Kind: captions
Language: en
Trump orders a blockade around
Venezuela. Many are calling it an
illegal act of war that should require
congressional approval, but certainly
hasn't gotten it. The Bondi Beach
massacre seems to be confirmed to be
tied to ISIS, sparking more concerns
about Islamist extremism and unwarranted
prejudiced against Muslims in general.
Susie Wild's new Vanity Fair interview
has people wondering if she's turning on
Trump or is just a shockingly candid
person. and the Schiller PE ratio just
crossed 40 for only the third time in
history signaling that we are in a
massive bubble. Gonna be breaking down
for you guys what exactly that is, what
it means. Well, there's one way to drive
the economy and that is stealing other
countries oil and that is what Donald
Trump wants to do. Uh I'm sorry. He
we're getting we're going for fentanyl
or cocaine or something. What was the
cover story? Yeah, [snorts]
>> I forgot what it is. But um let's start
with the true social post because I do
feel like Trump is being very bombastic
here. We know that this is his shocking.
>> Yeah.
>> Wait, what?
>> So I I I don't necessarily think that
everything he's saying on this tweet is
literal, but that is going to jump the
start of the conversation of Izzy
declaring war basically on Venezuela. So
this is from Trump on True Social.
Venezuela is completely surrounded by
the largest armada ever assembled in the
history of South America. It will only
get bigger. That's what she said. And
the shock to them will be nothing like
they have ever seen before. until such
time as they return to the United States
of America all the oil land and other
assets that they previously stole from
us. The illegitimate Maduro regime is
using oil from the stolen o oil fields
to finance themselves, drug terrorism,
human trafficking, murder and
kidnapping. All that's missing is
Epstein. For theft of all our assets,
for the theft of all our assets and many
other reasons, including terrorism, drug
smug, smuggling, and human trafficking,
the Venezuela regime has been designated
a foreign terrorist organization. That's
crazy. Therefore, today I am ordering a
total and complete back blockade of all
sanctioned oil tankers going into and
out of Venezuela. The illegal aliens and
criminals in that Maduro regime has sent
been sent to United States during the
week and the Biden administration are
being returned to Venezuela at a rapid
pace. America will not allow criminals,
terrorists or other countries to rob,
threaten or harm our nation and likewise
will not allow a hostile regime to take
our oil, land and any other assets all
of which would must be returned to the
United States immediately. Thank you for
your attention to this matter. Um, I try
to always keep myself sober by reminding
myself of when something becomes
suddenly incredibly important. Was I
thinking about that before? So, for
instance, if somebody all of a sudden
starts banging the drum about China,
I'll be like, "Yes, China's been on my
radar. It's part of my mental map of how
the world works and what's going on in
the great power conflicts right now."
Uh, so cool. That that's a part of my
map. That one makes sense for me to
really get enthusiastic about and be
like, "This really is a problem." When
you get something like Venezuela, I feel
like I'm being led around by the nose
where I'm like, "Okay, you're
controlling the news cycle by doing this
big thing there, but Venezuela wasn't on
my radar." So, either I was mismapping
the conflicts in South America. Very
possible. No problem. I'll update my
mental model and I'll get into it.
>> But I'm always trying to be really sober
about was this not on my radar because
this wasn't a thing. He's got some other
objective and this is just spin spin
spin. He's getting me to look at
something either so that he can do
something else. I used to study magic.
Misdirection is literally the game. It's
like, I want you to look over here and
I'm going to go do this really awkward
thing over here, but you don't even
notice it. And I know to be very
paranoid whenever a politician is trying
to get me to focus on something because
either they're getting me to focus on
the right thing, but for the wrong
reason, or they're getting me to look at
something totally unrelated. so they can
do something else.
>> So when I map what's going on in South
America, not as what he says, but as a
proxy with China, where we're dividing
the world in half, this is Thusidity's
trap playing out, and we go, okay, we
can't have China having relationship
with South America, that China is
building what's called the gold corridor
all along South America to try to get
people to see that um yuan is being
backed by gold. that the reason that
he's putting the gold into South America
is so that all of those countries go,
okay, we'll do business with you because
I don't have to trust the yuan. I can
trust the gold and the gold is actually
here in our countries and we can get
access to it and you don't control it in
any meaningful way. Then I'm like, oh, I
get it. We're going into Venezuela now.
I'm making a base assumption that
Venezuela feels like an easy mark to
Trump for some reason or he's more angry
with them. very possible that Maduro, if
he's mapping Maduro as having messed
with the 2016 election, which certainly
he had uh truth something out about that
previously. So, if he hates Maduro, sees
Maduro as an easy target, and that's
part of his strategy to take back the
Western Hemisphere from Chinese
influence, then I'm like, "Ah, okay,
cool. This all makes sense." But when
it's just like, uh, this is all about
the things he says it's about, I'm like,
"Why all of a sudden Venezuela?" So
that's where I'm like, okay, it's
entirely possible I just need to learn
more about like what happened. Did they
actually steal land? I think that there
is almost certainly going to come a day
where tensions between the US and China
escalate to the point that we kick out
Chinese land owners of uh farms and if
they're near like these are all rumors
but or rumors as to the motivation, but
there are Chinese nationals buying land
next to military bases and things like
that which seems very sus. Mhm.
