attracts a certain personality
type. People that have been
>> um, it's survivorship bias, right? So
all the people that weren't quite good
at all the different elements of the
game, they sort of fall off. And then
you get these people that are like the
NBA players of uh positioning, spin,
lying,
um networking, uh care about governance,
like it it's a whole mixed bag. It's not
just bad things, but like the more that
I try to map, okay, how is a politician
going to respond to XYZ thing? Uh if I
try to map by morals, I'm completely
baffled every time. Or at least they
certainly don't share my morals. If I
map according to what's the winning play
in terms of public sentiment,
not even the long-term like you're going
to look good in this way because if you
go with even the long-term historical I
want to be on the right side of the, you
know, I want to be on the right side of
this issue that won't map.
>> It's what is the shortterm perception of
the long-term tale of this thing that
you'll find. Okay. Yeah, people will
change. They'll flip-flop. They will um
say one thing, do another. They will,
like Trump, be 100% against releasing
the 100% for releasing files, then 100%
against releasing the files, then back
to 100% for releasing the files. And all
of that maps when you go, okay, what's
the politically expedient thing?
>> Yeah.
>> And so thinking of them as athletes for
me reveals this is a game. This is
people training. This is behind the
scenes. I don't want you to see the
plays I'm going to call. Uh, I'm gonna
try to like trick you um to get in the
end zone, but getting in the end zone is
all that matters. Gain and retain power.
Gain and retain power. And like that
loop, you're blackpilling me. I don't
know if you know how much and I am sort
of joking because uh you didn't force me
to write deep dives, but you did put
your finger on something that was
obvious and had to be tried and it just
ended up smashing. But every time I sit
down to write one of these, I'm really
trying to find, okay, my goal is to
figure out like the one coming out on
Monday's about gutting the IRS.
>> So I'm like, was it good? Was it bad?
Democrats end up hyperfunding the IRS,
right? Sounds like great idea. Get all
those tax dollars that you can. Then you
look at the math and you're like,
there's nothing here. Nothing here. It's
like 200 billion over 10 years were the
estimates.
>> That's nothing. Yeah.
>> What's happening right now? How why are
we even talking about this? Uh so you
then gut the IRS and you put tariffs in
its place. Anything there more than what
they're doing. It's instead of 200
billion every 10 years is 200 billion a
year. And I get why people want to be
excited about that. Even that not going
to close the gap.
>> So it's like you start writing this
stuff and you're like, "Okay, then what
is the solution?" And you just get
really dark into like, "All right,
everybody fend for yourselves." Getting
the public to do the right thing
seems impossible.
>> Once uh Trump signs a bill, it's not
like these files then get posted on X.
There's still another layer of kind of
I'm going to call it government secrecy
that does have to pass through.
>> So even though Johnson seems a little
bit uh bullish on it or uh bearish on
it, Trump doesn't like it in its current
form. They still have a way Trump has
seemingly said just yeah, whatever. Give
them everything.
>> Yeah. Do you think that they're are
gonna try to kind of do a little bit of
that positioning before they just
release it?
>> A thousand percent.
>> Yeah.
>> And I think that they will hide behind
the fact that this is a national
security threat. And so all those things
that you see redacted though, that's
just all national security. Um, now
Epstein's brother, Mark Epstein, is
saying, and we should pull that clip up,
is saying that uh, right now Republicans
are scrubbing Republican names,
>> and they're going to I don't know if
he's the one that said under the guise
of national security, but it seems
self-evident to me that that's precisely
the argument that they will use when we
get a whole bunch of redactions. This is
Jeffrey Epstein's brother.
>> Mhm. The reason they're going to be
releasing these things and the reason
for the flip is that they're sanitizing
these files. There's a facility in
Winchester, Virginia, where they're
scrubbing the files to take Republican
names out. That's what I was told by a
pretty good source.
>> They are sanitizing the files. Can you
partisan your way out of this though?
cuz I feel like there's certain things
like yes money printing yes uh benefits
for SNAP yes healthcare for illegal
aliens but I feel like you can't
partisan your way out of like they're
all the PDFs where there was no PDFs
over here it's just you got
>> they will partisan everything government
is a game of spin so yeah of course they
will of course they will
>> and the spin has started Donald Trump
Jr. tweeted, "So, a convicted sex
offender who trafficked kids get invited
to a private dinner with Obama and a
meeting with Jeffre 5 years after being
released, but it's somehow still all
about Trump. The Epstein saga is a hoax
regarding Trump, but not the Democrats
who he funded and enabled him."
>> There there's your partisanship. There
it is. On our side, bro, it's just
coincidence that he's hanging out with
him. What do you mean on the other side
though? It's clearly it's wrongdoing.
