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Language: en
Trump's shift from being the peace
president to the smash and grab
president is just random chaos. You do
not understand the moment we are living
in. This moment is an unprecedented
moment of disruption and danger and what
America does next is going to have a
massive impact on the world order and
your finances. In a turn of events so
sudden it has given even some of Trump's
most diehard supporters whiplash. Trump
has gone from settling a bunch of wars
all over the world to flash invasions,
snatching up dictators, and threatening
military action against Europe if
Denmark doesn't hand over Greenland. He
said, and this is almost a direct quote,
Greenland has to be ours for national
security reasons. We are going to get it
and we can do this. The easy way or the
hard way. The man refuses to rule out
military invasion of one of Denmark's
territories.
Denmark, a country in Europe. This is
wild. It is a turn of events that
foremost seems completely incoherent.
Most people, especially [music]
those that already hate Trump, are
thinking this is simply Trump being the
dictator they always knew him to be. In
fairness, that's a pretty reasonable
take for someone to have, given that
Trump has explicitly said he doesn't
care about international law. And the
only thing that governs what he does is
his own morality. But if you think Trump
is just some power mad lunatic running
riot, you're not seeing what's actually
happening. And I don't think it takes a
big leap to get to the heart of what's
really going on. We'll get into more of
this shortly, but first you have to
understand the liberal world order has
broken down. [music] It is once again
obvious that the world we live in is
actually governed by raw power and there
is no country currently more powerful
than the US and Trump knows that. But he
also knows that as of right now today
our power is an ice cream cone melting
in the sun of inflation and [music]
reckless spending. and he only sees one
way forward. The reality is that Trump
is not afraid to bully. And if he's
going to keep America in the lead, even
if only in the Western Hemisphere, then
he's going to have to press the
advantage that we currently have because
it's not going to last forever. While it
does, Trump believes we need to cement
our authority. And given the
consequences of not doing so, he's
almost certainly right about that. As
such, Trump is running what I'll call a
dominance or bust strategy. It's an
insane gamble that puts the entire world
order at risk. But honestly, it's better
than capitulating to Claus Schwab and
the global elite who have given us 30
years or more of an increasingly
K-shaped economy or just simply managing
America's decline and letting China
become the global hegeimon bullying
[music] everyone. But no matter how
necessary reaffirming our leadership may
be, Trump's dominance or bus strategy is
incredibly
risky. And if it doesn't pay off, the
dollar could decline rapidly and or we
could see ourselves taking another
massive step towards a literal World War
II. So, here is the very uncomfortable
truth. What Trump is doing right now
isn't about one man's ego, or at least
not just about one man's ego. It's about
a nation locked in a cold war with its
largest rival, jockeying for global
position and re-establishing our
dominance so that we don't have to face
any unnecessary challengers who might
think we're weak. The global order
America helped build after World War II
gave us decades of prosperity. But over
time, it morphed into something
extractive, something that was
financialized and globalized and allowed
the infamous global elite to use debt
and money printing to quietly rob the
masses while rewarding the connected
[music] few. So to understand what's
happening and respond in a way that will
allow you to win even if at only the
individual level even if cracks appear
in society that gets serious enough to
disrupt countries. [music] You have to
understand the following. This is a
populist moment. They have happened many
times before in history. They are
moments of tremendous inequality. And
the politicians that rise up during
these times are what is known as [music]
strong men. They're bullies. They come
in left-leaning flavors and
right-leaning [music] flavors. And
regardless of what side they're on,
they're elected to flip the tables over,
slap the other team around and grab as
many slices of a shrinking pie as they
can for their own side. Trump did not
create the frustration that led to
populism. He was summoned by it. [music]
And no one should be surprised that
citizens would hold hands around a
summoning circle to call forth a chaos
agent when globalism combined with debt
and inflation has made it impossible for
the average person to get ahead. He was
elected by the people who could feel
their future being stolen from them.
When inflation began eroding the value
of the dollar, asset prices skyrocketed
as people fled the dollar. and the
average person who doesn't own assets,
which is the vast majority of humanity,
got crushed. That's what happens when
the system is rigged to the benefit of
elites. Therefore, it was only a matter
of time before a figure like Trump
arrived on the scene. The more
inequality, the angrier people get. And
once they're struggling to make ends
meet, they will find a populist leader
to come and flip the tables. Okay,
hopefully that explains why people want
a change in America. But I know it does
not explain why Trump is being so
reckless with the entire world order
that has given us so much prosperity. So
why is Trump being so aggressive
internationally,
especially with our allies? Why risk
overplaying our hand? Our entire way of
life is predicated on being able to
export some of our inflation. And that
only works if the dollar is the reserve
currency. And if we piss off enough
countries, they will find a way to get
out from under the dollar. In fact, even
without our current recklessness,
countries have been trying to get out
from under the dollar for decades. In
[music] the late 90s, over 70% of global
trade happened in dollars. Now we're
down into the 50s. If it drops too much
lower, there won't be enough appetite
for US debt to continue to prop up our
way of life because our way of life
requires us to find buyers for roughly
$2 trillion a year in debt just to cover
the annual federal deficit. Given that,
why won't Trump rule out invading
Greenland? To understand that, we're
going to need some historical context.