>> So, it's like I could fully see us
saying, "Okay, we're going to buy these
back at fair market value because we now
have these certain restrictions." China
has all kinds of restrictions on who can
own what, including companies in China.
>> Uh, so that certainly turnabout is fair
play. So, on that, I mean, look, it it
is certainly not crazy for a nation to
say we're taking back our own resources.
I get that. I think Africa's future is
going to have to require that at least
some sort of partnership where you stop
getting strip mined for your resources
and you start mining your own resources
to sell finished product which have way
higher margins. So I could certainly see
>> Africa finally coming to that
realization. I've heard them talk about
it so I know it's on their radar but
they're not doing the things they would
need to do. So anyway, during that
process, they would have to nationalize
things presumably in the beginning, get
people out other countries uh or at
least push them down the supply chain so
they can still be in the country, but
you're going to be dealing with things
that we've already processed and turned
into this good where you can be a
partner with us, but you can't like own
a controlling interest, for instance.
So, if that's what's playing out in
Venezuela and they did us dirty in terms
of they didn't compensate us fairly for
all the investments that we had made,
okay, I see how he could be annoyed with
that. But the level that he's escalating
to on this specific country when I'm
guessing that we've run into things like
this before just begs the question, is
there something else? But I fully want
on the table. This could be I am not a
scholar on our relations with Venezuela.
Uh, and so it could just be something
that I am unaware of. Um, but my
politician is manipulating my gaze.
Alarms are going off extraordinarily
loudly.
>> And then, uh, this tweet's from Brian
Cranstein. Um,
Trump calling a complete and total
blockade of oil is actually an act of
war and declaring act of war without
Congress will lead to uh, illegit
illegal initiation of hostilities. A
president cannot legally start a
blockade of another country of their own
without a a formal authorization for use
of military force, aumf, or a
declaration of war. Neither exists for
Venezuela. Venezuela.
>> So he's he's a little bit wrong about
this. So this is why Trump keeps
declaring them as foreign terrorist
organizations because we have a totally
different playbook for that. So that
ultimately is what's going to have to be
adjudicated is is he able to declare
these groups foreign terrorist
organizations so that he has a totally
different set of powers.
um he's right in the absence of that. Um
but they're running a totally different
playbook. So if you want to stop Trump
from doing the things that he's doing,
you're going to have to go after his
ability to declare them terrorist
organizations.
The Supreme Court just ruled on on our
soil, I believe. We'd have to look up
the recent ruling, but I'm pretty sure
they just said, "Yeah, he can declare uh
groups on our soil as foreign terrorist
organizations." and thusly go after them
in that way. Um, this was all about the
immigration being able to boot people
out effectively without normal due
process.
>> Uh, so this is where this is all going
to get messy. This is all going to be
playing out in the courts.
>> But that's what they're going to have to
check. Until then, he's just going to
keep like all of a sudden the Girl
Scouts of America because he doesn't
like the ingredients in their cookie
their terrorist organization. He's going
to go after them. That is a joke
obviously people, but um that's his
game.
>> Yeah. Do you think this escalates into
four war? Because
>> I don't think so. But the way that So
again, I am currently mapping this
though, I am very open to realizing I
need to update my mental model. I'm
currently mapping this as a hemispheric
draw where we are saying, okay, we're
going to have to give up on China in the
east. And so China's going to take the
east, but we are going to put the hammer
down on the west. And so we're going to
take this back. Once I think of what's
happening right now as that, this all
begins to make sense. So, no, I don't
think it will escalate into war because
if we're able to isolate Maduro from
China and Russia, which is a question
mark right now, to be honest, but if we
can isolate him from China and Russia
and just say, "Listen, we know you're
going to move on Taiwan. We're not going
to say [ __ ] about it. Uh, but you're not
going to say [ __ ] about any of this and
we're going to take back the Western
Hemisphere and this becomes the way that
things settle down. Maduro will
understand. I'm isolated. I don't have
the deep pockets, the militaries that I
need to help back me up." So, I'm going
to have to either leave and take
whatever deal that I can get from Trump
and just get out of town because he's
serious and he's going to be going hard
in the paint. He'll say whatever he
needs to say to come in blockade. Uh,
but the fact that Trump is doing it as a
blockade tells me he does not want boots
on the ground. Like, he's just going to
keep taking your oil, keep taking your
ships, make it impossible for them to
get over to China, let you know we're in
control. there are things that we want
you to do and if you start doing them
then we'll suddenly start uh not
noticing that you're shipping oil to
China. But if you don't start doing
whatever insert thing he wants done here
um then we're going to keep going. We'll
get back to the show in just a second.
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this deal. All right, let's get back to
the show. If you're the guy behind the
guy, right, so you're not Trump, but
you're the guy whispering in Trump's ear
and you're like, "Okay, we've done all
these regime changes. It was always
sort of imperialism light. You realize
that's not popular anymore. We've got an
America first base. You've got to find a
way to keep them happy while still
getting the control that you want stroke
need. And so um you run a new playbook
and you're like we never gave a [ __ ]
about like having boots on the ground.