>> Yeah, get uh get used to this. But oh,
man. So, how do you parse through this?
As an individual, this gets relatively
simple, but as the masses, this is the
game. The masses is a game of uh
confidence. So, I'm reading 1929, very
good book. Uh I really hope we can get
him on the show. Mhm.
>> And one of the things that you see, so
in my head, the way that the um Wall
Street crash of 1929 happened was like
it was a day it crashed, people jump,
commit suicide, uh game over. We know
that afternoon, oh, we're in a great
depression.
>> That's the Black Monday one, 1929. Got
it. Okay.
>> And uh it's not how it works. And what
happens is like there's a bunch of like
smaller crashes and there's a really big
crash and then for a year people are
like no no no bullish it's coming back
right around the corner it's going to
pop again
>> and then it's not for a year that people
are finally like oh [ __ ] I guess this is
really a problem. So people cannot tell
what's happening in real time. That is
the problem. Like people get confused.
There's all these competing narratives
and ultimately it's it really is just a
game of confidence. If if they could
have in 1929 gotten people to believe
everything is going to be fine,
>> everything would have been finer. There
is still math behind the scenes. But
what really exacerbates the problem is
everybody goes, "Oh, I need to save my
money." Which you do, but in saving your
money, you exacerbate the problem. It's
it's like anxiety. Like once you start
feeling anxious, you pay attention to
how anxious you are. You get anxious
about being anxious and that spirals the
anxiety. And so it's uh when I first
started dealing with anxiety, I was
really annoyed by the fact that if I'm
not thinking about it, I'm never
anxious. It's only once I start thinking
about it, then I get anxious. And I'm
like, that's dumb. This message is
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And now let's get back to the show. Uh,
but that's exactly how confidence in the
markets work. And that's why it's banger
line. This idea that a market can absorb
anything but a lack of confidence.
>> All right, let's jump over to the White
House now where Trump hosted the Saudi
Crown Prince yesterday who decided to
increase his investment in the US to $1
trillion. That doesn't even sound like a
real number anymore.
>> Thank you very much.
>> Well, thank you, Mr. President. In fact,
pause it for a sec. Sorry, you just said
something that um I was thinking about
that this morning.
I don't even know what the number is
after a trillion.
And we're already at 38 trillion. It
does not take long to get to a thousand
trillion, which is a new number that I
don't even know what the [ __ ] it's
called. That's wild. All right. Sorry.
>> Relation for about nine decades, and
we've been working together for uh a a
long time. But today it's a very
important uh uh time in our history
because there's also a lot of things
that we're working in in the future. Uh
we believe uh in the future of the rest
of America. We believe in what you're
doing Mr. President really creating a
lot of uh good things and good
foundation to create more economical
growth, more business in America and it
will also your work for the world uh uh
peace. I believe Mr. President and today
and tomorrow we're going to announce
that we are going to increase that that
600 billion to almost $1 trillion of
investment real investment and real
opportunity by details in many areas and
the agreement that we are signing today
in many areas in technology in AI in uh
earth materials magnets etc that will
create a lot of investment opportunity
>> so you are doing that now you're saying
to me now that the 600 billion will be 1
trillion
>> definitely because what we are signing
it will facilitate that and and
>> pause it for a sec, Drew. This is a race
to the midterms. This is a race to the
midterms because he's really getting
people to commit a lot of money.
>> Mhm.
>> Uh all of them, they're way too smart to
not all of them will have some sort of
get out of jail free clause if they
don't like the next administration or if
Trump becomes a lame duck. So, there are
going to be just like all the caveats in
the universe. But if he can get some of
this stuff going by the midterms, oh my
god. But he is going to have to focus
relentlessly on jobs for the middle and
working class. Jobs for the middle and
working class. If he pulls that off, oh
my god. And we really do have a race.
I'm shocked at people's read on my read
of Mom Donnie. Socialism is on the rise
dramatically. Mhm.
>> And he represents that. So you've got
this like battle to either return to our
capitalistic roots, to become China or
to become socialist in a non-Chinese
way. Uh and I can walk through the
difference if people care, but that that
is the the like thing that's happening
right now and it matters a lot. And it
all has to start bearing fruit by the
midterms.
>> Are you saying that it's it's a race
between
true, let's call it, true capitalism,
state sponsored capitalism, and then
socialism?
>> Yes.
>> Got it. Okay.
>> Trump wants state sponsored capitalism.
Tom wants actual capitalism,
which might be the dark horse. And then
obviously the young want the young and
especially foreignb born want socialism
and I'm I am going to whether we do a
deep dive about it or not I am now
hellbent to learn about Venezuela. It's
terrifying. It's terrifying. I did um
what I call a hook storm in the deep
dive on Venezuela and I was like I
cannot believe these numbers are true.