[music] America came out of World War II
in a position no other nation could even
dream of. Europe and Asia were in ruins.
Bombed out cities, shattered
infrastructure, entire economies wiped
out. The US though was virtually
untouched. No major damage on the
homeland. [music] We had the factories
still humming, the workforce intact, and
we emerged holding a massive chunk of
the world's gold reserves. And [music]
Europe owed us billions from wartime
loans and aid. That leverage was massive
and we used it. We made the dollar the
world's reserve currency at Bretonwoods.
The whole economic system of the world
was built around the dollar. [music]
People, companies, and countries the
world over traded in dollars, settled in
dollars, and held their savings in
dollars. That gave us the power to run
the world's strongest economy, largely
built on debt. We could borrow cheaply,
spend massively, buy the world's goods,
and everyone else was forced to cater to
us. It allowed us to build an incredible
way of life as Americans. For decades,
it was rising wages, cheap imports, home
ownership, the full American dream.
Unfortunately, that age of seemingly
endless prosperity lulled us to sleep,
allowed us to fall prey [music] to what
every empire before us has fallen prey
to debt and the subsequent need to print
money. Inevitably, when you hold the
reserve currency, your government and
your central bank are going to abuse the
privilege. Everyone ever has done it. As
such, ours created money out of thin air
through what's known as fractional
reserve lending. And then they charge
interest on this money that they just
created out of thin air. The Fed became
the ultimate money printer. We made
anyone trading, settling, and saving
dollars share in the burden of our
budget shortfalls, and the world simply
had to accept it because the dollar was
the only game in town. Fast forward to
the end of the Cold War and the USSR
collapses in 1991. Suddenly, it's a
unipolar world. America stands alone as
the superpower. But globalism starts
accelerating like never [music] before.
And elites worldwide begin to understand
how they can abuse this system. Bankers,
politicians, multinational corporations,
the Klouse Schwab of it all. They all
begin to fantasize about coordinating
everything. It would allow them to
extract value from everyone everywhere
all at once using debt. No more national
barriers getting in the way. And thus,
the era of the global K-shaped economy
begins to boom, and the populace begins
to hate the global [music] elite. The
top 1% pull away from everyone else at
warp speed through asset ownership. and
everyone else, unbeknownst to them, gets
robbed blind via inflation. And thus,
the populace begins to hold hands around
the summoning circle to find that agent
of chaos that is going to give a big
middle finger to the global elite to
break [music] the world order. And then
a series of crises hit one after
another. The.com bubble bursts in 2000,
weakening the system. The 2008 housing
collapse sends the global economy into
freefall. And then CO 19 pushes the
world economy to the edge and all the
people around the summoning circle have
found their man because each time the
response is the same. [music] Money
printer go burr. And that drives
inequality massively. More debt and more
money printing to avoid acute
catastrophe.
But it's going to bring a prolonged much
bigger catastrophe down the road because
trillions of dollars get poured into the
system. Balance sheets are ballooned,
interest rates slashed to zero or below.
And all of it worked, but only in the
short term. The markets roared back, but
the debt kept growing. [music] And every
bill eventually comes due. And that's
where populism comes from. [music] When
the system feels rigged, when inequality
hits extremes, people do not politely
ask for change. They summon a rule
breaker. Trump [music] and so many other
leaders around the world were brought
forth specifically to break things, to
smash the rules, [music] to reject the
globalist one world government agenda to
close the border and put America first.
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get back to the show. So, when you look
at Trump's aggressive posture, the
threats, the hideous bullying, the
America first hard ball, [music]
recognize it as a response, for better
or worse, to a system that stopped
working for most people a long time ago.
Now, to complicate matters even more,
all of this is playing out inside of a
historical pattern known as Thucus's
trap. It is a tragic sequence of events
first documented by the ancient Greek
historian Thusidities nearly 2400 years
ago. What he noticed was that war
becomes inevitable whenever a rising
power threatens to displace an
established power. [music] In the last
several hundred years, 75% of the time
we see a setup like the rise of China
threatening an established power like
America, the result has been war. It's
certainly not an ironclad law of nature,
but at 75% the odds are definitely not
in our favor, and the costs of losing
power are often dramatic. This brutal
reality elevates the risks of Trump's
aggression right now that much more. And
tragically, it also makes his actions
that much more predictable. On the scale
of history, humans are largely
predictable. And that's why being
paranoid right now is historically
justified. We are living through the
classic setup. The United States is the
ruling power. China is the rising power.