That that doesn't matter to us. We just
want control. M
>> uh then it's like hey we've got this new
idea foreign terrorist organization fly
under the cover of this is about drugs
and now just completely control the
seas. I mean this is me thinking out
loud so bear with me but this is like
the reverse of four decades since World
War II. The promise that we made to the
world was we're going to control your
security policy so that we can
effectively run the world. we're going
to control your security policy and in
exchange we're going to patrol the seas.
It's getting harder and harder to do
that and as drones become more and more
the cheap weapon of choice of every
gorilla style group out there um
patrolling the seas is probably just
going to be way too expensive for one
group to do. And so this is like sort of
a reverse of that. Like okay, we can't
control it by making it safe. So, we're
going to go to hostile territories and
be like, man, it'd be a real shame if
anything happened to this uh transit
lane here. Like, god, it'd be a shame if
the biggest military in the world was
just like, "Fuck you. This is my oil
tanker. Thank you very much." Like,
that's wild. And that's basically what
we're doing [snorts] now.
No doubt. Do I have alarm bells going
off for
the world ought to be a moral place?
Yes. So knowing with the full caveat of
me saying, "Hey, don't worry. My moral
alarm bells are ringing." I am merely
trying to think through the reality of
what is happening and what side of this
we want to be on.
>> I don't know that I'm right that that's
what's happening. But interesting
thought experiment that goes like this.
>> Um we we must remain the most dominant
power in the world.
As an American, you want that. You may
not think you do because it's very pearl
clutchy
>> reserve like for the reserve currency
status or
>> reserve currency to be uh the ones that
get to tell everybody else what to do.
Like Drew, oh god, this is so weird
having this conversation with you.
>> Uh being the CEO is awesome [laughter]
because it's like even though I and I
feel very comfortable making the
statement, I outwork everybody in this
company. No one wants to try to match me
hour for hour. I just promise. Mhm.
>> Uh,
however, if I want to take time off, I
can take time off whenever the [ __ ] I
want. And the knowing that I'm in
control that I decide when yes, when no
>> is its own like mental release valve,
that's awesome.
>> And I'm very aware of how powerful that
is. Now, for the last 80 years, America
has been that for the world. We're the
yes or no. Like it's the way that we
want it. Not that we'll always be moral,
but at least it's the way we want it.
And so when you go, ooh, like we could
lose that.
>> Mhm.
>> We're certainly losing it in the Eastern
Hemisphere. I don't see a path forward
for America to continue to have
influence like we had 10 or 15 years ago
in the East. No way. Like China's not
going to stand for that. So unless Peter
Zahan is right and uh China just
literally collapses because of
demography,
um
they're going to be the regional power
in the east. And so now we've got the
world split in half. So we'll be able to
boss people around in the west, but we
just lost half of the globe. And that's
going to create that escalatory rise
between us that will be very reminiscent
of the rise between capitalism and
communism in the 80s. And so that will
get dangerous first of all and then
second just everybody wants to be the
boss. So America I think rightly is not
just going to go quietly into that good
night because being pushed around by
other countries sucks.
>> Yeah. And so,
>> and we know we've been doing it, too.
>> Yeah. Like, imagine if another country
could come into us and be like, "Hey, we
don't like the way that you dealt with
all of the um you let's say when if if
we end up kicking Chinese nationals out
from owning farmland in America."
>> Big if, but let's say that we did that
at some point. Um, if China felt some
kind of way and they rolled up on the
ports
on the Pacific coast, uh, we'd be like,
"This is an act of war."
>> Yeah.
>> That would launch a thousand ships.
Like, I mean that. But we're doing it to
Venezuela. And Venezuela, hey, ready for
the quote again?
The way the world works, the strong will
do as they will, and the weak will
suffer as they must. because Venezuela
can't touch us militarily unless we're
dumb enough to set foot on their shore
and then you can just gorilla warfare us
into poverty. But if we don't make that
mistake, we can just stop all your
ships. You're not going to like, bro, 90
Blackhawks just like swirling around you
like good luck. Or
>> they shut down airspace over there, too.
>> That's what I'm saying. So, it's like
when you're this level of militarily
dominant,
>> um you can just tell people you're this
is how it's going to be and you're going
to like it.
>> Yeah. And so this is one of those where
oh god like it's icky. This whole thing
is icky and because
>> No, I was gonna say like I I understand
the Chinese uh implication of taking
Taiwan back because there's a national
pride there. We were all together once.
That's like us going after Alaska if
Russia ended up keeping it in the deal
or something. So I understand kind of
historically why I can kind of squint my
eye, close my eyes and say, "Okay, I
understand why Russia wants Ukraine
back. I can at least sort of kind of
justify it. But I feel like in this
America, Venezuela, this is weapons of
mass destruction 2.0. I feel like we're
in another country that is resourceheavy
and we should just try to get that
resources. Like I don't understand what
I understand. We're trying to fight
China by saying this is our side of the
court and we're trying to line up the
field. But the only positive I see of us
doing this is we're getting resources
from them and that country is losing
their resources. I don't see any other
historical tie. I don't see national
security threats. Um, and I'm just
honestly not buying the whole they're
the hub of cocaine.