>> In in the 80s the boulevard, the now
completely worthless boulevard was worth
more than the US dollar. Americans were
leaving America to go live in Venezuela
for economic opportunity.
And now,
>> wow.
>> Now it is an absolute [ __ ] show because
guess what they did, Drew? They
nationalized their largest and most
successful industry. And then they put
out in like the 80s, 80s or 90s, they
put out a thousand price restrictions.
Sound familiar? Rent freezes, uh,
grocery store, buses, [ __ ] like that.
and uh created shortages and everything
basically immediately. And then the
country just over like 25 years just
completely imploded. It's so wild. And
even though that happened like the real
implosion happened in like the 2010s
>> that's yesterday, people are still
voting for the same policies.
That that that one is where I'm like,
hold on. I'm in the Matrix. I'm the only
non-MPC.
Uh, and this is just like meant to [ __ ]
with me or something.
>> Yeah.
>> I mean, this is crazy.
>> It people are struggling, especially in
the middle class. And while Trump is,
the economy is great. Everybody's giving
the US money. People still can't buy
houses. Grocery prices are still high.
Eggs aren't $13 anymore, but gas still
isn't $299. Like, there's still certain
things that are pulling strains on the
economy. Housing being a biggest one.
Um, and while we are advocating for push
on a national level, federal level, I
think at the state and local levels, we
can do a lot more, whether it's
regulation uh, rollbacks for housing so
we can build more houses or something.
But I'm curious to see how Trump walks
that line between I'm doing all these
deals that makes the US a good
investment, but how is that quote
unquote trickling down to the people who
are actually going to be voting for him,
the people actually have to go inside
that booth?
>> Look, he's really trying to bring back a
ton of manufacturing. If he does that,
then there's going to be a lot more jobs
for the working class. That would be a
huge win. Um tariffs are never going to
cover the shortfall, but they're
certainly an interesting play in that it
is a tax.
>> Um and it will cause a little bit of
inflation, which given that you're in
the situation where you ironically
need some breaks on all the bubbles that
are forming in the stock market, but you
can't change the interest rate. So, you
like have to throw sand in the gears
somehow. It's really
>> it's really fascinating. I think it's
too little too late, but it is um he's
trying things. Now, that one obviously I
credit to
>> Bessant.
>> Uh but
>> it'll be interesting to see if it if he
can cash any of these checks before the
midterms because if he can slow the
growth in the stock market without
causing a um depression, you're already
in a stealth recession. But if he can
slow that down without putting us into a
depression, if he can bring back
manufacturing jobs so that the working
class have jobs, if he can deregulate
housing, and by the way, a big part of
when I say that the working class has
jobs, they also have negotiating power
so they can get their real wages up,
that would be huge. And then um we have
to find some way to
sensibly handle
the rapid robotification of the very
jobs that we're just starting to bring
some back.
>> So, we'll have to see how that plays
out. That that's one of those
counterveailing economic forces. We'll
see.
>> We'll see. But if he can get things if
he doesn't get things moving by the
midterms, it's game over.
>> Uh do you think that's why he's pushing
for those $2,000 tariff checks?
>> Yes.
>> Literally just trying to
>> It's a bribe.
>> It's a bribe, man. But here's the thing.
If you're going to insist on printing
money, um, better to put it in the hands
of the people and let them do what
they're going to do. But the bad news is
they're just going to speculate, so
it'll create bubbles. It's not like
people run out and buy groceries with
the stimulus checks. We know from CO,
they go buy uh stocks, Bitcoin,
memecoins
um because it's liquidity. So this is
why, shout out to uh Ralph Paul,
longtime friend of the show, amazing
guy. uh he talks about liquidity is all
you need to pay attention to and if you
do stimi checks like that you flood the
system with liquidity now liquidity
always chases a return and so people but
the problem is it's oh god you're
putting money in the hands rightly yes
more love I'm just saying because you
have not also educated them you create a
knockon effect which is they yolo into
GameStop now I know you made some
duckets off GameStop but ooh not where I
want to see people put that
Um, so
now how will society read that starting
January 1st, people get a quote unquote
Trump account when they're born? So if
you've got a baby, cross your legs hard
because that baby, if it comes out
January 1st or later, uh, it gets a
Trump account. And I'm a big believer in
what that could become. According to
Greg Abbott, governor of Texas, he just
designated the Muslim Brotherhood as a
foreign terrorist and transnational
criminal organization. Um, this bans
them from buying or acquiring land in
Texas and or authorizes the attorney
general to sue to shut them down. Um, I
understand the fear of foreigners taking
over America. I understand the fear of
the way that Israel took over Palestine
that other countries will take over
America. Um, making them a foreign
terrorist seems like a line to me that's
a bit aggressive. How do you feel about
that line?