They are rapidly ascending in economic
size, military capability, technological
innovation, and global influence. The
fear is mutual. America worries about
losing its edge, its dollar dominance,
its ability to shape rules and
alliances. [music] And China believes
that its moment has come to claim what
it believes is rightfully its own,
namely complete control of its own
sphere of influence and an opportunity
to quickly pass the US as the dominant
player on the world stage. This
structural tension explains the urgency
behind Trump's dominance or bust
strategy. Doing nothing means [music]
manage decline. Watching China quietly
overtake us in key areas, erode our
alliances, and challenge the dollar
outright. Ostensibly, that would end our
current debtfueled way of life. In that
light, Trump's aggressive moves, the
bullying, the threats, the hard ball
over Greenland, Venezuela, Iran, and
others are a gamble to gain control of a
chessboard as quickly as possible before
our turn is over. If Trump succeeds, we
secure resources, control energy flows,
enforce the Monroe Doctrine, and keep
our adversaries out of our hemisphere.
We block China's access to cheap oil. We
control new lanes of travel, make our
sanctions more enforcable, and we force
the world back into line under US
leadership. And that, if all goes well,
buys us time to grow our way out of the
death trap, resolidify the dollar as the
world's reserve currency, and hold power
for another generation, possibly more.
But if it fails, if we overplay our
hand, alienate [music] too many allies,
push adversaries into tighter alliances
with each other, or trigger retaliation,
the current world order could unravel
rapidly. The dollar's reserve status
would erode faster. Inflation would
balloon, markets could crash under the
uncertainty. By the way, that's already
a risk. And the kindling of proxy
conflicts could ignite into something
much worse. Now, as each of us decides
how to react to the hyper uncertainty
that we're all facing right now,
examining what the America First
doctrine actually means when applied to
the big issues of today is going to be
critically important. Doing so should at
least give us some indication of our
likely direction of travel. All right,
first let's start with a definition.
America first isn't about ideology or
morality without any sugar coating. I
think it goes something like this.
Regardless of sovereignty, historical
alliances, international agreements, or
even international law, America will do
whatever advantages America most [music]
right now. Please note, I am not saying
how I think it should be. I'm just
saying how I think it actually [music]
is. It's largely a first order
consequence mentality [music] and it
goes if it strengthens the US security,
gives us access to critical resources,
gives us more global control, improves
our energy dominance or gives us
economic leverage and especially if it
does any or all of that and weakens
rivals like China, then it's on the
table. No sacred cows, no automatic
deference to old friends or treaties if
they cost us our edge in a world where
naked power, not paper, actually
governs. With that, let's start with a
look at the approach to Greenland. Trump
has made it clear. Greenland has to be
ours for national security reasons. Why?
Because the Arctic is ideal for watching
Russian launched ballistic missiles.
Both the Russians and the Chinese have
boats and submarines in the area. And
due to climate change, enough ice is
melting to potentially open up an
entirely new shipping lane that all
major powers will want to control. And
the US will want to do it first so they
can claim it for both economic and
[music] security reasons. Greenland also
sits on massive rare earth elements
critical for tech, EVs, batteries,
defense systems, all the stuff that
China currently dominates globally and
uses as leverage against the US. If
Russia or China were to gain sufficient
influence or control over Greenland,
they would have a base of operations
from which to project power over all of
North America. Therefore, Trump sees it
as a non-negotiable.
Secure the Arctic now before someone
else does. Sovereignty of Denmark, who
cares? It's America first. Next, let's
look at Venezuela. The flash invasion
and seizure of Maduro is not about
helping the Venezuelan people. At least,
not only that, it's a strategic move to
block out China and shore up the petro
dollar. [music] Venezuela supplies a
global shadow fleet of tankers that
allow countries to get around US
sanctions. [music] This includes a
meaningful chunk of China's crude
imports. And because it's sanctioned,
China gets it at a cheap discount. By
taking control, the US denies China that
cheap flow, disrupts the shadow fleet,
forces Cuba and other South American
nations back into line, and reinforces
the Monroe Doctrine. This hemisphere is
ours and China and other adversaries are
no longer allowed to build relationships
here. Next, let's look at Iran. Support
for protesters, threats of strikes,
regime change pressure, none of is
[music] primarily altruistic. It's more
oil leverage and support for a close
ally. Iran supplies China with up to 20
to 23% of its crude imports at peak
times. And China absorbs a staggering 80
plus percent of Iran's total exported
oil. That is insane. Cutting that flow
not only hits Beijing hard, it
effectively cripples Iran, enemy number
one of Israel, one of our strongest
allies. [music] As a bonus, if the
regime falls, the largest funer of
global terrorism falls, and you open the
opportunity for a friendlier regime to
take its place. And this pattern of
aggression also extends to Cuba and
shockingly at least in rhetoric to
Mexico. Even Canada has been harassed
and hit with tariff threats. And given
that Greenland is actually a territory
of Denmark, even the EU is getting
bullied. The problem with a doctrine
that is largely only about first order
consequences is that it feels a little
like a husband who gets from his wife
what he wants, not because she agrees,
but because she's afraid. As John Wayne
Bobbit will attest. That strategy might
work in the short term, but it can have
serious consequences when you next fall
asleep. The Maduro move has spiked
tensions with Russia and China, who are
already coordinating very [music]
closely. And every country watching will
be thinking some variation of if the US
can do this to Venezuela and Denmark,
what's stopping them from targeting us
if we have something they want? Denmark
is threatening to arm up and fight.