>> Yeah, it does not seem like they're the
hub of shipping cocaine into the US.
That's for sure. I do think the drugs
are largely not entirely but largely a
distraction.
>> But again, when I map this as a US
versus China, you don't have a choice.
>> So, if you're going to now whether
Venezuela is the right battleground,
that I cannot speak to. I've not looked
at this closely enough,
>> but when I think, okay, you have to draw
a line somewhere. So, where are you
going to draw a line on the map?
>> East west makes all the sense in the
world given how hard it is to cross
oceans. Cool. So, you draw a line and
you say, "We're going to," you obviously
don't broadcast this, but you draw a
line. You say, "We're going to let China
slowly take over Asia, and we're just
going to do very little to stop that."
But on the west, we're going to start
building fortifications now. And so if
you have somebody um in your hemisphere
that is partnering too closely with
China, then you're going to do whatever
you need to do to disempower them to get
a pro-America
um person in power in that government.
And so that as far as I can tell, that's
the play right now. They are trying to
boot Maduro without putting boots on the
ground, without doing traditional
assassination techniques. But they've
got a hit on him. So it's like, yeah,
this is one step removed. So that feels
like exactly what's playing out. When I
map it like that, I'm like, oh yeah, all
every behavior makes sense.
>> When I map it as anything else, it
leaves holes.
>> All right, let's jump down down under,
mate. Um,
>> thoughts and prayers to the Bondi Bondi
Beach uh shooting and the victims. Um, I
saw one article is a 10-year-old girl.
She just got her face painted.
Despicable news, despicable things
that's happened on there. I was so sad.
Uh but Navidid Akrum has officially been
charged with murder. He's a surviving
suspect in the Sunday's mass shooting.
Uh his father say was killed. Um
ICE they claimed allegiance to ISIS
earlier. Allegedly they were radicalized
in the Philippines before moving to
Australia to commit this uh act. Um this
is wild. And on the backs of foreignly
in Syria um ISIS just killed two
military officials and a a Syrian
translator. So, it seems like ISIS is
coming back. Like, this is just so
crazy. And it was on the first day of a
Hanukkah celebration, so it seems very
anti-Jew coded. Um, how do you feel
about this uh mass shooting, terrorist
attack?
>> Yeah, it it it's brutal. And, uh, all of
this is begging the question of where
this is all going from. Uh,
[sighs and gasps]
is the battle against Islamist
extremists going to dominate the next
10, 20 years? So yeah, I don't know, but
it certainly uh it certainly seems like
they are trying to export
their ideology across the globe. They
certainly are far better at having
children. So their birth rates are very
impressive and we should be extremely
envious.
uh obviously you have to be extremely
careful to delineate between Muslim and
Islamist
with the extremist uh attachment going
only to the Islamic uh side of things.
So if you start thinking okay wait a
second this they really want a global
caliphate which means a they want the
world to be under an Islamic um
government. So, a religious theocracy
that runs um under the laws of the
Quran. Uh so, if that really is the goal
and they have been very patient and very
diligent over the last I don't know how
many decades that this has been a either
intentional or unintentional but
ultimately the same effect uh of them
doing this. But you're seeing that pop
up more and more all across Europe.
Wild. uh Canada, you're starting to see
it a little bit in America. And so there
are varying degrees of um immune
responses from different countries. So
this is a big part of why you're seeing
more and more countries across Europe go
to the right protectionist, get these
foreigners out, like that whole vibe,
protect my culture.
>> Um so we'll see if this really is
something that escalates. It's really
interesting. I know how much flak Sam
Harris catches, but he's really had his
finger on this since 9/11 and been
saying his whole message and I Lord
knows Sam should speak for himself, so
please take what I say with a grain of
salt, but my interpretation of what Sam
says goes something like this. Uh,
Christianity used to be a horrific um,
allconsuming mob that swept across the
Middle East back in the 1400s and we
were constantly killing and pillaging
and so we had reforms and ultimately
Christianity becomes far more peaceful.
So, please don't confuse what's going on
within um the Islamic extremists with
Muslims themselves, but they do need a
reform. And so, they need to find a way
to soften the edges, to reinterpret
what's going on in the Quran, um so that
you can get a more moderate version of
this, export the life out of that, um
and really let it be a religion of peace
as it so often claims to be. Uh and the
push back that I've heard on that or
actually I shouldn't say that the
compendium that I've heard on that is
that part of the problem is that
compared to the Bible which is much
longer especially when you take Old
Testament New Testament the Quran is
just so succinct and direct and it's
just like do this.
>> Uh so it becomes a lot harder for people
to start selectively ignoring passages.
So uh we'll see how it plays out. But
yes, this is absolutely horrific. You
obviously do not need um religion to get
behind this to have a mass shooting.
We've had plenty of mass shootings just
from young disaffected men. Typically,
white men uh tend to be your uh
progenerator of that kind of thing. So,
I don't want this to seem like Bondi
could only this kind of mass shooting
could only have been something uh pushed
forward by an Islamist extremist, but
not talking about that would be stupid.
Um, not talking about the rise of
anti-semitism would be stupid. And the
thing that scares me most is not
understanding how all of this plays into
um the pograms throughout history. Dude,
when things go economically arry, Jews
start getting killed on mass. Period.