>> I don't know enough about the Muslim
Brotherhood to know if that's like the
most out of pocket [ __ ] ever or if I
should be clapping. I I have no idea.
>> Um, so yeah, to your point, should they
be designated a terrorist organization?
I do not know enough to comment on that.
Um, so what I do know enough to comment
on is countries need to protect their
values. So if the Muslim Brotherhood
presents a threat to our values, you
need to do something. It may not be
designating them as a terrorist
organization that really may be out of
pocket. But uh, yeah, you have to do
something aggressive.
>> We had this conversation when we were
bringing up deer uh, Dearbornne,
Michigan, which was kind of the home of
all the old power plants before they got
exported to Mexico. in um Canada there
is something for the place where cheap
land is that's where the foreigners will
go they'll d hunker down they'll uh
commerce amongst themselves they'll kind
of build up their own prosperity
we have to take accountability I feel
like in America to say we can't outport
jobs we can't export jobs we can't not
feed into communities then when
communities get desolate and cheap and
run down another migrant group comes in
buys up that land, builds it up, and
then becomes a voting majority in there,
and then say, "Wait, wait, wait. You
guys aren't allowed to take that over."
It seems like the government has left
it, put a for sale sign on it, and
turned their back on it, and they just
did. They thought maybe other Americans
were going to buy it. I don't know what
happened. What? There has to be some
accountability on that side, right? We
can't get mad that other people are
taking advantage of our cheap land,
overlooked towns when we're not taking
advantage of our cheap land and
overlooked towns.
>> So, I'll take a different approach to
that. And I will say that your
obligation is to make sure that the
people that you're inviting into your
country share your values and they
assimilate.
>> Uh if you did dumb things and you let
people inside your country, now you have
a bigger problem because now you need to
whatever you do you need to be doing as
a policy. So that if you're willing to
put a policy that affects everybody born
here, not born here, uh great. Then
yeah, I'm all for doing it at the level
of policy. Um but
the real beef that I have is that we
have not paid attention to our values.
We have not inculcated our children with
what I'll call American values. Uh we
have not paid attention to the
demographic of teachers that have such a
huge impact on our children like none of
that has been conscious at the national
level. So there in lies the problem. We
are we have a very distressing number of
people in America that hate America. And
so I have a very big problem with that.
And I would say it's an all hands- on
deck. You don't become an authoritarian
dictatorship to combat that problem.
>> Uh that to me is you're just you're
becoming the monster that you're
fighting against. Uh but yeah, you do
need to um for instance, you've got to
secure the border. Yay, we did that. But
will Trump be uh will the Republican
party be in power in another 3 years?
It's not looking good right now. So, uh
will the borders just swing back open?
Very possible. So, there I'm like, like
you've definitely got some worry to do
along those lines. We don't care about
assimilation. We have a bizarre
narrative forming where we're like, but
wait, we're all immigrants. And it's
like, okay, hold on. When back when we
were immigrants, it was you had a nation
where if you sent somebody over here,
they were like 80% likely to die in
their first year. So that's very
different than a government that's like
crippled by debt.
>> Mhm.
>> Uh huge
entitlements. Huge entitlements. and now
you're uh a target for people to come in
and use your sort of open-mindedness
against you.
We're acting as if we don't have a
culture now. We've had a culture for 150
years.
>> So all of that stuff is just completely
disingenuous in my opinion. And so now
it's like, well, if you don't care what
America looks like in 50 years, yeah,
well then fling the borders open. let
anybody in. Don't worry about
assimilation and just do your thing and
it'll become what it becomes. And if it
shatters into a bunch of smaller um eth
ethnically divided sort of mini nations,
then it is what it is. That's not my
vision. My vision is I like the United
States of America. I want all 50 states
to still be all 50 states. Uh I want the
federalist system uh that I grew up
with. All of that is lovely and I think
is worth defending. I want freedoms. I
see them eroding all around the world,
including aggressively in Western
Europe, which is crazy to me. Uh, so
yeah, I think that that is worth
fighting for. And I can tell that we're
going to get sucked deeply into this as
a culture in the coming 5 to 10 years.
It is going to play out horrifically
across Europe because they are now
waking up to uh what it means to have
people in your country that don't
believe in your country. and it ain't
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>> Let's go to Japan. Uh, Japan is in a
very precarious situation. On one side,
they are under crippling debt. I would
say they're probably the most immers
first country debtritten nation. U
they're probably leading the way that
way. And then on the other side, China
is now kind of breathing down their
necks. But starting with the debt of it
all, we talked about this briefly a
couple months ago about the the Japanese
yen carry trade and how money was cheap
in Japan. They were able to lend it.