Germany is openly discussing ditching US
arms deals and the EU is talking about
NATO independence from the US. When
you're bullying people, do not expect
them to ride to your rescue when things
get tough. Our actions risk isolating
us. It might not be a big deal today,
but the risks will compound if we're not
careful. All of this only serves to
accelerate the very thing that Trump
fears that all of us should fear.
nations ditching dollar reliance,
building alternative payment systems,
and hedging against US dominance in
general. [music] It's not going to
unravel overnight, but it will unravel
eventually. And our actions will
determine whether that happens slowly or
very rapidly, especially if there is
additional strain on the US economy and
we are forced to take on more debt and
print more money. The America First
strategy is already prompting Trump to
push for a massive military budget
increase. He's proposing a $1.5
trillion budget in 2027. That's up from
900 billion. And while our budget is
already massively underwater, our
interest payments are already the second
biggest line item in the budget. And
fraud is bleeding millions from
taxpayers. If growth doesn't materialize
fast, all we will have done is hasten
the dollar's death and [music] America's
bankruptcy. And instead of having allies
that want to help, we'll have a bunch of
bullied former allies that are cheering
on our demise. And the cherry on top,
all of this creates so much uncertainty
about the future. And markets, a
necessary escape from inflation,
absolutely despise uncertainty. One
brash move too many. And the bubbles
that have already formed are going to
burst violently. [music] Massive
suffering follows. Recessions, job
losses, wealth destruction, and a whole
lot more. The world is already a
tinderbox. The Russia Ukraine war grinds
on. Israel and Gaza still simmering in
the background. China vows to take
Taiwan by 2027. And we have historic
defense promises. Venezuela's new
leadership is fragile at best. Cuba's
economy is collapsing. Iran's protest
could topple the regime days, weeks. I'm
talking near-term. Japan's economy is
flashing red. Alberta is even voting on
seceding from Canada. Europe continues
its decline. And the mac daddy of all
the risks on the horizon, AI. AI is
transforming everything faster than
people are going to be able to sensibly
adapt. [music] And none of that is to
mention the massive internal strife
ripping at America right now. As you
would expect, by the way, from any
country with 123% debt to GDP. That's
bad in normal times. But for an empire
at risk of overextending itself and
alienating its allies, it could turn
catastrophic very quickly. Now, all of
that's the landscape. But as a reminder,
Trump's actions aren't random. He has a
goal. Return America to prosperity
through growth and by re-establishing
ourselves as the dominant global
superpower. That's what we are. And he
does have a strategy. America first.
Whether it works or not is a totally
different story. But knowing which way
the wind is blowing should be enough for
you to understand how to adjust your
sales. I don't know that we're going to
be able to walk America or the world
back from this incredibly precarious
moment. I am cautiously optimistic about
our ability to grow. I am cautiously
optimistic about people's desire to have
things normalize, for people to yearn to
breathe free, for people to simply want
their children's lives to be better than
theirs. I hope that that calms
everything down and brings everybody
back together. But I have learned one
immutable truth in my life. Only the
paranoid survive. You need to have a
strategy. This time is incredibly
uncertain. The path that we're on is
incredibly uncertain and if we want to
avoid the debt spiral, we are going to
have to make incredibly careful
decisions that allow us to move forward
[music] as a country. But regardless of
all of that, as a reminder, you can win.
Even if the game is rigged against you,
you can still win if you know how to
play. and I want to focus everybody's
attention on the things that you [music]
can do. So, if you want to learn how to
adjust your sales wisely, join me live
Monday, Wednesdays, Fridays at 7:00 a.m.
Pacific time where we talk about this
kind of stuff live together as a
community. You can either just chill in
the community or actively argue. Either
way, I hope to see you there. Till then,
my friends, be legendary. Take care.
Peace. If you like this conversation,
check out this episode to learn more.
The US recently invaded Venezuela and
arrested their sitting president in the
dead [music] of night. If someone did
that to us, I guarantee we would
consider it an act of war. Many in the