End of story. Like it it just repeats
over and over and over. And this is why
I'm like, if you find yourself saying
the Jews are the problem, stop. Like you
are falling into a historical pattern
that is so like repetitive, it's
ridiculous. And the real question to ask
is in times of plenty, why aren't you
worried about it? Because if your whole
beef is just, oh, I don't like the way
that they approach the world. You think
that some of their modus operandi is
immoral or whatever, address that when
everybody's calm and blood isn't
boiling. When you start doing this kind
of thing at a time where everybody's on
edge and you know that it's a tinder box
that people emotionally will just spark
and go crazy,
>> history tells you the people will spark,
go crazy, and start killing them. So
that's where I'm like, hey, case in
point. So, Bondi Beach definitely
carries that extra punch of like this
tends to be a wave that continues to
grow and grow and grow and grow until um
Jews really have uh very little safety
left. So,
>> yeah,
>> it it does seem um very heightened right
now, but it almost reminds me of the air
traffic controller debacles that were
happening at the beginning of the year.
And every time a plane had an issue or
anybody was late or something like that,
we're like, "See, look, it's Trump. See,
look, it's Trump." But then when you
went to the statistics, you looked on
mass, you said, "Oh, okay. This
happens." And this isn't the most that
it's ever been this year. This isn't
even the most that it's ever been last
year. This is just the new renowned
focus of the news lately. Um, terrorists
are going to terror. There's been terror
attacks all the time. Do you think that
there there is something specific in
this moment that is rising?
Anti-semitism or
>> hardcore. This is a historical pattern
that looks like this. Um, it is very
smart to master money. I don't care who
you are. I don't care your ethnicity,
nothing. For whatever reason, Jews
actually really [ __ ] take that [ __ ]
seriously. And so when they um are
teaching their like this is how to be
successful as a Jewish person, one of
the things that they're talking about
getting into business, getting into
positions of power, understanding money,
putting yourself at that center. Um, and
that's just smart. So part of the drum
that I'm beating is just desperately
trying to get people to understand how
money works. And so anyway, they do
that. They get into positions of um
economic power, which is very brilliant.
This is only going to be like a tiny
fraction of them, as would be true
anywhere. Uh but because that's
reinforced within the community, because
the Jewish community certainly has a
strong propensity to help each other, uh
they'll end up getting into these
positions of power. Nobody thinks about
it in times of plenty when things start
going bad suddenly it's not that oh
they've just like anything else where
you'll find any given ethnic group like
one person gets into something and then
they bring the next and the next and the
next that's just how it goes especially
when you're the minority.
Uh instead of looking at it like oh yeah
that's just where they're drawn to their
community hoovers up a bunch of talent
into that area. um you start going, it's
a cabal.
>> It's a secret cabal and it works against
us. They're the enemy because they're a
successful minority. Nothing will get
you killed faster than being a
successful minority, by the way. So,
they're a successful minority. They're
identifiable. They isolate. Oh god, you
get into like they've tried a simulation
isolation blah blah blah. Setting that
aside for a second, uh it is almost
always perceived as they are the
outsider. They are successful. They are
successful at our expense. So they are
taking from us rather than they've just
mastered how money works. They are
taking from us. Now listen, whenever you
get a group that works amongst itself,
they're going to wield undue power. It
doesn't matter if you're uh if that's
true in video games, trading cards,
business, whatever. Like you get you can
create these very powerful groups. So
when you do that, there's a religious
line. Uh you're an identifiable group by
name, by sight, whatever. And it's money
where people really take that [ __ ]
seriously at all times and especially
when it feels like the pie is shrinking.
So the pattern goes pi start shrinking.
People can identify that they are
plugged into the money scene. Uh they
believe that they're doing that at their
expense that they are the other and they
go on the attack. And so this then ends
up becoming this very easily
identifiable blameable group that people
just build resentment for historically.
uh and so they target them and go after
them. And like if you take humans as a
species, there's two ways to look at
what ends up happening with Jewish
people. Way number one is to go, "Ooh,
this is weird. Us as humans, there's
like this one subgroup amongst us,
right? Like draw the bubble around all
of humanity for a second. We're all the
same. We're all one." Like to an alien
that would be true.
>> Like these are all the homo sapiens.
Okay. Well, for whatever weird ass
reason, homo sapiens keep turning on
this one little group.
>> Cool. super bizarre, not a good look on
humanity, in my opinion. Uh, way number
two is to go, "Oh, that's weird. This
one little group of homo sapiens, they
keep [ __ ] things up." And depending
on which side of that line, that frame
of reference you fall under, depends on
whether you uh are rolling up with the
guns on Bondi Beach or you're mortified.
And the the great thing, if you can say
that, is it was a Muslim that disarmed
the gunman. And I could not be happier
about that. So that it just brings into
stark relief that people can see this
>> trying to make any group Jews, Muslims,
>> even uh people that are ardent believers
in an Islamic state, it's never going to
be monolithic.
>> And so being very careful to treat
people uh as humans, as individuals, not
blinding yourself to patterns by any
means. Um, but yeah, trying to stay as
sober as you can to not just cram
everybody into one group.