Rates were near zero. It was basically
you get yen, you can then invest it in
other places, make your profit, pay it
back in yen. You're basically playing
zero to 1% uh interest rates on that.
Interest rates are now picking up on
these things. Now that's breaking the
global markets. And Japan is one of the
Now Japan is having to pay its own debts
off. So now it's selling some of its
foreign investment and Japan is one of
the biggest investors in America. And
that's how it's kind of impacting us.
That was a bit of a speedrun. Let me
know if there was any holes on that. Um,
and how what is the second order
consequences of this? Cuz it does seem
like Japan is now hunkering down trying
to fight inflation in their own internal
uh prospects. Now they can't do as much
foreign investment anymore.
>> Yeah. So the second and third order
consequences is that what you were just
describing is known as the yen carry
trade. People bought people borrowed
very cheap money, invested largely in
American assets. the American assets
paid more interest than they paid
interest to carry the yen. And so they
got to keep the spread. And uh for
decades, like 40 years, yen stayed
really low, very cheap. And now it's
finally beginning to rise. And Japan is
trying to pull itself out of a a
crisisled deflationary spiral. Crisisled
deflation bad, innovationled deflation,
good. So they're in a crisis-led
deflationary spiral. They're trying to
print so much money that they actually
get inflation that it overcomes people's
tendency to save. And so now they're
like pumping pumping pumping money into
the economy. But that's going to have
effects in terms of the bonds. To be
honest, I am shocked that it's not
impacting the um shorter term bonds. But
so far it's not, at least not nearly as
much. So right now the Japanese
government isn't in sort of any
increased crisis. I think people are
freaking out and I'll get to what
they're freaking out about in a second.
They're freaking out for Japan when
Japan isn't who you have to worry about
right now. Right now what you have to
worry about is the yen carry trade. Now
the reason that the yen carry trade
becomes problematic is as the interest
rates go up because people are saying,
"Well, wait a second. Uh there's so much
liquidity in the system. you're going to
have to pay me more money if you want me
to put my money into your uh long long
long tail bond.
>> And so to get people to put money into
that 40-year bond, then now the rate is
going up. And so now people are like,
"Well, hold on a second. uh that might
have been exactly how I was doing my yen
carry trade was to put it way out on the
40-year time horizon to get that super
low uh rate. And now people are
realizing I'm going to have to sell some
of my American assets to go pay off my
uh yen. And so the yen is actually
getting stronger as well. So now you've
got a currency problem where you're
like, uhoh, I could be in a position
where the value of the yen starts
skyrocketing against the dollar. And so
even just the yes, I can still sell for
dollars and the dollars are looking
great, but the dollar yen currency
exchange not looking great and I'm super
in trouble.
>> And so it's pulling liquidity out of the
US system and sending it basically back
to Japan. And so if people are no longer
able to get that sort of fake cheap
money out of Japan, where's it going to
come from? And anywhere else that tries
to run this, people are going to be a
little bit skeptical. Zimbabwe, hey,
we've got really low rates as well. But
you also hyperinflate your currency. So,
um, that's going to be tough to
replicate and so that could create a
sucking sound out of the public markets
here in the US uh to the tune of like
it's less than 10% I think uh for the
most part when you start looking at how
many people are running the trade but
somewhere call it 15% and less still
could be very very uh problematic. Is it
going to be a cataclysm? No. It's going
to one, your system is so fragile.
Anything like this could end up having a
contagion effect and that would be
problematic in and of itself. Japan will
be fine still for a while. Watch the
rates. They're climbing steeply. And if
it starts affecting the short term,
because I think they refinance most of
their debt in 9 years or less. So if it
starts impacting that duration, then
Japan would be in trouble because then
their interest rates will go up and
you'll get the exact problem we have,
which is fiscal dominance, where you
can't raise or lower the rates anymore
because if you raise the rates, the debt
becomes unbearable. Uh if you lower the
rates, you reflood the system with
liquidity and you get the bubbles
forming everywhere. This honestly, okay,
this is like I'm now out of my depth.
Nobody should This is like one of those,
hey, just run intellectual models with
the following information. It's possible
that the yen carry trade start sucking
some of the um inflation out of our own
stock market would actually wouldn't be
terrible. If it did it in a slow way,
that's probably better than it it is
better than a rupture. Like if something
bursts and you repric rapidly, that's
way worse than this happening slowly
over the next say 24 months where people
get a chance to calmly reposition. um
that's a much better scenario and that
seems to be more how it's playing out.
It's growing steeply but only at the
real real tail end of the curve uh tail
end of the duration. So
hopefully this gets people to react now
and that we'll see more and more people
start unwinding these in a more orderly
fashion.