>> The White House uh had a profile done by
the Vanity Fair uh by Vanity Fair. The
interviewer allegedly was going through
the White House over the last year. She
had access to um meetings. There was
even a portrait in there that kind of
showed the whole uh Trump cabinet. So,
it seemed like this is like one of those
backstage at a concert type journalist
who was actually like in the day-to-day
life with them. Um, but some of the
quotes that came out weren't too
flattering of the Trump presidency.
Let's uh cover it.
>> House Chief of Staff Susie Wilds telling
Vanity Fair, "Trump wants to keep on
blowing boats up until Maduro cries
uncle." That rare interview from Trump's
closest aid is providing new insight on
a wide range of issues. She describes
Trump as having an alcoholic's
personality, noting that Trump, who does
not drink, operates with a view that
there's nothing he can't do, nothing,
zero, nothing. Whiles also saying Vice
President J. D. Vance has been a
conspiracy theorist for a decade. And
while adding Attorney General Pam Bondi
completely whiffed her handling of the
Epstein files. Wilds does acknowledge
the president himself is in the Epstein
files but not doing anything awful,
saying the two men were sort of young
single playboys together. In response to
the article,
>> So then, yep, in response, Susie Wilds
didn't like it. He tweeted, "The article
published early this morning is a
disingenuously framed hit piece on me
and the finest president, White House
staff, and the cabinet in history.
Significant context was disregarded and
much of what I and others said about the
team and the president was left out of
the story. I assume after reading it
that this was done to paint an
overwhelmingly chaotic and negative
narrative about the president and our
team." Um, spinners are going to spin.
So, is it just what the Vanity Fair was
like, I see an opportunity here and take
these out of context,
>> of course. So, well, first of all, one
thing, uh, imagine that the journalist
has a frame of reference that points
what they look at and what they see. So,
you don't even have to go all the way to
nefarious, though that might be
warranted for her to hear the things
that she wants to hear from Susie. So, I
remember one time, I think I've told
this story before, talking to this guy
that I worked with, and person A, um,
the person I was talking to hated person
A and loved person B. And I went on a
business trip with person A and person
B.
>> Mhm.
>> And person A, the hated person, saved
our ass. Uh, because person B, the loved
person, was completely [ __ ] up. Like,
it was wild in the room. I was like,
what's happening? And person A comes in,
saves the day. It was awesome. I come
back and tell the person I'm talking to
who hates person A, "Person A saved the
day." And he goes, "I knew it. That
[ __ ] guy's a moron." And I was like,
"Wait, I just said person A saved the
day." And he was like, "Dude, I knew it.
I told you that guy was stupid." And I'm
like, "What is happening right now?"
[laughter] I'm like, "Stop. Person A
saved the day." And he was like, "Oh
shit." He was like, "I so think that guy
is dumb." Even though you did say that
twice. He was like, "I couldn't hear
you." Because my mental model was so
person B good, person A bad. And I was
like, it literally that left an
indelible mark on my psyche.
>> In fact, that's probably one of the
reasons I was like, "Holy [ __ ] people
are really trapped inside their frame of
reference." Like seeing that play out in
real time cuz the guy that I was talking
to is incredibly smart,
>> but he literally could not hear the
words I was saying, it was wild. So
yeah, there's there's that. Now, she may
also just be a political hack and be
totally nefarious. So there's also that.
Now, I very rarely do interviews in
print. Like even back at like the height
of my Quest days where I was getting a
lot of requests for print, I learned a
very powerful lesson early on. So I got
interviewed for somebody who wanted to
know how somebody as successful as me
like manage their time. And so I was
explaining to them how I use
transitional moments. And I'm talking
about how I'm like always learning
something and I uh read while I'm
brushing my teeth or I read while I'm
cooking or walking or whatever, like
I've got headphones in all the time. I
read while I'm falling asleep when I
wake up. When I say they made me sound
like a psychopath in that interview, I
was like, "Wait now, they did not
misquote me, but by stripping out the
most like the one where I was being
tongue-in-cheek or funny and then not in
any way showing how we were having a
playful conversation when I said it."
And then she just lifted that one line
and was like, "Tom billio has a very
extreme way of living that I don't think
most people would like. Insert whatever
the quote was. I don't remember." And I
was like, well, I'm not doing print
anymore. So, because at least on a
podcast, like what I've always said to
people, because the team will be like,
well, will you go on the show? It's
probably going to be antagonistic. And
I'm like, they can't make me say
something I don't believe. So, I have no
problem going on the show. Now, if they
deceptively edit, and we've all seen
that is very possible to do, then I
would have beef. But typically on a
podcast, you don't get that. I certainly
haven't had real problems with it.
>> So, but print is wild. So I the thing
that I'm most shocked about is why on
earth did Susie go to Vanity Fair which
is not exactly going to be a friendly
and I love that they will go out and do
things with unfriendly people
>> but print like print is the easiest
place to make somebody look crazy or to
paint a narrative. So anyway that was
just weird. I don't know why she did it.
Um she did it but Donald Trump Jr. who
you would expect if he thought, okay,
that Suzie is trying to do something now
to go on the attack on Trump, he came
out, defended her, like unequivocally.