>> Yeah. Um the OG poster is saying that
the exposure is upwards of 20 trillion
dollars. So, it's one of those things
where it might not hit immediately on
one country or another, but it's one of
those things if this person starts
selling, then that person starts selling
and you can kind of see that
>> is our massive. The good news is that's
global.
>> Yeah. Global.
>> Now, the bad news is we're a very
globally inter interconnected economy.
So, it's one of those the contagion
could just like whipsaw around. One of
the things I didn't realize is in
reading about the crash in 1929, a lot
of the American crash was because the
Europeans were struggling so much that
now there's fewer people buying your
assets here in the US. And so there is
like the just how do all the different
countries interrelate? It gets very
complex very fast. And then on the flip
side of that, Japan is now waring
warning citizen to avoid China as
Beijing escalates retaliation. This is
from Mario Norfall. It seems that the
political tentions are starting to kind
of heighten up in there. Uh China is
also cautioning students studying Japan
about heightened risk. China accounts
for 27% of Japan's inbound tourism and
hosts 37% of the country's international
students. Um so Japanese firms are
pulling back investments. Chinese firms
are Chinese firms are facing trade
restrictions. It seems that these are
tensioning and all this came from the uh
Japanese PM saying that if China were to
attack Taiwan that would be an
existential threat for Japan and they
would have to respond. It seems to me
that just by saying that China China's
reaction makes it feel like they were
planning on doing that. I don't know if
they were planning on doing it this year
or next year. I don't know what the
timeline was, but it seems like they
were planning on their eyeing Taiwan a
lot more than we might think.
>> Xi has spoken openly about reunifying
with Taiwan. I'm someone needs to fact
check me on this, but I believe he said
I will reunify with Taiwan by 2027,
bro. That's like right around the
corner. So, um, like it's a big deal.
Now, I didn't realize that Japan was so
sensitive to Taiwan. I knew we were
sensitive to Taiwan because so much of
our chip manufacturing
>> is from Taiwan, but I did not realize
that Japan had this kind of beef. Now,
China, as I've said several times here
on the show, China absolutely hates
Japan because they had real beef in like
in and around World War II. And yeah,
uh, China has a longass memory and they
really uh are going to be quick to react
to anything that Japan says. So this
this will be one to watch. Yeah.
>> Yeah. We've had ongoing conflicts in
Russia and Ukraine and that seems to be
the litmus test that everybody thought
like, okay, seeing how that China's
paying attention to how the world reacts
to that because if Russia ends up
winning like, oh, okay, you can't just
take more territory now in 2025. Okay,
bet. Let's do it.
>> Yeah. Well, so um the most interesting
argument that I've heard from Andrew
Bamante around what's going to actually
happen with China and Taiwan is that
they'll deal with it the way that they
dealt with Hong Kong. That first it will
be administrative because right now
Taiwan is actually divided. So I don't
know if it's exactly 50/50, but they
have a uh I think a president that is
pro the US and they have or
pro-independence I should say. And then
they have a Congress that is pro-
reunification with China. It's either
that or flipped. And I didn't realize
that they were divided like that. I
didn't realize that some people wanted
to reunify with China. And the
fascinating thing is knowing the
history. So um Chiang Kai-shek I believe
was the name of the guy that founded
Taiwan. He was fighting with uh Mao over
>> what ends up becoming um the People's
Republic of China. And so they're
colliding, huge civil war. Is the
Communist Party going to win or not? And
the Communist Party ends up just
thrashing uh Chiang Kai-Shek. And so he
flees with his army to Taiwan thinking,
"All right, we're going to regroup for a
minute, then we're going to come back
and we're going to retake China." And
then it just never happens. So given
that I was like wait so the idea of
people in Taiwan wanting to reunify uh
with China would be a bit like if the um
I mean to be I guess this is revealing
my bias but if you think of it as if the
North and the South in our civil war
fought and the uh North ended up fleeing
and the South won and they run all of
America and then the North is like
actually slavery is not that bad so we
want to reunify with you guys. I'd be
like, "Whoa, I did not see that one
coming." If the South were saying,
"Actually, no, we are going to like take
the little bit of the North that they
still remain in." And the North was
like, "Yeah, yes, please." I'd be like,
"Whoa, wait a second. What What were you
guys fighting for ideologically than the
first time?" So, I don't know if just
enough time has gone by that they're
looking at China and how miraculous
China's last 40 years have been and
they're like, "We want some of that."
and they think that it's going to keep
going on and personal liberties are a
small sacrifice. I don't know. I don't
know enough about Taiwanese politics uh
to know what they're thinking. But that
one really shocked me, man. That one
really shocked me. And look, I think I
can just very credibly be accused. I
have a western mindset, a western lens.
I look at China and I see something I
don't want, but that doesn't mean that
the Chinese people aren't loving it. Um,
so it could be that. And maybe many
people in Taiwan are like, "No, bro. I
don't have a [ __ ] American mindset.