It was just like, she's amazing. She's
the best person for my dad. Like, love,
love, love.
>> So, um I will assume that there's no
fire here.
>> Yeah, I'm not reading this whole entire
thing, but Susie Wilds is by far the
most effective and trustworthy chief of
staff the president uh the chief of
staff that my father has ever had. Um
she was a loyal fighter from him from
the moment she came on board. So
>> and he goes on to say like listen
there's nothing here. She's amazing.
Taken out of context.
>> Yeah. So it's interesting. But yeah, to
your point it it's did they set them up
by going on Vanity Fair? It didn't seem
like a friendly but
>> that was that was like Yeah, that was a
a vanity like literally a vanity play by
Susie like oh Vanity Fair wants to
profile me. Of course I would love to
go.
>> I don't know. She's always assued that
kind of stuff. So, that was the only
thing where I was like, this is not
somebody who like craves the spotlight,
but anyway, I haven't read the full
article. So, um I will say that she
strikes me as a kind of person that
you'd want on your team. Here's one of
the weirdest things about being a CEO,
and I imagine this is times a gazillion
if you're the president. People are
afraid to tell you the truth.
>> And they might be afraid to tell you the
truth because they're worried they're
going to get fired. They might be afraid
to tell you the truth because they don't
want you to associate them with bad
things. But it's like the person that
will actually tell you the truth is by
far the most valuable person on your
team. Uh if you're wired like me, like I
am so convinced that the only thing that
matters is to know what's true. I don't
want to be uh overly flattered. Listen,
if I did something that's good, I want
to know for sure and that always feels
lovely. But the thing that I want is to
know how the world actually works. This
is why I call it the only belief that
matters. The only belief that matters is
that you can get better at something if
you put time and energy into it. So,
it's like, "Hey, Tom, you're doing this
thing. You're completely [ __ ] it up."
You have a goal and because you're
[ __ ] that thing up. You're not going
to achieve your goal. So, I'm like,
"Wait a second. I've gotten this far in
life doing that thing poorly, and now
you're going to help me do it well, and
all I have to do is take the sting of
like, oh, currently I suck at this."
Yeah. Word. Because I know how potent
goals, goal achievement is. Like, you
can actually get things in life, do
things in life that other people can't
get or do. And I'm like, "Okay." And so,
wait, I just want to be clear. All I
have to do is take the emotional
self-esteem hit that I suck at this.
Yes. Okay. Like that's how I look at the
world. I'm watching other people
psychological immune system in full
swing lying to themselves about who they
are and what they're good at. And I'm
just like, but hold on. You're bad at it
now, but you don't have to be bad at it
forever. But you will never get good at
it if you can't admit that you're
currently bad at it. So, you do have to
take the psychological hit of
it. That's not fun. It's not fun for me.
It's not fun for anybody. But it unlocks
something so useful.
It's not how most people live.
>> Yeah. All right. Well, we'll keep
look at the situation. I don't know. I
feel like it's it's over. Like, Vanity
Fair got their article out. They got
their clicks. They got their magazines,
the subscriptions. Like, you can't undo
print. I feel like once it's out there,
it's out there. Politics is a reality
show that we all just want to watch.
When I decided to shift the show over
into politics, I was looking at um what
what are the engines cuz the reason I
wanted to move away from the phase one
empowerment stuff was I was bored out of
my mind and was very much afraid that it
was spiritual entertainment that people
look the 2% are going to change 98% are
not. And so here I am uh interviewing
people that were boring me to tears.
They were all saying the same thing over
and over and over and only 2% of people
are going to change anyway. So I was
like, I can't keep doing this. So I
needed an engine. What's going to be the
engine of the show? So when I was doing
Mindset, the engine of the show was
someone writes a book on Mindset. We
have them come on, I give them the best
interview around that book that's ever
been done. Great.
>> Uh then I was like, there are better
engines than that. And there are three
incredible engines.
Sports,
religion, and politics.
And I was like politics and in politics
obviously is money and all that. Um that
was the only one I was like oh I could
stay interested in that forever because
it remains very consequential.
>> There's obviously a reason that I lean
economic uh whereas other people might
lean towards something else in that
bucket. But um it is it's a huge engine.
So, it is
you're going to have like a neverending
list of things to talk about once you
understand that people want these
engines because they are the thing that
like occupies their mind
>> from an entertainment value perspective.
So, there's a reason that I liken sports
to religion, religion to politics. Like,
it's a thing. It's a thing that sparks
strong emotion and makes people want to
invest their time in understanding who
the players are, what they're doing,
right? It could be a player in Congress,
it could be a player on the court,
doesn't matter. It gives people that
same sense of I'm investing in this
drama. We've got this huge wall of debt
that we have to deal with and at the
rates of interest that we were at,
we we will literally bankrupt the nation
if we were to refinance at those rates.