Get out of here. I'm way more closely
aligned with uh China. I want a strong
government. I don't want the separation.
Um but woo, like for me, I'm just like,
yo, that is like a Turkey voting for
Thanksgiving. I'm just like, I don't
understand what is happening here.
>> When I first heard this situation, I
thought it was similar like to Puerto
Rico where we just need strategic bases
in that region where we have a bunch of
bases in Japan. Taiwan being quote
unquote neutral will at least help us
get closer to China if we need to. North
Korea, who knows what they're up to. So,
I felt like that's what this came down
to. Taiwan having a little bit of break.
America kind of separated them just to
kind of say, "Okay, now we can have a
presence there need be." We have Japan
where I think that's like our second or
third most uh military bases outside of
America. So, it's like we have these
strategic strongholds in that region. Is
there something else there other than
like men playing political animal? US
just trying to get as many pieces on the
risk board as possible? Like why does
the US care?
>> Yeah.
>> About Taiwan or Japan? So Taiwan largely
for us is the they control the chips.
That would be the most problematic part.
>> Uh it just influences so much of our
modern way of life. We have got to rush
to be able to manufacture these in the
US. At at some point either China's
going to diplomatically pressure Taiwan
because right now we cut off
>> Taiwan from sending chips to China.
>> Yeah. So you can imagine that China at
some point either and look, it's very
possible that they've already had the
breakthrough that they need and they're
going to be building their own ships and
they just don't care anymore. But if
they do, you could see them
diplomatically pressuring Taiwan to stop
sending them to us. And so this is where
you really don't want that to play out.
And then militarily, if they're like,
"No, no, no. We will do an amphibious
invasion or whatever and we're just
going to strongarm Taiwan back into the
fold."
>> Uh then obviously at that point you're
at real risk. Now, China may say,
"Listen, US, play nice and we'll keep
sending you chips, but um I don't want
to put myself in that position." So, we
need to get independent from that very,
very quickly. Uh but yes, so from having
alliances in the region, hugely
important for us.
>> Uh we've been a um a Unipole power now
for a long ass time since like the late
80s, early 90s. So, this is just again
it's throughidity strap. This is just a
very bitter pill to swallow for somebody
that's used to being a hegemonic power.
Suddenly having to share the stage and
having them go, you're going to get out
of our region altogether militarily
everything. And that certainly puts you
in a much weaker position. So um yeah,
that we don't want to see that happen.
We don't want to see an ounce of our
influence be diminished. We don't want
to see our military have to be removed.
We don't want any trade changes. like we
want to control the terms of everything
and that has been declining now for
decades with China.
>> Uh all right, let's jump into culture.
There's been a lot of things happening.
Um first there's this super viral tweet
um about men and their career and their
care. So men do not care about careers,
ladies. I'm sorry. They just don't. They
>> about your careers
>> about your career, ladies. I'm sorry.
They just don't. They will date a
waitress at Applebee's over a corporate
exec if they treat them right and make
their lives easier.
>> I think this is one of those that like
goes viral every so often.
>> Uh because yes, this is so
self-evidently true that I don't even
understand like who's confused? Are guys
confused by that? Women confused by
that?
>> Um so yeah, like the mo and this is one
of those times I so wish my wife was
either here in the feed. The most
tumultuous time that my wife and I went
through from my perspective, it wasn't
for her, but from my perspective was
when she decided she wanted to be an
entrepreneur.
>> And I was like, whoa, I have to like
completely remap like my thinking about
our relationship and how we're together
and like what this means. Uh, so yeah,
if she thought I was going to be like,
"Oh my god, this is amazing. Being
married to an entrepreneur is the best."
It was like that was a wild
miscalculation on her part. Now, I ended
up realizing I want my life my wife to
live a life that she feels fulfilled and
she loves and she's excited and I want
her to become the woman that she wants
to become. But we 100% had to navigate
like, well, hold on cuz there are things
that I expect from a wife and if I'm not
getting them, then I'm not going to be
satisfied in my marriage. So, uh, we've
got to map out like how we get
>> both of us in a position where we're
both happy because marriages are huge
compromises and if we're not getting the
things that we want. So, here's a PSA
for women, and I get how distressing
this is, but uh the number one thing
that you are valued for are your looks.
They are signs of fertility. And if you
don't understand that there's a gigantic
algorithm running in a man's brain for
that, life is going to be a never-ending
string of confusion. Once you understand
that, then it's like, okay, got it. So,
I'm going to have maximum social power
when I'm young. That's just the way that
this goes. Assuming that I'm beautiful.