That's why people like Lyn Alden were
like, "Guys, there's no universe in
which they don't lower rates. They have
to. It's not a question. They there's no
option." So he can make all the noise
that he wants by 2026. He's going to
have to lower those rates because he's
not going to suicide the US economy. Now
we'll we'll kill it. We'll poison it
slowly. Like we'll make it smoke like 40
packs of cigarettes a day. Uh but we're
100%
going to do the money printing sticktick
until we hyperinflate. Like there there
is nothing else. You're just trying to
buy yourself time. You kick the can down
the road in the hopes that AI creates a
productivity miracle and you grow your
way out of this
>> and
you don't have anything else to do. Your
only other option is a beautiful
deleveraging. And I wish he had called
that something else like a violent
restructuring because that's at least
honest. Um so your only other option is
a violent restructuring that will just
devastate a ton of people. uh
potentially spin you into a depression,
but nonetheless, like it's the only
thing that you can do other than
guarantee the patient dies down the
road. So, this is the moment where the
Fed is doing a bad thing. They
absolutely should not be lowering rates.
They should be raising rates or at a
minimum leaving them where they are, but
they can't.
>> So, now what? Now what is you are going
to fuel bubbles and when bubbles So, now
let's pull up the Schiller thing. I have
something that I want to read to people.
So, uh, the Schiller PE ratio just
crossed 40 for only the third time in
history. The Schiller PE ratio, also
called the cape, cycllically adjusted
price to earnings, measures how
expensive the stock market is relative
to its long-term earnings power, not
just this year's profits. So if you
explain that in plain English, the stock
market price is divided by the average
inflation adjusted earnings over 10
years. Okay, so the key difference from
a normal P& ratio is it uses 10 years of
earnings which smooth smooths out booms
and busts so recessions.
>> Uh it's inflation adjusted so it's real
purchasing power, not nominal
noise effectively. Uh it's designed to
spot bubbles. That's the whole point.
Like is this thing overpriced? Now to
give you an idea what normal looks like
historically since the late 1800s. So
over 120 30 years. Uh the long-term
average is like 16 to 17.
We're over 40. Okay. So it's 16 to 17. A
cheap market where it's like whoa,
what's going on? Is anything less than a
10. An expensive market is anything over
25.
Extreme bubble territory is anything
over 30. And crossing 40 is historically
insane.
>> And we're at 40 right now.
>> And we've only done it three times. Now,
why is this a big deal? Uh the Schiller
PE greater than 40 has occurred during
1929.
You might have heard of a a famous thing
there called the great stock market
crash, the great depression, uh 1999 to
2000, the dotcom crash and 2021 to
present which is now. So in the first
two cases, real returns over the next 10
to 15 years were flat to negative.
Valuations didn't grow into it. Prices
fell or stagnated uh while earnings
caught up. So there is no historical
precedent where buying at these levels
led to strong long-term returns. Like it
took Cisco just just now like a week ago
just now
>> got back to where it was during the dot
boom.
>> That's 25 years.
>> That's wild.
>> So nobody wants their money locked up
for 25 years. So
>> why marketees?
>> Yeah. You you don't want to look at this
market and go, "Oh my god, number go up.
This is amazing. We're all good.
Everything's wonderful." Now at the same
time, you don't just want to pull out of
the market.
>> That's what I was thinking. Oh, dollar
cost average. Look, because the future
is so uncertain, I'm always just dollar
cost average. The the odds that you get
the timing right are effectively zero.
Unless you are Ray Dallio levels of I've
got 150 researchers that all they do is
think about this every day. I've got an
AI that trades in milliseconds. Uh my
fiber optic cable is like 9 millimeters
from the terminals that they're trading
with to make sure that this [ __ ] is like
the fastest fastest fastest ever. If you
would know how to frontr run
Bridgewwater um on a trade, then by all
means do it. If you don't know how to
frontr run a trade, know that other
people are front running you. So it's
like you just don't do it. That's not
the play. The play is to go okay over
very long periods of time, what usually
ends up winning dollar cost average in
to a very broad basket of goods, having
enough cash on hand that you can survive
a uh extended period of time. To me, six
months is the absolute minimum. Like
>> dude,
>> yeah, you you if you have to move back
into your parents' basement or get five
friends in a studio apartment so that
you can save up money, literally do
that.
>> Um so to get six months on hand, that's
got to be the goal. I keep like three
years of cash on hand. Um just again
peak paranoia. I can't see the future
clearly. Nobody can. So um you want to
give yourself maximum optionality. Now
I'm still dollar cost averaging in. Um
but the I'm not like hey because the
things have gone up so much that I'm
just like dumping in. This is the great
time. It's like I get most paranoid when
everything seems like it's only
>> not investment advice. Not investment
advice. Talk to your financial advisors.
We can't get to two times in one
episode. Um what about can I just buy
gold?
>> Gold. Silver.
>> You can but just same thing. Be
paranoid. Dollar cost average in assume
that you can't see the future clearly. M
>> uh there are no such thing as sure bets.
There have been plenty of people that
had their money trapped in gold for like
20 years because gold went flat and just
wasn't the thing. And even though yes,
it is exactly the kind of thing that you
want to own as an inh uh inflation
hedge, it doesn't mean that the market
values it as such. So you have to be
very careful. Um the odds that your
money will retain the like sort of
average price of gold. Yes. But if
gold's like really doing a runup, you
could get way ahead of yourself for a
very long time. And gold right now has
been on a runup. Now, full disclosure, I
am dollar cost averagin