And PS, if you're not and then you you
remain un beautiful and you're old, like
that's really a double whammy. Uh but
there certainly are other things like
looking after somebody, being nurturing,
taking care of like those are hugely
valued um aspect from men to women. So
if you think of it from we're going to
come together as a unit to survive a
very harsh environment where we have to
raise children together, then you'll get
okay, we're gonna divvy up these tasks.
Now I think men and women are equal but
they are valued for very different
things and this is just an
acknowledgement of that a guy is not uh
attracted to a woman who can garner
resources and in fact that might be a
collision for him because the higher the
bar the woman sets for you need to out
earn me which will just be the standard
dynamic. In fact here's a stat that
ought to freak you out in a marriage. If
a woman starts making more money than
the man, the use of erectile dysfunction
medication triples.
>> He can't get it up.
>> That's one of those where I'm like,
"Ladies, I need you to hear that again.
He cannot get an erection because you
make more money than him."
That's real. So, uh, brace yourselves.
Men need to feel powerful. They need to
feel that they are doing the thing. They
need to feel that they are providing and
taking care of you. And that this has
become so clouded in our modern
discourse. I I weep for people cuz I'm
like, dude, life is if you've got a
moral framework that says life shouldn't
be that way, but you constantly
encounter that life is that way. One,
it's just constantly triggering. And
two, it will be a neverending cavalcade
of confusion. you're just going to be
like, "What? What is going on? I I make
all this money. I've got this big,
beautiful house, and I can't find anyone
to date me." And I want to be like, you
would have a way easier time finding
someone to date you if you had a
terrible apartment and he felt like
inviting you back to his just nice
apartment was like making you happy and
excited, uh, that you were making no
money. So when he buys you like uh a you
know I used to think that Red Lobster
was like the fanciest restaurant in the
world that he takes you to Red Lobster
and you're like oh my god like I'm
eating wonderfully like that gives him
the ability to feel the way he wants to
feel without having to be in the top 1%.
Mhm.
>> So by you like a woman who is tall,
wealthy, extremely intelligent,
ambitious,
um you're a [ __ ] nightmare. That is
not what guys are looking for because
now they have to be even taller, even
more ambitious, even more successful,
making even more money in order to
impress you. And so their level of
anxiety is going to be through the roof
because they're like, "Am I really going
to be able to find somebody? Is she
really going to stay with me? Is she
always looking over my shoulder at the
next person?" And then to make it worse,
like all the like psychotic things that
have happened in culture now with dating
apps and stuff where women are like the
three sixes or whatever, like it's just
oh my god. Yeah. So anyway,
>> but is that one of the things where it's
it comes down to the man wants to feel
impressive like he wants to feel like he
can impress his woman?
>> Yes, of course.
>> That's the that's the because it seems
like that's the common thread of all
this is that
>> nature has hardwired a man to be judged
by his ability to provide access to more
resources than she would otherwise have.
>> So if she's already got I mean just
think of the height thing. If you're a
six-foot woman and you will only date
guys that are taller than you or guys
will only date women shorter than them,
it's like, well, you just wildly
narrowed your field and theirs. So,
that's tough. Now, it is what it is.
Tall women should not be embarrassed.
They should be as tall as they can be.
Like, do your thing. But if you want to
know if you just narrowed your dating
pool, Yes. dramatically. Dramatically.
>> I I don't know. cuz I'm conflicted in
this cuz it's like yes, I get that. But
that's also under the assumption that
there's going to be like this great
reckoning where there's just going to be
a bunch of 50-year-old cat ladies who
are like, "Oh, snap."
>> There's going to be a great reckoning
there. There are already, dude, the
number of videos you can find where
women are crying because they're like
hitting 40 and they never had kids and
they never found a man and all of a
sudden they're turning invisible because
men uh you can look at a graph. This has
been studied many times. Look at a
graph. What age do women find
attractive? It's two years above them
and two years below them. No matter how
old they are. So if they're 50, they
find 52 year olds down to 48 year olds
attractive. What age does a man find
attractive? No matter what age he is,
the answer is 22. So a guy could be 75,
he finds a 22-y old attractive. He could
be 16, he finds a 22-year-old
attractive. So it just isn't true for
women. So um already like that's just a
bitter pill to swallow. women. When
you're young, you feel like your youth
is going to last forever and you're the
one person that's escaped the curse. And
then all of a sudden, you realize that
40-year-old guy is making a ton of
money. He's dating a 26-year-old
and you're [ __ ] And now you could
date a six-year-old, but you
are going to struggle.
>> These are these are the two graphs. So,
this is the a woman's age versus the age
of the man who looks best to her and how
it kind of so if she's 22 23 and then
when she's 50, a 46
>> year old. And then when you go to men,
it's 20 20 21 22 23
>> just straight straight cliff.
>>